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outlook, 2021</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2021-12-21T00:00:00Z">December 21, 2021</time> | Survey</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-7 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-10"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Executive sentiment ends the year on a generally positive note, with most survey respondents expecting 2022 to bring better economic conditions despite heightened risks from the pandemic and inflation.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" class="mck-o-edge-to-edge TableOfContents_mck-c-table-of-contents__zeYey"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h6 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 TableOfContents_mck-c-table-of-contents__heading__nQD1F">View the surveys</h6><ol class="mdc-u-ts-7 TableOfContents_mck-c-table-of-contents__list__ivUca"><li class="TableOfContents_mck-c-table-of-contents__list-item__Q8xfB"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#section-header-Dec" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Economic conditions outlook, December 2021</span></a></li><li class="TableOfContents_mck-c-table-of-contents__list-item__Q8xfB"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#section-header-Sept" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Economic conditions outlook, September 2021</span></a></li><li class="TableOfContents_mck-c-table-of-contents__list-item__Q8xfB"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#section-header-June" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Economic conditions outlook, June 2021</span></a></li><li class="TableOfContents_mck-c-table-of-contents__list-item__Q8xfB"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#section-header-March" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Economic conditions outlook, March 2021</span></a></li></ol></div></div></div></div></div> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="top-right" class="mck-o-edge-to-edge SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header___N7qG mck-c-module-wrapper"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing"><div id="section-header-Dec" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper__CZEyB"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-positioned__fIWpF"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-sm SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-text__hSx1f"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10"><span>Survey</span></div><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__heading__2ePOu"><span>Economic conditions outlook, December 2021</span></h2></div><div class="SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__section-holder__BaLti"></div></div></div></div></div></div> <h4>Executive sentiment ends the year on a generally positive note, with most survey respondents expecting 2022 to bring better economic conditions despite heightened risks from the pandemic and inflation.</h4> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Fstrategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%2Four%20insights%2Feconomic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021%2Feconomic-conditions-outlook-december-2021.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="economic-conditions-outlook-december-2021" data-layer-report-name="economic-conditions-outlook-december-2021>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (5 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>Respondents to the latest</strong> McKinsey Global Survey on the economy end a largely optimistic year with mostly positive assessments of current conditions as well as expectations for 2022.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="4ff8b89b-e835-4321-a3ae-ddc2224d8c26"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="4ff8b89b-e835-4321-a3ae-ddc2224d8c26" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from November 29 to December 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 955 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> These relatively upbeat outlooks, both for the global economy and for respondents’ countries, come despite a resurgence in concerns about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic: <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-economics-intelligence-executive-summary-november-2021">countries across Europe and North America had been reporting rising case numbers</a> since early October, and WHO <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern">declared the Omicron variant to be one of concern</a> just days before the survey launched. Respondents—particularly those in Latin America and North America—also see inflation as a pressing economic threat, along with rising interest rates. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect increasing rates in their countries in the first half of 2022—the largest share we’ve seen to date in our surveys.</p> <h3>The year ends with positive sentiments but less optimism than midyear</h3> <p>A majority of respondents say conditions in the global economy are better than they were six months ago, as has been true throughout 2021. The current share, 60 percent, is much larger than the 43 percent who reported improved conditions one year ago, though executives’ positivity has tempered since June (Exhibit 1). Respondents’ assessments of their countries’ economies tell a similar story. Sixty-two percent say country conditions are better than they were six months ago, up from 49 percent who said at the end of 2020 that their economies had improved.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Positive assessments of the economy remain more common than at the end of 2020, after peaking in June." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Respondents in India, Greater China,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="4c75b903-65c9-40bd-a626-dd6edd453ba5"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="4c75b903-65c9-40bd-a626-dd6edd453ba5" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> and Asia–Pacific were the most likely to express positive views on the trajectory of domestic conditions, with at least three-quarters of respondents in each location reporting improvements compared with six months ago. By contrast, less than half of respondents in Latin America and other developing markets<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="7a1dbbf4-78ce-4697-a6e0-c83815c3b0b1"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="7a1dbbf4-78ce-4697-a6e0-c83815c3b0b1" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes respondents in Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.</span></span></span></a></span> say their countries’ economies have improved (Exhibit 2). In Asia–Pacific, that is a dramatic change from the September survey, when respondents there were the most negative of any region. Conversely, respondents in Europe have become much less upbeat since September.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Respondents in Asia–Pacific are more likely than in September to report improved conditions in their countries; the opposite is true in Europe." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Respondents’ views trace a similar arc when they look ahead to the next six months. Most (57 percent) expect both the global economy and their countries’ economies to improve, though this proportion has declined since the summer (Exhibit 3). The shares of respondents predicting economic improvements, both globally and domestically, are similar in size to those in the December 2020 survey who expected improvement. As is true with current views on domestic conditions, respondents in India, Greater China, and Asia–Pacific are the most optimistic: more than three-quarters in each of those locations predict improvements in their countries. Just 26 percent in Latin America say the same.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Expectations for the global economy and respondents’ home countries ended the year where they started in January." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Respondents’ expectations for their own companies, too, are still largely positive even after trending downward since the summer. Sixty-four percent expect customer demand to increase in the next six months, down from 74 percent in the June survey. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect profits to increase, compared with 74 percent in June and September.</p> <h3>Renewed concerns about COVID-19 as an economic threat</h3> <p>The COVID-19 pandemic remains the most-cited risk to the global economy over the next 12 months, as it has been since WHO declared the outbreak a pandemic in March 2020. In a change from the October survey, respondents have once again cited the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth more than any other factor, as they have since early 2020. In October, before the Omicron variant emerged, supply-chain challenges briefly replaced the pandemic as the top risk.</p> <p>The latest survey also asked executives to choose the likeliest of <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy">nine scenarios for the pandemic’s economic and health impact, both globally and in respondents’ countries</a>. Compared with the October survey, a larger share selected global and domestic scenarios with recurrences of the COVID-19 virus than scenarios with effective control of the virus’s spread.</p> <p>Respondents also commonly express concerns about inflation. For the first time since June 2012, when we began asking about inflation as a risk to global growth, respondents selected it as one of the top two most-cited risks. Inflation also ranks second, behind the pandemic, as a risk to domestic growth. Respondents in Latin America were most apt to call inflation a threat to domestic growth, as in October. Inflation has also become the primary concern of those in North America and developing markets (Exhibit 4). These concerns mark a striking change from one year ago, when geopolitical instability and high levels of national debt loomed as the second-most-cited threats to global and domestic growth, respectively, behind the pandemic.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 4</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="In every region, the pandemic and inflation are considered top risks to domestic growth." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Respondents also see rising interest rates as an economic threat in the months ahead. For the first time since December 2018, rising interest rates are one of the five most-cited concerns for the global economy. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect increasing rates in their countries in the next six months—the largest share ever captured in the survey, which first asked about interest rates in December 2016. Respondents in North America and Europe are much more likely now than in September to expect rising rates, whereas those in Greater China are now less likely to predict an increase (Exhibit 5).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 5</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Respondents in Europe and North America are much more likely now than last quarter to expect rising interest rates." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20december%202021/svgz-econoutlookdec21-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p><em>Download <a href="/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook december 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-december-2021.pdf">Economic conditions outlook, December 2021</a> (PDF–740 KB).</em></p> <hr/> <p>This article was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="top-right" class="mck-o-edge-to-edge SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header___N7qG mck-c-module-wrapper"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing"><div id="section-header-Sept" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper__CZEyB"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-positioned__fIWpF"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-sm SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-text__hSx1f"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10"><span>Survey</span></div><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__heading__2ePOu"><span>Economic conditions outlook, September 2021</span></h2></div><div class="SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__section-holder__BaLti"></div></div></div></div></div></div> <h4>Executives’ sentiment on economic conditions continues to be positive, even as concerns mount—yet again—over the pandemic’s threat to growth.</h4> <p><strong>Eighteen months into the COVID-19 pandemic,</strong> executives’ responses to our latest <a href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys">McKinsey Global Survey</a> suggest that they believe the economy is on track toward a recovery.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="99298aa9-212d-4403-a03d-a7aaf3f46434"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="99298aa9-212d-4403-a03d-a7aaf3f46434" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from August 30 to September 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 958 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Throughout 2021, their views have, on average, been consistently positive: the economy is improving, and the future is brighter still. Compared with one year ago, respondents are more than twice as likely to say economic conditions in their home countries are better now than they were six months ago.</p> <p>Yet with the Delta variant affecting so many parts of the world, worries over the pandemic’s effects on the economy have resurfaced—just one quarter after a historically low share of respondents cited it as a risk to domestic economic growth. Respondents are also more likely to identify supply-chain disruptions and inflation as risks. Compared with respondents in emerging economies, their peers in developed economies more often cite all three of these issues as threats to growth. They are also generally less upbeat about the economy and about their own companies’ prospects in the months ahead.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="df1bfac0-cd20-4597-8942-1d5a7e4432fc"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="df1bfac0-cd20-4597-8942-1d5a7e4432fc" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <h3>Overall sentiment is consistently positive</h3> <p>Respondents in our latest survey continue to report largely positive views on the economy, at home and globally. Although after several consecutive surveys showing increasing confidence, the shares reporting improvements did not grow since last quarter (Exhibit 1). Sixty-seven percent of all respondents say conditions in their own economies have improved, down from 73 percent in June. </p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="After several surveys of increasingly upbeat views, the shares reporting an improvement in economic conditions did not grow since last quarter." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Across geographies, majorities of respondents in every region but Asia–Pacific (where views are much more downbeat now than in June) say economic conditions in their home countries have improved in the past six months (Exhibit 2). Most notably since last quarter: sentiments in India have bounced back dramatically. Eighty-five percent of executives there now report improvements in their economy, up from 33 percent who said so previously. And while respondents in North America are less bullish than they were in June, two-thirds of respondents there still say conditions are better now than six months ago.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="In nearly every region, most respondents say their home economies are better now than six months ago—with a dramatic upturn in India." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Meanwhile, expectations for improved economic conditions are holding steady, or even declining. Respondents are just as likely as in our July survey (71 percent) to predict that conditions in the global economy will improve in the next six months, down from an all-time high of 81 percent who said so in the previous quarter.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="93afe2cd-ca62-4860-bb88-b410dd247940"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="93afe2cd-ca62-4860-bb88-b410dd247940" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Since March 2011, we have asked respondents how they expect conditions in the global economy to change over the next six months. In the COVID-19 pandemic’s second year, record shares of respondents have predicted improvements in the global economy (starting in March 2021, with 69 percent of respondents); before then, the largest share to predict improvements was in December 2020 (62 percent).</span></span></span></a></span> When asked about their countries’ economic prospects, 65 percent of respondents now say they expect improvements in their home economies, down from a range of 73 percent to 79 percent who have said so since March 2021. In some regions (namely, Europe and North America), views on the economy’s prospects are less buoyant than views on its present state. Fifty-one percent of respondents in North America believe economic conditions at home will improve in the next six months, compared with 66 percent who report improvements in the <em>past </em>six months.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="McKinsey Global Surveys" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/mckinsey%20global%20surveys/mck-global-survey-landing-1284442931-thumb-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div><span style="color: #111111; background-color: #ffffff;">McKinsey Global Surveys</span></div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Explore the collection</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <h3>The economic risk of the COVID-19 pandemic resurfaces</h3> <p>Respondents increasingly see the COVID-19 pandemic as a threat to future economic growth in their countries. Last quarter, just 36 percent cited the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth over the next year—<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">the smallest share to say so since we began asking in March 2020</a>. Now 49 percent of respondents say the same, up from 42 percent in our July survey.</p> <p>The pandemic is followed by supply-chain disruptions and inflation, which were also among the top three risks to domestic growth in the past two surveys. By region, the pandemic is the top risk to growth in every region except Latin America and cited most often by those in developing markets and Asia–Pacific (Exhibit 3).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="In most parts of the world, the COVID-19 pandemic poses the biggest risk to domestic growth." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>The pandemic is now considered a more acute risk to global growth as well, after the share citing it has steadily declined in the past year (Exhibit 4). It’s cited by 59 percent of all respondents as a top risk to global economic growth, followed by geopolitical instability (43 percent)—which has also risen in the ranks in the latest survey.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 4</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic as a risk to global growth have returned." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h3>In developed economies, perceptions are less positive</h3> <p>The latest results suggest that last quarter’s outsize optimism among developed-economy respondents—who, in June, reported much more positive sentiment than their peers in emerging economies—was short lived. Now, respondents in emerging economies are again more likely to say that conditions have improved in their home economies, continuing the upward trend we’ve seen for much of the pandemic (Exhibit 5); that conditions have improved in the world economy; <em>and </em>that they believe domestic and global conditions will improve further in the months ahead. </p> <p>This is true despite greater concerns over unemployment in emerging economies. On average, respondents still expect that a decrease in their countries’ unemployment rates is more likely than an increase.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="13ba40a0-f2ed-4f49-b09b-0692f0531331"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">7</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="13ba40a0-f2ed-4f49-b09b-0692f0531331" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Forty-five percent of all respondents say they expect that the unemployment rate in their home countries will decrease in the next six months, and 27 percent expect it will increase. In our July survey, 54 percent expected unemployment to decrease, while 26 percent expected it to increase.</span></span></span></a></span> Yet in emerging economies, 45 percent of executives believe their unemployment rates will increase, versus 18 percent in developed economies who say so. We saw similar results in July, when emerging-economy respondents were more than twice as likely as developed-economy respondents to expect their unemployment rates to rise.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 5</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex1_exhibit%20with%20article%20slug%20copy%202-05.