The North Korea Threat

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srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_768x432_crop_top-center_none/North-Korea-Asia-Site-Getty-Header.jpg"> <source media="(min-width: 376px)" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_600x400_crop_top-center_none/North-Korea-Asia-Site-Getty-Header.jpg"> <source media="(min-width: 320px)" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_375x250_crop_top-center_none/North-Korea-Asia-Site-Getty-Header.jpg">  <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" alt=""> </picture> </figure> </div> <div class="article__header -overlap -blue wrapper -extra-large"> <div class="attribution-block"> <button class="image-attribution credit sans-serif fz11 margin-bottom-1em animated-link" aria-label="Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images"> <span class="image-attribution__label">Image Credit</span> </button> </div> <p class="overlap-label margin-bottom"> <span class="overlap-label__underline">Part of</span> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/research/indo-pacific-security"> <span class="chevron -left -gray"></span> Indo-Pacific Security </a> </p> <h1 class="page-title">The North Korea Threat</h1> </div> </header> <div class="wrapper wysiwyg margin-vertical"> <p><p>Nearly seven decades have passed since the Korean Armistice Agreement was signed, yet the Korean Peninsula is still divided and an authoritarian dictatorship in Pyongyang frequently threatens to destabilize the region. </p> <p>The primary areas of focus for the Indo-Pacific Security Program in 2021 include developing innovative recommendations for the new Biden Administration to consider that will encourage North Korean denuclearization and assessing alternative policy tools, should North Korea continue to expand its nuclear arsenal.</p> <p>In a series of five papers, CNAS has developed a comprehensive “diplomacy handbook” to strengthen U.S. engagement with North Korea if Pyongyang takes concrete steps toward denuclearization and to mitigate risk in alternative scenarios. This handbook is intended to equip policymakers with creative and specific recommendations for tension reduction measures and to help establish a more durable peace that promotes U.S. interests in the region.<br /></p> <p align="center"><a href="https://www.cnas.org/north-korea-diplomacy-handbook" class="button" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Read the full series</a> <br /></p></p> </div> <p class="center"><a href="https://www.cnas.org/support-cnas" class="button -solid">Support CNAS</a></p> <section class="featured-block margin-vertical-2x"> <h2 class="featured-block__title">Highlights</h2> <ul class="featured-listing"> <li> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/tangled-threats" aria-label="Tangled Threats: Integrating U.S. Strategies toward China and North Korea - image link"> <img src="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_600x360_crop_center-center_none/IPS-China-North-Korea-knot-final2.jpg" width="285" height="190" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Reports</span> </div> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/tangled-threats" class="sans-serif fz14 bold margin-top-half-em">Tangled Threats: Integrating U.S. Strategies toward China and North Korea</a> <p class="fz13 sans-serif margin-vertical-half-em"> China and North Korea pose intertwined challenges for U.S. and allied policy. The Korean Peninsula constitutes just one area among many in U.S.-China relations. Meanwhile, iss... </p> <p class="fz15 margin-top-half-em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Jacob Stokes </p> </li> <li> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/renew-elevate-modernize-a-blueprint-for-a-21st-century-u-s-rok-alliance-strategy" aria-label="Renew, Elevate, Modernize: A Blueprint for a 21st-Century U.S.-ROK Alliance Strategy - image link"> <img src="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_600x360_crop_center-center_none/US-ROK-Asia-Web-hero.jpg" width="285" height="190" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Reports</span> </div> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/renew-elevate-modernize-a-blueprint-for-a-21st-century-u-s-rok-alliance-strategy" class="sans-serif fz14 bold margin-top-half-em">Renew, Elevate, Modernize: A Blueprint for a 21st-Century U.S.-ROK Alliance Strategy</a> <p class="fz13 sans-serif margin-vertical-half-em"> The U.S.-South Korean alliance has the potential to play a central role in bolstering a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.... </p> <p class="fz15 margin-top-half-em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Kristine Lee, Joshua Fitt & Coby Goldberg </p> </li> <li> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/risk-realism" aria-label="Risk Realism - image link"> <img src="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_600x360_crop_center-center_none/Hero-North-Korea-Van-Jackson-03.jpg" width="285" height="190" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Reports</span> </div> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/risk-realism" class="sans-serif fz14 bold margin-top-half-em">Risk Realism</a> <p class="fz13 sans-serif margin-vertical-half-em"> In a new report, Dr. Van Jackson argues that while pursuing North Korean denuclearization is ideal for U.S. national interests, it is no longer realistic for the near-term fut... </p> <p class="fz15 margin-top-half-em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Van Jackson </p> </li> </ul> </section> </article> <section class="wrapper -extra-large margin-vertical-2x"> <h2 class="section-title margin-bottom-half-em">Recent Publications</h2> <div class="wrapper"> <ul class="entry-listing"> <li class="-with-image"> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/what-will-north-korean-cybercrime-look-like-in-2022" target="" aria-label="What