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Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page

<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> <html> <head> <title>Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page</title> <meta name="DC.title" content="Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.description" content="Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.subject" content="Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.creator" content="NOAA's National Weather Service"> <meta name="DC.date.created" scheme="ISO8601" content="2002-01-01"> <meta name="DC.date.reviewed" scheme="ISO8601" content="2005-12-12"> <meta name="DC.language" scheme="DCTERMS.RFC1766" content="EN-US"> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <!-- <meta http-equiv="refresh" content="0; URL='http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php'"> --> <meta content="NCEP Web Team" name="GENERATOR"> <!-- <meta http-equiv="refresh" content="300"> --> <link href="nwscwi/main.css" type="text/css" rel="STYLESHEET"> <link rel="icon" href="/favicon.ico"> <link rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" title="WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions" href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/mdrss.xml" /> <style type="text/css"> body { margin: 0px; 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</script> <title>Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page</title> <meta name="DC.title" content="Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.description" content="Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.subject" content="Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) Home Page"> <meta name="DC.creator" content="NOAA's National Weather Service"> <meta name="DC.date.created" scheme="ISO8601" content="2002-01-01"> <meta name="DC.date.reviewed" scheme="ISO8601" content="2005-12-12"> <meta name="DC.language" scheme="DCTERMS.RFC1766" content="EN-US"> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <meta content="NCEP Web Team" name="GENERATOR"> <!-- <meta http-equiv="refresh" content="600"> --> <link href="nwscwi/main.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="para/para_css/WPC.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <link href="para/para_css/pulldown.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" /> <script type="text/javascript" language="javascript" src="para/para_javascript/options_newgudes.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" async="true" id="_fed_an_ua_tag" src="https://dap.digitalgov.gov/Universal-Federated-Analytics-Min.js?agency=DOC&subagency=WPC&pua=ua-86992316-1"></script> </head> <body onload="resetoptions()"> <!--top header--> <!--top header--> <h1> <div class="header"> <div class="header-content"> <a href="http://www.noaa.gov" title="Explore other NOAA products" class="header-noaa-icon"><img src="/para/para_css/images/header-noaa.png" alt="NOAA" /></a> <a href="http://www.weather.gov" title="Access to the latest watches and warnings" class="header-nws-icon"><img src="/para/para_css/images/header-nws.png" alt="NWS" /></a> <a href="http://www.commerce.gov" title="Learn about the Department of Commerce" class="header-doc"><img src="/para/para_css/images/header_doc.png" alt="DOC" /></a> <a href="#contents"><img height="1" src="/para/para_css/images/skipgraphic.gif" alt="Skip Naviagation Links" width="1" border="0"></a> <div class="header-center-text"><a class="header-center-text" href="/index.php">Weather Prediction Center</a></div> <div class="header-noaa-text"><a class="header-noaa-text" href="http://www.noaa.gov">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="header-shadow"><div class="header-shadow-content"></div></div> </h1> <!--NCEP and Local Forecast Links--> <!--NCEP, Social Media, and Local Forecast--> <div class="ncep-menu-content"> <div class="ncep-links"> <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ncep/" title="National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)'s website" target="_blank">NCEP</a>: <a href="https://www.aviationweather.gov/" title="Aviation Weather Center's website" target="_blank">AWC</a>&nbsp;&#183; 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Trying to get it to sync by changing the --> <!--top navigation--> <!--top navigation--> <div class="topnav"> <ul id="topnav"> <li> <div class="left-section-link"> <a href="/index.shtml">Home </a> </div> <!-- <div class="drop"> <ul> <li><a href="/index.shtml">WPC</a></li> <li><a href="/index_legacy.shtml">WPC (Legacy)</a></li> </ul> </div> --> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link"> <a href="#">Forecasts & Analyses &#x25BC;</a> </div> <div class="drop"> <ul> <li><a href="/dwm/dwm.shtml">Daily Weather Map</a></li> <li><a href="/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php">Day &#189;&ndash;2&#189;</a></li> <li><a href="/medr/medr.shtml">Day 3&ndash;7 CONUS</a></li> <li><a href="/threats/threats.php">Day 3&ndash;7 Hazards</a></li> <li><a href="/alaska/akmedr.shtml">Day 4&ndash;8 Alaska</a></li> <li><a href="/qpf/excess_rain.shtml">Excessive Rainfall</a></li> <li><a href="/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html">Flood Outlook</a></li> <li><a href="/kml/kmlproducts.php">GIS Products</a></li> <li><a href="/heat_index.shtml">Heat Index</a></li> <li><a href="/metwatch/metwatch_mpd.php">Mesoscale Precip Discussion</a></li> <li><a href="/national_forecast/natfcst.php?day=1">National Forecast Charts</a></li> <li><a href="/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=nathilo&version=0&fmt=reg">National High &#38; Low</a></li> <li><a href="/pqpf/conus_hpc_pqpf.php">PQPF</a></li> <li><a href="/qpf/qpf2.shtml">QPF</a></li> <li><a href="/storm_summaries/storm_summaries.shtml">Storm Summaries</a></li> <li><a href="/html/sfc2.shtml">Surface Analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/tropical/tropstorms.shtml">Tropical Products</a></li> <li><a href="/wwd/winter_wx.shtml">Winter Weather</a></li> <li><a href="/html/discuss.shtml">WPC Discussions</a></li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link"> <a href="#">Archives &#x25BC;</a> </div> <div class="drop"> <ul> <li><a href="/dailywxmap/index.html">Daily Weather Maps</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/web_pages/medr/get_medr_products.php">Day 3-7</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/web_pages/ero/ero.shtml">Excessive Rainfall Outlooks</a></li> <li><a href="/qpf/eroclimo/index.php">Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/metwatch/mpd_archive_days.php">Mesoscale Precip Discussions</a></li> <li><a href="/noaa/noaa_archive.php">National Forecast Charts</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/web_pages/discussions/archive_nathilo.php">National High &#38; Low</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/qpf/get_qpf_images.php">QPF</a></li> <li><a href="/storm_summaries/storm_summaries.shtml">Storm Summaries</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive.php">Surface Analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/tropical/tropstorms.shtml">Tropical Advisories</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/web_pages/winwx/get_winwx_images.php">Winter Weather</a></li> <li><a href="/archives/web_pages/wpc_arch/get_wpc_archives.php">WPC Archive Page</a></li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link"> <a href="#">Verification &#x25BC;</a> </div> <div class="drop"> <ul> <li><a href="/html/hpcverif.shtml#medmin">Day 3&ndash;7</a></li> <li><a href="/storm_summaries/event_reviews.php">Event Reviews</a></li> <li><a href="/html/model2.shtml">Model Diagnostics</a></li> <li><a href="/html/hpcverif.shtml#qpf">QPF</a></li> <li><a href="/verification/winwx/winwx.php">Winter Weather</a></li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link"> <a href="#">International &#x25BC;</a> </div> <div class="drop"> <ul> <li><a href="/international/intl2.shtml">Desks</a></li> <li><a href="/international/gdi/">GDI</a></li> <li><a href="/international/wng/">Desk Forecasting Tools</a></li> <li><a href="/qpf/pr_qpf24.php">Puerto Rico QPF</a></li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link"> <a href="#">Development &#x25BC;</a> </div> <div class="drop"> <ul> <li><a href="/hmt/">HydroMet Testbed</a></li> <li><a href="/research/res2.shtml">Training</a></li> <li><a href="/html/wpc_publications.shtml">Publications</a></li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link"> <a href="#">About &#x25BC;</a> </div> <div class="drop"> <ul> <li><a href="/html/about2.shtml">About the WPC</a></li> <li><a href="/html/faq.shtml">FAQ</a></li> <li><a href="/html/WPC_history.pdf">History</a></li> <li><a href="/html/fcst2.shtml">Mission&#38;Vision</a></li> <li><a href="/html/fam2.shtml">Product Description</a></li> <!-- <li><a href="/staff/wpc_staff.shtml">Staff</a></li> --> <li><a href="/para/para_includes/WPC_Student_Opportunities.pdf">Student Opportunities</a></li> </ul> </div> </li> <li> <div class="center-section-link"> <!-- link to noaa/nws website search --> <a href="https://www.weather.gov/search">Search</a> </div> <div class="dropsearch"> <div class="site-search"> <form method="get" action="https://search.usa.gov/search" style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0;"> <input type="hidden" name="v:project" value="firstgov" /> <label for="query">Search For</label> <input type="text" name="query" id="query" size="12" /> <input type="submit" value="Go" /> <p> <input type="radio" name="affiliate" checked="checked" value="nws.noaa.gov" id="nws" /> <label for="nws" class="search-scope">NWS</label> <input type="radio" name="affiliate" value="noaa.gov" id="noaa" /> <label for="noaa" class="search-scope">All NOAA</label> </p> </form> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> <!--notice of non-operational website--> <!-- Hazards Table --> <!--hazards table--> <div id="hazards" class="haz-content"> <a name="contents"></a> <div class="haz-border"> <div class="haz-wrn"> <a href='http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/' title='Weather Ready Nation'><img class='haz-wrn-logo' src='/para/css/images/WRN_emblem_small.png' alt='Weather Ready Nation' /></a> </div> <div class="haz-one"> <table class="haz-one-table" summary="table that displays the WPC Hazards (Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3) for Excessive Rainfall, Heavy Snow, and Freezing Rain"> <thead> <tr> <th id='hz-hazards'>Hazard</th> <th id='hz-dayone'>Feb 25</th><th id='hz-daytwo'>Feb 26</th><th id='hz-daythree'>Feb 27</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr class="odd"> <td headers='hz-hazards'>Excessive Rainfall</td> <td headers='hz-dayone' title='There are No Risk Areas of Excessive Rainfall on Day 1' class='threats'><a href='/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td><td headers='hz-daytwo' title='There are No Risk Areas of Excessive Rainfall on Day 2' class='threats'><a href='/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td><td headers='hz-daythree' title='There are No Risk Areas of Excessive Rainfall on Day 3' class='threats'><a href='/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=3' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td> </tr> <tr><td headers='hz-hazards'>Heavy Snow (&#8805; 4&#8221;)</td><td headers='hz-dayone' title='There is a High Risk of Snow Accumulations &#8805; 4&#8221; on Day 1' class='high'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>High</a></td><td headers='hz-daytwo' title='There are No Risk Areas of Snow Accumulations &#8805; 4&#8221; on Day 2' class='threats'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td><td headers='hz-daythree' title='There is a High Risk of Snow Accumulations &#8805; 4&#8221; on Day 3' class='high'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>High</a></td></tr><tr class='odd'> <td headers='hz-hazards'>Ice (&#8805; 0.25&#8221;)</td><td headers='hz-dayone' title='There are No Risk Areas of Ice Accumulations &#8805; 0.25&#8221; on Day 1' class='threats'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td><td headers='hz-daytwo' title='There are No Risk Areas of Ice Accumulations &#8805; 0.25&#8221; on Day 2' class='threats'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td><td headers='hz-daythree' title='There are No Risk Areas of Ice Accumulations &#8805; 0.25&#8221; on Day 3' class='threats'><a href='/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities' target='_blank'>No Area</a></td></tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="haz-two"> <table class="haz-two-table" summary="table that displays WPC/CPC hazards for Days 4-7"> <!-- <thead> <tr> <th id='hz-day47'>Feb 28 - Mar 04</th> </tr> </thead> --> <tr class="odd"> <!-- <td class="threats" headers='hz-day47'> Due to technical difficulties, some products will not be available overnight. Please check issuance times.</td> --> <td class="threats" headers='hz-day47'> <div style="margin-left:2em;margin-right:2em;"> <a href="/threats/threats.php" style="background:#7FFF7F;">WPC's Medium Range Hazards Forecast</a> <div style="line-height:75%;">&nbsp;<div> <a href="/wwd/wssi/wssi.php" style="background:#7FFF7F;">Winter Storm Severity Index</a> <div style="line-height:75%;">&nbsp;<div> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk" style="background:#7FFF7F;">Experimental HeatRisk</a> </div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div class="haz-question"> <div><a title="More About WPC's Hazards Table" target="_blank" href='/para/para_includes/WPC_Hazards_Table.pdf'><img class="question" src="../para/para_css/images/question.png" height="18"></img></a></div> </div> </div> </div> <!