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</div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-8156" class="post-8156 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-south-australia tag-black tag-by-election tag-sa tag-south-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sas-black-by-election-plus-why-sa-needs-to-update-how-it-counts-early-votes/" rel="bookmark">SA’s Black By-election, plus why SA needs to update how it counts early votes</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-11-16T17:34:50+11:00" content="2024-11-16">November 16, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-20T20:54:54+11:00">November 20, 2024</time></li><li class="meta comments"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sas-black-by-election-plus-why-sa-needs-to-update-how-it-counts-early-votes/#comments">3 Comments</a></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(<strong>Update 20 November</strong> – I did not know when I wrote this post, but two days before polling day for the Black by-election, the Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Bill was introduced into the Legislative Council. Its provisions include allowing the issuing Early votes as ordinary votes, a provision which allows Early votes to be counted on election night. A step forward compared to what happened at the Black by-election.) </p> <p>Tonight I will be covering the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-black-by-election-2024/results">Black By-election at the ABC’s election website</a>.</p> <p>As my blog receives a massive number of click throughs from Google whenever there is an election, I make sure to provide a link to where I’m reporting the results. So if you want to know Black by-election results, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-black-by-election-2024/results">try the Black by-election page at ABC elections.</a></p> <p>But it’s also worth me publishing a post on how the South Australian Electoral Act will probably prevent us knowing the winner of the Black by-election tonight.</p> <p>More than 10,099 ballot papers for the Black by-election, 8,544 Early votes and 1,555 Postal votes, sit sealed in Declaration envelopes at the Electoral Commission waiting to be opened and counted. But the law prevents the SA Electoral Commission from counting these votes tonight. Counting of them cannot begin until Monday.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sas-black-by-election-plus-why-sa-needs-to-update-how-it-counts-early-votes/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">SA’s Black By-election, plus why SA needs to update how it counts early votes</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8115" class="post-8115 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-queensland category-south-australia tag-218 tag-black tag-by-elections tag-election tag-queensland tag-result-updates tag-sa tag-south-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sa-black-by-election-plus-updates-on-2024-queensland-election-count/" rel="bookmark">SA Black By-election plus Updates on 2024 Queensland Election Count</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-11-02T13:02:25+11:00" content="2024-11-02">November 2, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-02T15:23:32+11:00">November 2, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>A quick post highlighting a new ABC Elections guide page by me for the Black by-election, plus an explainer on how the count is unfolding for the Queensland election. Details inside the post.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/sa-black-by-election-plus-updates-on-2024-queensland-election-count/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">SA Black By-election plus Updates on 2024 Queensland Election Count</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8066" class="post-8066 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-a-c-t category-by-elections category-new-south-wales layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act-2024-election-and-epping-hornsby-and-pittwater-by-elections/" rel="bookmark">ACT 2024 Election and Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater By-elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-19T12:39:38+11:00" content="2024-10-19">October 19, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-19T12:41:59+11:00">October 19, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Here’s my usual election day post to deal with the flood of google searches that end up being directed to my site on election day.</p> <p>As usual, I am not blogging here. I will be on ABC Television doing live coverage of the ACT election with an update or two on the three NSW by-elections.</p> <p>There will be a full results service on the ABC elections site for both the ACT and the by-elections. For links see inside the post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act-2024-election-and-epping-hornsby-and-pittwater-by-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">ACT 2024 Election and Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater By-elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7689" class="post-7689 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-new-south-wales tag-by-elections tag-new-south-wales tag-northern-tablelands tag-nsw layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-northern-tablelands-by-election/" rel="bookmark">2024 Northern Tablelands By-election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-05-15T18:33:30+10:00" content="2024-05-15">May 15, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-06-07T14:50:38+10:00">June 7, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><strong>7 June</strong> – updated with the list of five nominated candidates.</p> <p>In NSW the Minns government will face its first electoral test on June 22 at the Northern Tablelands by-election.</p> <p>Or to be more correct, <strong>could</strong> have faced its first by-election test because Labor looks unlikely to nominate a candidate. (Confirmed – Labor has not nominated.) Based in the state’s rural north, Northern Tablelands is the Coalition’s safest seat, the Nationals polling a huge 83.8% of the two-party preferred at last year’s state election. At the 2011 election, the Labor vote was so low its candidate lost their deposit!</p> <p>The only interest will be if an Independent candidate nominates, trying to tap into local Independent support that saw Richard Torbay win Northern Tablelands at four elections from 1999 to 2011 and helped Tony Windsor win the Federal seat of New England in the same period.