Will North Korean Cybercrime Look Like in 2022? - image link"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset=" https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_165x110_crop_center-center_none/north-korea-cyber-digital.jpeg 165w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_285x190_crop_center-center_none/north-korea-cyber-digital.jpeg 285w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_400x267_crop_center-center_none/north-korea-cyber-digital.jpeg 400w" sizes="(min-width: 600px) 285px, (min-width: 430px) 400px, calc(100vw - 30px)" width="400" height="267" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Commentary</span> </div> <ul class="entry-listing__meta"> <li>The Diplomat</li> <li>December 22, 2021</li> </ul> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/what-will-north-korean-cybercrime-look-like-in-2022" target="" class="sans-serif fz16 bold margin-top-half-em">What Will North Korean Cybercrime Look Like in 2022?</a> <p class="fz15 margin-top-1em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Jason Bartlett </p> </li> <li class="-with-image"> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/duyeon-kim-testifies-before-european-parliaments-committee-on-foreign-affairs" target="" aria-label="Duyeon Kim testifies before European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs - image link"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset=" 165w, 285w, 400w" sizes="(min-width: 600px) 285px, (min-width: 430px) 400px, calc(100vw - 30px)" width="400" height="267" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Congressional Testimony</span> </div> <ul class="entry-listing__meta"> <li>December 3, 2021</li> </ul> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/congressional-testimony/duyeon-kim-testifies-before-european-parliaments-committee-on-foreign-affairs" target="" class="sans-serif fz16 bold margin-top-half-em">Duyeon Kim testifies before European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs</a> <p class="fz15 margin-top-1em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Dr. Duyeon Kim </p> </li> <li> <ul class="entry-listing__meta -with-label"> <li> <span class="label">Commentary</span> </li> <li>The Diplomat</li> <li>October 29, 2021</li> </ul> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/chinas-new-land-borders-law-is-a-nightmare-for-north-korean-refugees" target="" class="sans-serif fz16 bold margin-top-half-em">China’s New Land Borders Law Is a Nightmare for North Korean Refugees</a> <p class="fz15 margin-top-1em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Jason Bartlett </p> </li> <li class="-with-image"> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/the-two-koreas-recent-arms-displays-are-sending-very-different-messages" target="" aria-label="The Two Koreas’ Recent Arms Displays Are Sending Very Different Messages - image link"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset=" https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_165x110_crop_center-center_none/Moon-Jae-in-Kim-Jong-un-Panmunjon-Getty.jpg 165w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_285x190_crop_center-center_none/Moon-Jae-in-Kim-Jong-un-Panmunjon-Getty.jpg 285w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_400x267_crop_center-center_none/Moon-Jae-in-Kim-Jong-un-Panmunjon-Getty.jpg 400w" sizes="(min-width: 600px) 285px, (min-width: 430px) 400px, calc(100vw - 30px)" width="400" height="267" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Commentary</span> </div> <ul class="entry-listing__meta"> <li>World Politics Review</li> <li>October 21, 2021</li> </ul> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/the-two-koreas-recent-arms-displays-are-sending-very-different-messages" target="" class="sans-serif fz16 bold margin-top-half-em">The Two Koreas’ Recent Arms Displays Are Sending Very Different Messages</a> <p class="fz15 margin-top-1em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Dr. Duyeon Kim </p> </li> <li class="-with-image"> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/unpacking-claims-of-secret-north-korean-intelligence-operations" target="" aria-label="Unpacking Claims of Secret North Korean Intelligence Operations - image link"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset=" https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_165x110_crop_center-center_none/North-Korea-soldiers.jpg 165w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_285x190_crop_center-center_none/North-Korea-soldiers.jpg 285w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_400x267_crop_center-center_none/North-Korea-soldiers.jpg 400w" sizes="(min-width: 600px) 285px, (min-width: 430px) 400px, calc(100vw - 30px)" width="400" height="267" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Commentary</span> </div> <ul class="entry-listing__meta"> <li>The Diplomat</li> <li>October 12, 2021</li> </ul> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/unpacking-claims-of-secret-north-korean-intelligence-operations" target="" class="sans-serif fz16 bold margin-top-half-em">Unpacking Claims of Secret North Korean Intelligence Operations</a> <p class="fz15 margin-top-1em"> <span class="screenreader-only">By</span> Jason Bartlett </p> </li> </ul> <p class="margin-top-1em"> <a href="/reports?area=north-korea" class="button">View All Reports</a> <a href="/articles-multimedia?area=north-korea" class="button">View All Articles & Multimedia</a> </p> </div> </section> <section class="wrapper -extra-large margin-vertical-2x"> <h2 class="section-title margin-bottom-half-em">Related Events</h2> <div class="wrapper -extra-large"> <div class="wrapper -extra-large -clear margin-vertical"> <div class="photo-listing -multiple -c3 "> <figure class="photo-listing__item"> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/events/fireside-chat-deputy-u-s-special-representative-for-north-korea" 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