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Que sont les extrêmes ? </a> </li> <li class="list-group-item "> <a class="d-block" title=" CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES MAJEURS, Les rouages des extrêmes" href="/encyclopedie/changement-climatique-et-evenements-meteorologiques-majeurs/2-les-rouages-des-extremes/"> 2. Les rouages des extrêmes </a> </li> <li class="list-group-item "> <a class="d-block" title=" CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES MAJEURS, Les enjeux de recherche sur des extrêmes climatiques" href="/encyclopedie/changement-climatique-et-evenements-meteorologiques-majeurs/3-les-enjeux-de-recherche-sur-des-extremes-climatiques/"> 3. Les enjeux de recherche sur des extrêmes climatiques </a> </li> <li class="list-group-item "> <a class="d-block" title=" CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES MAJEURS, Bibliographie" href="/encyclopedie/changement-climatique-et-evenements-meteorologiques-majeurs/4-bibliographie/"> 4. Bibliographie </a> </li> </ul> <button class="btn btn-sm btn-universalis" data-bs-toggle="collapse" data-bs-target="#free-toc" aria-expanded="false" title="Afficher / masquer le sommaire"> <i aria-hidden="true" class="fa fa-fw fa-eye"></i> Sommaire </button> </div> <h1 class="mb-1"> <strong> CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES MAJEURS</strong> </h1> <ul class="pagination justify-content-center public-links "><li class="page-item active"><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 1" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">1</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 2" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">2</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 3" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">3</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 4" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">4</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 5" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">5</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 6" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">6</a></li></ul><p class="text-sm text-muted mb-1">Article modifié le <time datetime="2025-01-29"> 29/01/2025 </time></p><div class="content paged type-article" ><div class="block_1" data-ucode="yC150021_0"><i class="anchor" id="yC150021_0"></i><p> L’expression « extrême météorologique » désigne les manifestations les plus visibles de la variabilité climatique. De fait, nous-mêmes et les <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Le terme « écosystème » désigne un groupe d'êtres vivants – parfois désigné sous le nom de biocénose (animaux, végétaux et microorganismes) – et de composantes physiques et chimiques – parfois regroupées sous le terme de biotope . Il correspond à une vision intégrative de la nature, centrée sur le concept d’interaction : toute composante de l’écosystème, vi..." title="Article : ÉCOSYSTÈMES" href="/encyclopedie/ecosystemes/">écosystèmes</a> sommes plus sensibles à des événements climatiques dévastateurs souvent brefs qu’à une élévation de température de quelques dixièmes de degrés sur plusieurs décennies. En outre, la rapidité et la systématisation de la diffusion de l’information par les médias nous donnent le sentiment que de plus en plus de phénomènes extrêmes sont recensés : il suffit qu’une anomalie soit perçue localement par une personne pour qu’elle soit relayée à l’échelle planétaire en quelques heures. Cette véritable inflation du nombre de phénomènes recensés pose la question de la pertinence de leur relation avec le changement climatique qui est observé depuis le début du <span class="pc">xx</span><sup>e</sup> siècle.</p><div class="clearfix"></div></div><div class="block_1" data-ucode="yC150021_1"><i class="anchor" id="yC150021_1"></i><h2>Que sont les extrêmes ?</h2><div class="block_2" data-ucode="yC150021_1_0"><i class="anchor" id="yC150021_1_0"></i><h3>Trois catégories de définitions</h3><p>Il est important de donner une définition aussi précise que possible aux termes qu’on emploie. On constate que des communautés scientifiques utilisent souvent l’expression « extrême météorologique » pour désigner des phénomènes assez différents. </p><p>On distingue trois catégories de définitions pour les extrêmes ; chacune dépend de la discipline scientifique qui les étudie [Jeandel et Mossery, 2011]. Pour les statisticiens, l’extrême est indiqué par les très grandes valeurs d’une grandeur mesurée, c’est-à-dire les valeurs qui s’écartent considérablement de la moyenne et des valeurs qui gravitent autour de la moyenne. On parle de « queue de la distribution statistique » pour parler d’extrêmes, et donc des valeurs très grandes (ou très petites), qui sont toutefois rarement atteintes. Par exemple, si l’on s’intéresse aux variations quotidiennes de température à Paris