</p> <p>I’m publishing a profile of the by-election on my personal blog as I will be overseas for the by-election and not have access to the ABC website. I will try and update this page while overseas. I will not be providing result commentary on 22 June as I will be otherwise engaged in Budapest.</p> <h3 id="">2024 Northern Tablelands By-election</h3> <h4>Party Status: <span class="ptygreen strong">Very Very Safe National 33.8%</span></h4> <h4>Date – Saturday 22 June 2024</h4> <p>The by-election has been caused by the retirement of National Party MLA Adam Marshall.</p> <p>The by-election writ will be issued and rolls close on Friday 31 May. Nominations close Thursday 6 June with announcement of candidates and draw for ballot position on Friday 7 June. Postal vote application open Monday 20 May, Pre-Poll voting starts Saturday 15 June. Further information on the by-election can be found at the <a href="https://elections.nsw.gov.au/elections/state-elections/2024-northern-tablelands-state-by-election">NSW Electoral Commission’s website</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-northern-tablelands-by-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2024 Northern Tablelands By-election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7679" class="post-7679 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-federal-elections tag-by-election tag-dunkley layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/final-wrap-of-the-dunkley-by-election/" rel="bookmark">Final Wrap of the Dunkley By-election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-04-08T11:20:17+10:00" content="2024-04-08">April 8, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-04-08T11:39:03+10:00">April 8, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>The result of the Dunkley by-election was declared last month, but as usual it has taken a couple of weeks for the the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) to finalise and release its full suite of election statistics on the by-election.</p> <p>This post wraps up the final figures, looking at turnout, preference flows by candidate and result by vote type.</p> <p>In short, the by-election saw a normal change in turnout, the pattern of vote by type was normal, and the pattern of preferences flows was normal. The by-election produced an overall swing of 3.5% which is on par with an average by-election swing.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/final-wrap-of-the-dunkley-by-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Final Wrap of the Dunkley By-election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7415" class="post-7415 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-convenience-voting category-electoral-law category-south-australia tag-by-election tag-dunstan tag-pre-poll-voting tag-south-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/dunstan-by-election-updates-plus-problems-with-the-sa-electoral-act/" rel="bookmark">Dunstan By-election Updates plus problems with the SA Electoral Act</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-27T22:23:24+11:00" content="2024-03-27">March 27, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-04-03T08:36:32+11:00">April 3, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>After looking the clear winner of the Dunstan by-election on Saturday night, Labor has finished with a narrower margin than expected.</p> <p>Dunstan had been held by former Liberal Premier Steven Marshall since 2010. He squeaked home with a narrow 0.5% margin at the 2022 state election which meant the seat was always going to be a hotly contested by-election on his retirement. (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">For background on the by-election and the results see my profile on the ABC Elections website</a>. Final figures published.)</p> <p>On election night the Labor Party finished on 53.8%, boosted to 54.0% on Sunday by check counting. At that point, based on declaration vote trends at the 2022 state election, Labor would have expected to finish with 52.7% once all votes were counted.</p> <p>In fact the race has been much closer. On Thursday 28 March, Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon is on 50.8% after preferences with a lead over Liberal Anna Finizio of 347 votes. The count is at 80.5% of enrolment with only a handful of outstanding postal votes remaining to be counted. Due to Good Friday, postal vote return closes on Tuesday 2 April to be followed by the formnal distribution of preferences.</p> <p>Labor will win after a swing of 1.4%, down substantially on the 4.5% swing seen on election night.</p> <p>The table below shows how the count narrowed with the release of each successive declaration vote count.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/dunstan-by-election-updates-plus-problems-with-the-sa-electoral-act/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Dunstan By-election Updates plus problems with the SA Electoral Act</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7381" class="post-7381 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-preferential-voting-multi-member category-south-australia category-tasmania tag-by-election tag-dunstan tag-elections tag-hare-clark tag-south-australia tag-tasmania layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/coverage-of-tasmanian-state-election-and-dunstan-by-election/" rel="bookmark">Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-23T17:28:05+11:00" content="2024-03-23">March 23, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-23T18:05:35+11:00">March 23, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>This is one of my usual posts on election night designed to deal with the surge of visitors to the site driven by Google searches.</p> <p>I will not be posting here this evening as I am involved in the ABC’s live coverage of the Tasmanian election. The coverage is being broadcast live across Tasmania from 6pm eastern daylight time on the ABC’s main channel, and across Australia on the ABC News channel. There will also be updates of the important Dunstan by-election in South Australia during the Tasmanian coverage.</p> <p>The ABC will also be publishing live results at ABC-online. Access the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas/2024/results">Tasmanian live results site here</a>. You can also find the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/dunstan-by-election-2024">Dunstan by-election results here</a>.