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class="vector-toc-numb">2</span> <span>Estimations</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Estimations-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Estimations subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Estimations-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Recent_and_currently_remaining_carbon_budget" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Recent_and_currently_remaining_carbon_budget"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Recent and currently remaining carbon budget</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Recent_and_currently_remaining_carbon_budget-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Carbon_budget_in_gigatonnes_and_factors" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Carbon_budget_in_gigatonnes_and_factors"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>Carbon budget in gigatonnes and factors</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Carbon_budget_in_gigatonnes_and_factors-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-National_emissions_budgets" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#National_emissions_budgets"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>National emissions budgets</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-National_emissions_budgets-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Pathways_to_stay_within_carbon_budget" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Pathways_to_stay_within_carbon_budget"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Pathways to stay within carbon budget</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Pathways_to_stay_within_carbon_budget-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#External_links"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">7</span> <span>External links</span> </div> </a> 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interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressupost_de_carboni" title="Pressupost de carboni – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Pressupost de carboni" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Català</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cs mw-list-item"><a href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uhl%C3%ADkov%C3%BD_rozpo%C4%8Det" title="Uhlíkový rozpočet – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Uhlíkový rozpočet" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/CO2-Budget" title="CO2-Budget – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="CO2-Budget" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presupuesto_de_carbono" title="Presupuesto de carbono – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Presupuesto de carbono" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_carbone" title="Budget carbone – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Budget carbone" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%ED%83%84%EC%86%8C_%EC%98%88%EC%82%B0" title="탄소 예산 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="탄소 예산" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ig mw-list-item"><a href="https://ig.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mmefu_ego_carbon" title="Mmefu ego carbon – Igbo" lang="ig" hreflang="ig" data-title="Mmefu ego carbon" data-language-autonym="Igbo" data-language-local-name="Igbo" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Igbo</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%AB%E3%83%BC%E3%83%9C%E3%83%B3%E3%83%90%E3%82%B8%E3%82%A7%E3%83%83%E3%83%88" title="カーボンバジェット – Japanese" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="カーボンバジェット" data-language-autonym="日本語" data-language-local-name="Japanese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>日本語</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%AD%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9_%D0%B1%D1%8E%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D1%82_%D0%A1%D0%9E2" title="Эмиссионный бюджет СО2 – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Эмиссионный бюджет СО2" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Русский</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fi mw-list-item"><a href="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiilibudjetti" title="Hiilibudjetti – Finnish" lang="fi" hreflang="fi" data-title="Hiilibudjetti" data-language-autonym="Suomi" data-language-local-name="Finnish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Suomi</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koldioxidbudget" title="Koldioxidbudget – Swedish" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="Koldioxidbudget" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="Swedish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Svenska</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%95%D0%BC%D1%96%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%B1%D1%8E%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D1%82_%D0%A1%D0%9E2" 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</div> </nav> </div> </div> </div> <div class="vector-column-end"> <div class="vector-sticky-pinned-container"> <nav class="vector-page-tools-landmark" aria-label="Page tools"> <div id="vector-page-tools-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> </div> </nav> <nav class="vector-appearance-landmark" aria-label="Appearance"> <div id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" class="vector-pinned-container"> <div id="vector-appearance" class="vector-appearance vector-pinnable-element"> <div class="vector-pinnable-header vector-appearance-pinnable-header vector-pinnable-header-pinned" data-feature-name="appearance-pinned" data-pinnable-element-id="vector-appearance" data-pinned-container-id="vector-appearance-pinned-container" data-unpinned-container-id="vector-appearance-unpinned-container" > <div class="vector-pinnable-header-label">Appearance</div> <button class="vector-pinnable-header-toggle-button vector-pinnable-header-pin-button" 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div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">For the assessment of the biogeochemical cycle by which carbon is exchanged at the global level between sources and sinks in the biosphere, pedosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere, also referred to as the Global Carbon Budget, see <a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a>.</div> <figure typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Carbon_budget_eng.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/47/Carbon_budget_eng.png/350px-Carbon_budget_eng.png" decoding="async" width="350" height="268" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/47/Carbon_budget_eng.png/525px-Carbon_budget_eng.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/47/Carbon_budget_eng.png/700px-Carbon_budget_eng.png 2x" data-file-width="989" data-file-height="758" /></a><figcaption>Carbon budget and <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">emission</a> reduction scenarios needed to reach the two-degree target agreed to in the <a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> (without net <a href="/wiki/Negative_emissions_technologies" class="mw-redirect" title="Negative emissions technologies">negative emissions</a>, based on peak emissions)<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>A <b>carbon budget</b> is a concept used in <a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">climate policy</a> to help set <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">emissions</a> reduction targets in a fair and effective way. It examines the "maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>) emissions that would result in limiting <a href="/wiki/Climate_change" title="Climate change">global warming</a> to a given level".<sup id="cite_ref-:17_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:17-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2220">: 2220 </span></sup> It can be expressed relative to the <a href="/wiki/Industrialisation" title="Industrialisation">pre-industrial period</a> (the year 1750). In this case, it is the <i>total carbon budget.</i> Or it can be expressed from a recent specified date onwards. In that case it is the <i>remaining carbon budget</i>.<sup id="cite_ref-:17_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:17-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2220">: 2220 </span></sup> </p><p>A carbon budget that will keep global warming below a specified temperature limit is also called an <b>emissions budget</b> or <b>quota</b>, or <b>allowable emissions</b>.