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</div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-6760" class="post-6760 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-apportionments category-new-south-wales category-redistribution tag-209 tag-federal tag-nsw tag-redistribution layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/projected-enrolment-data-released-for-nsw-federal-redistribution/" rel="bookmark">Projected Enrolment Data released for NSW Federal Redistribution</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-09-27T17:32:39+10:00" content="2023-09-27">September 27, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-09-28T12:15:20+10:00">September 28, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>The first step in the redistribution of NSW federal electoral boundaries began yesterday with a call for submissions and the release of base enrolment data.</p> <p>The major scale of boundary changes required has been revealed by the released projected enrolment figures.</p> <p>NSW is losing a seat at the next Federal election, the state’s representation reduced from 47 to 46 seats.</p> <p>In addition, with seven years having passed since the last redistribution, enrolments by electoral division have diverged widely from the state average.</p> <p>Abolishing a division while bringing all divisions back within the permitted variation from quota will require major surgery to some electorates.</p> <p>And boundary changes will almost certainly have big political consequences.</p> <p>Several electorates in the state’s west are well below quota and require major changes. Seats in Sydney’s west and south-west are well over quota, in contrast to under quota Sydney seats closer to the coast.</p> <p>Evening out the enrolment numbers across the Sydney basin will not be easy. Sydney’s many bays and inlets give the city a distinctive political geography. Wholesale boundary changes are going to jumble the electoral margins of many seats.</p> <p>In the immediate firing line are the four ‘teal’ Independent seats in Sydney’s east.</p> <p>The seats of Wentworth (Allegra Spender), Mackellar (Sophie Scamps), Warringah (Zali Steggall) and North Sydney (Kylea Tink) are all well under quota. All these seats must increase their enrolment, eating into the territory of seats to their west.</p> <p>Sydney’s Liberal heartland north of the Harbour looks certain to lose a seat, possible forcing a Liberal MP to nominate against one of the ‘teals’.</p> <p>There will be a new seat created in Sydney’s outer south-west and the possible abolition of a seat further east. This creates a complex electoral jigsaw that the redistribution commissioners will first have to unpick and then re-assemble.</p> <p>Inside the post I have maps highlighting the enrolment variations and provide analysis of how new boundaries might be drawn.</p> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/prospects-for-the-federal-redistribution-in-nsw/">In a previous post on NSW redistribution prospects</a>, I looked only at what current enrolment numbers could tell us about the redistribution. In this post I am using the more important projected enrolment numbers.</p> <p>(And I’m happy to receive and publish suggestions on how the new boundaries might be drawn.)</p> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/projected-enrolment-data-released-for-nsw-federal-redistribution/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Projected Enrolment Data released for NSW Federal Redistribution</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6753" class="post-6753 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-by-elections category-victoria tag-by-election tag-daniel-andrews tag-election-s tag-mulgrafve tag-victoria layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/daniel-andrews-resigns-ad-victorian-premier/" rel="bookmark">Daniel Andrews resigns as Victorian Premier</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-09-26T18:00:43+10:00" content="2023-09-26">September 26, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-09-26T20:17:38+10:00">September 26, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Catching everyone by surprise today is the announcement by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews that he will resign as Premier tomorrow.</p> <p>Earlier this year Andrews passed John Cain Junior to become Labor’s longest serving Victorian Premier, and earlier this month he passed Rupert ‘Dick’ Hamer to become Victoria’s fourth longest serving Premier.</p> <p>I doubt Andrews has been hanging around just to pass Hamer. If he had waited another week he would have passed Sir James McCulloch to become the state’s third longest serving Premier.</p> <p>There are plenty of media stories analysing Andrews’ time in office, trying to explain the sudden departure and examining who might replace him. I don’t think there is anything I can add to the speculation and the political obituaries.</p> <p>I’m posting here to direct everyone to my just published background piece on the by-election that must now be held in Andrews’ seat of Mulgrave. He won Mulgrave with a two-party margin of 10.2% last November. The seat should be safe for Labor, but you never know in a suddenly changed political climate.</p> <p>Since its re-election last November, the Andrews government has been announcing and dealing with bad news, mostly in relation to the budget. The most spectacular backflip was the announcement that the state would no longer host the Commonwealth Games in 2026.</p> <p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/mulgrave-by-election-2023">You can find my profile for the Mulgrave by-election here.