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<span>Desired end states of comparative judgment</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Desired_end_states_of_comparative_judgment-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Desired end states of comparative judgment subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Desired_end_states_of_comparative_judgment-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Self-enhancement" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Self-enhancement"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Self-enhancement</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Self-enhancement-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Self-presentation" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Self-presentation"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>Self-presentation</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Self-presentation-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Personal_control/perceived_control" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Personal_control/perceived_control"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.3</span> <span>Personal control/perceived control</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Personal_control/perceived_control-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Information_about_self_versus_target" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Information_about_self_versus_target"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Information about self versus target</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Information_about_self_versus_target-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Information about self versus target subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Information_about_self_versus_target-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Person-positivity_bias" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Person-positivity_bias"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.1</span> <span>Person-positivity bias</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Person-positivity_bias-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Egocentric_thinking" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Egocentric_thinking"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.2</span> <span>Egocentric thinking</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Egocentric_thinking-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Underestimating_average_person's_control" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Underestimating_average_person's_control"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.3</span> <span>Underestimating average person's control</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Underestimating_average_person's_control-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Underlying_affect" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Underlying_affect"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3.4</span> <span>Underlying affect</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Underlying_affect-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Health_consequences" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Health_consequences"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Health consequences</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Health_consequences-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Neurosciences" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Neurosciences"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>Neurosciences</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Neurosciences-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Policy,_planning,_and_management" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Policy,_planning,_and_management"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>Policy, planning, and management</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Policy,_planning,_and_management-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Valence_effect" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Valence_effect"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>Valence effect</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Valence_effect-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Attempts_to_alter_and_eliminate" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Attempts_to_alter_and_eliminate"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">8</span> <span>Attempts to alter and eliminate</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Attempts_to_alter_and_eliminate-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Pessimism_bias" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Pessimism_bias"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">9</span> <span>Pessimism bias</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Pessimism_bias-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">10</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">11</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Bibliography" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Bibliography"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">12</span> <span>Bibliography</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Bibliography-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Further_reading" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Further_reading"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">13</span> <span>Further reading</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Further_reading-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">14</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-External_links-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" role="button" 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Available in 12 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-12" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">12 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B2_%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%A4%D9%84" title="انحياز للتفاؤل – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="انحياز للتفاؤل" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-bg mw-list-item"><a href="https://bg.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9E%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82" title="Оптимистична склонност – Bulgarian" lang="bg" hreflang="bg" data-title="Оптимистична склонност" data-language-autonym="Български" data-language-local-name="Bulgarian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Български</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sesgo_de_optimismo" title="Sesgo de optimismo – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Sesgo de optimismo" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%B3%D9%88%DA%AF%DB%8C%D8%B1%DB%8C_%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%B4%E2%80%8C%D8%A8%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C" title="سوگیری خوش‌بینی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="سوگیری خوش‌بینی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biais_d%27optimisme" title="Biais d'optimisme – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Biais d'optimisme" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%82%99%EA%B4%80%EC%A0%81_%ED%8E%B8%ED%96%A5" title="낙관적 편향 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="낙관적 편향" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94%D7%98%D7%99%D7%99%D7%AA_%D7%AA%D7%92%D7%95%D7%91%D7%94_%D7%90%D7%95%D7%A4%D7%98%D7%99%D7%9E%D7%99%D7%AA" title="הטיית תגובה אופטימית – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="הטיית תגובה אופטימית" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>עברית</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_do_otimismo" title="Viés do otimismo – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Viés do otimismo" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Português</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimism-bias" title="Optimism-bias – Swedish" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="Optimism-bias" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="Swedish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Svenska</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-th mw-list-item"><a href="https://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%84%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A1%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%B5%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%87%E0%B9%82%E0%B8%94%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%87%E0%B9%83%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%81%E0%B8%87%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%94%E0%B8%B5" title="ความเอนเอียงโดยการมองในแง่ดี – Thai" lang="th" hreflang="th" data-title="ความเอนเอียงโดยการมองในแง่ดี" data-language-autonym="ไทย" data-language-local-name="Thai" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>ไทย</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A3%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%96%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C_%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BC%D1%96%D0%B7%D0%BC%D1%83" title="Упередженість оптимізму – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Упередженість оптимізму" 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<div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Type of cognitive bias</div> <p><b>Optimism bias</b> or <b>optimistic bias</b> is a <a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias" title="Cognitive bias">cognitive bias</a> that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event. It is also known as <b>unrealistic optimism</b> or <b>comparative optimism</b>. It is common and transcends gender, ethnicity, nationality, and age.