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Subscribe: <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions/rss" title="Posts tagged with predictions"><i class="feedicon"></i></a></span> </h2> <div > <div class="copy" style="float:right;margin-left:10px;margin-bottom:10px;"> <strong>Related tags:</strong><br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/future" rel="tag" target="_self">future</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+future" target="_self">+</a> (24)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/technology" rel="tag" target="_self">Technology</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+Technology" target="_self">+</a> (16)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/futurism" rel="tag" target="_self">futurism</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+futurism" target="_self">+</a> (11)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/history" rel="tag" target="_self">history</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+history" target="_self">+</a> (10)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/science" rel="tag" target="_self">science</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+science" target="_self">+</a> (10)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/politics" rel="tag" target="_self">politics</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+politics" target="_self">+</a> (9)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/brokenlink" rel="tag" target="_self">brokenlink</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+brokenlink" target="_self">+</a> (8)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/prediction" rel="tag" target="_self">prediction</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+prediction" target="_self">+</a> (7)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/internet" rel="tag" target="_self">internet</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+internet" target="_self">+</a> (7)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/prophecy" rel="tag" target="_self">prophecy</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+prophecy" target="_self">+</a> (6)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/economy" rel="tag" target="_self">economy</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+economy" target="_self">+</a> (5)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/astrology" rel="tag" target="_self">astrology</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+astrology" target="_self">+</a> (5)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/statistics" rel="tag" target="_self">statistics</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+statistics" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/world" rel="tag" target="_self">world</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+world" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/usa" rel="tag" target="_self">usa</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+usa" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/theworldin" rel="tag" target="_self">theworldin</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+theworldin" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/theeconomist" rel="tag" target="_self">theeconomist</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+theeconomist" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/magiceightball" rel="tag" target="_self">magiceightball</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+magiceightball" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/list" rel="tag" target="_self">list</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+list" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/journalism" rel="tag" target="_self">journalism</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+journalism" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/ai" rel="tag" target="_self">ai</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+ai" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/economist" rel="tag" target="_self">economist</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+economist" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/computers" rel="tag" target="_self">Computers</a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions+Computers" target="_self">+</a> (4)<br> <br> <br> <strong>Users that often use this tag:</strong><br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions/96486" target="_self">chavenet</a> (6)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions/20191" target="_self">goodnewsfortheinsane</a> (5)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions/81610" target="_self">filthy light thief</a> (4)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions/18312" target="_self">zarq</a> (3)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions/80649" target="_self">The Whelk</a> (3)<br> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/predictions/1" target="_self">mathowie</a> (2)<br> </div> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/207467/17th-Place-Punxsatawney-Phil" target="_self">17th Place: Punxsatawney Phil</a></h2> <div class="copy post">In honor of Groundhog Day and in the spirit of fun, we pitted groundhogs from all over the United States against each other — and data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information — to see who’s the most accurate. From <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/heritage/stories/grading-groundhogs">Grading the groundhogs</a><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/96486">chavenet</a> on Feb 2, 2025 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/207467/17th-Place-Punxsatawney-Phil" target="_self">12 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/207045/Embrace-the-barbell" target="_self">Embrace the barbell</a></h2> <div class="copy post">Each year, we ask some of the smartest people in journalism and media what they think is coming in the next 12 months. At the end of a trying 2024, here’s what they had to say: <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2025/">Predictions for Journalism, 2025</a>. [Nieman Lab]<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/96486">chavenet</a> on Jan 5, 2025 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/207045/Embrace-the-barbell" target="_self">22 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/206961/Not-exactly-news-and-not-exactly-real-at-least-not-yet" target="_self">Not exactly news and not exactly real – at least not yet</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="https://www.home.saxo/insights/news-and-research/thought-leadership/outrageous-predictions">Outrageous Predictions 2025</a> [Saxo Bank; <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/189640/Outrageous-Predictions-for-2021">previously</a>] <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/206961/Not-exactly-news-and-not-exactly-real-at-least-not-yet" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/96486">chavenet</a> on Dec 31, 2024 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/206961/Not-exactly-news-and-not-exactly-real-at-least-not-yet" target="_self">8 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/205231/Your-ideas-are-intriguing-to-me-and-I-wish-to-subscribe-to-your-newsle" target="_self">“Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your Newsletter"</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/simpsons-future-predictions-accurate-1140775/">‘The Simpsons’: 34 Times the Fox Comedy Successfully Predicted the Future</a> or, <a href="https://collider.com/predictions-the-simpsons-came-true/">50 Predictions From 'The Simpsons' That Came True</a> or, <a href="https://discover.hubpages.com/entertainment/simpsons-predictions-for-is-insane">The Simpsons 17 Predictions for 2024 Is Insane!