</a><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/daniel-andrews-resigns-ad-victorian-premier/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Daniel Andrews resigns as Victorian Premier</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6744" class="post-6744 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-apportionments category-federal-elections category-redistribution category-senate tag-australia tag-representation tag-senate tag-territory layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/would-creating-extra-senators-for-the-territories-increase-the-house-of-representatives/" rel="bookmark">Would Creating Extra Senators for the Territories change the House of Representatives</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-09-19T11:43:53+10:00" content="2023-09-19">September 19, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-09-19T12:14:16+10:00">September 19, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>A report from ABC Darwin overnight again raises the question of whether the Albanese government will increase the number of territory Senators.</p> <p>Special Minister of State, Senator Don Farrell, referred to a looming report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. The story was last reported around a month ago. </p> <p>Both the ACT and NT currently elect two Senators. They are elected for maximum three year terms, with their terms tied to the electoral cycle of the House of Representatives.</p> <p>This differs from state Senators who are elected for fixed six-year terms with each state having a constitutionally protected equal number of Senators.</p> <p>Currently each state elects 12 Senators with half (six) elected every three years. (All 12 are elected at double dissolution elections.) The number of Senators per state was set at six in 1901, increased to 10 in 1949 and the current 12 in 1984. Two Senators for each territory were added in 1975.</p> <p>The question I’m usually asked about an increase in territory Senators is whether this would cause an increase in the size of the House of Representatives.</p> <p>The short answer is no, as I’ll explain in this post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/would-creating-extra-senators-for-the-territories-increase-the-house-of-representatives/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Would Creating Extra Senators for the Territories change the House of Representatives</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6736" class="post-6736 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-a-c-t category-australia-elections-federal category-federal-elections category-northern-territory category-queensland category-tasmania category-western-australia tag-australia tag-dates tag-election layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/when-will-the-next-federal-election-be-will-it-be-held-early/" rel="bookmark">When will the next Federal Election be? Will it be early?</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-green/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-09-17T20:30:26+10:00" content="2023-09-17">September 17, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-09-18T08:59:21+10:00">September 18, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>With an agreement reached between Labor and the Greens to pass the government’s housing legislation, even the remotest prospect of an early double dissolution election has vanished.</p> <p>The only way for a joint House and Senate election to be held before August 2024 was via a double dissolution election. With that already unlikely option now removed, an election before August 2024 is only possible if Anthony Albanese breaks with 50 years of Prime Ministerial tradition and holds separate House and half-Senate elections.</p> <p>In theory a House election can be called at any time, but as has been the case at every election since 1974, the next House elections will be held in conjunction with the next half-Senate election due at latest in May 2025.</p> <p>Fixed terms and a constitutional restrictions mean that writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued until 1 July in the year before a Senate term expires. This restriction creates an election window between August and May every three years.</p> <p>The next election window opens on Saturday 3 August 2024, the first possible date for an election if writs are issued on 1 July. The election window will stay open until mid-May 2025, the last date being 17 or 24 May.</p> <p>There remains a chance the government could go to a House and half-Senate election between August and October 2024. But the option is unlikely due to redistributions and a series of state and territory elections. Everything points to the government going full term to May 2025.</p> <p>Of course, events over the next 20 months could unfold differently. And if they do, the election could arrive earlier than April-May 2025.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/when-will-the-next-federal-election-be-will-it-be-held-early/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">When will the next Federal Election be? Will it be early?</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6720" class="post-6720 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-electoral-law category-referendums tag-australia tag-daylight-saving tag-informal-voting tag-referendums tag-ticks-and-crosses tag-western-australia layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/how-many-voters-mark-referendum-ballot-papers-with-a-cross-not-many-based-on-evidence/" rel="bookmark">How many Voters mark Referendum Ballot Papers with a Cross? Not many based on evidence.