<sup id="cite_ref-Neural_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Neural-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Autism" title="Autism">Autistic people</a> are less susceptible to this kind of bias.<sup id="cite_ref-pm-reduced-optimism-bias_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pm-reduced-optimism-bias-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It has also been reported in other animals, such as rats and birds.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Four factors can cause a person to be optimistically biased: their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others, and overall mood.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The optimistic bias is seen in a number of situations. For example: people believing that they are less at risk of being a crime victim,<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> smokers believing that they are less likely to contract lung cancer or disease than other smokers, first-time bungee jumpers believing that they are less at risk of an injury than other jumpers,<sup id="cite_ref-weinstein1996_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinstein1996-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> or traders who think they are less exposed to potential losses in the markets.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Although the optimism bias occurs for both positive events (such as believing oneself to be more financially successful than others) and negative events (such as being less likely to have a drinking problem), there is more research and evidence suggesting that the bias is stronger for negative events (the "valence effect").<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-gouveia2001_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-gouveia2001-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Different consequences result from these two types of events: positive events often lead to feelings of well being and self-esteem, while negative events lead to consequences involving more risk, such as engaging in risky behaviors and not taking precautionary measures for safety.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Factors">Factors</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Factors"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The factors leading to the optimistic bias can be categorized into four different groups: desired end states of comparative judgment, <a href="/wiki/Cognitive" class="mw-redirect" title="Cognitive">cognitive</a> mechanisms, information about the self versus a target, and underlying <a href="/wiki/Affect_(psychology)" title="Affect (psychology)">affect</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These are explained more in detail below. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Measuring">Measuring</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Measuring"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Optimism bias is typically measured through two determinants of <a href="/wiki/Risk" title="Risk">risk</a>: absolute risk, where individuals are asked to estimate their likelihood of experiencing a negative event compared to their actual chance of experiencing a negative event (comparison against self), and comparative risk, where individuals are asked to estimate the likelihood of experiencing a negative event (their personal risk estimate) compared to others of the same age and sex (a target risk estimate).<sup id="cite_ref-gouveia2001_8-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-gouveia2001-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Problems can occur when trying to measure absolute risk because it is extremely difficult to determine the actual risk statistic for a person.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-klein2002_10-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-klein2002-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Therefore, the optimistic bias is primarily measured in comparative risk forms, where people compare themselves against others, through direct and indirect comparisons.<sup id="cite_ref-weinstein1996_6-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinstein1996-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Direct comparisons ask whether an individual's own risk of experiencing an event is less than, greater than, or equal to someone else's risk, while indirect comparisons ask individuals to provide separate estimates of their own risk of experiencing an event and others' risk of experiencing the same event.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-radcliffe2002_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-radcliffe2002-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>After obtaining scores, researchers are able to use the information to determine if there is a difference in the average risk estimate of the individual compared to the average risk estimate of their peers. Generally, in negative events, the mean risk of an individual appears lower than the risk estimate of others.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This is then used to demonstrate the bias' effect. The optimistic bias can only be defined at a group level, because at an individual level the positive assessment could be true.<sup id="cite_ref-gouveia2001_8-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-gouveia2001-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Likewise, difficulties can arise in measurement procedures, as it is difficult to determine when someone is being optimistic, realistic, or pessimistic.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-radcliffe2002_11-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-radcliffe2002-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Research suggests that the bias comes from an overestimate of group risks rather than underestimating one's own risk.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>An example: participants assigned a higher probability to picking a card that had a smiling face on its reverse side than one which had a frowning face.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Cognitive_mechanisms">Cognitive mechanisms</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Cognitive mechanisms"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The optimistic bias is possibly also influenced by three cognitive mechanisms that guide judgments and decision-making processes: the representativeness heuristic, singular target focus, and interpersonal distance.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Representativeness_heuristic">Representativeness heuristic</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Representativeness heuristic"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The estimates of likelihood associated with the optimistic bias are based on how closely an event matches a person's overall idea of the specific event.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Some researchers suggest that the <a href="/wiki/Representativeness_heuristic" title="Representativeness heuristic">representativeness heuristic</a> is a reason for the optimistic bias: individuals tend to think in stereotypical categories rather than about their actual targets when making comparisons.<sup id="cite_ref-weinstein1980_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinstein1980-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For example, when drivers are asked to think about a car accident, they are more likely to associate a bad driver, rather than just the average driver.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Individuals compare themselves with the negative elements that come to mind, rather than an overall accurate comparison between them and another driver. Additionally, when individuals were asked to compare themselves towards friends, they chose more vulnerable friends based on the events they were looking at.<sup id="cite_ref-perloff1986_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-perloff1986-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Individuals generally chose a specific friend based on whether they resemble a given example, rather than just an average friend.<sup id="cite_ref-perloff1986_14-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-perloff1986-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> People find examples that relate directly to what they are asked, resulting in representativeness heuristics. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Singular_target_focus">Singular target focus</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Singular target focus"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>One of the difficulties of the optimistic bias is that people know more about themselves than they do about others. While individuals know how to think about themselves as a single person, they still think of others as a generalized group, which leads to biased estimates and inabilities to sufficiently understand their target or comparison group. Likewise, when making judgments and comparisons about their risk compared to others, people generally ignore the average person, but primarily focus on their own feelings and experiences.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading4"><h4 id="Interpersonal_distance">Interpersonal distance</h4><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Interpersonal distance"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Perceived risk differences occur depending on how far or close a compared target is to an individual making a risk estimate.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The greater the perceived distance between the self and the comparison target, the greater the perceived difference in risk. When one brings the comparison target closer to the individual, risk estimates appear closer together than if the comparison target was someone more distant to the participant.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> There is support for perceived social distance in determining the optimistic bias.<sup id="cite_ref-harris2000_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris2000-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Through looking at comparisons of personal and target risk between the in-group level contributes to more perceived similarities than when individuals think about outer-group comparisons which lead to greater perceived differences.<sup id="cite_ref-harris2000_15-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris2000-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In one study, researchers manipulated the social context of the comparison group, where participants made judgements for two different comparison targets: the typical student at their university and a typical student at another university. Their findings showed that not only did people work with the closer comparison first, but also had closer ratings to themselves than the "more different" group.<sup id="cite_ref-harris2000_15-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris2000-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Studies have also noticed that people demonstrate more optimistic bias when making comparisons when the other is a vague individual, but biases are reduced when the other is a familiar person, such as a friend or family member. This also is determined due to the information they have about the individuals closest to them, but not having the same information about other people.<sup id="cite_ref-gouveia2001_8-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-gouveia2001-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Desired_end_states_of_comparative_judgment">Desired end states of comparative judgment</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Desired end states of comparative judgment"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Many explanations for the optimistic bias come from the goals that people want and outcomes they wish to see.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> People tend to view their risks as less than others because they believe that this is what other people want to see. These explanations include <a href="/wiki/Self-enhancement" title="Self-enhancement">self-enhancement</a>, self-presentation, and <a href="/wiki/Perceived_control" title="Perceived control">perceived control</a>. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Self-enhancement">Self-enhancement</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Self-enhancement"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Self-enhancement suggests that optimistic predictions are satisfying and that it feels good to think that positive events will happen.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> People can control their anxiety and other negative emotions if they believe they are better off than others.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> People tend to focus on finding information that supports what they want to see happen, rather than what will happen to them.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> With regards to the optimistic bias, individuals will perceive events more favorably, because that is what they would like the outcome to be. This also suggests that people might lower their risks compared to others to make themselves look better than average: they are less at risk than others and therefore better.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Self-presentation">Self-presentation</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Self-presentation"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Studies suggest that people attempt to establish and maintain a desired personal image in social situations. People are motivated to present themselves towards others in a good light, and some researchers suggest that the optimistic bias is a representative of self-presentational processes: people want to appear better off than others. This is not through conscious effort. In a study where participants believed their driving skills would be either tested in either real-life or driving simulations, people who believed they were to be tested had less optimistic bias and were more modest about their skills than individuals who would not be tested.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Studies also suggest that individuals who present themselves in a pessimistic and more negative light are generally less accepted by the rest of society.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This might contribute to overly optimistic attitudes. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Personal_control/perceived_control"><span id="Personal_control.2Fperceived_control"></span>Personal control/perceived control</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Personal control/perceived control"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>People tend to be more optimistically biased when they believe they have more control over events than others.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-klein2002_10-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-klein2002-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-harris1996_18-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris1996-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For example, people are more likely to think that they will not be harmed in a car accident if they are driving the vehicle.<sup id="cite_ref-harris1996_18-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris1996-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Another example is that if someone believes that they have a lot of control over becoming infected with HIV, they are more likely to view their risk of contracting the disease to be low.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Studies have suggested that the greater <a href="/wiki/Perceived_control" title="Perceived control">perceived control</a> someone has, the greater their optimistic bias.<sup id="cite_ref-harris1996_18-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris1996-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-weinstein1980_13-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinstein1980-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Stemming from this, control is a stronger factor when it comes to personal risk assessments, but not when assessing others.<sup id="cite_ref-klein2002_10-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-klein2002-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-harris1996_18-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris1996-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>A meta-analysis reviewing the relationship between the optimistic bias and <a href="/wiki/Perceived_control" title="Perceived control">perceived control</a> found that a number of moderators contribute to this relationship.<sup id="cite_ref-klein2002_10-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-klein2002-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In previous research, participants from the United States generally had higher levels of optimistic bias relating to perceived control than those of other nationalities. Students also showed larger levels of the optimistic bias than non-students.<sup id="cite_ref-klein2002_10-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-klein2002-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The format of the study also demonstrated differences in the relationship between perceived control and the optimistic bias: direct methods of measurement suggested greater perceived control and greater optimistic bias as compared to indirect measures of the bias.