<sup id="cite_ref-pmid19407799_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pmid19407799-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-matthews_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-matthews-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:8_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:8-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Apart from limiting the <a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">global temperature increase</a>, another objective of such an emissions budget can be to limit <a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">sea level rise</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Scientists combine estimates of various contributing factors to calculate the carbon budget. The estimates take into account the available scientific evidence as well as value judgments or choices.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:6_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:6-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Global carbon budgets can be further sub-divided into national emissions budgets. This can help countries set their own emission goals. Emissions budgets indicate a finite amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted over time, before resulting in dangerous levels of global warming. The change in global temperature is independent of the source of these emissions, and is largely independent of the timing of these emissions.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-pmid19516338_11-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pmid19516338-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>To translate global carbon budgets to the country level, a set of value judgments have to be made on how to distribute the remaining carbon budget over all the different countries. This should take into account aspects of equity and fairness between countries<sup id="cite_ref-:6_8-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:6-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> as well as other methodological choices.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_12-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> There are many differences between nations, such as population size, level of industrialisation, historic emissions, and mitigation capabilities. For this reason, scientists are attempting to allocate global carbon budgets among countries using various principles of equity.<sup id="cite_ref-:9_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Definition">Definition</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Definition"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Reports</a> defines <i>carbon budget</i> as the following two concepts:<sup id="cite_ref-:17_2-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:17-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: 2220">: 2220 </span></sup> </p> <ul><li>"An assessment of carbon cycle sources and sinks on a global level, through the synthesis of evidence for fossil fuel and cement emissions, emissions and removals associated with land use and <a href="/wiki/Land-use_change" class="mw-redirect" title="Land-use change">land-use change</a>, ocean and natural land sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), and the resulting change in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration. This is referred to as the <i>global carbon budget.</i>"; or</li> <li>"The maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions that would result in limiting global warming to a given level with a given probability, taking into account the effect of other anthropogenic climate forcers. This is referred to as the <i>total carbon budget</i> when expressed starting from the pre-industrial period, and as the <i>remaining carbon budget</i> when expressed from a recent specified date."</li></ul> <p>Global carbon budgets can be further divided into national emissions budgets, so that countries can set specific climate mitigation goals. </p><p>An emissions budget may be distinguished from an <a href="/wiki/Emissions_target" class="mw-redirect" title="Emissions target">emissions target</a>, as an emissions target may be internationally or nationally set in accordance with objectives other than a specific global temperature and are commonly applied to the annual emissions in a single year as well. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Estimations">Estimations</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Estimations"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Carbon_monitoring" title="Carbon monitoring">Carbon monitoring</a></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Recent_and_currently_remaining_carbon_budget">Recent and currently remaining carbon budget</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Recent and currently remaining carbon budget"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1237032888/mw-parser-output/.tmulti">.mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner{display:flex;flex-direction:column}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{display:flex;flex-direction:row;clear:left;flex-wrap:wrap;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{margin:1px;float:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .theader{clear:both;font-weight:bold;text-align:center;align-self:center;background-color:transparent;width:100%}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbcaption{background-color:transparent}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-left{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-right{text-align:right}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .text-align-center{text-align:center}@media all and (max-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .tmulti .thumbinner{width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:none!important;align-items:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow{justify-content:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle{float:none!important;max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .tsingle .thumbcaption{text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .tmulti .trow>.thumbcaption{text-align:center}}@media screen{html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner img{background-color:white}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .tmulti .multiimageinner img{background-color:white}}</style><div class="thumb tmulti tright"><div class="thumbinner multiimageinner" style="width:492px;max-width:492px"><div class="trow"><div class="tsingle" style="width:292px;max-width:292px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:163px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:1850-_Global_carbon_budget_-_Global_Carbon_Project_-_offset-stacked_bar_chart.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/62/1850-_Global_carbon_budget_-_Global_Carbon_Project_-_offset-stacked_bar_chart.svg/290px-1850-_Global_carbon_budget_-_Global_Carbon_Project_-_offset-stacked_bar_chart.svg.png" decoding="async" width="290" height="163" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/62/1850-_Global_carbon_budget_-_Global_Carbon_Project_-_offset-stacked_bar_chart.svg/435px-1850-_Global_carbon_budget_-_Global_Carbon_Project_-_offset-stacked_bar_chart.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/62/1850-_Global_carbon_budget_-_Global_Carbon_Project_-_offset-stacked_bar_chart.svg/580px-1850-_Global_carbon_budget_-_Global_Carbon_Project_-_offset-stacked_bar_chart.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1200" data-file-height="675" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">Historical (unrestrained) carbon budget: Cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget since 1850 illustrate how source and sink components have been out of balance, causing an approximately 50% rise in atmospheric CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>.<sup id="cite_ref-GlobalCarbonBudget_2021_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-GlobalCarbonBudget_2021-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div><div class="tsingle" style="width:196px;max-width:196px"><div class="thumbimage" style="height:163px;overflow:hidden"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Budget_Results_-_Fossil_CO2_emissions_charts.png" class="mw-file-description"><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Global_Carbon_Budget_Results_-_Fossil_CO2_emissions_charts.png/194px-Global_Carbon_Budget_Results_-_Fossil_CO2_emissions_charts.png" decoding="async" width="194" height="163" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Global_Carbon_Budget_Results_-_Fossil_CO2_emissions_charts.png/291px-Global_Carbon_Budget_Results_-_Fossil_CO2_emissions_charts.