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class="left"> <h2 class="widgettitle">Authors</h2> <ul> <li class="widget widget_authors"> <ul><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=4" title="Posts by Bill Butz">Bill Butz</a> (7)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=6" title="Posts by Carl Haub">Carl Haub</a> (5)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=11" title="Posts by Charlie Teller">Charlie Teller</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=19" title="Posts by Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs">Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=14" title="Posts by Deborah Mesce">Deborah Mesce</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=10" title="Posts by Eric Zuehlke">Eric Zuehlke</a> (2)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=20" title="Posts by Farzaneh Roudi">Farzaneh Roudi</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=13" title="Posts by Jason Bremner">Jason Bremner</a> (6)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=16" title="Posts by Jay Gribble">Jay Gribble</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=18" title="Posts by Karin Ringheim">Karin Ringheim</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=17" title="Posts by Marissa Yeakey">Marissa Yeakey</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=12" title="Posts by Mark Mather">Mark Mather</a> (4)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=21" title="Posts by Nadwa Mossaad">Nadwa Mossaad</a> (1)</li><li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?author=15" title="Posts by Victoria Ebin">Victoria Ebin</a> (2)</li></ul> </li> </ul> <ul> <li id="categories-1" class="widget widget_categories"><h2 class="widgettitle">Topics</h2> <ul> <li class="cat-item cat-item-3"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=3" title="Blog on the PRB topic- Education">Education</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-4"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Environment">Environment</a> (9) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-5"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=5" title="Blog on the PRB topic of Gender">Gender</a> (3) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-6"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=6" title="Blog on the PRB topic of HIV/AIDS">HIV/AIDS</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-7"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=7" title="Blog on the PRB Topic of Immigration/Migration">Immigration/Migration</a> (2) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-8"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=8" title="Blog on the topic of Income/Poverty">Income/Poverty</a> (5) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-9"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=9" title="Blog on the topic of Marriage Family">Marriage/Family</a> (1) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-10 current-cat"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="Blog about the topic of Population basics">Population Basics</a> (14) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-31"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=31" title="View all posts filed under PRB News">PRB News</a> (18) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-12"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=12" title="Blog on the topic of reproductive health ">Reproductive Health</a> (11) </li> <li class="cat-item cat-item-13"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=13" title="Blog on the topic of Youth">Youth</a> (6) </li> </ul> </li> <li id="tag_cloud" class="widget widget_tag_cloud"><h2 class="widgettitle">Tags</h2> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=burkina-faso" class="tag-link-61" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Burkina Faso</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=census" class="tag-link-39" title="6 topics" style="font-size: 15pt;">census</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=cities" class="tag-link-68" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">cities</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=climate-change" 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title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Europe</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=evaluation" class="tag-link-48" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">evaluation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=family-planning" class="tag-link-27" title="9 topics" style="font-size: 19.2pt;">family planning</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=fertility" class="tag-link-45" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 10.8pt;">fertility</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=food" class="tag-link-32" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">food</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=hivaids" class="tag-link-6" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">HIV/AIDS</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=india" class="tag-link-58" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">India</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=iran" class="tag-link-65" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Iran</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=journalism" class="tag-link-42" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">journalism</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=kenya" class="tag-link-54" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 16.4pt;">Kenya</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=mali" class="tag-link-62" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Mali</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=malnutrition" class="tag-link-33" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">malnutrition</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=media" class="tag-link-59" title="7 topics" style="font-size: 16.4pt;">media</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=migrants" class="tag-link-36" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">migrants</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=nano" class="tag-link-63" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Nano</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=pakistan" class="tag-link-52" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Pakistan</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=photos" class="tag-link-51" title="3 