</a>. However, don't forget <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/z6svdnb">The Simpsons conspiracy theories that AREN’T TRUE</a> including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/false-simpsons-prediction-resurfaces-after-trump-shooting-2024-07-14/">False ‘Simpsons’ prediction resurfaces after Trump shooting</a><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/96486">chavenet</a> on Aug 26, 2024 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/205231/Your-ideas-are-intriguing-to-me-and-I-wish-to-subscribe-to-your-newsle" target="_self">5 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/205221/No-sense-in-being-pessimistic-It-wouldnt-work-anyway" target="_self">“No sense in being pessimistic. It wouldn't work anyway.”</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="https://newsletter.pessimistsarchive.org/">Pessimists Archive</a> is a project to jog our collective memories about the hysteria, technophobia and moral panic that often greets new technologies, ideas and trends. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/205221/No-sense-in-being-pessimistic-It-wouldnt-work-anyway" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/96486">chavenet</a> on Aug 26, 2024 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/205221/No-sense-in-being-pessimistic-It-wouldnt-work-anyway" target="_self">17 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/204611/All-Correlations-Are-Bastards" target="_self">All Correlations Are Bastards</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><em>This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. Out-of-sample accuracy is strikingly high: of the 500 people with the highest predicted risk, almost 13 percent are shot within 18 months, a rate 128 times higher than the average Chicagoan. A central concern is that algorithms may “bake in” bias found in police data, overestimating risk for people likelier to interact with police conditional on their behavior. We show that Black male victims more often have enough police contact to generate predictions. But those predictions are not, on average, inflated; the demographic composition of predicted and actual shooting victims is almost identical. There are legal, ethical, and practical barriers to using these predictions to target law enforcement. But using them to target social services could have enormous preventive benefits: predictive accuracy among the top 500 people justifies spending up to $134,400 per person for an intervention that could cut the probability of being shot by half.</em> from <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w30170">Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It</a> [NBER; direct link to <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30170/w30170.pdf">working paper (PDF)</a>]<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/96486">chavenet</a> on Jul 12, 2024 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/204611/All-Correlations-Are-Bastards" target="_self">47 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/203138/Tomorrows-World" target="_self">Tomorrow's World</a></h2> <div class="copy post">From the BBC Archives: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xS8xX3usi4c">Schoolchildren in 1966 Predict Life in the Year 2000</a> [6:17] <blockquote>"If something's gone wrong with their nuclear bombs, I may be sort of coming back from hunting in a cave." "I don't like the idea of sort of getting up and finding you've got a cabbage pill to eat for breakfast or something." "Computers are taking over now, computers and automation. And in the year 2000, there just won't be enough jobs to go around, and the only jobs there will be will be for people with high IQ who can work computers and such things, and other people are just not going to have jobs." "I don't think I'll still be on Earth. I think I'll be under the sea."</blockquote> [<a href="https://tildes.net/~life/1f7i/children_predict_the_year_2000_1966_video#comment-cdhh">transcript</a>, via Tildes] <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/203138/Tomorrows-World" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/62135">Rhaomi</a> on Mar 31, 2024 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/203138/Tomorrows-World" target="_self">5 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/200188/If-you-dont-make-predictions-youll-never-know-what-to-be-surprised-by" target="_self">If you don’t make predictions, you’ll never know what to be surprised by</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/long-boom-predictions-wired/">The Curse of the Long Boom</a> (wired)<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/11806">signal</a> on Aug 2, 2023 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/200188/If-you-dont-make-predictions-youll-never-know-what-to-be-surprised-by" target="_self">23 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/197882/I-Want-Pictures-Pictures-of-Tomorrow" target="_self">I Want Pictures, Pictures of Tomorrow</a></h2> <div class="copy post">At the end of every year, NiemanLab asks for predictions about the coming year of journalism from those in the know. <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2023/">Here's the latest batch predicting 2023.</a> And here's the previous efforts: <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2022/">2022</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2021/">2021</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2020/">2020</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2019/">2019</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2018/">2018</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2017/">2017</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2016/">2016</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2015/">2015</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2014/">2014</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2013/">2013</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2012/">2012</a> <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2011/">2011</a> (<a href="https://www.metafilter.com/189832/slaps-roof-this-Nieman-Lab-can-fit-so-many-predictions">previously</a>-<a href="https://www.metafilter.com/184885/Journalistic-crystal-ball-gazing">ly</a>-<a href="https://www.metafilter.com/155902/Nieman-Labs-Crowdsourced">ly</a>-<a href="https://www.metafilter.com/98570/Universal-instant-transcription">ly</a>)<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/123103">BiggerJ</a> on Jan 9, 2023 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/197882/I-Want-Pictures-Pictures-of-Tomorrow" target="_self">2 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/192952/a-kind-of-tangible-curiosity-that-statistics-encourages" target="_self">"a kind of tangible curiosity that statistics encourages"</a></h2> <div class="copy post">"one of my co-workers had a tortoise called Pietro who could supposedly predict the weather ... I pondered how one might go about rigorously evaluating this claim". Conner Jackson <a href="https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1740-9713.01566?af=R">collects and analyses data</a> on the accuracy of weather prediction by Pietro the tortoise. The Royal Statistical Society <a href="https://rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2021/general-news/pietro-the-weather-tortoise-wins-early-career-writ">explains</a> why the article won their early-career writing award. Pietro's <a href="https://www.instagram.com/weather_tort_not">Instagram account</a>. Other weather-forecasting tortoises include <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/124684794/battle-of-the-winter-forecasts-niwa-v-herman-the-tortoise">Herman</a> in New Zealand.