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<span>Amplification</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Amplification-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Amplification subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Amplification-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Amplifying_mechanisms" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Amplifying_mechanisms"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.1</span> <span>Amplifying mechanisms</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Amplifying_mechanisms-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Ocean_circulation" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Ocean_circulation"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.2</span> <span>Ocean circulation</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Ocean_circulation-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Amplification_factor" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Amplification_factor"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.3</span> <span>Amplification factor</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Amplification_factor-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Amplification_phase" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Amplification_phase"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">2.4</span> <span>Amplification phase</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Amplification_phase-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Paleoclimate_polar_amplification" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Paleoclimate_polar_amplification"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>Paleoclimate polar amplification</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Paleoclimate_polar_amplification-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-Recent_Arctic_amplification" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Recent_Arctic_amplification"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>Recent Arctic amplification</span> </div> </a> <button aria-controls="toc-Recent_Arctic_amplification-sublist" class="cdx-button cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--icon-only vector-toc-toggle"> <span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-expand"></span> <span>Toggle Recent Arctic amplification subsection</span> </button> <ul id="toc-Recent_Arctic_amplification-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> <li id="toc-Possible_impacts_on_mid-latitude_weather" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-2"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#Possible_impacts_on_mid-latitude_weather"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4.1</span> <span>Possible impacts on mid-latitude weather</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-Possible_impacts_on_mid-latitude_weather-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-See_also" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">5</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">6</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-External_links" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" 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href="https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pol%C3%A1rn%C3%AD_zes%C3%ADlen%C3%AD" title="Polární zesílení – Czech" lang="cs" hreflang="cs" data-title="Polární zesílení" data-language-autonym="Čeština" data-language-local-name="Czech" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Čeština</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polare_Verst%C3%A4rkung" title="Polare Verstärkung – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Polare Verstärkung" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amplification_polaire" title="Amplification polaire – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Amplification polaire" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li 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href="/wiki/File:GISS_temperature_2000-09.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/GISS_temperature_2000-09.png/300px-GISS_temperature_2000-09.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="174" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/GISS_temperature_2000-09.png/450px-GISS_temperature_2000-09.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/GISS_temperature_2000-09.png/600px-GISS_temperature_2000-09.png 2x" data-file-width="1078" data-file-height="626" /></a><figcaption>NASA GISS temperature trend 2000–2009, showing strong arctic amplification</figcaption></figure> <p><b>Polar amplification</b> is the phenomenon that any change in the net radiation balance (for example greenhouse intensification) tends to produce a larger change in temperature near the poles than in the planetary average.<sup id="cite_ref-Polar_amplification_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Polar_amplification-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This is commonly referred to as the ratio of polar warming to tropical warming. On a planet with an atmosphere that can restrict emission of longwave radiation to space (a <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_effect" title="Greenhouse effect">greenhouse effect</a>), surface temperatures will be warmer than a simple <a href="/wiki/Planetary_equilibrium_temperature" title="Planetary equilibrium temperature">planetary equilibrium temperature</a> calculation would predict. Where the atmosphere or an extensive ocean is able to transport heat polewards, the poles will be warmer and equatorial regions cooler than their local net radiation balances would predict.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The poles will experience the most cooling when the global-mean temperature is lower relative to a reference climate; alternatively, the poles will experience the greatest warming when the global-mean temperature is higher.<sup id="cite_ref-Polar_amplification_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Polar_amplification-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In the extreme, the planet <a href="/wiki/Venus" title="Venus">Venus</a> is thought to have experienced a very large increase in greenhouse effect over its lifetime,<sup id="cite_ref-Kasting_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Kasting-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> so much so that its poles have warmed sufficiently to render its surface temperature effectively <a href="/wiki/Isothermal" class="mw-redirect" title="Isothermal">isothermal</a> (no difference between poles and equator).<sup id="cite_ref-nssdc_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-nssdc-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> On <a href="/wiki/Earth" title="Earth">Earth</a>, water vapor and trace gasses provide a lesser greenhouse effect, and the atmosphere and extensive oceans provide efficient poleward heat transport. Both <a href="/wiki/Palaeoclimate" class="mw-redirect" title="Palaeoclimate">palaeoclimate</a> changes and recent <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global warming</a> changes have exhibited strong polar amplification, as described below. </p><p><b>Arctic amplification</b> is polar amplification of the <a href="/wiki/North_Pole" title="North Pole">Earth's North Pole</a> only; <b>Antarctic amplification</b> is that of the <a href="/wiki/South_Pole" title="South Pole">South Pole</a>. </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="History">History</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: History"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>An observation-based study related to Arctic amplification was published in 1969 by <a href="/wiki/Mikhail_Budyko" title="Mikhail Budyko">Mikhail Budyko</a>,<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and the study conclusion has been summarized as "Sea ice loss affects Arctic temperatures through the surface albedo feedback."