en été, les extrêmes chauds arrivent quand le thermomètre dépasse 35 <sup>0</sup>C. Si on trace la courbe des valeurs enregistrées à Paris (c’est-à-dire la distribution <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="Le mot « statistique » désigne à la fois un ensemble de données d'observation et l'activité qui consiste dans leur recueil, leur traitement et leur interprétation.. Au cours de l'histoire, la collecte d'observations et la méthodologie de leur emploi se sont développées de façons largement indépendantes. Aujourd'hui, le recueil de statistiques est une activité importante, indispensab..." title="Article : STATISTIQUE" href="/encyclopedie/statistique/">statistique</a> de la température), la valeur de 35<sup>0</sup> se situe dans la queue supérieure de la distribution. La définition statistique de l’extrême est donc très simple et on peut utiliser un arsenal de théories ad hoc (qui, en revanche, ne sont pas élémentaires) pour décrire des observations, faire des prévisions, calculer des incertitudes. Grâce à ce paradigme, on peut traiter les extrêmes de vent de la même manière que les extrêmes de température ou de précipitation : ce seront, à peu de chose près, les mêmes équations statistiques.</p><p>Les physiciens ont une définition phénoménologique de l’extrême météorologique ; ils définissent les événements comme « vague de froid », « vague de chaleur », « tempête », « sécheresse », « événement cévenol ». Dans ce cas, le phénomène « tempête » n’a rien à voir avec une « vague de chaleur », car les variables et les mécanismes physiques qui conduisent à ces événements sont différents. Par exemple, quand on parle de tempête extratropicale (comme, en Europe, les tempêtes Lothar et Martin en décembre 1999), il s’agit d’instabilités de pression qui se déplacent vers l’est à des vitesses d’une soixantaine de kilomètres par heure, mais ce déplacement s’accompagne de vitesses de vent pouvant dépasser 150 kilomètres par heure. La définition du physicien est également quantitative pour certains extrêmes (comme les tempêtes, vagues de chaleur, vagues de froid). Notamment, si on parle de tempêtes, le physicien va distinguer les tempêtes extratropicales des tempêtes méditerranéennes (qui conduisent aux épisodes cévenols dans le sud de la France). Les deux types de phénomènes conduisent à des pluies et des <a data-bs-toggle="popover" data-bs-content="L' échauffement de la Terre par le rayonnement solaire est très irrégulier. Le mécanisme, simplifié à l'extrême, est le suivant : l' air au contact des sols ensoleillés s'échauffe ; cet air chaud, donc plus léger, exerce à la surface du sol une pression inférieure à la moyenne. C'est ainsi que se créent des zones de basses pressions, ou dépressions. Inversement, l'ai..." title="Article : VENTS" href="/encyclopedie/vents/">vents</a> intenses, mais leurs origines et leurs portées géographiques sont complètement différentes. Il ne suffit donc pas d’étudier la queue de la distribution du vent ou de la pluie pour qualifier l’événement,<a href="javascript:" title="Lire la suite" class="read-more ms-1">[...]</a></p></div></div><div class="clearfix"></div></div><ul class="pagination justify-content-center public-links "><li class="page-item active"><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 1" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">1</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 2" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">2</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 3" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">3</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 4" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">4</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 5" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">5</a></li><li class="page-item "><a href="/abonnement" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="page 6" class="page-link" title="Abonnez-vous" data-loaded="true">6</a></li></ul><div class="folio-block"><p class="folio-block-title text-center text-uc"><strong>La suite de cet article est accessible aux abonnés</strong></p><ul class="list-unstyled"><li><i class="fa fa-fw fa-check-circle"></i> Des contenus variés, complets et fiables</li><li><i class="fa fa-fw fa-check-circle"></i> Accessible sur tous les écrans</li><li><i class="fa fa-fw fa-check-circle"></i> Pas de publicité</li></ul><p class="text-center"><a href="/abonnement/" class="btn btn-cta text-uc" id="folio-button" data-matomo-category="Article" data-matomo-name="Folio" data-matomo-value="Block bottom">Découvrez nos offres </a></p><p class="text-center text-sm"> Déjà abonné ? <a href="/identification/" id="folio-login">Se connecter</a></p></div><div id="ad_mpuslot" class="pub-container text-center"><div class="pub-placeholder"></div></div><section class="mt-3 mb-5"><i class="anchor" id="C150021_AUTHORS"></i><p