-- Main Product Display --> <!-- product selection --> <div class="product-body"> <div id='product' class='product-tabs-container'> <!--display product tabs--> <ul id="toc" class="product-tabs"> <li><a href="#ovw" title="national overview"><span>Overview</span></a></li> <li><a href="#sfc" title="surface analysis"><span>Surface Analysis</span></a></li> <li><a href="#frt" title="fronts and pressures through day 7"><span>Fronts</span></a></li> <li><a href="#qpf" title="quantitative precipitation forecasts"><span>QPF</span></a></li> <li><a href="#ero" title="rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance"><span>Excessive Rain</span></a></li> <li><a href="#wwx" title="winter weather forecasts"><span>Winter Wx</span></a></li> <li><a href="#med" title="medium range forecasts (day 3-7)"><span>Day 3&ndash;7</span></a></li> <li><a href="#tls" title="forecaster toolbox"><span>Forecast Tools</span></a></li> </ul> <!--display products --> <div id='container' class='product-container'> <div class="product-content"> <div class="product-content-new" id="ovw"> <!--'Overview' and Headlines tab --> <!-- Add a bit of code to allow navigation using arrows between days. --> <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewo:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewo').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewo:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewo').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firsto').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-ovw' class='display-content-max-h'> <div class='display-overview-h'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">National Forecast Chart</div> <div id='TABday1S-ovw' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'><br>Valid Tue Feb 25, 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-ovw' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'><br>Valid Wed Feb 26, 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-ovw' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'><br>Valid Thu Feb 27, 2025</div> &nbsp; <!--Hover over various forecast times--> <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ovw','TABday1','3')" class="overviewo" onfocus="show_tab('ovw','TABday1','3')" id="firsto" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-ovw" class="active-forecast">Day 1</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ovw','TABday2','3')" class="overviewo" onfocus="show_tab('ovw','TABday2','3')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-ovw" class="blank">Day 2</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ovw','TABday3','3')" class="overviewo" onfocus="show_tab('ovw','TABday3','3')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-ovw" class="blank">Day 3</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <!--Button to toggle on/off product options--> <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-ovw" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('ovw');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" alt="options" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" /></a> </div> <div id="opts-ovw" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Image Format&#58; <div class="options-form"> <form> <input id="ovw-eng" type="radio" name="format" value="english" onclick="javascript:imgformat('eng');" checked ><label for="ovw-eng">English</label> <a id="TABday1F" href="/noaa/noaad1.pdf" style="display: inline">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday2F" href="/noaa/noaad2.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday3F" href="/noaa/noaad3.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <br> <input id="ovw-esp" type="radio" name="format" value="spanish" onclick="javascript:imgformat('esp');"><label for="ovw-esp">Espa&ntilde;ol</label> <a id="TABday1EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad1.pdf" style="display: inline">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday2EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad2.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <a id="TABday3EF" href="/noaa/sp_noaad3.pdf" style="display: none">(PDF)</a> <br> </form> </div> <div class='options-form2'><a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <!--Display image--> <!-- <div> <div id="TABday1G-ovw" style="display:block;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='../../NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad1.png' id='ovwimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'> </a> </div> <div id="TABday2G-ovw" style="display:none;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='../../NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad2.png' id='ovwimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'> </a> </div> <div id="TABday3G-ovw" style="display:none;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='../../NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad3.png' id='ovwimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'> </a> </div> </div> --> <div> <div id="TABday1G-ovw" style="display:block;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='/NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad1.png' id='ovwimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'> </a> </div> <div id="TABday2G-ovw" style="display:none;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='/NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad2.png' id='ovwimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'> </a> </div> <div id="TABday3G-ovw" style="display:none;"> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php"> <img class='display-img-ove' src='NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad3.png' id='ovwimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'> </a> </div> </div> <!--Additional Links--> <div id='links-ovw' class='links-ove'> <!-- <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('ddisco-ovw')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; View Forecast Discussion</a><br> <div id="ddisco-ovw" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/about_Gudes.shtml" alt="Product Description">Description of the National Forecast Chart</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa_archive.php?reset=yes" alt="Product Archives">Product Archives</a></li> <li>&#187; Download hazards in <a href="http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/kml/kmlproducts.php#sigwx" alt="KML">KML</a> or <a href="http://ftp.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shapefiles/noaa_chart/" alt="shapefile">shapefile format</a></li> </ul> </div> --> <a href="/NationalForecastChart/map.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> &#187; Interactive National Forecast Chart</a><br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-ovw')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-ovw" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="/html/about_Gudes.shtml" alt="Product Description">Description of the National Forecast Chart</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/noaa/noaa_archive.php?reset=yes" alt="Product Archives">Product Archives</a></li> <li>&#187; Download hazards in <a href="/kml/kmlproducts.php#sigwx" alt="KML">KML</a> or <a href="https://ftp.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shapefiles/noaa_chart/" alt="shapefile">shapefile format</a> or <a href="/NationalForecastChart/mapdata/" alt="GeoJSON">GeoJSON format</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class='display-headlines'> <!--Headlines/Top Stories Feed --> <div class='display-title-headline'> WPC Top Stories: </div> <!-- display headlines --> <div class='news-list'> <a href='/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0052&amp;yr=2025 ' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='../metwatch/images/sm_mcd0052.gif' alt='headline0' /><br>Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #0052 is currently in effect</div></a><a href='https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='/para/images/ppp.png' alt='headline1' /><br>Explore WPC's experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal</div></a><a href='/para/para_images/ERO_Categories.png' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='/para/para_images/ERO_Categories.png' alt='headline2' /><br>Understanding WPC's Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories</div></a><a href='/wwd/wssi/wssi.php' target='_blank'><div class='news-list-border'><img id='highlightimg' class='news-logo-img-yes' src='/wwd/wssi/images/WSSI_Overall_CONUS.png' alt='headline3' /><br>View the Winter Storm Severity Index to see potential impacts from winter weather</div></a> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="sfc"> <!--'Surface' tab --> <!-- Add a bit of code to allow navigation using arrows between days. --> <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviews:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviews').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviews:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviews').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firsts').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-sfc' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">North American Surface Analysis <a href="html/sfc2.shtml" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 12Z Mon Feb 24, 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 15Z Mon Feb 24, 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 18Z Mon Feb 24, 2025</div><div id='TABday4S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 21Z Mon Feb 24, 2025</div><div id='TABday5S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 00Z Tue Feb 25, 2025</div><div id='TABday6S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 03Z Tue Feb 25, 2025</div><div id='TABday7S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 06Z Tue Feb 25, 2025</div><div id='TABday8S-sfc' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 09Z Tue Feb 25, 2025</div><div id='TABday9S-sfc' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed at 12Z Tue Feb 25, 2025</div> &nbsp; <!--Hover over various forecast times--> <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday1','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday1','9')" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-sfc" class="blank">-24 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday2','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday2','9')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-sfc" class="blank">-21 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday3','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday3','9')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-sfc" class="blank">-18 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday4','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday4','9')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-sfc" class="blank">-15 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday5','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday5','9')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-sfc" class="blank">-12 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday6','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday6','9')" alt="Day6"><span id="TABday6T-sfc" class="blank">-9 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday7','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday7','9')" alt="Day7"><span id="TABday7T-sfc" class="blank">-6 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday8','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday8','9')" alt="Day8"><span id="TABday8T-sfc" class="blank">-3 hr</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('sfc','TABday9','9')" class="overviews" onfocus="show_tab('sfc','TABday9','9')" id="firsts" alt="Day9"><span id="TABday9T-sfc" class="active-forecast">latest</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <!--Button to toggle on/off product options--> <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-sfc" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('sfc');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" alt="options"/></a> </div> <div id="opts-sfc" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Image Format&#58; <div class="options-form"> <form> <input id="sfc-std" type="radio" name="format" value="standard" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('namussfc');" checked ><label for="sfc-std">Standard</label> <br> <input id="sfc-sat" type="radio" name="format" value="satellite" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('ussatsfc');"><label for="sfc-sat">Satellite Composite</label> <br> <input id="sfc-rad" type="radio" name="format" value="radar" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('radsfcus_exp_new');"><label for="sfc-rad">Radar Composite</label> <br> <input id="sfc-baw" type="radio" name="format" value="blckwhite" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('bw');"><label for="sfc-baw">Black and White</label> <br> <input id="sfc-frt" type="radio" name="format" value="fronts" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('usfntsfc');"><label for="sfc-frt">Fronts Only</label> <br> <!-- ****These maps aren't archived, so can't get -24 map for website**** <input id="ovw-esp" type="radio" name="format" value="spanish" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('dwm');">Daily Weather Map<br>&nbsp;&nbsp;background <br> <input id="ovw-esp" type="radio" name="format" value="spanish" onclick="javascript:imgformatsfc('aks');">Alaska <br> --> </form> </div> <div class='options-form2'><a href="/html/sfc-zoom.