<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The same year, a similar model was published by <a href="/wiki/William_D._Sellers" title="William D. Sellers">William D. Sellers</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Both studies attracted significant attention since they hinted at the possibility for a runaway positive feedback within the global climate system.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 1975, Manabe and Wetherald published the first somewhat plausible general circulation model that looked at the effects of an increase of <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">greenhouse gas</a>. Although confined to less than one-third of the globe, with a "swamp" ocean and only land surface at high latitudes, it showed an Arctic warming faster than the tropics (as have all subsequent models).<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Amplification">Amplification</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Amplification"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Amplifying_mechanisms">Amplifying mechanisms</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Amplifying mechanisms"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback" title="Ice–albedo feedback">Feedbacks associated with sea ice and snow cover</a> are widely cited as one of the principal causes of terrestrial polar amplification.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_2013_13-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_2013-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These feedbacks are particularly noted in local polar amplification,<sup id="cite_ref-:3_15-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> although recent work has shown that the <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedback#Lapse_rate" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change feedback">lapse rate feedback</a> is likely equally important to the ice-albedo feedback for Arctic amplification.<sup id="cite_ref-Goosse2018_16-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Goosse2018-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Supporting this idea, large-scale amplification is also observed in model worlds with no ice or snow.<sup id="cite_ref-Alexeev_17-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Alexeev-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It appears to arise both from a (possibly transient) intensification of poleward heat transport and more directly from changes in the local net radiation balance.<sup id="cite_ref-Alexeev_17-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Alexeev-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Local radiation balance is crucial because an overall decrease in <a href="/wiki/Outgoing_longwave_radiation" title="Outgoing longwave radiation">outgoing longwave radiation</a> will produce a larger relative increase in net radiation near the poles than near the equator.<sup id="cite_ref-Goosse2018_16-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Goosse2018-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Thus, between the lapse rate feedback and changes in the local radiation balance, much of polar amplification can be attributed to changes in outgoing longwave radiation.<sup id="cite_ref-:3_15-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:3-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This is especially true for the Arctic, whereas the elevated terrain in Antarctica limits the influence of the lapse rate feedback.<sup id="cite_ref-Goosse2018_16-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Goosse2018-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Some examples of <a href="/wiki/Climate_feedback" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate feedback">climate system feedbacks</a> thought to contribute to recent polar amplification include the reduction of snow cover and <a href="/wiki/Sea_ice" title="Sea ice">sea ice</a>, changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation, the presence of anthropogenic soot in the <a href="/wiki/Arctic" title="Arctic">Arctic</a> environment, and increases in cloud cover and water vapor.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_2013_13-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_2013-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> CO<sub>2</sub> forcing has also been attributed to polar amplification.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Most studies connect <a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">sea ice changes</a> to polar amplification.<sup id="cite_ref-IPCC_2013_13-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-IPCC_2013-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Both ice extent and thickness impact polar amplification. Climate models with smaller baseline sea ice extent and thinner sea ice coverage exhibit stronger polar amplification.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_21-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Some models of modern climate exhibit Arctic amplification without changes in snow and ice cover.<sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The individual processes contributing to polar warming are critical to understanding <a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">climate sensitivity</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Polar warming also affects many ecosystems, including marine and terrestrial ecosystems, climate systems, and human populations.<sup id="cite_ref-:2_20-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:2-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Polar amplification is largely driven by local polar processes with hardly any remote forcing, whereas polar warming is regulated by tropical and midlatitude forcing.<sup id="cite_ref-24" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> These impacts of polar amplification have led to continuous research in the face of global warming. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Ocean_circulation">Ocean circulation</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Ocean circulation"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>It has been estimated that 70% of global wind energy is transferred to the ocean and takes place within the <a href="/wiki/Antarctic_Circumpolar_Current" title="Antarctic Circumpolar Current">Antarctic Circumpolar Current</a> (ACC).<sup id="cite_ref-:0_25-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Eventually, <a href="/wiki/Upwelling" title="Upwelling">upwelling</a> due to wind-stress transports cold Antarctic waters through the Atlantic <a href="/wiki/Surface_current" class="mw-redirect" title="Surface current">surface current</a>, while warming them over the equator, and into the Arctic environment. This is especially noticed in high latitudes.<sup id="cite_ref-:1_21-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:1-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Thus, warming in the Arctic depends on the efficiency of the global ocean transport and plays a role in the polar see-saw effect.<sup id="cite_ref-:0_25-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Decreased oxygen and low-pH during <a href="/wiki/ENSO" class="mw-redirect" title="ENSO">La Niña</a> are processes that correlate with decreased primary production and a more pronounced poleward flow of ocean currents.<sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It has been proposed that the mechanism of increased Arctic surface air temperature anomalies during La Niña periods of ENSO may be attributed to the Tropically Excited Arctic Warming Mechanism (TEAM), when <a href="/wiki/Rossby_wave" title="Rossby wave">Rossby waves</a> propagate more poleward, leading to wave dynamics and an increase in downward infrared radiation.