class="title-minor">Écrit par</p><ul class="list-group"><li class="list-group-item" data-dc-author="YIOU, Pascal"><a title="Auteur : Pascal YIOU" rel="author" href="/auteurs/pascal-yiou/"><strong>Pascal YIOU</strong></a> : chercheur au Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives </li></ul></section><section class="mb-5"><div class="text-center mb-3 d-print-none"><a class="d-inline-flex flex-row justify-content-center align-items-center btn btn-light btn-large text-start" title="Carte mentale : CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ET ÉVÉNEMENTS MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES MAJEURS" href="/carte-mentale/changement-climatique-et-evenements-meteorologiques-majeurs/"><i class="fa fa-sitemap fa-rotate-270 me-1 fs-1 text-universalis"></i><p class="m-0"><strong class="fs-4">Carte mentale</strong><br /> Élargissez votre recherche dans Universalis </p></a></div></section> <section class="mb-5 article-classification" data-print-label="la classification" data-print-target=".article-classification"> <i class="anchor" id="yC150021_ROOT_LINES"></i> <p class="title-minor">Classification</p> <nav aria-label="Classification 1"> <ol class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Sciences de la Terre" href="/classification/sciences-de-la-terre/"> Sciences de la Terre </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Météorologie" href="/classification/sciences-de-la-terre/meteorologie/"> Météorologie </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Atmosphère et phénomènes météorologiques" href="/classification/sciences-de-la-terre/meteorologie/atmosphere-et-phenomenes-meteorologiques/"> Atmosphère et phénomènes météorologiques </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item active" data-dc-subject="Risques et catastrophes météorologiques"> <a title="Classification : Risques et catastrophes météorologiques" href="/classification/sciences-de-la-terre/meteorologie/atmosphere-et-phenomenes-meteorologiques/risques-et-catastrophes-meteorologiques/"> Risques et catastrophes météorologiques </a> </li> </ol> </nav> <nav aria-label="Classification 2"> <ol class="breadcrumb"> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Sciences de la Terre" href="/classification/sciences-de-la-terre/"> Sciences de la Terre </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item"> <a title="Classification : Climatologie" href="/classification/sciences-de-la-terre/climatologie/"> Climatologie </a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb-item active" data-dc-subject="Variations climatiques"> <a title="Classification : Variations climatiques" href="/classification/sciences-de-la-terre/climatologie/variations-climatiques/"> Variations climatiques </a> </li> </ol> </nav> </section> <section class="mb-5 d-print-none"> <i class="anchor" id="yC150021_MEDIAS"></i> <p class="title-minor">Médias</p> <div class="row"> <div class="col-12 col-md-6 text-center p-1"> <figure class="figure text-center w-100 mb-0 p-1" style="position: relative"> <a data-ucode="CA151094" data-showMediaPlayer="1" class="protected media-reference-copy " title="Média : Cartes de pression dans l'Atlantique nord en hiver" href="/media/cartes-de-pression-dans-latlantique-nord-en-hiver-ca151094/"> <img id="CA151094" loading="lazy" src="/typo3temp/assets/_processed_/d/f/csm_ca151094_a5419fe979.webp" class="figure-img rounded mx-auto media_resized" alt="Cartes de pression dans l'Atlantique nord en hiver - crédits : Encyclopædia Universalis France" data-description="Cartes des quatre situations de pression privilégiées en hiver (en hectopascals) autour de l'Atlantique nord [a : oscillation Nord-Atlantique négative (NAO) ; b : blocage scandinave (BLO) ; c : Atlantic Ridge (AR) ; d : circulation ouest-est très intense (dite zonale, ZO)]. Les mouvements d'air…" data-copyright="Encyclopædia Universalis France" width="1872" height="800" /> </a> <figcaption class="figure-caption"> <p class="m-0 mt-1 fw-bold text-gray-700 text-truncate"> Cartes de pression dans l'Atlantique nord en hiver </p> <p class="m-0 copyright text-sm text-gray-700 text-truncate"> Encyclopædia Universalis France </p> </figcaption> </figure> </div> <div class="col-12 col-md-6 text-center p-1"> <figure class="figure text-center w-100 mb-0 p-1" style="position: relative"> <a data-ucode="DE1510954" data-showMediaPlayer="1" class="protected media-reference-copy " title="Média : Mécanismes à l'origine de fortes températures estivales&nbsp; " href="/media/mecanismes-a-lorigine-de-fortes-temperatures-estivales-nbsp-de1510954/"> <img id="DE1510954" loading="lazy" src="/typo3temp/assets/_processed_/0/2/csm_de1510954_3001c2c931.webp" class="figure-img rounded mx-auto media_resized" alt=" Mécanismes à l'origine de fortes températures estivales&nbsp; - crédits : Encyclopædia Universalis France" data-description=" Résumé