</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-09-15T10:37:15+10:00" content="2023-09-15">September 15, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-09-15T13:32:59+10:00">September 15, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><strong>Finding – in 2009 WA held a referendum on daylight saving. A one-box ballot paper similar to the Federal referendum ballot was used and the formality rules on ticks and crosses were exactly the same. Out of 1,148,853 ballot papers, just 199 were marked with a single cross and declared informal, a rate of just 0.02%.</strong></p> <p><strong>And in addition – as I explain later in the post, the ticks and crosses issue arises because parliament hasn’t acted to clarify the law.</strong></p> <p>At ‘The Voice’ referendum, how many people will be confused by the referendum ballot paper? The instructions are very clear to write “Yes” or “No”, but how many are going to be confused and instead use a tick or a cross?</p> <p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" src="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FED2023-SampleReferendumBallot.jpg" alt="" width="407" height="850" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-6699" srcset="https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FED2023-SampleReferendumBallot.jpg 407w, https://antonygreen.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FED2023-SampleReferendumBallot-144x300.jpg 144w" sizes="(max-width: 407px) 100vw, 407px" /></p> <p>This has become an issue because the Referendum (Machinery Provisions) Act states that where a voter has not written Yes or No, the ballot paper will be assessed for intent.</p> <p>Unlike NSW electoral law, the Referendum Act doesn’t provide specific guidance on how to deal with ticks and crosses. The Referendum Act was amended earlier this year to deal with ballots marked with ‘Y’ or ‘N’, but everything else is still left to assessment of intent.</p> <p>On the Australian Electoral Commission’s legal advice, the intent provision means a tick is a sign of agreement and will be counted as a Yes, but a cross is ambiguous in intent and will be treated as informal. This is the same ruling that applied at four referendums in 1988 and two in 1999.</p> <p>Parliament could have amended the Act at any time in the last 35 years to address ticks and crosses, as NSW has done four times in the same period. But the politicians haven’t addressed it and now some attack the Electoral Commissioner, despite him simply applying the law as written by politicians, and despite using the same rules as applied by commissioners going back to the 1980s.</p> <p>This morning <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/15/no-campaigners-make-unfounded-claims-that-crosses-on-ballots-could-invalidate-5-of-referendum-vote">“The Guardian” reports a field director for Fair Australia as saying that crosses could account for up to 5% of the vote being discounted</a>. </p> <p>This is a ridiculous figure in my experience. Due to preferential voting, Australia is devoid of ballot papers with instructions to use a tick or a cross.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/how-many-voters-mark-referendum-ballot-papers-with-a-cross-not-many-based-on-evidence/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">How many Voters mark Referendum Ballot Papers with a Cross? Not many based on evidence.</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-6695" class="post-6695 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-referendums tag-referendums tag-the-voice layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/a-quick-and-easy-referendum-voting-guide/" rel="bookmark">A Quick and Easy Referendum Voting Guide</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2023-09-06T21:52:59+10:00" content="2023-09-06">September 6, 2023</time><time class="updated" datetime="2023-09-12T07:39:30+10:00">September 12, 2023</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(<strong>Update</strong> – the writ for the referendum was issued on Monday 11 September and you can now <a href="https://forms.aec.gov.au/PostalVoteApplication/Home/Index/5a2f68b8-64e5-494a-ade9-b06e00cb1677">apply for a postal vote through the AEC website</a>. The electoral roll will close on Monday 18 September.)</p> <p>Over the last fortnight I have read several referendum voting guides that are over-long, over-complicated and in some cases downright confusing.</p> <p>What needs to be understood is that the process of turning up to vote at a referendum is exactly the same as at a general election.</p> <p>With one single exception – a different ballot paper is used.</p> <p>All the options on when, where and by what method you vote are identical to last year’s Federal election.</p> <p>In this post I am not addressing whether you should vote for or against the referendum. Every household in the country has been sent a guide to the referendum including the official Yes and No cases. The media and internet are full of information about the referendum and its consequences, though not all of the information is accurate.</p> <p>In this post I’m trying to de-mystify the process with a simple FAQ about voting at the referendum.</p> <p>Let me start with the only real difference in the process – the ballot paper and how to complete it.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/a-quick-and-easy-referendum-voting-guide/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">A Quick and Easy Referendum Voting Guide</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div class="nv-sidebar-wrap col-sm-12 nv-right blog-sidebar " > <aside id="secondary" role="complementary"> <div id="email-subscribers-form-1" class="widget widget_email-subscribers-form"><div class="emaillist" id="es_form_f1-n1"><form action="/2023/09/#es_form_f1-n1" method="post" class="es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form es_ajax_subscription_form" 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