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Emerging-economy executives continue to report increasingly positive views about their home countries, in contrast to their developed-economy peers." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex1_exhibit%20with%20article%20slug%20copy%202-05.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>With respect to risks, the COVID-19 pandemic is also seen as a more prominent threat to growth within developed economies. Fifty-two percent of executives in those economies cite the pandemic as a risk to growth in their own countries, compared with 45 percent in emerging economies. It’s nearly double the share who said so last quarter, when only 28 percent of developed-economy respondents—versus 50 percent in emerging economies—cited the pandemic. </p> <p>Finally, respondents in developed economies are less bullish than others on the company front (Exhibit 6). They are much less likely than their emerging-economy peers to expect the size of their companies’ workforces to increase in the next six months, to expect an increase in demand for their companies’ products and services, and to expect an increase in company profits.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 6</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex1_exhibit%20with%20article%20slug%20copy%202-06.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Respondents in developed economies are less bullish than others about their companies’ prospects." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20september%202021/svgz-economicoutlook-ex1_exhibit%20with%20article%20slug%20copy%202-06.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p><em>Download <a href="/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook september 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-september-2021.pdf">Economic conditions outlook, September 2021: McKinsey Global Survey results</a> (PDF–1.07 MB).</em></p> <hr/> <p>This article was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="top-right" class="mck-o-edge-to-edge SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header___N7qG mck-c-module-wrapper"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing"><div id="section-header-June" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper__CZEyB"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-positioned__fIWpF"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-sm SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-text__hSx1f"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10"><span>Survey</span></div><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__heading__2ePOu"><span>Economic conditions outlook, June 2021</span></h2></div><div class="SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__section-holder__BaLti"></div></div></div></div></div></div> <h4>Executives’ overall views on the economy continue to improve. As more and more economies are recovering from the pandemic, perceptions of potential risks are evolving.</h4> <p><strong>Positive momentum continues</strong> to build in many respondents’ home countries and in the world economy, according to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="05dfa1fb-264b-4d42-9b4d-d09aefdfe46f"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">8</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="05dfa1fb-264b-4d42-9b4d-d09aefdfe46f" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from May 31 to June 4, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,010 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Yet by geography, the results reveal starkly different sentiments between developed economies (where more countries are experiencing or anticipating a recovery) and emerging economies (where several regions face ongoing public-health challenges).<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="c9be511a-047f-4e25-af6b-ceabf5531832"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">9</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="c9be511a-047f-4e25-af6b-ceabf5531832" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">For more on the state of the economy, see “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-economics-intelligence-executive-summary-may-2021">Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, May 2021</a>,” June 9, 2021.</span></span></span></a></span> Executives in developed economies now report much more positive views than their counterparts—a reversal from the first year of the pandemic—as well as new threats to growth. As the pandemic recedes as an outsize and largely universal risk to the economy, respondents believe that inflation and supply-chain disruptions are emergent.</p> <p>Still, executives in all geographies continue to report an increasingly positive outlook on the economy and believe that their companies’ prospects have never been brighter.</p> <h3>The risk landscape shifts, and varies by region</h3> <p>With the second pandemic year well underway, the economic recovery is gaining momentum—or is expected to—in many parts of the world. But the latest survey results suggest that new pain points are emerging (Exhibit 1).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="As the pandemic recedes as an outsize risk to growth, inflation and supply-chain disruptions are more top of mind for respondents." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>The COVID-19 pandemic still tops the list of risks to economic growth in respondents’ countries, but the share of executives saying so has declined significantly. <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment">Compared with April</a>, respondents in developed economies also consider the pandemic a much less acute concern. Twenty-eight percent of them cite the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth, compared with half of their emerging-economy peers. In the previous survey, 65 percent in developed economies identified the pandemic as a risk to their countries’ growth.</p> <div data-module-category="" class="PullQuote_mck-c-pullquote__DbaQ5 mck-o-lg-center"><blockquote data-component="mdc-c-blockquote" class="PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote__6n21p PullQuote_mck-c-blockquote--hide-quotes__CpGpg mdc-c-blockquote mdc-c-blockquote--is-quotes___TozKo_2734c4f"><p>With the economic recovery gaining momentum in different parts of the world, more respondents are citing risks to growth other than the pandemic.</p></blockquote></div> <p>Meanwhile, the shares citing inflation—the second-most-common risk, identified nearly twice as often as in April—and supply-chain disruptions, have increased. Inflation has also risen in the ranks as a risk to growth in the <em>global </em>economy. It is now cited by 28 percent of respondents, up from 12 percent in March and 8 percent in December 2020—though on average, responses show that the pandemic remains a much bigger threat to global growth than anything else. At the same time, respondents say supply-chain disruptions pose a greater risk to their companies’ growth than in prior surveys (Exhibit 2). These disruptions now tie with weak customer demand as the most-common risk to company growth, cited by 28 percent—and up from 16 percent to 19 percent earlier this year.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Respondents cite supply-chain disruptions as a top risk to their companies’ growth and a more acute concern than before." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>By region, executives’ views on the biggest risks to growth at home have also shifted. In North America, respondents most often cite inflation as a risk to growth (45 percent say so), followed by supply-chain disruptions, domestic political conflicts, and rising taxes. And in Latin America, respondents cite domestic political conflicts more than the pandemic (43 percent, versus 32 percent).</p> <p>While unemployment concerns are ebbing on average—even in Europe, where since September 2020 respondents have been much more likely than others to expect rising unemployment—the picture is more mixed in a few geographies. Respondents in Asia–Pacific, India, and Latin America are nearly evenly split between those who expect the unemployment rates in their countries to increase and to decrease.</p> <p>Executives also believe that interest rates are poised to rise. Just over half of all respondents believe that their countries’ interest rates will increase in the next six months, up from 38 percent in the previous quarter. But respondents’ views vary significantly by region. In North America, 70 percent expect rising interest rates, followed by their peers in Latin America (64 percent), while in India, only 22 percent say the same.</p> <h3>Economic progress continues at home in most geographies—and in the global economy</h3> <p>On average, and everywhere but India and developing markets (including the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa), executives’ sentiment about their home economies continues to brighten. Seventy-three percent of all respondents say that conditions in their own economies are better now than they were six months ago, up from 53 percent in the previous quarter, which marked the first time in three years that a majority of respondents reported improving conditions at home.</p> <p>In many regions, majorities of respondents (and larger shares than in March) say their home economies have improved in recent months—most notably in Europe, where respondents are nearly three times as likely as in March to report improvements (Exhibit 3). By contrast, one-third of executives in India report improved conditions, down from 90 percent who said so last quarter. In developing markets, 40 percent of respondents say their home economies have improved, while 55 percent report worsening conditions.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="In most regions, a majority of respondents say their home economies have improved in recent months." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Likewise, respondents report significant improvements in the world economy, with 70 percent saying global economic conditions are better now than they were six months ago—the largest share to say so since we began asking the question more than ten years ago. And while emerging-economy respondents have been much more positive about the global economy than their developed-economy peers throughout the pandemic, their views are now nearly the same (Exhibit 4).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 4</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="The gap between emerging-economy and developed-economy views on global conditions has narrowed." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h3>Executives are more optimistic than ever</h3> <p>When asked about the months ahead, respondents report an even more positive outlook. Seventy-nine percent expect conditions in their home countries to improve in the next six months, and a majority of respondents in each region—even in India and other developing markets—expect improvements. Their global outlook is even more positive, and increasingly so, with 81 percent predicting improvements in the months ahead (Exhibit 5).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 5</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Throughout 2021, executives’ outlook on the global economy has been increasingly optimistic." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20june%202021/svgz-economicoutlookjune-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In another sign of optimism, respondents have chosen a more growth-oriented scenario as the likeliest outcome for their own economies—and compared with April, all three of the scenarios involve effective control of COVID-19, rather than recurrences of or failures to contain the virus (Exhibit 6).</p>  <p>We asked about nine scenarios on the pandemic’s economic impact, and for the first time since <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment">July 2020</a>, A3 (characterized by containment of the virus’s public-health impacts and a strong growth rebound and recovery) is cited most often—by 25 percent of respondents, up from 17 percent who said so in April. A3 replaces A1 (localized recurrences of the virus’s impact on health and slower near-term growth) as the most likely scenario. Only 19 percent of respondents now rank A1 as most likely, down from 29 percent previously. </p> <p>Finally, respondents say that their own companies’ prospects continue to improve. An increasing share expect that their workforce sizes will grow in the next few months, while 74 percent expect that company profits <em>and </em>demand for their companies’ offerings will increase in the next six months. On the demand front, this is the largest share to predict an increase since we began asking the question in <a href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/economic-conditions-snapshot-april-2009-mckinsey-global-survey-results">April 2009</a>.</p> <p><em>Download <a href="/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook june 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-june-2021-vf.pdf">Economic conditions outlook, June 2021: McKinsey Global Survey results</a> (PDF–696 KB).</em></p> <hr/> <p>This article was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="top-right" class="mck-o-edge-to-edge SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header___N7qG mck-c-module-wrapper"><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing"><div id="section-header-March" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper__CZEyB"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-12 SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-positioned__fIWpF"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-sm SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__wrapper-text__hSx1f"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10"><span>Survey</span></div><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__heading__2ePOu"><span>Economic conditions outlook, March 2021</span></h2></div><div class="SectionHeader_mck-c-section-header__section-holder__BaLti"></div></div></div></div></div></div> <h4>In a new global survey, executives see positive momentum building in the economy. But the pandemic still persists as an outsize risk to growth.</h4> <p><strong>One year after</strong> the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="7d52b77f-42a9-4b42-af8c-7bc1ed5deb2a"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">10</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="7d52b77f-42a9-4b42-af8c-7bc1ed5deb2a" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Media briefing on COVID-19, WHO director-general’s opening remarks,” World Health Organization, March 11, 2020, who.int.</span></span></span></a></span> the results of our newest McKinsey Global Survey signal greater optimism about the economy than respondents have expressed since the crisis began—and on a few fronts, than they have in several years.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="a7c4dc41-2e4a-4fa1-a86f-c3784bb93b3d"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">11</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="a7c4dc41-2e4a-4fa1-a86f-c3784bb93b3d" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The survey was in the field March 1 to March 5, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,018 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Fifty-three percent of executives say economic conditions in their home countries have improved in the past six months—the first time a majority has said so in three years. Their outlook on the economy’s future is even more positive, with an all-time record share of respondents predicting improvements in their countries’ economies over the next six months.</p> <p>As expectations brighten, the newest results also offer some clues on what the recovery could look like—or, at least, suggest that most companies will return to full operations later in 2021. At the companies that are fully operational now, executives say their ways of working have already changed in many respects and that these changes seem to have stuck. Still, weak demand continues to threaten corporate growth, and the pandemic remains the biggest risk to overall economic growth, both global and domestic.</p> <h3>A rise in economic optimism</h3> <p>Executives’ good feelings about the economy continue to grow, according to our latest survey. Half of all respondents believe that current conditions in the global economy are better now than they were six months ago (up from 43 percent in the previous quarter), and 53 percent say the same of conditions in their home countries (Exhibit 1)—<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-snapshot-march-2018-mckinsey-global-survey-results">the first time a majority has said so since March 2018</a>.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Executives see positive momentum building in the global economy and in their home countries." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Among geographies, executives in India and in Greater China remain the most positive about recent developments in their home economies—and those in Europe, the least so—which was also the case in December 2020 (Exhibit 2). The biggest improvement is in North America, where 59 percent of respondents now report better conditions at home, versus 39 percent in December. By contrast, their peers in Latin America are much likelier to report economic declines than they were previously.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex2-vf.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Among geographies, the regions reporting the most—and the least—positive views of their economies are the same as last quarter." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex2-vf.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Expectations for the future are even more upbeat. While the global outlook has wavered in recent months, respondents are more optimistic now about the world economy’s prospects than they’ve been at any other point during the crisis: 69 percent believe global economic conditions will improve, up from 56 percent in the previous survey. When asked about their countries’ economies, nearly three-quarters of executives expect improved conditions in the next six months, up from 56 percent in January—the highest share to say so since the pandemic began <em>and </em>since we began asking the question, in February 2004.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="ddcabddc-af80-4f97-8497-d120b37f0f9b"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">12</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="ddcabddc-af80-4f97-8497-d120b37f0f9b" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">In our latest survey, 74 percent of respondents say they expect their countries’ economies will be better six months from now. Since then, the highest shares to say so were 69 percent in February 2004, and 68 percent in December 2009, during the recovery from the 2007–08 financial crisis.</span></span></span></a></span> </p> <p>In every region but Latin America, where executives are still more optimistic than pessimistic, a majority of respondents expect improvements in the months ahead (Exhibit 3). And while emerging-economy respondents are more bullish on current conditions than their peers in developed economies—as they have been since June 2020—these groups are equally likely to report a very positive outlook on future conditions.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 3</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="In every region but Latin America, a majority of respondents expect improvements in their countries’ economies." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex3.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Unemployment concerns also seem to be subsiding, compared with the past few months when pluralities or outright majorities of respondents predicted an increasing unemployment rate at home. Now, 43 percent expect a decline while 38 percent expect an increase, though there are notable differences by region. A majority of respondents in Europe still anticipate rising unemployment (which was true in the past two surveys), while those in North America are the most likely of their peers to expect a <em>decrease</em> in unemployment: 69 percent say so, while only 16 percent in the region predict an increase.</p> <h3>How the corporate recovery is taking shape</h3> <p>At the company level, positive expectations are also hitting new highs (Exhibit 4). Sixty-three percent of executives believe that demand for their companies’ products and services will increase in the months ahead, versus 39 percent who said the same one year ago, while 65 percent expect their companies’ profits will increase—the largest share to say so in three years. Workforce expectations remain stable, with a plurality of respondents saying their head counts will stay the same as they have throughout the pandemic. Thirty-seven percent, however, expect their workforce size to increase—the largest share to say so since before the pandemic.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 4</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Optimism for company profitability and consumer demand hits new highs." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex4.