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class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Temperature data from 1850 to the present time</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Temperature_data_from_1850_to_the_present_time-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Temperature data from 1850 to the present time subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Temperature_data_from_1850_to_the_present_time-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Total_warming_and_trends" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Total_warming_and_trends"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Total warming and trends</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Total_warming_and_trends-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Methods" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Methods"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>Methods</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Methods-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Global_record_from_1850_onwards" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Global_record_from_1850_onwards"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.1</span> <span>Global record from 1850 onwards</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Global_record_from_1850_onwards-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Satellite_and_balloon_temperature_records_(1950s–present)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Satellite_and_balloon_temperature_records_(1950s–present)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.2</span> <span>Satellite and balloon temperature records (1950s–present)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Satellite_and_balloon_temperature_records_(1950s–present)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Global_surface_and_ocean_datasets" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Global_surface_and_ocean_datasets"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.3</span> <span>Global surface and ocean datasets</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Global_surface_and_ocean_datasets-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Absolute_temperatures_v._anomalies" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Absolute_temperatures_v._anomalies"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.4</span> <span>Absolute temperatures v. anomalies</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Absolute_temperatures_v._anomalies-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Siting_of_temperature_measurement_stations" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Siting_of_temperature_measurement_stations"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2.5</span> <span>Siting of temperature measurement stations</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Siting_of_temperature_measurement_stations-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Warmest_periods" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Warmest_periods"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.3</span> <span>Warmest periods</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Warmest_periods-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Warmest_years" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Warmest_years"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.3.1</span> <span>Warmest years</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Warmest_years-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Warmest_decades" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Warmest_decades"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.3.2</span> <span>Warmest decades</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Warmest_decades-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Factors_influencing_global_temperature" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Factors_influencing_global_temperature"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Factors influencing global temperature</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Factors_influencing_global_temperature-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Robustness_of_evidence" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Robustness_of_evidence"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Robustness of evidence</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Robustness_of_evidence-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Robustness of evidence subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Robustness_of_evidence-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Other_reports_and_assessments" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Other_reports_and_assessments"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.1</span> <span>Other reports and assessments</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Other_reports_and_assessments-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Internal_climate_variability_and_global_warming" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Internal_climate_variability_and_global_warming"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.2</span> <span>Internal climate variability and global warming</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Internal_climate_variability_and_global_warming-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Related_research" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Related_research"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>Related research</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Related_research-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Related research subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Related_research-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Trends_and_predictions" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Trends_and_predictions"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.1</span> <span>Trends and predictions</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Trends_and_predictions-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Regional_temperature_changes" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Regional_temperature_changes"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5.2</span> <span>Regional temperature changes</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Regional_temperature_changes-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Temperature_estimates_from_prior_to_1850" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Temperature_estimates_from_prior_to_1850"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>Temperature estimates from prior to 1850</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Temperature_estimates_from_prior_to_1850-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Temperature estimates from prior to 1850 subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Temperature_estimates_from_prior_to_1850-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Tree_rings_and_ice_cores_(from_1,000–2,000_years_before_present)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Tree_rings_and_ice_cores_(from_1,000–2,000_years_before_present)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.1</span> <span>Tree rings and ice cores (from 1,000–2,000 years before present)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Tree_rings_and_ice_cores_(from_1,000–2,000_years_before_present)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Indirect_historical_proxies" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Indirect_historical_proxies"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.1.1</span> <span>Indirect historical proxies</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Indirect_historical_proxies-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Paleoclimate_(from_12,000_years_before_present)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Paleoclimate_(from_12,000_years_before_present)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.2</span> <span>Paleoclimate (from 12,000 years before present)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Paleoclimate_(from_12,000_years_before_present)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Ice_cores_(from_800,000_years_before_present)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ice_cores_(from_800,000_years_before_present)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.3</span> <span>Ice cores (from 800,000 years before present)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ice_cores_(from_800,000_years_before_present)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Ice_core_locations" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ice_core_locations"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.3.1</span> <span>Ice core locations</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ice_core_locations-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Ice_core_records_from_Greenland" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ice_core_records_from_Greenland"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.3.2</span> <span>Ice core records from Greenland</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ice_core_records_from_Greenland-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Ice_core_records_from_Antarctica" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ice_core_records_from_Antarctica"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.3.3</span> <span>Ice core records from Antarctica</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ice_core_records_from_Antarctica-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Ice_core_records_from_low-latitude_regions" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-3"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ice_core_records_from_low-latitude_regions"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.3.4</span> <span>Ice core records from low-latitude regions</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ice_core_records_from_low-latitude_regions-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Geologic_evidence_(millions_of_years)" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Geologic_evidence_(millions_of_years)"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6.4</span> <span>Geologic evidence (millions of years)</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Geologic_evidence_(millions_of_years)-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">9</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" 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class="mw-page-title-main">Global surface temperature</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. 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class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bn mw-list-item"><a href="https://bn.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%B6%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AC%E0%A6%AC%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%AF%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%80_%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%83%E0%A6%A5%E0%A6%BF%E0%A6%AC%E0%A7%80%E0%A6%AA%E0%A7%83%E0%A6%B7%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%A0%E0%A7%87%E0%A6%B0_%E0%A6%A4%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%AA%E0%A6%AE%E0%A6%BE%E0%A6%A4%E0%A7%8D%E0%A6%B0%E0%A6%BE" title="বিশ্বব্যাপী পৃথিবীপৃষ্ঠের তাপমাত্রা – Bangla" lang="bn" hreflang="bn" data-title="বিশ্বব্যাপী পৃথিবীপৃষ্ঠের তাপমাত্রা" data-language-autonym="বাংলা" data-language-local-name="Bangla" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>বাংলা</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glob%C3%A1ln%C3%AD_povrchov%C3%A1_teplota" title="Globální povrchová teplota – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Globální povrchová teplota" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%A7%80%EA%B5%AC_%ED%91%9C%EB%A9%B4_%EC%98%A8%EB%8F%84" title="지구 표면 온도 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="지구 표면 온도" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ha mw-list-item"><a href="https://ha.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yanayin_yanayin_duniya" title="Yanayin yanayin duniya – Hausa" lang="ha" hreflang="ha" data-title="Yanayin yanayin duniya" data-language-autonym="Hausa" data-language-local-name="Hausa" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Hausa</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ml mw-list-item"><a href="https://ml.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B4%86%E0%B4%97%E0%B5%8B%E0%B4%B3_%E0%B4%89%E0%B4%AA%E0%B4%B0%E0%B4%BF%E0%B4%A4%E0%B4%B2_%E0%B4%A4%E0%B4%BE%E0%B4%AA%E0%B4%A8%E0%B4%BF%E0%B4%B2" title="ആഗോള ഉപരിതല താപനില – Malayalam" lang="ml" hreflang="ml" data-title="ആഗോള ഉപരിതല താപനില" data-language-autonym="മലയാളം" data-language-local-name="Malayalam" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>മലയാളം</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ps mw-list-item"><a href="https://ps.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AF_%DA%81%D9%85%DA%A9%DB%90_%D8%AF_%D8%B3%D8%B7%D8%AD%DB%90_%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%AE%D9%87" title="د ځمکې د سطحې تودوخه – Pashto" lang="ps" hreflang="ps" data-title="د ځمکې د سطحې تودوخه" data-language-autonym="پښتو" data-language-local-name="Pashto" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>پښتو</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a 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<div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"><span class="mw-redirectedfrom">(Redirected from <a href="/w/index.php?title=Instrumental_temperature_record&redirect=no" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a>)</span></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Average temperature of the Earth's surface</div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">This article is about the average temperature at the Earth's surface (at the present time and in the past). For records of extreme weather events, see <a href="/wiki/List_of_weather_records" title="List of weather records">List of weather records</a>.</div> <p class="mw-empty-elt"> </p> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Common_Era_Temperature.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/Common_Era_Temperature.svg/220px-Common_Era_Temperature.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="165" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/Common_Era_Temperature.svg/330px-Common_Era_Temperature.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/Common_Era_Temperature.svg/440px-Common_Era_Temperature.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="720" /></a><figcaption>The blue line represents global surface temperature reconstructed over the last 2,000 years using <a href="/wiki/Proxy_data" class="mw-redirect" title="Proxy data">proxy data</a> from <a href="/wiki/Tree_rings" class="mw-redirect" title="Tree rings">tree rings</a>, <a href="/wiki/Coral" title="Coral">corals</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The red line shows direct surface temperature measurements since 1880.<sup id="cite_ref-nasa_temperatures2_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nasa_temperatures2-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p><b>Global surface temperature</b> (<b>GST</b>) is the average temperature of <a href="/wiki/Earth" title="Earth">Earth</a>'s surface. More precisely, it is the <a href="/wiki/Weighted_average" class="mw-redirect" title="Weighted average">weighted average</a> of the temperatures over the <a href="/wiki/Ocean" title="Ocean">ocean</a> and land. The former is also called <a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a> and the latter is called <a href="/wiki/Surface_air_temperature" class="mw-redirect" title="Surface air temperature">surface air temperature</a>. Temperature data comes mainly from <a href="/wiki/Weather_station" title="Weather station">weather stations</a> and <a href="/wiki/Satellite" title="Satellite">satellites</a>. To estimate data in the distant past, <a href="/wiki/Proxy_data" class="mw-redirect" title="Proxy data">proxy data</a> can be used for example from <a href="/wiki/Tree_rings" class="mw-redirect" title="Tree rings">tree rings</a>, <a href="/wiki/Coral" title="Coral">corals</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Observing the rising GST over time is one of the many lines of evidence supporting the <a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">scientific consensus on climate change</a>, which is that <a href="/wiki/Climate_change" title="Climate change">human activities are causing climate change</a>. Alternative terms for the same thing are <b>global mean surface temperature</b> (GMST) or <b>global average surface temperature</b>. </p><p>Series of reliable temperature measurements in some regions began in the 1850—1880 time frame (this is called the <i>instrumental temperature record</i>). The longest-running temperature record is the <a href="/wiki/Central_England_temperature" title="Central England temperature">Central England temperature</a> data series, which starts in 1659. The longest-running quasi-global records start in 1850.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For temperature measurements in the <a href="/wiki/Upper_atmosphere" title="Upper atmosphere">upper atmosphere</a> a variety of methods can be used. This includes radiosondes launched using weather balloons, a variety of satellites, and aircraft.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Satellites can monitor temperatures in the upper atmosphere but are not commonly used to measure temperature change at the surface. Ocean temperatures at different depths are measured to add to global surface temperature datasets. This data is also used to calculate the <a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">ocean heat content</a>. </p><p>Through 1940, the average annual temperature increased, but was relatively stable between 1940 and 1975. Since 1975, it has increased by roughly 0.15 °C to 0.20 °C per decade, to at least 1.1 °C (1.9 °F) above 1880 levels.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The current annual GMST is about 15 °C (59 °F),<sup id="cite_ref-NASAtemp_20230904_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NASAtemp_20230904-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> though monthly temperatures can vary almost 2 °C (4 °F) above or below this figure.<sup id="cite_ref-Copernicus_20230615_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Copernicus_20230615-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The global average and combined land and <a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">ocean surface temperature</a> show a warming of 1.09 °C (range: 0.95 to 1.20 °C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020, based on multiple independently produced datasets.<sup id="cite_ref-:03_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:03-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 5">: 5 </span></sup> The trend is faster since the 1970s than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years.<sup id="cite_ref-:03_8-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:03-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 8">: 8 </span></sup> Within that upward trend, some variability in temperatures happens because of <a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">natural internal variability</a> (for example due to <a href="/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation" title="El Niño–Southern Oscillation">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a>). </p><p>The global temperature record shows the changes of the <a href="/wiki/Temperature" title="Temperature">temperature</a> of the atmosphere and the oceans through various spans of time. There are numerous estimates of temperatures since the end of the <a href="/wiki/Pleistocene" title="Pleistocene">Pleistocene</a> <a href="/wiki/Glaciation" class="mw-redirect" title="Glaciation">glaciation</a>, particularly during the current <a href="/wiki/Holocene" title="Holocene">Holocene</a> epoch. Some temperature information is available through geologic evidence, going back millions of years. More recently, information from <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a> covers the period from 800,000 years ago until now. <a href="/wiki/Tree_Rings" class="mw-redirect" title="Tree Rings">Tree rings</a> and measurements from ice cores can give evidence about the global temperature from 1,000-2,000 years before the present until now.