<sup id="cite_ref-Polar_amplification_1-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Polar_amplification-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Amplification_factor">Amplification factor</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: Amplification factor"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Polar amplification is quantified in terms of a <b>polar amplification factor</b>, generally defined as the ratio of some change in a polar temperature to a corresponding change in a broader average temperature: </p> <dl><dd><span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle {PAF}={\Delta {T}_{p} \over \Delta {\overline {T}}}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>P</mi> <mi>A</mi> <mi>F</mi> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mfrac> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>T</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mover> <mi>T</mi> <mo accent="false">¯</mo> </mover> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> </mrow> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle {PAF}={\Delta {T}_{p} \over \Delta {\overline {T}}}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/6fdb6b59b845422af239a772eab61345250cfe4b" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -2.671ex; width:13.517ex; height:6.509ex;" alt="{\displaystyle {PAF}={\Delta {T}_{p} \over \Delta {\overline {T}}}}"></span><span class="nowrap"> </span><span class="nowrap"> </span>,</dd></dl> <p>where <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Delta {T}_{p}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <msub> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>T</mi> </mrow> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mi>p</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Delta {T}_{p}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/f336c68ca4ad602f5c15ce681336d2417616ea86" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -1.005ex; width:4.353ex; height:2.843ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Delta {T}_{p}}"></span> is a change in polar temperature and <span class="mwe-math-element"><span class="mwe-math-mathml-inline mwe-math-mathml-a11y" style="display: none;"><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="{\displaystyle \Delta {\overline {T}}}"> <semantics> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mstyle displaystyle="true" scriptlevel="0"> <mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mi> <mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mover> <mi>T</mi> <mo accent="false">¯</mo> </mover> </mrow> </mstyle> </mrow> <annotation encoding="application/x-tex">{\displaystyle \Delta {\overline {T}}}</annotation> </semantics> </math></span><img src="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/media/math/render/svg/1350f721e3d854e44cccf44999fd4f9e21d841a6" class="mwe-math-fallback-image-inline mw-invert skin-invert" aria-hidden="true" style="vertical-align: -0.338ex; width:3.868ex; height:3.009ex;" alt="{\displaystyle \Delta {\overline {T}}}"></span><span class="nowrap"> </span><span class="nowrap"> </span> is, for example, a corresponding change in a global mean temperature. </p><p>Common implementations<sup id="cite_ref-28" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Hansen_29-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Hansen-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> define the temperature changes directly as the <a href="/wiki/Temperature_anomaly#Absolute_temperatures_v._anomalies" title="Temperature anomaly">anomalies</a> in <a href="/wiki/Surface_air_temperature" class="mw-redirect" title="Surface air temperature">surface air temperature</a> relative to a recent reference interval (typically 30 years). Others have used the ratio of the variances of surface air temperature over an extended interval.<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Amplification_phase">Amplification phase</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Amplification phase"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:AntarcticaTemps3_1957-2006.png" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/AntarcticaTemps3_1957-2006.png/220px-AntarcticaTemps3_1957-2006.png" decoding="async" width="220" height="167" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/AntarcticaTemps3_1957-2006.png/330px-AntarcticaTemps3_1957-2006.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/AntarcticaTemps3_1957-2006.png/440px-AntarcticaTemps3_1957-2006.png 2x" data-file-width="863" data-file-height="656" /></a><figcaption>Temperature trends in <a href="/wiki/West_Antarctica" title="West Antarctica">West Antarctica</a> (left) have greatly exceeded the global average; <a href="/wiki/East_Antarctica" title="East Antarctica">East Antarctica</a> less so.</figcaption></figure> <p>It is observed that Arctic and Antarctic warming commonly proceed out of phase because of <a href="/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles" title="Milankovitch cycles">orbital forcing</a>, resulting in the so-called <a href="/wiki/Polar_see-saw" title="Polar see-saw">polar see-saw</a> effect.<sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Paleoclimate_polar_amplification">Paleoclimate polar amplification</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Paleoclimate polar amplification"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The glacial / <a href="/wiki/Interglacial" title="Interglacial">interglacial</a> cycles of the <a href="/wiki/Pleistocene" title="Pleistocene">Pleistocene</a> provide extensive <a href="/wiki/Palaeoclimate" class="mw-redirect" title="Palaeoclimate">palaeoclimate</a> evidence of polar amplification, both from the Arctic and the Antarctic.<sup id="cite_ref-Hansen_29-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Hansen-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In particular, the temperature rise since the <a href="/wiki/Last_glacial_maximum" class="mw-redirect" title="Last glacial maximum">last glacial maximum</a> 20,000 years ago provides a clear picture. Proxy temperature records from the Arctic (<a href="/wiki/Greenland" title="Greenland">Greenland</a>) and from the Antarctic indicate polar amplification factors on the order of 2.0.<sup id="cite_ref-Hansen_29-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Hansen-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Recent_Arctic_amplification">Recent Arctic amplification</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Recent Arctic amplification"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Climate change in the Arctic</a></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:NORTH_POLE_Ice_(19626661335).jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/64/NORTH_POLE_Ice_%2819626661335%29.jpg/220px-NORTH_POLE_Ice_%2819626661335%29.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="147" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/64/NORTH_POLE_Ice_%2819626661335%29.jpg/330px-NORTH_POLE_Ice_%2819626661335%29.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/64/NORTH_POLE_Ice_%2819626661335%29.jpg/440px-NORTH_POLE_Ice_%2819626661335%29.jpg 2x" data-file-width="7360" data-file-height="4912" /></a><figcaption>The dark ocean surface reflects only 6 percent of incoming solar radiation, while sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent.<sup id="cite_ref-32" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-32"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>32<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></figcaption></figure> <p>Suggested mechanisms leading to the observed Arctic amplification include <a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a> (<a href="/wiki/Ice%E2%80%93albedo_feedback" title="Ice–albedo feedback">open water reflects less sunlight than sea ice</a>), atmospheric heat transport from the equator to the Arctic,<sup id="cite_ref-33" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-33"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>33<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and the <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_feedback#Lapse_rate" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change feedback">lapse rate feedback</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Goosse2018_16-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Goosse2018-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The Arctic was historically described as warming twice as fast as the global average,<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-34"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>34<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> but this estimate was based on older observations which missed the more recent acceleration. By 2021, enough data was available to show that the Arctic had warmed three times as fast as the globe - 3.1°C between 1971 and 2019, as opposed to the global warming of 1°C over the same period.<sup id="cite_ref-3X2021_35-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3X2021-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Moreover, this estimate defines the Arctic as everything above <a href="/wiki/60th_parallel_north" title="60th parallel north">60th parallel north</a>, or a full third of the Northern Hemisphere: in 2021–2022, it was found that since 1979, the warming within the <a href="/wiki/Arctic_Circle" title="Arctic Circle">Arctic Circle</a> itself (above the 66th parallel) has been nearly four times faster than the global average.<sup id="cite_ref-Rantanen2022_36-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Rantanen2022-36"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>36<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4X2021_37-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4X2021-37"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>37<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Within the Arctic Circle itself, even greater Arctic amplification occurs in the <a href="/wiki/Barents_Sea" title="Barents Sea">Barents Sea</a> area, with hotspots around <a href="/wiki/West_Spitsbergen_Current" title="West Spitsbergen Current">West Spitsbergen Current</a>: weather stations located on its path record decadal warming up to seven times faster than the global average.<sup id="cite_ref-Isaksen2022_38-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Isaksen2022-38"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>38<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Carrington22_39-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Carrington22-39"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>39<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This has fuelled concerns that unlike the rest of the Arctic sea ice, ice cover in the Barents Sea may permanently disappear even around 1.5 degrees of global warming.<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-40"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>40<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-41"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>41<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>The acceleration of Arctic amplification has not been linear: a 2022 analysis found that it occurred in two sharp steps, with the former around 1986, and the latter after 2000.<sup id="cite_ref-Chylek2022_42-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Chylek2022-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The first acceleration is attributed to the increase in anthropogenic <a href="/wiki/Radiative_forcing" title="Radiative forcing">radiative forcing</a> in the region, which is in turn likely connected to the reductions in <a href="/wiki/Stratospheric_sulfur_aerosols" class="mw-redirect" title="Stratospheric sulfur aerosols">stratospheric sulfur aerosols</a> pollution in Europe in the 1980s in order to combat <a href="/wiki/Acid_rain" title="Acid rain">acid rain</a>. Since sulphate aerosols have a cooling effect, their absence is likely to have increased Arctic temperatures by up to 0.5 degrees Celsius.<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-43"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>43<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-44" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-44"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>44<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The second acceleration has no known cause,<sup id="cite_ref-3X2021_35-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3X2021-35"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>35<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> which is why it did not show up in any climate models. It is likely to be an example of multi-decadal natural variability, like the suggested link between Arctic temperatures and <a href="/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation" title="Atlantic multidecadal oscillation">Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation</a> (AMO),<sup id="cite_ref-45" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-45"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>45<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> in which case it can be expected to reverse in the future. However, even the first increase in Arctic amplification was only accurately simulated by a fraction of the current <a href="/wiki/CMIP6" class="mw-redirect" title="CMIP6">CMIP6</a> models.<sup id="cite_ref-Chylek2022_42-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Chylek2022-42"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>42<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Possible_impacts_on_mid-latitude_weather">Possible impacts on mid-latitude weather</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Possible impacts on mid-latitude weather"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">See also: <a href="/wiki/Rossby_wave#Amplification_of_Rossby_waves" title="Rossby wave">Rossby wave § Amplification of Rossby waves</a></div> <div class="excerpt-block"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1066933788">.mw-parser-output .excerpt-hat .mw-editsection-like{font-style:normal}</style><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable dablink excerpt-hat selfref">This section is an excerpt from <a href="/wiki/Jet_stream#Longer-term_climatic_changes" title="Jet stream">Jet stream § Longer-term climatic changes</a>.<span class="mw-editsection-like plainlinks"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a class="external text" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Jet_stream&action=edit#Longer-term_climatic_changes">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div><div class="excerpt"> <p>Since the early 2000s, climate models have consistently identified that global warming will gradually push jet streams poleward. In 2008, this was confirmed by observational evidence, which proved that from 1979 to 2001, the northern jet stream moved northward at an average rate of 2.01 kilometres (1.25 mi) per year, with a similar trend in the <a href="/wiki/Southern_Hemisphere" title="Southern Hemisphere">Southern Hemisphere</a> jet stream.