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>While the share of respondents whose companies are fully operational again has grown in the past three quarters, most continue to say that they are not yet there. And, as in June 2020, when we first asked this question, the most common time frame for a return to full operations is seven to 12 months. During this time, we’ve also seen that respondents in developed economies are much more likely than their emerging-economy counterparts to say that they’re fully operational again, or that their business has not been disrupted by the pandemic (Exhibit 5).</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 5</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="For a few quarters, executives in developed economies have been likelier than their peers to say that their companies are fully operational." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex5.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>However, “fully operational” doesn’t mean that companies will be running as they did before the pandemic. Business operations have already changed in many respects. According to respondents at fully operational companies, the most significant changes they’ve made since returning are executing a larger share of their work virtually, accelerating the adoption of digital technologies, and serving a larger share of customers through digital channels. These happen to be the same top-three changes that respondents have reported since June 2020, when we first asked this question. And when asked about changing norms in specific areas of their business, executives are most likely to expect that after the recovery, the current, pandemic-era ways of working remotely, traveling for business, and using office space are the most likely to stick to some degree once the crisis is over (Exhibit 6)—though results vary by sector and by region.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 6</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="After the COVID-19 recovery, new ways of working, traveling for work, and using office space are seen as the likeliest changes to stick." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/economic%20conditions%20outlook%20march%202021/svgz-econsentimentexecmar21-ex6.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <h3>Consistent risks at the global, domestic, and company levels</h3> <p>Despite the overall optimism, the COVID-19 pandemic still looms largest as a risk to growth. It’s the top risk to growth in the global economy, followed by geopolitical instability, which were the most common risks cited in the past two quarters. The pandemic is also cited most often as a risk to economic growth in respondents’ countries, followed by unemployment and domestic political conflicts. It’s the most common risk in every region but Latin America and India, where respondents most often cite domestic political conflicts and unemployment, respectively. Executives in Latin America and in Europe continue to cite unemployment more often than their peers, as in the previous survey, although the shares saying so have fallen since January.</p> <p>For respondents’ own companies, weak demand remains the greatest threat to growth, though increasing industry competition has risen in the ranks. Across sectors, respondents in consumer packaged goods and retail are the most likely among their peers to say so: 41 percent cite it as a risk to company growth, versus 28 percent of those in all other industries.</p> <p><em>Download <a href="/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook march 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-march-2021-vf.pdf">Economic conditions outlook, March 2021: McKinsey Global Survey results</a> (PDF–757 KB).</em></p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f 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2021","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"d93b1c1a-6b75-4a86-ae9e-d7b4c92f2fcd","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":4,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Economic conditions outlook, 2021"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Executive sentiment ends the year on a generally positive note, with most survey respondents expecting 2022 to bring better economic conditions despite heightened risks from the pandemic and inflation."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2021-12-21T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[TableofContents]]\n[[SectionHeader Dec]]\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutive sentiment ends the year on a generally positive note, with most survey respondents expecting 2022 to bring better economic conditions despite heightened risks from the pandemic and inflation.\u003c/h4\u003e\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRespondents to the latest\u003c/strong\u003e McKinsey Global Survey on the economy end a largely optimistic year with mostly positive assessments of current conditions as well as expectations for 2022.[[footnote 1]] These relatively upbeat outlooks, both for the global economy and for respondents\u0026rsquo; countries, come despite a resurgence in concerns about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic: \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-economics-intelligence-executive-summary-november-2021\"\u003ecountries across Europe and North America had been reporting rising case numbers\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;since early October, and WHO \u003ca href=\"https://www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern\"\u003edeclared the Omicron variant to be one of concern\u003c/a\u003e just days before the survey launched. Respondents\u0026mdash;particularly those in Latin America and North America\u0026mdash;also see inflation as a pressing economic threat, along with rising interest rates. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect increasing rates in their countries in the first half of 2022\u0026mdash;the largest share we\u0026rsquo;ve seen to date in our surveys.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eThe year ends with positive sentiments but less optimism than midyear\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA majority of respondents say conditions in the global economy are better than they were six months ago, as has been true throughout 2021. The current share, 60 percent, is much larger than the 43 percent who reported improved conditions one year ago, though executives\u0026rsquo; positivity has tempered since June (Exhibit 1). Respondents\u0026rsquo; assessments of their countries\u0026rsquo; economies tell a similar story. Sixty-two percent say country conditions are better than they were six months ago, up from 49 percent who said at the end of 2020 that their economies had improved.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Dec1]]\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents in India, Greater China,[[footnote 2]] and Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific were the most likely to express positive views on the trajectory of domestic conditions, with at least three-quarters of respondents in each location reporting improvements compared with six months ago. By contrast, less than half of respondents in Latin America and other developing markets[[footnote 3]] say their countries\u0026rsquo; economies have improved (Exhibit 2). In Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific, that is a dramatic change from the September survey, when respondents there were the most negative of any region. Conversely, respondents in Europe have become much less upbeat since September.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Dec2]]\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents\u0026rsquo; views trace a similar arc when they look ahead to the next six months. Most (57 percent) expect both the global economy and their countries\u0026rsquo; economies to improve, though this proportion has declined since the summer (Exhibit 3). The shares of respondents predicting economic improvements, both globally and domestically, are similar in size to those in the December 2020 survey who expected improvement. As is true with current views on domestic conditions, respondents in India, Greater China, and Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific are the most optimistic: more than three-quarters in each of those locations predict improvements in their countries. Just 26 percent in Latin America say the same.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Dec3]]\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents\u0026rsquo; expectations for their own companies, too, are still largely positive even after trending downward since the summer. Sixty-four percent expect customer demand to increase in the next six months, down from 74 percent in the June survey. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect profits to increase, compared with 74 percent in June and September.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eRenewed concerns about COVID-19 as an economic threat\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe COVID-19 pandemic remains the most-cited risk to the global economy over the next 12 months, as it has been since WHO declared the outbreak a pandemic in March 2020. In a change from the October survey, respondents have once again cited the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth more than any other factor, as they have since early 2020. In October, before the Omicron variant emerged, supply-chain challenges briefly replaced the pandemic as the top risk.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe latest survey also asked executives to choose the likeliest of \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy\"\u003enine scenarios for the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s economic and health impact, both globally and in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries\u003c/a\u003e. Compared with the October survey, a larger share selected global and domestic scenarios with recurrences of the COVID-19 virus than scenarios with effective control of the virus\u0026rsquo;s spread.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents also commonly express concerns about inflation. For the first time since June 2012, when we began asking about inflation as a risk to global growth, respondents selected it as one of the top two most-cited risks. Inflation also ranks second, behind the pandemic, as a risk to domestic growth. Respondents in Latin America were most apt to call inflation a threat to domestic growth, as in October. Inflation has also become the primary concern of those in North America and developing markets (Exhibit 4). These concerns mark a striking change from one year ago, when geopolitical instability and high levels of national debt loomed as the second-most-cited threats to global and domestic growth, respectively, behind the pandemic.