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data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="dark" data-module-background="deep-blue" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-o-edge-to-edge FiftyFiftyHero_mck-c-fifty-fifty-hero__wrapper__74aGq"><div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mdc-u-grid"><div class="FiftyFiftyHero_mck-c-fifty-fifty-hero__dI9Yx"><style></style><div data-component="mdc-c-background-image" class="mdc-c-bg-image___GJdv1_2734c4f background-image-fifty-fifty-hero-undefined FiftyFiftyHero_mck-c-fifty-fifty-hero__media__TroHX FiftyFiftyHero_mck-c-fifty-fifty-hero__media--absolute__YlXtV"></div><div class="FiftyFiftyHero_mck-c-fifty-fifty-hero__wrapper-text__13v1d FiftyFiftyHero_mck-c-fifty-fifty-hero__wrapper-text--default-style__TJLUl mdc-u-spaced-mobile"><div class="mdc-u-grid"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f"><h1 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-2"><div>The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment</div></h1><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10"><div class="mck-u-links-inline mck-c-generic-item__description"><time datetime="2022-09-30T00:00:00Z">September 30, 2022</time> | Survey</div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-7 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-10"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">In the latest survey, inflation and geopolitical conflicts remain the top perceived economic risks, while concerns about energy volatility predominate in Europe.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Fbusiness%20functions%2Fstrategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%2Four%20insights%2Fthe%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment%2Fseptember%202022%2Fthe-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment-september-2022_final.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment-september-2022_final" data-layer-report-name="the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment-september-2022_final>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (3 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <h2>September 2022</h2> <p><strong>In September, </strong>respondents in most regions cite inflation as the main risk to growth in their home economies for the second quarter, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="daceee26-25df-4830-9772-f436d8d5faae"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="daceee26-25df-4830-9772-f436d8d5faae" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from August 29 to September 2, 2022, and garnered responses from 1,247 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> In all locations but Europe and Greater China, inflation is the most-cited threat to respondents’ economies over the next 12 months (Exhibit 1). In Europe, volatile energy prices and inflation are the growth risks cited most often, with geopolitical instability or conflicts a more distant third. In Greater China,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="894f7ff8-bb64-43db-a9ea-d00739ac5e1d"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="894f7ff8-bb64-43db-a9ea-d00739ac5e1d" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> the COVID-19 pandemic remains the most reported risk, cited by nearly half of respondents for the second quarter in a row.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/september%202022/svgz-covid-econoutlook-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Inflation remains top of mind as a risk to respondents’ economies, except in Europe and Greater China." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/september%202022/svgz-covid-econoutlook-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Similar to the June survey’s findings, about four in ten respondents expect their countries’ economies to improve over the next six months, with a similar share expecting conditions to worsen. However, expectations vary by region (Exhibit 2). Respondents in Asia–Pacific and Europe are less likely than in June to say their countries’ economies will improve, while respondents in other developing markets have become more hopeful.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/september%202022/svgz-covid-econoutlook-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Respondents in Europe and Asia–Pacific are less likely than in June to expect improving economies, while the reverse is true in developing markets." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/september%202022/svgz-covid-econoutlook-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Pessimism about the <a href="/mgi/our-research/why-the-path-of-global-wealth-and-growth-matters-for-strategy">global economy</a> remains consistent with the previous findings, with about half of respondents expecting global conditions to weaken in the next six months. For the third quarter this year, geopolitical instability and conflicts remain the most-cited risk to global economic growth, and inflation remains the second-most-cited threat. In a change from June, volatile energy prices have superseded supply chain disruptions as the third-most-cited risk.</p> <hr/> <p><strong>About the authors</strong></p> <p>The survey content and analysis were developed by <strong>Jeffrey Condon</strong>, a senior knowledge expert in McKinsey’s Atlanta office; <strong>Krzysztof Kwiatkowski</strong> and <strong>Vivien Singer</strong>, both capabilities and insights experts at the Waltham Client Capabilities Hub; and <strong><a href="/our-people/sven-smit">Sven Smit</a></strong>, the chair and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner in the Amsterdam office.</p> <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an editor in the Atlanta office.</p>  <br/> <br/> <h2>June 2022</h2> <h4>A new survey finds that inflation now tops the list of perceived economic hazards in respondents’ home countries and geopolitical conflicts remain a top threat to the global economy.</h4> <p><strong>Just one quarter</strong> after geopolitical conflicts and instability overtook the COVID-19 pandemic as the leading risk to economic growth, survey respondents’ concerns over inflation now exceed their worries about the effects of geopolitical issues on their countries’ economies. In the latest <a href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys">McKinsey Global Survey</a> on economic conditions, respondents most often cite inflation as a risk over the next year.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="5b1382d2-a4e1-4bcf-8de2-bd792f8aca57"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="5b1382d2-a4e1-4bcf-8de2-bd792f8aca57" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from June 6 to June 10, 2022, and garnered responses from 899 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> They are now nearly half as likely as they were in the previous survey to cite geopolitical issues as a risk to their countries’ economies. However, geopolitical conflicts and instability remain an outsize concern in Europe, where 50 percent list it among their top risks. But even in Europe, inflation is the risk cited most often—as it is in every geography except Greater China.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="6d1c441e-e780-4dcd-9e7e-be4372e2f084"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="6d1c441e-e780-4dcd-9e7e-be4372e2f084" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Greater China” includes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> There, respondents most often point to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>  <p>Geopolitical instability remains the top-cited threat to the global economy, as it was in the March 2022 survey, and inflation has overtaken volatile energy prices to become the second-most-cited concern. Supply chain disruptions round out the top three global risks, followed by volatile energy prices and rising interest rates.</p> <p>Overall, pessimism about the second half of 2022 is on par with the early months of the pandemic in 2020, when more than half of respondents predicted that global economic conditions would worsen in the months ahead. In the latest survey, half of all respondents expect global conditions to worsen over the next six months, and 29 percent expect improvement. Respondents’ expectations for their home countries are somewhat more hopeful than their outlook on the global economy: 39 percent expect their economies to improve in the near future. However, this is the first survey since the one in September 2020 in which less than half of respondents expect improvements in their home economies. Now, they are just as likely to expect economic conditions will decline as improve.</p> <p>Most respondents in Asia–Pacific and Greater China expect their economies to improve in the second half of 2022, although overall optimism has declined since the previous survey. Over the same time period, respondents in Europe and North America have become much more pessimistic about the future.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span>Interactive</span></div></div></div><div aria-labelledby="" aria-describedby="exhibit-description-[object Object]" class="ExhibitCarousel_mck-c-exhibit-carousel__swiper-holder__LbscG mdc-u-spaced-mobile mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><div class="swiper" dir="ltr"><div slot="container-start"><div class="ExhibitCarousel_mck-c-exhibit-carousel__nav-controls__RPkbK ExhibitCarousel_mck-c-exhibit-carousel__nav-controls--align-center__vhpOW"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="exhibit-carousel-prev" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--tertiary___zPM6q_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-small___uvMIB_2734c4f ExhibitCarousel_mck-c-exhibit-carousel__nav-button__LTVNi"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--align-left mck-arrow-left-icon"></span></button><div class="ExhibitCarousel_mck-c-exhibit-carousel__nav-counter__03cOV"><span>0</span><span class="ExhibitCarousel_mck-c-exhibit-carousel__nav-counter-seprator__HkOnW">—</span><span>02</span></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="exhibit-carrousel-next" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--tertiary___zPM6q_2734c4f mdc-c-button--size-small___uvMIB_2734c4f ExhibitCarousel_mck-c-exhibit-carousel__nav-button__LTVNi"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--align-right___94-AR_2734c4f mck-arrow-right-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="swiper-wrapper"><div class="swiper-slide swiper-slide-duplicate" data-swiper-slide-index="1"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><source media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Most survey respondents in Asia–Pacific and Greater China expect economic improvements at home, although overall optimism has declined." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="swiper-slide" data-swiper-slide-index="0"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><source media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Survey respondents increasingly cite inflation as a risk to their countries’ economies, and more see it as a threat than they do geopolitical conflicts." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="swiper-slide" data-swiper-slide-index="1"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><source media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Most survey respondents in Asia–Pacific and Greater China expect economic improvements at home, although overall optimism has declined." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="swiper-slide swiper-slide-duplicate" data-swiper-slide-index="0"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><source media="(max-width: 767px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Survey respondents increasingly cite inflation as a risk to their countries’ economies, and more see it as a threat than they do geopolitical conflicts." src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/the%20coronavirus%20effect%20on%20global%20economic%20sentiment/june%202022/svgz-econoutlookjune-ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an editor in the Atlanta office.</p> <br/> <h2>March 2022</h2> <h4>Worries about geopolitical conflicts, among other risks to growth, now exceed executives' concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall economic optimism continues to decline.</h4> <p><strong>Geopolitical instability</strong> is now cited as the top risk to growth in respondents’ countries, according to our latest <a href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys">McKinsey Global Survey</a> on economic conditions.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="d5be1903-ab29-4f65-ace4-b89bd6d63b24"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="d5be1903-ab29-4f65-ace4-b89bd6d63b24" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from February 28 to March 4, 2022, and garnered responses from 785 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP. </span></span></span></a></span> Our quarterly survey was launched four days after the invasion of Ukraine, and executives expect that its economic effects will be strongly felt.</p> <p>More than half of all executives cite geopolitical conflicts as a risk to near-term growth in their own economies, up from 16 percent who said so in the previous survey. It’s the top risk to domestic growth in every geography except Greater China,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="141c338c-65d9-4c82-87ed-c005d9be5754"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="141c338c-65d9-4c82-87ed-c005d9be5754" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> where respondents most often cite the COVID-19 pandemic.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="b273d533-671f-4332-8af0-c21e96ca0165"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">7</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="b273d533-671f-4332-8af0-c21e96ca0165" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Thirty-nine percent of respondents in Greater China cite the COVID-19 pandemic as one of the biggest risks to domestic growth over the next 12 months, compared with 5 percent of respondents in all other regions who say the same.</span></span></span></a></span> Meanwhile, the share of respondents citing the COVID-19 pandemic as a top risk fell from 47 percent to 11 percent, as much larger percentages now identify inflation, energy prices, and supply chain disruptions as threats to growth at home.</p> <p>At the same time, overall economic sentiment remains more positive than negative but continues to trend downward. For the third quarter in a row, respondents are less likely to believe that economic conditions, either global or domestic, will improve in the months ahead—and the global outlook is especially gloomy.</p> <p>Forty-three percent of respondents believe the global economy will improve over the next six months, a share that’s nearly equal to the 40 percent who feel conditions will worsen. This month’s result also marks the first time since July 2020 that less than a majority of respondents feel optimistic about the global economy’s prospects.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an executive editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>December 2021</h2> <h4>Executive sentiment ends the year on a generally positive note, with most survey respondents expecting 2022 to bring better economic conditions despite heightened risks from the pandemic and inflation.</h4> <p><strong>Respondents to the latest</strong> McKinsey Global Survey on the economy end a largely optimistic year with mostly positive expectations for 2022.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="505a0c99-7e47-4d86-8b84-bb050d6f81fe"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">8</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="505a0c99-7e47-4d86-8b84-bb050d6f81fe" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from November 29 to December 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 955 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> These relatively upbeat outlooks, both for the global economy and for respondents’ countries, come despite a resurgence in concerns about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic: countries across Europe and North America had been <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-economics-intelligence-executive-summary-november-2021">reporting rising case numbers since early October</a>, and WHO declared the Omicron variant to be one of concern just days before the survey launched.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="61adab03-bdc3-47e4-b0d5-f0ff03f62036"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">9</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="61adab03-bdc3-47e4-b0d5-f0ff03f62036" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern,” WHO, November 26, 2021.</span></span></span></a></span> Respondents—particularly those in Latin America and North America—also see inflation as a pressing economic threat.</p> <p>A majority of respondents (57 percent) expect both the global economy and their countries’ economies to improve in the next six months, though this proportion has declined since the summer. The shares of respondents predicting economic improvements, both globally and domestically, are similar in size to those in the December 2020 survey who expected improvement. Respondents in India, Greater China, and Asia–Pacific are the most optimistic: more than three-quarters in each of those locations predict improvements in their countries. Just 26 percent in Latin America say the same.</p> <p>Respondents’ expectations for their own companies tell a similar story: they are still largely positive even after trending downward since the summer. Sixty-four percent expect customer demand to increase in the next six months, down from 74 percent in the June survey. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect profits to increase, compared with 74 percent in June and September.</p> <p>In a change from the October survey, respondents have once again cited the COVID-19 pandemic as a risk to domestic growth more than any other factor, as they have in every other survey since early 2020. In October, before the Omicron variant emerged, supply-chain challenges briefly replaced the pandemic as the top risk. The latest survey also asked executives to choose the likeliest of nine scenarios for the pandemic’s economic and health impact, both globally and in respondents’ countries. Compared with the October survey, a larger share selected global and domestic scenarios with recurrences of the COVID-19 virus than scenarios with effective control of the virus’s spread.</p> <p>Respondents also commonly express concerns about inflation. Respondents selected inflation as one of the top two most-cited risks to domestic growth, behind the pandemic. Respondents in Latin America were most apt to call inflation a threat to growth, as in October. Inflation has also become the primary concern of those in North America and developing markets. These concerns mark a striking change from one year ago, when geopolitical instability and high levels of national debt loomed as the second-most-cited threats to global and domestic growth, respectively, behind the pandemic.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>October 2021</h2> <h4>Supply-chain disruptions now outweigh COVID-19 concerns as the biggest risks executives see to domestic and corporate growth.</h4> <p><strong>In a change </strong>from the first three quarters in 2021, uncertainty over COVID-19 is no longer a foremost economic concern to executives, according to the latest <a href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys">McKinsey Global Survey</a>.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="177bdae9-ff8f-427b-a942-9e9be2898a78"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">10</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="177bdae9-ff8f-427b-a942-9e9be2898a78" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from October 11 to October 15, 2021, and garnered responses from 902 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> When asked about threats to growth in their countries’ economies, executives now cite mounting fallout on the supply chain—which is also the most common risk to <em>company</em> growth—and inflation more often than the pandemic itself. Having endured as the most-cited risk to domestic growth since March 2020, the pandemic is now cited by just one-quarter of respondents: half the share who did so in September 2021.</p> <p>A larger share of respondents also now anticipate that the virus’s effect on public health will be reined in over the coming months. When asked about <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy">nine scenarios on the pandemic’s GDP effects</a> in their countries, they are much more likely than in the previous survey to select a scenario in which the effective public-health responses contain the virus’s impact. This month’s most commonly chosen scenario, B1, assumes virus containment as well as ineffective economic intervention. In the previous two surveys, respondents most often ranked the A1 scenario, which envisions recurrences of the virus, as the likeliest one.