Climate Analytics | Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers…

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class="container"><nav class="mb-12 lg:mb-24" aria-label="Breadcrumb"><ol class="flex flex-nowrap text-xs uppercase text-white"><li class="truncate"> <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/" class="font-bold hover:underline">Homepage</a></li><li class="truncate"> <span class="ml-1 opacity-60" aria-hidden="true"> > </span> <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications" class="font-bold hover:underline">Publications</a></li><li class="truncate"> <span class="ml-1 opacity-60" aria-hidden="true"> > </span> <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/rapid-urbanisation-and-climate-change-key-drivers-of-dramatic-flood-impacts-in-nepal" class="font-bold hover:underline">Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal</a></li></ol></nav> <date class="block mb-6">17 October, 2024</date><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-12 "><h1 class="text-3xl font-bold max-w-screen-xl sm:text-4xl md:text-5xl lg:text-7xl text-white" x-data x-init="$el.animate([ { transform: 'translateY(-100px)', opacity: 0 }, { transform: 'translateY(0px)', opacity: 1 } ],{ duration: 700, easing: 'ease-out' })" x-cloak > Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal</h1><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-4 max-w-3xl"><p class="text-sm font-bold uppercase leading-none">Authors</p><div class="prose prose-p:leading-loose prose-a:leading-loose max-w-none prose-white"><p>Mariam Zachariah, Roshan Jha, Arpita Mondal, Surendra Rauniyar, Maja Vahlberg, Bibek Kayastha, Emmanuel Raju, Nick Baumgart, <a target="_blank" href="https://climateanalytics.org/team/fahad-saeed" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fahad Saeed</a>, Friederike Otto (with <a target="_blank" href="https://climateanalytics.org/team/manjeet-dhakal" rel="noreferrer noopener">Manjeet Dhakal</a> as a review author)</p></div></div><div class="flex flex-col items-center space-y-8 lg:flex-row lg:justify-between lg:space-y-0"><div class="flex flex-col space-y-3 md:flex-row md:space-y-0 md:space-x-3"> <a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/115192" class="inline-block transition duration-200 ease-linear rounded-xl text-center bg-green text-white hover:bg-green-darker px-5 py-3 text-lg" > First published</a></div><div class="flex flex-col items-center space-y-4 lg:flex-row lg:space-x-12 lg:space-y-0"><div class="flex items-center space-x-4 text-white"><p class="text-sm font-bold uppercase leading-none">Share</p><nav><ul class="flex items-center space-x-4"><li class="text-2xl leading-none"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://climateanalytics.org/publications/rapid-urbanisation-and-climate-change-key-drivers-of-dramatic-flood-impacts-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <i class="fab fa-x-twitter"></i> </a></li><li class="text-2xl leading-none"> <a 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href="/publications/download-ris?publicationId=142863" download class="flex items-center space-x-3 uppercase text-sm" > <span class="text-sm font-bold uppercase leading-none">Download citation</span> <i class="text-xl fa-solid fa-download"></i> </a></div></div></div></div><picture class="absolute inset-0 w-full h-full -z-1"><source srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-gsn-travel-28359722.jpg?v=1729151682" width="800" height="auto" media="(max-width: 799px)"><source srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_1200xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-gsn-travel-28359722.jpg?v=1729151682" width="1200" height="auto" media="(min-width: 800px) and (max-width: 1199px)"><source srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_1600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-gsn-travel-28359722.jpg?v=1729151683" width="1600" height="auto" media="(min-width: 1200px) and (max-width: 1599px)"><source srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_2000xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-gsn-travel-28359722.jpg?v=1729151683" width="2000" height="auto" media="(min-width: 1600px)"><img src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-gsn-travel-28359722.jpg?v=1729151682" width="800" height="auto" style="object-position: 50% 50%" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" alt="" fetchpriority="high" crossorigin loading="lazy"></picture></div><div class="pb-12 lg:pb-24 mt-12 lg:mt-24 overflow-x-clip"><div class="container"><div class="text-left prose lg:prose-lg prose-headings:font-normal prose-a:underline prose-a:text-primary prose-headings:text-primary prose-dark-grey content mx-auto max-w-md md:max-w-lg lg:max-w-xl xl:max-w-3xl 2xl:max-w-4xl"><p>The Metropolitan areas of Kathmandu and Lalitpur are highly exposed to flooding due to their geographic location along a valley with few natural drainage points. Rapid urbanisation (386% increase in built up areas between 1990-2020) and deforestation (28% reduction in forest cover from 1989-2019) in the Kathmandu Valley has disrupted natural water processes, increasing surface runoff and overwhelming drainage systems, while building on flood plains and near rivers has increased the exposure of people and assets to floods.