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Global_Carbon_Budget_Results_-_Fossil_CO2_emissions_charts.png/388px-Global_Carbon_Budget_Results_-_Fossil_CO2_emissions_charts.png 2x" data-file-width="2067" data-file-height="1737" /></a></span></div><div class="thumbcaption">Fossil CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions: global; territorial; by fuel type (incl cement); per capita<sup id="cite_ref-10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div></div></div></div> <p>Several organisations provide annual updates to the remaining carbon budget, including the <a href="/wiki/Global_Carbon_Project" title="Global Carbon Project">Global Carbon Project</a>, the <a href="/wiki/Mercator_Research_Institute_on_Global_Commons_and_Climate_Change" title="Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change">Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change</a> (MCC)<sup id="cite_ref-mcc_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-mcc-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and the CONSTRAIN project.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In March 2022, before formal publication of the "Global Carbon Budget 2021" <a href="/wiki/Preprint" title="Preprint">preprint</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022_15-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> scientists reported, based on Carbon Monitor<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> (CM) data, that after <a href="/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_the_environment#Climate_change" title="Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment">COVID-19-pandemic-caused</a> record-level declines in 2020, global CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions rebounded sharply by 4.8% in 2021, indicating that at the current trajectory, the carbon budget for a ⅔ likelihood for limiting warming to 1.5 °C would be used up within 9.5 years.<sup id="cite_ref-10.1038/s43017-022-00285-w_19-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1038/s43017-022-00285-w-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In April 2022, the now <a href="/wiki/Peer-review" class="mw-redirect" title="Peer-review">reviewed</a> and officially published <a href="/wiki/Global_Carbon_Project#Global_Carbon_Budget" title="Global Carbon Project">The Global Carbon Budget 2021</a> concluded that fossil CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions rebounded<sup id="cite_ref-20" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> from <a href="/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_the_environment#Climate_change" title="Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the environment">pandemic levels</a> by around +4.8% relative to 2020 emissions – returning to 2019 levels. </p><p>It identifies three major issues for improving reliable accuracy of monitoring, shows that China and India surpassed 2019 levels (by 5.7% and 3.2%) while the EU and the US stayed beneath 2019 levels (by 5.3% and 4.5%), quantifies various changes and trends, for the first time provides models' estimates that are linked to the official country <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_inventory" title="Greenhouse gas inventory">GHG inventories</a> reporting, and suggests that the remaining carbon budget at 1. Jan 2022 for a 50% likelihood to <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">limit global warming</a> to 1.5 °C (albeit a temporary exceedence is to be expected) is 120 GtC (420 GtCO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>) – or 11 years of 2021 emissions levels.<sup id="cite_ref-10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022_15-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>This does not mean that likely 11 years remain to cut emissions but that if emissions stayed the same, instead of increasing like in 2021, 11 years of constant GHG emissions would be left in the hypothetical scenario that all emissions suddenly ceased in the 12th year. (The 50% likelihood may be describable as a kind of minimum plausible deniability requirement as lower likelihoods would make the 1.5 °C goal "unlikely".) Moreover, other trackers show (or highlight) different amounts of carbon budget left, such as the MCC, which as of May 2022 shows "7 years 1 month left"<sup id="cite_ref-mcc_16-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-mcc-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and different likelihoods have different carbon budgets: a 83% likelihood would mean 6.6 ±0.1 years left (ending in 2028) according to CM data.<sup id="cite_ref-10.1038/s43017-022-00285-w_19-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10.1038/s43017-022-00285-w-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In October 2023 a group of researchers updated the carbon budget including the CO2 emitted at 2020-2022 and new findings about the role of reduced presence of polluting particles in the atmosphere.<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> They found we can emit 250 GtCO<sub>2</sub> or 6 years of emissions at current level starting from January 2023, for having a 50% chance to stay below 1.5 degrees. For reaching this target humanity will need to zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by the year 2034. To have a 50% chance of staying below 2 degrees humanity can emit 1220 GtCO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> or 30 years of emissions at current level.<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Carbon_budget_in_gigatonnes_and_factors">Carbon budget in gigatonnes and factors</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Carbon budget in gigatonnes and factors"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Figure-2-Scientific-evidence-vs-value-judgement-graphic-v2.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/Figure-2-Scientific-evidence-vs-value-judgement-graphic-v2.jpg/220px-Figure-2-Scientific-evidence-vs-value-judgement-graphic-v2.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="213" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/Figure-2-Scientific-evidence-vs-value-judgement-graphic-v2.jpg/330px-Figure-2-Scientific-evidence-vs-value-judgement-graphic-v2.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/Figure-2-Scientific-evidence-vs-value-judgement-graphic-v2.jpg/440px-Figure-2-Scientific-evidence-vs-value-judgement-graphic-v2.jpg 2x" data-file-width="1519" data-file-height="1473" /></a><figcaption>Estimating the remaining carbon budget at the global level depends on climate science and value judgments or choices. To translate a global budget to the national level, further value judgments and choices have to be made.<sup id="cite_ref-:5_12-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:5-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>The finding of an almost <a href="/wiki/Transient_climate_response_to_cumulative_carbon_emissions" title="Transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions">linear relationship between global temperature rise and cumulative carbon dioxide emissions</a><sup id="cite_ref-pmid19516338_11-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-pmid19516338-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> has encouraged the estimation of global emissions budgets in order to remain below dangerous levels of warming. Since the pre-industrial period (year 1750) to 2019, approximately 2390 <a href="/wiki/Gigatonnes" class="mw-redirect" title="Gigatonnes">Gigatonnes</a> of CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> (Gt CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>) has already been emitted globally.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Scientific estimations of the remaining global emissions budgets/quotas differ due to varied methodological approaches, and considerations of thresholds.<sup id="cite_ref-:4_24-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:4-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Estimations might not include all amplifying <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedback" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change feedback">climate change feedbacks</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> although the most authoritative carbon budget assessments as summarised by the <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC</a> do account explicitly for these.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_SR15_Ch2_29-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_SR15_Ch2-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Scientists assess the size of remaining carbon budgets using estimates of: </p> <ul><li>past warming caused by human activities,</li> <li>the amount of warming per cumulative unit of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions (also known as the <a href="/wiki/Transient_climate_response_to_cumulative_carbon_emissions" title="Transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions">Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions of carbon dioxide</a>, or TCRE),</li> <li>the amount of warming that could still occur once all emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> are halted (known as the Zero Emissions Commitment<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>), and</li> <li>the impact of Earth system feedbacks that would otherwise not be covered.