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Definition">Definition</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Definition"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Projected_Change_in_Temperatures.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/Projected_Change_in_Temperatures.svg/220px-Projected_Change_in_Temperatures.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="220" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/Projected_Change_in_Temperatures.svg/330px-Projected_Change_in_Temperatures.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/Projected_Change_in_Temperatures.svg/440px-Projected_Change_in_Temperatures.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="960" /></a><figcaption>Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on <a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project#CMIP_Phase_6" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">CMIP6</a> multi-model mean changes</figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a> defines <i>global mean surface temperature</i> (GMST) as the "estimated global average of <a href="/wiki/Near-surface_air_temperature" class="mw-redirect" title="Near-surface air temperature">near-surface air temperatures</a> over land and sea ice, and <a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a> (SST) over ice-free ocean regions, with changes normally expressed as departures from a value over a specified reference period".<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_glossary_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_glossary-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2231">: 2231 </span></sup> </p><p>Put simply, the global surface temperature (GST) is calculated by averaging the temperature at the surface layer of the ocean (<a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a>) and over land (<a href="/wiki/Surface_air_temperature" class="mw-redirect" title="Surface air temperature">surface air temperature</a>). </p><p>In comparison, the <i>global mean surface air temperature</i> (GSAT) is the "global average of near-surface air temperatures over land, oceans and <a href="/wiki/Sea_ice" title="Sea ice">sea ice</a>. Changes in GSAT are often used as a measure of global temperature change in climate models."<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_glossary_10-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_glossary-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2231">: 2231 </span></sup> </p><p><i>Global temperature</i> can have different definitions. There is a small difference between air and surface temperatures.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_SR15_SPM_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_SR15_SPM-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 12">: 12 </span></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Temperature_data_from_1850_to_the_present_time">Temperature data from 1850 to the present time</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Temperature data from 1850 to the present time"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Total_warming_and_trends">Total warming and trends</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Total warming and trends"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Climate_change#Global_temperature_rise" title="Climate change">Climate change § Global temperature rise</a></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><span><video id="mwe_player_0" poster="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/220px--1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.jpg" controls="" preload="none" data-mw-tmh="" class="mw-file-element" width="220" height="124" data-durationhint="30" data-mwtitle="1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm" data-mwprovider="wikimediacommons" resource="/wiki/File:1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm"><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.480p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="480p.vp9.webm" data-width="854" data-height="480" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.720p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="720p.vp9.webm" data-width="1280" data-height="720" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.1080p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="1080p.vp9.webm" data-width="1920" data-height="1080" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9"" data-width="3840" data-height="2160" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.144p.mjpeg.mov" type="video/quicktime" data-transcodekey="144p.mjpeg.mov" data-width="256" data-height="144" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.240p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="240p.vp9.webm" data-width="426" data-height="240" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.360p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="360p.vp9.webm" data-width="640" data-height="360" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/b/b9/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm/1880-_Global_surface_temperature_-_heat_map_animation_-_NASA_SVS.webm.360p.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp8, vorbis"" data-transcodekey="360p.webm" data-width="640" data-height="360" /></video></span><figcaption>NASA animation portrays global surface temperature changes from 1880 to 2023. The colour blue denotes cooler temperatures and red denotes warmer temperatures.</figcaption></figure><p>Changes in global temperatures over the past century provide evidence for the effects of increasing <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gases</a>. When the <a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">climate system</a> reacts to such changes, <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_(general_concept)" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change (general concept)">climate change</a> follows. Measurement of the GST is one of the many lines of evidence supporting the <a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">scientific consensus on climate change</a>, which is that <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">humans are causing warming of Earth's climate system</a>. </p><p>The global average and combined land and <a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">ocean surface temperature</a>, show a warming of 1.09 °C (range: 0.95 to 1.20 °C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020, based on multiple independently produced datasets.<sup id="cite_ref-:03_8-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:03-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 5">: 5 </span></sup> The trend is faster since the 1970s than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years.<sup id="cite_ref-:03_8-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:03-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 8">: 8 </span></sup> </p><p>Most of the observed warming occurred in two periods: around 1900 to around 1940 and around 1970 onwards;<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> the cooling/plateau from 1940 to 1970 has been mostly attributed to <a href="/wiki/Sulfate#Environmental_effects" title="Sulfate">sulfate aerosol</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 207">: 207 </span></sup> Some of the temperature variations over this time period may also be due to ocean circulation patterns.<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Land air temperatures are rising faster than sea surface temperatures. Land temperatures have warmed by 1.59 °C (range: 1.34 to 1.83 °C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020, while sea surface temperatures have warmed by 0.88 °C (range: 0.68 to 1.01 °C) over the same period.<sup id="cite_ref-:03_8-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:03-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 5">: 5 </span></sup> </p><p>For 1980 to 2020, the linear warming trend for combined land and sea temperatures has been 0.18 °C to 0.20 °C per decade, depending on the data set used.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: Table 2.4">: Table 2.4 </span></sup> </p><p> It is unlikely that any uncorrected effects from <a href="/wiki/Urbanisation" class="mw-redirect" title="Urbanisation">urbanisation</a>, or changes in <a href="/wiki/Land_use" title="Land use">land use</a> or <a href="/wiki/Land_cover" title="Land cover">land cover</a>, have raised global land temperature changes by more than 10%.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 189">: 189 </span></sup> However, larger urbanisation signals have been found locally in some rapidly urbanising regions, such as eastern China.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_16-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: Section 2.3.1.1.3">: Section 2.3.1.1.3 </span></sup></p><div class="excerpt-block"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1066933788">.mw-parser-output .excerpt-hat .mw-editsection-like{font-style:normal}</style><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable dablink excerpt-hat selfref">This section is an excerpt from <a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change#Changes_in_temperature" title="Effects of climate change">Effects of climate change § Changes in temperature</a>.<span class="mw-editsection-like plainlinks"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Effects_of_climate_change&action=edit#Changes_in_temperature">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div><div class="excerpt"> <figure class="mw-default-size mw-halign-right" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Change_in_Average_Temperature_With_Fahrenheit.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/Change_in_Average_Temperature_With_Fahrenheit.svg/300px-Change_in_Average_Temperature_With_Fahrenheit.svg.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="270" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/Change_in_Average_Temperature_With_Fahrenheit.svg/450px-Change_in_Average_Temperature_With_Fahrenheit.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e0/Change_in_Average_Temperature_With_Fahrenheit.svg/600px-Change_in_Average_Temperature_With_Fahrenheit.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="960" data-file-height="864" /></a><figcaption>Over the last 50 years the <a href="/wiki/Arctic" title="Arctic">Arctic</a> has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than <a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperatures</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>Global warming affects all parts of Earth's <a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">climate system</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Effects_of_climate_change_Kennedy-2019_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Effects_of_climate_change_Kennedy-2019-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C (2.0 °F). Scientists say they will rise further in the future.<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The <a href="/wiki/Arctic" title="Arctic">Arctic</a> is warming faster than most other regions.<sup id="cite_ref-Effects_of_climate_change_Lindsey-2022_22-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Effects_of_climate_change_Lindsey-2022-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Night-time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures.<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms.<sup id="cite_ref-Effects_of_climate_change_Schneider-2007a_24-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Effects_of_climate_change_Schneider-2007a-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 787">: 787 </span></sup> </p> Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human-caused climate change. One is to investigate past natural changes in climate.<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> To assess changes in Earth's <a href="/wiki/Paleoclimate" class="mw-redirect" title="Paleoclimate">past climate</a> scientists have studied <a href="/wiki/Tree_rings" class="mw-redirect" title="Tree rings">tree rings</a>, <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a>, <a href="/wiki/Coral" title="Coral">corals</a>, and ocean and lake <a href="/wiki/Sediment" title="Sediment">sediments</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Effects_of_climate_change_noaa_proxy_climate_data_26-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Effects_of_climate_change_noaa_proxy_climate_data-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These show that recent temperatures have surpassed anything in the last 2,000 years.<sup id="cite_ref-Effects_of_climate_change_phys.org_27-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Effects_of_climate_change_phys.org-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> By the end of the 21st century, temperatures may increase to a level last seen in the <a href="/wiki/Mid-Pliocene_Warm_Period" class="mw-redirect" title="Mid-Pliocene Warm Period">mid-Pliocene</a>. This was around 3 million years ago.<sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 322">: 322 </span></sup> At that time, mean global temperatures were about 2–4 °C (3.6–7.2 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. The global mean sea level was up to 25 metres (82 ft) higher than it is today.<sup id="cite_ref-Effects_of_climate_change_Oppenheimer-2019_29-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Effects_of_climate_change_Oppenheimer-2019-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 323">: 323 </span></sup> The modern observed rise in temperature and CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> concentrations has been rapid. Even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach current rates.<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 54">: 54 </span></sup></div></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg/220px-20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="165" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg/330px-20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg/440px-20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1000" data-file-height="750" /></a><figcaption><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Global average temperature datasets</a> from various scientific organizations show substantial agreement concerning the progress and extent of global warming: 1880– pairwise correlations of the four longer-term datasets are at least <a href="/wiki/File:20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg#Pairwise_correlation" title="File:20200324 Global average temperature - NASA-GISS HadCrut NOAA Japan BerkeleyE.svg">99.29%</a>.</figcaption></figure> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><span><video id="mwe_player_1" poster="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/220px--GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.jpg" controls="" preload="none" data-mw-tmh="" class="mw-file-element" width="220" height="124" data-durationhint="70" data-mwtitle="GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm" data-mwprovider="wikimediacommons" resource="/wiki/File:GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm"><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.480p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="480p.vp9.webm" data-width="854" data-height="480" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.720p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="720p.vp9.webm" data-width="1280" data-height="720" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.1080p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="1080p.vp9.webm" data-width="1920" data-height="1080" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9"" data-width="3840" data-height="2160" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.144p.mjpeg.mov" type="video/quicktime" data-transcodekey="144p.mjpeg.mov" data-width="256" data-height="144" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.240p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="240p.vp9.webm" data-width="426" data-height="240" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.360p.vp9.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp9, opus"" data-transcodekey="360p.vp9.webm" data-width="640" data-height="360" /><source src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/1/19/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm/GISTEMP_Spiral_2022-03-06_2257.webm.360p.webm" type="video/webm; codecs="vp8, vorbis"" data-transcodekey="360p.webm" data-width="640" data-height="360" /></video></span><figcaption>A <a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">climate spiral</a> depicting monthly anomalies in global temperature from 1880 till 2021.</figcaption></figure> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Methods">Methods</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Methods"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The instrumental temperature record is a record of <a href="/wiki/Temperature" title="Temperature">temperatures</a> within Earth's <a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">climate</a> based on direct <a href="/wiki/Temperature_measurement" title="Temperature measurement">measurement</a> of <a href="/wiki/Air_temperature" class="mw-redirect" title="Air temperature">air temperature</a> and <a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">ocean temperature</a>. Instrumental temperature records do not use indirect reconstructions using <a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">climate proxy</a> data such as from <a href="/wiki/Tree_rings" class="mw-redirect" title="Tree rings">tree rings</a> and <a href="/wiki/Marine_sediment" title="Marine sediment">marine sediments</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-NCDC_proxy_31-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NCDC_proxy-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Global_record_from_1850_onwards">Global record from 1850 onwards</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Global record from 1850 onwards"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Stevenson_screen_exterior.JPG" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/Stevenson_screen_exterior.JPG/220px-Stevenson_screen_exterior.JPG" decoding="async" width="220" height="291" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/Stevenson_screen_exterior.JPG/330px-Stevenson_screen_exterior.JPG 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fe/Stevenson_screen_exterior.JPG/440px-Stevenson_screen_exterior.JPG 2x" data-file-width="1232" data-file-height="1632" /></a><figcaption>Exterior of a <a href="/wiki/Stevenson_screen" title="Stevenson screen">Stevenson screen</a> used for temperature measurements on land stations.</figcaption></figure> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Stevenson_screen_interior.JPG" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f2/Stevenson_screen_interior.JPG/220px-Stevenson_screen_interior.JPG" decoding="async" width="220" height="166" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f2/Stevenson_screen_interior.JPG/330px-Stevenson_screen_interior.JPG 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f2/Stevenson_screen_interior.JPG/440px-Stevenson_screen_interior.JPG 2x" data-file-width="1632" data-file-height="1232" /></a><figcaption>Interior of a Stevenson screen</figcaption></figure> <p>The period for which reasonably reliable instrumental records of near-surface land temperature exist with quasi-global coverage is generally considered to begin around 1850.