</p> <p>By the same token, many respondents expect their companies to emerge from the pandemic more resilient than before. Nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of respondents say their companies are more prepared for future crises now than they were before the pandemic. These reflections come as executives’ outlooks for their companies’ profits and customer demand continue to be largely positive. For the first time since July 2004, half of respondents expect their organizations’ workforces to grow over the next six months.</p> <p>At the same time that hiring is expected to increase, respondents also anticipate talent shortages. After supply-chain disruptions, <a href="/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/great-attrition-or-great-attraction-the-choice-is-yours">labor shortages</a> are the second-most-cited risk to company growth over the next year, and they are the top concern among respondents in North America.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="042941bd-a167-441c-a3f6-1b1f3b5ab21d"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">11</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="042941bd-a167-441c-a3f6-1b1f3b5ab21d" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">In the October survey, we asked about labor shortages for the first time in both questions about risks to growth. </span></span></span></a></span> These shortages also rank as a top-five risk to economic growth in respondents’ own countries.</p> <p>And while overall expectations for the global economy and respondents’ countries remain rosy, respondents’ optimism has declined since the summer. Sixty-four percent of respondents expect global conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 71 percent in July and September.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>September 2021</h2> <h4>Executives’ sentiment on economic conditions continues to be positive, even as concerns mount—yet again—over the pandemic’s threat to growth.</h4> <p><strong>Eighteen months into the COVID-19 pandemic, </strong>executives’ responses to our latest <a href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys">McKinsey Global Survey</a> suggest that they believe the economy is on track toward a recovery.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="a70f337a-ba56-4207-ae50-801853d0f414"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">12</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="a70f337a-ba56-4207-ae50-801853d0f414" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from August 30 to September 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 958 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Throughout 2021, their views have, on average, been consistently positive. And they continue to report largely positive expectations: 71 percent of respondents predict that conditions in the global economy will improve in the next six months, down from an all-time high of <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021">81 percent who said so last quarter</a>.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="caede1ad-d670-4e7d-8de9-14261e2862b3"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">13</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="caede1ad-d670-4e7d-8de9-14261e2862b3" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Since March 2011, we have asked respondents how they expect conditions in the global economy to change over the next six months. In the COVID-19 pandemic’s second year, record shares of respondents have predicted improvements in the global economy (starting in March 2021, with 69 percent of respondents); before then, the largest share to predict improvements was in December 2020 (62 percent).</span></span></span></a></span> When asked about their countries’ economic prospects, most respondents still expect improvements, but that share has also decreased. Sixty-five percent of respondents now say so, down from a range of 73 to 79 percent who have said so since <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021">March 2021</a>. </p> <p>Yet with the Delta variant affecting so many parts of the world, worries over the pandemic’s effects on the economy have also reemerged—just one quarter after a historically low share of respondents cited it as a risk to domestic economic growth. In June, just 36 percent cited the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth over the next year; it was <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">the smallest share to say so since we began asking, in March 2020</a>. Now, 49 percent of respondents say the same, up from 42 percent in July. </p> <p>The pandemic is followed by supply-chain disruptions and inflation, which were also among the top-three risks to domestic growth in the past two surveys. By region, the pandemic is the top risk in every region except Latin America. Respondents in developed economies also see it as a more prominent threat to growth than those in emerging economies. Fifty-two percent of developed-economy executives see the pandemic as a risk to growth in their own countries—nearly double the share who said so last quarter—compared with 45 percent in emerging economies. </p> <p>The responses in developed economies suggest other concerns as well. For the first time since January, these executives are less likely than others to expect improving conditions in their home economies. </p> <p>They are also less upbeat about their companies’ prospects. Respondents in developed economies are much less likely than their emerging-economy peers to expect an increase in the size of their companies’ workforces in the next six months, an increase in demand for their companies’ products and services, and an increase in company profits. </p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021">Economic conditions outlook, September 2021</a>.”</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>July 2021</h2> <h4>Executives’ views on the global economy have tempered, but expectations remain largely positive.</h4> <p><strong>Optimism about the global economy</strong> has moderated but remains the predominant sentiment among executives, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="dae3c623-8907-4237-b86c-48816c2915c1"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">14</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="dae3c623-8907-4237-b86c-48816c2915c1" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from July 12 to July 16, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,002 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Seventy-one percent expect improvement in the next six months, down from 81 percent in June, breaking the streak of increasingly positive views that began at the start of 2021. Whereas in the previous survey respondents in developed and emerging economies were equally upbeat about global conditions,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="581bd98b-1221-4413-add8-8e8e2d5ce949"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">15</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="581bd98b-1221-4413-add8-8e8e2d5ce949" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">In June, 81 percent of developed-economy respondents expected improvement, as did 82 percent of emerging-economy respondents.</span></span></span></a></span> developed-economy respondents have become more measured. Sixty-five percent expect the global economy to improve in the next few months, compared with 83 percent of emerging-economy respondents.</p> <p>Despite more cautious optimism about the world economy, expectations for respondents’ home countries remain just as upbeat as in June. Nearly eight in ten respondents (78 percent)—including a majority in each region—expect their countries’ economies to improve in the next six months, as was true in the June survey.</p> <p>Respondents also express declining optimism at the global level when asked about nine scenarios for the pandemic’s effects on global GDP. As in June, they most often choose the A1 scenario—in which there are recurrences of the virus and slower near-term growth—although a significantly smaller share of respondents now see it as the most likely scenario. The B2 scenario, involving similar virus recurrence and less-effective economic policy, has become the second most cited, surpassing the virus-containment scenarios A3 and B1 that were more common selections in the June survey. Respondents in the latest survey are also more likely to cite a scenario in which there are high levels of adverse health impact (B3, B4, and B5).</p>  <p>When asked about scenarios for their countries’ economies, respondents are much more likely now than in June to pick scenarios that involve virus recurrence. A1 is the most commonly chosen scenario, overtaking virus-containment scenario A3. Only respondents in Greater China continue to select A3 most often.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="528f54db-0c10-45db-8c47-56b6ec07f59d"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">16</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="528f54db-0c10-45db-8c47-56b6ec07f59d" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> Overall, a larger share of respondents now see the likeliest scenario as B1—in which there is virus containment but an ineffective economic-policy response—rather than A3.</p> <p>Yet respondents continue to report increasing optimism about their countries’ unemployment rates in the months ahead. The share expecting unemployment to rise (26 percent) is the lowest since before the pandemic, and respondents are now more than twice as likely to expect unemployment to decrease than increase. Even respondents in Latin America—the only region where in June, a forecast of increasing unemployment was more likely than a decrease—have become much more likely to expect unemployment rates to decrease. Conversely, respondents in developing markets<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="eb134b25-08d5-427d-b53a-31da64fb9dba"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">17</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="eb134b25-08d5-427d-b53a-31da64fb9dba" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes respondents in the Middle East and North Africa.</span></span></span></a></span> and India have become less likely to say unemployment in their countries will go down. In India, unemployment has become one of the three most-cited risks to domestic growth in the coming months, along with the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation.</p> <p>More broadly, respondents continue to see the pandemic, inflation, and supply-chain disruptions as the top three threats to their countries’ economic growth, respectively, as was true in June. But since the previous survey, the pandemic has become a larger concern for respondents in developed economies: whereas in June they most commonly said inflation was a top risk, they now cite the pandemic most often. For example, while inflation still outranks COVID-19 among respondents in North America, the share citing the pandemic as a threat has doubled (30 percent, up from 15 percent).</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>June 2021</h2> <h4>Executives’ overall views on the economy continue to improve. As more and more economies are recovering from the pandemic, perceptions of potential risks are evolving.</h4> <p><strong>Positive momentum continues to build</strong> in many respondents’ home countries and in the world economy, according to our latest <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021">McKinsey Global Survey</a> on economic conditions.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="e2791f7c-d0c0-40f4-b38f-9e4b1f301bb8"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">18</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="e2791f7c-d0c0-40f4-b38f-9e4b1f301bb8" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from May 31 to June 4, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,010 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Yet by geography, some differences have emerged. Executives in developed economies report increasingly positive views compared with their emerging-economy counterparts—a reversal from the pandemic’s first year—as well as new threats to economic growth.</p> <p>The COVID-19 pandemic still tops the list of risks to growth in respondents’ countries, but the share of executives saying so has declined significantly. <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment">Compared with April</a>, respondents in developed economies also consider the pandemic a much less acute concern. Twenty-eight percent of them cite the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth, compared with half of their emerging-economy peers. In the previous survey, 65 percent of respondents in developed economies identified the pandemic as a risk to their countries’ growth.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the shares of respondents citing inflation—the second-most-common risk, identified nearly twice as often as in April—and supply-chain disruptions have increased. Inflation has also risen in the ranks as a risk to growth in the <em>global</em> economy, though on average, responses show that the pandemic remains a much bigger threat to global growth than anything else. At the same time, respondents say supply-chain disruptions pose a greater risk to their companies’ growth than in prior surveys.</p> <p>When asked about overall economic conditions in the months ahead, executives report an increasingly positive outlook. Seventy-nine percent expect conditions in their home countries to improve in the next six months, and a majority of respondents in each region expect improvements. Their global outlook is even more positive, with 81 percent predicting improvements in the months ahead.</p> <p>Finally, respondents say that their own companies’ prospects continue to improve. An increasing share expects that their workforce sizes will grow in the next few months, while 74 percent expect that company profits <em>and</em> demand for their companies’ offerings will increase in the next six months. On the demand front, this is the largest share to predict an increase since we began asking the question in <a href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/economic-conditions-snapshot-april-2009-mckinsey-global-survey-results">April 2009</a>.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021">Economic conditions outlook, June 2021</a>.”</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>April 2021</h2> <h4>Though the pandemic overshadows other risks to growth, optimism about the economy persists and company prospects continue to brighten, especially on the hiring front.</h4> <p><strong>In our latest <a href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys">McKinsey Global Survey</a> on the economy,</strong><span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="e358fc1e-9913-439b-8993-0a336ce2981b"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">19</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="e358fc1e-9913-439b-8993-0a336ce2981b" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field April 12 to April 16, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,199 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> executives’ views are as decidedly positive <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021">as they were in March</a>—even as the pandemic continues to dwarf other risks to growth. It’s an especially acute risk in India, where the week after the survey was in the field, the number of daily COVID-19 cases set a new world record.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="c764a992-9292-4b6c-ada9-9e4f8fec407e"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">20</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="c764a992-9292-4b6c-ada9-9e4f8fec407e" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">During the week of April 19, the number of new COVID-19 cases per day exceeded 300,000 in India. As of April 27, 2021, India has recorded more than 5.7 million new COVID-19 cases in the month of April; Coronavirus world map: Tracking the global outbreak, <em>New York Times</em>, April 28, 2021, nytimes.com.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Globally, 73 percent of all respondents believe that conditions in the world economy will improve in the next six months. It’s the largest share to say so all year, while the share of executives expecting worsening conditions has shrunk by more than half in the past three months: 10 percent say so now, down from 23 percent in January.</p> <p>The domestic outlook is equally upbeat and consistent across regions, even outside of Greater China<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="6d282420-e544-45cd-b51e-1ca426438557"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">21</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="6d282420-e544-45cd-b51e-1ca426438557" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> or India—where, for eight surveys in a row, respondents were the most optimistic about their own economy’s prospects. Notably, respondents in India reported the biggest shift in sentiment since the previous survey. Though they are still more positive than not about their economy, the share expecting improved conditions in the next six months dropped from 86 percent in March to 64 percent currently.</p> <p>As we saw in March, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to overshadow all other risks to domestic growth and now tops the list in every geography.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="070aebb2-1a5c-4471-b942-233d86021788"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">22</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="070aebb2-1a5c-4471-b942-233d86021788" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">In the March 2021 survey, the COVID-19 pandemic was the most cited risk to growth in respondents’ countries in every region but India (“unemployment”) and Latin America (“domestic political conflicts”).</span></span></span></a></span> The pandemic is cited as a risk by 48 percent of all respondents, while the second most common risk—unemployment—is cited by only 17 percent. It’s an especially acute concern in India, where 77 percent now cite the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth; in the previous survey, only 28 percent said the same, and unemployment was the most common risk then.</p> <p>When asked about all potential risks to growth that executives foresee, there are some regional differences of note. Respondents in developed economies are more likely than their peers to cite the pandemic (65 percent, versus 55 percent), as well as asset bubbles, high levels of national debt, and supply-chain disruptions. At the same time, concerns over insufficient government support, unemployment, inflation, and weak demand are more top of mind in emerging economies.</p> <p>On the company front, expectations for consumer demand continue to improve, and those for profits remain buoyant. Workforce expectations are on the rise as well, with 43 percent of respondents saying their companies’ head count will increase in the next six months. It’s the first time since the pandemic began that a plurality of respondents have said so, in a mostly steady rise since <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">our June 2020 survey</a>.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, “<a href="/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/april 2021/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment-april-2021.pdf">Economic conditions outlook, April 2021</a>.”</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>March 2021</h2> <h4>In a new global survey, executives see positive momentum building in the economy. But the pandemic still persists as an outsize risk to growth.</h4> <p><strong>One year after</strong> the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="74bbba0a-c755-46bf-8757-ce44149519a5"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">23</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="74bbba0a-c755-46bf-8757-ce44149519a5" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Media briefing on COVID-19, WHO Director-General’s opening remarks,” World Health Organization, March 11, 2020, who.int.</span></span></span></a></span> the results of our newest McKinsey Global Survey signal greater optimism about the economy and corporate prospects than respondents have expressed since the crisis began—and on a few fronts, than they have in several years.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="48cdb800-4888-4078-a7b4-0295cd501e12"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">24</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="48cdb800-4888-4078-a7b4-0295cd501e12" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The survey was in the field March 1 to March 5, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,018 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Still, weak demand continues to threaten corporate growth, and the pandemic remains the biggest risk to growth in respondents’ countries.</p> <p>While the <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2022">global economic outlook has wavered</a> in recent months, respondents are more optimistic now about the world economy’s prospects than they’ve been at any other point during the crisis. Sixty-nine percent believe global economic conditions will improve, up from 56 percent in the previous survey. When asked about their countries’ economies, nearly three-quarters of executives expect improved conditions in the next six months, up from 56 percent in January—the highest share to say so since the pandemic began <em>and </em>since we began asking the question in February 2004.