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <!--javascript to change sfc options --> <script> function imgformatsfc(nam) { //get info from php variables var numprod = 9; var maphours = ["12","15","18","21","00","03","06","09","12"]; var oldimgsrc = ["\/archives\/sfc\/2025\/namussfc2025022412.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc15wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc18wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc21wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc00wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc03wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc06wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc09wbg.gif","\/sfc\/namussfc12wbg.gif"]; //info to grab from archives var ayear = "2025"; var afilename = "2025022412"; //get new sources for selected sfc image var ndirectory = 'https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc'; var narcdirectory = 'https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/sfc'; var newimgsrc = new Array(); for (i = 0; i < numprod; i++) { if (nam == 'namussfc') { // user selects 'standard' newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + nam + maphours[i] + 'wbg.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + nam + afilename + '.gif'; } } else if (nam == 'bw') { //user selects 'black and white' newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + 'print_us' + maphours[i] + nam + '.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + 'print_us' + afilename + '.gif'; } } else if (nam == 'usfntsfc') { //user selects 'fronts only' newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + nam + maphours[i] + 'wbg.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + nam + afilename + '.gif'; } } else { newimgsrc[i] = ndirectory + '/' + nam + maphours[i] + '.gif'; //if map is from -24hrs, need to grab it from archives if (i == 0) { newimgsrc[i] = narcdirectory + '/' + ayear + '/' + nam + afilename + '.gif'; } } //change image source var idnum = i + 1; var sfcid = 'sfcimg' + idnum ; document.getElementById(sfcid).src = newimgsrc[i]; } // alert(newimgsrc[3]); } </script> <!--Display images--> <div> <div id='TABday1G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/archives/sfc/2025/namussfc2025022412.gif' id='sfcimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc15wbg.gif' id='sfcimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc18wbg.gif' id='sfcimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc21wbg.gif' id='sfcimg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc00wbg.gif' id='sfcimg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div><div id='TABday6G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc03wbg.gif' id='sfcimg6' alt='Day 6 image not available'></div><div id='TABday7G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc06wbg.gif' id='sfcimg7' alt='Day 7 image not available'></div><div id='TABday8G-sfc' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc09wbg.gif' id='sfcimg8' alt='Day 8 image not available'></div><div id='TABday9G-sfc' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='/sfc/namussfc12wbg.gif' id='sfcimg9' alt='Day 9 image not available'></div> </div> <!--Additional Links--> <div id='links-sfc' class='links-max'> <a href="/html/sfc-zoom.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> &#187; Interactive Surface Map</a><br> <a href="https://ocean.weather.gov/unified_analysis.php" target="_blank"> &#187; NWS Unified Surface Analysis</a><br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-sfc')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-sfc" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive.php" alt="Product Archives">Product Archives</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/sfc/UASfcManualVersion1.pdf" alt="Product Info">NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/html/sfc2.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other Surface Analysis Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="frt"> <!--'Day 1/2 to 2 1/2 tab' --> <!-- Add a bit of code to allow navigation using arrows between days. --> <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewf:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewf').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewf:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewf').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firstf').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-frt' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Surface Fronts and Sea-Level Pressures <a href="basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-frt' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'>Analyzed 12Z Tue Feb 25, 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 18Z Tue Feb 25, 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z Wed Feb 26, 2025</div><div id='TABday4S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 06Z Wed Feb 26, 2025</div><div id='TABday5S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26, 2025</div><div id='TABday6S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z Thu Feb 27, 2025</div><div id='TABday7S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Thu Feb 27, 2025</div><div id='TABday8S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Fri Feb 28, 2025</div><div id='TABday9S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sat Mar 01, 2025</div><div id='TABday10S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02, 2025</div><div id='TABday11S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03, 2025</div><div id='TABday12S-frt' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Tue Mar 04, 2025</div> &nbsp; <!--Hover over various forecast times--> <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday1','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday1','12')" id="firstf" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-frt" class="active-forecast">12ZTue</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><span class='nav-vline'>&nbsp;</span><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday2','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday2','12')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-frt" class="blank">18ZTue</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday3','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday3','12')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-frt" class="blank">00ZWed</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday4','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday4','12')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-frt" class="blank">06ZWed</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday5','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday5','12')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-frt" class="blank">12ZWed</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday6','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday6','12')" alt="Day6"><span id="TABday6T-frt" class="blank">00ZThu</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday7','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday7','12')" alt="Day7"><span id="TABday7T-frt" class="blank">12ZThu</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><span class='nav-vline'>&nbsp;</span><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday8','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday8','12')" alt="Day8"><span id="TABday8T-frt" class="blank">12ZFri</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday9','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday9','12')" alt="Day9"><span id="TABday9T-frt" class="blank">12ZSat</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday10','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday10','12')" alt="Day10"><span id="TABday10T-frt" class="blank">12ZSun</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday11','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday11','12')" alt="Day11"><span id="TABday11T-frt" class="blank">12ZMon</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('frt','TABday12','12')" class="overviewf" onfocus="show_tab('frt','TABday12','12')" alt="Day12"><span id="TABday12T-frt" class="blank">12ZTue</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <!--Button to toggle on/off product options--> <!-- <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-frt" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('frt');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" /></a> </div> <div id="opts-frt" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Coming Soon </div> </div> </div> </div> --> <!--Display images--> <div> <div id='TABday1G-frt' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../sfc/usfntsfc12wbg.gif' id='frtimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/93fndfd_init_2025022500.gif ' id='frtimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/94fndfd_init_2025022500.gif ' id='frtimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/95fndfd_init_2025022500.gif ' id='frtimg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/96fndfd_init_2025022500.gif ' id='frtimg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div><div id='TABday6G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/98fndfd_init_2025022500.gif ' id='frtimg6' alt='Day 6 image not available'></div><div id='TABday7G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../basicwx/99fndfd_init_2025022500.gif ' id='frtimg7' alt='Day 7 image not available'></div><div id='TABday8G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf072.gif' id='frtimg8' alt='Day 8 image not available'></div><div id='TABday9G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf096.gif' id='frtimg9' alt='Day 9 image not available'></div><div id='TABday10G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf120.gif' id='frtimg10' alt='Day 10 image not available'></div><div id='TABday11G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf144.gif' id='frtimg11' alt='Day 11 image not available'></div><div id='TABday12G-frt' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/display/wpcwx+frontsf168.gif' id='frtimg12' alt='Day 12 image not available'></div> </div> <!--Additional Links--> <div id='links-frt' class='links-max'> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frtsr-disco')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day &#189;-2&#189;)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-frtsr-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> Short Range Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>256 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br> <br>Valid 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 27 2025 <br> <br>...Locally heavy rainfall and high elevation mountain snow in the <br>Northwest continues through the day Tuesday before winding down <br>overnight... <br> <br>...Clipper system to bring scattered rain and snow showers from the <br>Midwest to the Appalachians/Interior Northeast late Tuesday into <br>Wednesday... <br> <br>...Well above average temperatures and mild conditions for most of the <br>country this week... <br> <br>Areas of locally heavy rainfall and higher elevation mountain snow <br>continue Tuesday across the Pacific Northwest east through the northern <br>Rockies as an Atmospheric River event begins to wind down. A cold front <br>passage through the region will bring an end to the precipitation with <br>most rainfall ending by Tuesday evening and high elevation snows lingering <br>into Wednesday morning. Rainfall totals will be down compared to the past <br>couple of days, but some heavier additional snow accumulations are <br>expected for the northern Cascades and ranges of the northern Rockies. <br> <br>An upper-level shortwave passing over the Appalachians and the interior <br>Northeast today will bring some scattered light rain showers, with a <br>wintry mix/snow showers for higher elevations and northern areas along the <br>Canadian border. Little to no snow accumulations are expected. Then, a <br>quick moving clipper system will pass through the Midwest overnight <br>Tuesday and reach the Northeast by Wednesday bringing more scattered rain <br>showers as well as more snow showers for northern locations near the <br>Canadian border and higher elevations of the interior Northeast. Any snow <br>accumulations should once again remain limited. <br> <br>Most of the country will see a period of mild conditions through the rest <br>of this week, with highs upwards of 10-20 degrees above average for many <br>locations. Forecast highs Tuesday and Wednesday generally range from the <br>40s and 50s for the Great Basin, northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and <br>Northeast; the 50s and 60s for the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic; the 60s and <br>70s for California and the Southeast; the 70s and 80s in the southern <br>Plains; and the 80s and 90s in the Desert Southwest. One exception to the <br>above average temperatures will be for the Northwest Tuesday where 40s and <br>50s expected, though temperatures here should warm on Wednesday by 5-10 <br>degrees. After a very warm day into the 60s and 70s for the central Plains <br>Tuesday, a cold front passage will bring some more seasonable temperatures <br>in the 40s and 50s Wednesday. <br> <br>Putnam <br> <br> <br>Graphics available at <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php</a></u></a> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frtmr-disco')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-frtmr-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>157 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br> <br>Valid 12Z Fri Feb 28 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025 <br> <br> <br>...Overview... <br> <br>The medium range continues to feature a rather progressive overall <br>flow pattern. Troughing over the East on Friday will be reinforced <br>again this weekend by a shortwave through the Upper Midwest. <br>Meanwhile out West, a cutoff upper low will slide into southern <br>California on Friday, across the Southwest this weekend, and weaken <br>or get absorbed into the larger scale flow early next week over <br>the southern Plains. Behind this, another deep trough or upper low <br>will move into the West Coast Sunday into Monday, with general <br>indications of a more amplified pattern across the West to Central <br>U.S. next week. <br> <br> <br>...