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Earlier records exist, but with sparser coverage, largely confined to the <a href="/wiki/Northern_Hemisphere" title="Northern Hemisphere">Northern Hemisphere</a>, and less standardized instrumentation. (The longest-running temperature record is the <a href="/wiki/Central_England_temperature" title="Central England temperature">Central England temperature</a> data series, which starts in 1659). </p><p>The temperature data for the record come from measurements from land stations and ships. On land, temperatures are measured either using electronic sensors, or mercury or alcohol <a href="/wiki/Thermometer" title="Thermometer">thermometers</a> which are read manually, with the instruments being sheltered from direct sunlight using a shelter such as a <a href="/wiki/Stevenson_screen" title="Stevenson screen">Stevenson screen</a>. The sea record consists of ships taking sea temperature measurements, mostly from hull-mounted sensors, engine inlets or buckets, and more recently includes measurements from moored and drifting <a href="/wiki/Buoy" title="Buoy">buoys</a>. The land and marine records can be compared. </p><p>Data is collected from thousands of meteorological stations, <a href="/wiki/Buoy" title="Buoy">buoys</a> and ships around the globe. Areas that are densely populated tend to have a high density of measurement points. In contrast, temperature observations are more spread out in sparsely populated areas such as polar regions and deserts, as well as in many regions of Africa and South America.<sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In the past, <a href="/wiki/Thermometer" title="Thermometer">thermometers</a> were read manually to record temperatures. Nowadays, measurements are usually connected with electronic sensors which transmit data automatically. Surface temperature data is usually presented as anomalies rather than as absolute values. </p><p>Land and sea measurement and instrument calibration is the responsibility of <a href="/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization#Current_member_states" title="World Meteorological Organization">national meteorological services</a>. Standardization of methods is organized through the <a href="/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization" title="World Meteorological Organization">World Meteorological Organization</a> (and formerly through its predecessor, the <a href="/wiki/International_Meteorological_Organization" title="International Meteorological Organization">International Meteorological Organization</a>).<sup id="cite_ref-GOSGuide_33-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-GOSGuide-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Most meteorological observations are taken for use in weather forecasts. Centers such as <a href="/wiki/European_Centre_for_Medium-Range_Weather_Forecasts" title="European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts">European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts</a> show instantaneous map of their coverage; or the <a href="/wiki/Met_Office_Hadley_Centre" title="Met Office Hadley Centre">Hadley Centre</a> show the coverage for the average of the year 2000. Coverage for earlier in the 20th and 19th centuries would be significantly less. While temperature changes vary both in size and direction from one location to another, the numbers from different locations are combined to produce an estimate of a global average change. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Satellite_and_balloon_temperature_records_(1950s–present)"><span id="Satellite_and_balloon_temperature_records_.281950s.E2.80.93present.29"></span>Satellite and balloon temperature records (1950s–present)</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Satellite and balloon temperature records (1950s–present)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></div> <p><br /> </p><p><a href="/wiki/Weather_balloon" title="Weather balloon">Weather balloon</a> <a href="/wiki/Radiosonde" title="Radiosonde">radiosonde</a> measurements of atmospheric temperature at various altitudes begin to show an approximation of global coverage in the 1950s. Since December 1978, <a href="/wiki/Microwave_sounding_unit" title="Microwave sounding unit">microwave sounding units</a> on satellites have produced data which can be used to <a href="/wiki/MSU_temperature_measurements" class="mw-redirect" title="MSU temperature measurements">infer temperatures</a> in the <a href="/wiki/Troposphere" title="Troposphere">troposphere</a>. </p><p>Several groups have analyzed the satellite data to calculate temperature trends in the troposphere. Both the <a href="/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset" title="UAH satellite temperature dataset">University of Alabama in Huntsville</a> (UAH) and the private, NASA funded, corporation <a href="/wiki/Remote_Sensing_Systems" title="Remote Sensing Systems">Remote Sensing Systems</a> (RSS) find an upward trend. For the lower troposphere, UAH found a global average trend between 1978 and 2019 of 0.130 degrees Celsius per decade.<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> RSS found a trend of 0.148 degrees Celsius per decade, to January 2011.<sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2004 scientists found trends of +0.19  degrees Celsius per decade when applied to the RSS dataset.<sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Others found 0.20  degrees Celsius per decade up between 1978 and 2005, since which the dataset has not been updated.<sup id="cite_ref-37" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The most recent climate model simulations give a range of results for changes in global-average temperature. Some models show more warming in the troposphere than at the surface, while a slightly smaller number of simulations show the opposite behaviour. There is no fundamental inconsistency among these model results and observations at the global scale.<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The satellite records used to show much smaller warming trends for the troposphere which were considered to disagree with model prediction; however, following revisions to the satellite records, the trends are now similar. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Global_surface_and_ocean_datasets">Global surface and ocean datasets</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Global surface and ocean datasets"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Temperature_measurement" title="Temperature measurement">Temperature measurement</a></div> <p>The methods used to derive the principal estimates of global surface temperature trends are largely independent from each other and include: </p> <ul><li>The <a href="/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration" title="National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a> (NOAA) maintains the <a href="/wiki/Global_Historical_Climatology_Network" title="Global Historical Climatology Network">Global Historical Climatology Network</a> (GHCN-Monthly) data base containing historical temperature, precipitation, and pressure data for thousands of land stations worldwide.<sup id="cite_ref-GHCN_39-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-GHCN-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Also, NOAA's <a href="/wiki/National_Climatic_Data_Center" title="National Climatic Data Center">National Climatic Data Center</a> (NCDC)<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> of surface temperature measurements maintains a global temperature database since 1880.<sup id="cite_ref-NCDC_41-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NCDC-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li><a href="/wiki/HadCRUT" title="HadCRUT">HadCRUT</a> is a collaboration between the <a href="/wiki/University_of_East_Anglia" title="University of East Anglia">University of East Anglia</a>'s <a href="/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit" title="Climatic Research Unit">Climatic Research Unit</a> and the <a href="/wiki/Hadley_Centre_for_Climate_Prediction_and_Research" class="mw-redirect" title="Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research">Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research</a>.</li> <li>NASA's <a href="/wiki/Goddard_Institute_for_Space_Studies" title="Goddard Institute for Space Studies">Goddard Institute for Space Studies</a> maintains <a href="/wiki/GISTEMP" class="mw-redirect" title="GISTEMP">GISTEMP</a>.</li> <li>More recently the <a href="/wiki/Berkeley_Earth" title="Berkeley Earth">Berkeley Earth</a> Surface Temperature dataset was started. It is now one of the datasets used by <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC</a> and <a href="/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization" title="World Meteorological Organization">WMO</a> in their assessments.</li></ul> <p>These datasets are updated frequently, and are generally in close agreement with each other. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Absolute_temperatures_v._anomalies">Absolute temperatures v. anomalies</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Absolute temperatures v. anomalies"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Temperature_anomaly" title="Temperature anomaly">Temperature anomaly</a></div> <p>Records of global average surface temperature are usually presented as <a href="https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/anomaly" class="extiw" title="wiktionary:anomaly">anomalies</a> rather than as absolute temperatures. A temperature anomaly is measured against a <i>reference value</i> (also called <i>baseline period</i> or <i>long-term average</i>).<sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Usually it is a period of 30 years. For example, a commonly used baseline period is 1951-1980. Therefore, if the average temperature for that time period was 15 °C, and the currently measured temperature is 17 °C, then the temperature anomaly is +2 °C. </p><p>Temperature anomalies are useful for deriving average surface temperatures because they tend to be highly correlated over large distances (of the order of 1000 km).<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In other words, anomalies are representative of temperature changes over large areas and distances. By comparison, absolute temperatures vary markedly over even short distances. A dataset based on anomalies will also be less sensitive to changes in the observing network (such as a new station opening in a particularly hot or cold location) than one based on absolute values will be. </p><p>The Earth's average surface absolute temperature for the 1961–1990 period has been derived by spatial interpolation of average observed near-surface air temperatures from over the land, oceans and sea ice regions, with a best estimate of 14 °C (57.2 °F).<sup id="cite_ref-jonesreview_44-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jonesreview-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The estimate is uncertain, but probably lies within 0.5 °C of the true value.<sup id="cite_ref-jonesreview_44-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-jonesreview-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Given the difference in uncertainties between this absolute value and any annual anomaly, it's not valid to add them together to imply a precise absolute value for a specific year.<sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Siting_of_temperature_measurement_stations">Siting of temperature measurement stations</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Siting of temperature measurement stations"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The U.S. <a href="/wiki/National_Weather_Service" title="National Weather Service">National Weather Service</a> Cooperative Observer Program has established minimum standards regarding the instrumentation, siting, and reporting of surface temperature stations.<sup id="cite_ref-46" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The observing systems available are able to detect year-to-year temperature variations such as those caused by El Niño or volcanic eruptions.<sup id="cite_ref-CCSP_47-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-CCSP-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Another study concluded in 2006, that existing empirical techniques for validating the local and regional consistency of temperature data are adequate to identify and remove biases from station records, and that such corrections allow information about long-term trends to be preserved.<sup id="cite_ref-48" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A study in 2013 also found that urban bias can be accounted for, and when all available station data is divided into rural and urban, that both temperature sets are broadly consistent.<sup id="cite_ref-49" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Warmest_periods">Warmest periods</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Warmest periods"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Warmest_years">Warmest years</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Warmest years"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><span class="anchor" id="Warmest_year"></span><span class="anchor" id="Hottest_year"></span> </p> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:1951%2B_Percent_of_global_area_at_temperature_records_-_Seasonal_comparison_-_NOAA.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4e/1951%2B_Percent_of_global_area_at_temperature_records_-_Seasonal_comparison_-_NOAA.svg/220px-1951%2B_Percent_of_global_area_at_temperature_records_-_Seasonal_comparison_-_NOAA.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="154" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4e/1951%2B_Percent_of_global_area_at_temperature_records_-_Seasonal_comparison_-_NOAA.svg/330px-1951%2B_Percent_of_global_area_at_temperature_records_-_Seasonal_comparison_-_NOAA.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4e/1951%2B_Percent_of_global_area_at_temperature_records_-_Seasonal_comparison_-_NOAA.svg/440px-1951%2B_Percent_of_global_area_at_temperature_records_-_Seasonal_comparison_-_NOAA.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="2000" data-file-height="1400" /></a><figcaption>In recent decades, new high temperature records have substantially outpaced new low temperature records on a growing portion of Earth's surface.<sup id="cite_ref-NOAA_October2_50-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NOAA_October2-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Comparison shows seasonal variability for record increases.</figcaption></figure> <p>The warmest years in the instrumental temperature record have occurred in the last decade (i.e. 2012-2021). The <a href="/wiki/World_Meteorological_Organization" title="World Meteorological Organization">World Meteorological Organization</a> reported in 2021 that 2016 and 2020 were the two warmest years in the period since 1850.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_51-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Each individual year from 2015 onwards has been warmer than any prior year going back to at least 1850.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_51-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In other words: each of the seven years in 2015-2021 was clearly warmer than any pre-2014 year. </p><p>The year 2023 was 1.48 °C hotter than the average in the years 1850-1900 according to the <a href="/wiki/Copernicus_Climate_Change_Service" title="Copernicus Climate Change Service">Copernicus Climate Change Service</a>. It was declared as the warmest on record almost immediately after it ended and broke many climate records.<sup id="cite_ref-52" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-53" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>There is a long-term warming trend, and there is variability about this trend because of natural sources of variability (e.g. <a href="/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation" title="El Niño–Southern Oscillation">ENSO</a> such as <a href="/wiki/2014%E2%80%932016_El_Ni%C3%B1o_event" title="2014–2016 El Niño event">2014–2016 El Niño event</a>, <a href="/wiki/Types_of_volcanic_eruptions" title="Types of volcanic eruptions">volcanic eruption</a>).<sup id="cite_ref-MetOfficePR_54-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-MetOfficePR-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Not every year will set a record but record highs are occurring regularly. </p><p>While record-breaking years can attract considerable public interest,<sup id="cite_ref-bbc_2017_55-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-bbc_2017-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> individual years are less significant than the overall trend.<sup id="cite_ref-NASA-NOAA2016_56-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NASA-NOAA2016-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-57" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-57"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>57<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Some climatologists have criticized the attention that the popular press gives to <i>warmest year</i> statistics.<sup id="cite_ref-Gavin_Schmidt_201501_58-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Gavin_Schmidt_201501-58"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>58<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-NASA-NOAA2016_56-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NASA-NOAA2016-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Based on the NOAA dataset (note that other datasets produce different rankings<sup id="cite_ref-59" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-59"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>59<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>), the following table lists the global combined land and ocean annually averaged temperature rank and anomaly for each of the 10 warmest years on record.<sup id="cite_ref-NOAA2015_60-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NOAA2015-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For comparison: IPCC uses the mean of four different datasets and expresses the data relative to 1850–1900.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (March 2022)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> Although global instrumental temperature records begin only in 1850, <a href="/wiki/Global_temperature_record#Proxies:_tree_rings,_ice_cores:_the_last_2000_years" class="mw-redirect" title="Global temperature record">reconstructions of earlier temperatures</a> based on <a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">climate proxies</a>, suggest these recent years may be the warmest for several centuries to millennia, or longer.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_16-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2–6">: 2–6 </span></sup> </p> <table class="wikitable sortable" style="margin:auto;"> <caption><b>Top 10 warmest years (data from NOAA)</b> </caption> <caption>(1880–2023) </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Rank </th> <th>Year </th> <th>Anomaly °C </th> <th>Anomaly °F </th></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>1 </td> <td>2024 </td> <td>1.29 </td> <td>2.23 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>2 </td> <td>2023 </td> <td>1.17 </td> <td>2.11 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>3 </td> <td>2016 </td> <td>1.00 </td> <td>1.80 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>4 </td> <td>2020 </td> <td>0.98 </td> <td>1.76 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>5 </td> <td>2019 </td> <td>0.95 </td> <td>1.71 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>6 </td> <td>2015 </td> <td>0.93 </td> <td>1.67 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>7 </td> <td>2017 </td> <td>0.91 </td> <td>1.64 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>8 </td> <td>2022 </td> <td>0.86 </td> <td>1.55 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>9 </td> <td>2021 </td> <td>0.84 </td> <td>1.51 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>10 </td> <td>2018 </td> <td>0.82 </td> <td>1.48 </td></tr> <tr align="left"> <td>11 </td> <td>2014 </td> <td>0.74 </td> <td>1.33 </td></tr></tbody></table> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Warmest_decades">Warmest decades</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Warmest decades"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:20211115_Progression_of_global_warming_-_decadal_analysis_-_bar_chart.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/20211115_Progression_of_global_warming_-_decadal_analysis_-_bar_chart.svg/220px-20211115_Progression_of_global_warming_-_decadal_analysis_-_bar_chart.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="124" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/20211115_Progression_of_global_warming_-_decadal_analysis_-_bar_chart.svg/330px-20211115_Progression_of_global_warming_-_decadal_analysis_-_bar_chart.