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="9322b1ac-e662-4937-be9a-109b058fd8f8"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">25</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="9322b1ac-e662-4937-be9a-109b058fd8f8" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">In our latest survey, 74 percent of respondents say they expect their countries’ economies will be better six months from now. Since then, the highest shares to say so were 69 percent in February 2004, and 68 percent in December 2009, during the recovery from the 2007–08 financial crisis.</span></span></span></a></span> In every region but Latin America, where executives are still more optimistic than pessimistic, a majority of respondents expect improvements in the months ahead.</p> <p>Unemployment concerns also seem to be subsiding, compared with the past few months when pluralities or outright majorities of respondents predicted an increasing unemployment rate at home. Now, 43 percent of respondents expect a decline while 38 percent expect an increase, though there are notable differences by region. A majority of respondents in Europe still anticipate rising unemployment (which was true in the past two surveys), while those in North America are the most likely of their peers to expect a <em>decrease</em> in unemployment: 69 percent say so, while only 16 percent in the region predict an increase.</p> <p>At the company level, positive expectations are also hitting new highs. Sixty-three percent of executives believe that demand for their companies’ products and services will increase in the months ahead, versus 39 percent who said the same one year ago, while 65 percent expect their companies’ profits will increase—the largest share to say so in three years. Workforce expectations remain stable, with a plurality of respondents saying their head counts will stay the same as they have throughout the pandemic. Thirty-seven percent, however, expect their workforce size to increase—the largest share to say so since before the pandemic.</p> <p>Despite the overall optimism, the COVID-19 pandemic still looms largest as a risk to economic growth in respondents’ countries. The pandemic is cited most often, followed by unemployment and domestic political conflicts, and is the most common risk in every region but Latin America and India. As in the previous survey, executives in Latin America and in Europe cite unemployment more often than their peers—and this month are followed closely by those in India—although the shares saying so have fallen since January.</p> <p>For respondents’ own companies, weak demand remains the greatest threat to growth, though increasing industry competition has risen in the ranks. Across sectors, respondents in consumer packaged goods and retail are the most likely among their peers to say so: 41 percent cite it as a risk to company growth, versus 28 percent of those in all other industries.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021">Economic conditions outlook, March 2021</a>.”</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="McKinsey Global Surveys" src="/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/mckinsey%20global%20surveys/1177003131-1536x1536.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>McKinsey’s original survey research</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Read more</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <br/> <br/> <h2>January 2021</h2> <h4>Economic expectations remain high but have tempered since December, and executives in Latin America and in Europe are less confident than their peers about the future.</h4> <p><strong>After sounding a note of optimism at the end of 2020,</strong> respondents to our newest McKinsey Global Survey are greeting 2021 with high hopes for the economy’s prospects.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="7f1dbf7b-5988-40fd-94fc-6180a2b98de1"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">26</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="7f1dbf7b-5988-40fd-94fc-6180a2b98de1" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from January 11 to January 15, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,025 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Majorities of executives continue to believe that conditions in their home economies and in the global economy will improve over the next six months. Yet their positivity has moderated since the previous survey; <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">compared with December</a>, smaller shares of respondents now predict that economic conditions will get better.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="4d4cd018-ebe5-4a56-8d80-b6bd494b17f2"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">27</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="4d4cd018-ebe5-4a56-8d80-b6bd494b17f2" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The week before the survey was in the field, authorities in every region of the world except Southeast Asia reported double-digit increases in the numbers of new cases over the past seven days. Japan also notified the World Health Organization of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, the third variant of the virus to be reported since mid-December. “COVID-19 weekly epidemiological update,” World Health Organization, January 12, 2021, who.int.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Within regions, there are a few changes of note. In India, respondents are now nearly as positive about their own economy’s future as are those in Greater China<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="694ce01f-b1f5-4d1c-805e-499857177643"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">28</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="694ce01f-b1f5-4d1c-805e-499857177643" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> (who, since March, have been the most optimistic about economic conditions at home)—and those in India are also the most upbeat about the global economy’s prospects. But in several other regions, sentiment has taken a negative turn. In Asia–Pacific and in Europe,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="4babc9c9-6361-490c-9a07-c9ae78bdbea2"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">29</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="4babc9c9-6361-490c-9a07-c9ae78bdbea2" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Andorra, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.</span></span></span></a></span> the shares of executives expecting their home economies to improve decreased by 15 and 11 percentage points, respectively, since December. The decline in optimism is most acute in Latin America, where 30 percent of respondents now expect improvements in their home economies. In the previous survey, 56 percent of executives there said the same.</p> <p>In Latin America as well as in Europe, respondents are also more concerned than those elsewhere about unemployment. Across regions, they are the most likely executives to expect rising unemployment rates in their home countries (60 percent in Latin America say so now, up from 44 percent in December) and to cite unemployment as a threat to economic growth at home. In fact, respondents in Latin America cite unemployment as the biggest risk to growth—even bigger than the pandemic, which is the most commonly cited risk on average and in every other region.</p> <p>And while most respondents continue to expect rising demand and profits for their own companies, over the next six months, executives in Europe and Latin America are the least likely to say so. For Latin America, this is a stark contrast with responses from December, when respondents in the region reported well-above-average predictions for both demand and profits.</p> <p>When asked about nine scenarios for the pandemic’s effects on GDP, executives also report more tempered views. They continue to cite A1—characterized by localized occurrences of the virus and partially effective economic responses—as the most likely for their own countries and the global economy. But the shares of respondents ranking any of the three scenarios where the virus’s health impact is contained have fallen since December. In the previous survey, 44 percent of respondents said that one of the containment scenarios was most likely for their home economies, and 39 percent said the same for the global economy. This month, only 32 percent and 28 percent, respectively, rank a containment scenario as most likely.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p> <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about our <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/how-we-help-clients">Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice</a>?</div></h3><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-7"><p><div> </div></p></div></div></header></div></div></div> <br/> <br/> <h2>December 2020</h2> <h4>Executives’ views on the economy continue to brighten as they look ahead to 2021.</h4> <p><strong>In our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy,</strong><span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="41b0943f-28e2-4394-86c2-5af5b6ff0088"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">30</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="41b0943f-28e2-4394-86c2-5af5b6ff0088" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"> The online survey was in the field from November 20 to December 4, 2020, and garnered responses from 1,382 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> executives are ending a year of global crisis and profound uncertainty on a relatively positive note. Their predictions for the future, and for their own companies’ prospects, remain much more optimistic than not. Executives in Europe, North America, and developing markets<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="19fab11c-c2cd-4129-b074-70e6380a3cf0"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">31</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="19fab11c-c2cd-4129-b074-70e6380a3cf0" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.</span></span></span></a></span> report more acute concerns than others about the economy, and those in Europe remain especially worried about unemployment. But even these respondents are less downbeat than they were in the previous quarter. At the same time, executives cite a couple of growing risks to their companies’ growth in 2021: industry-wide competition and disruptions.</p> <p>Looking ahead to next year, respondents’ expectations for their home economies are increasingly positive: 63 percent say economic conditions in their countries will be better six months from now, up from 54 percent who said the same in mid-October. Meanwhile, the global outlook has bounced back. After some peaks and valleys in recent surveys, 61 percent of respondents now predict global conditions will improve in the months ahead. What’s more, respondents are the likeliest they’ve been in the last three years to expect the global economy’s growth rate will increase. Sixty-eight percent predict increasing growth now, with only 24 percent predicting a contraction—the smallest share to say so all year.</p> <p>Interestingly, amid the rising positivity in other results, respondents’ views on nine crisis-related economic scenarios are holding fairly steady.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="90970f85-b05b-4988-a9e5-547c07ecf161"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">32</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="90970f85-b05b-4988-a9e5-547c07ecf161" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Between the October and December surveys, McKinsey updated the GDP predictions for its nine COVID-19 economic scenarios to reflect GDP changes to date since March 2020, when the scenarios were first developed. For more on the original scenarios, see Kevin Buehler, Arvind Govindarajan, Ezra Greenberg, Martin Hirt, Susan Lund, and Sven Smit, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time">Safeguarding our lives <span style="text-decoration:underline">and</span> our livelihoods: The imperative of our time</a>,” March 2020.</span></span></span></a></span> As in the previous survey, scenario A1 (characterized by localized recurrences of the virus and partially effective economic-policy responses) is cited most often as the likely scenario for the global economy and for respondents’ own economies. That said, the share of executives selecting A1 as the most likely global scenario has declined. One-quarter of all respondents now identify it as most likely, down from the 31 to 36 percent who have said so since our April 2020 survey. After A1, the largest share of respondents cite B1 as the most likely global scenario (20 percent), then B2 (cited by 16 percent). (For more information on each scenario, see “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy">Nine scenarios for the COVID-19 economy</a>.”)</p> <p>With respect to their companies’ prospects, executives remain optimistic—and increasingly so. For the first time this year, respondents are more likely to say the size of their workforces will increase than to predict a decrease.</p> <p>Yet responses to our latest survey also suggest some emerging threats to company growth. While weakening demand and changing customer needs remain the top-two risks (as they have been in the previous four surveys), the share of respondents citing demand concerns is the lowest it has been since March. At the same time, industry competition has risen in the ranks: it’s now selected fourth most often, compared with ninth in October. Competition and another industry-wide issue, business-model disruptions within respondents’ sectors, together are now cited by 44 percent of respondents, up from 34 percent previously.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">Economic Conditions Snapshot, December 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results</a>.”</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>October 2020</h2> <h4>Since September, executives have maintained more positive than negative outlooks for the world economy, national economies, and their own companies.</h4> <p><strong>Even as nations around the world</strong> fight a recent rise in the number of COVID-19 cases,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="ec710976-e1bc-4310-8bb0-749535d0a272"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">33</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="ec710976-e1bc-4310-8bb0-749535d0a272" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“COVID-19 weekly epidemiological update,” WHO, October 20, 2020, covid19.who.int.</span></span></span></a></span> responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic sentiment<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="6bd91a1c-5038-4ac5-a2b9-2300a7c83a63"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">34</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="6bd91a1c-5038-4ac5-a2b9-2300a7c83a63" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from October 12 to October 16, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,264 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> suggest that executives’ views have largely held steady <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">from September</a>. Outlooks on the economy and company prospects have remained more positive than negative, though optimism on the global economy has tempered. The share of respondents expecting global conditions to improve has decreased to 51 percent. But the share predicting that conditions will stay the same has increased since September, while the share expecting worsening conditions—which remains at the lowest level since the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic in March—has not changed. A majority of respondents (57 percent) also expect the global growth rate to increase over the next six months, as was the case in September.</p> <p>Overall, expectations about executives’ national economies remain in line with the September results, with 55 percent saying they expect improvement in the next six months. Outlooks continue to brighten in all but two regions. One of these is Greater China,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="bfb27c6e-b63d-4c76-9d96-75fdd129c954"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">35</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="bfb27c6e-b63d-4c76-9d96-75fdd129c954" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> where positive sentiments are still more common than in any other region. The second region where outlooks have moderated is Europe. It has become the only region in which respondents are more likely to expect their countries’ economic conditions to decline than to improve.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="6ef9ebca-6ddf-4f3e-89a9-577efbc8b91f"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">36</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="6ef9ebca-6ddf-4f3e-89a9-577efbc8b91f" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">In September, respondents in developing markets were the only subset more likely to expect their countries’ economic conditions to decline than to improve.</span></span></span></a></span> </p> <p>The findings also show changing views about the COVID-19 crisis’s effect on domestic and global GDP. When asked which of nine crisis-related scenarios respondents think is likeliest in their countries, they most often select scenario A1, which is characterized by partially effective policy and public-health responses, rather than September’s most-cited scenario, B1, which involves virus containment, sector damage, and a lower growth rate over the long term. At the global level, respondents also choose scenario A1 most often, as they have since April. However, scenario B2—marked by virus recurrence and slow long-term growth—has replaced B1 as the second-most-cited scenario for the world economy. (To learn more about the scenarios and how respondents in selected countries rate the likelihood of each one, currently and over time, see “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy">Nine scenarios for the COVID-19 economy</a>.”)</p> <p>As for respondents’ expectations for their own companies, the shares reporting positive expectations for profits and demand are the largest since the pandemic was declared. The 55 percent of respondents expecting their companies’ profits to increase in the coming months is more than double the share who said so six months ago. A similar share—56 percent—predict that customer demand will increase.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>September 2020</h2> <h4>Executives are more hopeful about the economy—and their own companies’ performance—than they have been since the COVID-19 crisis began.</h4> <p><strong>Six months after WHO</strong> declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="b1dd7c90-a41b-4a48-8870-da853a0ed13a"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">37</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="b1dd7c90-a41b-4a48-8870-da853a0ed13a" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“Timeline: WHO’s COVID-19 response,” WHO, July 30, 2020, who.int.</span></span></span></a></span> the responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey suggest a positive shift in economic sentiment.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="e0def9cb-4c2b-435a-8c3d-d6434b66b889"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">38</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="e0def9cb-4c2b-435a-8c3d-d6434b66b889" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from August 31 to September 4, 2020, and garnered responses from 1,138 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> More than half of all executives surveyed say economic conditions in their own countries will be better six months from now, while another 30 percent say they will worsen: it’s the smallest share of respondents all year to expect declining conditions. And except for those in developing markets,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="547b8787-67a7-4de5-a59b-0b6bc68570d5"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">39</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="547b8787-67a7-4de5-a59b-0b6bc68570d5" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes respondents in the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.</span></span></span></a></span> respondents in every region are more likely to predict that conditions will improve than that conditions will worsen. That is even true of those in North America, where, between June and July 2020, respondents’ outlooks had taken a negative turn.</p> <p>The share of respondents predicting improvements in the global economy has also grown over the past few months. Now 57 percent say so, compared with 52 percent in June and 25 percent in March. Across regions, emerging-economy respondents report more positive views on the global economy than their peers do: 73 percent expect global conditions to improve in the next six months, compared with 49 percent in developed economies—a much greater gap than previous surveys this year.</p> <p>Likewise, hopes are increasingly high for respondents’ own companies. For the first time in 2020, majorities predict that both demand and profits will increase in the months ahead.