</li></ul> <p>The estimates vary according to the global temperature target that is chosen, the probability of staying below that target, and the emission of other non-CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gases</a> (GHGs).<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_SR15_Ch2_29-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_SR15_Ch2-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:2_7-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:1_31-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This approach was first applied in the 2018 <a href="/wiki/Special_Report_on_Global_Warming_of_1.5_%C2%B0C" title="Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C">Special report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C</a> by the <a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">IPCC</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_SR15_Ch2_29-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_SR15_Ch2-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and was also used in its 2021 Working Group I Contribution to the <a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">Sixth Assessment Report</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Carbon budget estimates depend on the likelihood or probability of avoiding a temperature limit, and the assumed warming that is projected to be caused by non-CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_SR15_Ch2_29-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_SR15_Ch2-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:2_7-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These estimates assume non-CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions are also reduced in line with deep <a href="/wiki/Decarbonisation" class="mw-redirect" title="Decarbonisation">decarbonisation</a> scenarios that reach global <a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">net zero CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_SR15_Ch2_29-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_SR15_Ch2-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:2_7-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Carbon budget estimates thus depend on how successful society is in reducing non-CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions together with carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists estimated that remaining carbon budgets can be 220 Gt CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> higher or lower depending on how successful non-CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions are reduced.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div style="clear:both;" class=""></div> <table class="wikitable" style="text-align:right"> <caption>Estimated carbon budgets in GtCO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> from 2020 with likelihoods<sup id="cite_ref-:3_9-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page / location: Table 5.8">: Table 5.8 </span></sup> </caption> <tbody><tr> <th>Global warming relative to 1850-1900 </th> <th>17% </th> <th>33% </th> <th>50% </th> <th>66% </th> <th>83% </th></tr> <tr> <th>1.5 °C </th> <td>900</td> <td>650</td> <td>500</td> <td>400</td> <td>300 </td></tr> <tr> <th>1.7 °C </th> <td>1450</td> <td>1050</td> <td>850</td> <td>700</td> <td>550 </td></tr> <tr> <th>2.0 °C </th> <td>2300</td> <td>1700</td> <td>1350</td> <td>1150</td> <td>900 </td></tr></tbody></table> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="National_emissions_budgets">National emissions budgets</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: National emissions budgets"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contribution</a></div> <p>Carbon budgets are applicable to the global level. To translate these global carbon budgets to the country level, a set of value judgments have to be made on how to distribute the total and remaining carbon budget. In light of the many differences between nations, including but not limited to population, level of industrialisation, national emissions histories, and mitigation capabilities, scientists have made attempts to allocate global carbon budgets among countries using methods that follow various principles of equity.<sup id="cite_ref-:9_13-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Allocating national emissions budgets is comparable to sharing the effort to reduce global emissions, underlined by some assumptions of state-level responsibility of climate change. Many authors have conducted quantitative analyses which allocate emissions budgets,<sup id="cite_ref-:8_5-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:8-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:10_32-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:10-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:15_33-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:15-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:11_34-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:11-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_35-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> often simultaneously addressing disparities in historical GHG emissions between nations. </p><p>One guiding principle that is used to allocate global emissions budgets to nations is the principle of "<a href="/wiki/Common_But_Differentiated_Responsibilities" title="Common But Differentiated Responsibilities">common but differentiated responsibilities</a> and respective capabilities" that is included in the <a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> (UNFCCC).<sup id="cite_ref-:9_13-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This principle is not defined in further detail in the UNFCCC but is broadly understood to recognize nations' different cumulative historical contributions to global emissions as well as their different development stages. From this perspective, those countries with greater emissions during a set time period (for example, since the pre-industrial era to the present) are the most responsible for addressing excess emissions, as are countries that are richer. Thus, their national emissions budgets have to be smaller than those from countries that have polluted less in the past, or are poorer. The concept of national historical responsibility for climate change has prevailed in the literature since the early 1990s<sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-37" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and has been part of the key international agreements on climate change (UNFCCC, the <a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a> and the <a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a>). Consequently, those countries with the highest cumulative historical emissions have the most responsibility to take the strongest actions<sup id="cite_ref-botzen_38-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-botzen-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and help developing countries to mitigate their emissions and adapt to climate change. This principle is recognized in international treaties and has been part of the diplomatic strategies by developing countries, that argue that they need larger emissions budgets<sup id="cite_ref-:13_39-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> to reduce inequity and achieve <a href="/wiki/Sustainable_development" title="Sustainable development">sustainable development</a>. </p><p>Another common equity principle for calculating national emissions budgets is the "<a href="/wiki/Egalitarianism" title="Egalitarianism">egalitarian" principle</a>. This principle stipulates individuals should have equal rights, and therefore emissions budgets should be distributed proportionally according to state populations.<sup id="cite_ref-:9_13-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Some scientists have thus reasoned the use of national per-capita emissions in national emissions budget calculations.<sup id="cite_ref-:10_32-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:10-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:15_33-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:15-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:11_34-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:11-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:12_40-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:12-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This principle may be favoured by nations with larger or rapidly growing populations,<sup id="cite_ref-:13_39-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> but raises the question whether individuals can have a right to pollute.