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/20211115_Progression_of_global_warming_-_decadal_analysis_-_bar_chart.svg/440px-20211115_Progression_of_global_warming_-_decadal_analysis_-_bar_chart.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1200" data-file-height="675" /></a><figcaption>Global warming by decade: In the last four decades, global average surface temperatures during a given decade have almost always been higher than the average temperature in the preceding decade (data for 1850 to 2020 based on <a href="/wiki/HadCRUT" title="HadCRUT">HadCRUT</a> datasets).</figcaption></figure> <p>Numerous drivers have been found to influence annual global mean temperatures. An examination of the average global temperature changes by decades reveals continuing climate change: each of the last four decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The most recent decade (2011-2020) was warmer than any multi-centennial period in the past 11,700 years.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_16-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2–6">: 2–6 </span></sup> </p><p>The following chart is from <a href="/wiki/NASA" title="NASA">NASA</a> data of combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies.<sup id="cite_ref-61" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <table class="wikitable sortable" style="margin:auto;"> <caption><b>Combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies (data from NASA)</b> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Years </th> <th>Temperature anomaly, <a href="/wiki/Celsius" title="Celsius">°C</a> (<a href="/wiki/Fahrenheit" title="Fahrenheit">°F</a>) from 1951 to 1980 mean </th> <th>Change from previous decade, <a href="/wiki/Celsius" title="Celsius">°C</a> (<a href="/wiki/Fahrenheit" title="Fahrenheit">°F</a>) </th></tr> <tr> <td>1880–1889 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3000726000000000000♠"></span>−0.274 °C (−0.493 °F) </td> <td>N/A </td></tr> <tr> <td>1890–1899 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3000746000000000000♠"></span>−0.254 °C (−0.457 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6998200000000000000♠"></span>+0.020 °C (0.036 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1900–1909 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3000741000000000000♠"></span>−0.259 °C (−0.466 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3002500000000000000♠"></span>−0.005 °C (−0.009 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1910–1919 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3000724000000000000♠"></span>−0.276 °C (−0.497 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3001830000000000000♠"></span>−0.017 °C (−0.031 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1920–1929 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3000825000000000000♠"></span>−0.175 °C (−0.315 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999101000000000000♠"></span>+0.101 °C (0.182 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1930–1939 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3001570000000000000♠"></span>−0.043 °C (−0.077 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999132000000000000♠"></span>+0.132 °C (0.238 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1940–1949 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6998350000000000000♠"></span>0.035 °C (0.063 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6998780000000000000♠"></span>+0.078 °C (0.140 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1950–1959 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3001800000000000000♠"></span>−0.02 °C (−0.036 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3001450000000000000♠"></span>−0.055 °C (−0.099 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1960–1969 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3001860000000000000♠"></span>−0.014 °C (−0.025 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6997600000000000000♠"></span>+0.006 °C (0.011 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1970–1979 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="3002900000000000000♠"></span>−0.001 °C (−0.002 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6998130000000000000♠"></span>+0.013 °C (0.023 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1980–1989 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999176000000000000♠"></span>0.176 °C (0.317 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999177000000000000♠"></span>+0.177 °C (0.319 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>1990–1999 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999313000000000000♠"></span>0.313 °C (0.563 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999137000000000000♠"></span>+0.137 °C (0.247 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>2000–2009 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999513000000000000♠"></span>0.513 °C (0.923 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999200000000000000♠"></span>+0.200 °C (0.360 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>2010–2019 </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999753000000000000♠"></span>0.753 °C (1.355 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999240000000000000♠"></span>+0.240 °C (0.432 °F) </td></tr> <tr> <td>2020–2029 (incomplete) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="7000102800000000000♠"></span>1.028 °C (1.85 °F) </td> <td><span data-sort-value="6999275000000000000♠"></span>+0.275 °C (0.50 °F) </td></tr></tbody></table> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Factors_influencing_global_temperature">Factors influencing global temperature</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: Factors influencing global temperature"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes of climate change</a> and <a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg/220px-20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="165" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg/330px-20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg/440px-20210827_Global_surface_temperature_bar_chart_-_bars_color-coded_by_El_Ni%C3%B1o_and_La_Ni%C3%B1a_intensity.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1000" data-file-height="750" /></a><figcaption>Colored bars show how El Niño years (red, regional warming) and La Niña years (blue, regional cooling) relate to overall global warming. The <a href="/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation" title="El Niño–Southern Oscillation">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a> has been linked to variability in longer-term global average temperature increase.</figcaption></figure> <p>Factors that influence global temperature include: </p> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gases</a> trap outgoing radiation warming the atmosphere which in turn warms the land (<a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">greenhouse effect</a>).</li> <li><a href="/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation" title="El Niño–Southern Oscillation">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a> (ENSO): <a href="/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o" class="mw-redirect" title="El Niño">El Niño</a> generally tends to increase global temperatures. <a href="/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a" class="mw-redirect" title="La Niña">La Niña</a>, on the other hand, usually causes years which are cooler than the short-term average.<sup id="cite_ref-NOAA_62-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NOAA-62"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>62<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña the cold phase. In the absence of other short-term influences such as volcanic eruptions, strong El Niño years are typically 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C warmer than the years immediately preceding and following them, and strong La Niña years 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C cooler. The signal is most prominent in the year in which the El Niño/La Niña ends.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (March 2022)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li>Aerosols and volcanic eruptions: <a href="/wiki/Aerosol" title="Aerosol">Aerosols</a> diffuse incoming radiation generally cooling the planet. On a long-term basis, aerosols are primarily of anthropogenic origin, but major <a href="/wiki/Types_of_volcanic_eruptions" title="Types of volcanic eruptions">volcanic eruptions</a> can produce quantities of aerosols which exceed those from anthropogenic sources over periods of time up to a few years. Volcanic eruptions which are sufficiently large to inject significant quantities of <a href="/wiki/Sulfur_dioxide" title="Sulfur dioxide">sulfur dioxide</a> into the <a href="/wiki/Stratosphere" title="Stratosphere">stratosphere</a> can have a significant global cooling effect for one to three years after the eruption. This effect is most prominent for tropical volcanoes as the resultant aerosols can spread over both hemispheres. The largest eruptions of the last 100 years, such as the <a href="/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatubo" title="1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo">Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991</a> and <a href="/wiki/Mount_Agung#1963–64_eruption" title="Mount Agung">Mount Agung eruption in 1963-1964</a>, have been followed by years with global mean temperatures 0.1 °C to 0.2 °C below long-term trends at the time.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (March 2022)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use" title="Land use">Land use</a> change like <a href="/wiki/Deforestation" title="Deforestation">deforestation</a> can increase greenhouse gases through burning <a href="/wiki/Biomass" title="Biomass">biomass</a>. <a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a> can also be changed.</li> <li>Incoming <a href="/wiki/Solar_irradiance" title="Solar irradiance">solar radiation</a> varies very slightly, with the main variation controlled by the approximately 11-year <a href="/wiki/Solar_cycle" title="Solar cycle">solar magnetic activity cycle</a>.</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Robustness_of_evidence">Robustness of evidence</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: Robustness of evidence"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>There is a <a href="/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change" class="mw-redirect" title="Scientific opinion on climate change">scientific consensus that climate is changing</a> and that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.<sup id="cite_ref-joint_statement_on_climate_change_63-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-joint_statement_on_climate_change-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The scientific consensus is reflected, for example, by the <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> (IPCC), an international body which summarizes existing science, and the <a href="/wiki/U.S._Global_Change_Research_Program" title="U.S. Global Change Research Program">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-joint_statement_on_climate_change_63-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-joint_statement_on_climate_change-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Other_reports_and_assessments">Other reports and assessments</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: Other reports and assessments"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Global_warming._Short-term_variations_versus_a_long-term_trend_(NCADAC).png" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="Refer to caption" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/db/Global_warming._Short-term_variations_versus_a_long-term_trend_%28NCADAC%29.png/220px-Global_warming._Short-term_variations_versus_a_long-term_trend_%28NCADAC%29.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="165" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/db/Global_warming._Short-term_variations_versus_a_long-term_trend_%28NCADAC%29.png/330px-Global_warming._Short-term_variations_versus_a_long-term_trend_%28NCADAC%29.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/db/Global_warming._Short-term_variations_versus_a_long-term_trend_%28NCADAC%29.png/440px-Global_warming._Short-term_variations_versus_a_long-term_trend_%28NCADAC%29.png 2x" data-file-width="1561" data-file-height="1174" /></a><figcaption>This graph shows how short-term variations occur in the measured temperature. The graph also shows a long-term trend of <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global warming</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-64" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-64"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>64<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>The U.S. <a href="/wiki/National_Academy_of_Sciences" title="National Academy of Sciences">National Academy of Sciences</a>, both in its 2002 report to President George W. Bush, and in later publications, has strongly endorsed evidence of an average global temperature increase in the 20th century.<sup id="cite_ref-NA_brief_65-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-NA_brief-65"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>65<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p> The preliminary results of an assessment carried out by the <a href="/wiki/Berkeley_Earth" title="Berkeley Earth">Berkeley Earth</a> Surface Temperature group and made public in October 2011, found that over the past 50 years the land surface warmed by 0.911 °C, and their results mirrors those obtained from earlier studies carried out by the NOAA, the <a href="/wiki/Hadley_Centre_for_Climate_Prediction_and_Research" class="mw-redirect" title="Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research">Hadley Centre</a> and <a href="/wiki/NASA" title="NASA">NASA</a>'s GISS. The study addressed concerns raised by <i>skeptics</i> (more often: <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">climate change deniers</a>).<sup id="cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-SciDaily1011-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-67" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-67"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>67<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Those concerns included <a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">urban heat island</a> effects and apparently poor station quality,<sup id="cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-SciDaily1011-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and the "issue of data selection bias"<sup id="cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-SciDaily1011-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and found that these effects did not bias the results obtained from these earlier studies.<sup id="cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-SciDaily1011-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Guardian1011_68-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Guardian1011-68"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>68<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-bbcBlack_69-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-bbcBlack-69"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>69<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Econ1011_70-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Econ1011-70"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>70<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></p><figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png/220px-GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="145" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png/330px-GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png/440px-GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png 2x" data-file-width="900" data-file-height="595" /></a><figcaption>Map of the land-based long-term monitoring stations included in the <a href="/wiki/Global_Historical_Climatology_Network" title="Global Historical Climatology Network">Global Historical Climatology Network</a>. Colors indicate the length of the temperature record available at each site.</figcaption></figure> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Internal_climate_variability_and_global_warming">Internal climate variability and global warming</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: Internal climate variability and global warming"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes of climate change</a> and <a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></div> <p>One of the issues that has been raised in the media is the view that global warming "stopped in 1998".<sup id="cite_ref-71" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-71"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>71<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-scott_variability_p1_72-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-scott_variability_p1-72"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>72<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This view ignores the presence of internal climate variability.<sup id="cite_ref-scott_variability_p1_72-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-scott_variability_p1-72"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>72<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-met_office_internal_variability_73-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-met_office_internal_variability-73"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>73<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Internal climate variability is a result of complex interactions between components of the climate system, such as the <a href="/wiki/Coupling_(physics)" title="Coupling (physics)">coupling</a> between the <a href="/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth" title="Atmosphere of Earth">atmosphere</a> and <a href="/wiki/Ocean" title="Ocean">ocean</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-74" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-74"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>74<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> An example of internal climate variability is the <a href="/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation" title="El Niño–Southern Oscillation">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a> (ENSO).<sup id="cite_ref-scott_variability_p1_72-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-scott_variability_p1-72"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>72<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-met_office_internal_variability_73-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-met_office_internal_variability-73"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>73<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The <a href="/wiki/1997%E2%80%9398_El_Ni%C3%B1o_event" title="1997–98 El Niño event">El Niño in 1998</a> was particularly strong, possibly one of the strongest of the 20th century, and 1998 was at the time the world's warmest year on record by a substantial margin. </p><p>Cooling over the 2007 to 2012 period, for instance, was likely driven by internal modes of climate variability such as <a href="/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a" class="mw-redirect" title="La Niña">La Niña</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-scott_variability_p3_75-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-scott_variability_p3-75"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>75<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The area of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures that defines La Niña conditions can push global temperatures downward, if the phenomenon is strong enough.<sup id="cite_ref-scott_variability_p3_75-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-scott_variability_p3-75"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>75<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The slowdown in global warming rates over the 1998 to 2012 period is also less pronounced in current generations of observational datasets than in those available at the time in 2012. The temporary slowing of warming rates ended after 2012, with every year from 2015 onwards warmer than any year prior to 2015, but it is expected that warming rates will continue to fluctuate on decadal timescales through the 21st century.