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} #templateSearchResultTerm { font-weight: bold; } #resultsSearchHeader { display: block !important; } #scrolltopmodal { font-size: 3.0em; margin-top: 0 !important; margin-right: 15px; } @-webkit-keyframes animation_dots_breath { 50% { -webkit-transform: scale(1); transform: scale(1); opacity: 1; } 100% { opacity: 0; } } @keyframes animation_dots_breath { 50% { -webkit-transform: scale(1); transform: scale(1); opacity: 1; } 100% { opacity: 0; } } @media (min-width: 768px) and (max-width: 991px) { #templateSearchResultModal .modal-dialog { max-width: 90%; } } </style> <script> if(document.querySelector('meta[name="global_moBaseURL"]').content == "https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/") FINDER_URL = document.querySelector('meta[name="global_moBaseURL"]').content.replace('meetingorganizer', 'finder-app')+"search/library.php"; else FINDER_URL = document.querySelector('meta[name="global_moBaseURL"]').content.replace('meetingorganizer', 'finder')+"search/library.php"; SEARCH_INPUT = document.getElementById('search_query_solr'); SEARCH_INPUT_MODAL = document.getElementById('search_query_modal'); searchRunning = false; offset = 20; INITIAL_OFFSET = 20; var MutationObserver = window.MutationObserver || window.WebKitMutationObserver || window.MozMutationObserver; const targetNodeSearchModal = document.getElementById("templateSearchResultModal"); const configSearchModal = { attributes: true, childList: true, subtree: true }; // Callback function to execute when mutations are observed const callbackSearchModal = (mutationList, observer) => { for (const mutation of mutationList) { if (mutation.type === "childList") { // console.log("A child node has been added or removed."); picturesGallery(); } else if (mutation.type === "attributes") { // console.log(`The ${mutation.attributeName} attribute was modified.`); } } }; // Create an observer instance linked to the callback function const observer = new MutationObserver(callbackSearchModal); // Start observing the target node for configured mutations observer.observe(targetNodeSearchModal, configSearchModal); function _addEventListener() { document.getElementById('search_query_solr').addEventListener('keypress', (e) => { if (e.key === 'Enter') _runSearch(); }); document.getElementById('start_site_search_solr').addEventListener('click', (e) => { _runSearch(); e.stopPropagation(); e.stopImmediatePropagation(); return false; }); $('#templateSearchResultModal').scroll(function() { if ($(this).scrollTop()) { $('#scrolltopmodal:hidden').stop(true, true).fadeIn().css("display","inline-block"); } else { $('#scrolltopmodal').stop(true, true).fadeOut(); } }); } function scrollModalTop() { $('#templateSearchResultModal').animate({ scrollTop: 0 }, 'slow'); // $('#templateSearchResultModal').scrollTop(0); } function picturesGallery() { $('body').off('click', '.paperlist-avatar img'); $('body').off('click', '#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img'); searchPaperListAvatar = []; searchPaperListAvatarThumb = []; search_pswpElement = document.querySelectorAll('.pswp')[0]; if (typeof search_gallery != "undefined") { search_gallery = null; } $('body').on('click', '#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img', function (e) { if(searchPaperListAvatarThumb.length === 0 && searchPaperListAvatar.length === 0) { $('#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img').each(function () { var webversion = $(this).attr('data-web'); var width = $(this).attr('data-width'); var height = $(this).attr('data-height'); var caption = $(this).attr('data-caption'); var figure = { src: webversion, w: width, h: height, title: caption }; searchPaperListAvatarThumb.push($(this)[0]); searchPaperListAvatar.push(figure); }); } var target = $(this); var index = $('#templateSearchResultContainer .paperlist-avatar img').index(target); var options = { showHideOpacity:false, bgOpacity:0.8, index:index, spacing:0.15, history: false, focus:false, getThumbBoundsFn: function(index) { var thumbnail = searchPaperListAvatarThumb[index]; var pageYScroll = window.pageYOffset || document.documentElement.scrollTop; var rect = thumbnail.getBoundingClientRect(); return {x:rect.left, y:rect.top + pageYScroll, w:rect.width}; } }; search_gallery = new PhotoSwipe( search_pswpElement, PhotoSwipeUI_Default,[searchPaperListAvatar[index]],options); search_gallery.init(); }); } function showError(code, msg) { console.error(code, msg); $("#templateSearchLoadingModal").modal("hide"); switch(code) { case -3: // http request fail case -2: // invalid MO response case 4: // CORS case 1: // project $("#templateSearchErrorModal1").modal({}); break; case -1: // timeout $("#templateSearchErrorModal2").modal({}); break; case 2: // empty term $("#templateSearchErrorModal3").modal({}); break; case 3: // DOS $("#templateSearchErrorModal4").modal({}); break; default: $("#templateSearchErrorModal1").modal({}); break; } } function clearForm() { var myFormElement = document.getElementById("library-filters") var elements = myFormElement.elements; $(".form-check-input").prop('checked', false).change().parent().removeClass('active'); for(i=0; i<elements.length; i++) { field_type = elements[i].type.toLowerCase(); switch(field_type) { case "text": case "password": case "textarea": case "hidden": elements[i].value = ""; break; case "radio": case "checkbox": if (elements[i].checked) { elements[i].checked = false; } break; case "select-one": case "select-multi": elements[i].selectedIndex = -1; break; default: break; } } } function generateShowMoreButton(offset, term) { var code = '<button aria-label="ShowMore" id="showMore" class="btn btn-success float-right mr-2" data-offset="' + offset + '">Show more</button>'; return code; } function hideModal(id) { $("#"+id).modal('hide'); } function showModal(id) { $("#"+id).modal({}); } function prepareForPhotoSwipe() { searchPaperListAvatar = []; searchPaperListAvatarThumb = []; search_pswpElement = document.querySelectorAll('.pswp')[0]; } function _sendAjax(projectID, term) { let httpRequest = new XMLHttpRequest(); if(searchRunning) { console.log("Search running"); return; } if (!httpRequest) { console.error("Giving up :( Cannot create an XMLHTTP instance"); showError(-1); return false; } // httpRequest.timeout = 20000; // time in milliseconds httpRequest.withCredentials = false; httpRequest.ontimeout = (e) => { showError(-1, "result timeout"); searchRunning = false; }; httpRequest.onreadystatechange = function() { if (httpRequest.readyState === XMLHttpRequest.DONE) { searchRunning = false; if (httpRequest.status === 200) { let rs = JSON.parse(httpRequest.responseText); if(rs) { if(rs.isError) { showError(rs.errorCode, rs.errorMessage); } else { let html = rs.resultHTMLs; $("#modal_search_query").val(rs.term); $("#templateSearchResultTerm").html(rs.term); $("#templateSearchResultNr").html(rs.resultsNr); $("#templateRefineSearch").html(rs.filter); if(rs.filter == false) { console.log('filter empty'); $("#refineSearchModal").removeClass('d-block').addClass('d-none'); } if(rs.resultsNr==1) $("#templateSearchResultNrPlural").hide(); else $("#templateSearchResultNrPlural").show(); if(rs.resultsNr==0) { hideModal('templateSearchLoadingModal'); $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(""); $("#templateSearchResultContainerEmpty").removeClass("d-none"); showModal('templateSearchResultModal'); } else { if((rs.resultsNr - offset)>0) { html = html + generateShowMoreButton(offset, term); } $("#templateSearchResultContainerEmpty").addClass("d-none"); if( offset == INITIAL_OFFSET) { hideModal('templateSearchLoadingModal'); $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(html); showModal('templateSearchResultModal'); } else { $('#showMore').remove(); startHtml = $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(); $("#templateSearchResultContainer").html(startHtml + html); } // prepareForPhotoSwipe(); } } } else { showError(-2, "invalid result"); } } else { showError(-3, "There was a problem with the request."); } } }; if(offset == INITIAL_OFFSET) { hideModal('templateSearchResultModal'); showModal('templateSearchLoadingModal'); } httpRequest.open("GET", FINDER_URL+"?project="+projectID+"&term="+encodeURI(term)+((offset>INITIAL_OFFSET)?