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/39799">paduasoy</a> on Oct 15, 2021 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/192952/a-kind-of-tangible-curiosity-that-statistics-encourages" target="_self">6 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/189877/Bernie-will-be-the-Dem-nominee-the-GOP-will-retake-the-House-and-2020" target="_self">Bernie will be the Dem nominee, the GOP will retake the House </a></h2> <div class="copy post">Everything we know remains wrong. Politico's <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/29/worst-predictions-about-2020-451444">Worst Predictions of 2020</a> is always an infuriatingly amusing read -- this year more so than ever. <br><br>Scott Adams, Gianno Caldwell, James Carville, Mick Mulvaney, Paul Begala, Richard Epstein, Maxine Waters, Fortune Magazine, Jesse Watters, Nancy Pelosi, Hugh Hewitt, BD Holly, Mike Pence, Elon Musk, Karl Rove, Adam Parkhomenko, Kayleigh McEnany, Jeanne Pirro, Rachel Maddow, Ted Cruz, Greg Locke, Angus King, Dr. Irwin Redlener, Bernie Sanders, Helmut Norpoth, Amy Siskind, Kristin B. Tate, Carl Beijer, Brad Parscale, Scott Walker, and of course, Donald f***ing Trump -- y'all need to retire your crystal balls. </break></break><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/78390">philip-random</a> on Dec 29, 2020 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/189877/Bernie-will-be-the-Dem-nominee-the-GOP-will-retake-the-House-and-2020" target="_self">82 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/187181/Dreaming-of-the-CE-2000-the-Year-Formerly-Known-as-the-Future" target="_self">Dreaming of the CE 2000, the Year Formerly Known as the Future</a></h2> <div class="copy post">People were dreaming of what the year 2000 might hold for well over a century, including illustrator and futurist <a href="http://www.robida.info/">Albert Robida</a> (French fan site; <a href="https://archive.org/search.php?query=%28%28subject%3A%22Robida%2C%20Albert%22%20OR%20subject%3A%22Albert%20Robida%22%20OR%20creator%3A%22Robida%2C%20Albert%22%20OR%20creator%3A%22Albert%20Robida%22%20OR%20creator%3A%22Robida%2C%20A%2E%22%20OR%20title%3A%22Albert%20Robida%22%20OR%20description%3A%22Robida%2C%20Albert%22%20OR%20description%3A%22Albert%20Robida%22%29%20OR%20%28%221848-1926%22%20AND%20Robida%29%29%20AND%20%28-mediatype:software%29">works digitized on Internet Archive</a>), whose <a href="https://vsemart.com/french-artist-predictor-albert-robida/">illustrations and ideas seemed to foretell the future</a> (Art Kaleidoscope / vsemart.com). Many focused on <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/93830/ornithopters-over-Pearl-Harbor">his visions of future wars</a> (previously), but he also <a href="https://publicdomainreview.org/collection/leaving-the-opera-in-the-year-2000">had a view of leaving the opera by air in 2000</a>, as displayed and described by Public Domain Review, who also have <a href="https://publicdomainreview.org/collection/a-19th-century-vision-of-the-year-2000">a collection of other 19th century French visions of the year 2000</a>. But now, looking back 20 years might be a bit of a future-past shock. <a href="https://medium.com/@davidbauer/2000-the-year-formerly-known-as-the-future-cbd6bdc6b283">2000, the Year Formerly Known as the Future</a> (Medium.com).<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/81610">filthy light thief</a> on May 22, 2020 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/187181/Dreaming-of-the-CE-2000-the-Year-Formerly-Known-as-the-Future" target="_self">4 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/184885/Journalistic-crystal-ball-gazing" target="_self">Journalistic crystal ball gazing</a></h2> <div class="copy post">At the end of every year, NiemanLab asks "some of the smartest people we know" to provide predictions about what's ahead for journalism in the next year. <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2020/">Here's this year's crop.</a> (90 posts so far, more are still being added.) <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/184885/Journalistic-crystal-ball-gazing" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/7961">beagle</a> on Dec 30, 2019 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/184885/Journalistic-crystal-ball-gazing" target="_self">5 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/178533/Isaac-Asimovs-view-of-the-future-of-2019-and-the-fight-of-man-vs-robot" target="_self">Isaac Asimov's view of the future of 2019, and the fight of man vs robot</a></h2> <div class="copy post">35 years ago, Isaac Asimov was asked by the Toronto Star to predict the world of 2019. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/12/27/35-years-ago-isaac-asimov-was-asked-by-the-star-to-predict-the-world-of-2019-here-is-what-he-wrote.html">Here is what he wrote</a> (The Star, Dec. 27, 2018) <a href="https://bigthink.com/technology-innovation/isaac-asimov-future-predictions-from-1983">Here's what he got right (and wrong).</a> -- <em>Some of them were surprisingly astute.</em> (Stephen Johnson for Big Think). Spoilers: accurate predictions about computerization, optimistic about education, environment, and space utilization. Also, his views of an automated workplace were both forward-looking and dated; see: <a href="https://lordstownsyndrome.wordpress.com/about/">Lordstown Syndrome</a>, <a href="http://lordstownsyndrome.tumblr.com/post/16409649629/management-is-also-becoming-aware-that-young">a term coined in 1972</a>. <a href="https://www.autonews.com/article/20080914/ANA03/809150303/lordstown-man-vs-machine-and-gm-was-the-big-loser">Lordstown: Man vs. machine -- and GM was the big loser</a>, recapped as "worker rebellion, including sabotage of products" by Harry Stoffer for Auto News in 2008. Except GM still hasn't learned: <a href="https://qz.com/1510405/gms-layoffs-can-be-traced-to-its-quest-to-turn-people-into-machines/">GM’s decline truly began with its quest to turn people into machines</a> (Gwynn Guilford for Quartz, Dec. 30, 2018)<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/81610">filthy light thief</a> on Jan 1, 2019 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/178533/Isaac-Asimovs-view-of-the-future-of-2019-and-the-fight-of-man-vs-robot" target="_self">21 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/178470/Fear-prophets-and-those-prepared-to-die-for-the-truth" target="_self">“Fear prophets and those prepared to die for the truth“</a></h2> <div class="copy post">“The mysterious 8chan poster known as “Q” promised on multiple occasions that “2018 will be GLORIOUS.” For people who genuinely believe that Q is a government insider close to President Trump, that “glory” was supposed to come in the form of mass arrests of some equally dramatic event that would expose the so-called “deep state.” But even as QAnon community broke into mainstream awareness, vindication remained elusive.” <a href="https://contemptor.com/2018/12/28/the-year-in-q-2018-was-hilariously-frustrating-for-qanon-followers/">The Year In Q</a> (The Contemplator) “2018 was a year in which right-wing pundits and self-proclaimed “prophets” made a variety of predictions and proclamations that never came true“ <a href="http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/2018-the-year-in-false-prophesies-and-failed-predictions/">2018: The Year in False Prophesies and Failed Predictions</a> (Right Wing Watch)<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/80649">The Whelk</a> on Dec 29, 2018 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/178470/Fear-prophets-and-those-prepared-to-die-for-the-truth" target="_self">56 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/168868/Technology-adoption-swerve" target="_self">Technology adoption swerve</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/8-lessons-from-20-years-hype-cycles-michael-mullany">8 lessons from 20 years of Hype Cycles</a> looks at how Gartner's predictions of upcoming tech panned out.