</p><p>Nepal has seen many heavy rainfall events followed by severe flooding in the past. Analysing different observation-based datasets, the relative magnitude of the observed event compared to previous years varies between datasets, making it difficult to estimate how rare the event is in today’s climate. According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Government of Nepal, the rainfall recorded in several stations during the event was the highest in 54 years of measurements (DHM, 08 October 2024); therefore we use a rounded estimate of 1-in-50 years to define the event for the rest of the analysis.</p><p>To assess if human-induced climate change influenced the heavy rainfall, we first determine if there is a trend in the observations. Our best estimate is that heavy 3-day rainfall events have become about 18% more intense and just over twice more likely, but there are substantial differences between the datasets, which limit our confidence in the accuracy of these figures. The trends are stronger in the satellite era, from 1980 onwards.</p><p>To quantify the role of human-induced climate change we analyse climate models with high resolution that are in principle able to simulate the influence of the mountains on rainfall in the study region. Overall, the available climate models indicate a 10% increase in intensity compared to a 1.3C cooler climate, and an increase in likelihood of about 70%. Under a future warming scenario where the global temperature is 2°C higher than pre-industrial levels, climate models predict even heavier 3-day rainfall events, with a further expected increase of about 3% in rainfall intensity. As only the subset of models showing the smallest change in rainfall with global warming have future simulations available, this is a conservative estimate.</p><p>Given the small mountainous region with complex rainfall-climate dynamics, there is a high level of uncertainty in the results. However, the increase in heavy 3-day rainfall events is in line with a large and growing body of scientific evidence on large-scale extreme rainfall in a warming world, including in Nepal, and the physical understanding that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, leading to heavier downpours.</p><p>The floods were well forecasted by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), but warning messages did not focus on the impacts to the Kathmandu Valley specifically, and it’s unclear to what extent the warnings led to early action. The Kathmandu Valley is also not the focus of flood risk management efforts in Nepal, as other regions (notably Terai) generally have been classified as high risk and have historically seen highly impactful floods. This presents an opportunity to further scale anticipatory action systems that have been shown to be cost effective in other parts of Nepal to cover highly exposed urban centres like the Kathmandu Valley.</p><p>The 2015 Gorkha earthquake destabilised hillsides and weakened drainage infrastructure, while the COVID-19 pandemic affected the incomes of low and middle class individuals representing long-term compounding factors that increased vulnerability to floods and landslides. Deforestation and rapid urbanisation expansion, especially into river floodplains, increased the number of people in the path of the flood waters. Comprehensive spatial planning, combined with disaster risk reduction and adaptation, effective policy enforcement, and increased public awareness, are crucial to mitigate flood risks across central and eastern Nepal, including the Kathmandu Valley.</p></div></div></div><div class="pb-12 lg:pb-24 overflow-x-clip"><div class="container"><div class="flex items-center justify-center"> <i class="text-green text-2xl fa-solid fa-tags mt-3"></i><ul class="flex flex-wrap space-x-3 space-y-3"><li class="mt-3 ml-3"> <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications?topic=climate-impacts-and-risks" class="inline-block px-4 uppercase bg-gray-300 hover:bg-gray-200 focus:bg-gray-200 transition-colors duration-150 py-3 text-sm"> Climate impacts and risks </a></li></ul></div></div></div><div class="pb-12 lg:pb-24 overflow-x-clip"><div class="container"><div class="relative grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-8 lg:gap-y-12 xl:gap-y-16"><div class="max-w-none prose lg:prose-lg xl:prose-xl "><h2 class="text-primary " > Publications</h2></div><div><div x-data="slider( { spaceBetween: 20, } , )" class="swiper relative pb-16 lg:!static lg:pb-0" ><div class="swiper-wrapper grid grid-flow-col "><div class="swiper-slide"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-8 lg:grid-cols-2 lg:gap-8"><div class="row-span-2"><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-1815242731" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/spatially-resolved-emulated-annual-temperature-projections-for-overshoot-pathways"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="401" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-alteredsnaps-14920362.jpg?v=1732193431 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-alteredsnaps-14920362.jpg?v=1732193363 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-alteredsnaps-14920362.jpg?v=1732193431" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-1815242731" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-1988743932" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/the-role-of-northern-forests-in-limiting-warming-to-1-5-c"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="450" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/aaron-burden-G_1V58E0TyM-unsplash.jpg?v=1729675659%2C0.5093%2C0.7859 