<sup id="cite_ref-klein2002_10-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-klein2002-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The optimistic bias is strongest in situations where an individual needs to rely heavily on direct action and responsibility of situations.<sup id="cite_ref-klein2002_10-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-klein2002-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>An opposite factor of <a href="/wiki/Perceived_control" title="Perceived control">perceived control</a> is that of prior experience.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Prior experience is typically associated with less optimistic bias, which some studies suggest is from either a decrease in the perception of personal control, or make it easier for individuals to imagine themselves at risk.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-weinstein1980_13-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinstein1980-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Prior experience suggests that events may be less controllable than previously believed.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Information_about_self_versus_target">Information about self versus target</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: Information about self versus target"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Individuals know a lot more about themselves than they do about others.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Because information about others is less available, information about the self versus others leads people to make specific conclusions about their own risk, but results in them having a harder time making conclusions about the risks of others. This leads to differences in judgments and conclusions about self-risks compared to the risks of others, leading to larger gaps in the optimistic bias.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Person-positivity_bias">Person-positivity bias</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: Person-positivity bias"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Person-<a href="/wiki/Positivity_bias" class="mw-redirect" title="Positivity bias">positivity bias</a> is the tendency to evaluate an object more favorably the more the object resembles an individual human being. Generally, the more a comparison target resembles a specific person, the more familiar it will be. Groups of people are considered to be more abstract concepts, which leads to less favorable judgments. With regards to the optimistic bias, when people compare themselves to an average person, whether someone of the same sex or age, the target continues to be viewed as less human and less personified, which will result in less favorable comparisons between the self and others.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Egocentric_thinking">Egocentric thinking</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=13" title="Edit section: Egocentric thinking"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Egotism" title="Egotism">Egotism</a></div> <p>"Egocentric thinking" refers to how individuals know more of their own personal information and risk that they can use to form judgments and make decisions. One difficulty, though, is that people have a large amount of knowledge about themselves, but no knowledge about others. Therefore, when making decisions, people have to use other information available to them, such as population data, in order to learn more about their comparison group.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This can relate to an optimism bias because while people are using the available information they have about themselves, they have more difficulty understanding correct information about others.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>It is also possible that someone can escape egocentric thinking. In one study, researchers had one group of participants list all factors that influenced their chances of experiencing a variety of events, and then a second group read the list. Those who read the list showed less optimistic bias in their own reports. It's possible that greater knowledge about others and their perceptions of their chances of risk bring the comparison group closer to the participant.<sup id="cite_ref-weinstein1980_13-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinstein1980-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Underestimating_average_person's_control"><span id="Underestimating_average_person.27s_control"></span>Underestimating average person's control</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=14" title="Edit section: Underestimating average person's control"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Also regarding egocentric thinking, it is possible that individuals underestimate the amount of control the average person has. This is explained in two different ways: </p> <ol><li>People underestimate the control that others have in their lives.<sup id="cite_ref-weinstein1980_13-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinstein1980-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li>People completely overlook that others have control over their own outcomes.</li></ol> <p>For example, many smokers believe that they are taking all necessary precautionary measures so that they won't get lung cancer, such as smoking only once a day, or using filtered cigarettes, and believe that others are not taking the same precautionary measures. It is likely that many other smokers are doing the same things and taking those same precautions.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Underlying_affect">Underlying affect</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=15" title="Edit section: Underlying affect"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The last factor of optimistic bias is that of underlying <a href="/wiki/Affect_(psychology)" title="Affect (psychology)">affect</a> and affect experience. Research has found that people show less optimistic bias when experiencing a negative mood, and more optimistic bias when in a positive mood.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Sad moods reflect greater memories of negative events, which lead to more negative judgments, while positive moods promote happy memories and more positive feelings.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This suggests that overall negative moods, including depression, result in increased personal risk estimates but less optimistic bias overall.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Anxiety also leads to less optimistic bias, continuing to suggest that overall positive experiences and positive attitudes lead to more optimistic bias in events.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Health_consequences">Health consequences</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=16" title="Edit section: Health consequences"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In health, the optimistic bias tends to prevent individuals from taking on preventative measures for good health.<sup id="cite_ref-bandb2010_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-bandb2010-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For example, people who underestimate their comparative risk of heart disease know less about heart disease, and even after reading an article with more information, are still less concerned about risk of heart disease.<sup id="cite_ref-radcliffe2002_11-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-radcliffe2002-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Because the optimistic bias can be a strong force in decision-making, it is important to look at how risk perception is determined and how this will result in preventative behaviors. Therefore, researchers need to be aware of the optimistic bias and the ways it can prevent people from taking precautionary measures in life choices. </p><p>Risk perceptions are particularly important for individual behaviors, such as exercise, diet, and even sunscreen use.<sup id="cite_ref-brewer2007_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-brewer2007-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>A large portion of risk prevention focuses on adolescents. Especially with health risk perception, adolescence is associated with an increased frequency of risky health-related behaviors such as smoking, drugs, and unsafe sex.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> While adolescents are aware of the risk, this awareness does not change behavior habits.<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Adolescents with strong positive optimistic bias toward risky behaviors had an overall increase in the optimistic bias with age.<sup id="cite_ref-bandb2010_19-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-bandb2010-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Unconditional risk questions in cross-sectional studies are used consistently, leading to problems, as they ask about the likelihood of an action occurring, but does not determine if there is an outcome, or compare events that haven't happened to events that have.