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name="description" content="Don't Do That: The Problem With NFL Analytics - 11/26/2024"><meta name="keywords" content="With the NFL season just past the halfway point, in this week's edition I'm updating version of a column I wrote last season on NFL Analytics. Over the past few years, one the more controversial aspects of NFL football games is the idea of going for it on fourth down … 11/26/2024"><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary"><meta name="twitter:site" content="@mediapost"><meta name="twitter:url" content="https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/401444/dont-do-that-the-problem-with-nfl-analytics.html"><meta name="twitter:title" content="Research Intelligencer: Don't Do That: The Problem With NFL Analytics"><meta name="twitter:description" content="With the NFL season just past the halfway point, in this week's edition I'm updating version of a column I wrote last season on NFL Analytics. Over the past few years, one the more controversial aspects of NFL football games is the idea of going for it on fourth down when a team needs two or three (sometimes more) yards for a first down. The reason? Something called "analytics," which has upended decades of NFL truism and tradition. This analysis takes a look at how the ESPN analytics model works as it relates to recommending whether to go for it on fourth down, attempt a field goal, or punt. Different teams use their own analytics models, but they likely contain many of the same elements - as evidenced by the common refrain that "analytics says go for it." I haven't heard any broadcaster or analyst (or coach) say that analytics says don't go for it on fourth-and-one or two."><meta name="twitter:image" content="https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.mediapost.com/dam/cropped/2024/11/26/screenshot-2024-11-26-at-10657-pm_PYtsdHR.png"><meta property="fb:admins" content="503855435" /><meta property="fb:admins" content="500591163" /><meta property="og:url" content="https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/401444/dont-do-that-the-problem-with-nfl-analytics.html" /><meta property="og:title" content="Don't Do That: The Problem With NFL Analytics" /><meta property="og:description" content="With the NFL season just past the halfway point, in this week's edition I'm updating version of a column I wrote last season on NFL Analytics. Over the past few years, one the more controversial aspects of NFL football games is the idea of going for it on fourth down when a team needs two or three (sometimes more) yards for a first down. The reason? Something called "analytics," which has upended decades of NFL truism and tradition. This analysis takes a look at how the ESPN analytics model works as it relates to recommending whether to go for it on fourth down, attempt a field goal, or punt. Different teams use their own analytics models, but they likely contain many of the same elements - as evidenced by the common refrain that "analytics says go for it." 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border-bottom-color: grey; border-bottom-style: solid;"><h1 style="font-family: 'Open Sans Condensed', Arial Narrow, sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:2.4em;text-align:center;line-height:.9em; padding-bottom:6px;">Become a free MediaPost member now to read this article</h1><ul><li>Unlimited articles every day</li><li>Keep up-to-date with media, marketing and advertising news</li><li>Invitations to exclusive industry events and research</li></ul><p style="text-align:center;" id="aw-url"></p></div><span><form action="/login/?next=/publications/article/401444/dont-do-that-the-problem-with-nfl-analytics.html" method="POST"><div style='display:none'><input type="hidden" name="csrfmiddlewaretoken" value="XpxP0ZfhNrI4MHyyXEjksFmAYNjBE9i0pSxbsqyEr89g27gkTS2Kn6FN214iTH3r"></div><p style="font-size:12px;">Log in if you are already a member</p><p style="font-size:12px;"><label for="id-username">Username</label>   <input id="id-username" tabindex="1" name="username" title="username" type="text" /></p><p style="font-size:12px;"><label for="id-password">Password</label>   <input id="id-password" tabindex="2" name="password" title="password" type="password" /><span style="padding:8px 0;">  <a href="/password-reset/" style="text-decoration:underline;">Forgot?</a></span></p><span class="" style="font-size:12px;"><input value="Sign in" tabindex="3" type="submit"></span></form></span></span></div></div></div></div></div><div class="row"><div id="article_news" class="col-md-8"><div class="header"><div><img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.mediapost.com/publications/images/premium-slug.gif"></div><a href="/publications/research-intelligencer/" id="header_article_research-intelligencer?v=3"><img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/static.mediapost.com/publications/images/headers2/article-research-intelligencer.png" alt=""></a></div></div></div><div class="row" ><div class="col-md-8"><div id="article_headline" class="col-md-11"><h3>Commentary</h3><h1 id="title">Don't Do That: The Problem With NFL Analytics</h1></div><div id="article_body"><div id="article_body_main" class="col-md-11 " ><ul id="mcs"><li id="meta-in"> by <a onclick="ga('send', 'event', 'article', 'click', 'author', 1);" rel="author" href="/publications/author/2979/steve-sternberg/">Steve Sternberg</a> , Featured Columnist, November 26, 2024 </li></ul><div style="filter:blur(3px);"><img class='img-responsive' src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.mediapost.com/dam/cropped/2024/11/26/screenshot-2024-11-26-at-10657-pm_PYtsdHR.png" /></p><p>With the NFL season just past the halfway point, in <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.mediapost.com/uploads/TheSternbergReport205.pdf">this week's edition</a> I'm updating version of a column I wrote last season on NFL Analytics. Over the past few years, one the more controversial aspects of NFL football games is the idea of going for it on fourth down …</p></div><hr/><p style="font-style:italic;"><strong>Reminder:</strong> You are seeing this premium content because you are a subscriber to MediaPost's Research Intelligencer and/or a member of the <a href="/research/cmmr/" target="_blank">Center for Marketing & Media Research</a>. 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