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/63452">a snickering nuthatch</a> on Aug 16, 2017 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/168868/Technology-adoption-swerve" target="_self">51 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/163817/What-your-social-media-news-feed-could-look-like-if-things-go-wrong" target="_self">What your social-media news feed could look like if things go wrong</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/pessimists-guide-to-2017/">The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017.</a> Donald Trump and Brexit shocked most of the world in 2016. But not readers of last year’s Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide, which warned that the unthinkable could happen in both cases. Now the authors are turning their attention to 2017. (SLBBW)<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/23588">slogger</a> on Dec 6, 2016 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/163817/What-your-social-media-news-feed-could-look-like-if-things-go-wrong" target="_self">105 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/160945/Wheres-my-jetpack" target="_self">Where's my jetpack?</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://gizmodo.com/42-visions-for-tomorrow-from-the-golden-age-of-futurism-1683553063">42 Visions For Tomorrow From The Golden Age of Futurism</a> — selected panels from <a href="http://arthur-radebaugh.blogspot.com/p/about-arthur-radebaugh.html">Arthur Radebaugh's</a> late 1950s-early 60s newspaper comic strip <a href="http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-futuristic-comic-that-turned-the-sunday-funnies-int-1740517422"><em>Closer Than We Think</em></a>. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/160945/Wheres-my-jetpack" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/92137">Johnny Wallflower</a> on Jul 13, 2016 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/160945/Wheres-my-jetpack" target="_self">21 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/159250/In-the-Year-Two-Thouuuusaaaaaaaannnnnd" target="_self">In the Year Two Thouuuusaaaaaaaannnnnd</a></h2> <div class="copy post">In 1939, some American fashion designers got together and designed the clothes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvtxFFj6eDY"> (1 minute, 14 seconds) </a> they thought the well-dressed woman (and one man) would be wearing in 2000.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/534">julen</a> on May 5, 2016 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/159250/In-the-Year-Two-Thouuuusaaaaaaaannnnnd" target="_self">33 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/155987/It-is-difficult-to-make-predictions-especially-about-the-future" target="_self">"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/pessimists-guide-to-2016/">A Pessimist's Guide To 2016</a> - By Flavia Krause-Jackson, Mira Rojanasakul, and John Fraher, <i>Bloomberg Business</i> <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/155987/It-is-difficult-to-make-predictions-especially-about-the-future" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/140999">the man of twists and turns</a> on Jan 1, 2016 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/155987/It-is-difficult-to-make-predictions-especially-about-the-future" target="_self">16 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/155902/Nieman-Labs-Crowdsourced" target="_self">Nieman Lab's Crowdsourced</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/collection/predictions-2016/">Predictions for Journalism 2016</a> <br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/23476">infini</a> on Dec 29, 2015 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/155902/Nieman-Labs-Crowdsourced" target="_self">50 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/153008/20-Mistakes-Into-the-Future" target="_self">20 Mistakes Into the Future</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://nautil.us/issue/28/2050/why-futurism-has-a-cultural-blindspot">Why Futurism Has a Cultural Blindspot</a>, or "We predicted cell phones, but not women in the workplace" by Tom Vanderbilt (<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/contribute/search.mefi?site=mefi&q=tom+vanderbilt">previously</a>)<br> from Nautilus Magazine's <a href="http://nautil.us/issue/28/2050/2050">"2050"</a> issue, which also features <a href="http://nautil.us/issue/28/2050/the-book-no-one-read">Lee Billings on Stanislaw Lem's futurism</a> and <a href="http://nautil.us/issue/28/2050/this-used-to-be-the-future">Rachel B. Sussman visiting NASA’s Ames Research Center</a><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/20007">oneswellfoop</a> on Sep 15, 2015 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/153008/20-Mistakes-Into-the-Future" target="_self">32 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/145901/In-the-2000s-there-will-be-only-answers" target="_self">In the 2000s, there will be only answers.</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://fusion.net/story/36636/in-the-2000s-there-will-be-only-answers/">"We will have screens everywhere, in the kitchen, in the restrooms, in the office, in the streets."</a> Marguerite Duras was asked in 1985 what she thought the future would be like. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/145901/In-the-2000s-there-will-be-only-answers" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/215131">Gin and Broadband</a> on Jan 6, 2015 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/145901/In-the-2000s-there-will-be-only-answers" target="_self">42 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/145414/2015-Flashpoints-Abound" target="_self">2015: Flashpoints Abound</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-flash-points/">A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2015.</a> Skirmishes in the South China Sea lead to full-scale naval confrontation. Israel bombs Iran, setting off an escalation of violence across the Middle East. Nigeria crumbles as oil prices fall and radicals gain strength. Bloomberg News asked foreign policy analysts, military experts, economists and investors to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2015. [Bleah interface; interesting content.]<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/16521">ZenMasterThis</a> on Dec 17, 2014 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/145414/2015-Flashpoints-Abound" target="_self">33 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/145314/What-Happened-to-the-Future-Leaders-of-the-1990s" target="_self">What Happened to the ‘Future Leaders’ of the 1990s?</a></h2> <div class="copy post">In its December 5, 1994 issue, Time Magazine picked 50 people who would be leaders in the future. They decided to revisit <a href="http://time.com/3618532/future-leaders-of-the-1990s/">what happened</a> to each person on the 20th anniversary of their predictions.