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/aaron-burden-G_1V58E0TyM-unsplash.jpg?v=1729599743%2C0.5093%2C0.7859 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/aaron-burden-G_1V58E0TyM-unsplash.jpg?v=1729675660%2C0.5093%2C0.7859" alt="Aaron burden G 1 V58 E0 Ty M unsplash" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50.93% 78.59%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-1988743932" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-278504846" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/seasonal-forecast-of-two-metre-temperature-and-precipitation-in-tanzania-a-hybrid-cluster-and-point-by-point-machine-learning-approach"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="401" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-londo-28975776.jpg?v=1729684307 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-londo-28975776.jpg?v=1729684213 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-londo-28975776.jpg?v=1729684308" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-278504846" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div></div></div><div class="swiper-slide"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-8 lg:grid-cols-2 lg:gap-8"><div class="row-span-2"><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-1075421779" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/overconfidence-in-climate-overshoot"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="399" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/annie-spratt-JZfOkBZDoco-unsplash.jpg?v=1728486305 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/annie-spratt-JZfOkBZDoco-unsplash.jpg?v=1728486156 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/annie-spratt-JZfOkBZDoco-unsplash.jpg?v=1728486305" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-1075421779" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Overconfidence in climate overshoot</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, some climate damages triggered at peak warming, including rising sea levels, will be irreversible, according to a new study published today in <i>Nature.</i></p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-770523934" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/solar-geoengineering-a-note-to-inform-discussions-on-physical-climate-impacts-risks-and-governance-issues"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="800" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/stacey-koenitz-kSY5T6js2KE-unsplash.jpg?v=1726646165 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/stacey-koenitz-kSY5T6js2KE-unsplash.jpg?v=1726581780 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/stacey-koenitz-kSY5T6js2KE-unsplash.jpg?v=1726646165" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-770523934" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-447366733" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/how-can-event-attribution-science-underpin-financial-decisions-on-loss-and-damage"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="338" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/matt-howard-eAKDzK4lo4o-unsplash.jpg?v=1724768219 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/matt-howard-eAKDzK4lo4o-unsplash.jpg?v=1724767553 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/matt-howard-eAKDzK4lo4o-unsplash.jpg?v=1724768219" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-447366733" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, funding for loss and damage is an acute need. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div></div></div><div class="swiper-slide"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-8 lg:grid-cols-2 lg:gap-8"><div class="row-span-2"><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-1269608700" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/achieving-net-zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions-critical-to-limit-climate-tipping-risks"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="425" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/usgs-9Ej97rGUlQk-unsplash.jpg?v=1722515029 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/usgs-9Ej97rGUlQk-unsplash.jpg?v=1722507076 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/usgs-9Ej97rGUlQk-unsplash.jpg?v=1722515029" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-1269608700" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>Current climate policies are putting Earth on a path to a high risk of triggering climatic tipping points – even if temperatures return to below 1.5°C of global warming after a period of overshoot. A new study finds that the risk of crossing these thresholds increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates above 2.0 °C. These risks can be minimised if stringent emissions reductions are taken in the next decade, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions are met and maintained.