topics" style="font-size: 10.8pt;">photos</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=policy" class="tag-link-30" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">policy</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=population-growth" class="tag-link-38" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">population growth</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=poverty" class="tag-link-29" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">poverty</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=prb-in-the-field" class="tag-link-50" title="11 topics" style="font-size: 22pt;">PRB in the field</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=recession" class="tag-link-67" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">recession</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=rwanda" class="tag-link-56" title="2 topics" style="font-size: 9.4pt;">Rwanda</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=senegal" class="tag-link-60" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Senegal</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=statistics" class="tag-link-44" title="4 topics" style="font-size: 12.2pt;">statistics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=tanzania" class="tag-link-49" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">tanzania</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=transportation" class="tag-link-64" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">transportation</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=turkey" class="tag-link-57" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Turkey</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=us" class="tag-link-40" title="6 topics" style="font-size: 15pt;">U.S.</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=unemployment" class="tag-link-66" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">Unemployment</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?tag=urbanization" class="tag-link-70" title="1 topics" style="font-size: 8pt;">urbanization</a> <a 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class="widgettitle">Meta</h2> <ul> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/wp-login.php">Login</a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?feed=rss2" title="Syndicate this site using RSS 2.0">Entries <abbr title="Really Simple Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?feed=comments-rss2" title="The latest comments to all posts in RSS">Comments <abbr title="Really Simple Syndication">RSS</abbr></a></li> <li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://wordpress.org/" title="Powered by WordPress, state-of-the-art semantic personal publishing platform.">WordPress.org</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="middle"> <div id="post-72"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=72" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to World Population Data Sheet 2009 - 7 Billion People by 2011">World Population Data Sheet 2009 - 7 Billion People by 2011</a></h2> <p><small>August 13th, 2009 Eric Zuehlke</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=31" title="View all posts in PRB News" rel="category">PRB News</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=13" title="View all posts in Youth" rel="category">Youth</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=72#comments" title="Comment on World Population Data Sheet 2009 - 7 Billion People by 2011">2 Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Eric Zuehlke, editor</em></p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2009/2009wpds.aspx"><img border="0" align="left" width="117" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/mhtml:file://C:\Documents and Settings\ezuehlke\My Documents\Blog\Behind the Numbers The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment » Blog Archive » World Population Data Sheet 2009 - 7 Billion People by 2011.mht!http://www.prb.org/images09/WPDS09-HPthumb.jpg" height="134"/></a></p> <p>On August 12, PRB launched the annual <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2009/2009wpds.aspx"><em>World Population Data Sheet</em> </a>and accompanying <em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Publications/PopulationBulletins/2009/worldpopulationhighlights2009.aspx">Population Bulletin</a></em> in Washington, DC, highlighting country, regional, and global population, health, and environment data and patterns. This year’s data sheet places special emphasis on youth.</p> <p>The share of world’s youth population is growing in Africa and shrinking in More Developed Countries (MDCs). In 1950, 9 percent of the world’s youth lived in Africa and 30 percent lived in MDCs (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan). By 2050, that share will change to 29 percent in Africa and 11 percent in the MDCs. “The great bulk of today’s 1.2 billion youth—nearly 90 percent—are in developing countries,” said Carl Haub, PRB senior demographer and co-author of the data sheet. Eight in 10 of those youth live in Africa and Asia. “During the next few decades, these young people will most likely continue the current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and training opportunities, gainful employment, and adequate health care.” With the right investments in health, education, agricutlural develomment, and entrepreneurship, a large youth population can be an opportunity for development and change. However, these investments are not being made in many countries. The fundamental question facing many developing countries is whether the needs of their large youth populations will be met. The answer to this question will largely determine the development, stability, and future of developing countries. </p> <p>The data sheet shows just how stark the contrasts are between rich and poor countries in terms of population growth, life expectancy, income, and other indicators. Stay tuned for a webcast on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/">prb.org</a> of the data sheet launch at the National Press Club over the next week.