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/44996">reenum</a> on Dec 13, 2014 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/145314/What-Happened-to-the-Future-Leaders-of-the-1990s" target="_self">26 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/141951/Prediction-Winter-is-coming-Pretty-sure" target="_self">Prediction: Winter is coming. Pretty sure.</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><em>I finally gave in and started reading Game of Thrones. When I got to the end of the first chapter, I texted a bunch of my nerd friends like, "Why do people think this is surprising? It is like super-obviously signposted!" From there, it turned into a project where I try to predict what will happen in Game of Thrones.</em> <a href="http://www.laurapetelle.com/p/predicting-game-of-thrones.html">Predicting Game of Thrones</a>, a blog by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/102200">Eyebrows McGee</a>, with an accompanying <a href="http://www.laurapetelle.com/p/a-song-of-ice-and-fire-prediction-log.html">predictions log</a>. NOTE: this is full of spoilers for the first two books, and the first half of Book III (Storm of Swords) will be online soon. Plus any number of theories could come true in the later books. [via <a href='http://projects.metafilter.com/4365/Predicting-Game-of-Thrones'>mefi projects</a>] <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/141951/Prediction-Winter-is-coming-Pretty-sure" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/81610">filthy light thief</a> on Aug 15, 2014 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/141951/Prediction-Winter-is-coming-Pretty-sure" target="_self">90 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/136461/They-say-you-just-have-to-find-a-direction-and-walk" target="_self">They say you just have to find a direction and walk</a></h2> <div class="copy post">"Last week I saw two visions for the future. The first is <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/tags/her">Her</a>...and the other was this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4VRFuSyzzc">Infinity Augmented Reality concept video</a> which had me in fits of laughter because it was so… well, just watch it for yourself. I liked seeing both. However accurate or <a href="http://www.dailydot.com/technology/infinity-augmented-reality-glasses-creep/">ridiculous</a> (and how can we truly know until the future is here?), the act of inventing is what sparks the realities of tomorrow." - <a href="https://medium.com/the-year-of-the-looking-glass/9ce2441beea8">Julie Zhuo imagines The Future.</a><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/80913">Potomac Avenue</a> on Feb 8, 2014 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/136461/They-say-you-just-have-to-find-a-direction-and-walk" target="_self">79 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/136300/Paul-is-Dead-There-will-never-be-another" target="_self">Paul is Dead. There will never be another.</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.salon.com/2014/02/03/animals_did_a_really_poor_job_of_predicting_the_seahawks_super_bowl_win/">Every psychic animal dreams of claiming the throne vacated by the late Paul the Octopus. Super Bowl XLVIII crushed many of those dreams.</a> Especially disappointing was the fall of <a href="http://isurus.mote.org/~hughbuffett/pages/About/about1.hb.phtml">Buffett the Manatee</a> who, from his tank at Sarasota, Florida's Mote Marine Laboratory & Aquarium, had correctly called the last six Super Bowls.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/58791">Naberius</a> on Feb 3, 2014 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/136300/Paul-is-Dead-There-will-never-be-another" target="_self">30 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/135102/and-then-some-clown-invented-the-printed-circuit" target="_self">...and then "some clown invented the printed circuit."</a></h2> <div class="copy post">During the 1950's, <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/89420/He-aimed-for-the-stars-and-often-hit-London">Wernher von</a> <a href="http://history.msfc.nasa.gov/vonbraun/bio.html">Braun</a> served as technical adviser for three space-related television films produced by Disney: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omWRxonewL4"><em>Man in Space</em></a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZImSTxbglI"><em>Man and the Moon</em></a> and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0sbqqYo97s"><em>Mars and Beyond</em></a>. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/135102/and-then-some-clown-invented-the-printed-circuit" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/18312">zarq</a> on Dec 24, 2013 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/135102/and-then-some-clown-invented-the-printed-circuit" target="_self">40 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/134696/Why-the-Web-Wont-Be-Nirvana" target="_self">Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana</a></h2> <div class="copy post">"After two decades online, I'm perplexed. It's not that I haven't had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I've met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I'm uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community. Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic. <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306">Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth [is] no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.</a>" A view of the Internet's future from February 26, 1995 at 7:00 PM<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/90947">Blasdelb</a> on Dec 12, 2013 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/134696/Why-the-Web-Wont-Be-Nirvana" target="_self">40 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/132868/Talkin-Bout-a-Webolution" target="_self">Talkin' Bout a Webolution</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><em>The awkwardly titled [2000] book, "FutureConsumer.com: The webolution of shopping to 2010," touches on everything from music downloads to grocery delivery, with a big emphasis on lists. And it's Feather's list for the 50 largest online retailers of 2010 which now stands as a fascinating time capsule of the first dot-com bubble. <a href="http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253">Naturally, Webvan makes the Top 5.</a></em><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/45762">Horace Rumpole</a> on Oct 15, 2013 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/132868/Talkin-Bout-a-Webolution" target="_self">16 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/132102/It-only-gets-funnier-with-time" target="_self">It only gets funnier with time.</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/books/00/01/30/reviews/000130.30poguet.html">"These discussions</a> are thoughtful and measured, but the premise that frames them all is shaky; Lessig doesn't offer much proof that a Soviet-style loss of privacy and freedom is on its way. … Unlike actual law, Internet software has no capacity to punish. It doesn't affect people who aren't online (and only a tiny minority of the world population is). And if you don't like the Internet's system, you can always flip off the modem." — <i>David Pogue is the creator of the ''Missing Manual'' series, which will include guides to Mac OS 9, Outlook Express and Windows 2000.