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... <br> <br>Latest guidance continues to show good agreement on the overall <br>pattern progression and dominant features of the medium range <br>period, but with plenty of uncertainty in the details. Two main <br>sources of uncertainty lie with the pair of upper lows through the <br>Western U.S. this weekend and again next week. The first, into <br>southern California on Friday, has shown improved consistency in <br>the timing, but there is variability in the track. Through the <br>12z/18z Feb 24 models, the GFS was notably displaced north of the <br>UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF. The EC-based AI models were also varied and <br>thus suggesting that either placement was plausible. Also, to note, <br>the new 00z runs of the ECMWF and CMC tonight (available after WPC <br>forecast generation time) also trended slightly north. For the <br>second trough early next week, the guidance agrees on its existence <br>but there's considerable uncertainty in the timing and evolution. <br>The ECMWF remains on the faster side, with the trough over the <br>Central U.S. by next Tuesday. The GFS, however, still has the <br>trough over the West by that time. The CMC seemed a nice middle <br>ground solution. Ensemble means generally sided with their <br>deterministic counterparts, but with slightly less longitudinal <br>spread. <br> <br>The WPC blend for tonight used a multi-model blend the first few <br>days of the period, transitioning to a non-GFS and heavily weighted <br>ensemble mean blend by Day 7. <br> <br> <br>...Weather/Hazards Highlights... <br> <br>A clipper system should bring a round of precipitation to the <br>Great Lakes and Northeast Friday into Saturday, with moderate <br>snowfall possibly enhanced by the lake waters across the upper <br>Great Lakes, with mixed precipitation just to the south. A period <br>of strong and gusty winds can also be expected on Friday across the <br>northern Plains and perhaps into Saturday near the Great Lakes on <br>the back-side of the system as cold air rushes in behind it. <br> <br>A building ridge should keep conditions quiet and dry across the <br>West into Friday. The southern stream upper low moving across <br>southern California Friday and inland next weekend may lead to <br>light showers over California, the Southwest, and into the south- <br>central U.S., with increasing rain chances in the southern Plains <br>by next Sunday as moisture increases. There appears to be a better <br>signal for the precipitation to spread farther east/northeast <br>across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The northern stream <br>trough moving through the eastern Pacific and into the West next <br>weekend will also bring precipitation back into the forecast for <br>the West Coast and Great Basin and spreading inland. <br> <br>Much above normal temperatures will be well established by <br>Thursday across the West and into the northern/central Plains. The <br>greatest anomalies will be across the Plains with daytime highs 20 <br>to locally 30 degrees above normal, with 60s for highs as far north <br>as Nebraska or perhaps even South Dakota. The above normal <br>temperatures will spread south and east, with the West trending <br>cooler by early next week. Across the East, temperatures will vary <br>between normal and above normal into Saturday, but may be below <br>normal Sunday into Monday as troughing is most established. <br> <br> <br>Santorelli <br> <br> <br>Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC <br>medium range hazards outlook chart at: <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php</a></u></a> <br> <br>WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, <br>quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall <br>outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat <br>indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: <br> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw</a></u></a> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frthi-disco')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-frthi-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> <br>Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>233 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br> <br>Valid 00Z Wed Feb 26 2025 - 00Z Wed Mar 05 2025 <br> <br>The latest model and ensemble guidance for Hawaii continues to <br>favor mean upper ridging persisting over the state for the next <br>week with generally light to moderate trades, with some <br>variability in speed and direction as a couple of cold fronts pass <br>to the north of the state. Showers may favor windward locations at <br>times, but should be very light and scattered in nature. A front <br>approaching the islands around the Wednesday and Thursday may <br>bring more southerly winds and a slight uptick in showery <br>activity, especially for western islands. Once this passes, winds <br>should shift more easterly again as upper ridging strengthens over <br>the state. Surface high pressure moving in north of Hawaii may <br>bring stronger wind speeds, but with a mostly dry and stable <br>weather pattern into next weekend and early next week. <br> <br>Santorelli <br> <br> <br> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-frt')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-frt" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="/html/sfc2.shtml" alt="Surface Products">More Surface Analysis Products</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php" alt="Short Range Products">More Short Range Products</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/medr/medr.shtml" alt="Medium Range Products">More Medium Range Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="qpf"> <!--'QPF' tab --> <!-- Add a bit of code to allow navigation using arrows between days. --> <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { //$(".overviewqpf:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewqpf').focus(); $(".overviewqpf:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewqpf').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { //$(".overviewqpf:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewqpf').focus(); $(".overviewqpf:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewqpf').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firstqpf').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-qpf' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts <a href="qpf/qpf2.shtml" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <!--display valid times--> <!--validtimes for qpf option 1: 24hr/MultiDay Totals --> <div id="validtimes-qpf-opt1" style="display:block;"> <div id='TABday1S-qpf' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 12Z 02/26/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday2S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/26/2025 - 12Z 02/27/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday3S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/27/2025 - 12Z 02/28/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday4S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z 03/01/2025 - 00Z 03/02/2025</div><div id='TABday5S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z 03/02/2025 - 00Z 03/03/2025</div><div id='TABday6S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z 03/03/2025 - 00Z 03/04/2025</div><div id='TABday7S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z 03/04/2025 - 00Z 03/05/2025</div><div id='TABday8S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 12Z 02/27/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday9S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 12Z 02/28/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday10S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 12Z 03/02/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday11S-qpf' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 12Z 03/04/2025</snippet> </div></div> <!--validtimes for qpf option 2: 12-hourlys (Day 1-3)--> <div id="validtimes-qpf-opt2" style="display:none;"> <div id='TABday1S-qpftwl' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 00Z 02/26/2025</div><div id='TABday2S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 18Z 02/25/2025 - 06Z 02/26/2025</div><div id='TABday3S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z 02/26/2025 - 12Z 02/26/2025</div><div id='TABday4S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 06Z 02/26/2025 - 18Z 02/26/2025</div><div id='TABday5S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z 02/26/2025 - 00Z 02/27/2025</div><div id='TABday6S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 18Z 02/26/2025 - 06Z 02/27/2025</div><div id='TABday7S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z 02/27/2025 - 12Z 02/27/2025</div><div id='TABday8S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 06Z 02/27/2025 - 18Z 02/27/2025</div><div id='TABday9S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z 02/27/2025 - 00Z 02/28/2025</div><div id='TABday10S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 18Z 02/27/2025 - 06Z 02/28/2025</div><div id='TABday11S-qpftwl' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 00Z 02/28/2025 - 12Z 02/28/2025</div></div> <!--validtimes for qpf option 3: 6-hourlys (Day 1-3) --> <div id="validtimes-qpf-opt3" style="display:none;"> <div id='TABday1S-qpfsix' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 18Z 02/25/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday2S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 18Z 02/25/2025 - 00Z 02/26/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday3S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 02/26/2025 - 06Z 02/26/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday4S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 06Z 02/26/2025 - 12Z 02/26/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday5S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/26/2025 - 18Z 02/26/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday6S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 18Z 02/26/2025 - 00Z 02/27/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday7S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 02/27/2025 - 06Z 02/27/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday8S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 06Z 02/27/2025 - 12Z 02/27/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday9S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/27/2025 - 18Z 02/27/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday10S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 18Z 02/27/2025 - 00Z 02/28/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday11S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 02/28/2025 - 06Z 02/28/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday12S-qpfsix' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 06Z 02/28/2025 - 12Z 02/28/2025</snippet> </div></div> <!--validtimes for qpf option 4: 48-hour Day 4-5/6-7 --> <div id="validtimes-qpf-opt4" style="display:none;"> <div id='TABday1S-qpf48' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 03/01/2025 - 00Z 03/03/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday2S-qpf48' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 00Z 03/03/2025 - 00Z 03/05/2025</snippet> </div></div> &nbsp; <!--Hover over various forecast times--> <!!