Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5掳C climate future using historical analogues

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See <a href="https://www.enable-javascript.com">how to enable JavaScript in your browser</a>.</strong></p> </noscript> <div class="section silc-mtop--5 silc-mbottom--6"> <div class="compartment compartment--full"> <h1>Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5掳C climate future using historical analogues</h1> <div class="breadcrumb"> <ol class="breadcrumb__list"> <li class="breadcrumb__list-item"> <a href="/">Home</a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb__list-item"> <a href="/research-impact/publications">Publications</a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb__list-item"> Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5掳C climate future using historical analogues </li> </ol> </div> <a href="/research-impact/publications" class="link--back-to-parent silc-mtop--4 silc-mtop--5-800">Back to All Publications</a> </div> </div> <div class="section main silc-m--0"> <div class="compartment compartment--full"> <div class="silc-grid silc-grid--collapse silc-mbottom--9 silc-grid--reverse-800"> <div class="silc-grid__col silc-grid__col--5-800 silc-grid__col--4-1200 silc-mbottom--7-799"> <aside class="aside"> <div class="aside__body"> <div class="aside__section silc-mbottom--6"> <div class="label">Type:</div> <div> <span>Journal Articles</span> </div> </div> <div class="aside__section"> <div class="label">Project:</div>  <span><a href="/research-impact/projects/program-accelerate-global-coal-transition" hreflang="en">Program to Accelerate the Global Coal Transition</a>, </span> <span><a href="/research-impact/projects/national-climate-strategies" hreflang="en">National Climate Strategies</a></span> </div> <div class="aside__section"> <div class="label">Author(s):</div> <div class="label--author">School Authors</div> <ul class="list--unstyled">  <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/kavita-surana" hreflang="en">Kavita Surana</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/kathleen-kennedy" hreflang="en">Kathleen Kennedy</a></li> </ul> <div class="label--author label--author-sub">Other Authors</div> <ul class="list--unstyled">  <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Morgan R. Edwards</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Zachary H. Thomas</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Gregory Nemet</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Sagar Rathod</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Jenna Greene</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Jay Fuhrman</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Haewon C. McJeon</li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="aside__cta"> <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2215679121" target="_blank" class="link--external link--white">Full Publication</a> </div> </aside> </div> <div class="silc-grid__col silc-grid__col--7-800 silc-grid__col--8-1200"> <div class="page-content"> <figure class="page-content__hero"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/spp_featured_image/public/2024-05/Website%20Headers%20%2813%29.png?itok=UNFRcrMm" width="1100" height="445" alt="picture of tree with industrial plant in background" /> </figure> <div class="tagline"><time datetime="2024-05-06T12:00:00Z">May 6, 2024</time> </div> <div class="cards-grid silc-grid silc-mbottom--6-1200"> <div class="silc-grid__col silc-grid__col--4-800 silc-mbottom--5-799"> <div class="callout"> <div class="callout__compartment compartment silc-p--0"> <h2 class="h4">Achieving a global 1.5掳C future requires rapid technological growth to reduce CO2 emissions.</h2> </div> </div> </div> <div class="silc-grid__col silc-grid__col--4-800 silc-mbottom--5-799"> <div class="callout"> <div class="callout__compartment compartment silc-p--0"> <h2 class="h4">New study analyzes the impact of direct air capture with carbon storage (DACCS) on emissions reductions. </h2> </div> </div> </div> <div class="silc-grid__col silc-grid__col--4-800 silc-mbottom--5-799"> <div class="callout"> <div class="callout__compartment compartment silc-p--0"> <h2 class="h4">Meet the Experts!</h2> <p><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/kavita-surana">Kavita Surana</a>, CGS Senior Fellow</p><p><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/kathleen-kennedy">Kathleen Kennedy</a>, CGS Assistant Research Professor </p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="silc-accordion" id="accordion-11bf59e8-5f52-47b4-adc1-4efeeb444366" data-silc-accordion-animated> <div class="silc-accordion__section"> <button id="accordion-11bf59e8-5f52-47b4-adc1-4efeeb444366-section-9974f356-3dd3-464e-94f6-346788907b5c-label" class="silc-accordion__label" aria-controls="accordion-11bf59e8-5f52-47b4-adc1-4efeeb444366-section-9974f356-3dd3-464e-94f6-346788907b5c-content"> Citation </button> <div class="silc-accordion__content" id="accordion-11bf59e8-5f52-47b4-adc1-4efeeb444366-section-9974f356-3dd3-464e-94f6-346788907b5c-content" aria-labelled-by="accordion-11bf59e8-5f52-47b4-adc1-4efeeb444366-section-9974f356-3dd3-464e-94f6-346788907b5c-label"> <div class="silc-accordion__content-compartment"> <p>Edwards, M., Thomas, Z., Nemeta, G., Rathod, S., Greene, J., Surana, K., Kennedy, K., Fuhrman, J., McJeon, H., (2024). Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5掳C climate future using historical analogues. <span> </span><em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. </em><a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2215679121">doi/10.1073/pnas.2215679121</a> </p> </div> </div> </div> </div>  <section> <h3>Abstract</h3><p>Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 掳C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 掳C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.</p> </section> <ul class="tag-list"> <li class="tag-list__item tag-list__heading"> <strong>Explore:</strong> </li> <li class="tag-list__item"> <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/" class="tag-list__link">Center for Global Sustainability</a> </li> <li class="tag-list__item"> <a href="https://spp.umd.edu/research-impact/strategic-focus-areas/sustainability" class="tag-list__link">Sustainability</a> </li> </ul> </div> <hr> <section aria-labelledby="related-publications-heading"> <h2 class="h3 silc-mbottom--0 silc-mbottom--3-800" id="related-publications-heading">Related Publications</h2> <a href="/research-impact/publications?related_projects[7246]=7246&related_projects[10330]=10330&related_projects[7221]=7221" class="link--cta silc-mbottom--4 silc-mbottom--6-800">View All Publications</a> <div class="views-element-container"> <div class="feed silc-mbottom--4 silc-mbottom--6-800"> <article class="feed__item feed__item--text" aria-labelledby="article-13746-title"> <div class="h4 feed__item-heading"> <a href="/research-impact/publications/carbon-dioxide-removal-policies-and-practices-us-and-china" id="article-13746-title" class="link--inherit">Carbon Dioxide Removal Policies and Practices in the U.S. and China</a> </div> <div class="feed__item-content"> <p><strong>School Authors:</strong> <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/mengye-zhu">Mengye Zhu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/tiruwork-berhanu-tibebu">Tiruwork Berhanu Tibebu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/sha-yu">Sha Yu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/yiyun-ryna-cui">Yiyun 'Ryna' Cui</a></p> <p><strong>Other Authors:</strong> Yingtong Li, Xueting Peng, Jingli Fan, Xinzhao Cheng, Xian Zhang</p> <time datetime="2024-11-18T12:00:00Z">November 18, 2024</time> </div> </article> <article class="feed__item feed__item--text" aria-labelledby="article-13814-title"> <div class="h4 feed__item-heading"> <a href="/research-impact/publications/maximum-log-likelihood-based-data-fusion-model-estimating-households" id="article-13814-title" class="link--inherit">A maximum log-likelihood based data fusion model for estimating household鈥檚 vehicle purchase decision</a> </div> <div class="feed__item-content"> <p><strong>School Authors:</strong> <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/jiehong-lou">Jiehong Lou</a></p> <p><strong>Other Authors:</strong> Md Istiak Jahan, Tanmoy Bhowmik, Sachraa G. 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Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5掳C climate future using historical analogues | Center for Global Sustainability