<sup id="cite_ref-brewer2007_20-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-brewer2007-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> many times there are methodological problems in these tests. </p><p>Concerning vaccines, perceptions of those who have not been vaccinated are compared to the perceptions of people who have been. Other problems which arise include the failure to know a person's perception of a risk.<sup id="cite_ref-brewer2007_20-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-brewer2007-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Knowing this information will be helpful for continued research on optimistic bias and preventative behaviors. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Neurosciences">Neurosciences</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=17" title="Edit section: Neurosciences"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Functional neuroimaging suggests a key role for the rostral Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC) in modulating both emotional processing and autobiographical retrieval. It is part of brain network showing extensive correlation between rostral ACC and amygdala during imagining of future positive events and restricted correlation during imagining of future negative events. Based on these data, it is suggested that the rostral ACC has a crucial part to play in creating positive images of the future and ultimately, in ensuring and maintaining the optimism bias.<sup id="cite_ref-Neural_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Neural-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Policy,_planning,_and_management"><span id="Policy.2C_planning.2C_and_management"></span>Policy, planning, and management</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=18" title="Edit section: Policy, planning, and management"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Optimism bias influences decisions and forecasts in policy, planning, and management, e.g., the costs and completion times of planned decisions tend to be underestimated and the benefits overestimated due to optimism bias. The term <a href="/wiki/Planning_fallacy" title="Planning fallacy">planning fallacy</a> for this effect was first proposed by <a href="/wiki/Daniel_Kahneman" title="Daniel Kahneman">Daniel Kahneman</a> and <a href="/wiki/Amos_Tversky" title="Amos Tversky">Amos Tversky</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-PezzoLitman2006_22-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-PezzoLitman2006-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> There is a growing body of evidence proving that optimism bias represents one of the biggest single causes of risk for <a href="/wiki/Megaproject" title="Megaproject">megaproject</a> overspend.<sup id="cite_ref-Bent_Flyvbjerg_24-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Bent_Flyvbjerg-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Valence_effect">Valence effect</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=19" title="Edit section: Valence effect"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><b>Valence effect</b> is used to allude to the effect of <a href="/wiki/Valence_(psychology)" title="Valence (psychology)">valence</a> on unrealistic optimism.<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It has been studied by Ron S. Gold and his team since 2003.<sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> They frame questions for the same event in different ways: "some participants were given information about the conditions that promote a given health-related event, such as developing heart disease, and were asked to rate the comparative likelihood that they would experience the event. Other participants were given matched information about the conditions that prevent the same event and were asked to rate the comparative likelihood that they would avoid the event". They have generally found that unrealistic optimism was greater for negative than positive valence. </p><p>Valence effects, which is also considered a form of cognitive bias,<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_28-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> have several real-world implications. For instance, it can lead to the overestimation of a company's future earnings by investors and this could contribute to a tendency for it to becoming overpriced.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_28-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In terms of achieving organizational objectives, it could encourage people to produce unrealistic schedules helping drive a so-called <a href="/wiki/Planning_fallacy" title="Planning fallacy">planning fallacy</a>, which often result in making poor decisions and project abandonment.<sup id="cite_ref-29" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Attempts_to_alter_and_eliminate">Attempts to alter and eliminate</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=20" title="Edit section: Attempts to alter and eliminate"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Studies have shown that it is very difficult to eliminate the optimistic bias. Some commentators believe that trying to reduce it may encourage people to adapt to health-protective behaviors. Research has suggested that it cannot be reduced, and that efforts to reduce it tend to lead to even more optimistically biased results.<sup id="cite_ref-weinsteinklein1995_30-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinsteinklein1995-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In a research study of four different tests to reduce the optimistic bias, through lists of risk factors, participants perceiving themselves as inferior to others, participants asked to think of high-risk individuals, and giving attributes of why they were at risk, all increased the bias rather than decreased it.<sup id="cite_ref-weinsteinklein1995_30-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-weinsteinklein1995-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Other studies have tried to reduce the bias through reducing distance, but overall it still remains.<sup id="cite_ref-harris2000_15-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-harris2000-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>This seemingly paradoxical situation – in which an attempt to reduce bias can sometimes actually increase it – may be related to the insight behind the semi-jocular and <a href="/wiki/Recursion" title="Recursion">recursively</a> worded "<a href="/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law" title="Hofstadter's law">Hofstadter's law</a>", which states that: </p> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1244412712">.mw-parser-output .templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 32px}.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;margin-top:0}@media(min-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{padding-left:1.6em}}</style><blockquote class="templatequote"><p>It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account <a href="/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law" title="Hofstadter's law">Hofstadter's law</a>.</p></blockquote> <p>Although research has suggested that it is very difficult to eliminate the bias, some factors may help in closing the gap of the optimistic bias between an individual and their target risk group. First, by placing the comparison group closer to the individual, the optimistic bias can be reduced: studies found that when individuals were asked to make comparisons between themselves and close friends, there was almost no difference in the likelihood of an event occurring.<sup id="cite_ref-perloff1986_14-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-perloff1986-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Additionally, actually experiencing an event leads to a decrease in the optimistic bias.<sup id="cite_ref-helweg-larsen2001_9-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-helweg-larsen2001-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> While this only applies to events with prior experience, knowing the previously unknown will result in less optimism of it not occurring. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Pessimism_bias">Pessimism bias</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=21" title="Edit section: Pessimism bias"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The opposite of optimism bias is pessimism bias (or pessimistic bias), because the principles of the optimistic bias continue to be in effect in situations where individuals regard themselves as worse off than others.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Optimism may occur from either a distortion of personal estimates, representing personal optimism, or a distortion for others, representing personal pessimism.<sup id="cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-shepperd2002-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p><b>Pessimism bias</b> is an effect in which people <a href="/wiki/Exaggerate" class="mw-redirect" title="Exaggerate">exaggerate</a> the likelihood that negative things will happen to them. It contrasts with optimism bias. </p><p>People with <a href="/wiki/Psychological_depression" class="mw-redirect" title="Psychological depression">depression</a> are particularly likely to exhibit pessimism bias.<sup id="cite_ref-SharotRiccardi2007_31-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-SharotRiccardi2007-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Surveys of smokers have found that their ratings of their risk of <a href="/wiki/Heart_disease" class="mw-redirect" title="Heart disease">heart disease</a> showed a small but significant pessimism bias; the literature as a whole is inconclusive.<sup id="cite_ref-sutton_33-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-sutton-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=22" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239009302">.mw-parser-output .portalbox{padding:0;margin:0.5em 0;display:table;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:175px;list-style:none}.mw-parser-output .portalborder{border:1px solid var(--border-color-base,#a2a9b1);padding:0.1em;background:var(--background-color-neutral-subtle,#f8f9fa)}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-entry{display:table-row;font-size:85%;line-height:110%;height:1.9em;font-style:italic;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-image{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em;vertical-align:middle;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-link{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em 0.2em 0.2em 0.3em;vertical-align:middle}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .portalleft{clear:left;float:left;margin:0.5em 1em 0.5em 0}.mw-parser-output .portalright{clear:right;float:right;margin:0.5em 0 0.5em 1em}}</style><ul role="navigation" aria-label="Portals" class="noprint portalbox portalborder portalright"> <li class="portalbox-entry"><span class="portalbox-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/28px-Psi2.svg.png" decoding="async" width="28" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/42px-Psi2.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/56px-Psi2.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="100" data-file-height="100" /></span></span></span><span class="portalbox-link"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Psychology" title="Portal:Psychology">Psychology portal</a></span></li></ul> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1184024115">.mw-parser-output .div-col{margin-top:0.3em;column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .div-col-small{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .div-col-rules{column-rule:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .div-col dl,.mw-parser-output .div-col ol,.mw-parser-output .div-col ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .div-col li,.mw-parser-output .div-col dd{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}</style><div class="div-col" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Depressive_realism" title="Depressive realism">Depressive realism</a> – Hypothesis about depression</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illusion_of_control" title="Illusion of control">Illusion of control</a> – False belief in an ability to control events</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illusory_superiority" title="Illusory superiority">Illusory superiority</a> – Cognitive bias</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Normalcy_bias" title="Normalcy bias">Normalcy bias</a> – Disbelief or minimization in response to threat warnings</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nothing_to_hide_argument" title="Nothing to hide argument">Nothing to hide argument</a> – Argument that one does not need privacy unless they are doing something wrong</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Negativity_bias" title="Negativity bias">Negativity bias</a> – Tendency to give more importance to negative experiences</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Positivity_effect" title="Positivity effect">Positivity effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Positive_illusions" title="Positive illusions">Positive illusions</a> – Unrealistically favorable attitudes</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting" title="Reference class forecasting">Reference class forecasting</a> – Method of predicting the future</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-serving_bias" title="Self-serving bias">Self-serving bias</a> – Distortion to enhance self-esteem, or to see oneself overly favorably</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Toxic_positivity" title="Toxic positivity">Toxic positivity</a> – Construct in psychology</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wishful_thinking" title="Wishful thinking">Wishful thinking</a> – Formation of beliefs based on what might be pleasing to imagine</li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">List of cognitive biases</a> – Systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment</li></ul> </div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=23" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-Neural-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Neural_1-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Neural_1-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and 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class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-pm-reduced-optimism-bias-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-pm-reduced-optimism-bias_2-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKuzmanovicRigouxVogeley2014" class="citation journal cs1">Kuzmanovic, B.; Rigoux, L.; Vogeley, K. 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title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Autism+and+Developmental+Disorders&rft.atitle=Brief+Report%3A+Reduced+Optimism+Bias+in+Self-Referential+Belief+Updating+in+High-Functioning+Autism&rft.volume=49&rft.issue=7&rft.pages=2990-2998&rft.date=2014-01-14&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A254571982%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F27757736&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1007%2Fs10803-016-2940-0&rft.aulast=Kuzmanovic&rft.aufirst=B.&rft.au=Rigoux%2C+L.&rft.au=Vogeley%2C+K.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fpubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2F27757736%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOptimism+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:1-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:1_3-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:1_3-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" 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href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-6"><sup><i><b>g</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-7"><sup><i><b>h</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-8"><sup><i><b>i</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-9"><sup><i><b>j</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-10"><sup><i><b>k</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-11"><sup><i><b>l</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-12"><sup><i><b>m</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-13"><sup><i><b>n</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-14"><sup><i><b>o</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-15"><sup><i><b>p</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-16"><sup><i><b>q</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-17"><sup><i><b>r</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-18"><sup><i><b>s</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-shepperd2002_4-19"><sup><i><b>t</b></i></sup></a> <a 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Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 321–344. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Foxfordhb%2F9780199563142.003.0014">10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199563142.003.0014</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-19956314-2" title="Special:BookSources/978-0-19956314-2"><bdi>978-0-19956314-2</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=bookitem&rft.atitle=Over+Budget%2C+Over+Time%2C+Over+and+Over+Again%3A+Managing+Major+Projects&rft.btitle=The+Oxford+Handbook+of+Project+Management&rft.place=Oxford&rft.pages=321-344&rft.pub=Oxford+University+Press&rft.date=2011&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1093%2Foxfordhb%2F9780199563142.003.0014&rft.isbn=978-0-19956314-2&rft.aulast=Flyvbjerg&rft.aufirst=Bent&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOptimism+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-25"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-25">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGoldSousa2012" class="citation journal cs1">Gold, Ron S.; Sousa, Phillip N. de (2012). "When does event valence affect unrealistic optimism?". <i>Psychology, Health & Medicine</i>. <b>17</b> (1): 105–115. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1080%2F13548506.2011.582503">10.1080/13548506.2011.582503</a>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21745029">21745029</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:38200574">38200574</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Psychology%2C+Health+%26+Medicine&rft.atitle=When+does+event+valence+affect+unrealistic+optimism%3F&rft.volume=17&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=105-115&rft.date=2012&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A38200574%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F21745029&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1080%2F13548506.2011.582503&rft.aulast=Gold&rft.aufirst=Ron+S.&rft.au=Sousa%2C+Phillip+N.+de&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOptimism+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-26"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-26">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGoldMartyn2016" class="citation journal cs1">Gold, Ron S.; Martyn, Kate (6 December 2016). 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Berlin/Boston: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. p. 81. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-3110565799" title="Special:BookSources/978-3110565799"><bdi>978-3110565799</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Ontology+of+Theistic+Beliefs&rft.place=Berlin%2FBoston&rft.pages=81&rft.pub=Walter+de+Gruyter+GmbH+%26+Co+KG&rft.date=2018&rft.isbn=978-3110565799&rft.aulast=Szatkowski&rft.aufirst=Miros%C5%82aw&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOptimism+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:0-28"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:0_28-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:0_28-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFHardyMatson2004" class="citation book cs1">Hardy, Mitch; Matson, Bill (2004). <i>Data Driven Investing: Professional Edition</i>. 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Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/3_J_Personality_Social_Psychology_38_(Rosenhan).pdf">the original</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> on 2016-05-24.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+Personality+and+Social+Psychology&rft.atitle=Affect+and+expectation&rft.volume=3&rft.issue=1&rft.pages=38-44&rft.date=1966&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1037%2Fh0022633&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F5902075&rft.aulast=Rosenhan&rft.aufirst=David&rft.au=Messick%2C+Samuel&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fweb.mit.edu%2Fcurhan%2Fwww%2Fdocs%2FArticles%2Fbiases%2F3_J_Personality_Social_Psychology_38_%28Rosenhan%29.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOptimism+bias" class="Z3988"></span></li> <li>Taylor, Nigel (2000). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://sias.org.uk/media/1187/making-actuaries-less-human-lessons-from-behavioural-finance.pdf">Making Actuaries Less Human</a>. Staple Inn Actuarial Society, 15. <i>For picking a card see section 6.2 on page 15.</i></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Further_reading">Further reading</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=25" title="Edit section: Further reading"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFGoldBrown2009" class="citation journal cs1">Gold, Ron S.; Brown, Mark G. (2009). "Explaining the effect of event valence on unrealistic optimism". <i>Psychology, Health & Medicine</i>. <b>14</b> (3): 262–272. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1080%2F13548500802241910">10.1080/13548500802241910</a>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19444704">19444704</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:27425683">27425683</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Psychology%2C+Health+%26+Medicine&rft.atitle=Explaining+the+effect+of+event+valence+on+unrealistic+optimism&rft.volume=14&rft.issue=3&rft.pages=262-272&rft.date=2009&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A27425683%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F19444704&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1080%2F13548500802241910&rft.aulast=Gold&rft.aufirst=Ron+S.&rft.au=Brown%2C+Mark+G.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3AOptimism+bias" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Optimism_bias&action=edit&section=26" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.ted.com/talks/tali_sharot_the_optimism_bias.html">"Tali Sharot: The optimism bias"</a>, Tali Sharot's talk at TED.com</li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist li{margin:0;display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist.inline ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist dl ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol ul,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul ul{display:inline}.mw-parser-output .hlist .mw-empty-li{display:none}.mw-parser-output .hlist dt::after{content:": "}.mw-parser-output .hlist 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.1em 0;"><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias" title="Cognitive bias">Cognitive biases</a></div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Acquiescence_bias" title="Acquiescence bias">Acquiescence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ambiguity_effect" title="Ambiguity effect">Ambiguity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Affinity_bias" title="Affinity bias">Affinity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anchoring_(cognitive_bias)" class="mw-redirect" title="Anchoring (cognitive bias)">Anchoring</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attentional_bias" title="Attentional bias">Attentional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribution_bias" title="Attribution bias">Attribution</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Actor%E2%80%93observer_asymmetry" title="Actor–observer asymmetry">Actor–observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error" title="Fundamental attribution error">Correspondence</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Authority_bias" title="Authority bias">Authority</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Automation_bias" title="Automation bias">Automation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Availability_heuristic" title="Availability heuristic">Availability</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Belief_bias" title="Belief bias">Belief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_blind_spot" title="Bias blind spot">Blind spot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias" title="Choice-supportive bias">Choice-supportive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment" title="Escalation of commitment">Commitment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Confirmation_bias" title="Confirmation bias">Confirmation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Selective_perception" title="Selective perception">Selective perception</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Compassion_fade" title="Compassion fade">Compassion fade</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Congruence_bias" title="Congruence bias">Congruence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cultural_bias" title="Cultural bias">Cultural</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Declinism" title="Declinism">Declinism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Distinction_bias" title="Distinction bias">Distinction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" title="Dunning–Kruger effect">Dunning–Kruger</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Egocentric_bias" title="Egocentric bias">Egocentric</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge" title="Curse of knowledge">Curse of knowledge</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Emotional_bias" title="Emotional bias">Emotional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extrinsic_incentives_bias" title="Extrinsic incentives bias">Extrinsic incentives</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fading_affect_bias" title="Fading affect bias">Fading affect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)" title="Framing effect (psychology)">Framing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frequency_illusion" title="Frequency illusion">Frequency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frog_pond_effect" title="Frog pond effect">Frog pond effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Halo_effect" title="Halo effect">Halo effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias">Hindsight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Horn_effect" title="Horn effect">Horn effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hostile_attribution_bias" title="Hostile attribution bias">Hostile attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Impact_bias" title="Impact bias">Impact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Implicit_stereotype" title="Implicit stereotype">Implicit</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/In-group_favoritism" title="In-group