</p> <p>The survey results also suggest shifting views about the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on GDP, at least close to home. When asked which of the nine pandemic-related scenarios is most likely, respondents continue to pick the same scenario for the global economy as they have since the spring: A1, characterized by partially effective policy and public-health responses and a years-long economic recovery. But for respondents’ own economies, executives now select a scenario that involves virus containment, sector damage, and a lower growth rate over the long term (B1) most often.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">Economic Conditions Snapshot, September 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results</a>.”</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>July 2020</h2> <h4>In North America and developing markets, respondents’ economic outlook is less favorable than in June. Across regions, views are more uncertain on COVID-19 recovery but more hopeful on company prospects.</h4> <p><strong>Nations around the world</strong> are struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact, and responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy highlight the magnitude of the challenge—especially in certain geographies.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="8e5d050c-415e-42af-8d8b-fcdcff117f2a"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">40</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="8e5d050c-415e-42af-8d8b-fcdcff117f2a" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from July 13 to July 17, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,112 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> In North America and in developing markets, executives have become less hopeful since early June about their countries’ economies and more cautious than others in their views on potential scenarios for COVID-19 recovery. Overall expectations on these scenarios also suggest growing caution and uncertainty. Even so, respondents’ outlook for their own companies continues to brighten. For the first time in 2020, respondents are more likely to expect their companies’ profits to increase than decrease in the months ahead.</p> <p>On the whole, executives maintain the more positive than negative outlook they reported <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">in June</a>, for both the world economy and their home countries,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="a865e139-b564-45e2-99d9-46f99974e2de"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">41</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="a865e139-b564-45e2-99d9-46f99974e2de" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Forty-seven percent of respondents say the world economy will improve in the next six months, down from 51 percent who said so in June. Forty-eight percent of respondents say they expect their countries’ economies to improve in the next six months, compared with 50 percent in June.</span></span></span></a></span> and they are less likely than in previous months to expect declining growth rates globally and at home. While respondents’ outlooks about their countries’ economies have improved in most regions over the past four surveys, responses in North America and developing markets have taken a negative turn since June.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="014ed2f8-1a02-4427-bafb-5eaa13fe9ba7"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">42</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="014ed2f8-1a02-4427-bafb-5eaa13fe9ba7" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Developing markets include the Middle East and North Africa.</span></span></span></a></span> What’s more, when asked about COVID-19’s effects on domestic GDP, respondents in North America and developing markets are much less likely than last month to select one of the more optimistic options out of nine scenarios.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="488064b6-4ec7-408d-895f-3cca06a1f302"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">43</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="488064b6-4ec7-408d-895f-3cca06a1f302" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Sven Smit and Martin Hirt, with Penny Dash, Audrey Lucas, Tom Latkovic, Matt Wilson, Ezra Greenberg, Kevin Buehler, and Klemens Hjartar, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/crushing-coronavirus-uncertainty-the-big-unlock-for-our-economies">Crushing coronavirus uncertainty: The big ‘unlock’ for our economies</a>,” May 2020.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Across all geographies, views on the COVID-19 recovery have also become less favorable. <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">In June</a>, the optimistic A3 scenario (in which the virus is contained and growth returns slowly to precrisis levels) and A1 scenario (in which public-health and economic-policy interventions are partially effective, and the return to precrisis levels of GDP, income, and corporate earnings will take time) were selected most often as outcomes for respondents’ home economies. Now, the largest share of respondents rank A1 as the likeliest outcome for their own countries in the next year, followed by B2, in which public-health interventions are effective but do not prevent virus reoccurrences, and economic-policy interventions are insufficient to deliver a full recovery to precrisis levels. Similarly, when asked about these <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/crushing-coronavirus-uncertainty-the-big-unlock-for-our-economies">scenarios at the global level</a>, respondents most often choose A1, as they have since April, and B2 has replaced the more optimistic A3 as the second most cited scenario for the world economy.</p> <p>Respondents are more upbeat when considering their companies’ prospects over the next six months. In each survey since April, a growing share of respondents have expected their companies’ profits to increase. For the first time in 2020, respondents are now more likely to predict an increase than a decrease.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="6ed90a88-c23f-4604-a895-157a3f9ee70a"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">44</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="6ed90a88-c23f-4604-a895-157a3f9ee70a" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The share predicting an increase—45 percent—is smaller than it’s been since September 2011, which was the last survey in which fewer than half of respondents expected their companies’ profits to increase.</span></span></span></a></span> Furthermore, the share of respondents who say they expect customer demand for their companies’ products or services to weaken in the months ahead has continually decreased since April.</p> <p>By industry, respondents in automotive and assembly; healthcare services, pharma, and medical products; and travel, transport, and logistics—all sectors hit especially hard by the pandemic’s knock-on effects—are much more likely now than in June to expect demand for their companies’ products or services to increase in the months ahead. In contrast, respondents in retail, one of the most optimistic segments in the June survey, have become much more downbeat.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>June 2020</h2> <h4>In our latest survey on the economy, executives’ overall outlook for the future continues to improve.</h4> <p><strong>As the world grapples</strong> with the COVID-19 pandemic that continues to affect a growing number of countries and people,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="b0c6a487-5495-4c69-b258-47e804c1d3be"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">45</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="b0c6a487-5495-4c69-b258-47e804c1d3be" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">During the days that the survey was in the field (June 1 to June 5, 2020), 578,473 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. “WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard,” WHO, covid19.who.int.</span></span></span></a></span> the responses to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy suggest increasing optimism.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="352dfda4-fb05-4f42-bb4b-452b1d35bedc"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">46</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="352dfda4-fb05-4f42-bb4b-452b1d35bedc" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from June 1 to June 5, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,222 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Executives report ever-more-positive expectations for company demand and profitability—two months after reporting record pessimism on both fronts—and for their countries’ economic prospects.</p> <p>While executives’ views on company profits remain more negative than positive, the share expecting increased profitability has grown. Respondents are more likely to expect customer demand will increase than decrease; two months ago, the opposite was true.</p> <p>By industry, more than half of respondents in retail and in high tech and telecom expect demand to rise. Retail executives also report a much more optimistic view on demand since the April 2020 survey, as do those in capital projects and infrastructure.</p> <p>When asked about the economy’s future, respondents are cautiously but increasingly optimistic. Fifty-one percent say the world economy will be better six months from now, a share that has grown throughout 2020. Similarly, one-half of respondents expect conditions in their home economies to improve; in May, 43 percent said so, up from 36 percent in April and 26 percent in March. Except in Greater China, India, and Latin America—where respondents’ outlooks have held steady—executives in every region are more likely than in May to expect improvements.</p> <p>What’s more, the share of respondents expecting global and domestic growth rates to increase in the next six months has grown since April and May.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results</a>.”</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>May 2020</h2> <h4>Economic sentiment has improved since last month, per our latest survey of global executives on COVID-19 and the economy. Still, their near-term outlook remains more negative than positive.</h4> <p><strong>Since early April,</strong> a growing number of businesses and governments around the world have begun to reopen, ushering in a new—if tenuous—phase of the coronavirus situation. Likewise, the results from our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy (conducted from May 4 to May 8, 2020) point to an improving outlook.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="f754a47b-c4fa-4c9a-a6d9-df29276cdeb7"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">47</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="f754a47b-c4fa-4c9a-a6d9-df29276cdeb7" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from May 4 to May 8, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,514 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Executives are much likelier now than in April or <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">March</a> to expect improving conditions and increased growth rates in the months ahead.</p> <p>Yet executives are still more negative than positive in their expectations for their home economies and the world economy at large, as they were one month ago. And as the results show, <a href="/industries/healthcare/our-insights/beyond-coronavirus-the-path-to-the-next-normal">the path to a next normal</a> looks very different across regions and industries. Executives in Greater China<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="ea02a23a-b9a8-4143-8af6-fa5ba7d0391c"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">48</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="ea02a23a-b9a8-4143-8af6-fa5ba7d0391c" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes Hong Kong and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> were the most optimistic about domestic economic conditions in April and remain so this month: 75 percent expect conditions to improve in the next six months, up from 63 percent previously. Half of that share—just 34 percent—say the same in Europe. But even respondents there are notably more positive about their economies than they were one month ago. Among all regions, respondents in India report the largest shift toward positive sentiment since last month.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-4 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-5 Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__image___2Gc4"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture"><img alt="McKinsey Global Economics Intelligence" src="/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/mckinsey%20global%20economics%20intelligence/gei-collection-945488024-standard-1536x864.jpg?cq=50&mh=145&car=16:9&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-lg-span-8 mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-7"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>McKinsey Global Economics Intelligence</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/mckinsey-global-economics-intelligence" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Explore critical trends and risks in the global economy</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>At the company level, respondents most often cite weak consumer demand as a threat to their organizations’ growth. But other risks loom large in certain sectors. Respondents in financial services, for example, cite volatile financial markets as the biggest threat to company growth. And according to respondents, supply-chain disruptions present an outsize risk in several industries—namely, pharma, chemicals, consumer and packaged goods, and automotive and assembly. What’s more, when we asked respondents in industrial and manufacturing sectors about value-chain disruptions resulting from the coronavirus,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="c106fe01-d453-4258-abca-624390778dd3"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">49</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="c106fe01-d453-4258-abca-624390778dd3" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes respondents in the following industries and subindustries: advanced electronics, aerospace and defense, agriculture, automotive and assembly (automotive, machinery, and industrial goods), chemicals, consumer and packaged goods (apparel and fashion, consumer health, food and beverages, and household durables), high tech (hardware), pharma and medical products, semiconductors, and telecom equipment; n = 651.</span></span></span></a></span> only 15 percent say COVID-19 has <em>not</em> caused a material disruption to their value chains, and another one-third say the current disruption is the worst their companies have ever experienced.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below. </p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.</p> <hr/> <br/> <br/> <h2>April 2020</h2> <h4>In our latest survey, global executives report a gloomier outlook than one month ago. Two-thirds expect a sizable contraction in the world economy, and a record share predict declining company profits.</h4> <p><strong>As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads</strong> quickly across and within geographies, executives share growing concerns about its economic impact—and, varying by region, dramatic shifts in their views since <a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020">the beginning of March</a>.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="1a27b605-6dd6-4117-8bb1-52be799dd950"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">50</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="1a27b605-6dd6-4117-8bb1-52be799dd950" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from March 2 to March 6, 2020, and garnered responses from 1,152 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data were weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> Responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy,<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="d30e6f23-8909-4017-9889-ab323ee20b21"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">51</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="d30e6f23-8909-4017-9889-ab323ee20b21" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">The online survey was in the field from April 6 to April 10, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,121 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.</span></span></span></a></span> conducted from April 6 to April 10, show that overall sentiment is more negative than it was just one month ago: for example, two-thirds of respondents expect a moderate or significant contraction in the world economy’s growth rate—that is, a recession or a depression. In early March, only 42 percent said the same. And 56 percent say the same thing about growth in their home economies, up from 24 percent one month ago.</p> <p>Respondents’ overall outlook for their home countries and the global economy has changed less in the past month, though their views remain decidedly downbeat. At least six in ten believe that conditions in their home economies and in the global economy will worsen in the coming months. At the company level, prospects are especially grim. Respondents are nearly twice as likely as they were one month ago to say that the profits of their companies will decrease in the next few months; at 61 percent, that is the largest share to report a negative outlook on profits since we began asking the question, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="184bc19d-e18d-4936-8d37-9aa83a0628d1"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">52</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="184bc19d-e18d-4936-8d37-9aa83a0628d1" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“<a href="/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/what-executives-think-about-the-economy-2004-to-now">What executives think about the economy: 2004 to now</a>,” March 2020.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <p>Even so, the results point to some bright spots. When asked about nine scenarios for the pandemic’s impact on GDP, a majority of respondents say the four more positive scenarios are most likely to play out in the next year (exhibit).<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="76797481-63a7-40ea-9121-d8657e076c8b"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">53</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="76797481-63a7-40ea-9121-d8657e076c8b" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">For more on McKinsey’s COVID-19 scenarios, see Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/in-the-tunnel-executive-expectations-about-the-shape-of-the-coronavirus-crisis">In the tunnel: Executive expectations about the shape of the coronavirus crisis</a>,” April 2020; and Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, “<a href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time">Safeguarding our lives <span style="text-decoration:underline">and</span> our livelihoods: The imperative of our time</a>,” March 2020.</span></span></span></a></span></p>  <p>As for the prospects of national economies, respondents in China<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="8f3c3d1c-3a9c-47ef-a530-94bd08128334"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">54</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="8f3c3d1c-3a9c-47ef-a530-94bd08128334" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.</span></span></span></a></span> are much more optimistic than those elsewhere, even compared with their counterparts in the rest of Asia—and much more positive than they were one month ago. Respondents in North America are also likelier than others to expect improvements in the months ahead, even though the number of US cases of COVID-19 exceeded China’s two weeks before the survey was in the field.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="97fc8bba-1d09-47d5-aa49-700f8ed44cd5"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">55</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="97fc8bba-1d09-47d5-aa49-700f8ed44cd5" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"><em>Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report 68</em>, World Health Organization, March 28, 2020, who.int.</span></span></span></a></span> Respondents in Latin America expect their economies will be hardest hit in the near term, compared with other regions, and sentiment there—as well as in most other geographies—has become more negative since the previous survey.</p> <p>For more detail on the survey’s results, please see the exhibits below.</p>  <hr/> <p>This update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p>The survey content and analysis were developed by <strong>Jeffrey Condon</strong>, a senior knowledge expert in McKinsey’s Atlanta office; <strong>Krzysztof Kwiatkowski</strong> and <strong>Vivien Singer</strong>, both capabilities and insights experts at the Waltham Client Capabilities Hub; and <strong><a href="/our-people/sven-smit">Sven Smit</a></strong>, the chair and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner in the Amsterdam office.