</p> <p>We welcome your comments, input, questions on our findings and the implications of this on the world’s future. </p> <p>Here are just a few stories on the data sheet launch from around the world:</p> <p><strong>CNN:</strong> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/08/12/world.population/index.html">World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011</a></p> <p><strong>The New York Times DotEarth:</strong> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/12/a-billion-teenagers-for-better-or-worse/">A billion teenagers, for better or worse</a></p> <p><strong>National Post:</strong> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2009/08/12/world-population-to-hit-7-billion-by-2011-report.aspx">World population to hit 7 billion by 2011: report</a></p> <p><strong>Daily Dispatch (South Africa):</strong> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.dispatch.co.za/article.aspx?id=336510">Africa Will Battle for Resources</a></p> <p><strong>Xinhua (China):</strong> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-08/13/content_11872124.htm"><font color="#551a8b">Global population to hit 7 billion in 2011: US report</font></a></p> <p><strong>Pravda (Russia): </strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://newsfromrussia.com/russia/economics/13-08-2009/108831-population-0">Russian Population To Reduce to 110 Million by 2050 </a></p> <p><strong>The Sofia Echo (Bulgaria): </strong><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.sofiaecho.com/2009/08/13/769612_world-population-to-reach-94-billion-by-2050-report-says">World population to reach 9.4 billion by 2050, report says</a></p> <p><strong>The Sun (Malaysia):</strong> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.thesundaily.com/article.cfm?id=36902">US teen birth rates higher than rest of developed world </a></p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=72&title=World Population Data Sheet 2009 - 7 Billion People by 2011" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-71"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=71" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited">Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited</a></h2> <p><small>August 7th, 2009 Jason Bremner</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=4" title="View all posts in Environment" rel="category">Environment</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=71#comments" title="Comment on Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited">2 Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Jason Bremner, program director, Population, Health, and Environment</em> </p> <p>Andy Revkin’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/06/fertility-rise-for-richest-boon-or-trouble/">post this week </a>on The New York Times’ <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/">DotEarth blog </a>highlights a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/edsumm/e090806-10.html">recent paper </a>published in <em>Nature</em> that indicates that countries with the highest Human Development Index are seeing rises in fertility. Revkin asks if this is a boon or trouble, and refers specifically to what impact rising fertility among the richest countries might have on climate change.</p> <p>At first glance, the article suggests a fundamental change in our understanding of the relationship between fertility and development. However, the United Nations Population Division’s (UNPD) medium projections for world population already account for an increase in fertility among developed countries. The medium variant projection, which would put world population at about 9 billion by 2050 assumes that fertility in more developed countries will increase from a low level of 1.56 in the 1990’s to 1.8 by 2050. The world population projections are an aggregation of individual country level projections based on the most recent census and the best available data on fertility, mortality, and migration trends. Even for countries that have continued to experience fertility declines, such as Japan and Canada, the UNPD medium variant projection assumes an eventual reversal of the trend and an increase in fertility. More information about these assumptions can be found on <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=4">UNPD’s website</a>.</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3204/2446411820_af21325836_m.jpg"/></p> <p style="text-align: center"><em>Photo used under Creative Commons from </em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.flickr.com/photos/naoyafujii/"><em>naoyafujii</em></a></p> <p>As for the second part of the question (how will this increase impact the environment and specifically climate change), there is already quite a bit of research on the link between population and climate change, and population projections are already one of the backbones of the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s </a>(IPCC) carbon emissions <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0">scenarios.</a> The IPCC actually uses the UNPD’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=56">medium variant population projections </a>in their emissions scenarios, which suggests that the observed fertility increase among the most developed countries of the world is already accounted for in current scenarios. </p> <p align="left">A more important question, however, is whether the consideration of population growth alone is adequate in current IPCC scenarios. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Working_Papers/April_2009/Summary.shtml">Research summarized </a>by Population Action International suggests that age composition, the urban and rural distribution of a population, and the number of households as well as the number of people living in each household all have an impact on emissions. For example, estimates of carbon emissions in China are 45 percent greater if aging and urbanization trends are considered in scenarios in combination with population size, while in the United States, aging results in reduced emissions scenarios. </p> <p>Instead of asking whether rises in fertility in the most developed countries is a boon or trouble, perhaps we should examine what other types of demographic shifts are occurring and how these affect the environment. Are aging, urbanization, and household size affecting climate change more than fertility rates? If so, what should be done?