</p> <p>Inside this post I have information on the early vote at both elections.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/coverage-of-tasmanian-state-election-and-dunstan-by-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Coverage of Tasmanian State Election and Dunstan By-election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7333" class="post-7333 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-local-government category-queensland tag-brisbane-city-council tag-by-elections tag-inala tag-ipswich-west tag-local-government tag-queensland layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-election-results-coverage-for-brisbane-city-council-and-queensland-by-elections/" rel="bookmark">Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-16T12:25:45+11:00" content="2024-03-16">March 16, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-19T17:36:31+11:00">March 19, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/results?filter=all&sort=az">ABC Results site is now live here.</a></p> <p><strong>Updated Tuesday 19 March 5pm AEDT</strong></p> <p>The tables below summarises the result. There are updates on latest figures being logged inside the post.</p> <h3>Results Summary</h3> <table class="AGTable"> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">Inala by-election</a></td> <td class="left"><strong>Labor retain</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">Ipswich West by-election</a></td> <td class="left"><strong>LNP GAIN</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/lm">Brisbane Lord Mayor</a></td> <td class="left"><strong>Adrian Schrinner re-elected</strong></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Brisbane Wards</td> <td class="left"><strong>LNP retain majority</strong></td> </tr> </table> <h3>Brisbane Council – Wards Won by Party</h3> <table class="AGTable"> <tbody> <tr> <td></td> <td class="centre ptyblue">LNP</td> <td class="centre ptyred">ALP</td> <td class="centre ptylightgreen">GRN</td> <td class="centre ptyblack">IND</td> <td class="centre ptyblack">Doubt</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Wards won</td> <td class="centre">17</td> <td class="centre">5</td> <td class="centre">2</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left">Leading</td> <td class="centre">1</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">..</td> <td class="centre">..</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h3>Brisbane Wards – Councillors Elected</h3> <table class="AGTable"> <thead> <th class="left">Ward</th> <th class="left">Margin and Incumbent</th> <th class="left">Result</th> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/brac">Bracken Ridge</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Sandy Landers</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/cala">Calamvale</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Angela Owen</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">Labor GAIN</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/cent">Central</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Vicki Howard</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/chan">Chandler</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Ryan Murphy</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/coor">Coorparoo</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Fiona Cunningham</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/deag">Deagon</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Jared Cassidy</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/dobo">Doboy</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Lisa Atwood</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/enog">Enoggera</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Andrew Wines</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/fore">Forest Lake</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Charles Strunk</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/hami">Hamilton</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Julia Dixon</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/holl">Holland Park</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Krista Adams</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/jamb">Jamboree</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Sarah Hutton</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/macg">Macgregor</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Steven Huang</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/marc">Marchant</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Danita Parry</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/mcdo">McDowall</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Tracy Davis</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/moor">Moorooka</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Steve Griffiths</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/morn">Morningside</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Lucy Collier</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/nort">Northgate</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Adam Allan</td> <td class="left">LNP ahead</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/padd">Paddington</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Clare Jenkinson</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptylightgreen">Greens GAIN</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/pull">Pullenvale</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Greg Adermann</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/runc">Runcorn</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Kim Marx</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/tenn">Tennyson</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">IND</span> – Nicole Jonhston</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/tgab">The Gabba</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span> – Trina Massey</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/tgap">The Gap</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Steve Toomey</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/walt">Walter Taylor</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP</span> – Penny Wolff</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblack">Re-elected</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td class="left"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/wynn">Wynnum-Manly</a></td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyred">ALP</span> – Sara