</p> <hr /> <p>This article was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f 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href="/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-economics-intelligence-executive-summary-november-2021" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, November 2021</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment","displayName":"The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"3cc6035d-402d-4c7b-a884-319a48c638b8","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":22,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"The coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":""},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"In the latest survey, inflation and geopolitical conflicts remain the top perceived economic risks, while concerns about energy volatility predominate in Europe."}},"sEODescription":{"value":""},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2022-09-30T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003ch2\u003eSeptember 2022\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIn September, \u003c/strong\u003erespondents in most regions cite inflation as the main risk to growth in their home economies for the second quarter, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.[[Footnote 1]] In all locations but Europe and Greater China, inflation is the most-cited threat to respondents\u0026rsquo; economies over the next 12 months (Exhibit 1). In Europe, volatile energy prices and inflation are the growth risks cited most often, with geopolitical instability or conflicts a more distant third. In Greater China,[[Footnote 2]] the COVID-19 pandemic remains the most reported risk, cited by nearly half of respondents for the second quarter in a row.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 09221]]\n\u003cp\u003eSimilar to the June survey\u0026rsquo;s findings, about four in ten respondents expect their countries\u0026rsquo; economies to improve over the next six months, with a similar share expecting conditions to worsen. However, expectations vary by region (Exhibit 2). Respondents in Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific and Europe are less likely than in June to say their countries\u0026rsquo; economies will improve, while respondents in other developing markets have become more hopeful.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit 09222]]\n\u003cp\u003ePessimism about the \u003ca href=\"/mgi/our-research/why-the-path-of-global-wealth-and-growth-matters-for-strategy\"\u003eglobal economy\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;remains consistent with the previous findings, with about half of respondents expecting global conditions to weaken in the next six months. For the third quarter this year, geopolitical instability and conflicts remain the most-cited risk to global economic growth, and inflation remains the second-most-cited threat. In a change from June, volatile energy prices have superseded supply chain disruptions as the third-most-cited risk.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAbout the authors\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe survey content and analysis were developed by \u003cstrong\u003eJeffrey Condon\u003c/strong\u003e, a senior knowledge expert in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Atlanta office; \u003cstrong\u003eKrzysztof Kwiatkowski\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eVivien Singer\u003c/strong\u003e, both capabilities and insights experts at the Waltham Client Capabilities Hub; and \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/sven-smit\"\u003eSven Smit\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e, the chair and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner in the Amsterdam office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros covid]]\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eJune 2022\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eA new survey finds that inflation now tops the list of perceived economic hazards in respondents\u0026rsquo; home countries and geopolitical conflicts remain a top threat to the global economy.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eJust one quarter\u003c/strong\u003e after geopolitical conflicts and instability overtook the COVID-19 pandemic as the leading risk to economic growth, survey respondents\u0026rsquo; concerns over inflation now exceed their worries about the effects of geopolitical issues on their countries\u0026rsquo; economies. In the latest \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys\"\u003eMcKinsey Global Survey\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;on economic conditions, respondents most often cite inflation as a risk over the next year.[[footnote 3]] They are now nearly half as likely as they were in the previous survey to cite geopolitical issues as a risk to their countries\u0026rsquo; economies. However, geopolitical conflicts and instability remain an outsize concern in Europe, where 50 percent list it among their top risks. But even in Europe, inflation is the risk cited most often\u0026mdash;as it is in every geography except Greater China.[[footnote 4]] There, respondents most often point to the COVID-19\u0026nbsp;pandemic.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eGeopolitical instability remains the top-cited threat to the global economy, as it was in the March 2022 survey, and inflation has overtaken volatile energy prices to become the second-most-cited concern. Supply chain disruptions round out the top three global risks, followed by volatile energy prices and rising interest rates.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOverall, pessimism about the second half of 2022 is on par with the early months of the pandemic in 2020, when more than half of respondents predicted that global economic conditions would worsen in the months ahead. In the latest survey, half of all respondents expect global conditions to worsen over the next six months, and 29\u0026nbsp;percent expect improvement. Respondents\u0026rsquo; expectations for their home countries are somewhat more hopeful than their outlook on the global economy: 39 percent expect their economies to improve in the near future. However, this is the first survey since the one in September 2020 in which less than half of respondents expect improvements in their home economies. Now, they are just as likely to expect economic conditions will decline as improve.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMost respondents in Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific and Greater China expect their economies to improve in the second half of 2022, although overall optimism has declined since the previous survey. Over the same time period, respondents in Europe and North America have become much more pessimistic about the future.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibitcarousel A]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eMarch 2022\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eWorries about geopolitical conflicts, among other risks to growth, now exceed executives' concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall economic optimism continues to decline.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGeopolitical instability\u003c/strong\u003e is now cited as the top risk to growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries, according to our latest \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys\"\u003eMcKinsey Global Survey\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;on economic conditions.[[Footnote 5]] Our quarterly survey was launched four days after the invasion of Ukraine, and executives expect that its economic effects will be strongly felt.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMore than half of all executives cite geopolitical conflicts as a risk to near-term growth in their own economies, up from 16 percent who said so in the previous survey. It\u0026rsquo;s the top risk to domestic growth in every geography except Greater China,[[Footnote 6]] where respondents most often cite the COVID-19 pandemic.[[Footnote 7]] Meanwhile, the share of respondents citing the COVID-19 pandemic as a top risk fell from 47 percent to 11 percent, as much larger percentages now identify inflation, energy prices, and supply chain disruptions as threats to growth at home.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt the same time, overall economic sentiment remains more positive than negative but continues to trend downward. For the third quarter in a row, respondents are less likely to believe that economic conditions, either global or domestic, will improve in the months ahead\u0026mdash;and the global outlook is especially gloomy.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eForty-three percent of respondents believe the global economy will improve over the next six months, a share that\u0026rsquo;s nearly equal to the 40 percent who feel conditions will worsen. This month\u0026rsquo;s result also marks the first time since July 2020 that less than a majority of respondents feel optimistic about the global economy\u0026rsquo;s prospects.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros Mar2022]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an executive editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eDecember 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutive sentiment ends the year on a generally positive note, with most survey respondents expecting 2022 to bring better economic conditions despite heightened risks from the pandemic and inflation.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRespondents to the latest\u003c/strong\u003e McKinsey Global Survey on the economy end a largely optimistic year with mostly positive expectations for 2022.[[footnote 8]] These relatively upbeat outlooks, both for the global economy and for respondents\u0026rsquo; countries, come despite a resurgence in concerns about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic: countries across Europe and North America had been \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/global-economics-intelligence-executive-summary-november-2021\"\u003ereporting rising case numbers since early October\u003c/a\u003e, and WHO declared the Omicron variant to be one of concern just days before the survey launched.[[footnote 9]] Respondents\u0026mdash;particularly those in Latin America and North America\u0026mdash;also see inflation as a pressing economic threat.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA majority of respondents (57 percent) expect both the global economy and their countries\u0026rsquo; economies to improve in the next six months, though this proportion has declined since the summer. The shares of respondents predicting economic improvements, both globally and domestically, are similar in size to those in the December 2020 survey who expected improvement. Respondents in India, Greater China, and Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific are the most optimistic: more than three-quarters in each of those locations predict improvements in their countries. Just 26 percent in Latin America say the same.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents\u0026rsquo; expectations for their own companies tell a similar story: they are still largely positive even after trending downward since the summer. Sixty-four percent expect customer demand to increase in the next six months, down from 74 percent in the June survey. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect profits to increase, compared with 74 percent in June and September.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn a change from the October survey, respondents have once again cited the COVID-19 pandemic as a risk to domestic growth more than any other factor, as they have in every other survey since early 2020. In October, before the Omicron variant emerged, supply-chain challenges briefly replaced the pandemic as the top risk. The latest survey also asked executives to choose the likeliest of nine scenarios for the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s economic and health impact, both globally and in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries. Compared with the October survey, a larger share selected global and domestic scenarios with recurrences of the COVID-19 virus than scenarios with effective control of the virus\u0026rsquo;s spread.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents also commonly express concerns about inflation. Respondents selected inflation as one of the top two most-cited risks to domestic growth, behind the pandemic. Respondents in Latin America were most apt to call inflation a threat to growth, as in October. Inflation has also become the primary concern of those in North America and developing markets. These concerns mark a striking change from one year ago, when geopolitical instability and high levels of national debt loomed as the second-most-cited threats to global and domestic growth, respectively, behind the pandemic.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros Dec2021]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eOctober 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eSupply-chain disruptions now outweigh COVID-19 concerns as the biggest risks executives see to domestic and corporate growth.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIn a change \u003c/strong\u003efrom the first three quarters in 2021, uncertainty over COVID-19 is no longer a foremost economic concern to executives, according to the latest \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys\"\u003eMcKinsey Global Survey\u003c/a\u003e.[[Footnote 10]] When asked about threats to growth in their countries\u0026rsquo; economies, executives now cite mounting fallout on the supply chain\u0026mdash;which is also the most common risk to \u003cem\u003ecompany\u003c/em\u003e growth\u0026mdash;and inflation more often than the pandemic itself. Having endured as the most-cited risk to domestic growth since March 2020, the pandemic is now cited by just one-quarter of respondents: half the share who did so in September 2021.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA larger share of respondents also now anticipate that the virus\u0026rsquo;s effect on public health will be reined in over the coming months. When asked about \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy\"\u003enine scenarios on the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s GDP effects\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;in their countries, they are much more likely than in the previous survey to select a scenario in which the effective public-health responses contain the virus\u0026rsquo;s impact. This month\u0026rsquo;s most commonly chosen scenario, B1, assumes virus containment as well as ineffective economic intervention. In the previous two surveys, respondents most often ranked the A1 scenario, which envisions recurrences of the virus, as the likeliest one.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy the same token, many respondents expect their companies to emerge from the pandemic more resilient than before. Nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of respondents say their companies are more prepared for future crises now than they were before the pandemic. These reflections come as executives\u0026rsquo; outlooks for their companies\u0026rsquo; profits and customer demand continue to be largely positive. For the first time since July 2004, half of respondents expect their organizations\u0026rsquo; workforces to grow over the next six months.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt the same time that hiring is expected to increase, respondents also anticipate talent shortages. After supply-chain disruptions, \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/great-attrition-or-great-attraction-the-choice-is-yours\"\u003elabor shortages\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;are the second-most-cited risk to company growth over the next year, and they are the top concern among respondents in North America.[[Footnote 11]] These shortages also rank as a top-five risk to economic growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; own countries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd while overall expectations for the global economy and respondents\u0026rsquo; countries remain rosy, respondents\u0026rsquo; optimism has declined since the summer. Sixty-four percent of respondents expect global conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 71 percent in July and September.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 18]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eSeptember 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutives\u0026rsquo; sentiment on economic conditions continues to be positive, even as concerns mount\u0026mdash;yet again\u0026mdash;over the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s threat to growth.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEighteen months into the COVID-19 pandemic, \u003c/strong\u003eexecutives\u0026rsquo; responses to our latest \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys\"\u003eMcKinsey Global Survey\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;suggest that they believe the economy is on track toward a recovery.[[Footnote 12]] Throughout 2021, their views have, on average, been consistently positive. And they continue to report largely positive expectations: 71 percent of respondents predict that conditions in the global economy will improve in the next six months, down from an all-time high of \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021\"\u003e81 percent who said so last quarter\u003c/a\u003e.[[Footnote 13]] When asked about their countries\u0026rsquo; economic prospects, most respondents still expect improvements, but that share has also decreased. Sixty-five percent of respondents now say so, down from a range of 73 to 79 percent who have said so since \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021\"\u003eMarch 2021\u003c/a\u003e. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYet with the Delta variant affecting so many parts of the world, worries over the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s effects on the economy have also reemerged\u0026mdash;just one quarter after a historically low share of respondents cited it as a risk to domestic economic growth. In June, just 36 percent cited the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth over the next year; it was \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003ethe smallest share to say so since we began asking, in March 2020\u003c/a\u003e. Now, 49 percent of respondents say the same, up from 42 percent in July. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe pandemic is followed by supply-chain disruptions and inflation, which were also among the top-three risks to domestic growth in the past two surveys. By region, the pandemic is the top risk in every region except Latin America. Respondents in developed economies also see it as a more prominent threat to growth than those in emerging economies. Fifty-two percent of developed-economy executives see the pandemic as a risk to growth in their own countries\u0026mdash;nearly double the share who said so last quarter\u0026mdash;compared with 45 percent in emerging economies. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe responses in developed economies suggest other concerns as well. For the first time since January, these executives are less likely than others to expect improving conditions in their home economies.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThey are also less upbeat about their companies\u0026rsquo; prospects. Respondents in developed economies are much less likely than their emerging-economy peers to expect an increase in the size of their companies\u0026rsquo; workforces in the next six months, an increase in demand for their companies\u0026rsquo; products and services, and an increase in company profits.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, September 2021\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 17]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eJuly 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutives\u0026rsquo; views on the global economy have tempered, but expectations remain largely positive.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOptimism about the global economy\u003c/strong\u003e has moderated but remains the predominant sentiment among executives, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.[[footnote 14]] Seventy-one percent expect improvement in the next six months, down from 81 percent in June, breaking the streak of increasingly positive views that began at the start of 2021. Whereas in the previous survey respondents in developed and emerging economies were equally upbeat about global conditions,[[footnote 15]] developed-economy respondents have become more measured. Sixty-five percent expect the global economy to improve in the next few months, compared with 83 percent of emerging-economy respondents.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite more cautious optimism about the world economy, expectations for respondents\u0026rsquo; home countries remain just as upbeat as in June. Nearly eight in ten respondents (78 percent)\u0026mdash;including a majority in each region\u0026mdash;expect their countries\u0026rsquo; economies to improve in the next six months, as was true in the June survey.