-- qpf-opt1: 24hr/Multi Day Totals --> <div class="navbar" id="fordays-qpf-opt1" style='display:block;'> <ul id="minitabs"> <li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('qpf','TABday1','11')" class="overviewqpf" onfocus="show_tab('qpf','TABday1','11')" id="firstqpf"alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-qpf" class="active-forecast">Day 1</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('qpf','TABday2','11')" class="overviewqpf" onfocus="show_tab('qpf','TABday2','11')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-qpf" class="blank">Day 2</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('qpf','TABday3','11')" class="overviewqpf" onfocus="show_tab('qpf','TABday3','11')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-qpf" class="blank">Day 3</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('qpf','TABday4','11')" class="overviewqpf" onfocus="show_tab('qpf','TABday4','11')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-qpf" class="blank">Day 4</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('qpf','TABday5','11')" class="overviewqpf" onfocus="show_tab('qpf','TABday5','11')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-qpf" 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Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr Day 1 ...Northern Plains - Upper Mississippi Valley... Upper ridge axis pushes east of the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley region Tue night. In its wake, an uptick in broad scale upper forcing (divergence aloft) will ensue, and get a considerable boost within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak traversing southern Ontario. Meanwhile, the increasing (and veering) nocturnal LLJ will lead to rapid low-level moisture/theta e transport ahead of a sharpening frontal zone. Both synoptic and thermodynamic indicators give credence to the the multi-model signal of a developing MCS overnight along the "ring of fire", though as is typical, the model solutions are not well clustered with respect to the details in terms of MCS track and thus axis of heaviest rainfall. WPC did nudge the QPF axis a little father south from the previous forecast -- essentially in line with the blend of the WRF-ARW, ARW2, and NSSL-WRF (all of which aligned reasonably well, while the NAM CONUS Nest, WRF-NMMB, NBM, and global guidance were farther north. Despite the fairly vigorous mid-level cap, based on climo like the aforementioned high-res depiction of the heavy rainfall footprint farther south, along and north of the surface boundary where the coupling of robust deep-layer elevated instability and moisture transport will be maximized north-northeast of the 700 mb +12C isotherm. Also supporting a more southern solution of the MCS track/heaviest QPF would be the degree of southward propagation overnight, as the s=sw LLJ begins to exceed the speed of the mean 850-300 mb flow. At this point, the progged shear profiles would support a progressive MCS; however, multiple rounds of convection as noted from the ARW/ARW2 (first one along the initial wnw-ese warm frontal boundary) could pose a more enhanced flash flood risk across far northeast SD and southeast ND. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... Mid-upper shortwave trough -- bolstered early in the period the MCV over the ARKLATEX -- will be the catalyst for additional diurnally-enhanced convection along the surface stationary front south toward the Gulf coast. 0-6km bulk shear values aoa 25 kts along with robust deep-layer instability (mucapes at 2000-3000+ j/kg) will support more organized, widespread coverage during the afternoon through mid evening ahead of the upper trough, with the surface moisture convergence getting an added boost from the developing Gulf breezes. Despite the relatively high 1-3 hourly FFG (generally 2.5-3.0" in 1 hour and 3-4" in 3 hours), localized totals of 3-5" within a few hours per the high-res CAMs would support a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, particularly over portions of se LA given the relatively wetter antecedent soils (lower FFG values). Hurley Day 2 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Northern Rockies to Central Plains... Weak shortwave energy rounding a broad mid-upper level ridge axis extending up the high plains will cross the north-central Great Plains Wednesday. A low level jet under the ridge will bring Gulf moisture north with 1.5 inch PW over NE/IA which is two standard deviations above normal. The combination of high moisture, instability, and mid level forcing should be enough to break the cap and trigger scattered heavy thunderstorms that will shift southeast in the anticyclonic flow. MCS development is likely given the strong instability and expected forward propagation. QPF was based on a blend of the 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF and in-house bias-corrected blend. The marginal risk is for the main convective storm breeding ground east of the Sand Hills where 6-hr FFG is generally 2 to 2.5 inches. Progression of organized/MCS activity may need to be accounted for in subsequent QPF and ERO. ...Florida... A swath of 1.75 inch PW along a stalled front will allow heavy rain across central FL. Light easterly mean flow could allow repeating cells off the Gulf. FFG is quite high in central FL, so flash flooding is likely limited locally. Day 3 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Northern Rockies to Central Plains... Weak shortwave energy rounding a broad mid-upper level ridge axis extending up the high plains will cross the northern Great Plains Thursday. A wake from Wednesday activity should exist over the north-central plains Thursday with development likely initiation along remnant boundaries. 1.25 to 1.5 inch PW is 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal. Instability is progged to be stronger over the Central Plains then MT which may allow for greater MCS development. More details on mesoscale processes on subsequent forecasts. QPF was based on a blend of the 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF and in-house bias-corrected blend. The marginal risks over MT and NE/KS/IA is based on 00Z consensus for the low position along with more sensitive FFG. Hurley/Jackson Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml </pre> </div> </div> --> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-qpf')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-qpf" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="/html/hpcverif.shtml#qpf" alt="Product Verification">Product Verification</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/archives/qpf/get_qpf_images.php" alt="Product Archive">Product Archive</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/html/fam2.shtml#qpf" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>&#187; Additional formats of QPF: <a href="https://ftp.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/2p5km_qpf/" alt="GRIB2">GRIB 2</a> &#124; <a href="../html/about_gis.shtml" alt="Shapefiles">Shapefiles</a> &#124; <a href="../kml/kmlproducts.php" alt="KML">KML</a> </li> <li>&#187; <a href="/qpf/qpf2.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other QPF Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="ero"> <!--'Hvy Rain' tab --> <!-- Add a bit of code to allow navigation using arrows between days. --> <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewe:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewe').focus(); 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<!--Hover over various analysis times--> <div class="navbar"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday1','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday1','5')" id="firste" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-ero" class="active-forecast">Day 1</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday2','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday2','5')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-ero" class="blank">Day 2</span></a></li><li><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday3','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday3','5')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-ero" class="blank">Day 3</span></a></li><li class=testtab><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday4','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday4','5')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-ero" class="blank">Day 4</span></a></li><li class=testtab><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('ero','TABday5','5')" class="overviewe" onfocus="show_tab('ero','TABday5','5')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-ero" class="blank">Day 5</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <!--Button to toggle on/off product options--> <!-- <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-ero" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('ero');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" /></a> </div> <div id="opts-ero" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Coming Soon </div> </div> </div> </div> --> <!--Display images--> <div> <div id='TABday1G-ero' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/94ewbg.gif' id='eroimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/98ewbg.gif' id='eroimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/99ewbg.gif' id='eroimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/ero_d45/images/d4wbg.gif' id='eroimg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-ero' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../qpf/ero_d45/images/d5wbg.gif' id='eroimg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div> </div> <!--Additional Links--> <div id='links-ero' class='links-max'> <a href="/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php">Interactive Page</> <br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-ero-disco')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Forecast Discussion</a><br> <div id="dlinks-ero-disco" style="display: none"> <div id='TABday1D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: block'> <br>Excessive Rainfall Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>250 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br>Day 1 <br>Valid 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 26 2025 <br> <br>The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less <br>than 5 percent. <br> <br>Lingering but diminishing rainfall will continue into the coastal <br>ranges of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon through the <br>morning. See MPD #52 at <br>wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0052&yr=2025 <br>for more details on the local heavy rain threat. <br> <br>Wegman <br> <br>Day 1 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt</u></a> <br></div><div id='TABday2D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'> <br>Excessive Rainfall Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>250 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br>Day 2 <br>Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 27 2025 <br> <br>The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less <br>than 5 percent. <br> <br>Wegman <br> <br>Day 2 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt</u></a> <br></div><div id='TABday3D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'> <br>Excessive Rainfall Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>250 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br>Day 3 <br>Valid 12Z Thu Feb 27 2025 - 12Z Fri Feb 28 2025 <br> <br>The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less <br>than 5 percent. <br> <br>Wegman <br> <br>Day 3 threat area: <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt"<u>www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt</u></a> <br></div><div id='TABday4D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'>Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>157 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br> <br> <br>A clipper system should bring a round of precipitation to the <br>Great Lakes and Northeast Friday into Saturday, with moderate <br>snowfall possibly enhanced by the lake waters across the upper <br>Great Lakes, with mixed precipitation just to the south. A period <br>of strong and gusty winds can also be expected on Friday across the <br>northern Plains and perhaps into Saturday near the Great Lakes on <br>the back-side of the system as cold air rushes in behind it. <br> <br>A building ridge should keep conditions quiet and dry across the <br>West into Friday. The southern stream upper low moving across <br>southern California Friday and inland next weekend may lead to <br>light showers over California, the Southwest, and into the south- <br>central U.S., with increasing rain chances in the southern Plains <br>by next Sunday as moisture increases. There appears to be a better <br>signal for the precipitation to spread farther east/northeast <br>across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The northern stream <br>trough moving through the eastern Pacific and into the West next <br>weekend will also bring precipitation back into the forecast for <br>the West Coast and Great Basin and spreading inland. <br> <br>Much above normal temperatures will be well established by <br>Thursday across the West and into the northern/central Plains. The <br>greatest anomalies will be across the Plains with daytime highs 20 <br>to locally 30 degrees above normal, with 60s for highs as far north <br>as Nebraska or perhaps even South Dakota. The above normal <br>temperatures will spread south and east, with the West trending <br>cooler by early next week. Across the East, temperatures will vary <br>between normal and above normal into Saturday, but may be below <br>normal Sunday into Monday as troughing is most established. <br> <br> <br>Santorelli <br> <br> <br></div><div id='TABday5D-ero' class='dlinks-disco' style='display: none'>Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>157 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br> <br> <br>A clipper system should bring a round of precipitation to the <br>Great Lakes and Northeast Friday into Saturday, with moderate <br>snowfall possibly enhanced by the lake waters across the upper <br>Great Lakes, with mixed precipitation just to the south. A period <br>of strong and gusty winds can also be expected on Friday across the <br>northern Plains and perhaps into Saturday near the Great Lakes on <br>the back-side of the system as cold air rushes in behind it. <br> <br>A building ridge should keep conditions quiet and dry across the <br>West into Friday. The southern stream upper low moving across <br>southern California Friday and inland next weekend may lead to <br>light showers over California, the Southwest, and into the south- <br>central U.S., with increasing rain chances in the southern Plains <br>by next Sunday as moisture increases. There appears to be a better <br>signal for the precipitation to spread farther east/northeast <br>across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The northern stream <br>trough moving through the eastern Pacific and into the West next <br>weekend will also bring precipitation back into the forecast for <br>the West Coast and Great Basin and spreading inland. <br> <br>Much above normal temperatures will be well established by <br>Thursday across the West and into the northern/central Plains. The <br>greatest anomalies will be across the Plains with daytime highs 20 <br>to locally 30 degrees above normal, with 60s for highs as far north <br>as Nebraska or perhaps even South Dakota. The above normal <br>temperatures will spread south and east, with the West trending <br>cooler by early next week. Across the East, temperatures will vary <br>between normal and above normal into Saturday, but may be below <br>normal Sunday into Monday as troughing is most established. <br> <br> <br>Santorelli <br> <br> <br></div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-ero')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-ero" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="/html/fam2.shtml#excessrain" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/para/para_images/ERO_Categories.png" alt="Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories">Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/qpf/eroclimo/" alt="ERO Climatology">Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="wwx"> <!