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Dec4]]\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents also see rising interest rates as an economic threat in the months ahead. For the first time since December 2018, rising interest rates are one of the five most-cited concerns for the global economy. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect increasing rates in their countries in the next six months\u0026mdash;the largest share ever captured in the survey, which first asked about interest rates in December 2016. Respondents in North America and Europe are much more likely now than in September to expect rising rates, whereas those in Greater China are now less likely to predict an increase (Exhibit 5).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Dec5]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDownload \u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook december 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-december-2021.pdf\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, December 2021\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;(PDF\u0026ndash;740 KB).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[SectionHeader Sept]]\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutives\u0026rsquo; sentiment on economic conditions continues to be positive, even as concerns mount\u0026mdash;yet again\u0026mdash;over the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s threat to growth.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEighteen months into the COVID-19 pandemic,\u003c/strong\u003e executives\u0026rsquo; responses to our latest \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys\"\u003eMcKinsey Global Survey\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;suggest that they believe the economy is on track toward a recovery.[[Footnote 4]] Throughout 2021, their views have, on average, been consistently positive: the economy is improving, and the future is brighter still. Compared with one year ago, respondents are more than twice as likely to say economic conditions in their home countries are better now than they were six months ago.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYet with the Delta variant affecting so many parts of the world, worries over the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s effects on the economy have resurfaced\u0026mdash;just one quarter after a historically low share of respondents cited it as a risk to domestic economic growth. Respondents are also more likely to identify supply-chain disruptions and inflation as risks. Compared with respondents in emerging economies, their peers in developed economies more often cite all three of these issues as threats to growth. They are also generally less upbeat about the economy and about their own companies\u0026rsquo; prospects in the months ahead.[[Footnote 5]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eOverall sentiment is consistently positive\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents in our latest survey continue to report largely positive views on the economy, at home and globally. Although after several consecutive surveys showing increasing confidence, the shares reporting improvements did not grow since last quarter (Exhibit 1). Sixty-seven percent of all respondents say conditions in their own economies have improved, down from 73 percent in June. \u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Sept1]]\n\u003cp\u003eAcross geographies, majorities of respondents in every region but Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific (where views are much more downbeat now than in June) say economic conditions in their home countries have improved in the past six months (Exhibit 2). Most notably since last quarter: sentiments in India have bounced back dramatically. Eighty-five percent of executives there now report improvements in their economy, up from 33 percent who said so previously. And while respondents in North America are less bullish than they were in June, two-thirds of respondents there still say conditions are better now than six months ago.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Sept2]]\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, expectations for improved economic conditions are holding steady, or even declining. Respondents are just as likely as in our July survey (71 percent) to predict that conditions in the global economy will improve in the next six months, down from an all-time high of 81 percent who said so in the previous quarter.[[Footnote 6]] When asked about their countries\u0026rsquo; economic prospects, 65 percent of respondents now say they expect improvements in their home economies, down from a range of 73 percent to 79 percent who have said so since March 2021. In some regions (namely, Europe and North America), views on the economy\u0026rsquo;s prospects are less buoyant than views on its present state. Fifty-one percent of respondents in North America believe economic conditions at home will improve in the next six months, compared with 66 percent who report improvements in the \u003cem\u003epast \u003c/em\u003esix months.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Disruptor1Up dis1]]\n\u003ch3\u003eThe economic risk of the COVID-19 pandemic resurfaces\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents increasingly see the COVID-19 pandemic as a threat to future economic growth in their countries. Last quarter, just 36 percent cited the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth over the next year\u0026mdash;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003ethe smallest share to say so since we began asking in March 2020\u003c/a\u003e. Now 49 percent of respondents say the same, up from 42 percent in our July survey.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe pandemic is followed by supply-chain disruptions and inflation, which were also among the top three risks to domestic growth in the past two surveys. By region, the pandemic is the top risk to growth in every region except Latin America and cited most often by those in developing markets and Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific (Exhibit 3).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Sept3]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe pandemic is now considered a more acute risk to global growth as well, after the share citing it has steadily declined in the past year (Exhibit 4). It\u0026rsquo;s cited by 59 percent of all respondents as a top risk to global economic growth, followed by geopolitical instability (43 percent)\u0026mdash;which has also risen in the ranks in the latest survey.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Sept4]]\n\u003ch3\u003eIn developed economies, perceptions are less positive\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe latest results suggest that last quarter\u0026rsquo;s outsize optimism among developed-economy respondents\u0026mdash;who, in June, reported much more positive sentiment than their peers in emerging economies\u0026mdash;was short lived. Now, respondents in emerging economies are again more likely to say that conditions have improved in their home economies, continuing the upward trend we\u0026rsquo;ve seen for much of the pandemic (Exhibit 5); that conditions have improved in the world economy; \u003cem\u003eand \u003c/em\u003ethat they believe domestic and global conditions will improve further in the months ahead. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis is true despite greater concerns over unemployment in emerging economies. On average, respondents still expect that a decrease in their countries\u0026rsquo; unemployment rates is more likely than an increase.[[Footnote 7]] Yet in emerging economies, 45 percent of executives believe their unemployment rates will increase, versus 18 percent in developed economies who say so. We saw similar results in July, when emerging-economy respondents were more than twice as likely as developed-economy respondents to expect their unemployment rates to rise.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Sept5]]\n\u003cp\u003eWith respect to risks, the COVID-19 pandemic is also seen as a more prominent threat to growth within developed economies. Fifty-two percent of executives in those economies cite the pandemic as a risk to growth in their own countries, compared with 45 percent in emerging economies. It\u0026rsquo;s nearly double the share who said so last quarter, when only 28 percent of developed-economy respondents\u0026mdash;versus 50 percent in emerging economies\u0026mdash;cited the pandemic. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinally, respondents in developed economies are less bullish than others on the company front (Exhibit 6). They are much less likely than their emerging-economy peers to expect the size of their companies\u0026rsquo; workforces to increase in the next six months, to expect an increase in demand for their companies\u0026rsquo; products and services, and to expect an increase in company profits.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit Sept6]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDownload \u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook september 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-september-2021.pdf\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, September 2021: McKinsey Global Survey results\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;(PDF\u0026ndash;1.07 MB).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[SectionHeader June]]\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutives\u0026rsquo; overall views on the economy continue to improve. As more and more economies are recovering from the pandemic, perceptions of potential risks are evolving.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePositive momentum continues\u003c/strong\u003e to build in many respondents\u0026rsquo; home countries and in the world economy, according to our latest McKinsey Global Survey\u0026nbsp;on economic conditions.[[Footnote 8]] Yet by geography, the results\u0026nbsp;reveal starkly different sentiments between developed economies (where more countries are experiencing or anticipating a recovery) and emerging economies (where several regions face ongoing public-health challenges).