<sup id="cite_ref-46" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-46"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>46<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-47" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-47"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>47<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Climate scientists have hypothesized that the jet stream will also gradually weaken as a result of <a href="/wiki/Global_warming" class="mw-redirect" title="Global warming">global warming</a>. Trends such as <a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a>, reduced snow cover, <a href="/wiki/Evapotranspiration" title="Evapotranspiration">evapotranspiration</a> patterns, and other weather anomalies have caused the Arctic to heat up faster than other parts of the globe, in what is known as the Arctic amplification. In 2021–2022, it was found that since 1979, the warming within the <a href="/wiki/Arctic_Circle" title="Arctic Circle">Arctic Circle</a> has been nearly four times faster than the global average,<sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_Rantanen2022_48-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_Rantanen2022-48"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>48<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_4X2021_49-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_4X2021-49"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>49<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and some hotspots in the <a href="/wiki/Barents_Sea" title="Barents Sea">Barents Sea</a> area warmed up to seven times faster than the global average.<sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_Isaksen2022_50-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_Isaksen2022-50"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>50<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_Carrington22_51-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_Carrington22-51"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>51<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> While the Arctic remains one of the coldest places on Earth today, the temperature gradient between it and the warmer parts of the globe will continue to diminish with every decade of global warming as the result of this amplification. If this gradient has a strong influence on the jet stream, then it will eventually become weaker and more variable in its course, which would allow more cold air from the <a href="/wiki/Polar_vortex" title="Polar vortex">polar vortex</a> to leak <a href="/wiki/Mid-latitudes" class="mw-redirect" title="Mid-latitudes">mid-latitudes</a> and slow the progression of <a href="/wiki/Rossby_wave" title="Rossby wave">Rossby waves</a>, leading to more persistent and more <a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">extreme weather</a>. </p><p>The hypothesis above is closely associated with <a href="/wiki/Jennifer_Francis" title="Jennifer Francis">Jennifer Francis</a>, who had first proposed it in a 2012 paper co-authored by Stephen J. Vavrus.<sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_Francis_2012_52-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_Francis_2012-52"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>52<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> While some paleoclimate reconstructions have suggested that the polar vortex becomes more variable and causes more unstable weather during periods of warming back in 1997,<sup id="cite_ref-53" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-53"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>53<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> this was contradicted by climate modelling, with PMIP2 simulations finding in 2010 that the <a href="/wiki/Arctic_oscillation" title="Arctic oscillation">Arctic oscillation</a> was much weaker and more negative during the <a href="/wiki/Last_Glacial_Maximum" title="Last Glacial Maximum">Last Glacial Maximum</a>, and suggesting that warmer periods have stronger positive phase AO, and thus less frequent leaks of the polar vortex air.<sup id="cite_ref-54" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-54"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>54<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> However, a 2012 review in the <i><a href="/wiki/Journal_of_the_Atmospheric_Sciences" title="Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences">Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences</a></i> noted that "there [has been] a significant change in the vortex mean state over the twenty-first century, resulting in a weaker, more disturbed vortex.",<sup id="cite_ref-55" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-55"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>55<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> which contradicted the modelling results but fit the Francis-Vavrus hypothesis. Additionally, a 2013 study noted that the then-current <a href="/wiki/CMIP5" class="mw-redirect" title="CMIP5">CMIP5</a> tended to strongly underestimate winter blocking trends,<sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_Masato_2013_56-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_Masato_2013-56"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>56<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and other 2012 research had suggested a connection between declining Arctic sea ice and heavy snowfall during midlatitude winters.<sup id="cite_ref-57" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-57"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>57<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 2013, further research from Francis connected reductions in the Arctic sea ice to extreme summer weather in the northern mid-latitudes,<sup id="cite_ref-58" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-58"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>58<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> while other research from that year identified potential linkages between Arctic sea ice trends and more extreme rainfall in the European summer.<sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_Screen_2013_59-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_Screen_2013-59"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>59<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> At the time, it was also suggested that this connection between Arctic amplification and jet stream patterns was involved in the formation of <a href="/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy" title="Hurricane Sandy">Hurricane Sandy</a><sup id="cite_ref-60" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-60"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>60<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and played a role in the <a href="/wiki/Early_2014_North_American_cold_wave" class="mw-redirect" title="Early 2014 North American cold wave">Early 2014 North American cold wave</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_Time_61-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_Time-61"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>61<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Jet_stream_CSMonitor_62-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Jet_stream_CSMonitor-62"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>62<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2015, Francis' next study concluded that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently in the past two decades. Hence, continued heat-trapping emissions favour increased formation of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.