--'Winter Weather' tab --> <!-- Add a bit of code to allow navigation using arrows between days. --> <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewwin:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewwin').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewwin:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewwin').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firstwin').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-wwx' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Winter Weather Forecasts <a href="/wwd/winter_wx.shtml" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-wwx' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/25/2025 - 12Z 02/26/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday2S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/26/2025 - 12Z 02/27/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday3S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/27/2025 - 12Z 02/28/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday4S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 02/28/2025 - 12Z 03/01/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday5S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 03/01/2025 - 12Z 03/02/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday6S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 03/02/2025 - 12Z 03/03/2025</snippet> </div><div id='TABday7S-wwx' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'> <snippet>Valid 12Z 03/03/2025 - 12Z 03/04/2025</snippet> </div> &nbsp; <!--Hover over various analysis times--> <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday1','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday1','7')" id="firstwin" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-wwx" class="active-forecast">Day 1</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday2','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday2','7')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-wwx" class="blank">Day 2</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday3','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday3','7')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-wwx" class="blank">Day 3</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><span class='nav-vline'>&nbsp;</span><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday4','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday4','7')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-wwx" class="blank">Day 4</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday5','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday5','7')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-wwx" class="blank">Day 5</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday6','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday6','7')" alt="Day6"><span id="TABday6T-wwx" class="blank">Day 6</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('wwx','TABday7','7')" class="overviewwin" onfocus="show_tab('wwx','TABday7','7')" alt="Day7"><span id="TABday7T-wwx" class="blank">Day 7</span></a></li> <li class="cforday"><a title="more about WPC's Winter Weather Forecasts" href="#" onclick="window.open('../../wwd/wwd_info.html','newwindow', 'width=900, height=500'); return false;"><img class="winwx-question" src="../para/para_css/images/question.png" height="14"></img></a></li> <!-- <div class="haz-question"> <div class="haz-question-circle"><a title="More About WPC's Hazards Table" target="_blank" href='http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/para/para_includes/WPC_Hazards_Table.pdf'>&#63;</a></div> </div> --> </ul> </div> </div> <!--Button to toggle on/off product options--> <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-wwx" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('wwx');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" /></a> </div> <div id="opts-wwx" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Day 1-3 Image Options&#58; <div class="options-form"> <form> <input id="wwx-for" type="radio" name="format" value="four" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('for');" checked ><label for="wwx-for">Snowfall (&#8805; 4&#8221;)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-egt" type="radio" name="format" value="eight" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('egt');"><label for="wwx-egt">Snowfall (&#8805; 8&#8221;)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-twl" type="radio" name="format" value="twelve" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('twl');"><label for="wwx-twl">Snowfall (&#8805; 12&#8221;)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-ice" type="radio" name="format" value="ice" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('ice');"><label for="wwx-ice">Freezing Rain (&#8805; .25&#8221;)</label> <br> <input id="wwx-com" type="radio" name="format" value="composite" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('com');"><label for="wwx-com">Composite Charts</label> <br> <!-- <input id="wwx-lcl" type="radio" name="format" value="lowclu" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('lcl');">Low Tracks (clusters) <br> <input id="wwx-lcr" type="radio" name="format" value="lowcir" onclick="javascript:imgformatwwx('lcr');">Low Tracks (circles) <br> --> </form> </div> <div class='options-form2'><a href="/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map (Day 1-3)</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php" target="_blank">Interactive Map (Day 4-7)</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/wssi/wssi.php" target="_blank">Winter Storm Severity Index</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php" target="_blank">Probabilistic Winter Storm<br>Severity Index</a></div> <div class='options-form3'><a href="/wwd/wso" target="_blank">Experimental Winter<br>Storm Outlook</a></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <!--javascript to change wwd options --> <script> function imgformatwwx(nam) { //get new valid times and sources for images var newimgsrc = new Array(); var newvaltime = new Array(); if (nam =='egt') { //display >8" snowfall newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_psnow_gt_08_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_psnow_gt_08_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_psnow_gt_08_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/25\/2025 - 12Z 02\/26\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/26\/2025 - 12Z 02\/27\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/27\/2025 - 12Z 02\/28\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/28\/2025 - 12Z 03\/01\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/01\/2025 - 12Z 03\/02\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/02\/2025 - 12Z 03\/03\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/03\/2025 - 12Z 03\/04\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } else if (nam =='twl') { //display >12" snowfall newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_psnow_gt_12_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_psnow_gt_12_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_psnow_gt_12_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif","..\/qpf\/hpcqpf_2025022512_12hr_f054.gif\n","..\/qpf\/hpcqpf_2025022512_12hr_f060.gif\n","..\/qpf\/hpcqpf_2025022512_12hr_f066.gif\n","..\/qpf\/hpcqpf_2025022512_12hr_f072.gif\n"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/25\/2025 - 12Z 02\/26\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/26\/2025 - 12Z 02\/27\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/27\/2025 - 12Z 02\/28\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/28\/2025 - 12Z 03\/01\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/01\/2025 - 12Z 03\/02\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/02\/2025 - 12Z 03\/03\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/03\/2025 - 12Z 03\/04\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } else if (nam =='ice') { //display >.25" ice newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_pice_gt_25_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_pice_gt_25_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_pice_gt_25_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/25\/2025 - 12Z 02\/26\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/26\/2025 - 12Z 02\/27\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/27\/2025 - 12Z 02\/28\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/28\/2025 - 12Z 03\/01\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/01\/2025 - 12Z 03\/02\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/02\/2025 - 12Z 03\/03\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/03\/2025 - 12Z 03\/04\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } else if (nam =='com') { //display 4-panel composite charts newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_composite_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_composite_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_composite_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/25\/2025 - 12Z 02\/26\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/26\/2025 - 12Z 02\/27\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/27\/2025 - 12Z 02\/28\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/28\/2025 - 12Z 03\/01\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/01\/2025 - 12Z 03\/02\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/02\/2025 - 12Z 03\/03\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/03\/2025 - 12Z 03\/04\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } else if (nam =='lcl') { //display low track w/ clusters newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/25\/2025 - 12Z 02\/26\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/26\/2025 - 12Z 02\/27\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/27\/2025 - 12Z 02\/28\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/28\/2025 - 12Z 03\/01\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/01\/2025 - 12Z 03\/02\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/02\/2025 - 12Z 03\/03\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/03\/2025 - 12Z 03\/04\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } else if (nam =='lcr') { //display low track w/ circles newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/25\/2025 - 12Z 02\/26\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/26\/2025 - 12Z 02\/27\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/27\/2025 - 12Z 02\/28\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/28\/2025 - 12Z 03\/01\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/01\/2025 - 12Z 03\/02\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/02\/2025 - 12Z 03\/03\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/03\/2025 - 12Z 03\/04\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } else { //display default >4" snowfall newimgsrc = ["..\/wwd\/day1_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day2_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/day3_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif","..\/wwd\/pwpf_d47\/gif\/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = [" <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/25\/2025 - 12Z 02\/26\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/26\/2025 - 12Z 02\/27\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/27\/2025 - 12Z 02\/28\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 02\/28\/2025 - 12Z 03\/01\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/01\/2025 - 12Z 03\/02\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/02\/2025 - 12Z 03\/03\/2025<\/snippet>\n"," <snippet>Valid 12Z 03\/03\/2025 - 12Z 03\/04\/2025<\/snippet>\n"]; } //change sources in html var numprod = 7; for (i = 0; i < numprod; i++) { var idnum = i + 1; var imgid = 'wwximg' + idnum ; var valtimeid = 'TABday' + idnum + 'S-wwx'; document.getElementById(imgid).src = newimgsrc[i]; document.getElementById(valtimeid).innerHTML = newvaltime[i]; } } </script> <!