用电高峰提前，用电大省缺电，为何煤价还是下跌？

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<div class="bt-share mt20"> <a title="分享到微信" href="javascript:void(0);" lay-active="showQrcode"> <img src="https://www.nengyuanjie.net/statics/images/weixin.gif"> </a> </div> </span> <div class="content"><p style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">5月以来，广东、广西、云南、贵州、海南等南方五省区用电负荷、用电量持续上升，不只南方五省，近期全国多地用电情况都持续升温，5月份累计用电量同比增长接近10%。迎峰度夏期间，华东、华中、南方区域电力供需形势偏紧。</p> <p style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">今年以来经济形式整体向好，带动工业耗电上涨，叠加现阶段部分地区的高温天气及夏季的高温预期，未来几月用电负荷还将升高。</p> <p style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">在用电负荷持续高位情况下，全国范围部分水力发电受降水量偏低影响较为乏力。水电大省云南电力供应形势严峻；用电大省广东，用电量持续攀升。云南、广东分别是南方电网体系中最大的送电方和用电方，广东风电、光伏发电的占比仍然比较小，现阶段广东缺电形式有所加剧。</p> <p style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">在用电大省缺电，全国用电负荷持续攀升的背景下，煤价却一路阴跌，并且跌势不止。近日以来产地端成交低迷，情绪悲观；港口端采购暂停，竞价内卷。煤价如此不寻常，还是得看下游需求。</p> <p style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">非电端，煤化工和水泥耗煤弱势依旧。煤化工产品尿素方面，工农业需求释放有限，各地区追肥也进入尾声，现货持续下跌，后续尿素市场难有利好因素支撑；煤化工产品甲醇方面，春检结束后，开工率和产量都有所上升，库存压力持续，而甲醇传统下游处于消费淡季，市场谨慎观望，后续甲醇市场预计弱势运行；水泥耗煤方面，房地产受资金问题困扰，开工偏低，全国范围混凝土市场小幅下调，水泥煤价差指数持续低位，后续水泥市场延续弱势运行。</p> <p style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">终端电厂及港口方面，沿海地区港口和发电企业的动力煤库存明显高于同期，北方四港动力煤库存处于近三年高位。高产量、高库存、高进口持续压制煤价，市场供应过分宽松，产地及港口价格持续承压。</p> <p style="margin: 5px 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">总结下来，非电方面弱势延续，煤化工与煤炭市场近月来同步下行，需求难有提振；电厂库存持续高位，港口中转端库存也持续累计。未来工业用电及房地产复苏仍有一定预期，房地产资金重组及烂尾楼盘归属划分持续进行，但现阶段电煤库存持续高位下，就算各行业复苏好转，市场回暖带来的提振仍有一定的滞后性，煤价短期内难有提升，持续关注非电端发力及终端库存情况。</p> </div> </div> <div class="art-bottom-func"> <div class="tags fl"> <i class="iconfont icon-huiyuanbiaoqian" style="display: none;"></i> <a href="https://www.nengyuanjie.net/s.html?keyword=煤价">煤价</a> <span class="jg">/</span> <a href="https://www.nengyuanjie.net/s.html?keyword=动力煤">动力煤</a> <span 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