</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=71&title=Fertility Rise for Richest and Climate Change Revisited" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-65"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=65" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Demographic Forces at Work to Change Iran">Demographic Forces at Work to Change Iran</a></h2> <p><small>June 22nd, 2009 Farzaneh Roudi</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=13" title="View all posts in Youth" rel="category">Youth</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=65#respond" title="Comment on Demographic Forces at Work to Change Iran">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Farzaneh (Nazy) Roudi, program director, Middle East and North Africa</em></p> <p align="left">Iran’s demographic momentum is in favor of those who aspire for social and political change. According to the 2006 Iranian census, one in three people in Iran is between the ages of 15 and 29. Furthermore, half the Iranian population of more than 70 million is under age 30, born around the 1979 Islamic revolution or after (see the age pyramid below). For them, the Islamic revolution is history and they want change now to address today’s needs. By their very nature, young people throughout the world aspire for a life different from and better than their parents, and in fact they are often the force behind changes in their societies. </p> <p style="text-align: center"><img width="527" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://www.prb.org/images09/iranagepyramid.gif" height="288" style="width: 501px; height: 277px"/></p> <p align="center"><strong>Source:</strong> Statistical Center of Iran</p> <p align="left">The youth bulge is more evident in Iran than any other country in the world because Iran has experienced the fastest fertility decline in the last two decades or so, according to a recent <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_text_tables.pdf">United Nations report</a> (see table A.14). According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, fertility declined by more than two-thirds, from 6.6 births per woman in the mid-1970s to about 2 births per woman in 2006. The most surprising and impressive decline occurred in rural areas. In one generation (a period of about 30 years), Iranian women living in rural areas moved from giving birth to 8 children to around 2 children, on average. </p> <p align="center"><strong>Iran’s Falling Fertility Rate by Area for Selected Years, 1977-2006</strong></p> <table border="1" align="center" width="319" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td rowspan="2" width="55" valign="top"> <p align="center"> </p> </td> <td colspan="4" width="264" valign="top"> <p align="center">Births per woman</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td width="47" valign="top">1977</td> <td width="61" valign="top">1996</td> <td width="60" valign="top">2000</td> <td width="96" valign="top">2006</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="55" valign="top">Urban</td> <td width="47" valign="top">4.5</td> <td width="61" valign="top">2.2</td> <td width="60" valign="top">1.8</td> <td width="96" valign="top">1.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="55" valign="top">Rural</td> <td width="47" valign="top">8.1</td> <td width="61" valign="top">3.5</td> <td width="60" valign="top">2.4</td> <td width="96" valign="top">2.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="55" valign="top">Total</td> <td width="47" valign="top">6.6</td> <td width="61" valign="top">2.8</td> <td width="60" valign="top">2.0</td> <td width="96" valign="top">1.9</td> </tr> </table> <p align="center"><strong>Source:</strong> Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education.</p> <p align="left">The rapid decline in the total fertility rate is due to simultaneous reduction at all ages: delay in childbearing by young couples, increased spacing of births by married women, and cessation of births by older women. These changes coincided with the revival of the national family planning program, delivered free through a nationwide network of primary health care facilities. Today, nearly 80 percent of married women of reproductive age use family planning and 60 percent of married women use a modern method.</p> <p align="left">Iranian women have been an accelerating force of development in the country, as manifested in their fertility behavior and desire to improve their life—55 percent of students enrolled in colleges and universities in 2005 were female. Having achieved their reproductive rights, Iranian women are now at the forefront of movements in the country that demand more rights and equality for all its citizens.</p> <p align="left">Whether Iran will manage to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend (having a large working-age population relative to the younger and older population groups who depend on the working-age population) all depends on how well its economy is equipped to create jobs for its rapidly expanding and mostly educated labor force. The youth unemployment rate (15 to 24 years old) stands at 23 percent, twice that of the total labor force. Finding a job is even more challenging for young women. One in three young Iranian women in the labor force (defined as either working or looking for a job) <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.sci.org.ir/content/userfiles/_sci_en/sci_en/sel/chekideh/ner-p-l-1387.pdf">are unemployed</a>. Young Iranians have been leaving the country in large numbers to find jobs in faraway places as Canada and Australia. The cost to the country for losing its human capital is <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6240287.stm">estimated to be $40 billion a year</a>.</p> <p align="left">Unemployment and high costs of living, coupled with social and political restrictions, have made it increasingly difficult for young Iranians. The sudden uprising that erupted following the disputed presidential election of June 12 is a manifestation of all the underlying frustrations. Young people’s demands for more political and social freedom and economic security cannot be ignored, not only because they are living at the dawn of 21st century and their demands are legitimate, but also because of their sheer numbers.