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents also express declining optimism at the global level when asked about nine scenarios for the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s effects on global GDP. As in June, they most often choose the A1 scenario\u0026mdash;in which there are recurrences of the virus and slower near-term growth\u0026mdash;although a significantly smaller share of respondents now see it as the most likely scenario. The B2 scenario, involving similar virus recurrence and less-effective economic policy, has become the second most cited, surpassing the virus-containment scenarios A3 and B1 that were more common selections in the June survey. Respondents in the latest survey are also more likely to cite a scenario in which there are high levels of adverse health impact (B3, B4, and B5).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 2721]]\n\u003cp\u003eWhen asked about scenarios for their countries\u0026rsquo; economies, respondents are much more likely now than in June to pick scenarios that involve virus recurrence. A1 is the most commonly chosen scenario, overtaking virus-containment scenario A3. Only respondents in Greater China continue to select A3 most often.[[footnote 16]] Overall, a larger share of respondents now see the likeliest scenario as B1\u0026mdash;in which there is virus containment but an ineffective economic-policy response\u0026mdash;rather than A3.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYet respondents continue to report increasing optimism about their countries\u0026rsquo; unemployment rates in the months ahead. The share expecting unemployment to rise (26 percent) is the lowest since before the pandemic, and respondents are now more than twice as likely to expect unemployment to decrease than increase. Even respondents in Latin America\u0026mdash;the only region where in June, a forecast of increasing unemployment was more likely than a decrease\u0026mdash;have become much more likely to expect unemployment rates to decrease. Conversely, respondents in developing markets[[footnote 17]] and India have become less likely to say unemployment in their countries will go down. In India, unemployment has become one of the three most-cited risks to domestic growth in the coming months, along with the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMore broadly, respondents continue to see the pandemic, inflation, and supply-chain disruptions as the top three threats to their countries\u0026rsquo; economic growth, respectively, as was true in June. But since the previous survey, the pandemic has become a larger concern for respondents in developed economies: whereas in June they most commonly said inflation was a top risk, they now cite the pandemic most often. For example, while inflation still outranks COVID-19 among respondents in North America, the share citing the pandemic as a threat has doubled (30 percent, up from 15 percent).\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 16]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eJune 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutives\u0026rsquo; overall views on the economy continue to improve. As more and more economies are recovering from the pandemic, perceptions of potential risks are evolving.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003ePositive momentum continues to build\u003c/strong\u003e in many respondents\u0026rsquo; home countries and in the world economy, according to our latest \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021\"\u003eMcKinsey Global Survey\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;on economic conditions.[[footnote 18]] Yet by geography, some differences have emerged. Executives in developed economies report increasingly positive views compared with their emerging-economy counterparts\u0026mdash;a reversal from the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s first year\u0026mdash;as well as new threats to economic growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe COVID-19 pandemic still tops the list of risks to growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries, but the share of executives saying so has declined significantly. \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment\"\u003eCompared with April\u003c/a\u003e, respondents in developed economies also consider the pandemic a much less acute concern. Twenty-eight percent of them cite the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth, compared with half of their emerging-economy peers. In the previous survey, 65 percent of respondents in developed economies identified the pandemic as a risk to their countries\u0026rsquo; growth.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, the shares of respondents citing inflation\u0026mdash;the second-most-common risk, identified nearly twice as often as in April\u0026mdash;and supply-chain disruptions have increased. Inflation has also risen in the ranks as a risk to growth in the \u003cem\u003eglobal\u003c/em\u003e economy, though on average, responses show that the pandemic remains a much bigger threat to global growth than anything else. At the same time, respondents say supply-chain disruptions pose a greater risk to their companies\u0026rsquo; growth than in prior surveys.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen asked about overall economic conditions in the months ahead, executives report an increasingly positive outlook. Seventy-nine percent expect conditions in their home countries to improve in the next six months, and a majority of respondents in each region expect improvements. Their global outlook is even more positive, with 81 percent predicting improvements in the months ahead.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFinally, respondents say that their own companies\u0026rsquo; prospects continue to improve. An increasing share expects that their workforce sizes will grow in the next few months, while 74 percent expect that company profits \u003cem\u003eand\u003c/em\u003e demand for their companies\u0026rsquo; offerings will increase in the next six months. On the demand front, this is the largest share to predict an increase since we began asking the question in \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/economic-conditions-snapshot-april-2009-mckinsey-global-survey-results\"\u003eApril 2009\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, June 2021\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 15]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eApril 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eThough the pandemic overshadows other risks to growth, optimism about the economy persists and company prospects continue to brighten, especially on the hiring front.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIn our latest \u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/mckinsey-global-surveys\"\u003eMcKinsey Global Survey\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;on the economy,\u003c/strong\u003e[[footnote 19]] executives\u0026rsquo; views are as decidedly positive \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021\"\u003eas they were in March\u003c/a\u003e\u0026mdash;even as the pandemic continues to dwarf other risks to growth. It\u0026rsquo;s an especially acute risk in India, where the week after the survey was in the field, the number of daily COVID-19 cases set a new world record.[[footnote 20]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGlobally, 73 percent of all respondents believe that conditions in the world economy will improve in the next six months. It\u0026rsquo;s the largest share to say so all year, while the share of executives expecting worsening conditions has shrunk by more than half in the past three months: 10 percent say so now, down from 23 percent in January.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe domestic outlook is equally upbeat and consistent across regions, even outside of Greater China[[footnote 21]] or India\u0026mdash;where, for eight surveys in a row, respondents were the most optimistic about their own economy\u0026rsquo;s prospects. Notably, respondents in India reported the biggest shift in sentiment since the previous survey. Though they are still more positive than not about their economy, the share expecting improved conditions in the next six months dropped from 86 percent in March to 64 percent currently.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs we saw in March, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to overshadow all other risks to domestic growth and now tops the list in every geography.[[footnote 22]] The pandemic is cited as a risk by 48 percent of all respondents, while the second most common risk\u0026mdash;unemployment\u0026mdash;is cited by only 17 percent. It\u0026rsquo;s an especially acute concern in India, where 77 percent now cite the pandemic as a risk to domestic growth; in the previous survey, only 28 percent said the same, and unemployment was the most common risk then.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen asked about all potential risks to growth that executives foresee, there are some regional differences of note. Respondents in developed economies are more likely than their peers to cite the pandemic (65 percent, versus 55 percent), as well as asset bubbles, high levels of national debt, and supply-chain disruptions. At the same time, concerns over insufficient government support, unemployment, inflation, and weak demand are more top of mind in emerging economies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn the company front, expectations for consumer demand continue to improve, and those for profits remain buoyant. Workforce expectations are on the rise as well, with 43 percent of respondents saying their companies\u0026rsquo; head count will increase in the next six months. It\u0026rsquo;s the first time since the pandemic began that a plurality of respondents have said so, in a mostly steady rise since \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003eour June 2020 survey\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/april 2021/the-coronavirus-effect-on-global-economic-sentiment-april-2021.pdf\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, April 2021\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 13]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eMarch 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eIn a new global survey, executives see positive momentum building in the economy. But the pandemic still persists as an outsize risk to growth.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eOne year after\u003c/strong\u003e the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic,[[Footnote 23]] the results of our newest McKinsey Global Survey signal greater optimism about the economy and corporate prospects than respondents have expressed since the crisis began\u0026mdash;and on a few fronts, than they have in several years.[[Footnote 24]] Still, weak demand continues to threaten corporate growth, and the pandemic remains the biggest risk to growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhile the \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2022\"\u003eglobal economic outlook has wavered\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;in recent months, respondents are more optimistic now about the world economy\u0026rsquo;s prospects than they\u0026rsquo;ve been at any other point during the crisis. Sixty-nine percent believe global economic conditions will improve, up from 56 percent in the previous survey. When asked about their countries\u0026rsquo; economies, nearly three-quarters of executives expect improved conditions in the next six months, up from 56 percent in January\u0026mdash;the highest share to say so since the pandemic began \u003cem\u003eand \u003c/em\u003esince we began asking the question in February 2004.[[Footnote 25]] In every region but Latin America, where executives are still more optimistic than pessimistic, a majority of respondents expect improvements in the months ahead.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eUnemployment concerns also seem to be subsiding, compared with the past few months when pluralities or outright majorities of respondents predicted an increasing unemployment rate at home. Now, 43 percent of respondents expect a decline while 38 percent expect an increase, though there are notable differences by region. A majority of respondents in Europe still anticipate rising unemployment (which was true in the past two surveys), while those in North America are the most likely of their peers to expect a \u003cem\u003edecrease\u003c/em\u003e in unemployment: 69 percent say so, while only 16 percent in the region predict an increase.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt the company level, positive expectations are also hitting new highs. Sixty-three percent of executives believe that demand for their companies\u0026rsquo; products and services will increase in the months ahead, versus 39 percent who said the same one year ago, while 65 percent expect their companies\u0026rsquo; profits will increase\u0026mdash;the largest share to say so in three years. Workforce expectations remain stable, with a plurality of respondents saying their head counts will stay the same as they have throughout the pandemic. Thirty-seven percent, however, expect their workforce size to increase\u0026mdash;the largest share to say so since before the pandemic.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDespite the overall optimism, the COVID-19 pandemic still looms largest as a risk to economic growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries. The pandemic is cited most often, followed by unemployment and domestic political conflicts, and is the most common risk in every region but Latin America and India. As in the previous survey, executives in Latin America and in Europe cite unemployment more often than their peers\u0026mdash;and this month are followed closely by those in India\u0026mdash;although the shares saying so have fallen since January.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor respondents\u0026rsquo; own companies, weak demand remains the greatest threat to growth, though increasing industry competition has risen in the ranks. Across sectors, respondents in consumer packaged goods and retail are the most likely among their peers to say so: 41 percent cite it as a risk to company growth, versus 28 percent of those in all other industries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlook-2021\"\u003eEconomic conditions outlook, March 2021\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 12]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n[[disruptor1up dis2]]\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eJanuary 2021\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eEconomic expectations remain high but have tempered since December, and executives in Latin America and in Europe are less confident than their peers about the future.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAfter sounding a note of optimism at the end of 2020,\u003c/strong\u003e respondents to our newest McKinsey Global Survey are greeting 2021 with high hopes for the economy\u0026rsquo;s prospects.[[Footnote 26]] Majorities of executives continue to believe that conditions in their home economies and in the global economy will improve over the next six months. Yet their positivity has moderated since the previous survey; \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003ecompared with December\u003c/a\u003e, smaller shares of respondents now predict that economic conditions will get better.[[Footnote 27]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWithin regions, there are a few changes of note. In India, respondents are now nearly as positive about their own economy\u0026rsquo;s future as are those in Greater China[[Footnote 28]] (who, since March, have been the most optimistic about economic conditions at home)\u0026mdash;and those in India are also the most upbeat about the global economy\u0026rsquo;s prospects. But in several other regions, sentiment has taken a negative turn. In Asia\u0026ndash;Pacific and in Europe,[[Footnote 29]] the shares of executives expecting their home economies to improve decreased by 15 and 11 percentage points, respectively, since December. The decline in optimism is most acute in Latin America, where 30 percent of respondents now expect improvements in their home economies. In the previous survey, 56 percent of executives there said the same.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn Latin America as well as in Europe, respondents are also more concerned than those elsewhere about unemployment. Across regions, they are the most likely executives to expect rising unemployment rates in their home countries (60 percent in Latin America say so now, up from 44 percent in December) and to cite unemployment as a threat to economic growth at home. In fact, respondents in Latin America cite unemployment as the biggest risk to growth\u0026mdash;even bigger than the pandemic, which is the most commonly cited risk on average and in every other region.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAnd while most respondents continue to expect rising demand and profits for their own companies, over the next six months, executives in Europe and Latin America are the least likely to say so. For Latin America, this is a stark contrast with responses from December, when respondents in the region reported well-above-average predictions for both demand and profits.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen asked about nine scenarios for the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s effects on GDP, executives also report more tempered views. They continue to cite A1\u0026mdash;characterized by localized occurrences of the virus and partially effective economic responses\u0026mdash;as the most likely for their own countries and the global economy. But the shares of respondents ranking any of the three scenarios where the virus\u0026rsquo;s health impact is contained have fallen since December. In the previous survey, 44 percent of respondents said that one of the containment scenarios was most likely for their home economies, and 39 percent said the same for the global economy. This month, only 32 percent and 28 percent, respectively, rank a containment scenario as most likely.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 11]]\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, a senior editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n[[disruptor1up dis3]]\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eDecember 2020\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutives\u0026rsquo; views on the economy continue to brighten as they look ahead to 2021.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIn our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy,\u003c/strong\u003e[[footnote 30]] executives are ending a year of global crisis and profound uncertainty on a relatively positive note. Their predictions for the future, and for their own companies\u0026rsquo; prospects, remain much more optimistic than not. Executives in Europe, North America, and developing markets[[footnote 31]] report more acute concerns than others about the economy, and those in Europe remain especially worried about unemployment. But even these respondents are less downbeat than they were in the previous quarter. At the same time, executives cite a couple of growing risks to their companies\u0026rsquo; growth in 2021: industry-wide competition and disruptions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLooking ahead to next year, respondents\u0026rsquo; expectations for their home economies are increasingly positive: 63 percent say economic conditions in their countries will be better six months from now, up from 54 percent who said the same in mid-October. Meanwhile, the global outlook has bounced back. After some peaks and valleys in recent surveys, 61 percent of respondents now predict global conditions will improve in the months ahead. What\u0026rsquo;s more, respondents are the likeliest they\u0026rsquo;ve been in the last three years to expect the global economy\u0026rsquo;s growth rate will increase. Sixty-eight percent predict increasing growth now, with only 24 percent predicting a contraction\u0026mdash;the smallest share to say so all year.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInterestingly, amid the rising positivity in other results, respondents\u0026rsquo; views on nine crisis-related economic scenarios are holding fairly steady.[[footnote 32]] As in the previous survey, scenario A1 (characterized by localized recurrences of the virus and partially effective economic-policy responses) is cited most often as the likely scenario for the global economy and for respondents\u0026rsquo; own economies. That said, the share of executives selecting A1 as the most likely global scenario has declined. One-quarter of all respondents now identify it as most likely, down from the 31 to 36 percent who have said so since our April 2020 survey. After A1, the largest share of respondents cite B1 as the most likely global scenario (20 percent), then B2 (cited by 16 percent). (For more information on each scenario, see \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy\"\u003eNine scenarios for the COVID-19 economy\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWith respect to their companies\u0026rsquo; prospects, executives remain optimistic\u0026mdash;and increasingly so. For the first time this year, respondents are more likely to say the size of their workforces will increase than to predict a decrease.