[[Footnote 9]] Executives in developed economies now report much more positive views than their counterparts\u0026mdash;a reversal from the first year of the pandemic\u0026mdash;as well as new threats to growth. As the pandemic recedes as an outsize and largely universal risk to the economy, respondents believe that inflation and supply-chain disruptions are emergent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eStill, executives in all geographies continue to report an increasingly positive outlook on the economy and believe that their companies\u0026rsquo; prospects have never been brighter.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eThe risk landscape shifts, and varies by region\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWith the second pandemic year well underway, the economic recovery is gaining momentum\u0026mdash;or is expected to\u0026mdash;in many parts of the world. But the latest survey results suggest that new pain points are emerging (Exhibit 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit June1]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe COVID-19 pandemic still tops the list of risks to economic growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries, but\nthe share of executives saying so has declined significantly. \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment\"\u003eCompared with April\u003c/a\u003e, respondents in developed economies also consider the pandemic a much less acute concern. Twenty-eight percent of them cite the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth, compared with half of their emerging-economy peers. In the previous survey, 65 percent in developed economies identified the pandemic as a risk to their countries\u0026rsquo; growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[PullQuote June1]]\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, the shares citing inflation\u0026mdash;the second-most-common risk, identified nearly twice as often as in April\u0026mdash;and supply-chain disruptions, have increased. Inflation has also risen in the ranks as a risk to growth in the \u003cem\u003eglobal \u003c/em\u003eeconomy. It is now cited by 28 percent of respondents, up from 12\u0026nbsp;percent in March and 8 percent in December 2020\u0026mdash;though on average, responses show that the pandemic remains a much bigger threat to global growth than anything else. At the same time, respondents say supply-chain disruptions pose a greater risk to their companies\u0026rsquo; growth than in prior surveys (Exhibit\u0026nbsp;2). These disruptions now tie with weak customer demand as the most-common risk to company growth, cited by\n28 percent\u0026mdash;and up from 16 percent to 19 percent earlier this year.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit June2]]\n\u003cp\u003eBy region, executives\u0026rsquo; views on the biggest risks to growth at home have also shifted. In North America, respondents most often cite inflation as a risk to growth (45 percent say so), followed by supply-chain disruptions, domestic political conflicts, and rising taxes. And in Latin America, respondents cite domestic political conflicts more than the pandemic (43 percent, versus 32 percent).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhile unemployment concerns are ebbing on average\u0026mdash;even in Europe, where since September 2020\u0026nbsp;respondents have been much more likely than others to expect rising unemployment\u0026mdash;the picture is more mixed in a few geographies. Respondents in Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific, India, and Latin America are nearly evenly split between those who expect the unemployment rates in their countries to increase and to decrease.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eExecutives also believe that interest rates are poised to rise. Just over half of all respondents believe that their countries\u0026rsquo; interest rates will increase in the next six months, up from 38\u0026nbsp;percent in the previous quarter. But respondents\u0026rsquo; views vary significantly by region. In North America, 70 percent expect rising interest rates, followed by their peers in Latin America (64 percent), while in India, only 22\u0026nbsp;percent say the same.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eEconomic progress continues at home in most geographies\u0026mdash;and in the global economy\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn average, and everywhere but India and developing markets (including the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa), executives\u0026rsquo; sentiment about their home economies continues to brighten. Seventy-three percent of all respondents say that conditions in their own economies are better now than they were six months ago, up from 53 percent in the previous quarter, which marked the first time in three years that a majority of respondents reported improving conditions at home.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn many regions, majorities of respondents (and larger shares than in March) say their home economies have improved in recent months\u0026mdash;most notably in Europe, where respondents are nearly three times as likely as in March to report improvements (Exhibit 3). By contrast, one-third of executives in India report improved conditions, down from 90 percent who said so last quarter. In developing markets, 40 percent of respondents say their home economies have improved, while 55\u0026nbsp;percent report worsening conditions.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit June3]]\n\u003cp\u003eLikewise, respondents report significant improvements in the world economy, with 70\u0026nbsp;percent saying global economic conditions are better now than they were six months ago\u0026mdash;the largest share to say so since we began asking the question more than ten years ago. And while emerging-economy respondents have been much more positive about the global economy than their developed-economy peers throughout the pandemic, their views are now nearly the same (Exhibit 4).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit June4]]\n\u003ch3\u003eExecutives are more optimistic than ever\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen asked about the months ahead, respondents report an even more positive outlook. Seventy-nine percent expect conditions in their home countries to improve in the next six months, and a majority of respondents in each region\u0026mdash;even in India and other developing markets\u0026mdash;expect improvements. Their global outlook is even more positive, and increasingly so, with 81 percent predicting improvements in the months ahead (Exhibit 5).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit June5]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn another sign of optimism, respondents have chosen a more growth-oriented scenario as the likeliest outcome for their own economies\u0026mdash;and compared with April, all three of the scenarios involve effective control of COVID-19, rather than recurrences of or failures to contain the virus (Exhibit 6).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros June6]]\n\u003cp\u003eWe asked about nine scenarios on the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s economic impact, and for the first time since \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment\"\u003eJuly 2020\u003c/a\u003e, A3 (characterized by containment of the virus\u0026rsquo;s public-health impacts and a strong growth rebound and recovery) is cited most often\u0026mdash;by 25 percent of respondents, up from 17 percent who said so in April. A3 replaces A1 (localized recurrences of the virus\u0026rsquo;s impact on health and slower near-term growth) as the most likely scenario. Only 19 percent of respondents now rank A1 as most likely, down from 29 percent previously. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinally, respondents say that their own companies\u0026rsquo; prospects continue to improve. An increasing share expect that their workforce sizes will grow in the next few months, while 74 percent expect that company profits \u003cem\u003eand \u003c/em\u003edemand for their companies\u0026rsquo; offerings will increase in the next six months. On the demand front, this is the largest share to predict an increase since we began asking the question in \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/economic-conditions-snapshot-april-2009-mckinsey-global-survey-results\"\u003eApril 2009\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDownload \u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook june 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-june-2021-vf.pdf\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, June 2021: McKinsey Global Survey results\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;(PDF\u0026ndash;696 KB).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[SectionHeader March]]\n\u003ch4\u003eIn a new global survey, executives see positive momentum building in the economy. But the pandemic still persists as an outsize risk to growth.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOne year after\u003c/strong\u003e the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic,[[footnote 10]] the results of our newest McKinsey Global Survey signal greater optimism about the economy than respondents have expressed since the crisis began\u0026mdash;and on a few fronts, than they have in several years.[[footnote 11]] Fifty-three percent of executives say economic conditions in their home countries have improved in the past six months\u0026mdash;the first time a majority has said so in three years. Their outlook on the economy\u0026rsquo;s future is even more positive, with an all-time record share of respondents predicting improvements in their countries\u0026rsquo; economies over the next six months.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs expectations brighten, the newest results also offer some clues on what the recovery could look like\u0026mdash;or, at least, suggest that most companies will return to full operations later in 2021. At the companies that are fully operational now, executives say their ways of working have already changed in many respects and that these changes seem to have stuck. Still, weak demand continues to threaten corporate growth, and the pandemic remains the biggest risk to overall economic growth, both global and domestic.