<sup id="cite_ref-:16_41-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:16-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>A third equity principle that has been employed in national budget calculations considers national <a href="/wiki/Westphalian_sovereignty" class="mw-redirect" title="Westphalian sovereignty">sovereignty</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-:9_13-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The "sovereignty" principle highlights the equal right of nations to pollute.<sup id="cite_ref-:9_13-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:9-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The grandfathering method for calculating national emissions budgets uses this principle. Grandfathering allocates these budgets proportionally according to emissions at a particular base year,<sup id="cite_ref-:12_40-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:12-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and has been used under international regimes such as the Kyoto Protocol<sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and the early phase of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This principle is often favoured by developed countries, as it allocates larger emissions budgets to them.<sup id="cite_ref-:13_39-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:13-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, recent publications highlight that grandfathering is unsupported as an equity principle as it "creates 'cascading biases' against poorer states,<sup id="cite_ref-44" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> is not a 'standard of equity'<sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>".<sup id="cite_ref-46" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Other scholars have highlighted that "to treat states as the owners of emission rights has morally problematic consequences".<sup id="cite_ref-:16_41-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:16-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Pathways_to_stay_within_carbon_budget">Pathways to stay within carbon budget</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Pathways to stay within carbon budget"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The steps that can be taken to stay within one's carbon budget are explained within the concept of <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">climate change mitigation</a>. </p> <div class="excerpt-block"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1066933788">.mw-parser-output .excerpt-hat .mw-editsection-like{font-style:normal}</style><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable dablink excerpt-hat selfref">This section is an excerpt from <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Climate change mitigation</a>.<span class="mw-editsection-like plainlinks"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Climate_change_mitigation&action=edit">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div><div class="excerpt"> <p><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Climate change mitigation</a> (or decarbonisation) is action to limit the <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gases" class="mw-redirect" title="Greenhouse gases">greenhouse gases</a> in the atmosphere that cause <a href="/wiki/Climate_change" title="Climate change">climate change</a>. Climate change mitigation actions include <a href="/wiki/Energy_conservation" title="Energy conservation">conserving energy</a> and <a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">replacing fossil fuels</a> with <a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">clean energy sources</a>. Secondary mitigation strategies include changes to land use and <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">removing carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>)</a> from the atmosphere.<sup id="cite_ref-47" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Current climate change mitigation policies are insufficient as they would still result in global warming of about 2.7 °C by 2100,<sup id="cite_ref-48" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> significantly above the 2015 <a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a>'s<sup id="cite_ref-49" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C.<sup id="cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_theguardian.com_50-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_theguardian.com-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_United_Nations_51-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_United_Nations-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p><a href="/wiki/Solar_energy" title="Solar energy">Solar energy</a> and <a href="/wiki/Wind_power" title="Wind power">wind power</a> can replace fossil fuels at the lowest cost compared to other <a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">renewable energy</a> options.<sup id="cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_AR6_WGIII_Ch_13_52-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_AR6_WGIII_Ch_13-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The availability of sunshine and wind is variable and can require <a href="/wiki/Electrical_grid" title="Electrical grid">electrical grid</a> upgrades, such as using <a href="/wiki/Super_grid" title="Super grid">long-distance electricity transmission</a> to group a range of power sources.<sup id="cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_Ram-2019_53-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_Ram-2019-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="/wiki/Energy_storage" title="Energy storage">Energy storage</a> can also be used to even out power output, and <a href="/wiki/Energy_demand_management" title="Energy demand management">demand management</a> can limit power use when power generation is low. Cleanly generated <a href="/wiki/Electrification" title="Electrification">electricity can usually replace fossil fuels</a> for powering transportation, heating buildings, and running industrial processes.<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (June 2024)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup> Certain processes are more difficult to decarbonise, such as <a href="/wiki/Environmental_effects_of_aviation" class="mw-redirect" title="Environmental effects of aviation">air travel</a> and <a href="/wiki/Cement" title="Cement">cement production</a>. <a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a> (CCS) can be an option to reduce net emissions in these circumstances, although fossil fuel power plants with CCS technology is currently a high cost climate change mitigation strategy.<sup id="cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_IEA-2022_54-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_IEA-2022-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Human land use changes such as <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture">agriculture</a> and deforestation cause about 1/4th of climate change. These changes impact how much CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> is absorbed by plant matter and how much organic matter decays or burns to release CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub>. These changes are part of the fast <a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">carbon cycle</a>, whereas fossil fuels release CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> that was buried underground as part of the slow carbon cycle. <a href="/wiki/Methane" title="Methane">Methane</a> is a short lived greenhouse gas that is produced by decaying organic matter and livestock, as well as fossil fuel extraction. Land use changes can also impact precipitation patterns and the <a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">reflectivity of the surface of the Earth</a>. It is possible to cut emissions from agriculture by reducing <a href="/wiki/Food_loss_and_waste" title="Food loss and waste">food waste</a>, switching to a more <a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">plant-based diet</a> (also referred to as <a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_diet" title="Low-carbon diet">low-carbon diet</a>), and by improving farming processes.<sup id="cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_UNEP-2022_55-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_UNEP-2022-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> Various policies can encourage climate change mitigation. <a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon pricing</a> systems have been set up that either <a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">tax CO<sub style="font-size: 80%;vertical-align: -0.35em">2</sub> emissions</a> or <a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">cap total emissions and trade emission credits</a>. <a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_subsidies" title="Fossil fuel subsidies">Fossil fuel subsidies</a> can be eliminated in favor of clean <a href="/wiki/Energy_subsidy" title="Energy subsidy">energy subsidies</a>, and incentives offered for installing energy efficiency measures or switching to electric power sources.