--Display images--> <div> <div id='TABday1G-wwx' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif' id='wwximg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif' id='wwximg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04_conus.gif' id='wwximg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY4_conus.gif' id='wwximg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY5_conus.gif' id='wwximg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div><div id='TABday6G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY6_conus.gif' id='wwximg6' alt='Day 6 image not available'></div><div id='TABday7G-wwx' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../wwd/pwpf_d47/gif/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif' id='wwximg7' alt='Day 7 image not available'></div> </div> <!--Additional Links--> <div id='links-wwx' class='links-max'> <a href="/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> &#187; Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 1-3)</a><br> <a href="/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> &#187; Interactive Winter Weather Map (Day 4-7)</a><br> <a href="/wwd/wssi/wssi.php" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> &#187; Winter Storm Severity Index</a><br> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/" target="_blank" class="linksmajor"> &#187; Experimental Probabilistic Precipitation Portal</a><br> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-wwx-disco')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)</a><br> <div id="dlinks-wwx-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> <br>Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>130 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br> <br>Valid 12Z Tue Feb 25 2025 - 12Z Fri Feb 28 2025 <br> <br>...Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies... <br>Day 1... <br> <br>Strong surface low pressure will be moving eastward near the Strait <br>of Juan de Fuca, pivoting onshore beneath a strong but filling <br>upper level shortwave trough. This upper feature will weaken <br>rapidly as it gets replaced by upper level ridging, resulting in <br>the surface low eroding as it moves across WA state. E/SE of this <br>stacked system, the ongoing atmospheric river (AR) will persist <br>another 12 hours as reflected by GEFS/ECENS IVT probabilities, <br>surging moisture into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies <br>D1. The lingering precipitation D1 is expected to be lighter than <br>the heavy amounts that have fallen already, but still should <br>result in heavy snow in the WA Cascades and Northern Rockies, <br>including the Bitterroots and Lewis Range, especially above <br>3000-3500 ft. In these areas, WPC probabilities for 6+ inches of <br>snow are high (>90%), and pass level impacts will continue until <br>snow wanes at the end of D1. <br> <br> <br>...Northeast... <br>Day 3... <br> <br>A modest wave of low pressure will move northeast from the Great <br>Lakes across New England Thursday into Friday, with an accompanying <br>cold front trailing in its wake. The low will likely track across <br>central New England, with the accompanying WAA causing <br>precipitation to expand in the form of snow across northern New <br>England. Although the system will be fast moving, brief heavy snow <br>is likely in the higher terrain of the White Mountains of NH where <br>WPC probabilities reach 30-50% for 4+ inches of accumulations. <br>Later D3, as the cold front passes to the east, post-frontal <br>upslope flow will develop into the Adirondacks and northern Greens, <br>with modest lake enhancement occurring into the Tug Hill Plateau. <br>In these areas, WPC probabilities for 4+ inches reach 30-50% as <br>well, but generally later in the D3 period than what will occur <br>across the NH terrain. <br> <br> <br>Weiss <br> <br> <br> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-wwx')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-wwx" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="/wwd/wso" target="_blank">Experimental Winter Storm Outlook</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/wwd/wssi/prob_wssi.php" target="_blank">Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="../verification/winwx/winwx.php" alt="Product Verification">Product Verification</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="../archives/web_pages/winwx/get_winwx_images.php" alt="Product Archive">Product Archive</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="../wwd/about.shtml" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>&#187; Forecast Surface Low Positions: <a href="../wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif" alt="Low Track Circles">Uncertainty Circles</a> &#124; <a href="../lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif" alt="Low Track Ensembles">Ensemble Clusters</a> </li> <li>&#187; <a href="../wwd/winter_wx.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other Winter Weather Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="med"> <!--'Day 3-7 tab' --> <!-- Add a bit of code to allow navigation using arrows between days. --> <script src="https://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/3.6.0/jquery.min.js"></script> <script> $(document).keydown( function(e) { if (e.keyCode == 39) { $(".overviewm:focus").closest('li').next().find('a.overviewm').focus(); } if (e.keyCode == 37) { $(".overviewm:focus").closest('li').prev().find('a.overviewm').focus(); } } ); $(function() { $('#firstm').focus(); }); </script> <div id='content-med' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Medium Range Forecasts <a href="/medr/medr.shtml" alt="Legacy Page" class="legacy-link">Legacy Page</a>:</div> <div id='TABday1S-med' style='display: block' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Fri Feb 28, 2025</div><div id='TABday2S-med' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sat Mar 01, 2025</div><div id='TABday3S-med' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02, 2025</div><div id='TABday4S-med' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03, 2025</div><div id='TABday5S-med' style='display: none' class='display-validtime'>Valid 12Z Tue Mar 04, 2025</div> &nbsp; <!--Hover over various analysis times--> <div class="navbar" id="fordays"> <ul id="minitabs"> <li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('med','TABday1','5')" class="overviewm" onfocus="show_tab('med','TABday1','5')" id="firstm" alt="Day1"><span id="TABday1T-med" class="active-forecast">Day 3</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('med','TABday2','5')" class="overviewm" onfocus="show_tab('med','TABday2','5')" alt="Day2"><span id="TABday2T-med" class="blank">Day 4</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('med','TABday3','5')" class="overviewm" onfocus="show_tab('med','TABday3','5')" alt="Day3"><span id="TABday3T-med" class="blank">Day 5</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('med','TABday4','5')" class="overviewm" onfocus="show_tab('med','TABday4','5')" alt="Day4"><span id="TABday4T-med" class="blank">Day 6</span></a></li><li class="cforday"><a href="#" OnMouseOver="show_tab('med','TABday5','5')" class="overviewm" onfocus="show_tab('med','TABday5','5')" alt="Day5"><span id="TABday5T-med" class="blank">Day 7</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <!--Button to toggle on/off product options--> <div id= "options-wrapper" class="options-wrapper"> <div id="options-tab-med" class="options-off"> <div class="options-container"> <div class="options-inner1"> <a onclick="javascript:displayoptions('med');" href="javascript:;"><img class="options-icon" src="para/para_css/images/options.png" /></a> </div> <div id="opts-med" class="options-inner2" style="display: none"> Image Options&#58; <div class="options-form"> <form> <input id="med-fro" type="radio" name="format" value="fronts" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('fro');" checked ><label for="med-fro">Fronts</label> <br> <input id="med-mxt" type="radio" name="format" value="maxtemp" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mxt');"><label for="med-mxt">Max Temp (&#176;F)</label> <br> <input id="med-mxta" type="radio" name="format" value="maxtempanom" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mxta');"><label for="med-mxta">Max Temp Anomaly (&#176;F)</label> <br> <input id="med-mnt" type="radio" name="format" value="mintemp" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mnt');"><label for="med-mnt">Min Temp (&#176;F)</label> <br> <input id="med-mnta" type="radio" name="format" value="mintempanom" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('mnta');"><label for="med-mnta">Min Temp Anomaly (&#176;F)</label> <br> <input id="med-pops" type="radio" name="format" value="pops" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('pop');"><label for="med-pop">24-hr Pop(%)</label> <br> <input id="med-ht" type="radio" name="format" value="heights" onclick="javascript:imgformatmed('ht');"><label for="med-ht">500mb Heights</label> <br> </form> </div> <div class='options-form2'> <a href="/threats/threats.php" target="_blank">Day 3-7 Hazards</a><br> <a href="/medr/medr.shtml" target="_blank">Additional Products</a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <!--javascript to change medr options --> <script> function imgformatmed(nam) { //get new valid times and sources for images var newimgsrc = new Array(); var newvaltime = new Array(); if (nam == 'mxt') { //display max temp newimgsrc = ["..\/medr\/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY5_MAX_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif"]; newvaltime = ["Valid Fri Feb 28, 2025","Valid Sat Mar 01, 2025","Valid Sun Mar 02, 2025","Valid Mon Mar 03, 2025","Valid Tue Mar 04, 2025"]; } else if (nam =='mxta') { //display max temp anom newimgsrc = ["..\/medr\/DAY3_MAX_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY4_MAX_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY5_MAX_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY6_MAX_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY7_MAX_ANOM_filled.gif"]; newvaltime = ["Valid Fri Feb 28, 2025","Valid Sat Mar 01, 2025","Valid Sun Mar 02, 2025","Valid Mon Mar 03, 2025","Valid Tue Mar 04, 2025"]; } else if (nam =='mnt') { //display min temp newimgsrc = ["..\/medr\/DAY3_MIN_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY4_MIN_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY5_MIN_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY6_MIN_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif"]; newvaltime = ["Valid Fri Feb 28, 2025","Valid Sat Mar 01, 2025","Valid Sun Mar 02, 2025","Valid Mon Mar 03, 2025","Valid Tue Mar 04, 2025"]; } else if (nam =='mnta') { //display min temp anom newimgsrc = ["..\/medr\/DAY3_MIN_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY4_MIN_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY5_MIN_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY6_MIN_ANOM_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY7_MIN_ANOM_filled.gif"]; newvaltime = ["Valid Fri Feb 28, 2025","Valid Sat Mar 01, 2025","Valid Sun Mar 02, 2025","Valid Mon Mar 03, 2025","Valid Tue Mar 04, 2025"]; } else if (nam =='pop') { //display 24-hr pops newimgsrc = ["..\/medr\/DAY3_POP_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY4_POP_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY5_POP_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY6_POP_filled.gif","..\/medr\/DAY7_POP_filled.gif"]; newvaltime = ["Centered 12Z Fri Feb 28, 2025","Centered 12Z Sat Mar 01, 2025","Centered 12Z Sun Mar 02, 2025","Centered 12Z Mon Mar 03, 2025","Centered 12Z Tue Mar 04, 2025"]; } else if (nam =='ht') { //display 500mb heights newimgsrc = ["..\/medr\/d3500wbg.gif","..\/medr\/d4500wbg.gif","..\/medr\/d5500wbg.gif","..\/medr\/d6500wbg.gif","..\/medr\/d7500wbg.gif"]; newvaltime = ["Valid 12Z Fri Feb 28, 2025","Valid 12Z Sat Mar 01, 2025","Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02, 2025","Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03, 2025","Valid 12Z Tue Mar 04, 2025"]; } else { //display default fronts/pressures newimgsrc = ["..\/medr\/9jhwbg_conus.gif","..\/medr\/9khwbg_conus.gif","..\/medr\/9lhwbg_conus.gif","..\/medr\/9mhwbg_conus.gif","..\/medr\/9nhwbg_conus.gif"]; newvaltime = ["Valid 12Z Fri Feb 28, 2025","Valid 12Z Sat Mar 01, 2025","Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02, 2025","Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03, 2025","Valid 12Z Tue Mar 04, 2025"]; } //change sources in html var numprod = 5; for (i = 0; i < numprod; i++) { var idnum = i + 1; var imgid = 'medimg' + idnum ; var valtimeid = 'TABday' + idnum + 'S-med'; document.getElementById(imgid).src = newimgsrc[i]; document.getElementById(valtimeid).innerHTML = newvaltime[i]; } } </script> <!--Display images--> <div> <div id='TABday1G-med' style='display:block;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/9jhwbg_conus.gif' id='medimg1' alt='Day 1 image not available'></div><div id='TABday2G-med' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/9khwbg_conus.gif' id='medimg2' alt='Day 2 image not available'></div><div id='TABday3G-med' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/9lhwbg_conus.gif' id='medimg3' alt='Day 3 image not available'></div><div id='TABday4G-med' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/9mhwbg_conus.gif' id='medimg4' alt='Day 4 image not available'></div><div id='TABday5G-med' style='display:none;'><img class='display-img-max' src='../medr/9nhwbg_conus.gif' id='medimg5' alt='Day 5 image not available'></div> </div> <!