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-1201334145" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/evaluating-the-near-and-long-term-role-of-carbon-dioxide-removal-in-meeting-global-climate-objectives"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="400" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-lauripoldre-16983197.jpg?v=1721203078 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-lauripoldre-16983197.jpg?v=1721127271 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/pexels-lauripoldre-16983197.jpg?v=1721203079" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-1201334145" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder. <br /></p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-807414720" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/increasing-april-may-rainfall-el-niño-and-high-vulnerability-behind-deadly-flooding-in-afghanistan-pakistan-and-iran"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="400" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/shoaib-khan-E8nOAkkjQMY-unsplash.jpg?v=1718270451 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/shoaib-khan-E8nOAkkjQMY-unsplash.jpg?v=1718269969 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/shoaib-khan-E8nOAkkjQMY-unsplash.jpg?v=1718270451" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-807414720" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>This April and May, large regions of central Asia were hit by a series of storms resulting in heavy downpours and flash flooding.<strong> </strong>Researchers assessed what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the floods.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div></div></div><div class="swiper-slide"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-8 lg:grid-cols-2 lg:gap-8"><div class="row-span-2"><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-211179065" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/a-review-of-loss-and-damage-in-the-caribbean-1994-to-2024"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="400" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/066.jpg?v=1717521161 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/066.jpg?v=1717514406 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/066.jpg?v=1717521161" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-211179065" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> A review of loss and damage in the Caribbean (1994 to 2024)</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>Loss and damage from climate change has been the lived reality of Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) for decades. Despite efforts to adapt, it is reversing development gains, leaving lasting financial stress, and causing irreparable damage, including the loss of cultural heritage. This report is the first to provide a systematic overview of how Caribbean countries are framing and reporting on loss and damage.<br /></p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-959469057" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/earth-virtualization-engines-eve"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="399" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/nasa-Q1p7bh3SHj8-unsplash.jpg?v=1714985152 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/nasa-Q1p7bh3SHj8-unsplash.jpg?v=1714984243 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/nasa-Q1p7bh3SHj8-unsplash.jpg?v=1714985152" alt="" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 50% 50%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-959469057" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Earth Virtualisation Engines (EVE)</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>The authors propose creating an international federation of research institutions that improve the quality and accessibility of Earth systems data. The purpose is to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.<br /></p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div><div class=""><article class="transition relative pt-8 px-8 text-white group h-full pb-20 delay-200 duration-500" x-data="{ shown: false, }" x-intersect="shown = true" :class="{ 'translate-y-0 opacity-100': shown, 'translate-y-10 opacity-0': !shown }" x-cloak aria-labelledby="card-heading-1328501749" > <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/heavy-precipitation-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-the-uae-and-oman-becoming-an-increasing-threat-as-the-climate-warms"><div class="absolute inset-0 -z-1 after:absolute after:inset-0 after:bg-black/40 lg:after:bg-transparent lg:after:bg-gradient-to-b lg:after:from-black/40 lg:group-hover:after:bg-black/40 lg:after:transition-colors"> <img width="600" height="337" srcset="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_400xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/DubailFloodsSeenfromSpace_CopernicusSentinel2_2024-04-29-124042_txxj.png?v=1714394812%2C0.3277%2C0.5232 400w,https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_800xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/DubailFloodsSeenfromSpace_CopernicusSentinel2_2024-04-29-124042_txxj.png?v=1714394634%2C0.3277%2C0.5232 800w" sizes="(min-width: 640px) 50vw,(min-width: 1280px) 33.33vw,100vw" src="https://ca1-clm.edcdn.com/masthead/_600xAUTO_crop_center-center_none/DubailFloodsSeenfromSpace_CopernicusSentinel2_2024-04-29-124042_txxj.png?v=1714394813%2C0.3277%2C0.5232" alt="Dubai 17/4/24. Areas of flooding in turquoise. Source: Copernicus Sentinel-2 (CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO)" class="w-full h-full object-cover bg-gray-100" style="object-position: 32.77% 52.32%" crossorigin loading="lazy"></div><div class="space-y-4"><h2 id="card-heading-1328501749" class="font-bold text-lg lg:text-xl xl:text-2xl"> Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms</h2><div class="lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 lg:text-sm 2xl:text-base"><p>Researchers have assessed the extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the flooding in the United Arab Emirates and the northern parts of Oman in April 14–15 2024. The region was hit by exceptionally heavy rainfall causing massive disruption in infrastructure and public life in the area and leading to at least 20 fatalities in Oman and four in the UAE.