<sup id="cite_ref-56" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Another issue is overcoming environmental objections when constructing new clean energy sources and making grid modifications.</div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_Carbon_Project" title="Global Carbon Project">Global Carbon Project</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output 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Retrieved <span class="nowrap">27 November</span> 2019</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=United+Nations+Framework+Convention+on+Climate+Change&rft.atitle=Cut+Global+Emissions+by+7.6+Percent+Every+Year+for+Next+Decade+to+Meet+1.5%C2%B0C+Paris+Target+%E2%80%93+UN+Report&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Funfccc.int%2Fnews%2Fcut-global-emissions-by-76-percent-every-year-for-next-decade-to-meet-15degc-paris-target-un-report&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ACarbon+budget" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_AR6_WGIII_Ch_13-52"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_AR6_WGIII_Ch_13_52-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">IPCC (2022) <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SPM.pdf">Summary for policy makers</a> in <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/">Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, United States</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_Ram-2019-53"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_Ram-2019_53-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Ram M., Bogdanov D., Aghahosseini A., Gulagi A., Oyewo A.S., Child M., Caldera U., Sadovskaia K., Farfan J., Barbosa LSNS., Fasihi M., Khalili S., Dalheimer B., Gruber G., Traber T., De Caluwe F., Fell H.-J., Breyer C. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf">Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy – Power, Heat, Transport and Desalination Sectors</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210401183622/http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/EWG_LUT_100RE_All_Sectors_Global_Report_2019.pdf">Archived</a> 2021-04-01 at the <a href="/wiki/Wayback_Machine" title="Wayback Machine">Wayback Machine</a>. Study by Lappeenranta University of Technology and Energy Watch Group, Lappeenranta, Berlin, March 2019.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_IEA-2022-54"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_IEA-2022_54-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.iea.org/reports/cement">"Cement – Analysis"</a>. <i>IEA</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">24 November</span> 2022</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=IEA&rft.atitle=Cement+%E2%80%93+Analysis&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.iea.org%2Freports%2Fcement&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ACarbon+budget" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-Climate_change_mitigation_UNEP-2022-55"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Climate_change_mitigation_UNEP-2022_55-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">United Nations Environment Programme (2022). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2022">Emissions Gap Report 2022: The Closing Window — Climate crisis calls for rapid transformation of societies</a>. Nairobi.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-56"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-56">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/CCPI%202023.pdf">"Climate Change Performance Index"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. November 2022<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">16 November</span> 2022</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Climate+Change+Performance+Index&rft.date=2022-11&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in%2Ffiles%2Ffile%2FCCPI%25202023.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ACarbon+budget" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Carbon_budget&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/">Global Carbon Project</a></li> <li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://constrain-eu.org/">The CONSTRAIN Project</a> - 4-year 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style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change" title="Climate change">Climate change</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible expanded navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Overview" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Overview</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes of climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects of climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Climate change adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Causes" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Causes_of_climate_change" title="Causes of climate change">Causes</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Overview</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_system" title="Climate system">Climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">Greenhouse effect</a> (<a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere" title="Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere">Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change" title="Scientific consensus on climate change">Scientific consensus on climate change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Sources</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Deforestation_and_climate_change" title="Deforestation and climate change">Deforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuel</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">Greenhouse gas emissions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_accounting" title="Carbon accounting">Carbon accounting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_footprint" title="Carbon footprint">Carbon footprint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_leakage" title="Carbon leakage">Carbon leakage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture">from agriculture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_wetlands" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands">from wetlands</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption" title="World energy supply and consumption">World energy supply and consumption</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="History" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">History</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_policy_and_politics" title="History of climate change policy and politics">History of climate change policy and politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science" title="History of climate change science">History of climate change science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/James_Hansen" title="James Hansen">James Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling" title="Charles David Keeling">Charles David Keeling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Climate_Change_conference" class="mw-redirect" title="United Nations Climate Change conference">United Nations Climate Change conferences</a></li> <li>Years in climate change <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2019_in_climate_change" title="2019 in climate change">2019</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2020_in_climate_change" title="2020 in climate change">2020</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2021_in_climate_change" title="2021 in climate change">2021</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2022_in_climate_change" title="2022 in climate change">2022</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2023_in_climate_change" title="2023 in climate change">2023</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2024_in_climate_change" title="2024 in climate change">2024</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Effects_and_issues" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects and issues</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Physical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change" title="Abrupt climate change">Abrupt climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions" title="Arctic methane emissions">Arctic methane emissions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" title="Atlantic meridional overturning circulation">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">Drought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">Extreme weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Flood</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coastal_flooding" title="Coastal flooding">Coastal flooding</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">Heat wave</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Marine_heatwave" title="Marine heatwave">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_oceans" title="Effects of climate change on oceans">Oceans</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_deoxygenation" title="Ocean deoxygenation">deoxygenation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">heat content</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_stratification" title="Ocean stratification">stratification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">temperature</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost#Impacts_of_climate_change" title="Permafrost">Permafrost thaw</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">Retreat of glaciers since 1850</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Season_creep" title="Season creep">Season creep</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change" title="Tropical cyclones and climate change">Tropical cyclones</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_the_water_cycle" title="Effects of climate change on the water cycle">Water cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_wildfires" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and wildfires">Wildfires</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Flora and fauna</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_biomes" title="Effects of climate change on biomes">Biomes</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_birds" title="Climate change and birds">Birds</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_dieback" title="Forest dieback">Forest dieback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_invasive_species" title="Climate change and invasive species">Invasive species</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life#Climate_change" title="Human impact on marine life">Marine life</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_plant_biodiversity" title="Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity">Plant biodiversity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Social and economic</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture" title="Effects of climate change on agriculture">Agriculture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_livestock" title="Effects of climate change on livestock">Livestock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and agriculture in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_children" title="Climate change and children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_cities" title="Climate change and cities">Cities</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse" title="Climate change and civilizational collapse">Civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_crime" title="Climate change and crime">Crime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_areas_depopulated_due_to_climate_change" title="List of areas depopulated due to climate change">Depopulation of settlements</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_landmarks_destroyed_or_damaged_by_climate_change" title="List of landmarks destroyed or damaged by climate change">Destruction of cultural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disability_and_climate_change" title="Disability and climate change">Disability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economic impacts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_insurance_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and insurance in the United States">U.S. insurance industry</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">Fisheries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_gender" title="Climate change and gender">Gender</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health" title="Effects of climate change on human health">Health</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_mental_health" title="Effects of climate change on mental health">Mental health</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_rights_and_climate_change" title="Human rights and climate change">Human rights</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_Indigenous_peoples" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and Indigenous peoples">Indigenous peoples</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_infectious_diseases" title="Climate change and infectious diseases">Infectious diseases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_migration" title="Climate migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_poverty" title="Climate change and poverty">Poverty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impacts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_security" title="Climate security">Security and conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_flooding" title="Urban flooding">Urban flooding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Water security</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa" title="Climate change in Africa">Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Americas" title="Climate change in the Americas">Americas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Antarctica" title="Climate change in Antarctica">Antarctica</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Asia" title="Climate change in Asia">Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia" title="Climate change in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Caribbean" title="Climate change in the Caribbean">Caribbean</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Europe" title="Climate change in Europe">Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa" title="Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa">Middle East and North Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_small_island_countries" title="Effects of climate change on small island countries">Small island countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Climate_change_by_country" title="Category:Climate change by country">by individual country</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Mitigation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Mitigation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economics and finance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Carbon budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">Carbon emission trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits" title="Carbon offsets and credits">Carbon offsets and credits</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gold_Standard_(carbon_offset_standard)" title="Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)">Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon price</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">Carbon tax</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_debt" title="Climate debt">Climate debt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_finance" title="Climate finance">Climate finance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk_insurance" title="Climate risk insurance">Climate risk insurance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Co-benefits_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Co-benefits of climate change mitigation">Co-benefits of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation" title="Economics of climate change mitigation">Economics of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment" title="Fossil fuel divestment">Fossil fuel divestment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund" title="Green Climate Fund">Green Climate Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_economy" title="Low-carbon economy">Low-carbon economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">Net zero emissions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Energy</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_transition" title="Energy transition">Energy transition</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">Fossil fuel phase-out</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">Renewable energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">Sustainable energy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Preserving and enhancing<br /> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">carbon sinks</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blue_carbon" title="Blue carbon">Blue carbon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">Carbon dioxide removal</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">Carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Direct_air_capture" title="Direct