des conditions nécessaires au développement d’une canicule estivale en France (source : B. Quesada, 2012). " data-copyright="Encyclopædia Universalis France" width="2000" height="980" /> </a> <figcaption class="figure-caption"> <p class="m-0 mt-1 fw-bold text-gray-700 text-truncate"> Mécanismes à l'origine de fortes températures estivales  </p> <p class="m-0 copyright text-sm text-gray-700 text-truncate"> Encyclopædia Universalis France </p> </figcaption> </figure> </div> </div> </section> <section class="mb-5 d-print-none article-indexes learn-more"> <i class="anchor" id="yC150021_INDEXES"></i> <p class="title-minor">Voir aussi</p> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet"> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : SÉCHERESSE" href="/index/secheresse/"> <span class="rg">SÉCHERESSE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CLIMATS" href="/index/climats/"> <span class="rg">CLIMATS</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CATASTROPHES NATURELLES" href="/index/catastrophes-naturelles/"> <span class="rg">CATASTROPHES NATURELLES</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : TEMPS, météorologie" href="/index/temps-meteorologie/"> <span class="rg">TEMPS, </span><em class="it">météorologie</em> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE" href="/index/changement-climatique/"> <span class="rg">CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CLIMATIQUES VARIATIONS" href="/index/variations-climatiques/"> <span class="rg">CLIMATIQUES </span><span class="pc">VARIATIONS</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : CANICULE" href="/index/canicule/"> <span class="rg">CANICULE</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : TEMPÊTES" href="/index/tempetes/"> <span class="rg">TEMPÊTES</span> </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item m-1"> <a title="Index : PHÉNOMÈNE MÉTÉOROLOGIQUE EXTRÊME" href="/index/phenomene-meteorologique-extreme/"> <span class="rg">PHÉNOMÈNE MÉTÉOROLOGIQUE EXTRÊME</span> </a> </li> </ul> </section> </div> <div class="col-lg-4 col-xl-3 px-0 d-none d-lg-block side-bar position-relative"> <div id="ad_rightslot" class="pub-container text-center"> <div class="pub-placeholder"></div> </div> <div id="ad_rightslot2" class="pub-container text-center"> <div class="pub-placeholder"></div> </div> <a class="wrapper cta" href="/abonnement" title="Abonnez-vous à Universalis pour 1 euro" data-matomo-category="CTA" data-matomo-name="Clic" data-matomo-value="Col right"> <img src="/typo3temp/assets/_processed_/b/6/csm_abo-3_74169bae4d.webp" class="full-height" loading="lazy" width="290" height="476" alt="Abonnez-vous à Universalis pour 1 euro"> </a> <div id="newsletter_subscription" class="wrapper p-3"> <p class="fs-3 fw-bold text-center text-light mb-1">Rejoignez-nous</p> <p class="text-center"> Inscrivez-vous à notre <strong>newsletter</strong></p> <div class="input-group mb-3"> <input type="text" class="form-control" placeholder="votre email"> <div class="input-group-append"> <button id="newsletter_subscription_button" class="btn btn-primary text-uppercase" type="button"> <strong>S'inscrire</strong></button> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </main> <div id="bandeau-footer"> <div class="container"> <p><a href="/abonnement" title="Abonnez-vous à Universalis pour 1 euro">Accédez à l'intégralité d'Universalis.fr <strong>sans publicité</strong></a></p> </div> </div> <footer class="container footer text-center d-print-none"> <ul class="list-inline list-inline-bullet mb-2"> <li class="list-inline-item"> <a href="http://www.encyclopaedia-universalis.fr/" title="Encyclopædia Universalis" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Encyclopædia Universalis </a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item"> <a href="https://www.encyclopaedia-universalis.fr/nous-contacter/infos/" title="Contactez-nous" rel="noopener nofollow" target="_blank">Contact</a></li> <li class="list-inline-item"> <a title="Mentions légales" rel="nofollow" href="/mentions-legales/">Mentions légales et politique de confidentialité</a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item"> <a title="Crédits images Accueil" rel="nofollow" href="/credits-illustrations/">Crédits images</a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item"> <a href="https://abonnement.universalis.fr/typo3conf/ext/mailer/Resources/Public/Pdf/cgv.pdf" rel="noopener nofollow" target="_blank" title="Conditions générales de vente">CGV</a> </li> <li class="list-inline-item"> <a href="javascript:" id="rgpd" rel="nofollow" title="Consentement RGPD">RGPD</a> </li> </ul> <p class="mb-2">Consulter le <a title="Dictionnaire de l'Encyclopædia Universalis" href="/dictionnaire/"> dictionnaire </a> de l'Encyclopædia Universalis </p> <p class="mb-3">© 2025 Encyclopædia Universalis France. 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