<sup id="cite_ref-63" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-63"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>63<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Studies published in 2017 and 2018 identified stalling patterns of Rossby waves in the northern hemisphere jet stream as the culprit behind other almost stationary extreme weather events, such as the <a href="/wiki/2018_European_drought_and_heat_waves" class="mw-redirect" title="2018 European drought and heat waves">2018 European heatwave</a>, the <a href="/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave" class="mw-redirect" title="2003 European heat wave">2003 European heat wave</a>, <a href="/wiki/2010_Russian_wildfires" title="2010 Russian wildfires">2010 Russian heat wave</a> or the <a href="/wiki/2010_Pakistan_floods" title="2010 Pakistan floods">2010 Pakistan floods</a>, and suggested that these patterns were all connected to Arctic amplification.<sup id="cite_ref-64" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-64"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>64<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-65" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-65"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>65<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Further work from Francis and Vavrus that year suggested that amplified Arctic warming is observed as stronger in lower atmospheric areas because the expanding process of warmer air increases pressure levels which decreases poleward geopotential height gradients. As these gradients are the reason that cause west to east winds through the thermal wind relationship, declining speeds are usually found south of the areas with geopotential increases.<sup id="cite_ref-66" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-66"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>66<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2017, Francis explained her findings to the <i><a href="/wiki/Scientific_American" title="Scientific American">Scientific American</a></i>: "A lot more water vapor is being transported northward by big swings in the jet stream. That's important because <a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#Role_of_water_vapor" title="Greenhouse gas">water vapor is a greenhouse gas</a> just like carbon dioxide and methane. It traps heat in the atmosphere. That vapor also condenses as droplets we know as clouds, which themselves trap more heat. The vapor is a big part of the amplification story—a big reason the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else."<sup id="cite_ref-67" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-67"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>67<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In a 2017 study conducted by climatologist Judah Cohen and several of his research associates, Cohen wrote that "[the] shift in polar vortex states can account for <i>most</i> of the recent winter cooling trends over Eurasian midlatitudes".<sup id="cite_ref-68" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-68"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>68<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A 2018 paper from Vavrus and others linked Arctic amplification to more persistent hot-dry extremes during the midlatitude summers, as well as the midlatitude winter continental cooling.<sup id="cite_ref-69" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-69"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>69<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Another 2017 paper estimated that when the Arctic experiences anomalous warming, <a href="/wiki/Primary_production" title="Primary production">primary production</a> in North America goes down by between 1% and 4% on average, with some states suffering up to 20% losses.<sup id="cite_ref-70" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-70"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>70<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A 2021 study found that a stratospheric polar vortex disruption is linked with extreme cold winter weather across parts of Asia and North America, including the <a href="/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave" title="February 2021 North American cold wave">February 2021 North American cold wave</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-71" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-71"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>71<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-72" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-72"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>72<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Another 2021 study identified a connection between the Arctic sea ice loss and the increased size of <a href="/wiki/Wildfire" title="Wildfire">wildfires</a> in the <a href="/wiki/Western_United_States" title="Western United States">Western United States</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-73" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-73"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>73<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>However, because the specific observations are considered short-term observations, there is considerable uncertainty in the conclusions. <a href="/wiki/Climatology" title="Climatology">Climatology</a> observations require several decades to definitively distinguish various forms of natural variability from climate trends.<sup id="cite_ref-74" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-74"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>74<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This point was stressed by reviews in 2013<sup id="cite_ref-75" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-75"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>75<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and in 2017.<sup id="cite_ref-76" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-76"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>76<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A study in 2014 concluded that Arctic amplification significantly decreased cold-season temperature variability over the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. Cold Arctic air intrudes into the warmer lower latitudes more rapidly today during autumn and winter, a trend projected to continue in the future except during summer, thus calling into question whether winters will bring more cold extremes.<sup id="cite_ref-77" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-77"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>77<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A 2019 analysis of a data set collected from 35 182 weather stations worldwide, including 9116 whose records go beyond 50 years, found a sharp decrease in northern midlatitude cold waves since the 1980s.<sup id="cite_ref-78" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-78"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>78<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Moreover, a range of long-term observational data collected during the 2010s and published in 2020 suggests that the intensification of Arctic amplification since the early 2010s was not linked to significant changes on mid-latitude atmospheric patterns.<sup id="cite_ref-79" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-79"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>79<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-80" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-80"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>80<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> State-of-the-art modelling research of PAMIP (Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project) improved upon the 2010 findings of PMIP2; it found that sea ice decline would weaken the jet stream and increase the probability of atmospheric blocking, but the connection was very minor, and typically insignificant next to interannual variability.