<sup id="cite_ref-76" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-76"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>76<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: Box 3.1">: Box 3.1 </span></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Related_research">Related research</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Related research"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:20190909_STACKED_country_warming_stripes_AND_global_average_(1901-_).png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c6/20190909_STACKED_country_warming_stripes_AND_global_average_%281901-_%29.png/220px-20190909_STACKED_country_warming_stripes_AND_global_average_%281901-_%29.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="314" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c6/20190909_STACKED_country_warming_stripes_AND_global_average_%281901-_%29.png/330px-20190909_STACKED_country_warming_stripes_AND_global_average_%281901-_%29.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c6/20190909_STACKED_country_warming_stripes_AND_global_average_%281901-_%29.png/440px-20190909_STACKED_country_warming_stripes_AND_global_average_%281901-_%29.png 2x" data-file-width="3500" data-file-height="5000" /></a><figcaption>Top graphic (comprehensive): 196 rows represent 196 countries, grouped by continent. Each row has 118 color-coded annual temperatures, showing <span style="color:blue">1901</span>—<span style="color: red;">2018</span> warming patterns in each region and country.<sup id="cite_ref-ClimateLabBookSTACKED_20190721_77-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ClimateLabBookSTACKED_20190721-77"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>77<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-BBC_20190621_78-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-BBC_20190621-78"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>78<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Bottom graphic (summary): global average <span style="color:blue">1901</span>—<span style="color: red;">2018</span>.<sup id="cite_ref-Hawkins_20181204_79-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Hawkins_20181204-79"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>79<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Data visualization: <a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">warming stripes</a>.</figcaption></figure> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Trends_and_predictions">Trends and predictions</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=18" title="Edit section: Trends and predictions"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Climate_change#Future_warming_and_the_carbon_budget" title="Climate change">Climate change § Future warming and the carbon budget</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">Climate change scenario</a></div> <p>Each of the seven years in 2015-2021 was clearly warmer than any pre-2014 year, and this trend is expected to be true for some time to come (that is, the 2016 record will be broken before 2026 etc.).<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (March 2022)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> A decadal forecast by the World Meteorological Organisation issued in 2021 stated a probability of 40% of having a year above 1.5 C in the 2021-2025 period.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (March 2022)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>Global warming is very likely to reach 1.0 °C to 1.8 °C by the late 21st century under the <a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways#SSP1:_Sustainability_(Taking_the_Green_Road)" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">very low GHG emissions scenario</a>. In an <a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways#SSP3:_Regional_rivalry_(A_Rocky_Road)" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">intermediate scenario</a> global warming would reach 2.1 °C to 3.5 °C, and 3.3 °C to 5.7 °C under the <a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways#SSP5:_Fossil-Fueled_Development_(Taking_the_Highway)" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">very high GHG emissions scenario</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-:03_8-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:03-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: SPM-17">: SPM-17 </span></sup> These projections are based on <a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">climate models</a> in combination with observations.<sup id="cite_ref-80" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-80"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>80<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: TS-30">: TS-30 </span></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Regional_temperature_changes">Regional temperature changes</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=19" title="Edit section: Regional temperature changes"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects of climate change</a> and <a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change#Variability_between_regions" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change § Variability between regions</a></div> <p>The changes in climate are not expected to be uniform across the Earth. In particular, land areas change more quickly than oceans, and northern high latitudes change more quickly than the <a href="/wiki/Tropics" title="Tropics">tropics</a>. There are three major ways in which global warming will make changes to regional climate: melting ice, changing the <a href="/wiki/Hydrological_cycle" class="mw-redirect" title="Hydrological cycle">hydrological cycle</a> (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing <a href="/wiki/Ocean_current" title="Ocean current">currents in the oceans</a>. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Temperature_estimates_from_prior_to_1850">Temperature estimates from prior to 1850</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=20" title="Edit section: Temperature estimates from prior to 1850"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The global temperature record shows the fluctuations of the <a href="/wiki/Temperature" title="Temperature">temperature</a> of the atmosphere and the oceans through various spans of time. There are numerous estimates of temperatures since the end of the <a href="/wiki/Pleistocene" title="Pleistocene">Pleistocene</a> <a href="/wiki/Glaciation" class="mw-redirect" title="Glaciation">glaciation</a>, particularly during the current <a href="/wiki/Holocene" title="Holocene">Holocene</a> epoch. Some temperature information is available through geologic evidence, going back millions of years. More recently, information from <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a> covers the period from 800,000 years ago until now. A study of the <a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">paleoclimate</a> covers the time period from 12,000 years ago. <a href="/wiki/Tree_Rings" class="mw-redirect" title="Tree Rings">Tree rings</a> and measurements from ice cores can give evidence about the global temperature from 1,000-2,000 years ago. The most detailed information exists since 1850, when <a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">methodical thermometer-based records</a> began. Modifications on the <a href="/wiki/Stevenson_screen" title="Stevenson screen">Stevenson-type screen</a> were made for uniform instrument measurements around 1880.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_9-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Tree_rings_and_ice_cores_(from_1,000–2,000_years_before_present)"><span id="Tree_rings_and_ice_cores_.28from_1.2C000.E2.80.932.2C000_years_before_present.29"></span>Tree rings and ice cores (from 1,000–2,000 years before present)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=21" title="Edit section: Tree rings and ice cores (from 1,000–2,000 years before present)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_last_2,000_years" title="Temperature record of the last 2,000 years">Temperature record of the last 2,000 years</a></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a> measurements can be used to reconstruct the temperature record before the historical period. Quantities such as <a href="/wiki/Tree_ring" class="mw-redirect" title="Tree ring">tree ring</a> widths, <a href="/wiki/Coral#Climate_research" title="Coral">coral growth</a>, <a href="/wiki/Ice_core#Isotopic_analysis" title="Ice core">isotope variations</a> in <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a>, ocean and lake sediments, <a href="/wiki/Speleothem#Climate_proxies" title="Speleothem">cave deposits</a>, <a href="/wiki/Fossil" title="Fossil">fossils</a>, <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a>, <a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)#Boreholes" title="Proxy (climate)">borehole temperatures</a>, and <a href="/wiki/Glacier" title="Glacier">glacier</a> length records are correlated with climatic fluctuations. From these, proxy temperature reconstructions of the last 2000 years have been performed for the northern hemisphere, and over shorter time scales for the southern hemisphere and tropics.<sup id="cite_ref-81" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-81"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>81<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-82" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-82"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>82<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-National_Research_Council_2006_83-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-National_Research_Council_2006-83"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>83<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p> Geographic coverage by these proxies is necessarily sparse, and various proxies are more sensitive to faster fluctuations. For example, tree rings, ice cores, and corals generally show variation on an annual time scale, but borehole reconstructions rely on <a href="/wiki/Thermal_diffusivity" title="Thermal diffusivity">rates of thermal diffusion</a>, and small scale fluctuations are washed out. Even the best proxy records contain far fewer observations than the worst periods of the observational record, and the spatial and temporal resolution of the resulting reconstructions is correspondingly coarse. Connecting the measured proxies to the variable of interest, such as temperature or rainfall, is highly non-trivial. Data sets from multiple complementary proxies covering overlapping time periods and areas are reconciled to produce the final reconstructions.<sup id="cite_ref-National_Research_Council_2006_83-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-National_Research_Council_2006-83"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>83<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-84" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-84"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>84<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></p><figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg/330px-2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg.png" decoding="async" width="330" height="186" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg/495px-2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg/660px-2000%2B_year_global_temperature_including_Medieval_Warm_Period_and_Little_Ice_Age_-_Ed_Hawkins.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1920" data-file-height="1080" /></a><figcaption>Temperature record of the last 2,000 years (the so-called <a href="/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period" title="Medieval Warm Period">Medieval Warm Period</a> and <a href="/wiki/Little_Ice_Age" title="Little Ice Age">Little Ice Age</a> were not planet-wide phenomena)</figcaption></figure><p>Proxy reconstructions extending back 2,000 years have been performed, but reconstructions for the last 1,000 years are supported by more and higher quality independent data sets. These reconstructions indicate:<sup id="cite_ref-National_Research_Council_2006_83-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-National_Research_Council_2006-83"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>83<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><ul><li>global mean surface temperatures over the last 25 years have been higher than any comparable period since AD 1600, and probably since AD 900</li> <li>there was a <a href="/wiki/Little_Ice_Age" title="Little Ice Age">Little Ice Age</a> centered on AD 1700</li> <li>there was a <a href="/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period" title="Medieval Warm Period">Medieval Warm Period</a> centered on AD 1000, but this was not a global phenomenon.<sup id="cite_ref-85" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-85"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>85<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Indirect_historical_proxies">Indirect historical proxies</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=22" title="Edit section: Indirect historical proxies"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>As well as natural, numerical proxies (tree-ring widths, for example) there exist records from the human historical period that can be used to infer climate variations, including: reports of <a href="/wiki/Frost_fair" class="mw-redirect" title="Frost fair">frost fairs</a> on the <a href="/wiki/Thames" class="mw-redirect" title="Thames">Thames</a>; records of good and bad harvests; dates of spring blossom or lambing; extraordinary falls of rain and snow; and unusual floods or droughts.<sup id="cite_ref-86" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-86"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>86<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Such records can be used to infer historical temperatures, but generally in a more qualitative manner than natural proxies.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (August 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p><p>Recent evidence suggests that a sudden and short-lived <a href="/wiki/4.2_kiloyear_event" class="mw-redirect" title="4.2 kiloyear event">climatic shift between 2200 and 2100 BCE</a> occurred in the region between <a href="/wiki/Tibet" title="Tibet">Tibet</a> and <a href="/wiki/Iceland" title="Iceland">Iceland</a>, with some evidence suggesting a global change. The result was a cooling and reduction in precipitation. This is believed to be a primary cause of the collapse of the <a href="/wiki/Old_Kingdom" class="mw-redirect" title="Old Kingdom">Old Kingdom</a> of <a href="/wiki/Egypt" title="Egypt">Egypt</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-87" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-87"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>87<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Paleoclimate_(from_12,000_years_before_present)"><span id="Paleoclimate_.28from_12.2C000_years_before_present.29"></span>Paleoclimate (from 12,000 years before present)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=23" title="Edit section: Paleoclimate (from 12,000 years before present)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png/240px-Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png" decoding="async" width="240" height="160" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png/360px-Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png/480px-Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png 2x" data-file-width="600" data-file-height="400" /></a><figcaption>Plot showing the variations, and relative stability, of climate during the last 12000 years.</figcaption></figure> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">Paleoclimatology</a></div> <p>Many estimates of past temperatures have been made over <a href="/wiki/History_of_Earth" title="History of Earth">Earth's history</a>. The field of paleoclimatology includes ancient temperature records. As the present article is oriented toward recent temperatures, there is a focus here on events since the retreat of the <a href="/wiki/Pleistocene" title="Pleistocene">Pleistocene</a> <a href="/wiki/Glaciers" class="mw-redirect" title="Glaciers">glaciers</a>. The 10,000 years of the <a href="/wiki/Holocene" title="Holocene">Holocene</a> epoch covers most of this period, since the end of the Northern Hemisphere's <a href="/wiki/Younger_Dryas" title="Younger Dryas">Younger Dryas</a> millennium-long cooling. The <a href="/wiki/Holocene_Climatic_Optimum" class="mw-redirect" title="Holocene Climatic Optimum">Holocene Climatic Optimum</a> was generally warmer than the 20th century, but numerous regional variations have been noted since the start of the Younger Dryas. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Ice_cores_(from_800,000_years_before_present)"><span id="Ice_cores_.28from_800.2C000_years_before_present.29"></span>Ice cores (from 800,000 years before present)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=24" title="Edit section: Ice cores (from 800,000 years before present)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:EPICA_temperature_plot.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/EPICA_temperature_plot.svg/400px-EPICA_temperature_plot.svg.png" decoding="async" width="400" height="150" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/EPICA_temperature_plot.svg/600px-EPICA_temperature_plot.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/EPICA_temperature_plot.svg/800px-EPICA_temperature_plot.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="2048" data-file-height="768" /></a><figcaption>Temperature estimates over 800,000 years of the EPICA ice cores in Antarctica. Temperatures are in Celsius relative to the average of the most recent 1,000 years; year 0 is 1950.</figcaption></figure><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1251242444">.mw-parser-output .ambox{border:1px solid #a2a9b1;border-left:10px solid #36c;background-color:#fbfbfb;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+link+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+style+.ambox,.mw-parser-output .ambox+.mw-empty-elt+link+link+.ambox{margin-top:-1px}html body.mediawiki .mw-parser-output .ambox.mbox-small-left{margin:4px 1em 4px 0;overflow:hidden;width:238px;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:88%;line-height:1.25em}.mw-parser-output .ambox-speedy{border-left:10px solid #b32424;background-color:#fee7e6}.mw-parser-output .ambox-delete{border-left:10px solid #b32424}.mw-parser-output .ambox-content{border-left:10px solid #f28500}.mw-parser-output .ambox-style{border-left:10px solid #fc3}.mw-parser-output .ambox-move{border-left:10px solid #9932cc}.mw-parser-output .ambox-protection{border-left:10px solid #a2a9b1}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-text{border:none;padding:0.25em 0.5em;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image{border:none;padding:2px 0 2px 0.5em;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-imageright{border:none;padding:2px 0.5em 2px 0;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-empty-cell{border:none;padding:0;width:1px}.mw-parser-output .ambox .mbox-image-div{width:52px}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .ambox{margin:0 10%}}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .ambox{display:none!important}}</style><table class="box-Unreferenced_section plainlinks metadata ambox ambox-content ambox-Unreferenced" role="presentation"><tbody><tr><td class="mbox-image"><div class="mbox-image-div"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Question_book-new.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/99/Question_book-new.svg/50px-Question_book-new.svg.png" decoding="async" width="50" height="39" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/99/Question_book-new.svg/75px-Question_book-new.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/9/99/Question_book-new.svg/100px-Question_book-new.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="512" data-file-height="399" /></a></span></div></td><td class="mbox-text"><div class="mbox-text-span">This section <b>does not <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources">cite</a> any <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability" title="Wikipedia:Verifiability">sources</a></b>.