Population growth | Definition, Growth Rates, Calculation, Human Population, & Facts

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py-lg-20 content md-expanded" data-topic-id="470439"> <div class="grid gx-0"> <div class="col-auto"> <div class="topic-left-rail md-article-drawer position-relative d-flex border-right-sm border-left-sm open"> <div class="drawer d-flex flex-column open"> <div class="left-rail-section-content"> <div class="topic-left-rail-header text-truncate bg-gray-50 position-relative text-right d-flex align-items-center"> <div class="tlr-title px-20 py-15 text-left"> <em class="material-icons text-gray-400 d-lg-none" data-icon="toc"></em> <a class="font-serif font-weight-bold text-black link-blue" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/population-growth">population growth</a> </div> <button aria-label="Close" class="js-sections-close-button btn-link btn-sm btn d-lg-none position-absolute top-0 p-10 right-0" > <em class="material-icons font-26" data-icon="close"></em> </button> </div> <div class="section-content pl-10 pr-20 pl-sm-50 pr-sm-60 pl-lg-5 pr-lg-10 pt-10 pt-lg-0 bg-gray-50 clear-catfish-ad"> <div class="toc mb-20"> <div class="font-serif font-14 font-weight-bold mx-15 mb-15 mt-20"> Table of Contents </div> <ul class="list-unstyled my-0" data-level="h1"><li data-target="#ref1"><div class="pl-25"><a class="link-gray-900 w-100" href="/science/population-growth">Introduction</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"></div></li><li data-target="#ref357284"><div class="d-flex align-items-center"><div class="ml-25"></div><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/population-growth#ref357284">Calculating population growth</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"></div></li><li data-target="#ref357285"><div class="d-flex align-items-center"><div class="ml-25"></div><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/population-growth#ref357285">Population dynamics</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"></div></li><li data-target="#ref357286"><div class="d-flex align-items-center"><div class="ml-25"></div><a class="w-100 link-gray-900" href="/science/population-growth#ref357286">Human population growth</a></div><div class="ml-40 toc-drawer sub-toc-drawer"></div></li></ul> <a class="toc-extra-link link-gray-900" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/population-growth/additional-info">References & Edit History</a> <a class="toc-extra-link link-gray-900" href="/facts/population-growth">Related Topics</a> </div> <div class="tlr-media-slider pb-10 mb-30"> <a class="section-header link-gray-900 font-serif font-14 font-weight-bold mb-10 mx-10" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/population-growth/images-videos">Images</a> <div class="slider js-slider position-relative d-inline-flex align-items-center mw-100 "> <div class="slider-container js-slider-container overflow-hidden d-flex overflow-hidden text-nowrap ml-15"> <a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/39/150639-050-C37A33AA/environment-populations-rate-growth-curve-competition-resources.jpg" data-href="/media/1/470439/281439" class="media-overlay-link d-inline-block mr-5"> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/39/150639-004-5A7C80A0/environment-populations-rate-growth-curve-competition-resources.jpg" alt="Figure 1: Exponential versus logistic population growth" height="50" /> </a> <a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/74/232574-050-A05B2CB2/population-density-fluctuations-snowshoe-hare-predator-effect.jpg" data-href="/media/1/470439/266751" class="media-overlay-link d-inline-block mr-5"> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/74/232574-159-CC4280B5/population-density-fluctuations-snowshoe-hare-predator-effect.jpg" alt="Figure 2: Hare and lynx populations over time" height="50" /> </a> <a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/88/106788-050-6913A60F/Graph-increase-climate-change-scenarios-Earth-surface.jpg" data-href="/media/1/470439/109628" class="media-overlay-link d-inline-block mr-5"> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/88/106788-004-9E6F26FD/Graph-increase-climate-change-scenarios-Earth-surface.jpg" alt="global warming scenarios" height="50" /> </a> </div> <button disabled class="prev-button js-prev-button position-absolute btn btn-circle shadow btn-blue " aria-label="Previous"> <span class="material-icons md-24" data-icon="keyboard_arrow_left"></span> </button> <button disabled class="next-button js-next-button position-absolute btn btn-circle shadow btn-blue " aria-label="Next"> <span class="material-icons md-24" data-icon="keyboard_arrow_right"></span> </button> </div> </div> <div class="mb-30 tlr-related-questions"> <div class="text-gray-900 p-5 pb-0 font-serif font-14 font-weight-bold mx-10 mb-15"> Related Questions </div> <ul> <li class="link-gray-900 mb-15"><a class="" href="/question/Where-was-Thomas-Malthus-educated">Where was Thomas Malthus educated? </a> </li> <li class="link-gray-900 mb-15"><a class="" href="/question/What-did-Thomas-Malthus-write">What did 