--Additional Links--> <div id='links-med' class='links-max'> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-med-disco')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Forecast Discussion</a><br> <div id="dlinks-med-disco" style="display: none"> <div class="dlinks-disco"> Extended Forecast Discussion <br>NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD <br>157 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025 <br> <br>Valid 12Z Fri Feb 28 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025 <br> <br> <br>...Overview... <br> <br>The medium range continues to feature a rather progressive overall <br>flow pattern. Troughing over the East on Friday will be reinforced <br>again this weekend by a shortwave through the Upper Midwest. <br>Meanwhile out West, a cutoff upper low will slide into southern <br>California on Friday, across the Southwest this weekend, and weaken <br>or get absorbed into the larger scale flow early next week over <br>the southern Plains. Behind this, another deep trough or upper low <br>will move into the West Coast Sunday into Monday, with general <br>indications of a more amplified pattern across the West to Central <br>U.S. next week. <br> <br> <br>...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... <br> <br>Latest guidance continues to show good agreement on the overall <br>pattern progression and dominant features of the medium range <br>period, but with plenty of uncertainty in the details. Two main <br>sources of uncertainty lie with the pair of upper lows through the <br>Western U.S. this weekend and again next week. The first, into <br>southern California on Friday, has shown improved consistency in <br>the timing, but there is variability in the track. Through the <br>12z/18z Feb 24 models, the GFS was notably displaced north of the <br>UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF. The EC-based AI models were also varied and <br>thus suggesting that either placement was plausible. Also, to note, <br>the new 00z runs of the ECMWF and CMC tonight (available after WPC <br>forecast generation time) also trended slightly north. For the <br>second trough early next week, the guidance agrees on its existence <br>but there's considerable uncertainty in the timing and evolution. <br>The ECMWF remains on the faster side, with the trough over the <br>Central U.S. by next Tuesday. The GFS, however, still has the <br>trough over the West by that time. The CMC seemed a nice middle <br>ground solution. Ensemble means generally sided with their <br>deterministic counterparts, but with slightly less longitudinal <br>spread. <br> <br>The WPC blend for tonight used a multi-model blend the first few <br>days of the period, transitioning to a non-GFS and heavily weighted <br>ensemble mean blend by Day 7. <br> <br> <br>...Weather/Hazards Highlights... <br> <br>A clipper system should bring a round of precipitation to the <br>Great Lakes and Northeast Friday into Saturday, with moderate <br>snowfall possibly enhanced by the lake waters across the upper <br>Great Lakes, with mixed precipitation just to the south. A period <br>of strong and gusty winds can also be expected on Friday across the <br>northern Plains and perhaps into Saturday near the Great Lakes on <br>the back-side of the system as cold air rushes in behind it. <br> <br>A building ridge should keep conditions quiet and dry across the <br>West into Friday. The southern stream upper low moving across <br>southern California Friday and inland next weekend may lead to <br>light showers over California, the Southwest, and into the south- <br>central U.S., with increasing rain chances in the southern Plains <br>by next Sunday as moisture increases. There appears to be a better <br>signal for the precipitation to spread farther east/northeast <br>across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The northern stream <br>trough moving through the eastern Pacific and into the West next <br>weekend will also bring precipitation back into the forecast for <br>the West Coast and Great Basin and spreading inland. <br> <br>Much above normal temperatures will be well established by <br>Thursday across the West and into the northern/central Plains. The <br>greatest anomalies will be across the Plains with daytime highs 20 <br>to locally 30 degrees above normal, with 60s for highs as far north <br>as Nebraska or perhaps even South Dakota. The above normal <br>temperatures will spread south and east, with the West trending <br>cooler by early next week. Across the East, temperatures will vary <br>between normal and above normal into Saturday, but may be below <br>normal Sunday into Monday as troughing is most established. <br> <br> <br>Santorelli <br> <br> <br>Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC <br>medium range hazards outlook chart at: <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php</a></u></a> <br> <br>WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, <br>quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall <br>outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat <br>indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: <br> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml</a></u></a> <br><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw"><u><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw" target="_blank">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw</a></u></a> <br> </div> </div> <a onclick="javascript:displaylinks('dlinks-med')" href="javascript:;"> &#43; Additional Links</a> <div id="dlinks-med" style="display: none"> <ul class="linkslist"> <li>&#187; <a href="/archives/web_pages/medr/get_medr_products.php" alt="Product Archive">Product Archive</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/medr/about_medr.shtml" alt="Product Info">Product Info</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif" alt="Product Info">Day 3-7 Surface Composite</a></li> <li>&#187; <a href="/medr/medr.shtml" alt="Other Products">Other Medium Range Products</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="product-content-new" id="tls"> <!--'Toolbox' tab --> <div id='content-tls' class='display-content-max'> <div class='display-text'> <div class="display-title">Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)</div>&nbsp; <!-- In-House Tools --> <div class="collab-block2"> <div class="collab-block2-title">Tools Generated at WPC</div> <div class="collab-tools-disclaim"> These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due to workstation failure and/or data unavailability. </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rainfallreports" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/Experimental_intense_rainfall.PNG' alt='Prototype Weather in Context' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions. Includes ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format. </div> </div> </a> <a href="./exper/gefs/gefs.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">GEFS Probabilities</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/gefsprobs.png' alt='GEFS Probs' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure exceeding various thresholds.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="./exper/lsr/lsr.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Local Storm Reports</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/lsr.png' alt='Local Storm Reports' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant information from storm spotters.</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="/qpf/epm/extreme_precip_monitor.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Extreme Precipitation Monitor</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='/para/para_images/epm_exper_staticimage.png' alt='Extreme Precipitation Monitor' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The climatological significance is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="http://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Ensemble Situational Awareness Table</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/esat.png' alt='ESAT' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles, and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required to view ECMWF data). <p>*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem. </p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">NDFD Forecast Temperature Records</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/ndfdrecords_example.png' alt='NDFD Records' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="/exper/ndfdmxmn/map.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/ndfd_maxmin_departure.gif' alt='NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their respective departures from climatology. </div> </div> </a> <a href="/snowbands/view.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/MTD_example.png' alt='Prototype Snowband Probability Forecasts' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>An interactive tool that depicts areas of heavy snowfall from individual members of high-resolution short range ensemble forecasts. </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="/hmt/weather_in_context/prototype/index.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Weather in Context Prototype</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/wxincontext_staticimage.PNG' alt='Prototype Weather in Context' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking event is possible. This tool is available for both CONUS and Alaska. </div> </div> </a> <a href="/lowclusters/lowclusters.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Automated Forecast Low Clusters</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='/lowclusters/lowclusters_latest.png' alt='Latest Automated Forecast Low Clusters' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Displays 0-72 hour cyclone forecast positions from global ensemble and deterministic model guidance. </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="./exper/change/change.html" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">1/3/6/24-hr Changes</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./exper/change/tmpf_latest_24_us.gif' alt='1/3/4/24-hr Changes' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Experimental HeatRisk</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/images/HeatRisk_example.png' alt='HeatRisk Map' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts available out through 7 days. </div> </div> </a> </div> <!-- <a href="" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">NDFD Forecast Temperature Records (Coming Soon!)</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/records.png' alt='NDFD Records' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records within the contiguous U.S. (based on NDFD temperature forecasts)</p> </div> </div> </a> --> </div> <!--Tools outside WPC --> <div class="collab-block2"> <div class="collab-block2-title">Other Favorite Forecast Tools</div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">CIPS Guidance</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/cips.png' alt='CIPS Guidance' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that are similar to the upcoming forecast.</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">National Blend of Models</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/nblend.png' alt='National Blend' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">Atmospheric River Portal</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/cw3e_arportal.png' alt='AR Portal' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes.</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">GEFS Plumes</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/gefs.png' alt='GEFS Plumes' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a point.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> <div id="tools" class="collab-tools-content"> <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border-right"> <div class="collab-tools-title">SPC Forecast Tools</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_images/spctools.png' alt='SPC Tools' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).</p> </div> </div> </a> <a href="https://ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts" target="_blank"> <div class="collab-tools-border"> <div class="collab-tools-title">ECMWF Forecast Charts</div> <div class="collab-tools-image"> <img class='collab-tools-image-logo' src='./para/para_includes/collaboration/ecmwf.png' alt='ECMWF' /> </div> <div class="collab-tools-des"> <p>Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium range deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.</p> </div> </div> </a> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <script src="para/para_includes/activatables.js" type="text/javascript"></script> <script type="text/javascript"> activatables('page', ['ovw','sfc','frt', 'qpf', 'ero' , 'wwx', 'med', 'tls'])</script> </div> </div> <!--end div content--> </div> <!--end div center--> <!--WPC Social Media Newsfeed--> <div class="socialmedia-content"> <div id="fb-root"></div> <div class='socialmedia-twitter'> <a class="twitter-timeline" 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