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYet responses to our latest survey also suggest some emerging threats to company growth. While weakening demand and changing customer needs remain the top-two risks (as they have been in\nthe previous four surveys), the share of respondents citing demand concerns is the lowest it has been since March. At the same time, industry competition has risen in the ranks: it\u0026rsquo;s now selected fourth most often, compared with ninth in October. Competition and another industry-wide issue, business-model disruptions within respondents\u0026rsquo; sectors, together are now cited by 44 percent of respondents, up from 34 percent previously.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003eEconomic Conditions Snapshot, December 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n[[CEROS 10]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eOctober 2020\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eSince September, executives have maintained more positive than negative outlooks for the world economy, national economies, and their own companies.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEven as nations around the world\u003c/strong\u003e fight a recent rise in the number of COVID-19 cases,[[footnote 33]] responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic sentiment[[footnote 34]] suggest that executives\u0026rsquo; views have largely held steady \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003efrom September\u003c/a\u003e. Outlooks on the economy and company prospects have remained more positive than negative, though optimism on the global economy has tempered. The share of respondents expecting global conditions to improve has decreased to 51 percent. But the share predicting that conditions will stay the same has increased since September, while the share expecting worsening conditions\u0026mdash;which remains at the lowest level since the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic in March\u0026mdash;has not changed. A majority of respondents (57 percent) also expect the global growth rate to increase over the next six months, as was the case in September.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOverall, expectations about executives\u0026rsquo; national economies remain in line with the September results, with 55 percent saying they expect improvement in the next six months. Outlooks continue to brighten in all but two regions. One of these is Greater China,[[footnote 35]] where positive sentiments are still more common than in any other region. The second region where outlooks have moderated is Europe. It has become the only region in which respondents are more likely to expect their countries\u0026rsquo; economic conditions to decline than to improve.[[footnote 36]] \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe findings also show changing views about the COVID-19 crisis\u0026rsquo;s effect on domestic and global GDP. When asked which of nine crisis-related scenarios respondents think is likeliest in their countries, they most often select scenario A1, which is characterized by partially effective policy and public-health responses, rather than September\u0026rsquo;s most-cited scenario, B1, which involves virus containment, sector damage, and a lower growth rate over the long term. At the global level, respondents also choose scenario A1 most often, as they have since April. However, scenario B2\u0026mdash;marked by virus recurrence and slow long-term growth\u0026mdash;has replaced B1 as the second-most-cited scenario for the world economy. (To learn more about the scenarios and how respondents in selected countries rate the likelihood of each one, currently and over time, see \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy\"\u003eNine scenarios for the COVID-19 economy\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs for respondents\u0026rsquo; expectations for their own companies, the shares reporting positive expectations for profits and demand are the largest since the pandemic was declared. The 55 percent of respondents expecting their companies\u0026rsquo; profits to increase in the coming months is more than double the share who said so six months ago. A similar share\u0026mdash;56 percent\u0026mdash;predict that customer demand will increase.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 8]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eSeptember 2020\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eExecutives are more hopeful about the economy\u0026mdash;and their own companies\u0026rsquo; performance\u0026mdash;than they have been since the COVID-19 crisis began.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSix months after WHO\u003c/strong\u003e declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic,[[footnote 37]] the responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey suggest a positive shift in economic sentiment.[[footnote 38]] More than half of all executives surveyed say economic conditions in their own countries will be better six months from now, while another 30 percent say they will worsen: it\u0026rsquo;s the smallest share of respondents all year to expect declining conditions. And except for those in developing markets,[[footnote 39]] respondents in every region are more likely to predict that conditions will improve than that conditions will worsen. That is even true of those in North America, where, between June and July 2020, respondents\u0026rsquo; outlooks had taken a negative turn.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe share of respondents predicting improvements in the global economy has also grown over the past few months. Now 57 percent say so, compared with 52 percent in June and 25 percent in March. Across regions, emerging-economy respondents report more positive views on the global economy than their peers do: 73 percent expect global conditions to improve in the next six months, compared with 49 percent in developed economies\u0026mdash;a much greater gap than previous surveys this year.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLikewise, hopes are increasingly high for respondents\u0026rsquo; own companies. For the first time in 2020, majorities predict that both demand and profits will increase in the months ahead.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe survey results also suggest shifting views about the COVID-19 pandemic\u0026rsquo;s impact on GDP, at least close to home. When asked which of the nine pandemic-related scenarios is most likely, respondents continue to pick the same scenario for the global economy as they have since the spring: A1, characterized by partially effective policy and public-health responses and a years-long economic recovery. But for respondents\u0026rsquo; own economies, executives now select a scenario that involves virus containment, sector damage, and a lower growth rate over the long term (B1) most often.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003eEconomic Conditions Snapshot, September 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 6]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eJuly 2020\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eIn North America and developing markets, respondents\u0026rsquo; economic outlook is less favorable than in June. Across regions, views are more uncertain on COVID-19 recovery but more hopeful on company prospects.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eNations around the world\u003c/strong\u003e are struggling to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact, and responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy highlight the magnitude of the challenge\u0026mdash;especially in certain geographies.[[footnote 40]] In North America and in developing markets, executives have become less hopeful since early June about their countries\u0026rsquo; economies and more cautious than others in their views on potential scenarios for COVID-19 recovery. Overall expectations on these scenarios also suggest growing caution and uncertainty. Even so, respondents\u0026rsquo; outlook for their own companies continues to brighten. For the first time in 2020, respondents are more likely to expect their companies\u0026rsquo; profits to increase than decrease in the months ahead.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn the whole, executives maintain the more positive than negative outlook they reported \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003ein June\u003c/a\u003e, for both the world economy and their home countries,[[footnote 41]] and they are less likely than in previous months to expect declining growth rates globally and at home. While respondents\u0026rsquo; outlooks about their countries\u0026rsquo; economies have improved in most regions over the past four surveys, responses in North America and developing markets have taken a negative turn since June.[[footnote 42]] What\u0026rsquo;s more, when asked about COVID-19\u0026rsquo;s effects on domestic GDP, respondents in North America and developing markets are much less likely than last month to select one of the more optimistic options out of nine scenarios.[[footnote 43]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAcross all geographies, views on the COVID-19 recovery have also become less favorable. \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003eIn June\u003c/a\u003e, the optimistic A3 scenario (in which the virus is contained and growth returns slowly to precrisis levels) and A1 scenario (in which public-health and economic-policy interventions are partially effective, and the return to precrisis levels of GDP, income, and corporate earnings will take time) were selected most often as outcomes for respondents\u0026rsquo; home economies. Now, the largest share of respondents rank A1 as the likeliest outcome for their own countries in the next year, followed by B2, in which public-health interventions are effective but do not prevent virus reoccurrences, and economic-policy interventions are insufficient to deliver a full recovery to precrisis levels. Similarly, when asked about these \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/crushing-coronavirus-uncertainty-the-big-unlock-for-our-economies\"\u003escenarios at the global level\u003c/a\u003e, respondents most often choose A1, as they have since April, and B2 has replaced the more optimistic A3 as the second most cited scenario for the world economy.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents are more upbeat when considering their companies\u0026rsquo; prospects over the next six months. In each survey since April, a growing share of respondents have expected their companies\u0026rsquo; profits to increase. For the first time in 2020, respondents are now more likely to predict an increase than a decrease.[[footnote 44]] Furthermore, the share of respondents who say they expect customer demand for their companies\u0026rsquo; products or services to weaken in the months ahead has continually decreased since April.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy industry, respondents in automotive and assembly; healthcare services, pharma, and medical products; and travel, transport, and logistics\u0026mdash;all sectors hit especially hard by the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s knock-on effects\u0026mdash;are much more likely now than in June to expect demand for their companies\u0026rsquo; products or services to increase in the months ahead. In contrast, respondents in retail, one of the most optimistic segments in the June survey, have become much more downbeat.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 5]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eJune 2020\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eIn our latest survey on the economy, executives\u0026rsquo; overall outlook for the future continues to improve.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAs the world grapples\u003c/strong\u003e with the COVID-19 pandemic that continues to affect a growing number of countries and people,[[footnote 45]] the responses to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy suggest increasing optimism.[[footnote 46]] Executives report ever-more-positive expectations for company demand and profitability\u0026mdash;two months after reporting record pessimism on both fronts\u0026mdash;and for their countries\u0026rsquo; economic prospects.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhile executives\u0026rsquo; views on company profits remain more negative than positive, the share expecting increased profitability has grown. Respondents are more likely to expect customer demand will increase than decrease; two months ago, the opposite was true.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy industry, more than half of respondents in retail and in high tech and telecom expect demand to rise. Retail executives also report a much more optimistic view on demand since the April 2020 survey, as do those in capital projects and infrastructure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen asked about the economy\u0026rsquo;s future, respondents are cautiously but increasingly optimistic. Fifty-one percent say the world economy will be better six months from now, a share that has grown throughout 2020. Similarly, one-half of respondents expect conditions in their home economies to improve; in May, 43 percent said so, up from 36 percent in April and 26 percent in March. Except in Greater China, India, and Latin America\u0026mdash;where respondents\u0026rsquo; outlooks have held steady\u0026mdash;executives in every region are more likely than in May to expect improvements.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat\u0026rsquo;s more, the share of respondents expecting global and domestic growth rates to increase in the next six months has grown since April and May.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below and our longer article, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003eEconomic Conditions Snapshot, June 2020: McKinsey Global Survey results\u003c/a\u003e.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 3]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eMay 2020\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eEconomic sentiment has improved since last month, per our latest survey of global executives on COVID-19 and the economy. Still, their near-term outlook remains more negative than positive.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSince early April,\u003c/strong\u003e a growing number of businesses and governments around the world have begun to reopen, ushering in a new\u0026mdash;if tenuous\u0026mdash;phase of the coronavirus situation. Likewise, the results from our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy (conducted from May 4 to May 8, 2020) point to an improving outlook.[[Footnote 47]] Executives are much likelier now than in April or \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003eMarch\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;to expect improving conditions and increased growth rates in the months ahead.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYet executives are still more negative than positive in their expectations for their home economies and the world economy at large, as they were one month ago. And as the results show, \u003ca href=\"/industries/healthcare/our-insights/beyond-coronavirus-the-path-to-the-next-normal\"\u003ethe path to a next normal\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;looks very different across regions and industries. Executives in Greater China[[Footnote 48]] were the most optimistic about domestic economic conditions in April and remain so this month: 75 percent expect conditions to improve in the next six months, up from 63 percent previously. Half of that share\u0026mdash;just 34 percent\u0026mdash;say the same in Europe. But even respondents there are notably more positive about their economies than they were one month ago. Among all regions, respondents in India report the largest shift toward positive sentiment since last month.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[disruptor1up dis1]]\n\u003cp\u003eAt the company level, respondents most often cite weak consumer demand as a threat to their organizations\u0026rsquo; growth. But other risks loom large in certain sectors. Respondents in financial services, for example, cite volatile financial markets as the biggest threat to company growth. And according to respondents, supply-chain disruptions present an outsize risk in several industries\u0026mdash;namely, pharma, chemicals, consumer and packaged goods, and automotive and assembly. What\u0026rsquo;s more, when we asked respondents in industrial and manufacturing sectors about value-chain disruptions resulting from the coronavirus,[[Footnote 49]] only 15 percent say COVID-19 has \u003cem\u003enot\u003c/em\u003e caused a material disruption to their value chains, and another one-third say the current disruption is the worst their companies have ever experienced.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below. \u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 2]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eApril 2020\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eIn our latest survey, global executives report a gloomier outlook than one month ago. Two-thirds expect a sizable contraction in the world economy, and a record share predict declining company profits.\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAs the COVID-19 pandemic spreads\u003c/strong\u003e quickly across and within geographies, executives share growing concerns about its economic impact\u0026mdash;and, varying by region, dramatic shifts in their views since \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/economic-conditions-outlooks-2020\"\u003ethe beginning of March\u003c/a\u003e.[[footnote 50]] Responses to our latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy,[[footnote 51]] conducted from April 6 to April 10, show that overall sentiment is more negative than it was just one month ago: for example, two-thirds of respondents expect a moderate or significant contraction in the world economy\u0026rsquo;s growth rate\u0026mdash;that is, a recession or a depression. In early March, only 42 percent said the same. And 56 percent say the same thing about growth in their home economies, up from 24 percent one month ago.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRespondents\u0026rsquo; overall outlook for their home countries and the global economy has changed less in the past month, though their views remain decidedly downbeat. At least six in ten believe that conditions in their home economies and in the global economy will worsen in the coming months. At the company level, prospects are especially grim. Respondents are nearly twice as likely as they were one month ago to say that the profits of their companies will decrease in the next few months; at 61 percent, that is the largest share to report a negative outlook on profits since we began asking the question, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.[[footnote 52]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEven so, the results point to some bright spots. When asked about nine scenarios for the pandemic\u0026rsquo;s impact on GDP, a majority of respondents say the four more positive scenarios are most likely to play out in the next year (exhibit).[[footnote 53]]\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Exhibit A]]\n\u003cp\u003eAs for the prospects of national economies, respondents in China[[footnote 54]] are much more optimistic than those elsewhere, even compared with their counterparts in the rest of Asia\u0026mdash;and much more positive than they were one month ago. Respondents in North America are also likelier than others to expect improvements in the months ahead, even though the number of US cases of COVID-19 exceeded China\u0026rsquo;s two weeks before the survey was in the field.[[footnote 55]] Respondents in Latin America expect their economies will be hardest hit in the near term, compared with other regions, and sentiment there\u0026mdash;as well as in most other geographies\u0026mdash;has become more negative since the previous survey.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor more detail on the survey\u0026rsquo;s results, please see the exhibits below.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Ceros 1]]\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis update was edited by Daniella Seiler, an editor in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":false},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Survey"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2020-04-20T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from August 29 to September 2, 2022, and garnered responses from 1,247 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from June 6 to June 10, 2022, and garnered responses from 899 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Greater China\u0026rdquo; includes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from February 28 to March 4, 2022, and garnered responses from 785 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP. \u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThirty-nine percent of respondents in Greater China cite the COVID-19 pandemic as one of the biggest risks to domestic growth over the next 12 months, compared with 5 percent of respondents in all other regions who say the same.