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We’re Currently Heading Toward</h1>  <div class="bylinepublished">By <a href="/author/dave-levitan">Dave Levitan</a>  |  November 29, 2024 | 11:00am </div> <i class="extra-byline">Photo by Giulia Salvaterra/UnSplash</i> <div class="breadcrumbs"> <b class="type"> <a class='non' href='/climate'>Climate</a> <a class="non" href="/search?q=Coral+Reef">Coral Reef</a> </b> <div class="share-comment-wrapper"> <div class="article-share"> <img src="data:image/svg+xml,%3C%3Fxml version='1.0'%3F%3E%3Csvg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' viewBox='0 0 30 30'%3E%3Cpath d='M3,26c-0.552,0-1-0.447-1-1C2,23.395,2.485,9.553,19,9.016V5c0-0.404,0.244-0.77,0.617-0.924 c0.374-0.156,0.804-0.069,1.09,0.217l7,7c0.391,0.391,0.391,1.023,0,1.414l-7,7c-0.286,0.286-0.716,0.372-1.09,0.217 C19.244,19.77,19,19.404,19,19v-3.986c-6.12,0.171-10.631,1.924-13.083,5.098C4.022,22.563,4,24.976,4,25C4,25.553,3.552,26,3,26z' fill='%230a7bc2'/%3E%3C/svg%3E" class="article-share-menu-button" id="article-share-button"> </button> 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data-disqus-url="https://xwww.splinter.com/ecologically-critical-coral-species-will-not-adapt-to-the-warming-were-currently-heading-toward#disqus_thread"><span class="text">!</span></span></div> </a> </div> </div> </div>  <div class="main-image"> <img class="no-lazy" src="https://img.pastemagazine.com/wp-content/suploads/2024/11/coral_reef_warming_palau.jpg" alt="Ecologically Critical Coral Species Will Not Adapt to the Warming We’re Currently Heading Toward" width="854" height="480" /> </div> <div class="copy entry manual-ads"> <p>The last time we checked in on coral research, <a href="https://www.splinter.com/study-maybe-coral-reefs-are-not-entirely-screwed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the news was good</a> (well, better than usual): reef systems may actually adapt reasonably well to a certain amount of warming, a study found last month. Well, not so fast: A new <a href="http://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adl6480" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study</a> published in <em>Science</em> on Thursday found that one particular species — a particularly important one, in some reefs — is going to struggle to adapt to the warming currently on the menu.</p> <p>“<a href="https://www.coralsoftheworld.org/species_factsheets/species_factsheet_summary/acropora-aculeus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corymbose <em>Acropora</em></a> are highly threatened by climate change, yet also provide critical ecological functions, such as reef accretion, and habitat provision,” wrote study authors led by Liam Lachs, of Newcastle University in the U.K. They used something called an eco-evolutionary model to examine how the coral reefs in the small Pacific island nation of Palau will respond to various changes in temperature, and how well this particular could weather the changes. The answer is… not awesome.</p> <div class="grid-x articles-inline-insert" id="inline-most_popular"> <div class="large-12 cell articles-header"> <a href="/articles/home/most-read" class="float-left hed v3"> Most Popular</a> </div> <ul class="articles grid-margin-x flex-container flex-dir-column"> <li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"> <a href="https://www.splinter.com/after-this-braindead-elon-and-vivek-take-can-we-please-stop-taking-fareed-zakaria-seriously-now" class="auto cell copy-container "> <b class="title">After this Braindead Elon and Vivek Take, Can We Please Stop Taking Fareed Zakaria Seriously Now?