<span class="hide-when-compact"> Please help <a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Global_surface_temperature" title="Special:EditPage/Global surface temperature">improve this section</a> by <a href="/wiki/Help:Referencing_for_beginners" title="Help:Referencing for beginners">adding citations to reliable sources</a>. Unsourced material may be challenged and <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability#Burden_of_evidence" title="Wikipedia:Verifiability">removed</a>.</span> <span class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">August 2024</span>)</i></span><span class="hide-when-compact"><i> (<small><a href="/wiki/Help:Maintenance_template_removal" title="Help:Maintenance template removal">Learn how and when to remove this message</a></small>)</i></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p>Even longer term records exist for few sites: the recent Antarctic <a href="/wiki/European_Project_for_Ice_Coring_in_Antarctica" title="European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica">EPICA</a> core reaches 800 kyr; many others reach more than 100,000 years. The EPICA core covers eight glacial/interglacial cycles. The <a href="/wiki/North_Greenland_Ice_Core_Project" title="North Greenland Ice Core Project">NGRIP</a> core from Greenland stretches back more than 100 kyr, with 5 kyr in the <a href="/wiki/Eemian_interglacial" class="mw-redirect" title="Eemian interglacial">Eemian interglacial</a>. Whilst the large-scale signals from the cores are clear, there are problems interpreting the detail, and connecting the isotopic variation to the temperature signal.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (August 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> <sup id="cite_ref-88" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-88"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>88<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Ice_core_locations">Ice core locations</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=25" title="Edit section: Ice core locations"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Ice_core_data_location.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c0/Ice_core_data_location.png/400px-Ice_core_data_location.png" decoding="async" width="400" height="198" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c0/Ice_core_data_location.png/600px-Ice_core_data_location.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c0/Ice_core_data_location.png/800px-Ice_core_data_location.png 2x" data-file-width="813" data-file-height="403" /></a><figcaption>Ice core data location<sup id="cite_ref-89" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-89"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>89<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>The World Paleoclimatology Data Center (WDC) maintains the ice core data files of glaciers and ice caps in polar and low latitude mountains all over the world. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Ice_core_records_from_Greenland">Ice core records from Greenland</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=26" title="Edit section: Ice core records from Greenland"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>As a paleothermometry, the ice core in central Greenland showed consistent records on the surface-temperature changes.<sup id="cite_ref-:12_90-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:12-90"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>90<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to the records, changes in global climate are rapid and widespread. Warming phase only needs simple steps, however, the cooling process requires more prerequisites and bases.<sup id="cite_ref-91" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-91"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>91<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Also, Greenland has the clearest record of abrupt climate changes in the ice core, and there are no other records that can show the same time interval with equally high time resolution.<sup id="cite_ref-:12_90-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:12-90"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>90<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>When scientists explored the trapped gas in the ice core bubbles, they found that the methane concentration in Greenland ice core is significantly higher than that in Antarctic samples of similar age, the records of changes of concentration difference between Greenland and Antarctic reveal variation of latitudinal distribution of methane sources.<sup id="cite_ref-92" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-92"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>92<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Increase in methane concentration shown by Greenland ice core records implies that the global wetland area has changed greatly over past years.<sup id="cite_ref-93" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-93"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>93<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> As a component of greenhouse gases, methane plays an important role in global warming. The variation of methane from Greenland records makes a unique contribution for global temperature records undoubtedly.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (August 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Ice_core_records_from_Antarctica">Ice core records from Antarctica</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=27" title="Edit section: Ice core records from Antarctica"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The Antarctic ice sheet originated in the late Eocene, the drilling has restored a record of 800,000 years in <a href="/wiki/Dome_C" title="Dome C">Dome Concordia</a>, and it is the longest available ice core in Antarctica. In recent years, more and more new studies have provided older but discrete records.<sup id="cite_ref-94" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-94"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>94<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Due to the uniqueness of the Antarctic ice sheet, the Antarctic ice core not only records the global temperature changes, but also contains huge quantities of information about the global biogeochemical cycles, climate dynamics and abrupt changes in global climate.<sup id="cite_ref-95" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-95"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>95<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>By comparing with current climate records, the ice core records in Antarctica further confirm that <a href="/wiki/Polar_amplification" title="Polar amplification">polar amplification</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-96" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-96"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>96<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Although Antarctica is covered by the ice core records, the density is rather low considering the area of Antarctica. Exploring more drilling stations is the primary goal for current research institutions.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (August 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Ice_core_records_from_low-latitude_regions">Ice core records from low-latitude regions</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=28" title="Edit section: Ice core records from low-latitude regions"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The ice core records from low-latitude regions are not as common as records from polar regions, however, these records still provide much useful information for scientists. Ice cores in low-latitude regions are usually from high altitude areas. The Guliya record is the longest record from low-latitude, high altitude regions, which spans over 700,000 years.<sup id="cite_ref-:02_97-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:02-97"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>97<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> According to these records, scientists found the evidence which can prove the <a href="/wiki/Last_Glacial_Maximum" title="Last Glacial Maximum">Last Glacial Maximum</a> (LGM) was colder in the tropics and subtropics than previously believed.<sup id="cite_ref-98" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-98"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>98<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Also, the records from low-latitude regions helped scientists confirm that the 20th century was the warmest period in the last 1000 years.<sup id="cite_ref-:02_97-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:02-97"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>97<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Geologic_evidence_(millions_of_years)"><span id="Geologic_evidence_.28millions_of_years.29"></span>Geologic evidence (millions of years)</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=29" title="Edit section: Geologic evidence (millions of years)"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/60/Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png/400px-Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png" decoding="async" width="400" height="120" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/60/Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png/600px-Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/60/Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png 2x" data-file-width="745" data-file-height="224" /></a><figcaption>Reconstruction of the past 5 million years of climate history, based on <a href="/wiki/%CE%9418O" title="Δ18O">oxygen isotope fractionation</a> in deep sea sediment cores (serving as a proxy for the total global mass of glacial ice sheets), fitted to a model of <a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">orbital forcing</a> (Lisiecki and Raymo 2005)<sup id="cite_ref-99" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-99"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>99<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and to the temperature scale derived from <a href="/wiki/Vostok_Station#Ice_core_drilling" title="Vostok Station">Vostok</a> ice cores following Petit et al. (1999).<sup id="cite_ref-100" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-100"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>100<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </figcaption></figure> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record" title="Geologic temperature record">Geologic temperature record</a></div> <p>On longer time scales, sediment cores show that the cycles of glacials and interglacials are part of a deepening phase within a prolonged ice age that began with the glaciation of <a href="/wiki/Antarctica" title="Antarctica">Antarctica</a> approximately 40 million years ago. This deepening phase, and the accompanying cycles, largely began approximately 3 million years ago with the growth of continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. Gradual changes in Earth's climate of this kind have been frequent during the existence of planet Earth. Some of them are attributed to changes in the configuration of continents and oceans due to <a href="/wiki/Continental_drift" title="Continental drift">continental drift</a>.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (May 2022)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=30" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1266661725">.mw-parser-output .portalbox{padding:0;margin:0.5em 0;display:table;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:175px;list-style:none}.mw-parser-output .portalborder{border:1px solid var(--border-color-base,#a2a9b1);padding:0.1em;background:var(--background-color-neutral-subtle,#f8f9fa)}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-entry{display:table-row;font-size:85%;line-height:110%;height:1.9em;font-style:italic;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-image{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em;vertical-align:middle;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output 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the Common Era</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a> – Data visualization graphics of long-term trends of annual temperature anomalies</li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=31" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output 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.id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite 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href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/1752-0894">1752-0894</a>. <a href="/wiki/PMC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMC (identifier)">PMC</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6675609">6675609</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31372180">31372180</a>.</cite><span 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href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/">"Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change"</a>. <a href="/wiki/NASA" title="NASA">NASA</a><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">23 February</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Global+Annual+Mean+Surface+Air+Temperature+Change&rft.pub=NASA&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdata.giss.nasa.gov%2Fgistemp%2Fgraphs_v4%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:3-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:3_3-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:3_3-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBrohanKennedyHarrisTett2006" class="citation journal cs1">Brohan, P.; Kennedy, J. J.; Harris, I.; Tett, S. F. B.; Jones, P. D. (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850". <i><a href="/wiki/Journal_of_Geophysical_Research" title="Journal of Geophysical Research">J. Geophys. Res.</a></i> <b>111</b> (D12): D12106. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JGRD..11112106B">2006JGRD..11112106B</a>. <a href="/wiki/CiteSeerX_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="CiteSeerX (identifier)">CiteSeerX</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.184.4382">10.1.1.184.4382</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1029%2F2005JD006548">10.1029/2005JD006548</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:250615">250615</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=J.+Geophys.+Res.&rft.atitle=Uncertainty+estimates+in+regional+and+global+observed+temperature+changes%3A+a+new+dataset+from+1850&rft.volume=111&rft.issue=D12&rft.pages=D12106&rft.date=2006&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fsummary%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.184.4382%23id-name%3DCiteSeerX&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A250615%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1029%2F2005JD006548&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2006JGRD..11112106B&rft.aulast=Brohan&rft.aufirst=P.&rft.au=Kennedy%2C+J.+J.&rft.au=Harris%2C+I.&rft.au=Tett%2C+S.+F.+B.&rft.au=Jones%2C+P.+D.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature/validation/#:~:text=The%20most%20widespread%20instruments%20for,results%20back%20to%20the%20surface.">"Remote Sensing Systems"</a>. <i>www.remss.com</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">19 May</span> 2022</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=www.remss.com&rft.atitle=Remote+Sensing+Systems&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.remss.com%2Fmeasurements%2Fupper-air-temperature%2Fvalidation%2F%23%3A~%3Atext%3DThe%2520most%2520widespread%2520instruments%2520for%2Cresults%2520back%2520to%2520the%2520surface.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/decadaltemp.php">World of change: Global Temperatures</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190903121233/https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/decadaltemp.php">Archived</a> 2019-09-03 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> The global mean surface air temperature for the period 1951-1980 was estimated to be 14 °C (57 °F), with an uncertainty of several tenths of a degree.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-NASAtemp_20230904-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-NASAtemp_20230904_6-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://science.nasa.gov/resource/solar-system-temperatures/">"Solar System Temperatures"</a>. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). 4 September 2023. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.today/20231001035325/https://science.nasa.gov/resource/solar-system-temperatures/">Archived</a> from the original on 1 October 2023.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Solar+System+Temperatures&rft.pub=National+Aeronautics+and+Space+Administration+%28NASA%29&rft.date=2023-09-04&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fscience.nasa.gov%2Fresource%2Fsolar-system-temperatures%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span> (<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20231001035210/https://smd-cms.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Solar_System_Thermometer-02152022.jpg">link to NASA graphic</a>)</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Copernicus_20230615-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Copernicus_20230615_7-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/custom-uploads/Page%20Uploads/daily%20GAT.png">"Tracking breaches of the 1.5 °C global warming threshold"</a>. Copernicus Programme. 15 June 2023. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230914161957/https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/custom-uploads/Page%20Uploads/daily%20GAT.png">Archived</a> from the original on 14 September 2023.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Tracking+breaches+of+the+1.5+%C2%B0C+global+warming+threshold&rft.pub=Copernicus+Programme&rft.date=2023-06-15&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fclimate.copernicus.eu%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fcustom-uploads%2FPage%2520Uploads%2Fdaily%2520GAT.png&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:03-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:03_8-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:03_8-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:03_8-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:03_8-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:03_8-4"><sup><i><b>e</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:03_8-5"><sup><i><b>f</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFIPCC_AR6_WG1_Summary_for_Policymakers2021" class="citation book cs1"><a href="/wiki/IPCC" class="mw-redirect" title="IPCC">IPCC</a> (2021). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf">"Summary for Policymakers"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"><i>The Physical Science Basis</i></a>. 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Washington DC, USA: American Association for the Advancement of Science. 21 October 2009. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/ssi/climate-change-statement-from.pdf">the original</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> on 6 August 2013.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Joint-statement+on+climate+change+by+leaders+of+18+scientific+organizations&rft.place=Washington+DC%2C+USA&rft.pub=American+Association+for+the+Advancement+of+Science&rft.date=2009-10-21&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ucsusa.org%2Fassets%2Fdocuments%2Fssi%2Fclimate-change-statement-from.