<sup id="cite_ref-81" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-81"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>81<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-82" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-82"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>82<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 2022, a follow-up study found that while the PAMIP average had likely underestimated the weakening caused by sea ice decline by 1.2 to 3 times, even the corrected connection still amounts to only 10% of the jet stream's natural variability.<sup id="cite_ref-83" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-83"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>83<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> Additionally, a 2021 study found that while jet streams had indeed slowly moved polewards since 1960 as was predicted by models, they did not weaken, in spite of a small increase in waviness.<sup id="cite_ref-84" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-84"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>84<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A 2022 re-analysis of the aircraft observational data collected over 2002–2020 suggested that the North Atlantic jet stream had actually strengthened.<sup id="cite_ref-85" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-85"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>85<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Finally, a 2021 study was able to reconstruct jet stream patterns over the past 1,250 years based on Greenland <a href="/wiki/Ice_core" title="Ice core">ice cores</a>, and found that all of the recently observed changes remain within range of natural variability: the earliest likely time of divergence is in 2060, under the <a href="/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway" title="Representative Concentration Pathway">Representative Concentration Pathway</a> 8.5 which implies continually accelerating greenhouse gas emissions.<sup id="cite_ref-86" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-86"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>86<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></div></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_dipole_anomaly" title="Arctic dipole anomaly">Arctic dipole anomaly</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_oscillation" title="Arctic oscillation">Arctic oscillation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_of_the_Arctic" title="Climate of the Arctic">Climate of the Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Polar_vortex" title="Polar vortex">Polar vortex</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming" title="Sudden stratospheric warming">Sudden stratospheric warming</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output 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Williams, Paul D.; Turp, Debi; Buchanan, Piers; Coulson, Robert; Gill, Philip G.; Lunnon, Robert W.; Oztunali, Marguerite G.; Rankin, John; Rukhovets, Leonid (July 2022). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.4342">"Aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence"</a>. <i>Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society</i>. <b>148</b> (747): 2927–2941. <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022QJRMS.148.2927T">2022QJRMS.148.2927T</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2Fqj.4342">10.1002/qj.4342</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0035-9009">0035-9009</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:250029057">250029057</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Quarterly+Journal+of+the+Royal+Meteorological+Society&rft.atitle=Aircraft+observations+and+reanalysis+depictions+of+trends+in+the+North+Atlantic+winter+jet+stream+wind+speeds+and+turbulence&rft.volume=148&rft.issue=747&rft.pages=2927-2941&rft.date=2022-07&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.4342&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A250029057%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft.issn=0035-9009&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2022QJRMS.148.2927T&rft.aulast=Tenenbaum&rft.aufirst=Joel&rft.au=Williams%2C+Paul+D.&rft.au=Turp%2C+Debi&rft.au=Buchanan%2C+Piers&rft.au=Coulson%2C+Robert&rft.au=Gill%2C+Philip+G.&rft.au=Lunnon%2C+Robert+W.&rft.au=Oztunali%2C+Marguerite+G.&rft.au=Rankin%2C+John&rft.au=Rukhovets%2C+Leonid&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fonlinelibrary.wiley.com%2Fdoi%2F10.1002%2Fqj.4342&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APolar+amplification" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-86"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-86">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFOsmanCoatsDasMcConnell2021" class="citation journal cs1">Osman, Matthew B.; Coats, Sloan; Das, Sarah B.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Chellman, Nathan (13 September 2021). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8463874">"North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years"</a>. <i>PNAS</i>. <b>118</b> (38). <a href="/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Bibcode (identifier)">Bibcode</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2021PNAS..11804105O">2021PNAS..11804105O</a>. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1073%2Fpnas.2104105118">10.1073/pnas.2104105118</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMC_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMC (identifier)">PMC</a> <span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8463874">8463874</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34518222">34518222</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=PNAS&rft.atitle=North+Atlantic+jet+stream+projections+in+the+context+of+the+past+1%2C250+years&rft.volume=118&rft.issue=38&rft.date=2021-09-13&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC8463874%23id-name%3DPMC&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F34518222&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.2104105118&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2021PNAS..11804105O&rft.aulast=Osman&rft.aufirst=Matthew+B.&rft.au=Coats%2C+Sloan&rft.au=Das%2C+Sarah+B.&rft.au=McConnell%2C+Joseph+R.&rft.au=Chellman%2C+Nathan&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpmc%2Farticles%2FPMC8463874&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APolar+amplification" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Polar_amplification&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: External links"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTurton2021" class="citation web cs1">Turton, Steve (3 June 2021). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/climate-arctic-glacial-melt-rate">"Why is the Arctic warming faster than other parts of the world? Scientists explain"</a>. <i>WEForum.org</i>. World Economic Forum. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210603125701/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/climate-arctic-glacial-melt-rate/">Archived</a> from the original on 3 June 2021.