</p></div></div><i class="absolute right-8 fa-light fa-arrow-right lg:opacity-0 lg:transition-opacity lg:group-hover:opacity-100 bottom-6 text-2xl lg:text-3xl"></i> </a></article></div></div></div></div><div class="swiper-pagination absolute bottom-0 swiper-pagination lg:top-0 lg:right-0 lg:bottom-auto lg:left-auto lg:w-auto"></div><div class="swiper-prev transition duration-300 cursor-pointer"></div><div class="swiper-next transition duration-300 cursor-pointer"></div></div></div></div></div></div></article></main></div><aside class="relative py-12 bg-primary text-white overflow-hidden"><div class="relative container z-10"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-6 lg:grid-cols-2 lg:gap-x-12 lg:gap-y-0"><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-6 lg:max-w-[500px] lg:gap-y-12"> <img width="140" height="36" src="https://ia1-clm.edcdn.com/dist/images/interface/logo-white.svg" alt="Climate Analytics" class="block mb-4 w-56 lg:mb-0 lg:w-64" crossorigin loading="lazy" ><div class="lg:grid lg:grid-cols-1 lg:gap-y-6"><div class="hidden text-2xl font-bold lg:block"><p>Delivering cutting-edge science, analysis and support to accelerate climate action and keep warming below 1.5°C.</p></div><div> <a href="tel:+4930259229520" class="block text-lg"> +49 30 259229520 </a><a href="mailto:contact@climateanalytics.org" class="block text-lg"> contact@climateanalytics.org </a></div></div><ul class="flex space-x-3 unstyled lg:hidden"><li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/ClimateAnalytics" class="text-4xl" rel="external" title="Facebook"><i class="fab fa-facebook"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://twitter.com/ca_latest" class="text-4xl" rel="external" title="Twitter"><i class="fab fa-x-twitter"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/climate-analytics-ggmbh" class="text-4xl" rel="external" title="LinkedIn"><i class="fab fa-linkedin"></i></a></li></ul><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-y-6 text-lg"><p class="font-bold">Sign up to our mailing list</p><form action="https://climateanalytics.us12.list-manage.com/subscribe/post?u=9e4cf5c69a12b67305cea7da4&id=85e903aa7a&f_id=00c9bfe0f0" method="post" target="_blank" novalidate > <input type="text" name="b_9e4cf5c69a12b67305cea7da4_85e903aa7a" tabindex="-1" value="" class="sr-only" ><label for="mce-EMAIL" class="sr-only">Email address</label><div class="flex space-x-4"> <input type="email" name="EMAIL" placeholder="Email address" id="mce-EMAIL" class="px-3 grow text-sm text-black" required ><button type="submit" class="inline-block transition duration-200 ease-linear rounded-xl text-center bg-green text-white hover:bg-green-darker px-4 py-3">Sign up</button></div></form><p class="text-xs"> By signing up for our newsletter you agree to our <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/terms" class="underline">Ts & Cs</a> and <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/privacy-statement" class="underline">Privacy Policy</a></p></div></div><div class="hidden flex-col space-y-6 lg:flex"><div class="flex items-center justify-between"><p class="text-2xl font-bold">Join the conversation...</p><ul class="flex space-x-3 unstyled"><li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/ClimateAnalytics" class="text-4xl" rel="external" title="Facebook"><i class="fab fa-facebook"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://twitter.com/ca_latest" class="text-4xl" rel="external" title="Twitter"><i class="fab fa-x-twitter"></i></a></li><li><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/climate-analytics-ggmbh" class="text-4xl" rel="external" title="LinkedIn"><i class="fab fa-linkedin"></i></a></li></ul></div><div class="relative grow"><div class="absolute inset-0 overflow-y-auto"> <a class="twitter-timeline" href="https://twitter.com/CA_Latest?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">Tweets by CA_Latest</a> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </div></div></div></div></div><img width="393" height="746" src="https://ia1-clm.edcdn.com/dist/images/interface/ancillary-background.svg" alt="Climate Analytics" class="absolute top-1/2 left-1/2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 w-[150%] h-[150%] object-cover object-center lg:right-0 lg:translate-x-0 lg:w-auto lg:h-[150%] lg:object-contain" crossorigin loading="lazy" ></aside><footer class="sticky top-[100vh] bg-gray-50 pt-6 pb-[5.5rem] lg:py-8"><div class="container"><div class="grid gap-6 lg:gap-10 lg:grid-flow-col lg:items-center lg:justify-between"><div class="text-center lg:text-left"><p class="text-gray-700"> <small class="text-sm"> Copyright © 2024 Climate Analytics. 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Climate Analytics | Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers…