陶冬_誉世翱翔_新浪博客

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "//www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> <html xmlns="//www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> <head> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" /> <title>陶冬_誉世翱翔_新浪博客</title> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=EmulateIE8,chrome=1" /> <meta name="renderer" content="webkit"> <meta name="keywords" content="陶冬_誉世翱翔_新浪博客,陶冬_誉世翱翔,联储政策,jacksonhole,英国经济,英国房地产,通货膨胀,联储加息,美元汇率,汽油价格,非农就业,联储政策,英国加息,欧洲经济,美元汇率,债务危机,新兴市场,美国经济,利率政策,欧洲gdp,消费信心,经济衰退,联储政策,欧洲央行,美元汇率,意大利政局,德拉吉辞职,能源危机,欧盟权利真空,美国通胀,衰退交易,欧元贬值,意大利政局,利率倒挂,衰退交易,欧元汇率,经济衰退,美国经济,衰退交易,收益曲线倒挂,联储" /> <meta name="description" content="陶冬_誉世翱翔_新浪博客,陶冬_誉世翱翔,英国通胀破顶｜联储年会登场,美通胀见顶｜各货币升值,美就业爆棚｜英央行升息,美元持续走强,新兴市场麻烦来了,美国加息变调｜全球消费降级,欧央行进取加息｜美联储探索拐点,意大利政局冲击欧元、欧债,通胀又创新高｜欧元再探平价,利率倒挂欧元急跌,衰退交易充斥市场" /> <meta content="always" name="referrer"> <meta http-equiv="mobile-agent" content="format=html5; url=//blog.sina.cn/dpool/blog/u/1182426800"> <meta http-equiv="mobile-agent" content="format=wml; url=//blog.sina.cn/dpool/blog/ArtList.php?uid=1182426800&vt=1"> <!–[if lte IE 6]> <script type="text/javascript"> try{ document.execCommand("BackgroundImageCache", false, true); }catch(e){} </script> <![endif]–> <script type="text/javascript"> window.staticTime=new Date().getTime(); ;(function () { if(/\/{2,}/.test(location.pathname)){ location.href = '//blog.sina.com.cn' + location.pathname.replace(/\/+/g,'/') + location.search; } })(); </script> <link rel="pingback" href="//upload.move.blog.sina.com.cn/blog_rebuild/blog/xmlrpc.php" /> <link rel="EditURI" type="application/rsd+xml" title="RSD" href="//upload.move.blog.sina.com.cn/blog_rebuild/blog/xmlrpc.php?rsd" /> <link href="//blog.sina.com.cn/blog_rebuild/blog/wlwmanifest.xml" type="application/wlwmanifest+xml" rel="wlwmanifest" /> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/rss/1182426800.xml" title="RSS" /> <link href="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/css/conf/blog/index.css" type="text/css" rel="stylesheet" /><style id="tplstyle" type="text/css">@charset "utf-8";@import url("//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7newtpl/css/30/30_1/t.css"); </style> <style id="positionstyle" type="text/css"> </style> <style id="bgtyle" type="text/css"> </style> <style id="headtyle" type="text/css"> </style> <style id="navtyle" type="text/css"> </style> <link href="//mjs.sinaimg.cn//wap/project/blog_upload/1.0.6/index_v3/static/css/index_v3.min.css" type="text/css" rel="stylesheet" /> <script type="text/javascript" src="//mjs.sinaimg.cn//wap/project/blog_upload/1.0.7/index_v3/static/js/index_v3.min.js"></script> <style> .popup_blogUpdata{ z-index:1200 } .fl_bg{ z-index:1100; } .articleCell .atc_main{ width:340px!important; } </style> </head> <body>  <div style="z-index:512;" class="nsinatopbar"> <div style="position:absolute;left:0;top:0;" id="trayFlashConnetion"></div> <div class="ntopbar_main"> <a id="login_bar_logo_link_350" href="//blog.sina.com.cn" target="_blank"><img class="ntopbar_logo" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/topbar/topbar_logo.gif" width="100" alt="新浪博客"></a> <div class="ntopbar_floatL"> <div class="ntopbar_search" id="traySearchBar" style="display:none;"></div> <div class="ntopbar_ad" id="loginBarActivity" style="display:none;"></div> </div> <div class="ntopbar_loading"><img src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/loading.gif">加载中…</div> </div> </div>  <div class="sinabloga" id="sinabloga"> <div id="sinablogb" class="sinablogb"> <div id="sinablogHead" class="sinabloghead"> <div style="display: none;" id="headflash" class="headflash"></div> <div id="headarea" class="headarea"> <div id="blogTitle" class="blogtoparea">   <div id="bloglink" class="bloglink"><a href="http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1182426800">http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1182426800</a> </div> </div> <div class="blognav" id="blognav"> <div id="blognavBg" class="blognavBg"></div> <div class="blognavInfo"> <span><a class="on" href="http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1182426800">首页</a></span> <span><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_0_1.html">博文目录</a></span>  <span class="last"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/profile_1182426800.html">关于我</a></span></div> </div> <div class="autoskin" id="auto_skin"> </div> <div class="adsarea"> <a href="#"><div id="template_clone_pic" class="pic"></div></a> <div id="template_clone_link" class="link wdc_HInf"></div> <div id="template_clone_other" class="other"></div> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="sinablogbody" id="sinablogbody">  <div id="column_1" class="SG_colW21 SG_colFirst"><style> #module_901 { visibility: hidden; } </style> <div class="SG_conn" id="module_901"> <div class="SG_connHead"> <span class="title" comp_title="个人资料">个人资料</span> <span class="edit"> </span> </div> <div class="SG_connBody"> <div class="info"> <div class="info_img" id="comp_901_head"><img src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src ="http://p1.sinaimg.cn/1182426800/180/1" id="comp_901_head_image" width="180" height="180" alt="陶冬_誉世翱翔" title="陶冬_誉世翱翔" /></div> <div class="info_txt"> <div class="info_nm"> <img id="comp_901_online_icon" style="display:none;" class="SG_icon SG_icon1" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle" /> <span class="SG_txtb"><strong id="ownernick">陶冬_誉世翱翔 <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/v/verify" target="_blank"><img class="SG_icon SG_icon146" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" title="新浪个人认证" alt="新浪个人认证" align="absmiddle" /></a> </strong></span> <div class="clearit"></div> </div> <div class="info_btn1"> <a target="_blank" href="//weibo.com/u/1182426800?source=blog" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon51" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle" />微博</cite></a> <div class="clearit"></div> </div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="info_locate" id = "info_locate_id"> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="info_btn2"> <p> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="SG_aBtn " id="comp901_btn_invite"><cite >加好友</cite></a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" class="SG_aBtn" id="comp901_btn_sendpaper"><cite >发纸条</cite></a> </p> <p> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/profile_1182426800.html#write" class="SG_aBtn" id="comp901_btn_msninfo"><cite>写留言</cite></a> <a href="#" onclick="return false;" class="SG_aBtn" id="comp901_btn_follow"><cite onclick="Module.SeeState.add()">加关注</cite></a> </p> <div class="clearit"></div> </div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> </div> <div class="info_list"> <ul class="info_list1"> <li><span class="SG_txtc">博客等级：</span><span id="comp_901_grade"><img src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/number/1.gif" /><img src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" real_src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/number/3.gif" /></span></li> <li><span class="SG_txtc">博客积分：</span><span id="comp_901_score"><strong>0</strong></span></li> </ul> <ul class="info_list2"> <li><span class="SG_txtc">博客访问：</span><span id="comp_901_pv"><strong>37,609</strong></span></li> <li><span class="SG_txtc">关注人气：</span><span id="comp_901_attention"><strong>22,066</strong></span></li> <li><span class="SG_txtc">获赠金笔：</span><strong id="comp_901_d_goldpen">0支</strong></li> <li><span class="SG_txtc">赠出金笔：</span><strong id="comp_901_r_goldpen">0支</strong></li> <li class="lisp" id="comp_901_badge"><span class="SG_txtc">荣誉徽章：</span></li> </ul> </div> <div class="clearit"></div> </div> <div class="clearit"></div> </div> </div> <div class="SG_connFoot"></div> </div> </div>   <div id="column_2" class="SG_colW73"><div id="module_10001" class="SG_conn"> <div class="SG_connHead"> <span comp_title="博文" class="title">博文</span> <span class="edit"> </span> </div> <div class="SG_connBody"> <div class="bloglist"> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6t9" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6t9.html" target="_blank">英国通胀破顶｜联储年会登场</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-08-20 23:01)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6t9'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>联储政策</h3>  <h3>jacksonhole</h3>  <h3>英国经济</h3>  <h3>英国房地产</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>市场等待本周末在</span><span style='font-family:'>Jackson Hole</span><span style= 'font-family:'>召开的联储年会，寻求未来的政策方向。美国七月通胀数据出来后，市场曾经有过一阵冲动，期待利率很快见顶，甚至回落。联储高官不得不连番出阵，对资金实施预期管理，市场对联储很快停止加息的希望值降低了。</span></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' helvetica='' min-height:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><br /></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang=''><font style='font-size: 16px;'>七月份<span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>FOMC</span>会议纪要中的口吻比市场想象的更强硬一些，资金在上周调整了心态，债市股市回调，美元再上高位，欧元日元英镑下挫。美国二手房销售连续第</font></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6t9" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6t9.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6t9" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6t9.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6t9"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6t1" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6t1.html" target="_blank">美通胀见顶｜各货币升值</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-08-13 21:54)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6t1'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>通货膨胀</h3>  <h3>联储加息</h3>  <h3>美元汇率</h3>  <h3>汽油价格</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>美国的通胀数据又让市场心猿意马了一番，资金欢呼通胀见顶，市场下调对联储加息的预期，上周股债油金尽升，美元回落。市场的乐观情绪连联储也看不下去，派出几位联储高官来为市场激情降温，国债市场稍稍镇定，不过市场的通胀焦虑确实得到了缓解。英国经济在第二季度收缩</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>0.1%</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>，是疫情封锁以来的第一次负增长。美国众议院通过了削减通胀法案，预计拜登很快签署，这将成为罗斯福时代以来最大的专项公共开支，预计为环境保护和清洁能源领域带来很大的投资。中国的社会融资规模不如预期。美国通胀焦</span><span style='font-family:'>虑下降，</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>VIX</span><span style='font-family:'>跌破</span></font></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6t1" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6t1.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6t1" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6t1.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6t1"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6sw" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sw.html" target="_blank">美就业爆棚｜英央行升息</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-08-06 21:16)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6sw'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>非农就业</h3>  <h3>联储政策</h3>  <h3>英国加息</h3>  <h3>欧洲经济</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>非常强劲的非农就业数据打破了经月的通胀交易和衰退交易之争，通货膨胀再次成为资金的焦虑点，美债再此遭遇抛售。上周对于风险资产市场，可谓一波三折。早段联储高官布拉德称收缩政策还会持续很久，联储加息会</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>“</span><span style='font-family:'>更高、更久</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>”</span><span style='font-family:'>。中段英格兰银行加息，暗示衰退已经不远了，最后非农就业就业数据则显示经济过热并没有消退，就业市场一片火热。全球债市的情绪在通胀和衰退两股势力中间大幅摇摆，股市表现也很起伏，不过美股盈利良好，走势相对稳定。石油价格成为需求衰退担忧的主要牺牲者，布伦特原油价格跌破</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>95</span></font></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6sw" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sw.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6sw" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sw.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6sw"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6st" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6st.html" target="_blank">美元持续走强,新兴市场麻烦来了</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-08-03 12:48)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6st'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>美元汇率</h3>  <h3>债务危机</h3>  <h3>新兴市场</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang=''><span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-size: 14px;'> <wbr>  <wbr> 美元汇率暴涨。从</span><span style= 'font-family:'>2021</span><span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-size: 14px;'>年初到现在，美元汇率</span><span style='font-family:'>DXY</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-size: 14px;'>升值了</span><span style='font-family:'>20%</span><span style='font-family:'>，攀上了二十年的高位。俄乌冲突以来，这个趋势更在加速，欧元、日元等都创下了几个周期以来的汇率新低。</span><br /> </p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family:' helvetica='' min-height:=''><br /></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 11px; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang=''><span style= 'font-size: 14px;'> <wbr> <wbr> <wbr> <wbr>美元走强有几个原因。首先，美国经济出</span></p> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6st" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6st.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6st" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6st.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6st"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6sq" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sq.html" target="_blank">美国加息变调｜全球消费降级</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-07-30 21:14)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6sq'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>美国经济</h3>  <h3>利率政策</h3>  <h3>欧洲gdp</h3>  <h3>消费信心</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>充满对比和困惑的一周，但是资本市场狂欢了。联储再度大码加息</span><span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica;'>75</span><span style='font-family:'>点，不过鲍威尔却暗示可能改变加息政策的力度。美国</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica;'>GDP</span><span style='font-family:'>出现了负增长，弱过预期，却感受不到衰退的气息；欧洲增长是正的，好过预期，却处处可以嗅到衰退的味道。美股盈利多数好过预期；消费类公司却先后发出盈利警告。</span></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Helvetica; min-height: 14px;'> <font style='font-size: 16px;'><br /></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang=''> <wbr></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6sq" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sq.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6sq" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sq.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6sq"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6sl" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sl.html" target="_blank">欧央行进取加息｜美联储探索拐点</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-07-23 21:10)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6sl'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>经济衰退</h3>  <h3>联储政策</h3>  <h3>欧洲央行</h3>  <h3>美元汇率</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>上周五，市场的衰退警觉陡然升级。</span><span style= 'font-family:'>S&P</span><span style= 'font-family:'>全球</span><span style= 'font-family:'>PMI</span><span style= 'font-family:'>从六月的</span><span style= 'font-family:'>52.3</span><span style= 'font-family:'>骤降到七月的</span><span style= 'font-family:'>47.5</span><span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>，全球性经济衰退的警号响起。其中美国的服务业</span><span style='font-family:'>PMI</span><span style='font-family:'>和制造业生产</span><span style='font-family:'>PMI</span><span style='font-family:'>均跌到荣枯线之下，欧洲的制造业</span><span style='font-family:'>PMI</span><span style='font-family:'>也跌到荣枯线之下。受到消息的影响，资金再次调整加息预期，美欧债市大幅上扬，美股下挫。除此之外上周还出现了两大意外，</span></font></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6sl" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sl.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6sl" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sl.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6sl"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6sj" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sj.html" target="_blank">意大利政局冲击欧元、欧债</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-07-21 17:47)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6sj'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>意大利政局</h3>  <h3>德拉吉辞职</h3>  <h3>能源危机</h3>  <h3>欧盟权利真空</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>意大利总理德拉吉宣布辞职。在前晚举行的的议会信任投票上，右翼政党</span><span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Times;'>The League</span><span style='font-family:'>、中间偏右政党</span><span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Times;'>Forza Italia</span><span style='font-family:'>和民粹主义政党</span><span style= 'font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Times;'>Five Star Movement</span><span style= 'font-family:'>投了弃权票。德拉吉赢得了信任投票，但是失去了最重要的三大政党的支持。德拉吉的离去，对意大利的未来、欧洲央行的政策、欧元的走势以及欧洲债务前景都带来了很大的不确定性。</span></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family: Times; min-height: 14px;'> </p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6sj" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sj.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6sj" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sj.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6sj"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6sd" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sd.html" target="_blank">通胀又创新高｜欧元再探平价</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-07-16 22:08)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6sd'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>美国通胀</h3>  <h3>衰退交易</h3>  <h3>欧元贬值</h3>  <h3>意大利政局</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>类似的担心，类似的交易主题切换，类似的资产价格走势，上周市场在通胀和衰退的夹击中度过了新一轮动荡。美国通货膨胀远高过预期，数据甫出，市场担心联储直接加息一百点，全球债券同遭抛售。之后两位鹰派高管出来安抚资金，市场情绪稍稍喘定，债市回稳，不过十年期国债利率对两年期国债利率倒挂增加至</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>20</span><span style='font-family:'>点，继续指向经济衰退。股市则在一路下跌之后，星期五出现抄底资金，但是全周来看还是跌的。美元汇率继续走强，</span><span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>DXY</span><span style='font-family:'>指数曾经大升，不过最终回吐出多数斩获。</span></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' helvetica='' min-height:=''> <wbr></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6sd" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sd.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6sd" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6sd.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6sd"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6s8" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6s8.html" target="_blank">利率倒挂欧元急跌</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-07-09 22:24)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6s8'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>利率倒挂</h3>  <h3>衰退交易</h3>  <h3>欧元汇率</h3>  <h3>经济衰退</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> <span class="SG_txtb">分类：</span> <a target="_blank" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/articlelist_1182426800_2_1.html">看世界</a> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><span style= 'font-family:'>通胀兮通缩兮，上周消息相互对立，风险市场摇摆不定。六月非农就业数据指向通胀，国债收益率倒挂又预言衰退；美元汇率走势意味着通胀，石油市场疲弱则反映出衰退；</span><span style='font-family:'>FOMC</span><span style='font-family:'>会议纪坚持要加息整治通胀，利率期货市场却隐含着明年降息。这些都在上周同时发生，不过交易主题还是以通胀和联储加息为主，股市升、债市跌。十年期国债利率升回到</span><span style='font-family:'>3.08%</span><span style='font-family:'>，两年期</span><span style='font-family:'>3.1%</span><span style='font-family:'>，收益率曲线持续倒挂。纳斯达克则连升五日，写下去年</span><span style='font-family:'>11</span><span style='font-family:'>月以来最长的升市。</span></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' helvetica='' min-height:=''> <wbr></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6s8" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6s8.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6s8" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6s8.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6s8"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div class="blog_title_h"> <span class="img1"></span> <div id="t_10001_467a66b00102z6s4" class="blog_title"> <a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6s4.html" target="_blank">衰退交易充斥市场</a> </div> <span class="time SG_txtc">(2022-07-06 08:55)</span> <div class="turnBoxzz"><a href="javascript:;" class="SG_aBtn SG_aBtn_ico SG_turn" action-type="reblog" action-data="{srcBlog:1, blogId:'467a66b00102z6s4'}"><cite><img class="SG_icon SG_icon111" src="//simg.sinajs.cn/blog7style/images/common/sg_trans.gif" width="15" height="15" align="absmiddle">转载<em class="arrow">▼</em></cite></a></div>  </div> <div class="articalTag"> <table> <tr> <td class="blog_tag"> <span class="SG_txtb">标签：</span>  <h3>美国经济</h3>  <h3>衰退交易</h3>  <h3>收益曲线倒挂</h3>  <h3>联储</h3> </td> <td class="blog_class"> </td> </tr> </table> </div> <div class="content newfont_family"> <div style='text-indent:2em;'> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang='' text-indent:=''><span style='font-family:'><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'>在不到四周的时间里，全球市场的交易主题出现了彻底的扭转，从交易通胀转为交易衰退，国债收益率曲线倒挂。</font></span></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' helvetica='' min-height:=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'><br /></font></p> <p style= 'margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:' pingfang=''><font style= 'font-size: 16px;'>美国联储从一月开始，对遏制通胀的语调越来越强硬，至六月初主席鲍威尔摆出了不惜牺牲增长也要压制通胀的姿态，十年期国债利率从<span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>1.6%</span>升至<span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>3.5%</span>，市场一度预计<span style='font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; font-family:'>FOMC</span>今年累计加息</font></p> </div> </div> <div class="tagMore"> <div class="tag SG_txtc"> <a id="r_10001_467a66b00102z6s4" href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6s4.html" target="_blank">阅读</a>     <a id="f_10001_467a66b00102z6s4" href="javascript:;" onclick="return false;">收藏</a>  </div> <div class="more"> <span class="SG_more"><a href="//blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_467a66b00102z6s4.html" target="_blank">查看全文</a>>></span> </div> </div> <div style="display: none;" class="blogzz_zzlist borderc" id="ff_467a66b00102z6s4"></div> <div class="SG_j_linedot"></div> <div favmd5='{"467a66b00102z6t9":"542cd9709dc6bfccf9bc321e4b6167ee","467a66b00102z6t1":"d1fc1b32614a0e6c89b423f445d0e248","467a66b00102z6sw":"23ccb9ce132a84a96a0221e7e3ec21f1","467a66b00102z6st":"94fe91c588f79dad8dd2ef79cc354683","467a66b00102z6sq":"d4e18f373a7dd36971cd83b886ab0033","467a66b00102z6sl":"db7d3d59245a5782739b9df1753b0f55","467a66b00102z6sj":"c28ba08d5c7283d504516dd071af1b4e","467a66b00102z6sd":"578a8293cd9c23634fedc918ca383756","467a66b00102z6s8":"7275089e93a589ce79d95e93451b4472","467a66b00102z6s4":"96aeb9cfc052e82f3502c878cbdfd70d"}' classid="0" pagesize="10" total="1025" id="pagination_10001" class="SG_page"></div> </div> </div> <div class="SG_connFoot"></div> </div> </div>   <div id="column_3" class="SG_colWnone"><div style="width:0px;height:0.1px;margin:0px;">  </div></div>  </div>  <div id="diggerFla" style="position:absolute;left:0px;top:0px;width:0px"></div> <div class="sinablogfooter" id="sinablogfooter" style="position:relative;"> <p class="SG_linka"><a href="//help.sina.com.cn/" target="_blank">新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板</a>　欢迎批评指正</p> <p class="SG_linka"><a href="//corp.sina.com.cn/chn/" target="_blank">新浪简介</a> | <a href="//corp.sina.com.cn/eng/" target="_blank">About Sina</a> | <a href="//emarketing.sina.com.cn/" target="_blank">广告服务</a> | <a href="//www.sina.com.cn/contactus.html" target="_blank">联系我们</a> | <a href="//corp.sina.com.cn/chn/sina_job.html" target="_blank">招聘信息</a> | <a href="//www.sina.com.cn/intro/lawfirm.shtml" target="_blank">网站律师</a> | <a href="//english.sina.com" target="_blank">SINA English</a> | <a href="//help.sina.com.cn/" target="_blank">产品答疑</a> </p> <p class="copyright SG_linka"> Copyright © 1996 - 2022 SINA Corporation, All Rights Reserved</p> <p class="SG_linka"> 新浪公司 <a href="//www.sina.com.cn/intro/copyright.shtml" target="_blank">版权所有</a></p> <a href="//www.bj.cyberpolice.cn/index.jsp" target="_blank" class="gab_link"></a> </div> </div> </div> <div id="swfbox"></div> <script id="PVCOUNTER_FORIE" type="text/javascript"></script> </body> <script type="text/javascript"> var scope = { $newTray : 1, $setDomain : true, $uid : "1182426800", $PRODUCT_NAME : "blog7", //blog7photo,blog7icp $pageid : "index", $key : "5241b7f5990e0e887045b694f1a149f8", $uhost : "", $ownerWTtype :"0", $private: {"cms":0,"hidecms":0,"blogsize":0,"ad":0,"sms":0,"adver":0,"tj":1,"p4p":0,"pageset":0,"invitationset":0,"top":0,"spamcms":0,"active":"4","medal":4,"t_sina":"1182426800","oauth_token":"","oauth_token_secret":"","uname":"\u9676\u51ac","p_push_t":0,"p_get_t":0,"uid":"1182426800","medal7":7,"articleclass":"117","headpic":1}, $summary: "", $playids :"", $babylevel:"", $channel:0, $is_photo_vip:0, $nClass:0, $isLevelUp:0, component_lists:{"2":{"size":730,"list":[10001]},"1":{"size":210,"list":[901]}}, formatInfo:1, UserPic:[{"pid":null,"repeat":null,"align-h":null,"align-v":null,"apply":null},{"pid":null,"repeat":null,"align-h":null,"align-v":null,"apply":null},{"pid":null,"repeat":null,"align-h":null,"align-v":null,"apply":null}], UserBabyPic:{"photoX":0,"photoY":0,"photoURL":null,"angle":0,"zoom":0,"maskX":0,"maskY":0,"maskURL":null,"frameURL":null}, UserColor:"", backgroundcolor:"", $shareData:0, tpl:"30_1", reclist:0 }; var $encrypt_code = "1bf86b5e5b1b19c5eeecb0a83bdddfd0"; </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//sjs.sinajs.cn/blog7common/js/boot.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript">__load_js();</script> <script type="text/javascript">__render_page();</script>  <noScript> <div style='position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:0;height: 0;visibility:hidden'><img width=0 height=0 src='http://beacon.sina.com.cn/a.gif?noScript' border='0' alt='' /></div> </noScript>  <script type="text/javascript" src="//n.sinaimg.cn/blog/0977ce10/20220810/blog680-min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> var slotArr = ['atcTitLi_SLOT_41', 'atcTitLi_SLOT_42','loginBarActivity']; //广告位id var sourceArr = ['SLOT_41','SLOT_42','SLOT_43,SLOT_47,SLOT_48']; //广告资源id SinaBlog680.staticBox(slotArr, sourceArr); </script> </html>

CINXE.COM

陶冬_誉世翱翔_新浪博客