</b> </a> </li> <li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"> <a href="https://www.splinter.com/the-daily-show-has-a-nancy-mace-problem" class="auto cell copy-container "> <b class="title">The Daily Show Has a Nancy Mace Problem </b> </a> </li> <li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"> <a href="https://www.splinter.com/trump-announces-blanket-tariffs-in-his-bid-to-crash-the-economy" class="auto cell copy-container "> <b class="title">Trump Announces Blanket Tariffs in His Bid to Crash the Economy</b> </a> </li> </ul> </div></p> <div s="sx" class="dfp" data-chars=""><div class="htlad-mid_leaderboard_rectangle_video" id="mid_leaderboard_rectangle_video" style="width:auto; height:auto;"><script data-cfasync="false" src="/cdn-cgi/scripts/5c5dd728/cloudflare-static/email-decode.min.js"></script><script id="e0e645575c314b6f943459fe8a26c613">(new Image()).src = 'https://capi.connatix.com/tr/si?token=e3bc52e9-eb21-45fc-9179-38c2997fcd6f&cid=f05e5dfa-afb4-420d-a94f-13c7f4af05fb'; cnx.cmd.push(function() { cnx({ playerId: "e3bc52e9-eb21-45fc-9179-38c2997fcd6f" }).render("e0e645575c314b6f943459fe8a26c613"); });</script></div></div> <p>“Given current policies, a more-likely emissions scenario would yield ~3 °C of warming, leading modelled populations to undergo severe declines and remain in depleted states,” the authors wrote. But just like last month’s study, there <em>is</em> some adaptive ability in these organisms: at or below 2 degrees C of warming — the stated goal of the Paris Agreement — the <em>Acropora</em> corals “can persist at healthy levels.” And even at that 3 degree mark, heat tolerance of the coral will increase via natural selection, which would leave a tiny window open to save them over the long run.</p> <p>And if the world backslides on its progress, and somehow soars past even that 3-degree mark? “[U]nder an extreme–albeit unlikely–emissions scenario, local extinction seems to be inevitable.”</p> <div class="grid-x articles-inline-insert" id="inline-related-articles"> <div class="large-12 cell articles-header "><a href="/search?t=Coral+Reef" class="float-left hed v54">Related Content</a></div><ul class="articles grid-margin-x flex-container flex-dir-column"><li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"><a class="auto cell copy-container noimage" href="https://www.splinter.com/study-maybe-coral-reefs-are-not-entirely-screwed"><b class="title">Study: Maybe Coral Reefs Are Not Entirely Screwed</b></a></li><li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"><a class="auto cell copy-container noimage" href="https://www.splinter.com/scientists-took-out-a-full-page-ad-blasting-a-newspaper-1794269722"><b class="title">Scientists took out a full-page ad blasting a newspaper for ignoring the coral reef crisis</b></a></li></ul> </div></p> <p>I’m glad there are scientists out there studying this of course, but there really isn’t a rosy future for the world’s coral reefs out there waiting around another study’s bend. They may be salvageable, to some small extent, and if the research helps point the way then great. In the end though, every coral study concludes the same thing; as Lachs and his colleagues wrote, “Our work reinforces the call to both severely reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and conduct strategic local management of reefs.”</p> <div s="s" class="dfp" data-chars=""><div class="htlad-mid_leaderboard_rectangle_1" id="mid_leaderboard_rectangle_1"></div></div> <div class="grid-x articles-inline-insert" id="inline-featured"> <div class="large-12 cell articles-header "><a href="/articles/article-type/features" class="float-left hed v54">More from Splinter</a></div><ul class="articles grid-margin-x flex-container flex-dir-column"><li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"><a class="auto cell copy-container noimage" href="https://www.splinter.com/ecologically-critical-coral-species-will-not-adapt-to-the-warming-were-currently-heading-toward"><b class="title">Ecologically Critical Coral Species Will Not Adapt to the Warming We're Currently Heading Toward</b></a></li><li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"><a class="auto cell copy-container noimage" href="https://www.splinter.com/climate-scientist-president-explains-concept-of-trade-war-to-business-genius-president-elect"><b class="title">Climate Scientist President Explains Concept of Trade War to Business Genius President-Elect</b></a></li><li class="grid-x grid-padding-x"><a class="auto cell copy-container noimage" href="https://www.splinter.com/researchers-interviewed-former-self-described-incels-heres-what-they-found"><b class="title">Researchers Interviewed Former Self-Described Incels. 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