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href="https://cdn.britannica.com/39/150639-050-C37A33AA/environment-populations-rate-growth-curve-competition-resources.jpg" class="gtm-assembly-link position-relative d-flex align-items-center justify-content-center media-overlay-link card-media" data-href="/media/1/470439/281439"> <picture> <source media="(min-width: 680px)" srcset="https://cdn.britannica.com/39/150639-050-C37A33AA/environment-populations-rate-growth-curve-competition-resources.jpg?w=300"> <img src="https://cdn.britannica.com/39/150639-050-C37A33AA/environment-populations-rate-growth-curve-competition-resources.jpg?w=400&h=300&c=crop" alt="Figure 1: Exponential versus logistic population growth" loading="eager" /> </picture> <button class="magnifying-glass btn btn-circle position-absolute shadow btn-white top-10 right-10" aria-label="Zoom in"> <em class="material-icons link-blue" data-icon="zoom_in"></em> </button> </a> </div> <figcaption class="card-body"> <div class="md-assembly-caption text-muted font-14 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They write new content and verify and edit content received from contributors.</div> </a> <div data-popper-arrow></div> </div> <span class="btn btn-link editor-link p-0 qa-byline-link font-12 "> The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica</span></div> <div class="last-updated font-12 font-serif"> <span class="text-gray-700"> Last Updated: <time datetime="2024-11-11T00:00:00CST" >Nov 11, 2024</time> •</span> <a class="byline-edit-history" href="https://www.britannica.com/science/population-growth/additional-info#history" rel="nofollow">Article History</a> </div></div> </div> <button class="d-flex d-lg-none btn btn-outline-blue border rounded-sm shadow-sm mobile-toc-button gtm-mobile-toc-inline-button d-none d-sm-block js-sections-inline-button module-spacing btn d-lg-none"> <em class="material-icons mr-5 ml-n10 my-n5 md-icon" data-icon="toc"></em> Table of Contents </button> <div class="d-flex d-sm-none flex-row"> <button class="d-flex d-lg-none btn btn-outline-blue border rounded-sm shadow-sm mobile-toc-button gtm-mobile-toc-inline-button js-sections-inline-button module-spacing"> <em class="material-icons mr-5 ml-n10 my-n5 md-icon" data-icon="toc"></em> Table of Contents </button> <button class="ai-ask-button btn border-2 ai-ask-button btn border-2 module-spacing btn-sm js-inline-ai-ask-button btn-outline-red-400 border-red-400 p-10 ml-5"> Ask the Chatbot a Question </button> </div> <div class="js-qf-module qf-module px-40 px-sm-20 py-15 mx-auto module-spacing font-14 bg-gray-50 rounded"> <div class="facts-list mt-10"> <div class=""> <div class="js-fact mb-10 line-clamp clamp-3"> <dl> <dt>Key People: </dt> <dd><a href="/money/Thomas-Malthus" topicid="360609">Thomas Malthus</a></dd> <dd><a href="/biography/Kingsley-Davis" topicid="152804">Kingsley Davis</a></dd> <dd><a href="/biography/Paul-R-Ehrlich" topicid="180897">Paul R. Ehrlich</a></dd> <dd><a href="/biography/Jacques-Bertillon" topicid="62829">Jacques Bertillon</a></dd> </dl> <button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-gray-50" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"> <em class="js-content link-blue">(Show more)</em> </button> </div> </div> <div class=""> <div class="js-fact mb-10 line-clamp clamp-3"> <dl> <dt>Related Topics: </dt> <dd><a href="/topic/fertility-rate" topicid="2065300">fertility rate</a></dd> <dd><a href="/topic/baby-boom-human-population" topicid="2167224">baby boom</a></dd> <dd><a href="/science/zero-population-growth" topicid="656684">zero population growth</a></dd> <dd><a href="/science/population-explosion" topicid="470418">population explosion</a></dd> <dd><a href="/science/environmental-resistance" topicid="189195">environmental resistance</a></dd> </dl> <button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-gray-50" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"> <em class="js-content link-blue">(Show more)</em> </button> </div> <div class="text-center"> <a class="btn btn-sm btn-link p-0" href="/facts/population-growth"> See all related content </a> </div> </div> </div> </div><span class="marker before-article"></span><section data-level="1" id="ref1"><span class="marker PREMOD1 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph"><strong><span id="ref1313705"></span>population growth</strong>, in <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/population-ecology" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">population ecology</a>, a change in the number of members of a certain <a href="https://www.britannica.com/plant/plant" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">plant</a> or <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/animal" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">animal</a> <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/species-taxon" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">species</a> in a particular location during a particular time period. Factors affecting population growth include <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/fertility" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">fertility</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/mortality-demography" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">mortality</a>, and, in animals, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/migration-animal" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">migration</a>—i.e., immigration to or <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/emigration" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">emigration</a> from a particular location. The average change in a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/population-biology-and-anthropology" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">population</a> over time is referred to as the population growth rate. A positive growth rate indicates a population increase, and a negative growth rate indicates a population decrease. The upper limit of a population in a given <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off mw" data-term="environment" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/environment" data-type="MW">environment</a>, referred to as the environment’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/carrying-capacity" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">carrying capacity</a>, is determined by the amount and availability of resources that are life-sustaining for that population.</p><span class="marker MOD1 mod-inline"></span></section> <span class="marker h2"></span><section data-level="1" id="ref357284"> <h2 class="h1">Calculating population growth</h2> <span class="marker PREMOD2 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">Population growth rates in a given location and time period can be calculated by subtracting population loss, or the combined rates of mortality and emigration, from population gain, or the combined rates of fertility and immigration. Fertility is the number of offspring produced on average by an individual species member under certain environmental conditions over a period of time. (Fertility is not to be confused with fecundity—the theoretical maximum number of offspring that can be produced by a species member in a given time period. The sex ratio and age structure of a population affect fertility rates, because they constrain the number of individuals capable of reproducing.</p><span class="marker MOD2 mod-inline"></span> </section> <span class="marker h3"></span><section data-level="1" id="ref357285"> <h2 class="h1">Population dynamics</h2> <span class="marker PREMOD3 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">The natural environment plays a crucial role in population growth through its carrying capacity. The life-sustaining resources in an environment are limited and can be reduced for individual species members by greater <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/population-density" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">population density</a> and competition from other species, among other factors. Moreover, fertility, mortality, and migration are all affected by food availability, mate availability, and environmental stress factors such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/pollution-environment" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">pollution</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/natural-disaster" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">natural disasters</a>.</p><a class="link-module shadow-sm d-block qa-read-more-module" href="/science/population-ecology/Calculating-population-growth#ref588053" data-link-module-iframe-link=""> <img loading="lazy" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/92/150292-050-3A539C17/herd-wildebeest-keystone-species-savanna-Africa-plains.jpg" alt="common wildebeest" class="rounded-sm mr-15" width="70" /> <div class="line-clamp clamp-5"> <div class="module-title bg-navy-dark">More From Britannica</div> <div class="font-weight-semi-bold mt-5">population ecology: Calculating population growth</div> </div> </a><span class="marker MOD3 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD4 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">Population growth <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off mw" data-term="dynamics" href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/dynamics" data-type="MW">dynamics</a> may be graphically depicted in an S-shaped curve, known as a logistic curve, as depicted in Figure 1. The logistic curve (right) represents an initial lag in growth, a burst of exponential growth, and finally a decline in population growth. When population density is high, mortality tends to increase because of competition for resources, predation, or increased disease transmission, resulting in the plateau in growth at the end of the curve. Population growth rates may also fluctuate in correlation with seasonal variations in the environment. For example, in deep lakes, a spring thaw causes colder, deeper waters to rise to the lake’s surface, releasing nutrients that then cause bursts in the growth of <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/plankton" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">plankton</a>, including <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/algae" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">algae</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/bacteria" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">bacteria</a>, and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/protozoan" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">protozoans</a> (<em>see</em> <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/water-bloom" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">water bloom</a>).