</i><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/110834">Nomyte</a> on Sep 19, 2013 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/132102/It-only-gets-funnier-with-time" target="_self">39 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/124103/Spoiler-Everyone-Dies" target="_self">Spoiler: Everyone Dies</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future">The Timeline of the Far Future</a> is a Wikipedia article which serves as a gateway to a ton of fascinating scientific topics on the far edge of human understanding: ~50,000 years from now the Earth will enter a new <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glacial_period">Glacial period</a>; ~100,000 years from now the Earth will likely have experienced a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcanic">supervolcanic</a> eruption; ~10,000,000 years from now the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Rift">East African Rift</a> divides the continent of Africa in to two land masses; ~20,000,000,000 years from now the Universe effectively dies due to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Rip">The Big Rip</a>.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/97321">codacorolla</a> on Jan 22, 2013 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/124103/Spoiler-Everyone-Dies" target="_self">90 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/123538/the-end-of-history-illusion" target="_self">the end of history illusion</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/04/science/study-in-science-shows-end-of-history-illusion.html?_r=1&">Why You Won’t Be the Person You Expect to Be</a> <small>(NYT)</small>: "When we remember our past selves, they seem quite different. We know how much our personalities and tastes have changed over the years. But when we look ahead, somehow we expect ourselves to stay the same... They called this phenomenon the “end of history illusion,” in which people tend to “underestimate how much they will change in the future.”" <small>(via <a href="http://exp.lore.com/post/39661069435/when-we-remember-our-past-selves-they-seem-quite">exp.lore</a>)</small> <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/123538/the-end-of-history-illusion" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/109567">flex</a> on Jan 6, 2013 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/123538/the-end-of-history-illusion" target="_self">34 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/121851/Public-Policy-Polling-Do-you-have-enough-Santorum-in-your-life-or-not" target="_self">Public Policy Polling: "Do you have enough Santorum in your life, or not?"</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ppp-poll-questions-public-policy-polling-funny-quirky-obama-romney-2012-11">How Polling Firm PPP Won The Election With Its Hilarious And Infuriating Questions</a>: "Public Policy Polling, the firm that correctly predicted all 50 states in the presidential election, is known for asking some weird, quirky and, sometimes, controversial questions in its polls... Here are some of the firm's best questions of the election cycle." <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/121851/Public-Policy-Polling-Do-you-have-enough-Santorum-in-your-life-or-not" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/109567">flex</a> on Nov 14, 2012 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/121851/Public-Policy-Polling-Do-you-have-enough-Santorum-in-your-life-or-not" target="_self">37 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/121677/WILD-MASS-GUESSING" target="_self">WILD MASS GUESSING</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="https://www.wfs.org/blogs/ptucker/futurist-magazine-releases-its-top-10-forecasts-for-2013-and-beyond">The Futurist Magazine along with The World Future Society predicts the future with a list of the top trends and forecasts for 2013 and beyond.</a> <br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/80649">The Whelk</a> on Nov 9, 2012 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/121677/WILD-MASS-GUESSING" target="_self">53 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/118517/Cliodynamics" target="_self">Cliodynamics</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.eeb.uconn.edu/people/turchin/">Peter Turchin</a> is a Professor of Mathematics, and of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. For the last nine years, he's been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator–prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and using them to model human history -- a pattern identification process he calls <a href="http://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics">Cliodynamics</a>. The goal of cliodynamics (or cliometrics) is <a href="http://cliodynamics.info/">to turn history into a predictive, analytic science.</a> By analysing some of the broad social forces that shape transformative events in US society: historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence, <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078">he has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way, and should peak around 2020</a>. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/118517/Cliodynamics" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/18312">zarq</a> on Aug 2, 2012 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/118517/Cliodynamics" target="_self">60 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/116160/Pantone-color-forecasting" target="_self">Pantone color forecasting</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/design/2012/04/pantone_color_forecasts_are_they_accurate_.single.html">Sneaking Into Pantone HQ</a>: "While the Pantone meetings are traditionally secret, I was invited to the Summer 2013 meeting on the condition that I not reveal the colorists’ identities." (An older, <a href="http://www.jolynclothing.com/cool-little-interview-on-pantone/">brief interview on Pantone forecasts</a>.) For Summer 2013: <a href="http://specialevents.com/decor/Pantone-color-experts-forecast-color-trends-for-summer-2013/">forecast overview</a> - <a href="https://redoitdesign.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/pantone-2013-fantasies-realities-palettes-sneak-peak/">palette descriptions</a> - <a href="https://redoitdesign.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/pantone-2013-home-interiors-color-trends-fantasies-realities-all-9-palettes/">palette colors</a>. (<small>via good.is</small>: <a href="http://www.good.is/post/pantone-s-tangerine-tango-and-the-ethics-of-color-forecasting/">...the Ethics of Color Forecasting</a>)<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/109567">flex</a> on May 21, 2012 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/116160/Pantone-color-forecasting" target="_self">39 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111985/Ron-Paul-Soothsayerinchief" target="_self">Ron Paul, Soothsayer-in-chief</a></h2> <div class="copy post">On April 24 2002, Ron Paul made an <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFLd_H3AZCA&sns=fb">address to the House on his predictions on the results of US domestic and foreign policies</a>, ending with "I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in five to ten years. Let's hope and pray I am wrong on all counts. If so, I will be very pleased." Spoiler: he is probably not pleased.