</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=65&title=Demographic Forces at Work to Change Iran" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-61"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=61" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Need a Job? The Census Bureau is Hiring">Need a Job? The Census Bureau is Hiring</a></h2> <p><small>May 20th, 2009 Mark Mather</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=61#comments" title="Comment on Need a Job? The Census Bureau is Hiring">3 Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p align="left"><em>by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs</em></p> <p align="left">With the 2010 Census right around the corner, the Census Bureau is gearing up for one of the biggest hiring frenzies the United States has ever seen. Between 2009 and 2010, the Census Bureau hopes to hire 1.4 million temporary workers to help conduct census operations.</p> <p align="left">Let’s put those 1.4 million workers into perspective:</p> <ul> <li> <p align="left">The 1790 Census was conducted by 16 U.S. Marshals on horseback and their 650 assistants. (Today, most census enumerators must have a valid driver’s license and use of a car.) </p> </li> <li> <p align="left">By April 2010, there will be about 130 million households in the United States. That means there will be more than one census worker for every 100 U.S. households.</p> </li> <li> <p align="left">If all of the new census employees were drawn from the current ranks of the unemployed, the unemployment rate in would drop from 8.9 percent to 8.0 percent, almost a full percentage point.</p> </li> <li> <p align="left">Maine’s total population, according to the latest census estimates, is around 1.3 million. </p> </li> </ul> <p align="center"> <img onload="show_notes_initially();" width="500" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3653/3456200201_0b96c1f562.jpg?v=0" alt="Erin from the Census Bureau making her rounds in Minneapolis by adria.richards." height="375" style="width: 323px; height: 238px" class="reflect"/></p> <p align="center"><em>Photo used under Creative Commons from </em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.flickr.com/photos/adriarichards/"><em>adria.richards</em></a><em>.</em></p> <p align="left">Why are so many workers needed? Census 2010 is being billed as the “largest peacetime operation” ever conducted by the U.S. federal government. This spring, the Census Bureau hired 140,000 workers to help update more than 145 million addresses in the Census Bureau’s database. We recently spied one of these workers in Dupont Circle, the DC neighborhood where PRB’s offices are located. She wore a census badge and was entering data into a handheld computer.</p> <p align="left">However, most of the census workers will be hired in early 2010. Their main job is to interview—by phone or in person—people who fail to fill out and return their questionnaires. “Nonrespondent” households present a serious and growing problem for the Census Bureau. There were 42 million nonrespondent households in 2000 and more are expected in 2010, including many immigrants and others who fear and/or distrust the federal government.</p> <p align="left">Counting the U.S. population is not an easy job. But it is a critically important one. The federal government uses decennial census data to apportion congressional seats, draw state and local legislative districts, and to allocate billions of federal funds to states and local communities. Private organizations, such as PRB, use decennial census information to look at long-term demographic trends and to compare important population subgroups across states and local areas.</p> <p align="left">So we hope you will apply for the job. In the process, you might learn some interesting facts about your own community. For information about how to become a census taker in 2010, visit the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://2010.census.gov/2010censusjobs/">Census Bureau’s website </a>. For more information about the 2010 Census and why it’s important, visit <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Census2010.aspx">PRB’s website</a>. </p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=61&title=Need a Job? The Census Bureau is Hiring" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-52"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=52" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Censuses and Political Representation in India and the United States">Censuses and Political Representation in India and the United States</a></h2> <p><small>April 13th, 2009 Carl Haub</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=52#respond" title="Comment on Censuses and Political Representation in India and the United States">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Carl Haub, senior demographer</em></p> <p><em>(Thanks to O.P. Sharma, PRB’s consultant in India, for providing the data for this post and checking it for accuracy)</em></p> <p>With the 2010 U.S. Census, used to allocate seats in the House of Representatives, just around the corner and national elections now underway in India, this is a good time to look at how seats are allocated in both countries.</p> <p>In the United States, the constitutional purpose of the census is to allocate seats in the House. Of the 435 seats, each state receives one seat and the balance are allocated based on population size using the “method of equal proportions,” an ingenious method devised by Edward Vermilye Huntington, a Harvard instructor. Huntington’s method was established as the only method to be used in the future in 1941 in order to avoid the political squabbles that had erupted after previous censuses. The method allocates seats keeping the population size of each Congressional district as equal as possible. It is not possible for them to be exactly equal, of course. The number of seats is also important since a state’s electoral votes in Presidential elections is the number of House seats plus two (the number of Senate seats).