("&offset="+(offset-INITIAL_OFFSET)) : "")); httpRequest.send(); 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var queryString = $('#library-filters').serialize(); var term = _searchTrimInput($('#modal_search_query').val()); term+='&'+queryString; if(term.length > 0) { _sendAjax(projectID, term); } else { showError(2, 'Empty search term') } } if(document.getElementById('search_query_solr')) { run(); } </script> </div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </header>  <main class="one-column version-2023"> <div id="content" class="container"> <div id="page_content_container" class="CMSCONTAINER row"> <div class="col"> <div class="level2Toc"> <div class="grid-container"> <div class="grid-100"> <div class="tab co-angel-left hide-on-desktop"></div> <div class="tab co-angel-right hide-on-desktop"></div> <div class="mobile-citation"> <ul class="tab-navigation no-styling"> <li class="tab0.recent active"><nobr><a href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/recent_papers.html">Recent</a></nobr></li><li class="tab5.byTopics hide-on-mobile"><nobr><a href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/by_topics.html">By topics</a></nobr></li><li class="tab6.byMsTypes hide-on-mobile"><nobr><a href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/by_ms_types.html">By MS types</a></nobr></li><li class="tab7.mostDownloaded"><nobr><a href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/most_downloaded.html">Most downloaded</a></nobr></li><li class="tab8.mostCommented"><nobr><a href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/most_commented.html">Most commented</a></nobr></li><li class="tab99.volumes"><nobr><a href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/volumes.html">Journal volumes</a></nobr></li><li class="tab100.discussion"><nobr><a href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/preprints.html">Preprints</a></nobr></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row no-gutters auto-fixed-top-forced"> <div class="col-12 mb-3 hide-on-fixed"> <div class="row no-gutters"> <div class="col-12"> The following lists the recent preprints posted on EGUsphere with WCD-related topics as well as final revised papers published recently in WCD. </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-12 hide-on-fixed"> <div class="grid-container show-js paperList-filter" style="display: none;"> <div class="grid-100"> <form class="radio" autocomplete="off"> <div class="row no-gutters"> <div class="col-auto mr-2"> <label> <input type="radio" class="show-hide" name="paperListFilter" checked="checked" value="all" data-bubble="true" data-show=".paperList-final,.paperList-discussion"> All papers </label> </div> <div class="col-auto mr-2"> <label> <input type="radio" class="show-hide" name="paperListFilter" value="final" data-bubble="true" data-show=".paperList-final" data-hide=".paperList-discussion"> Final revised papers only </label> </div> <div class="col-auto mr-2"> <label> <input type="radio" class="show-hide" name="paperListFilter" value="discussion" data-bubble="true" data-show=".paperList-discussion" data-hide=".paperList-final"> Preprints only </label> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> </div> <div class="col-12 pb-3 show-on-fixed recent-selection-wrapper" style="display:none;"> <button type="button" class="btn btn-primary">Filters</button> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 21 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-525/">Estimating return periods for extreme events in climate models through Ensemble Boosting</a> <div class="authors">Luna Bloin-Wibe, Robin Noyelle, Vincent Humphrey, Urs Beyerle, Reto Knutti, and Erich Fischer</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126986" data-show=".short_summary_126986" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126986" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126986" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Weather extremes have become more frequent due to climate change. It is therefore crucial to understand them, but since they are rarer than average weather, they are challenging to study. Ensemble Boosting (EB) is a tool that generates extreme climate model events efficiently, but without directly estimating their probability. Here, we present a method to recover these probabilities for a global climate model. EB can thus now be used to find extremes with meaningful statistical information. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126986" data-show=".short_summary_button_126986">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 21 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-666/">Southern Annular Mode Persistence and Westerly Jet: A Reassessment Using High-Resolution Global Models</a> <div class="authors">Ting-Chen Chen, Hugues Goosse, Matthias Aengenheyster, Kristian Strommen, Christopher Roberts, Malcolm Roberts, Rohit Ghosh, Jin-Song von Storch, and Stephy Libera</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-666,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-666,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_127179" data-show=".short_summary_127179" data-hide=".short_summary_button_127179" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_127179" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is a key driver of Southern Hemisphere climate variability, but global models often overestimate its persistence in summer. Using high-resolution models, we show this bias can be reduced, along with some improvements in jet latitude and likely a better-resolved eddy-mean flow feedback. Controlled experiments reveal the potential roles of sea surface temperature biases and ocean mesoscales, underscoring the complex mechanisms shaping SAM persistence. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_127179" data-show=".short_summary_button_127179">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 19 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-484/">Assessing stratospheric contributions to subseasonal predictions of precipitation after the 2018 SSW from SNAPSI</a> <div class="authors">Ying Dai, Peter Hitchcock, Amy H. Butler, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and William J. M. Seviour</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-484,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-484,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126937" data-show=".short_summary_126937" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126937" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126937" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Using a new database of S2S forecasts generated by SNAPSI, we find that with a successful forecast of the sudden warming, S2S models can capture the European precipitation signals after the 2018 SSW several weeks in advance. The findings indicate that the stratosphere represents an important source of S2S predictability for precipitation over Europe and call for consideration of stratospheric variability in hydrological prediction at S2S timescales. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126937" data-show=".short_summary_button_126937">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/211/2025/wcd-6-211-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/211/2025/wcd-6-211-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/211/2025/wcd-6-211-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="480" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 18 Feb 2025</div> <div class="highlightType" > | Highlight paper</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/211/2025/">Synoptic perspective on the conversion and maintenance of local available potential energy in extratropical cyclones</a> <div class="authors">Marc Federer, Lukas Papritz, Michael Sprenger, and Christian M. Grams</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 211–230, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-211-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_121783" data-show=".short_summary_121783" data-hide=".short_summary_button_121783" >Short summary</span> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle ce_comment_button_121783 ml-2" data-show=".ce_comment_121783" data-hide=".ce_comment_button_121783">Executive editor</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_121783" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Although extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic are among the most impactful midlatitude weather systems, their intensification is not entirely understood. Here, we explore how individual cyclones convert available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy and relate these conversions to the synoptic development of the cyclones. By combining potential vorticity thinking with a local APE framework, we offer a novel perspective on established concepts in dynamic meteorology. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_121783" data-show=".short_summary_button_121783">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="j-widget__max ce_comment ce_comment_121783 mt-3" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Executive editor</div> <div class="content"> This study provides a novel Lagrangian perspective on cyclogenesis grounded in atmospheric energetics. While the energetics framework is commonly used to understand the planetary scale circulation, its application to synoptic scales is less explored. The authors establish a close connection between extratropical baroclinic zones and local available potential energy, and further analyze air parcel trajectories to link conversions between potential and kinetic energy to specific features of the developing cyclones. The results of this study offer insights into the local, synoptic and large scale contributions to cyclogenesis that are relevant for diverse disciplines in atmospheric and climate sciences. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".ce_comment_121783" data-show=".ce_comment_button_121783">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/211/2025/wcd-6-211-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/211/2025/wcd-6-211-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/211/2025/wcd-6-211-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="480" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 18 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-521/">The Complex Teleconnections and Feedback Mechanisms between Mainland Indochina's Southwest Monsoon and Arctic Ocean Climate Variability</a> <div class="authors">Kyaw Than Oo, Aminu Dalhatu Datti, Kazora Jonah, and Brian Odhiambo Ayugi</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-521,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-521,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126982" data-show=".short_summary_126982" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126982" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126982" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> This study reveals a previously unexplored connection between the Mainland Indochina Southwest Monsoon (MSWM) and Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) variability in September. Using 40 years of data, it demonstrates how monsoonal heating influences large-scale atmospheric patterns like the NAO and NPO, ultimately affecting ASI distribution. These findings highlight tropical-extratropical climate linkages, offering new insights for climate modeling and Arctic climate change predictions. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126982" data-show=".short_summary_button_126982">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 18 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-273/">Probabilistic seasonal outlook for the rainy season over India by monitoring the onset dates using GPM IMERG satellite-based precipitation</a> <div class="authors">Chempampadam Balasubramannian Jayasankar and Vasubandhu Misra</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-273,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-273,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126672" data-show=".short_summary_126672" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126672" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126672" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> This study examines the potential of the seasonal predictably of the India's rainy season using remotely sensed precipitation data. Through monitoring the onset date of the Indian rainy season, we leverage its potential to harvest very seasonal predictability. This seasonal predictability is unmatched from other global teleconnections like ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126672" data-show=".short_summary_button_126672">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 17 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-76/">Diverse Causes of Extreme Rainfall in November 2023 over Equatorial Africa</a> <div class="authors">Hermann N. Nana, Masilin Gudoshava, Rom茅o S. Tanessong, Alain T. Tamoffo, and Derbetini A. Vondou</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-76,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-76,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126400" data-show=".short_summary_126400" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126400" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126400" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> The results of this study show that November 2023 extreme rainfall were controlled by several factors, including strong sea surface temperature anomalies in Niño-3.4, North Tropical Atlantic, Equatorial Atlantic and Indian ocean dipole regions, changes in zonal winds, the Walker circulation, the moisture flux and its divergence, and the easterly jets. The information we derive can be used to support risk assessment in the region and to improve our resilience to ongoing climate change. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126400" data-show=".short_summary_button_126400">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/197/2025/wcd-6-197-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/197/2025/wcd-6-197-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/197/2025/wcd-6-197-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="492" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 13 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/197/2025/">Pacific Decadal Oscillation-driven interdecadal variability of snowfall over the Karakoram and the Western Himalayas</a> <div class="authors">Priya Bharati, Pranab Deb, and Kieran Mark Rainwater Hunt</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 197–210, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-197-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-197-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_123317" data-show=".short_summary_123317" data-hide=".short_summary_button_123317" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_123317" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Our study highlights that the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) enhanced winter snowfall in the Karakoram and the Western Himalayas (KH) from 1940 to 2022. This is driven by deep convection, adiabatic cooling, and a wave-like atmospheric pattern linked to the subtropical jet (STJ). The PDO–STJ relationship offers insights into decadal snowfall predictability in KH, emphasizing the PDO's role in regional climate dynamics. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_123317" data-show=".short_summary_button_123317">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/197/2025/wcd-6-197-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/197/2025/wcd-6-197-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/197/2025/wcd-6-197-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="492" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 10 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-218/">Tropical cyclone intensification and extratropical transition under alternate climate conditions: a case study of Hurricane Ophelia (2017)</a> <div class="authors">Marjolein Ribberink, Hylke de Vries, Nadia Bloemendaal, Michiel Baatsen, and Erik van Meijgaard</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-218,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-218,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126604" data-show=".short_summary_126604" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126604" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126604" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Hurricane Ophelia of October 2017 is a rare example of a strong post-tropical cyclone impacting Europe, an event that is expected to occur more frequently as our climate warms. This study examines the changes in structure, behaviour, and extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia under alternate climate forcing using a regional model. We find that in warmer climates the storm becomes stronger, larger, and maintains the characteristics of a tropical cyclone for longer than in cooler climates. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126604" data-show=".short_summary_button_126604">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/wcd-6-171-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/wcd-6-171-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/wcd-6-171-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="469" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 07 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/">A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere鈥搕roposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems</a> <div class="authors">Chaim I. Garfinkel, Zachary D. Lawrence, Amy H. Butler, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Irina Statnaia, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Gerbrand Koren, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzag眉ena, David Barriopedro, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la C谩mara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Judah Cohen, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Javier Garc铆a-Serrano, Neil P. Hindley, Martin Jucker, Hera Kim, Robert W. Lee, Simon H. Lee, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Inna Polichtchouk, Jian Rao, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 171–195, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-171-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_120998" data-show=".short_summary_120998" data-hide=".short_summary_button_120998" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_120998" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Variability in the extratropical stratosphere and troposphere is coupled, and because of the longer timescales characteristic of the stratosphere, this allows for a window of opportunity for surface prediction. This paper assesses whether models used for operational prediction capture these coupling processes accurately. We find that most processes are too weak; however downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is too strong. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_120998" data-show=".short_summary_button_120998">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/wcd-6-171-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/wcd-6-171-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/171/2025/wcd-6-171-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="469" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 03 Feb 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-115/">Seasonal Predictability of Vapor Pressure Deficit in the western United States</a> <div class="authors">Melissa Leah Breeden, Andrew Hoell, Rochelle Pauline Worsnop, John Robert Albers, Michael T. Hobbins, Rachel Maya Robinson, and Daniel James Vimont</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-115,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-115,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126456" data-show=".short_summary_126456" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126456" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126456" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> We explore the predictability of saturation vapor pressure deficit (VPD), a key indicator of wildfire danger, one to 18 months in advance. Seasonal VPD forecasts are generated using a statistical dynamical model that produces high VPD skill related to a long-term warming trend and sea surface temperatures. Understanding where forecast skill comes from is important to for improving forecast models, and this study shows the role of multiple unique processes in contributing to VPD forecasts. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126456" data-show=".short_summary_button_126456">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/151/2025/wcd-6-151-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/151/2025/wcd-6-151-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/151/2025/wcd-6-151-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="495" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 31 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/151/2025/">Frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm seasons in the extratropics</a> <div class="authors">Hanin Binder and Heini Wernli</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 151–170, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-151-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_123487" data-show=".short_summary_123487" data-hide=".short_summary_button_123487" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_123487" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> This study presents a systematic analysis of frequency anomalies and characteristics of extratropical cyclones during extremely wet, dry, windy, and calm winter and summer seasons in the extratropics based on 1050 years of present-day climate simulations. We show that anomalies in cyclone frequency, intensity, and stationarity are crucial to the occurrence of many extreme seasons and that these anomaly patterns exhibit substantial regional and seasonal variability. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_123487" data-show=".short_summary_button_123487">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/151/2025/wcd-6-151-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/151/2025/wcd-6-151-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/151/2025/wcd-6-151-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="495" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/131/2025/wcd-6-131-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/131/2025/wcd-6-131-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/131/2025/wcd-6-131-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="513" data-height="600" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 29 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/131/2025/">Two different perspectives on heatwaves within the Lagrangian framework</a> <div class="authors">Amelie Mayer and Volkmar Wirth</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 131–150, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-131-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_121620" data-show=".short_summary_121620" data-hide=".short_summary_button_121620" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_121620" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Although heatwaves are among the most dangerous weather-related hazards, their underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the formation of heatwaves in an air-parcel-based framework and distinguish the contributions from horizontal transport, vertical transport, and diabatic heating. We show that the results obtained depend profoundly on whether one compares the absolute contributions of the individual terms or, instead, their anomalies relative to climatology. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_121620" data-show=".short_summary_button_121620">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/131/2025/wcd-6-131-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/131/2025/wcd-6-131-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/131/2025/wcd-6-131-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="513" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="600" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="0"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 28 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-4115/">Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders</a> <div class="authors">Fiona Raphaela Spuler, Marlene Kretschmer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Yevgeniya Kovalchuk, and Theodore G. Shepherd</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4115,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4115,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 0 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126157" data-show=".short_summary_126157" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126157" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126157" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme events and can be leveraged to improve their predictability. In this paper, we introduce a generative machine learning method to identify dynamical drivers of a relevant impact variable in the form of targeted circulation regimes. Applying the method to study extreme precipitation over Morocco, we show that these regimes are more predictive of the impact while maintaining their own predictability and physical consistency. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126157" data-show=".short_summary_button_126157">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="1"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/113/2025/wcd-6-113-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/113/2025/wcd-6-113-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/113/2025/wcd-6-113-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="437" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 21 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/113/2025/">Surrogate-based model parameter optimization in simulations of the West African monsoon</a> <div class="authors">Matthias Fischer, Peter Knippertz, and Carsten Proppe</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 113–130, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-113-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-113-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_121534" data-show=".short_summary_121534" data-hide=".short_summary_button_121534" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_121534" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> The West African monsoon is vital for millions but difficult to represent with numerical models. Our research aims at improving monsoon simulations by optimizing three model parameters – entrainment rate, ice fall speed, and soil moisture evaporation – using an advanced surrogate-based multi-objective optimization framework. Results show that tuning these parameters can sometimes improve certain monsoon characteristics, however at the expense of others, highlighting the power of our approach. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_121534" data-show=".short_summary_button_121534">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/113/2025/wcd-6-113-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/113/2025/wcd-6-113-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/113/2025/wcd-6-113-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="437" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="1"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 21 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-4060/">The role of atmospheric large-scale patterns for recent warming periods in Greenland</a> <div class="authors">Florina Roana Schalamon, Sebastian Scher, Andreas Tr眉gler, Lea Hartl, Wolfgang Sch枚ner, and Jakob Abermann</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4060,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4060,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 1 comment)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_126087" data-show=".short_summary_126087" data-hide=".short_summary_button_126087" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_126087" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Atmospheric patterns influence the air temperature in Greenland. We investigate two warming periods, from 1922–1932 and 1993–2007, both showing similar temperature increases. Using a neural network-based clustering method, we defined predominant atmospheric patterns for further analysis. Our findings reveal that while the connection between these patterns and local air temperature remains stable, the distribution of patterns changes between the warming periods and the full period (1900–2015). </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_126087" data-show=".short_summary_button_126087">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="1"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 21 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-3950/">QBOi El Niño Southern Oscillation experiments: Assessing relationships between ENSO, MJO, and QBO</a> <div class="authors">Dillon Elsbury, Federico Serva, Julie M. Caron, Seung-Yoon Back, Clara Orbe, Jadwiga H. Richter, James A. Anstey, Neal Butchart, Chih-Chieh Chen, Javier Garc铆a-Serrano, Anne Glanville, Yoshio Kawatani, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Francois Lott, Hiroaki Naoe, Scott Osprey, Froila M. Palmeiro, Seok-Woo Son, Masakazu Taguchi, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, and Kohei Yoshida</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3950,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3950,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 2 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_125830" data-show=".short_summary_125830" data-hide=".short_summary_button_125830" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_125830" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> This study examines how the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a major tropical weather pattern, is influenced by persistent El Niño or La Niña sea surface temperature conditions during winter. Using a coordinated set of climate model experiments, we find that El Niño strengthens Kelvin waves, speeding up MJO propagation, while La Niña strengthens Rossby waves, slowing it down. Better understanding these interactions between the MJO and ocean helps us better understand natural climate variability. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_125830" data-show=".short_summary_button_125830">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="2"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 14 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-3998/">Summer Greenland Blocking in observations and in SEAS5.1 seasonal forecasts: robust trend or natural variability?</a> <div class="authors">Johanna Beckmann, Giorgia Di Capua, and Paolo Davini</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3998,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3998,</span> 2025</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 3 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_125995" data-show=".short_summary_125995" data-hide=".short_summary_button_125995" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_125995" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Greenland blocking, which enhances ice sheet melting, has increased, but climate models fail to capture this trend. Analysis using ERA5 data and SEAS5.1 forecasts shows model improvements help but miss the role of early North American snowmelt in blocking patterns. This gap may explain the discrepancy and suggests future projections could underestimate Greenland blocking and its impact on melting. Better representation of snow cover processes is essential for improving climate model accuracy. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_125995" data-show=".short_summary_button_125995">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="2"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/43/2025/wcd-6-43-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/43/2025/wcd-6-43-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/43/2025/wcd-6-43-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="551" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 09 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/43/2025/">Western disturbances and climate variability: a review of recent developments</a> <div class="authors">Kieran M. R. Hunt, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Andrew G. Turner, A. P. Dimri, Ghulam Jeelani, Pooja, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Forest Cannon, T. Arulalan, M. S. Shekhar, T. P. Sabin, and Eliza Palazzi</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 43–112, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-43-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_118897" data-show=".short_summary_118897" data-hide=".short_summary_button_118897" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_118897" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Western disturbances (WDs) are storms that predominantly affect north India and Pakistan during the winter months, where they play an important role in regional water security, but can also bring a range of natural hazards. In this review, we summarise recent literature across a range of topics: their structure and lifecycle, precipitation and impacts, interactions with large-scale weather patterns, representation in models, how well they are forecast, and their response to changes in climate. </div> <span class="eg-link">This article is included in the <a target="_blank" href="https://encyclopedia-of-geosciences.net">Encyclopedia of