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/78804">ricochet biscuit</a> on Jan 24, 2012 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111985/Ron-Paul-Soothsayerinchief" target="_self">160 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111269/Possibly-also-the-future-of-Metafilter-posts" target="_self">Possibly also the future of Metafilter posts</a></h2> <div class="copy post">We rifled through a bevy of 2012 predictions to bring you <a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/1804821/2012-beyond-a-mega-meta-mashup">the mother of all roundups, every line gleaned from somewhere else.</a><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/76438">twoleftfeet</a> on Jan 4, 2012 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111269/Possibly-also-the-future-of-Metafilter-posts" target="_self">8 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111162/10-things-that-will-happen-in-Canadian-real-estate-in-2012" target="_self">10 things that will happen in Canadian real estate in 2012</a></h2> <div class="copy post">Garth Turner, former Member of Parliament and current entertaining, curmudgeonly, and well-informed Greater Fool blogger about Canadian real estate -- and the world economy generally -- gives <a href="http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/12/31/2012/">his predictions for 2012</a>. The main one, IMO, is the one that he talks about relentlessly in his postings: "Most people won't get it."<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/108304">anothermug</a> on Jan 1, 2012 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111162/10-things-that-will-happen-in-Canadian-real-estate-in-2012" target="_self">30 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111049/2061" target="_self">2061</a></h2> <div class="copy post">On November 22, 2011, TEDxBrussels held an all day event whose theme was: "<a href="http://www.ted.com/tedx/events/2364">A Day in the Deep Future</a>." Speakers were asked to try and contemplate <a href="http://www.tedxbrussels.eu/2011/index.html">what life will be like for mankind in 50 years</a>. <a href="http://tedxbrussels.eu/blog/2011/09/06/tedx-brussels-2011/">Overview</a>. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111049/2061" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/18312">zarq</a> on Dec 28, 2011 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/111049/2061" target="_self">29 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/110191/We-try-and-illustrate-a-universenextdoor-where-the-new-product-is-the-only-novelty-Where-there-is-still-tea-and-the-traffic-is-still-miserable" target="_self">“We try and illustrate a “universe-next-door” where the new product is the only novelty. Where there is still tea, and the traffic is still miserable.”</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://future-drama.tumblr.com/">Future Drama</a> is a tumblr devoted to that particular kind of futurism - corporate prediction demos of how their products will change the world - See <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=X4kp9Ciy1nE">The Mother Of All Demos from 1968 introducing the mouse, video conferencing, teleconferencing, hypertext, word processing</a> - <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3WdS4TscWH8">Apple in 1987</a> - <a href="http://youtu.be/C7hXmab4T1A">Philco-Ford The Future Now!</a><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/80649">The Whelk</a> on Dec 6, 2011 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/110191/We-try-and-illustrate-a-universenextdoor-where-the-new-product-is-the-only-novelty-Where-there-is-still-tea-and-the-traffic-is-still-miserable" target="_self">23 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/102238/The-end-iswas-supposed-to-be-near" target="_self">The end is/was supposed to be near!</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://web.me.com/lorenmadsen/endings/pick_a_year.html">Pick a year</a> to find out when the world should have ended/is ending/will end.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/22905">daninnj</a> on Apr 5, 2011 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/102238/The-end-iswas-supposed-to-be-near" target="_self">30 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/99963/Predictions-for-Publishing-from-Thomas-Edison-and-some-Minds-of-Today" target="_self">Predictions for Publishing, from Thomas Edison and some Minds of Today</a></h2> <div class="copy post">On June 23, 1911, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Miami_Metropolis"><em>The Miami Metropolis</em></a> published <a href="http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2011/1/18/edisons-predictions-for-the-year-2011-1911.html">predictions about the year 2011 from Thomas Edison</a>, including his visions of transmuting metals, a world of light-weight steel products, and writings printed on leaves of nickel that would be "so light to hold that the reader can enjoy a small library in a single volume." In Edison's future of today, five authors and an editor/publisher <a href="http://www.sfsignal.com/archives/2011/01/mind-meld-the-future-of-publishing/">envision the world of publishing in the year 2021</a>. Spoiler: nickel is not mentioned once. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/99963/Predictions-for-Publishing-from-Thomas-Edison-and-some-Minds-of-Today" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/81610">filthy light thief</a> on Jan 27, 2011 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/99963/Predictions-for-Publishing-from-Thomas-Edison-and-some-Minds-of-Today" target="_self">15 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/98591/The-not-so-far-yet-neither-so-near-past" target="_self">The not so far, yet neither so near, past.</a></h2> <div class="copy post">A lawfirm perusing the New York Times archives has examined how physician W. J. Mayo, famed industrialist Henry Ford, anatomist and anthropologist Arthur Keith, physicist and Nobel laureate Arthur Compton, chemist Willis R. Whitney, physicist and Nobel laureate Robert Millikan, physicist and chemist Michael Pupin, and sociologist William F. Ogburn foresaw <a href="http://www.abnormaluse.com/2010/12/views-of-2011-from-1931.html">the year 2011</a> from the year 1931, with commentary. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/98591/The-not-so-far-yet-neither-so-near-past" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/37232">1f2frfbf</a> on Dec 15, 2010 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/98591/The-not-so-far-yet-neither-so-near-past" target="_self">13 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/97574/Kaggle" target="_self">Kaggle</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://kaggle.com/">Kaggle</a> hosts competitions to glean information from massive data sets, a la <a href="http://www.netflixprize.com/">the Netflix Prize</a>. Competitors can enter free, while companies with vast stores of impenetrable data pay Kaggle to outsource their difficulties to the world population of freelance data-miners. Kaggle contestants <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2010/08/more_forecastin.html">have already developed dozens of chess rating systems which outperform the Elo rating currently in use</a>, and <a href="http://kaggle.com/blog/2010/08/09/how-i-won-the-hiv-progression-prediction-data-mining-competition/">identified genetic markers in HIV associated with a rise in viral load</a>. Right now, you can compete to <a href="http://kaggle.com/tourism2">forecast tourism statistics</a> or <a href="http://kaggle.com/socialNetwork">predict unknown edges in a social network</a>. Teachers who want to pit their students against each other <a href="http://inclass.kaggle.com/">can host a Kaggle contest free of charge</a>.