</p> <p>In India, seats are also allocated based on population, but with a twist. India’s population policy was established in 1952 to lower the birth rate and slow population growth. Some states, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu in southern India, have performed very well. Others, such as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh in the north have not. These are very populous states as well as being India’s poorest. They are often referred to by the acronym “BIMARU,” which, by coincidence, also means “sick” in Hindi. Allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower, and more powerful chamber, was frozen back in 1973 to the 1971 Census count so as not to reward poorly-performing states on the family planning program with an increasing number of seats. As a result, as of 2001, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have 1.6 million population per seat, while Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have 2.1 million and Rajasthan a lofty 2.3 million per seat. So there.</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=52&title=Censuses and Political Representation in India and the United States" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-42"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=42" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Poverty">To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Poverty</a></h2> <p><small>January 14th, 2009 Bill Butz</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=8" title="View all posts in Income/Poverty" rel="category">Income/Poverty</a>, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=42#comments" title="Comment on To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Poverty">1 Comment »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Bill Butz, president and CEO</em></p> <p>“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Benjamin Disraeli</p> <p>“It <em>is</em> easy to lie with statistics, but it is easier to lie without them!” Frederick Mosteller</p> <p>This series of posts from PRB experts focuses on some of the important measures researchers and policymakers use when dealing with population, health, and the environment. We discuss definitions and controversies, quirks in their uses, and pitfalls to avoid. Along the way we relate some of our own experiences with uses and misuses (just keep these stories to yourself!). Look out for upcoming posts on income, the homeless, undocumented immigration, population density, urban and rural, carrying capacity, carbon footprint, hunger and malnutrition, the elderly, race and ethnicity, and household and family.</p> <p>This week, we tackle the measurement of poverty.</p> <p> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=42#more-42" class="more-link">Read the rest of this entry »</a></p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=42&title=To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Poverty" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-36"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=36" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to European Fertilty: First Do No Harm">European Fertilty: First Do No Harm</a></h2> <p><small>January 9th, 2009 Bill Butz</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=36#respond" title="Comment on European Fertilty: First Do No Harm">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Bill Butz, president and CEO</em></p> <p>In the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/publications/VYPR2008/VYPR2008.shtml">V</a><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/publications/VYPR2008/VYPR2008.shtml">ienna Institute of Demography’s conference proceedings on the question “Can policies enhance fertility in Europe?,” </a>I argue a little-heard view: Fertility in Europe is as likely to rise over the next ten years as it is to stay low or fall further. Most other experts expect European fertility rates—everywhere below population replacement levels for the last two or three decades, and in most countries way below—to stay low or decline still further.</p> <p>My argument rests on three legs: recent European fertility trends, an historical parallel, and the state of population science.</p> <p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/yearbook2008cover.gif" title="yearbook2008cover.gif"></p> <p style="text-align: center"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/yearbook2008cover.thumbnail.gif" alt="yearbook2008cover.gif"/></p> <p></a></p> <p><u>Recent European fertility trends</u>. Of the 39 European countries that have published total fertility rates for 2007, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/pdf08/08WPDS_Eng.pdf">17 record higher rates in 2007 than in 2000</a>. In some of the countries, the increase is slight and in several, much of the increase is due to the higher fertility of immigrants. Now, these increases may only be <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/publications/VYPR2008/Yearbook2008_Bongaarts_pp39-55.pdf">“tempo effects,”—couples making up for earlier delayed fertility—that will leave completed fertility low</a>. However, following several decades of declining fertility to historic lows, these recent increases are worthy of serious notice. Something more fundamental than birth timing may be going on.</p> <p><u>An historical parallel.</u> By the late 1930s, prominent population researchers in Europe and the United States were projecting a future of declining population growth. And why not? After more than a century of decreasing fertility rates in most industrialized countries, there was no reason to expect a sea change. Most prominent was Joseph Spengler, president-to-be of the Population Association of America, writing in 1938: “Within the next quarter century true depopulation—a persistent long-run excess of deaths over births—will manifest itself in nearly all the countries of Europe and in those non-European countries to which Western civilisation has spread” (<em>France Faces Depopulation</em>, 1938). Less than a decade after Spengler and others were raising the alarm came the “baby boom” in these same countries—totally unanticipated by demographers and others, as nearly as I can tell.</p> <p><u>The state of population science.</u> One objective of population science is to provide useful theories–conceptual constructs yielding predictions that are refutable by evidence. Most of the theories that have yielded such predictions, in the case of fertility in developed countries, have not fared well: What they predict doesn’t happen (that is, without recalibrating and otherwise jimmying the theories). In my view, there is not yet a theory sufficiently tested successfully against experience to trust with the demographic future of Europe.</p> <p><u>Do no harm.</u> In the face of a fertility leveling or increase across Europe, with history’s cautionary example, and without well-tested theory to guide our expectations, I believe population researchers cannot know with any confidence the near-term course of European fertility. This does not imply that governments leave fertility rates alone or that researchers turn their attention elsewhere. The consequences of continuing very low fertility are serious.</p> <p>What my agnostic forecast does imply, however, is that governments should consider only those pro-birth policies that do no harm to couples or society, if it turns out that fertility is increasing of its own accord or that the policies are ineffectual. Policies that provide child day care or otherwise reduce the conflicts between parents’ employment and child care are examples; by common reckoning, such policies would be desirable on grounds other than fertility enhancement. To the contrary, appeals to national interest that persuade some couples to have more children than they otherwise want or can afford are inappropriate; such policies may impose unnecessary and unacceptable costs to couples or society. First, do no harm.</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=36&title=European Fertilty: First Do No Harm" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-32"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=32" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Population">To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Population</a></h2> <p><small>January 6th, 2009 Bill Butz</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=32#respond" title="Comment on To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Population">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>by Bill Butz, president and CEO</em></p> <p>“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Benjamin Disraeli</p> <p>“It <em>is</em> easy to lie with statistics, but it is easier to lie without them!” Frederick Mosteller</p> <p>This is the first in a series of posts from PRB experts on some of the important measures researchers and policymakers use when dealing with population, health, and the environment. We’ll talk about definitions and controversies, quirks in their uses, and pitfalls to avoid. Along the way we’ll relate some of our own experiences with uses and misuses (just keep these stories to yourself!). Look out for upcoming posts on income, poverty, the homeless, undocumented immigration, population density, urban and rural, carrying capacity, carbon footprint, hunger and malnutrition, the elderly, race and ethnicity, and household and family.</p> <p>To begin, what else: Population!</p> <p align="center"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/elfotopakismo_.jpg" alt="elfotopakismo_.jpg"/></p> <p align="center"><em>Photo used under Creative Commons from </em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotopakismo/"><em>El Fotopakismo</em></a></p> <p align="left"> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=32#more-32" class="more-link">Read the rest of this entry »</a></p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=32&title=To Tell the Truth…With Statistics!: Population" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-30"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=30" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Where Are the Missing Three Million Ethiopians from the New Census: In Washington DC, in the Middle East or Hiding?">Where Are the Missing Three Million Ethiopians from the New Census: In Washington DC, in the Middle East or Hiding?</a></h2> <p><small>December 16th, 2008 Charlie Teller</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=30#comments" title="Comment on Where Are the Missing Three Million Ethiopians from the New Census: In Washington DC, in the Middle East or Hiding?">1 Comment »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p><em>Editor’s note: A previous version of this post did not include the concluding paragraph. We apologize for the accidental omission. </em></p> <p><em>by Charles Teller, PRB visiting scholar and Senait Tibebu, demographer, Addis Ababa</em></p> <p>We demographers are usually defensive about the relative accuracy of population censuses and intercensal projections. When the long-awaited May 2007 Ethiopian census results were released to the Parliament on Dec. 4 showing 74 million rather than the expected 77 million, there were headlines expressing shock, disbelief, manipulation, and cynicism.</p> <p>The outcries came from the regions with the greatest perceived undercount: Amhara which fell short by 2.4 million, and the Capital Addis Ababa, who can’t believe that their booming city has only 2.7 million inhabitants. It also came from Muslims who do not seem to accept the result which shows that their expected majority proportion grew only from 33 percent to 34 percent in the 13 year period. Even one skilled, high level government health official called it “reality- expectation mismatching.”</p> <p>The defenders might claim that the country’s high population growth rate has finally really slowed down, either for positive development reasons (girls’ education, later age at marriage, and higher contraceptive use), or from poverty, underemployment, and land pressure. Or they might say, look, your missing 2.4 Amharas might be in DC, in the Middle East, or hiding somewhere else.</p> <p>But the many skeptics, fed by the long delay in the release of the census and rumors from government post-census surveys, see nefarious manipulation by religious, ethnic, regional, and politically-motivated groups. Now, the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) admits that “errors might have occurred” in data collection in Amhara Region which might require a recount, but the Addis Ababa and religion estimates are reliable.</p> <p>It would have been better if technicians on population issues such as demographers, who labored on the complicated process of making projections (using some 13 variables), are brought into the debate. Doesn’t the media, and even the head of CSA, realize that in 1994, three alternative projections (variants) were made, and that after 13 years, the medium variant (the projection based on moderately effective national population and development-related changes) might not be the best option to base the argument on and maybe the lower variant which uses optimistic assumption is closer to the actual result? Furthermore, we have not yet been informed as to how post-census enumerations and checks were carried out.