Geosciences</a></span> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_118897" data-show=".short_summary_button_118897">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/43/2025/wcd-6-43-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/43/2025/wcd-6-43-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/43/2025/wcd-6-43-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="551" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="2"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/17/2025/wcd-6-17-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/17/2025/wcd-6-17-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/17/2025/wcd-6-17-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="348" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 08 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/17/2025/">From sea to sky: understanding the sea surface temperature impact on an atmospheric blocking event using sensitivity experiments with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model</a> <div class="authors">Svenja Christ, Marta Wenta, Christian M. Grams, and Annika Oertel</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 17–42, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-17-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_122286" data-show=".short_summary_122286" data-hide=".short_summary_button_122286" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_122286" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> The detailed representation of sea surface temperature (SST) in numerical models is important for the prediction of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic. Yet the underlying physical processes are not fully understood. Using SST sensitivity experiments for a case study, we identify a physical pathway through which SST in the Gulf Stream region is linked to the downstream upper-level flow evolution in the North Atlantic. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_122286" data-show=".short_summary_button_122286">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/17/2025/wcd-6-17-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/17/2025/wcd-6-17-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/17/2025/wcd-6-17-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="348" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="2"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1/2025/wcd-6-1-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1/2025/wcd-6-1-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1/2025/wcd-6-1-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="141" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 07 Jan 2025</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1/2025/">Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France</a> <div class="authors">Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1–15, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025,</span> 2025</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_118474" data-show=".short_summary_118474" data-hide=".short_summary_button_118474" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_118474" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on extreme cold events, such as the winter of 1963 in France, which are expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare-event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_118474" data-show=".short_summary_button_118474">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1/2025/wcd-6-1-2025-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1/2025/wcd-6-1-2025-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/1/2025/wcd-6-1-2025-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="141" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1561/2024/wcd-5-1561-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1561/2024/wcd-5-1561-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1561/2024/wcd-5-1561-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="495" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 20 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1561/2024/">Causal relationships and predictability of the summer East Atlantic teleconnection</a> <div class="authors">Julianna Carvalho-Oliveira, Giorgia Di Capua, Leonard F. Borchert, Reik V. Donner, and Johanna Baehr</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1561–1578, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024,</span> 2024</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_112840" data-show=".short_summary_112840" data-hide=".short_summary_button_112840" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_112840" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> We demonstrate with a causal analysis that an important recurrent summer atmospheric pattern, the so-called East Atlantic teleconnection, was influenced by the extratropical North Atlantic in spring during the second half of the 20th century. This causal link is, however, not well represented by our evaluated seasonal climate prediction system. We show that simulations able to reproduce this link show improved surface climate prediction credibility over those that do not. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_112840" data-show=".short_summary_button_112840">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1561/2024/wcd-5-1561-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1561/2024/wcd-5-1561-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1561/2024/wcd-5-1561-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="495" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1545/2024/wcd-5-1545-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1545/2024/wcd-5-1545-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1545/2024/wcd-5-1545-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="354" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 20 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1545/2024/">Detection and consequences of atmospheric deserts: insights from a case study</a> <div class="authors">Fiona Fix, Georg Mayr, Achim Zeileis, Isabell Stucke, and Reto Stauffer</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1545–1560, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1545-2024,</span> 2024</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_121840" data-show=".short_summary_121840" data-hide=".short_summary_button_121840" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_121840" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Atmospheric deserts (ADs) are air masses that are transported away from hot, dry regions. Our study introduces this new concept. ADs can suppress or boost thunderstorms and potentially contribute to the formation of heat waves, which makes them relevant for forecasting extreme events. Using a novel detection method, we follow an AD directly from North Africa to Europe for a case in June 2022, allowing us to analyse the air mass at any time and investigate how it is modified along the way. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_121840" data-show=".short_summary_button_121840">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1545/2024/wcd-5-1545-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1545/2024/wcd-5-1545-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1545/2024/wcd-5-1545-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="354" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1523/2024/wcd-5-1523-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1523/2024/wcd-5-1523-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1523/2024/wcd-5-1523-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="418" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 17 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1523/2024/">A global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones</a> <div class="authors">Suzanne L. Gray, Ambrogio Volont茅, Oscar Mart铆nez-Alvarado, and Ben J. Harvey</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1523–1544, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1523-2024,</span> 2024</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_120223" data-show=".short_summary_120223" data-hide=".short_summary_button_120223" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_120223" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Sting jets occur in some of the most damaging cyclones impacting Europe. We present the first climatology of sting-jet cyclones over the major ocean basins. Cyclones with sting-jet precursors occur over the North Atlantic, North Pacific, and Southern Oceans, with implications for wind warnings. Precursor cyclones have distinct characteristics, even in reanalyses that are too coarse to fully resolve sting jets, evidencing the climatological consequences of strong diabatic cloud processes. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_120223" data-show=".short_summary_button_120223">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1523/2024/wcd-5-1523-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1523/2024/wcd-5-1523-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1523/2024/wcd-5-1523-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="418" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/wcd-5-1505-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/wcd-5-1505-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/wcd-5-1505-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="195" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 17 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/">The role of the Indian Ocean Dipole in modulating the austral spring ENSO teleconnection to the Southern Hemisphere</a> <div class="authors">Luciano Gustavo Andrian, Marisol Osman, and Carolina Susana Vera</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1505–1522, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1505-2024,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1505-2024,</span> 2024</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_121122" data-show=".short_summary_121122" data-hide=".short_summary_button_121122" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_121122" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> The interplay between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is well-researched in the tropical Indian Ocean, but their effects on the Southern Hemisphere's extratropical regions during spring are less studied. We show that the positive phase of the IOD can strengthen the El Niño circulation anomalies, heightening their continental impacts. On the other hand, negative IOD combined with La Niña shows less consistent changes among the different methodologies. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_121122" data-show=".short_summary_button_121122">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/wcd-5-1505-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/wcd-5-1505-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1505/2024/wcd-5-1505-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="195" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-1 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 16 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-3732/">Physical Processes Leading to Extreme day-to-day Temperatures Changes, Part I: Present-day Climate</a> <div class="authors">Kalpana Hamal and Stephan Pfahl</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3732,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3732,</span> 2024</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: final response, 6 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_125426" data-show=".short_summary_125426" data-hide=".short_summary_button_125426" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_125426" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> This study investigates the global drivers of sudden temperature changes from one day to the next using observational data and trajectory analysis. In extratropical regions, these shifts are mainly driven by air mass movements linked to circulation patterns. In tropical areas, local factors like cloud cover play a key role. Understanding these mechanisms improves predictions of extreme temperature events, aiding in better preparation and mitigation strategies. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_125426" data-show=".short_summary_button_125426">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-2 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 13 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-3713/">The future North Atlantic jet stream and storm track: relative contributions from sea ice and sea surface temperature changes</a> <div class="authors">Daniel K枚hler, Petri R盲is盲nen, Tuomas Naakka, Kalle Nordling, and Victoria A. Sinclair</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3713,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3713,</span> 2024</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Revised manuscript under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: final response, 3 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_125377" data-show=".short_summary_125377" data-hide=".short_summary_button_125377" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_125377" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> We study the impacts of globally increasing sea surface temperatures and sea-ice loss on the atmosphere in wintertime. In future climates, the jet stream shifts southward over the North Atlantic and extends further over Europe. Increasing sea surface temperatures drive these changes. The region of high activity of low-pressure systems is projected to move east towards Europe. Future increasing sea surface temperatures and sea-ice loss contribute with similar magnitude to the eastward shift. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_125377" data-show=".short_summary_button_125377">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1489/2024/wcd-5-1489-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1489/2024/wcd-5-1489-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1489/2024/wcd-5-1489-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="367" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 06 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1489/2024/">Role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in alleviating biases in the semi-annual oscillation</a> <div class="authors">Aleena M. Jaison, Lesley J. Gray, Scott M. Osprey, Jeff R. Knight, and Martin B. Andrews</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1489–1504, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1489-2024,</span> 2024</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_121137" data-show=".short_summary_121137" data-hide=".short_summary_button_121137" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_121137" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Models have biases in semi-annual oscillation (SAO) representation, mainly due to insufficient eastward wave forcing. We examined if the bias is from increased wave absorption due to circulation biases in the low–middle stratosphere. Alleviating biases at lower altitudes improves the SAO, but substantial bias remains. Alternative methods like gravity wave parameterization changes should be explored to enhance the modelled SAO, potentially improving sudden stratospheric warming predictability. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_121137" data-show=".short_summary_button_121137">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1489/2024/wcd-5-1489-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1489/2024/wcd-5-1489-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1489/2024/wcd-5-1489-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="367" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object in-range paperList-final" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1473/2024/wcd-5-1473-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1473/2024/wcd-5-1473-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1473/2024/wcd-5-1473-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-height="311" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 04 Dec 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1473/2024/">Concurrent Bering Sea and Labrador Sea ice melt extremes in March 2023: a confluence of meteorological events aligned with stratosphere鈥搕roposphere interactions</a> <div class="authors">Thomas J. Ballinger, Kent Moore, Qinghua Ding, Amy H. Butler, James E. Overland, Richard L. Thoman, Ian Baxter, Zhe Li, and Edward Hanna</div> <div class="citation">Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1473–1488, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1473-2024,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1473-2024,</span> 2024</div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_119079" data-show=".short_summary_119079" data-hide=".short_summary_button_119079" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_119079" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> This study chronicles the meteorological conditions that led to the anomalous, tandem March 2023 ice melt event in the Labrador and Bering seas. A sudden stratospheric warming event initiated the development of an anticyclonic circulation pattern over the Greenland–Labrador region, while the La Niña background state supported ridging conditions over Alaska, both of which aided northward transport of warm, moist air and drove the concurrent sea ice melt extremes. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_119079" data-show=".short_summary_button_119079">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> <a class="paperlist-avatar" target="_blank" href="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1473/2024/wcd-5-1473-2024-avatar-web.png"> <img class="img-responsive" src="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1473/2024/wcd-5-1473-2024-avatar-thumb80.png" data-web="https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1473/2024/wcd-5-1473-2024-avatar-web.png" data-width="600" data-caption="漏 Author(s). Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License." data-height="311" width="80" height="80"> </a> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-1 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 26 Nov 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-3387/">A Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics</a> <div class="authors">Kerry Emanuel, Tommaso Alberti, Stella Bourdin, Suzana J. Camargo, Davide Faranda, Manos Flaounas, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Chia-Ying Lee, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Claudia Pasquero, Alice Portal, Hamish Ramsay, and Romualdo Romero</div> <div class="citation">EGUsphere, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3387,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3387,</span> 2024</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: final response, 2 comments)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_124523" data-show=".short_summary_124523" data-hide=".short_summary_button_124523" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_124523" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> Storms strongly resembling hurricanes are sometime observed to form well outside the tropics, even in polar latitudes. They behave capriciously, developing very rapidly and then dying just as quickly. We show that strong dynamical processes in the atmosphere can sometimes cause it to become locally much colder than the underlying ocean, creating the conditions for hurricanes to form, but only over small areas and for short times. We call the resulting storms "cyclops". </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_124523" data-show=".short_summary_button_124523">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div> <div class="grid-container paperlist-object type-0 in-range paperList-discussion" data-diff="3"> <div class="grid-100 hide-on-desktop hide-on-tablet"> </div> <div class="grid-85 tablet-grid-85"> <div class="published-date"> 25 Nov 2024</div> <a class="article-title" target="_parent" href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-3322/">What advances monsoon onset over India?</a> <div class="authors">Bidyut Bikash Goswami and Caroline Muller</div> <div class="citation">External preprint server, <nobr class="hide-on-mobile hide-on-tablet">https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3743877/v2,</nobr><span class="hide-on-desktop">https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3743877/v2,</span> 2024</div> <div class="statusMessage"><span>Preprint under review for WCD</span> <nobr>(discussion: open, 1 comment)</nobr></div> <span class="show-hide journal-contentLinkColor triangle short_summary_button_124399" data-show=".short_summary_124399" data-hide=".short_summary_button_124399" >Short summary</span> <div class="j-widget__max short_summary short_summary_124399" style="display: none"> <div class="widget dark-border"> <div class="legend journal-contentLinkColor">Short summary</div> <div class="content"> The Indian summer monsoon season runs from June to September. However, the exact onset date of monsoon varies from year to year. The onset marks the arrival of copious rainfall over India, and its accurate prediction has crucial societal implications. Comparing early versus late monsoon onsets, we note that warmer oceanic surface water in the Bay of Bengal advances monsoon onset over India. We validated our hypothesis by examining a climate model response to warm anomalies in the Bay of Bengal. </div> <div><a href="#" class="show-hide triangle" data-hide=".short_summary_124399" data-show=".short_summary_button_124399">Hide</a></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="grid-15 tablet-grid-15 text-right hide-on-mobile"> </div> </div>  <div class="pswp" tabindex="-1" role="dialog" aria-hidden="true" >  <div class="pswp__bg"></div>  <div class="pswp__scroll-wrap">  <div class="pswp__container"> <div class="pswp__item"></div> <div class="pswp__item"></div> <div class="pswp__item"></div> </div>  <div class="pswp__ui pswp__ui--hidden"> <div class="pswp__top-bar">  <div class="pswp__counter"></div> <button class="pswp__button pswp__button--close" title="Close (Esc)"></button> <button class="pswp__button pswp__button--fs" title="Toggle fullscreen"></button>   <div class="pswp__preloader"> <div class="pswp__preloader__icn"> <div class="pswp__preloader__cut"> <div class="pswp__preloader__donut"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="pswp__share-modal pswp__share-modal--hidden pswp__single-tap"> <div class="pswp__share-tooltip"></div> </div> <button class="pswp__button pswp__button--arrow--left" title="Previous (arrow left)"> </button> <button class="pswp__button pswp__button--arrow--right" title="Next (arrow right)"> </button> <div class="pswp__caption "> <div class="pswp__caption__center"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <script> $(function (){ $('.recent-selection-wrapper button').click((event) => { event.preventDefault(); event.stopPropagation(); event.stopImmediatePropagation(); let currentElement = event.currentTarget; $("html, body").animate({ scrollTop: $('.breadcrumb').offset().top }, "slow"); return false; }); }); </script>  <a rel="license" style="display: none" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY 4.0</a> </div> </div>  </div> </div> </main>  <footer class="d-print-none version-2023"> <div class="footer"> <div class="container"> <div class="row align-items-center mb-3"> <div class="col-12 col-lg-auto text-center text-md-left title-wrapper"> <div id="j-header-footer" class="text-center text-md-left"> <div class="h1 text-center text-md-left"> Weather and Climate Dynamics </div> <p>An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union</p> </div> </div> <div class="col-12 col-lg-auto text-center text-md-left pt-lg-2"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-12 col-sm col-md-auto text-center text-md-left mb-3 mb-sm-0"> <span class="egu-logo"><a href="http://www.egu.eu/" target="_blank"><img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/319373/760/ssl" alt="" style="width: 410px; height: 325px;" /></a></span> </div> <div class="col-12 col-sm text-center text-md-left"> <span class="copernicus-logo"><a href="https://publications.copernicus.org/" target="_blank"><img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/319376/760/ssl" alt="" style="width: 1784px; height: 330px;" /></a></span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="links pb-4 pt-4"> <div class="container"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col-12 col-xl-auto mt-3"> <div class="row align-items-start align-items-lg-center"> <div class="col-12 mb-3 mb-md-0 pl-md-0 text-center text-md-left"><a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank"><i class="fab fa-creative-commons fa-lg mr-1"></i><i class="fab fa-creative-commons-by fa-lg"></i></a> All site content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License</a>.</div> </div> </div> <div class="col-12 text-center text-md-left col-lg-auto mt-3"> <div class="row align-items-center"> <div class="col d-md-none px-0"></div> <div class="col-auto pr-1"><a href="https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/about/contact.html">Contact</a></div> <div class="col-auto px-1">|</div> <div class="col-auto px-1"><a href="https://www.weather-climate-dynamics.net/imprint.html">Imprint</a></div> <div class="col-auto px-1">|</div> <div class="col-auto px-1"><a href="https://www.copernicus.org/data_protection.html" target="_blank">Data protection</a></div> <div class="col-auto pl-2"></div> <div class="col d-md-none px-0"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </footer> </body> </html>

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