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/21049">escabeche</a> on Nov 13, 2010 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/97574/Kaggle" target="_self">10 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/94724/Meet-aliens-create-life-watch-the-polar-ice-melt" target="_self">Meet aliens, create life, watch the polar ice melt</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=interactive-12-events">12 Events that Will Change Everything</a> is an interactive article from Scientific American that offers rich information on potential major discoveries or cataclysms that could change the world, as well as their chances of happening. The list is a surprisingly sane look at future discontinuities as these sorts of lists go: it includes human cloning, artificial life, asteroid collisions, ice caps melting, and room temperature superconductors. For less sanity, see fifty or so ways the world could end at <a href="http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm">Exit Mundi</a>.<br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/19263">blahblahblah</a> on Aug 13, 2010 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/94724/Meet-aliens-create-life-watch-the-polar-ice-melt" target="_self">50 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/93393/Probability-of-Shoreline-Threat" target="_self">Probability of Shoreline Threat</a></h2> <div class="copy post">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (<a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/">NOAA</a>) have <a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100702_longterm.html">released</a> their latest models/scenarios ("<i>based on several simplifying assumptions</i>") of the <a href="http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/dwh.php?entry_id=815">BP spill's impact on coastlines</a> <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/93393/Probability-of-Shoreline-Threat" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/49346">griphus</a> on Jul 2, 2010 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/93393/Probability-of-Shoreline-Threat" target="_self">24 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <h2 class="posttitle"><a href="http://www.metafilter.com/93055/Will-you-still-need-me-will-you-still-feed-me-when-Im-64" target="_self">Will you still need me, will you still feed me, when I'm 64?</a></h2> <div class="copy post"><a href="http://in20years.com">In 20 Years ...</a> Upload a photo of yourself and the site produces a predictive illustration of what you'll look like in 20 or 30 years. And as an added bonus, you can toggle whether you're a drug addict or not. <span class="smallcopy">[<a href="http://www.metafilter.com/93055/Will-you-still-need-me-will-you-still-feed-me-when-Im-64" target="_self">more inside</a>]</span><br> <span class="smallcopy postbyline"> posted by <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/user/2975">crunchland</a> on Jun 21, 2010 - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/93055/Will-you-still-need-me-will-you-still-feed-me-when-Im-64" target="_self">112 comments</a> </span> </div><br> <div class="copy paging chromeleft">Page: <span class="this-page">1</span> <a href="/tags/predictions?page=2" target="_self">2</a> <a href="/tags/predictions?page=3" target="_self">3</a> </div> </div> </div> <br clear="all"> <div id="footer"> <div style="width:20%;float:left;"><div class="footpad"> <p><strong>Features</strong></p> - <a href="https://login.metafilter.com/" target="_self">Login</a><br> - <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/newuser.mefi" target="_self">New User</a> </div></div> <div style="width:20%;float:left;"><div class="footpad"> <p><strong>Links</strong></p> - <a href="/" target="_self">Home</a><br> - <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/guidelines.mefi" target="_self">Guidelines</a><br> - <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/content_policy.mefi" target="_self">Content Policy</a><br> - <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/privacy/" target="_self">Privacy Policy</a><br> - <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/board-rc.mefi" target="_self">BIPOC Board</a><br> - <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/steering-committee/" target="_self">Steering Committee</a><br> - <a href="https://www.metafilter.com/mall/" target="_self">Mall</a><br> - <a href="/archive.mefi" target="_self">Archives</a><br> - <a href="/tags/" target="_self">Tags</a><br> - <a href="//www.metafilter.com/about.mefi" target="_self">About</a> <br>- <a href="http://mefiwiki.com">MeFi Wiki</a> <br>- <a href="//www.metafilter.com/modern.mefi" target="_self">Modern Theme</a> </div></div> <div style="width:20%;float:left;"><div class="footpad"> <p><strong>Sites</strong></p> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/metafilter.rss" title="MetaFilter RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/" target="_self">MetaFilter</a><br> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/ask.rss" title="Ask MetaFilter RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://ask.metafilter.com/" target="_self">AskMeFi</a><br> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/fanfare.rss" title="FanFare RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://fanfare.metafilter.com/" target="_self">FanFare</a><br> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/projects.rss" title="Projects RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://projects.metafilter.com/" target="_self">Projects</a><br> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/music.rss" title="MetaFilter Music RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://music.metafilter.com/" target="_self">Music</a><br> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/jobs.rss" title="MetaFilter Jobs RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://jobs.metafilter.com/" target="_self">Jobs</a><br> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/irl.rss" title="IRL RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://irl.metafilter.com/" target="_self">IRL</a><br> - <a href="https://rss.metafilter.com/metatalk.rss" title="MetaTalk RSS feed"><i class="feedicon"></i></a> <a href="http://metatalk.metafilter.com/" target="_self">MetaTalk</a> </div></div> <div style="width:20%;float:left;"><div class="footpad"> <p style="margin-top:30px;">Join 8,306 readers in helping <a href="https://login.metafilter.com/funding.mefi" target="_self">fund MetaFilter</a></p> <p style="margin-top:15px;"><a href="https://www.metafilter.com/contact/">Contact Us</a></p> </div></div> <div style="width:20%;float:left;"><div class="footpad"> <form action="/search.mefi" id="cse-search-box" style="margin-top:15px;"><div><input type="hidden" name="cx" value="partner-pub-8621957794194569:1154310032"><input type="hidden" name="cof" value="FORID:10"><input type="hidden" name="ie" value="UTF-8"><input type="text" name="q" size="31" style="width:120px;"><input type="submit" name="sa" value="Search" style="margin-left:3px;"></div></form><script type="text/javascript" src="//www.google.com/coop/cse/brand?form=cse-search-box&lang=en"></script> <span class="fineprint">© 1999-2025 MetaFilter LLC<br> All posts are © their original authors.</span><br><br> <span class="fineprint"><a href="http://faq.metafilter.com/" target="_self">FAQ</a> | <a href="http://www.metafilter.com/contact/" target="_self">Contact</a> | ☃<br></span> </div></div> <br clear="all"> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.7.2/jquery.min.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="//dha92jo6cen2v.cloudfront.net/scripts/mefi/nonmembers071513-min.js"></script> </body> </html>