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eA rise in economic optimism\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eExecutives\u0026rsquo; good feelings about the economy continue to grow, according to our latest survey. Half of all respondents believe that current conditions in the global economy are better now than they were six months ago (up from 43 percent in the previous quarter), and 53 percent say the same of conditions in their home countries (Exhibit 1)\u0026mdash;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-snapshot-march-2018-mckinsey-global-survey-results\"\u003ethe first time a majority has said so since March 2018\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit March1]]\n\u003cp\u003eAmong geographies, executives in India and in Greater China remain the most positive about recent developments in their home economies\u0026mdash;and those in Europe, the least so\u0026mdash;which was also the case in December 2020 (Exhibit 2). The biggest improvement is in North America, where 59 percent of respondents now report better conditions at home, versus 39 percent in December. By contrast, their peers in Latin America are much likelier to report economic declines than they were previously.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit March2]]\n\u003cp\u003eExpectations for the future are even more upbeat. While the global outlook has wavered in recent months, respondents are more optimistic now about the world economy\u0026rsquo;s prospects than they\u0026rsquo;ve been at any other point during the crisis: 69 percent believe global economic conditions will improve, up from 56 percent in the previous survey. When asked about their countries\u0026rsquo; economies, nearly three-quarters of executives expect improved conditions in the next six months, up from 56 percent in January\u0026mdash;the highest share to say so since the pandemic began \u003cem\u003eand \u003c/em\u003esince we began asking the question, in February 2004.[[footnote 12]]\n\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn every region but Latin America, where executives are still more optimistic than pessimistic, a majority of respondents expect improvements in the months ahead (Exhibit 3). And while emerging-economy respondents are more bullish on current conditions than their peers in developed economies\u0026mdash;as they have been since June 2020\u0026mdash;these groups are equally likely to report a very positive outlook on future conditions.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit March3]]\n\u003cp\u003eUnemployment concerns also seem to be subsiding, compared with the past few months when pluralities or outright majorities of respondents predicted an increasing unemployment rate at home. Now, 43 percent expect a decline while 38 percent expect an increase, though there are notable differences by region. A majority of respondents in Europe still anticipate rising unemployment (which was true in the past two surveys), while those in North America are the most likely of their peers to expect a \u003cem\u003edecrease\u003c/em\u003e in unemployment: 69 percent say so, while only 16 percent in the region predict an increase.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eHow the corporate recovery is taking shape\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt the company level, positive expectations are also hitting new highs (Exhibit 4). Sixty-three percent of executives believe that demand for their companies\u0026rsquo; products and services will increase in the months ahead, versus 39 percent who said the same one year ago, while 65 percent expect their companies\u0026rsquo; profits will increase\u0026mdash;the largest share to say so in three years. Workforce expectations remain stable, with a plurality of respondents saying their head counts will stay the same as they have throughout the pandemic. Thirty-seven percent, however, expect their workforce size to increase\u0026mdash;the largest share to say so since before the pandemic.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit March4]]\n\u003cp\u003eWhile the share of respondents whose companies are fully operational again has grown in the past three quarters, most continue to say that they are not yet there. And, as in June 2020, when we first asked this question, the most common time frame for a return to full operations is seven to 12 months. During this time, we\u0026rsquo;ve also seen that respondents in developed economies are much more likely than their emerging-economy counterparts to say that they\u0026rsquo;re fully operational again, or that their business has not been disrupted by the pandemic (Exhibit 5).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit March5]]\n\u003cp\u003eHowever, \u0026ldquo;fully operational\u0026rdquo; doesn\u0026rsquo;t mean that companies will be running as they did before the pandemic. Business operations have already changed in many respects. According to respondents at fully operational companies, the most significant changes they\u0026rsquo;ve made since returning are executing a larger share of their work virtually, accelerating the adoption of digital technologies, and serving a larger share of customers through digital channels. These happen to be the same top-three changes that respondents have reported since June 2020, when we first asked this question. And when asked about changing norms in specific areas of their business, executives are most likely to expect that after the recovery, the current, pandemic-era ways of working remotely, traveling for business, and using office space are the most likely to stick to some degree once the crisis is over (Exhibit 6)\u0026mdash;though results vary by sector and by region.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit March6]]\n\u003ch3\u003eConsistent risks at the global, domestic, and company levels\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite the overall optimism, the COVID-19 pandemic still looms largest as a risk to growth. It\u0026rsquo;s the top risk to growth in the global economy, followed by geopolitical instability, which were the most common risks cited in the past two quarters. The pandemic is also cited most often as a risk to economic growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries, followed by unemployment and domestic political conflicts. It\u0026rsquo;s the most common risk in every region but Latin America and India, where respondents most often cite domestic political conflicts and unemployment, respectively. Executives in Latin America and in Europe continue to cite unemployment more often than their peers, as in the previous survey, although the shares saying so have fallen since January.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor respondents\u0026rsquo; own companies, weak demand remains the greatest threat to growth, though increasing industry competition has risen in the ranks. Across sectors, respondents in consumer packaged goods and retail are the most likely among their peers to say so: 41 percent cite it as a risk to company growth, versus 28 percent of those in all other industries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDownload \u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/economic conditions outlook march 2021/economic-conditions-outlook-march-2021-vf.pdf\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, March 2021: McKinsey Global Survey results\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;(PDF\u0026ndash;757 KB).\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"View the surveys"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Survey"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2021-09-29T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from November 29 to December 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 955 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes respondents in Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from August 30 to September 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 958 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSince March 2011, we have asked respondents how they expect conditions in the global economy to change over the next six months. In the COVID-19 pandemic\u0026rsquo;s second year, record shares of respondents have predicted improvements in the global economy (starting in March 2021, with 69 percent of respondents); before then, the largest share to predict improvements was in December 2020 (62 percent).\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eForty-five percent of all respondents say they expect that the unemployment rate in their home countries will decrease in the next six months, and 27 percent expect it will increase. In our July survey, 54 percent expected unemployment to decrease, while 26 percent expected it to increase.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from May 31 to June 4, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,010 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor more on the state of the economy, see \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-economics-intelligence-executive-summary-may-2021\"\u003eGlobal Economics Intelligence executive summary, May 2021\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; June 9, 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Media briefing on COVID-19, WHO director-general\u0026rsquo;s opening remarks,\u0026rdquo; World Health Organization, March 11, 2020, who.int.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe survey was in the field March 1 to March 5, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,018 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIn our latest survey, 74 percent of respondents say they expect their countries\u0026rsquo; economies will be better six months from now. Since then, the highest shares to say so were 69 percent in February 2004, and 68 percent in December 2009, during the recovery from the 2007\u0026ndash;08 financial crisis.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Strategy \u0026 Corporate Finance"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eThe survey content and analysis were developed by \u003cstrong\u003eAlan FitzGerald,\u003c/strong\u003e a director of client capabilities in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s New York office; \u003cstrong\u003eVivien Singer,\u003c/strong\u003e a capabilities and insights expert at the Waltham Client Capabilities Hub; and \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/sven-smit\"\u003eSven Smit\u003c/a\u003e,\u003c/strong\u003e a cochair and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner in the Amsterdam office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Survey"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Survey"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"In the latest survey, inflation and geopolitical conflicts remain the top perceived economic risks, while concerns about energy volatility predominate in Europe."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic 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