air capture">Direct air capture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_farming" title="Carbon farming">Carbon farming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate-smart_agriculture" title="Climate-smart agriculture">Climate-smart agriculture</a></li> <li>Forest management <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">afforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration#Forestry" title="Carbon sequestration">forestry for carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/REDD_and_REDD%2B" title="REDD and REDD+">REDD and REDD+</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use,_land-use_change,_and_forestry" title="Land use, land-use change, and forestry">Land use, land-use change, and forestry</a> (LULUCF and AFOLU)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Personal</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Individual_action_on_climate_change" title="Individual action on climate change">Individual action on climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">Plant-based diet</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Society_and_adaptation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Society and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Society</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Business_action_on_climate_change" title="Business action on climate change">Business action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_action" title="Climate action">Climate action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration" title="Climate emergency declaration">Climate emergency declaration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_movement" title="Climate movement">Climate movement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/School_Strike_for_Climate" class="mw-redirect" title="School Strike for Climate">School Strike for Climate</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">Denial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_grief" title="Ecological grief">Ecological grief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_governance" title="Climate governance">Governance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_justice" title="Climate justice">Justice</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_litigation" title="Climate change litigation">Litigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Public opinion on climate change">Public opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Women_in_climate_change" title="Women in climate change">Women</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Adaptation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation_strategies_on_the_German_coast" title="Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast">Adaptation strategies on the German coast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_capacity" title="Adaptive capacity">Adaptive capacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_risk_reduction" title="Disaster risk reduction">Disaster risk reduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem-based_adaptation" title="Ecosystem-based adaptation">Ecosystem-based adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Flood control">Flood control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loss_and_damage_(climate_change)" title="Loss and damage (climate change)">Loss and damage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_retreat" title="Managed retreat">Managed retreat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_resilience" title="Climate resilience">Resilience</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk" title="Climate risk">Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_vulnerability" title="Climate change vulnerability">Vulnerability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Adaptation_Fund" title="The Adaptation Fund">The Adaptation Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action" title="National Adaptation Programme of Action">National Adaptation Programme of Action</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_communication" title="Climate communication">Communication</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_Change_Performance_Index" title="Climate Change Performance Index">Climate Change Performance Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_crisis" title="Climate crisis">Climate crisis (term)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">Climate spiral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_education" title="Climate change education">Education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Popular culture depictions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_art" title="Climate change art">art</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_climate_change_video_games" class="mw-redirect" title="List of climate change video games">video games</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">International agreements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Glasgow_Climate_Pact" title="Glasgow Climate Pact">Glasgow Climate Pact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cooperative_Mechanisms_under_Article_6_of_the_Paris_Agreement" title="Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement">Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contributions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goal_13" title="Sustainable Development Goal 13">Sustainable Development Goal 13</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Background_and_theory" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Background and theory</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Measurements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">Global surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_carbon_cycle" title="Atmospheric carbon cycle">atmospheric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_pump" title="Biological pump">biologic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oceanic_carbon_cycle" title="Oceanic carbon cycle">oceanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle" title="Permafrost carbon cycle">permafrost</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">Carbon sink</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_feedback" title="Cloud feedback">Cloud feedback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_forcing" class="mw-redirect" title="Cloud forcing">Cloud forcing</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fixed_anvil_temperature_hypothesis" title="Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cryosphere" title="Cryosphere">Cryosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_event_attribution" title="Extreme event attribution">Extreme event attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedbacks" title="Climate change feedbacks">Feedbacks</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_warming_potential" title="Global warming potential">Global warming potential</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illustrative_model_of_greenhouse_effect_on_climate_change" title="Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change">Illustrative model of greenhouse effect on climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Orbital_forcing" title="Orbital forcing">Orbital forcing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">Radiative forcing</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Research and modelling</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_scenario" title="Climate change scenario">Climate change scenario</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_model" title="Climate model">Climate model</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Coupled_Model_Intercomparison_Project" title="Coupled Model Intercomparison Project">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change" title="Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report" title="IPCC Sixth Assessment Report">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paleoclimatology" title="Paleoclimatology">Paleoclimatology</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway" title="Representative Concentration Pathway">Representative Concentration Pathway</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Shared_Socioeconomic_Pathways" title="Shared Socioeconomic Pathways">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li><b><span class="nowrap"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="icon" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/16px-Climate_change_icon.png" decoding="async" width="16" height="15" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/Climate_change_icon.png/24px-Climate_change_icon.png 1.5x, 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