</p><span class="marker MOD4 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD5 mod-inline"></span><div class="assemblies"><div class="w-100"><figure class="md-assembly m-0 mb-md-0 card card-borderless print-false" data-assembly-id="266751" data-asm-type="image"><div class="md-assembly-wrapper card-media" data-type="image"><a href="https://cdn.britannica.com/74/232574-050-A05B2CB2/population-density-fluctuations-snowshoe-hare-predator-effect.jpg" class="gtm-assembly-link position-relative d-flex align-items-center justify-content-center media-overlay-link card-media" data-href="/media/1/470439/266751"><picture><source media="(min-width: 680px)" srcset="https://cdn.britannica.com/74/232574-050-A05B2CB2/population-density-fluctuations-snowshoe-hare-predator-effect.jpg"><img src="https://cdn.britannica.com/74/232574-050-A05B2CB2/population-density-fluctuations-snowshoe-hare-predator-effect.jpg?w=300" alt="Figure 2: Hare and lynx populations over time" data-width="1600" data-height="900" loading="eager"></picture><button class="magnifying-glass btn btn-circle position-absolute shadow btn-white top-10 right-10" aria-label="Zoom in"><em class="material-icons link-blue" data-icon="zoom_in"></em></button></a></div><figcaption class="card-body"><div class="md-assembly-caption text-muted font-14 font-serif line-clamp"><span><a class="gtm-assembly-link md-assembly-title font-weight-bold d-inline font-sans-serif mr-5 media-overlay-link" href="https://cdn.britannica.com/74/232574-050-A05B2CB2/population-density-fluctuations-snowshoe-hare-predator-effect.jpg" data-href="/media/1/470439/266751">Figure 2: Hare and lynx populations over time</a><span>Cyclical fluctuations in the population density of the snowshoe hare and its effect on the population of its predator, the lynx.</span><button class="js-more-btn d-none btn btn-unstyled font-12 bg-white js-content" aria-label="Toggle more/less fact data"><span class="link-blue">(more)</span></button></span></div></figcaption></figure></div></div><p class="topic-paragraph">The population growth of different species may also be determined by predator-prey relationships—for example, following an increase in the population of zooplankton (minute aquatic animals), the population of their algae prey may decrease or grow at a slower rate. This results in an <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off eb" data-term="oscillating" href="https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/oscillating" data-type="EB">oscillating</a> population pattern, such as the cyclical fluctuation of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/snowshoe-hare" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">snowshoe hare</a> and lynx populations, as depicted in Figure 2.</p><span class="marker MOD5 mod-inline"></span> </section> <span class="marker h4"></span><section data-level="1" id="ref357286"> <h2 class="h1">Human population growth</h2> <span class="marker PREMOD6 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">The world’s human population experienced exponential growth from the 18th century, but growth rates have been declining since the second half of the 20th century. Although population growth rates vary significantly between countries and some regions continue to experience increasing growth rates, the overall rate of growth is decreasing.</p><span class="marker MOD6 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD7 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">The world’s human population reached 8 billion in November 2022 and is predicted to peak at 10.4 billion by 2080 and to remain at that level until the end of the century. Although human <a class="md-dictionary-link md-dictionary-tt-off eb" data-term="mortality" href="https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/mortality" data-type="EB">mortality</a> rates have been decreasing on average, the main reason for the decreasing population growth rate is lower fertility. Fertility varies based on <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/reproductive-behaviour-zoology" class="md-crosslink autoxref " data-show-preview="true">reproductive behaviour</a> patterns, which in turn depend upon factors such as cultural traditions, socioeconomic conditions, access to <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/contraception" class="md-crosslink " data-show-preview="true">contraception</a>, and ecological variables, such as population density.