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span> Joint-statement by leaders of 18 scientific organizations: <a href="/wiki/American_Association_for_the_Advancement_of_Science" title="American Association for the Advancement of Science">American Association for the Advancement of Science</a>, <a href="/wiki/American_Chemical_Society" title="American Chemical Society">American Chemical Society</a>, <a href="/wiki/American_Geophysical_Union" title="American Geophysical Union">American Geophysical Union</a>, <a href="/wiki/American_Institute_of_Biological_Sciences" title="American Institute of Biological Sciences">American Institute of Biological Sciences</a>, <a href="/wiki/American_Meteorological_Society" title="American Meteorological Society">American Meteorological Society</a>, <a href="/wiki/American_Society_of_Agronomy" title="American Society of Agronomy">American Society of Agronomy</a>, <a href="/wiki/American_Society_of_Plant_Biologists" title="American Society of Plant Biologists">American Society of Plant Biologists</a>, <a href="/wiki/American_Statistical_Association" title="American Statistical Association">American Statistical Association</a>, <a href="/w/index.php?title=Association_of_Ecosystem_Research_Centers&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Association of Ecosystem Research Centers (page does not exist)">Association of Ecosystem Research Centers</a>, <a href="/wiki/Botanical_Society_of_America" title="Botanical Society of America">Botanical Society of America</a>, <a href="/wiki/Crop_Science_Society_of_America" title="Crop Science Society of America">Crop Science Society of America</a>, <a href="/wiki/Ecological_Society_of_America" title="Ecological Society of America">Ecological Society of America</a>, <a href="/w/index.php?title=Natural_Science_Collections&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Natural Science Collections (page does not exist)">Natural Science Collections</a>, <a href="/w/index.php?title=Alliance_Organization_of_Biological_Field_Stations&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Alliance Organization of Biological Field Stations (page does not exist)">Alliance Organization of Biological Field Stations</a>, <a href="/wiki/Society_for_Industrial_and_Applied_Mathematics" title="Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics">Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics</a>, <a href="/wiki/Society_of_Systematic_Biologists" title="Society of Systematic Biologists">Society of Systematic Biologists</a>, <a href="/wiki/Soil_Science_Society_of_America" title="Soil Science Society of America">Soil Science Society of America</a>, <a href="/wiki/University_Corporation_for_Atmospheric_Research" title="University Corporation for Atmospheric Research">University Corporation for Atmospheric Research</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-64"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-64">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFWalsh,_J." class="citation cs2">Walsh, J.; et al., <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/download/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-appendix1-CAQ.pdf"><i>Figure 6: Short-term Variations Versus Long-term Trend, in: D. Is the global temperature still increasing? Isn't there recent evidence that it is actually 1 cooling?, in: Appendix I: NCA Climate Science – Addressing Commonly Asked Questions from A to Z</i></a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Figure+6%3A+Short-term+Variations+Versus+Long-term+Trend%2C+in%3A+D.+Is+the+global+temperature+still+increasing%3F+Isn%27t+there+recent+evidence+that+it+is+actually+1+cooling%3F%2C+in%3A+Appendix+I%3A+NCA+Climate+Science+%E2%80%93+Addressing+Commonly+Asked+Questions+from+A+to+Z&rft.au=Walsh%2C+J.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fncadac.globalchange.gov%2Fdownload%2FNCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-appendix1-CAQ.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span>, in <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://downloads.globalchange.gov/nca/nca3-drafts/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-fulldraft.pdf">NCADAC 2013 p. 1065</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220119004317/https://downloads.globalchange.gov/nca/nca3-drafts/NCAJan11-2013-publicreviewdraft-fulldraft.pdf">Archived</a> 19 January 2022 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-NA_brief-65"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-NA_brief_65-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20070611231645/http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/climate-change-final.pdf">"Understanding and Responding to Climate Change – Highlights of National Academies Reports"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <a href="/wiki/United_States_National_Academies" class="mw-redirect" title="United States National Academies">United States National Academies</a>. 2005. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://dels.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/climate-change-final.pdf">the original</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> on 11 June 2007<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">13 July</span> 2007</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Understanding+and+Responding+to+Climate+Change+%E2%80%93+Highlights+of+National+Academies+Reports&rft.pub=United+States+National+Academies&rft.date=2005&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fdels.nas.edu%2Fdels%2Frpt_briefs%2Fclimate-change-final.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-SciDaily1011-66"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-SciDaily1011_66-3"><sup><i><b>d</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111021144716.htm">"Cooling the Warming Debate: Major New Analysis Confirms That Global Warming Is Real"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Science_Daily" class="mw-redirect" title="Science Daily">Science Daily</a></i>. 21 October 2011<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 October</span> 2011</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Science+Daily&rft.atitle=Cooling+the+Warming+Debate%3A+Major+New+Analysis+Confirms+That+Global+Warming+Is+Real&rft.date=2011-10-21&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedaily.com%2Freleases%2F2011%2F10%2F111021144716.htm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-67"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-67">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">see also: <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFPBS2007" class="citation web cs1">PBS (10 January 2007). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/hansen.html">"Interviews – James Hansen: Hot Politics: FRONTLINE: PBS"</a>. PBS.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Interviews+%E2%80%93+James+Hansen%3A+Hot+Politics%3A+FRONTLINE%3A+PBS&rft.pub=PBS&rft.date=2007-01-10&rft.au=PBS&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pbs.org%2Fwgbh%2Fpages%2Ffrontline%2Fhotpolitics%2Finterviews%2Fhansen.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span>. "<i>(...) The 1990s is the real appearance of the science skeptics. How much did they come after you?</i> I actually don't like the word "skeptics" for them; I think it's better to call them "contrarians", because skepticism is part of science; all scientists are skeptics (...)"</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Guardian1011-68"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Guardian1011_68-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFIan_Sample2011" class="citation news cs1">Ian Sample (20 October 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/20/global-warming-study-climate-sceptics">"Global warming study finds no grounds for climate sceptics' concerns"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/The_Guardian" title="The Guardian">The Guardian</a></i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 October</span> 2011</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Guardian&rft.atitle=Global+warming+study+finds+no+grounds+for+climate+sceptics%27+concerns&rft.date=2011-10-20&rft.au=Ian+Sample&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fenvironment%2F2011%2Foct%2F20%2Fglobal-warming-study-climate-sceptics&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-bbcBlack-69"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-bbcBlack_69-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFRichard_Black2011" class="citation news cs1">Richard Black (21 October 2011). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071">"Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/BBC_News" title="BBC News">BBC News</a></i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">21 October</span> 2011</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=BBC+News&rft.atitle=Global+warming+%27confirmed%27+by+independent+study&rft.date=2011-10-21&rft.au=Richard+Black&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fscience-environment-15373071&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Econ1011-70"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Econ1011_70-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.economist.com/node/21533360">"Climate change: The heat is on"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/The_Economist" title="The Economist">The Economist</a></i>. 22 October 2011<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 October</span> 2011</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Economist&rft.atitle=Climate+change%3A+The+heat+is+on&rft.date=2011-10-22&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Fnode%2F21533360&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-71"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-71">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">e.g., see <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFCarter,_B.2006" class="citation news cs1">Carter, B. (9 April 2006). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3624242/There-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-stopped-in-1998.html">"There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998"</a>. <i>The Daily Telegraph</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Daily+Telegraph&rft.atitle=There+IS+a+problem+with+global+warming...+it+stopped+in+1998&rft.date=2006-04-09&rft.au=Carter%2C+B.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fcomment%2Fpersonal-view%2F3624242%2FThere-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-stopped-in-1998.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-scott_variability_p1-72"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-scott_variability_p1_72-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-scott_variability_p1_72-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-scott_variability_p1_72-2"><sup><i><b>c</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">Edited quote from public-domain source: <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFScott,_M.2009" class="citation journal cs1">Scott, M. (31 December 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130219015155/http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2009/short-term-cooling-on-a-warming-planet">"Short-term Cooling on a Warming Planet, p.1"</a>. <i>ClimateWatch Magazine</i>. NOAA. Introduction. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2009/short-term-cooling-on-a-warming-planet">the original</a> on 19 February 2013<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">22 September</span> 2012</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=ClimateWatch+Magazine&rft.atitle=Short-term+Cooling+on+a+Warming+Planet%2C+p.1&rft.pages=Introduction&rft.date=2009-12-31&rft.au=Scott%2C+M.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.climatewatch.noaa.gov%2Farticle%2F2009%2Fshort-term-cooling-on-a-warming-planet&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-met_office_internal_variability-73"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-met_office_internal_variability_73-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-met_office_internal_variability_73-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMet_Office2009" class="citation web cs1">Met Office, Fitzroy Road (14 September 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20121027110118/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/global-warming">"Global warming set to continue"</a>. UK Met Office. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/global-warming">the original</a> on 27 October 2012.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Global+warming+set+to+continue&rft.pub=UK+Met+Office&rft.date=2009-09-14&rft.aulast=Met+Office&rft.aufirst=Fitzroy+Road&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.metoffice.gov.uk%2Fnews%2Freleases%2Farchive%2F2009%2Fglobal-warming&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-74"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-74">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAlbritton,_D.L.2001" class="citation book cs1">Albritton, D.L.; et al. (2001). Houghton, J.T.; et al. (eds.). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/011.htm#box1"><i>Box 1: What drives changes in climate? in: Technical Summary, in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i></a>. Cambridge University Press.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Box+1%3A+What+drives+changes+in+climate%3F+in%3A+Technical+Summary%2C+in%3A+Climate+Change+2001%3A+The+Scientific+Basis.+Contribution+of+Working+Group+I+to+the+Third+Assessment+Report+of+the+Intergovernmental+Panel+on+Climate+Change&rft.pub=Cambridge+University+Press&rft.date=2001&rft.au=Albritton%2C+D.L.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.grida.no%2Fclimate%2Fipcc_tar%2Fwg1%2F011.htm%23box1&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-scott_variability_p3-75"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-scott_variability_p3_75-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-scott_variability_p3_75-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">Edited quote from public-domain source: <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFScott,_M.2009" class="citation journal cs1">Scott, M. (31 December 2009). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2009/short-term-cooling-on-a-warming-planet/3">"Short-term Cooling on a Warming Planet, p.3"</a>. <i>ClimateWatch Magazine</i>. NOAA. Deciphering Natural Variability.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=ClimateWatch+Magazine&rft.atitle=Short-term+Cooling+on+a+Warming+Planet%2C+p.3&rft.pages=Deciphering+Natural+Variability&rft.date=2009-12-31&rft.au=Scott%2C+M.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.climatewatch.noaa.gov%2Farticle%2F2009%2Fshort-term-cooling-on-a-warming-planet%2F3&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-76"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-76">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Eyring, V., N. P. Gillett, K. M. Achuta Rao, R. Barimalala, M. Barreiro Parrillo, N. Bellouin, C. Cassou, P. J. Durack, Y. Kosaka, S. McGregor, S. Min, O. Morgenstern, Y. Sun, 2021, <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_03.pdf">Human Influence on the Climate System (chapter 3). In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220410134155/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter_03.pdf">Archived</a> 10 April 2022 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-ClimateLabBookSTACKED_20190721-77"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-ClimateLabBookSTACKED_20190721_77-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFHawkins2019" class="citation web cs1">Hawkins, Ed (21 July 2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2019/showyourstripes/#more-5629">"#ShowYourStripes / Temperature changes around the world (1901-2018)"</a>. <i>Climate Lab Book</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190802205935/http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2019/showyourstripes/">Archived</a> from the original on 2 August 2019.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Climate+Lab+Book&rft.atitle=%23ShowYourStripes+%2F+Temperature+changes+around+the+world+%281901-2018%29&rft.date=2019-07-21&rft.aulast=Hawkins&rft.aufirst=Ed&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.climate-lab-book.ac.uk%2F2019%2Fshowyourstripes%2F%23more-5629&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span> (<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190802210355/http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2019/06/all_countries_BBC-e1563724721978.png">Direct link to image</a>).</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-BBC_20190621-78"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-BBC_20190621_78-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAmos2019" class="citation news cs1">Amos, Jonathan (21 June 2019). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48678196">"The chart that defines our warming world / Is this the simplest way to show what is meant by global warming? The chart below organises all the countries of the world by region, time and temperature. The trend is unmistakeable"</a>. <i>BBC</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190629140556/https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48678196">Archived</a> from the original on 29 June 2019.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=BBC&rft.atitle=The+chart+that+defines+our+warming+world+%2F+Is+this+the+simplest+way+to+show+what+is+meant+by+global+warming%3F+The+chart+below+organises+all+the+countries+of+the+world+by+region%2C+time+and+temperature.+The+trend+is+unmistakeable.&rft.date=2019-06-21&rft.aulast=Amos&rft.aufirst=Jonathan&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fscience-environment-48678196&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span> (<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190626084354/https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/133A5/production/_107475787_climate_stripes_976-nc.png">Link to png image</a>)</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Hawkins_20181204-79"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Hawkins_20181204_79-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFHawkins2018" class="citation web cs1">Hawkins, Ed (4 December 2018). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/2018-visualisation-update/">"2018 visualisation update / Warming stripes for 1850-2018 using the WMO annual global temperature dataset"</a>. <i>Climate Lab Book</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190417024828/http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/2018-visualisation-update/">Archived</a> from the original on 17 April 2019. <q>LICENSE / Creative Commons License / These blog pages & images are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.</q></cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Climate+Lab+Book&rft.atitle=2018+visualisation+update+%2F+Warming+stripes+for+1850-2018+using+the+WMO+annual+global+temperature+dataset.&rft.date=2018-12-04&rft.aulast=Hawkins&rft.aufirst=Ed&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.climate-lab-book.ac.uk%2F2018%2F2018-visualisation-update%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span> (<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190403013148/http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/files/2018/12/wmo_stripes.png">Direct link to image</a>).</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-80"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-80">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, et al., 2021: <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf">Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220721021347/https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf">Archived</a> 21 July 2022 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a> [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-81"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-81">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFJ.T._Houghton2001" class="citation book cs1">J.T. Houghton; et al., eds. (2001). 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"Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of globally distributed benthic stable oxygen isotope records". <i>Pangaea</i>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1594%2FPANGAEA.704257">10.1594/PANGAEA.704257</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Pangaea&rft.atitle=Pliocene-Pleistocene+stack+of+globally+distributed+benthic+stable+oxygen+isotope+records&rft.date=2005&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1594%2FPANGAEA.704257&rft.aulast=Lisiecki&rft.aufirst=L.+E.&rft.au=Raymo%2C+M.+E.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul></dd></dl> </span></li> <li id="cite_note-100"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-100">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFPetitJouzel,_J.Raynaud,_D.Barkov,_N._I.1999" class="citation journal cs1">Petit, J. R.; Jouzel, J.; Raynaud, D.; Barkov, N. I.; Barnola, J. M.; Basile, I.; Bender, M.; Chappellaz, J.; Davis, J.; Delaygue, G.; Delmotte, M.; Kotlyakov, V. M.; Legrand, M.; Lipenkov, V.; Lorius, C.; Pépin, L.; Ritz, C.; Saltzman, E.; Stievenard, M. (1999). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7rx4413n">"Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica"</a>. <i>Nature</i>. <b>399</b> (6735): <span class="nowrap">429–</span>436. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999Natur.399..429P">1999Natur.399..429P</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1038%2F20859">10.1038/20859</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:204993577">204993577</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Nature&rft.atitle=Climate+and+Atmospheric+History+of+the+Past+420%2C000+years+from+the+Vostok+Ice+Core%2C+Antarctica&rft.volume=399&rft.issue=6735&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E429-%3C%2Fspan%3E436&rft.date=1999&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A204993577%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1038%2F20859&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F1999Natur.399..429P&rft.aulast=Petit&rft.aufirst=J.+R.&rft.au=Jouzel%2C+J.&rft.au=Raynaud%2C+D.&rft.au=Barkov%2C+N.+I.&rft.au=Barnola%2C+J.+M.&rft.au=Basile%2C+I.&rft.au=Bender%2C+M.&rft.au=Chappellaz%2C+J.&rft.au=Davis%2C+J.&rft.au=Delaygue%2C+G.&rft.au=Delmotte%2C+M.&rft.au=Kotlyakov%2C+V.+M.&rft.au=Legrand%2C+M.&rft.au=Lipenkov%2C+V.&rft.au=Lorius%2C+C.&rft.au=P%C3%A9pin%2C+L.&rft.au=Ritz%2C+C.&rft.au=Saltzman%2C+E.&rft.au=Stievenard%2C+M.&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.escholarship.org%2Fuc%2Fitem%2F7rx4413n&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AGlobal+surface+temperature" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Global_surface_temperature&action=edit&section=32" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20051104005338/http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/globaltemperature.html">Hadley Centre: Global temperature data</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/">NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies</a> (GISS) — Global Temperature Trends.</li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/">GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" 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Nations Climate Change conferences</a></li> <li>Years in climate change <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2019_in_climate_change" title="2019 in climate change">2019</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2020_in_climate_change" title="2020 in climate change">2020</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2021_in_climate_change" title="2021 in climate change">2021</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2022_in_climate_change" title="2022 in climate change">2022</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2023_in_climate_change" title="2023 in climate change">2023</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2024_in_climate_change" title="2024 in climate change">2024</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Effects_and_issues567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects and issues</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Physical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change" title="Abrupt climate change">Abrupt climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions" title="Arctic methane emissions">Arctic methane emissions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" title="Atlantic meridional overturning circulation">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">Drought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">Extreme weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Flood</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coastal_flooding" title="Coastal flooding">Coastal flooding</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">Heat wave</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Marine_heatwave" title="Marine heatwave">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_oceans" title="Effects of climate change on oceans">Oceans</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_deoxygenation" title="Ocean deoxygenation">deoxygenation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">heat content</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_stratification" title="Ocean stratification">stratification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">temperature</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost#Impacts_of_climate_change" title="Permafrost">Permafrost thaw</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">Retreat of glaciers since 1850</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Season_creep" title="Season creep">Season creep</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change" title="Tropical cyclones and climate change">Tropical cyclones</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_the_water_cycle" title="Effects of climate change on the water cycle">Water cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_wildfires" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and wildfires">Wildfires</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Flora and fauna</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_biomes" title="Effects of climate change on biomes">Biomes</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_birds" title="Climate change and birds">Birds</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_dieback" title="Forest dieback">Forest dieback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_invasive_species" title="Climate change and invasive species">Invasive species</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life#Climate_change" title="Human impact on marine life">Marine life</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_plant_biodiversity" title="Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity">Plant biodiversity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Social and economic</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture" title="Effects of climate change on agriculture">Agriculture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_livestock" title="Effects of climate change on livestock">Livestock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multiple_breadbasket_failure" title="Multiple breadbasket failure">Multi-breadbasket failure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and agriculture in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_children" title="Climate change and children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_cities" title="Climate change and cities">Cities</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse" title="Climate change and civilizational collapse">Civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_crime" title="Climate change and crime">Crime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_areas_depopulated_due_to_climate_change" title="List of areas depopulated due to climate change">Depopulation of settlements</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_landmarks_destroyed_or_damaged_by_climate_change" title="List of landmarks destroyed or damaged by climate change">Destruction of cultural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disability_and_climate_change" title="Disability and climate change">Disability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economic impacts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_insurance_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and insurance in the United States">U.S. insurance industry</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">Fisheries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_gender" title="Climate change and gender">Gender</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health" title="Effects of climate change on human health">Health</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_mental_health" title="Effects of climate change on mental health">Mental health</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_rights_and_climate_change" title="Human rights and climate change">Human rights</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_Indigenous_peoples" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and Indigenous peoples">Indigenous peoples</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_infectious_diseases" title="Climate change and infectious diseases">Infectious diseases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_migration" title="Climate migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_poverty" title="Climate change and poverty">Poverty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impacts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_security" title="Climate security">Security and conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_flooding" title="Urban flooding">Urban flooding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Water security</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa" title="Climate change in Africa">Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Americas" title="Climate change in the Americas">Americas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Antarctica" title="Climate change in Antarctica">Antarctica</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Asia" title="Climate change in Asia">Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia" title="Climate change in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Caribbean" title="Climate change in the Caribbean">Caribbean</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Europe" title="Climate change in Europe">Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa" title="Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa">Middle East and North Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_small_island_countries" title="Effects of climate change on small island countries">Small island countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Climate_change_by_country" title="Category:Climate change by country">by individual country</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Mitigation567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Mitigation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economics and finance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_budget" title="Carbon budget">Carbon budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">Carbon emission trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits" title="Carbon offsets and credits">Carbon offsets and credits</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gold_Standard_(carbon_offset_standard)" title="Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)">Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon price</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">Carbon tax</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_debt" title="Climate debt">Climate debt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_finance" title="Climate finance">Climate finance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk_insurance" title="Climate risk insurance">Climate risk insurance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Co-benefits_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Co-benefits of climate change mitigation">Co-benefits of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Economics of climate change mitigation">Economics of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment" title="Fossil fuel divestment">Fossil fuel divestment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund" title="Green Climate Fund">Green Climate Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_economy" title="Low-carbon economy">Low-carbon economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">Net zero emissions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Energy</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_transition" title="Energy transition">Energy transition</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">Fossil fuel phase-out</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">Renewable energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">Sustainable energy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Preserving and enhancing<br /> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">carbon sinks</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blue_carbon" title="Blue carbon">Blue carbon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">Carbon dioxide removal</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">Carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Direct_air_capture" title="Direct air capture">Direct air capture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_farming" title="Carbon farming">Carbon farming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate-smart_agriculture" title="Climate-smart agriculture">Climate-smart agriculture</a></li> <li>Forest management <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">afforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration#Forestry" title="Carbon sequestration">forestry for carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/REDD_and_REDD%2B" title="REDD and REDD+">REDD and REDD+</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use,_land-use_change,_and_forestry" title="Land use, land-use change, and forestry">Land use, land-use change, and forestry</a> (LULUCF and AFOLU)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Personal</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Individual_action_on_climate_change" title="Individual action on climate change">Individual action on climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">Plant-based diet</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Society_and_adaptation567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Society and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Society</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Business_action_on_climate_change" title="Business action on climate change">Business action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_action" title="Climate action">Climate action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration" title="Climate emergency declaration">Climate emergency declaration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_movement" title="Climate movement">Climate movement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/School_Strike_for_Climate" class="mw-redirect" title="School Strike for Climate">School Strike for Climate</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">Denial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_grief" title="Ecological grief">Ecological grief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_governance" title="Climate governance">Governance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_justice" title="Climate justice">Justice</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_litigation" title="Climate change litigation">Litigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Public opinion on climate change">Public opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Women_in_climate_change" title="Women in climate change">Women</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Adaptation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation_strategies_on_the_German_coast" title="Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast">Adaptation strategies on the German coast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_capacity" title="Adaptive capacity">Adaptive capacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_risk_reduction" title="Disaster risk reduction">Disaster risk reduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem-based_adaptation" title="Ecosystem-based adaptation">Ecosystem-based adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Flood control">Flood control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loss_and_damage_(climate_change)" title="Loss and damage (climate change)">Loss and damage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_retreat" title="Managed retreat">Managed retreat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_resilience" title="Climate resilience">Resilience</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk" title="Climate risk">Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_vulnerability" title="Climate change vulnerability">Vulnerability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Adaptation_Fund" title="The Adaptation Fund">The Adaptation Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action" title="National Adaptation Programme of Action">National Adaptation Programme of Action</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_communication" title="Climate communication">Communication</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_Change_Performance_Index" title="Climate Change Performance Index">Climate Change Performance Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_crisis" title="Climate crisis">Climate crisis (term)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">Climate spiral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_education" title="Climate change education">Education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Popular culture depictions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_art" title="Climate change art">art</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_climate_change_video_games" class="mw-redirect" title="List of climate change video games">video games</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">International agreements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Glasgow_Climate_Pact" title="Glasgow Climate Pact">Glasgow Climate Pact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cooperative_Mechanisms_under_Article_6_of_the_Paris_Agreement" title="Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement">Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contributions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goal_13" title="Sustainable Development Goal 13">Sustainable Development Goal 13</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Background_and_theory567" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Background and theory</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Measurements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Global surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_carbon_cycle" title="Atmospheric carbon cycle">atmospheric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_pump" title="Biological pump">biologic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oceanic_carbon_cycle" title="Oceanic carbon cycle">oceanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle" title="Permafrost carbon cycle">permafrost</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">Carbon sink</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_feedback" title="Cloud feedback">Cloud feedback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_forcing" class="mw-redirect" title="Cloud forcing">Cloud forcing</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fixed_anvil_temperature_hypothesis" title="Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cryosphere" title="Cryosphere">Cryosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_event_attribution" title="Extreme event attribution">Extreme event attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedbacks" title="Climate change feedbacks">Feedbacks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_warming_potential" title="Global warming potential">Global warming potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illustrative_model_of_greenhouse_effect_on_climate_change" title="Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change">Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">Orbital forcing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">Radiative forcing</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Research and modelling</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">Climate change scenario</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">Climate model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> <ul><li><a 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