Whitmee</td> <td class="left"><span class="ptyblue">LNP gain</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><iframe title="2024 Brisbane City Council Election - Ward Results" aria-label="Map" id="datawrapper-chart-wgHQl" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wgHQl/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="557" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/live-election-results-coverage-for-brisbane-city-council-and-queensland-by-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Live Coverage of Brisbane City Council, Inala and Ipswich West By-elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7315" class="post-7315 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-queensland tag-by-elections tag-inala tag-ipswich-west tag-queensland tag-swings layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/queensland-by-elections-since-1992/" rel="bookmark">Queensland By-elections since 1992</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-15T11:23:05+11:00" content="2024-03-15">March 15, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-15T11:51:09+11:00">March 15, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>As well as voting in the Queensland local government elections this weekend, voters in the Labor-held seats of Inala and Ipswich West will vote at state by-elections to elect new MPs.</p> <p>“Informed sources” are making predictions of big swings. There are hints from Labor at possible seat losses, from the LNP about falling short of the required swing. The sort of expectations management now common ahead of important by-elections.</p> <p>The results of both by-elections, and the Brisbane City Council election, will be watched closely. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guides">On Saturday night you can follow my coverage of the elections at the ABC’s Brisbane City Council and By-elections live results site.</a> I’ll also be joining Steve Austin on ABC Brisbane local radio analysing the results.</p> <p>The election night dissections will be followed by the reports of the auguries on Sunday. What will they be able to divine about the fate of the Labor government and new Premier Steven Miles at the state election set for October?</p> <p>The Inala by-election (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/inal">preview here</a>) is to select a replacement for former Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Inala has been Labor’s safest seat for three decades and its margin of 28.2% looks insurmountable.</p> <p>At greater risk further along the Warrego Highway is Ipswich West (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bcc/2024/guide/ipwe">preview here</a>). Former member Jim Madden has been followed by controversy before resigning and the seat’s margin of 14.3% is half that of Inala. It is a seat that both the LNP and One Nation have held in the past.</p> <p>Looking back at Queensland by-elections since 1992, they provide a mixed bag of results to measure against this weekend’s results. There have been 21 by-elections since 1992, eight resulting in the incumbent party being defeated. Twelve of these by-elections were two-party preferred contests like this weekend’s pair, and six saw incumbents defeated.</p> <p>In summary –</p> <ul> <li>Of the 12 two-party preferred by-elections,<strong> the average swing against the government of the day was 6.5%</strong>.</li> <li>The seven by-elections while Labor was in government saw <strong> an average swing of 5.0% against Labor government</strong>.</li> <li>The five by-elections while the LNP was in government produced <strong>an average swing of 8.5% against the LNP government</strong>.</li> <li>Of the seven by-elections in government held seats, <strong>the average swing against the government was 10.1%</strong> Five were in Labor seats in Labor governments and an average of 6.9%, the two LNP seats while the LNP governed averaging 18.2%.</li> <li>The Beattie Labor government lost three seats after big swings at by-elections between 2005 and 2006. Labor lost Chatsworth in 2005 after a 13.9% swing, Redcliffe the same day with an 8.4% swing, and Gaven in April 2006 after an 8.3% swing. <strong>Despite the losses, Labor re-gained all three seats at the 2006 election.</strong></li> <li>The Newman LNP government lost two seats to huge swings at by-elections in 2014, losing Redcliffe to a 17.2% swing, and Stafford shortly after to an even bigger 19.1% swing. <strong>Both results accurately predicted the result of the next state election in January 2015.</strong></li> </ul> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/queensland-by-elections-since-1992/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Queensland By-elections since 1992</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-7303" class="post-7303 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-federal-elections category-queensland category-south-australia category-tasmania tag-brisbane-city-council tag-by-elections-dunkley tag-cook tag-dunstan tag-election tag-inala tag-ipswich-west tag-tasmania layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/by-elections-brisbane-and-tasmanian-elections/" rel="bookmark">By-elections, Brisbane and Tasmanian Elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-03-11T13:11:34+11:00" content="2024-03-11">March 11, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-03-11T13:53:00+11:00">March 11, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>I’m publishing a lot of material on different elections over on my ABC Election site.</p> <p>In this post I’ll point to all the new material and extract a few recent updates from each site.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/by-elections-brisbane-and-tasmanian-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">By-elections, Brisbane and Tasmanian Elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div><ul class='page-numbers'> <li><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/by-elections/page/2/">2</a></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/by-elections/page/3/">3</a></li> <li><a class="page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/by-elections/page/4/">4</a></li> <li><a rel="next" class="next page-numbers" href="https://antonygreen.com.au/category/by-elections/page/2/">Next »</a></li> </ul> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div 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