favoritism">In-group</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intentionality_bias" title="Intentionality bias">Intentionality</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illusion_of_transparency" title="Illusion of transparency">Illusion of transparency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world syndrome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect" title="Mere-exposure effect">Mere-exposure effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Narrative_bias" title="Narrative bias">Narrative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Negativity_bias" title="Negativity bias">Negativity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Normalcy_bias" title="Normalcy bias">Normalcy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omission_bias" title="Omission bias">Omission</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Optimism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Out-group_homogeneity" title="Out-group homogeneity">Out-group homogeneity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Outcome_bias" title="Outcome bias">Outcome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overton_window" title="Overton window">Overton window</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Precision_bias" title="Precision bias">Precision</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Present_bias" title="Present bias">Present</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pro-innovation_bias" title="Pro-innovation bias">Pro-innovation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proximity_bias" title="Proximity bias">Proximity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Response_bias" title="Response bias">Response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Restraint_bias" title="Restraint bias">Restraint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-serving_bias" title="Self-serving bias">Self-serving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_comparison_bias" title="Social comparison bias">Social comparison</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_influence_bias" title="Social influence bias">Social influence bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spotlight_effect" title="Spotlight effect">Spotlight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Status_quo_bias" title="Status quo bias">Status quo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribute_substitution" title="Attribute substitution">Substitution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Time-saving_bias" title="Time-saving bias">Time-saving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Trait_ascription_bias" title="Trait ascription bias">Trait ascription</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Turkey_illusion" title="Turkey illusion">Turkey illusion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Von_Restorff_effect" title="Von Restorff effect">von Restorff effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Zero-risk_bias" title="Zero-risk bias">Zero-risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_in_animals" title="Cognitive bias in animals">In animals</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Bias_(statistics)" title="Bias (statistics)">Statistical biases</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bias_of_an_estimator" title="Bias of an estimator">Estimator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forecast_bias" title="Forecast bias">Forecast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Healthy_user_bias" title="Healthy user bias">Healthy user</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(epidemiology)" title="Information bias (epidemiology)">Information</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(psychology)" title="Information bias (psychology)">Psychological</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lead_time_bias" title="Lead time bias">Lead time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Length_time_bias" title="Length time bias">Length time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Non-response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Observer_bias" title="Observer bias">Observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omitted-variable_bias" title="Omitted-variable bias">Omitted-variable</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Participation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recall_bias" title="Recall bias">Recall</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sampling_bias" title="Sampling bias">Sampling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Selection_bias" title="Selection bias">Selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-selection_bias" title="Self-selection bias">Self-selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social-desirability_bias" title="Social-desirability bias">Social desirability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spectrum_bias" title="Spectrum bias">Spectrum</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Survivorship_bias" title="Survivorship bias">Survivorship</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systematic_error" class="mw-redirect" title="Systematic error">Systematic error</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systemic_bias" title="Systemic bias">Systemic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Verification_bias" title="Verification bias">Verification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wet_bias" title="Wet bias">Wet</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Other biases</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Academic_bias" title="Academic bias">Academic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Basking_in_reflected_glory" title="Basking in reflected glory">Basking in reflected glory</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/D%C3%A9formation_professionnelle" title="Déformation professionnelle">Déformation professionnelle</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Funding_bias" title="Funding bias">Funding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/FUTON_bias" class="mw-redirect" title="FUTON bias">FUTON</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inductive_bias" title="Inductive bias">Inductive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Infrastructure_bias" title="Infrastructure bias">Infrastructure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inherent_bias" title="Inherent bias">Inherent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_in_education" class="mw-redirect" title="Bias in education">In education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Liking_gap" title="Liking gap">Liking gap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias" title="Media bias">Media</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/False_balance" title="False balance">False balance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_States_news_media_and_the_Vietnam_War" title="United States news media and the Vietnam War">Vietnam War</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_of_Norway" class="mw-redirect" title="Media of Norway">Norway</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_South_Asia" title="Media bias in South Asia">South Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_of_Sweden" class="mw-redirect" title="Media of Sweden">Sweden</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_the_United_States" title="Media bias in the United States">United States</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_the_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_conflict" class="mw-redirect" title="Media coverage of the Arab–Israeli conflict">Arab–Israeli conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_portrayal_of_the_Ukrainian_crisis" class="mw-redirect" title="Media portrayal of the Ukrainian crisis">Ukraine</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_bias" title="Net bias">Net</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_bias" title="Political bias">Political bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Publication_bias" title="Publication bias">Publication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reporting_bias" title="Reporting bias">Reporting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/White_hat_bias" title="White hat bias">White hat</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Bias reduction</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_mitigation" title="Cognitive bias mitigation">Cognitive bias mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Debiasing" title="Debiasing">Debiasing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heuristic_(psychology)" title="Heuristic (psychology)">Heuristics in judgment and decision-making</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow hlist" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li>Lists: <a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">General</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Memory_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">Memory</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>    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