</p> <p>We see now how powerful a national census in an impoverished country can be for parliamentarians, the allocation of scarce resources, and for ethnic and religious pride. More technical analysis and open discussions are needed in this country where the press often seems to be not well informed and lacks technical details.</p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=30&title=Where Are the Missing Three Million Ethiopians from the New Census: In Washington DC, in the Middle East or Hiding?" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div id="post-27"> <h2><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=27" rel="bookmark" title="Permanent Link to Demand for Demographic Data in Ethiopia">Demand for Demographic Data in Ethiopia</a></h2> <p><small>December 5th, 2008 Jason Bremner</small> Posted in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?cat=10" title="View all posts in Population Basics" rel="category">Population Basics</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/?p=27#respond" title="Comment on Demand for Demographic Data in Ethiopia">No Comments »</a> </p> <div class="entry"> <p class="entry"><em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/2952934064_ce4a227cfc.jpg" title="2952934064_ce4a227cfc.jpg"></a>by Jason Bremner, program director, Population, Health, and Environment</em> </p> <p>As our vehicle drove along rural Ethiopian roads packed with children going to school, farmers headed to market, and animals headed for pastures, it was hard not to think about population, numbers, and types of people. My mind kept returning to the challenges of getting health and human services to densely populated rural areas of Ethiopia, the second largest country in Africa, where nearly 85% of the population live in rural areas. Meeting such a challenge should depend on reliable data on who and where people lived and what services they need, shouldn’t it?</p> <p>Well demographically speaking, it was an exciting and controversial time to be in Ethiopia. We heard several reports of the imminent release of the census data after waiting nearly 18 months since the 2007 census was conducted. The last Ethiopian national census was conducted well over a decade ago, in 1994, and results of the most recent count are highly anticipated among regional, national, and international organizations.</p> <p style="text-align: center"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://prbblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/2952934064_ce4a227cfc1.jpg" alt="2952934064_ce4a227cfc1.jpg"/></p> <p align="center"><em>Photo used under Creative Commons from </em><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.flickr.com/photos/babasteve/"><em>babasteve </em></a></p> <p align="left">Many aspects of the census, including population size, regional distribution, urban/rural composition, ethnic composition, and religion, however, lay in the controversial realm of regional budget distribution, ethno-regional and religious relations, and rural-urban migration trends. As my colleague and I traveled through Oromia, one of Ethiopia’s largest regions, and the S.N.N.P region, the densest and most diverse region, we couldn’t escape these controversies. We talked informally with decision makers about their interest in the census results and their use of different types of demographic data for decision-making. Unfortunately, despite the need for reliable data for regional and local planning, skepticism about the results abounds. The long delays in the release of the census results and possible controversies surrounding the findings have predisposed many people to distrust the census data.</p> <p>Returning to the roads, the people, and the animals I thought long and hard about the history of counting people, the field of demography, and the lives of these people. Whether it’s meant to be or not, a census can turn out to be so much more than a simple count of a nation’s people.</p> <p></p> </div>  <div class="addthis"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?pub=blogohblog&url=http://prbblog.org/?p=27&title=Demand for Demographic Data in Ethiopia" title="Bookmark using any bookmark manager!" target="_blank"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://s9.addthis.com/button1-bm.gif" width="125" height="16" border="0" alt="AddThis Social Bookmark Button"/></a></div> </div> <div class="br"><br/></div> <div> <div class="alignleft"><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://prbblog.org/index.php?cat=10&paged=2">« Previous Entries</a></div> <div class="alignright"></div> </div> <br/> </div> </td></tr></table></center>  <br/><br/> <div align="center"> <div align="center" id="ftr"><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer2.gif" width="3" height="23" align="right"/><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756im_/http://www.prb.org/images/footer1.gif" width="3" height="23" align="left"/><span class="footertext">Services: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Home/EmailSignup.aspx">Get E-Mail News</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Join.aspx">Join/Renew Membership</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Donate.aspx">Donate</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Bookstore.aspx">Bookstore</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Home/Contact.aspx">Contact</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/SpanishContent.aspx">Español</a>  ·  <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/FrenchContent.aspx">Français</a></span></div> <span class="footer2text"><b>Copyright 2007, Population Reference Bureau.</b> All rights reserved. • <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/http://www.prb.org/Home/Privacy.aspx">Privacy Policy</a></span><br/> <span class="footer2text">1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW • Suite 520 • Washington, DC 20009-5728 • USA <br/> <b>Phone:</b> 800-877-9881 • <b>Fax:</b> 202-328-3937 • <b>E-mail:</b> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090906020756/mailto:popref@prb.org">popref@prb.org</a></span><br/> </div>  </div>  <script type="text/javascript"> var gaJsHost = (("https:" == document.location.protocol) ? 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