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from November 29 to December 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 955 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern,\u0026rdquo; WHO, November 26, 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from October 11 to October 15, 2021, and garnered responses from 902 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIn the October survey, we asked about labor shortages for the first time in both questions about risks to growth. \u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from August 30 to September 3, 2021, and garnered responses from 958 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSince March 2011, we have asked respondents how they expect conditions in the global economy to change over the next six months. In the COVID-19 pandemic\u0026rsquo;s second year, record shares of respondents have predicted improvements in the global economy (starting in March 2021, with 69 percent of respondents); before then, the largest share to predict improvements was in December 2020 (62 percent).\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from July 12 to July 16, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,002 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIn June, 81 percent of developed-economy respondents expected improvement, as did 82 percent of emerging-economy respondents.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes respondents in Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes respondents in the Middle East and North Africa.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from May 31 to June 4, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,010 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field April 12 to April 16, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,199 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDuring the week of April 19, the number of new COVID-19 cases per day exceeded 300,000 in India. As of April 27, 2021, India has recorded more than 5.7 million new COVID-19 cases in the month of April; Coronavirus world map: Tracking the global outbreak, \u003cem\u003eNew York Times\u003c/em\u003e, April 28, 2021, nytimes.com.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIn the March 2021 survey, the COVID-19 pandemic was the most cited risk to growth in respondents\u0026rsquo; countries in every region but India (\u0026ldquo;unemployment\u0026rdquo;) and Latin America (\u0026ldquo;domestic political conflicts\u0026rdquo;).\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Media briefing on COVID-19, WHO Director-General\u0026rsquo;s opening remarks,\u0026rdquo; World Health Organization, March 11, 2020, who.int.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe survey was in the field March 1 to March 5, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,018 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIn our latest survey, 74 percent of respondents say they expect their countries\u0026rsquo; economies will be better six months from now. Since then, the highest shares to say so were 69 percent in February 2004, and 68 percent in December 2009, during the recovery from the 2007\u0026ndash;08 financial crisis.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from January 11 to January 15, 2021, and garnered responses from 1,025 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe week before the survey was in the field, authorities in every region of the world except Southeast Asia reported double-digit increases in the numbers of new cases over the past seven days. Japan also notified the World Health Organization of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, the third variant of the virus to be reported since mid-December. \u0026ldquo;COVID-19 weekly epidemiological update,\u0026rdquo; World Health Organization, January 12, 2021, who.int.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Andorra, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e The online survey was in the field from November 20 to December 4, 2020, and garnered responses from 1,382 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eBetween the October and December surveys, McKinsey updated the GDP predictions for its nine COVID-19 economic scenarios to reflect GDP changes to date since March 2020, when the scenarios were first developed. For more on the original scenarios, see Kevin Buehler, Arvind Govindarajan, Ezra Greenberg, Martin Hirt, Susan Lund, and Sven Smit, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time\"\u003eSafeguarding our lives \u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003eand\u003c/span\u003e our livelihoods: The imperative of our time\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; March 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;COVID-19 weekly epidemiological update,\u0026rdquo; WHO, October 20, 2020, covid19.who.int.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from October 12 to October 16, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,264 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIn September, respondents in developing markets were the only subset more likely to expect their countries\u0026rsquo; economic conditions to decline than to improve.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Timeline: WHO\u0026rsquo;s COVID-19 response,\u0026rdquo; WHO, July 30, 2020, who.int.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from August 31 to September 4, 2020, and garnered responses from 1,138 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes respondents in the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from July 13 to July 17, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,112 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eForty-seven percent of respondents say the world economy will improve in the next six months, down from 51 percent who said so in June. Forty-eight percent of respondents say they expect their countries\u0026rsquo; economies to improve in the next six months, compared with 50 percent in June.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDeveloping markets include the Middle East and North Africa.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSven Smit and Martin Hirt, with Penny Dash, Audrey Lucas, Tom Latkovic, Matt Wilson, Ezra Greenberg, Kevin Buehler, and Klemens Hjartar, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/crushing-coronavirus-uncertainty-the-big-unlock-for-our-economies\"\u003eCrushing coronavirus uncertainty: The big \u0026lsquo;unlock\u0026rsquo; for our economies\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; May 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe share predicting an increase\u0026mdash;45 percent\u0026mdash;is smaller than it\u0026rsquo;s been since September 2011, which was the last survey in which fewer than half of respondents expected their companies\u0026rsquo; profits to increase.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eDuring the days that the survey was in the field (June 1 to June 5, 2020), 578,473 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. \u0026ldquo;WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard,\u0026rdquo; WHO, covid19.who.int.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from June 1 to June 5, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,222 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from May 4 to May 8, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,514 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes Hong Kong and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes respondents in the following industries and subindustries: advanced electronics, aerospace and defense, agriculture, automotive and assembly (automotive, machinery, and industrial goods), chemicals, consumer and packaged goods (apparel and fashion, consumer health, food and beverages, and household durables), high tech (hardware), pharma and medical products, semiconductors, and telecom equipment; n = 651.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from March 2 to March 6, 2020, and garnered responses from 1,152 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data were weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe online survey was in the field from April 6 to April 10, 2020, and garnered responses from 2,121 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent\u0026rsquo;s nation to global GDP.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/what-executives-think-about-the-economy-2004-to-now\"\u003eWhat executives think about the economy: 2004 to now\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; March 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFor more on McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s COVID-19 scenarios, see Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/in-the-tunnel-executive-expectations-about-the-shape-of-the-coronavirus-crisis\"\u003eIn the tunnel: Executive expectations about the shape of the coronavirus crisis\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; April 2020; and Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind Govindarajan, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/safeguarding-our-lives-and-our-livelihoods-the-imperative-of-our-time\"\u003eSafeguarding our lives \u003cspan style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"\u003eand\u003c/span\u003e our livelihoods: The imperative of our time\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; March 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eIncludes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report 68\u003c/em\u003e, World Health Organization, March 28, 2020, who.int.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Strategy \u0026 Corporate Finance"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003eThe survey content and analysis were developed by \u003cstrong\u003eJeffrey Condon\u003c/strong\u003e, a senior knowledge expert in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s Atlanta office; \u003cstrong\u003eKrzysztof Kwiatkowski\u003c/strong\u003e and \u003cstrong\u003eVivien Singer\u003c/strong\u003e, both capabilities and insights experts at the Waltham Client Capabilities Hub; and\u0026nbsp;\u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/sven-smit\"\u003eSven Smit\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e, the chair and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner in the Amsterdam office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Heather Hanselman, an associate editor in the Atlanta office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Nine scenarios for the COVID-19 economy"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/nine-scenarios-for-the-covid-19-economy"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interactive"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interactive"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Learn more about potential economic outcomes of the COVID-19 crisis and how global executives rate the likelihood of each one."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/nine scenarios for the covid 19 economy/9-scenarios-1240480211-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Nine scenarios for the COVID-19 economy"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, November 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October","mediaID":{"value":"Q"},"includeTheAccessibilityDisclaimerText":{"boolValue":true},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"hideBottomBorder":{"boolValue":false},"hideEyebrow":{"boolValue":false},"eyebrow":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"displayNumber":{"value":"2"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"desktopImage":{"alt":"Executives report ever-more-positive expectations for their companies’ profitability and customer demand.","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/october 2020/svgz-covid-esnapshotoct-ex2.svgz","description":""},"mobileImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Medium content column width"},"value":{"value":"medium"}}},"flourishDataVisualizationID":{"value":""},"pNGImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/october 2020/png-covid-esnapshotoct-ex2.png","alt":"While outlooks on respondents’ national economies generally continue to brighten, they have tempered in Greater China and Europe."},"height":{"value":"1322"},"width":{"value":"1536"},"mobileSVGImage":{"src":null,"alt":""},"mobilePNGImage":{"src":null,"alt":""}},{"id":"F3D4B87351B94DD49369110F7B64DE2B","displayName":"Exhibit 4 October","mediaID":{"value":"R"},"includeTheAccessibilityDisclaimerText":{"boolValue":true},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"hideBottomBorder":{"boolValue":false},"hideEyebrow":{"boolValue":false},"eyebrow":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"displayNumber":{"value":"4"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"desktopImage":{"alt":"The percentage of executives surveyed who expected an increase in profits and customer demands rose in October to nearly double what it was in April, when the percentage had gone down following the pandemic outbreak.","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/october 2020/svgz-covid-esnapshotoct-ex4.svgz","description":"\u003ch2\u003eExecutives report ever-more-positive expectations for their companies' profitability and customer demand.\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eExpected changes at respondents' companies in next 6 months,\u003c/strong\u003e % of respondents\u003csup\u003e1\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eChart summary\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAmong executives surveyed in April 2020, most expected a decrease in profits and customer demands after the pandemic outbreak. The percentage of executives who expected an increase rose by 20% or more over the next few months.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eChart data\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eProfits\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003ctable\u003e\n \u003ccaption\u003eExpected changes in profits by the share of executives surveyed in the months after the pandemic onset.\u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eMonth in 2020\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eIncrease\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eNo change\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eDecrease\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eMarch\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e42\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e22\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e33\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eApril\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e27\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e9\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e61\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eMay\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e33\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e10\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e54\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eJune\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e37\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e11\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e49\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eJuly\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e45\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e14\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e37\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eSeptember\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e53\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e13\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e31\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eOctober\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e55\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e16\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e27\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\n\u003ch4\u003eCustomer demand\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003ctable\u003e\n \u003ccaption\u003eExpected changes in customer demand by the share of executives surveyed in the months after the pandemic onset.\u003c/caption\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eMonth in 2020\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eIncrease\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eNo change\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"col\"\u003eDecrease\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eMarch\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e39\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e32\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e28\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eApril\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e36\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e15\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e48\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eMay\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e43\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e16\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e41\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eJune\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e42\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e22\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e36\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eJuly\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e48\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e25\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e26\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eSeptember\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e53\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e24\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e23\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003cth scope=\"row\"\u003eOctober\u003c/th\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e56\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e26\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd\u003e17\u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eNotes\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003csup\u003e1\u003c/sup\u003eRespondents who answered \"don't know\" are not shown. Questions were aksed only of respondents working for private-sector organizations. In Mar 2020, n = 1,060; in Apr 2020, n = 1,940; in May 2020, n = 2,290; in June 2020, n = 1,985; in July 2020, n = 1,900; in Sept 2020, n = 1,010; and in Oct 2020, n = 2,041.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMcKinsey \u0026 Company\u003c/p\u003e\n"},"mobileImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Medium content column width"},"value":{"value":"medium"}}},"flourishDataVisualizationID":{"value":""},"pNGImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/october 2020/png-covid-esnapshotoct-ex4.png","alt":"The percentage of executives surveyed who expected an increase in profits and customer demands rose in October to nearly double what it was in April, when the percentage had gone down following the pandemic 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","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/july 2020/svgz-julyeconomicsurvey-ex2.svgz","description":""},"mobileImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Medium content column width"},"value":{"value":"medium"}}},"flourishDataVisualizationID":{"value":""},"pNGImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/july 2020/png-julyeconomicsurvey-ex2.png","alt":"In North America and developing markets, outlooks on respondents’ home economies have taken a negative turn. "},"height":{"value":"1316"},"width":{"value":"1536"},"mobileSVGImage":{"src":null,"alt":""},"mobilePNGImage":{"src":null,"alt":""}},{"id":"91B78F735E914CC3AD2E6FAF6F6AED33","displayName":"Exhibit 3 July","mediaID":{"value":"I"},"includeTheAccessibilityDisclaimerText":{"boolValue":true},"headline":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"hideBottomBorder":{"boolValue":false},"hideEyebrow":{"boolValue":false},"eyebrow":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"displayNumber":{"value":"3"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":""}},"desktopImage":{"alt":"Respondents continue to choose A1 as the likeliest COVID-19 scenario for their countries, but responses have shifted toward B2.","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/strategy and corporate finance/our insights/the coronavirus effect on global economic sentiment/july 2020/svgz-julyeconomicsurvey-ex3.svgz","description":""},"mobileImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"renderMode":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"Medium content column 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