</p><div class="module-spacing"> <DIV class="marketing-INLINE_SUBSCRIPTION marketing-content" data-marketing-id="INLINE_SUBSCRIPTION"><style> .student-promo-banner-wrapper { container-type: inline-size; margin-bottom: 15px; } @container (min-width: 475px) { .student-promo-banner { flex-direction: row; } .student-promo-banner-img-wrapper { margin-bottom: 0; margin-right: 10px; justify-content: flex-start; } .student-promo-banner-text-wrapper { text-align: left; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 10px; } .student-promo-banner-button-wrapper { margin-right: 0; } }</style> <div class="student-promo-banner-wrapper"> <div class="student-promo-banner d-flex flex-column align-items-center bg-blue rounded p-20"> <div class="student-promo-banner-img-wrapper mb-20 mr-0 d-flex justify-content-center"> <img class="rounded" style="max-width: 100px; min-width: 80px" src="https://cdn.britannica.com/marketing/BlueThistle.webp" /> </div> <div class="student-promo-banner-text-wrapper ml-0 mb-10 text-center text-white"> <div class="h2 mb-10">Get Unlimited Access</div> <div class="h4 font-weight-semi-bold">Try Britannica Premium for free and discover more.</div> </div> <div class="student-promo-banner-button-wrapper d-flex justify-content-center align-items-center ml-auto mr-auto"> <a class="btn btn-m btn-orange" href="https://premium.britannica.com/premium-membership/?utm_source=premium&utm_medium=inline-cta&utm_campaign=august-2024">Subscribe</a> </div> </div> </div> </DIV></div><div class="one-good-fact-module"> </div><span class="marker MOD7 mod-inline"></span> <span class="marker PREMOD8 mod-inline"></span><p class="topic-paragraph">Decreasing mortality among humans in recent decades has changed the age structure of the population. It has been predicted by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs that by 2050 the world’s population of people age 65 or older will be twice as large as the population of children under age 5. That means that proportionately fewer people will be of reproductive age in the coming decades, which will contribute to a decline in population growth.</p><span class="marker MOD8 mod-inline"></span> </section> <span class="md-signature"><a href="/contributor/fatima-foflonker/12949033">Fatima Foflonker</a></span> <span class="marker end-of-content"></span><span class="marker after-article"></span></div> <div id="chatbot-root"></div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="ai-dialog-placeholder"></div> </div> </div> <aside class="col-md-da-320"></aside> </div> </div> </div> </div> </article></div> </div></div> </div> </main> <div id="md-footer"></div> <noscript><iframe src="//www.googletagmanager.com/ns.html?id=GTM-5W6NC8" height="0" width="0" style="display:none;visibility:hidden"></iframe></noscript> <script type="text/javascript" id="_informizely_script_tag"> var IzWidget = IzWidget || {}; (function (d) { var scriptElement = d.createElement('script'); scriptElement.type = 'text/javascript'; scriptElement.async = true; scriptElement.src = "https://insitez.blob.core.windows.net/site/f780f33e-a610-4ac2-af81-3eb184037547.js"; var node = d.getElementById('_informizely_script_tag'); node.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, node); } )(document); </script>  <script> window.ap3c = window.ap3c || {}; var ap3c = window.ap3c; ap3c.cmd = ap3c.cmd || []; ap3c.cmd.push(function() { ap3c.init('ZO4siT4cLwnykPnzZWJtd3Byb2Q', 'https://engage.email.britannica.com/'); ap3c.track({v: 0}); }); ap3c.activity = function(act) { ap3c.act = (ap3c.act || []); ap3c.act.push(act); }; var s, t; s = document.createElement('script'); s.type = 'text/javascript'; s.src = "https://engage.email.britannica.com/app.js"; t = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; t.parentNode.insertBefore(s, t); </script> <script class="marketing-page-info" type="application/json"> {"pageType":"Topic","templateName":"DESKTOP","pageNumber":1,"pagesTotal":1,"pageId":470439,"pageLength":685,"initialLoad":true,"lastPageOfScroll":false} </script> <script class="marketing-content-info" type="application/json"> [] </script> <script src="https://cdn.britannica.com/mendel-resources/3-131/js/libs/jquery-3.5.0.min.js?v=3.131.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" data-type="Init Mendel Code Splitting"> (function() { $.ajax({ dataType: 'script', cache: true, url: 'https://cdn.britannica.com/mendel-resources/3-131/dist/topic-page.js?v=3.131.7' }); })(); </script> <script class="analytics-metadata" type="application/json"> {"leg":"D","adLeg":"D","userType":"ANONYMOUS","pageType":"Topic","pageSubtype":null,"articleTemplateType":"MEDIUM","gisted":false,"pageNumber":1,"hasSummarizeButton":false,"hasAskButton":true} </script> <script type="text/javascript"> EBStat={accountId:-1,hostnameOverride:'webstats.eb.com',domain:'www.britannica.com', json:''}; </script> <script type="text/javascript"> ( function() { $.ajax( { dataType: 'script', cache: true, url: '//www.britannica.com/webstats/mendelstats.js?v=1' } ) .done( function() { try {writeStat(null,EBStat);} catch(err){} } ); })(); </script> <div id="bc-fixed-dialogue"></div> </body> </html>

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Population growth | Definition, Growth Rates, Calculation, Human Population, & Facts | Britannica