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=WEForum.org&rft.atitle=Why+is+the+Arctic+warming+faster+than+other+parts+of+the+world%3F+Scientists+explain&rft.date=2021-06-03&rft.aulast=Turton&rft.aufirst=Steve&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weforum.org%2Fagenda%2F2021%2F06%2Fclimate-arctic-glacial-melt-rate&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3APolar+amplification" class="Z3988"></span></li></ul> <div class="navbox-styles"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1129693374">.mw-parser-output .hlist dl,.mw-parser-output .hlist ol,.mw-parser-output .hlist ul{margin:0;padding:0}.mw-parser-output .hlist dd,.mw-parser-output .hlist dt,.mw-parser-output .hlist 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</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Sources</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Deforestation_and_climate_change" title="Deforestation and climate change">Deforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel" title="Fossil fuel">Fossil fuel</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas" title="Greenhouse gas">Greenhouse gases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions" title="Greenhouse gas emissions">Greenhouse gas emissions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_accounting" title="Carbon accounting">Carbon accounting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_footprint" title="Carbon footprint">Carbon footprint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_leakage" title="Carbon leakage">Carbon leakage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture">from agriculture</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_wetlands" title="Greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands">from wetlands</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/World_energy_supply_and_consumption" title="World energy supply and consumption">World energy supply and consumption</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="History" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">History</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_policy_and_politics" title="History of climate change policy and politics">History of climate change policy and politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science" title="History of climate change science">History of climate change science</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" title="Svante Arrhenius">Svante Arrhenius</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/James_Hansen" title="James Hansen">James Hansen</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Charles_David_Keeling" title="Charles David Keeling">Charles David Keeling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Climate_Change_conference" class="mw-redirect" title="United Nations Climate Change conference">United Nations Climate Change conferences</a></li> <li>Years in climate change <ul><li><a href="/wiki/2019_in_climate_change" title="2019 in climate change">2019</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2020_in_climate_change" title="2020 in climate change">2020</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2021_in_climate_change" title="2021 in climate change">2021</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2022_in_climate_change" title="2022 in climate change">2022</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2023_in_climate_change" title="2023 in climate change">2023</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/2024_in_climate_change" title="2024 in climate change">2024</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Effects_and_issues" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change" title="Effects of climate change">Effects and issues</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Physical</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Abrupt_climate_change" title="Abrupt climate change">Abrupt climate change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anoxic_event" title="Anoxic event">Anoxic event</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions" title="Arctic methane emissions">Arctic methane emissions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline" title="Arctic sea ice decline">Arctic sea ice decline</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation" title="Atlantic meridional overturning circulation">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Drought" title="Drought">Drought</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extreme_weather" title="Extreme weather">Extreme weather</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood" title="Flood">Flood</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Coastal_flooding" title="Coastal flooding">Coastal flooding</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heat_wave" title="Heat wave">Heat wave</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Marine_heatwave" title="Marine heatwave">Marine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_heat_island" title="Urban heat island">Urban heat island</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_oceans" title="Effects of climate change on oceans">Oceans</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_acidification" title="Ocean acidification">acidification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_deoxygenation" title="Ocean deoxygenation">deoxygenation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_heat_content" title="Ocean heat content">heat content</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature" title="Sea surface temperature">sea surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_stratification" title="Ocean stratification">stratification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ocean_temperature" title="Ocean temperature">temperature</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ozone_depletion" title="Ozone depletion">Ozone depletion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost#Impacts_of_climate_change" title="Permafrost">Permafrost thaw</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850" title="Retreat of glaciers since 1850">Retreat of glaciers since 1850</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sea_level_rise" title="Sea level rise">Sea level rise</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Season_creep" title="Season creep">Season creep</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system" title="Tipping points in the climate system">Tipping points in the climate system</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_and_climate_change" title="Tropical cyclones and climate change">Tropical cyclones</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_the_water_cycle" title="Effects of climate change on the water cycle">Water cycle</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_wildfires" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and wildfires">Wildfires</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Flora and fauna</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_biomes" title="Effects of climate change on biomes">Biomes</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mass_mortality_event" title="Mass mortality event">Mass mortality event</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_birds" title="Climate change and birds">Birds</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extinction_risk_from_climate_change" title="Extinction risk from climate change">Extinction risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forest_dieback" title="Forest dieback">Forest dieback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_invasive_species" title="Climate change and invasive species">Invasive species</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_impact_on_marine_life#Climate_change" title="Human impact on marine life">Marine life</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_plant_biodiversity" title="Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity">Plant biodiversity</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Social and economic</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_agriculture" title="Effects of climate change on agriculture">Agriculture</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_livestock" title="Effects of climate change on livestock">Livestock</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and agriculture in the United States">United States</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_children" title="Climate change and children">Children</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_cities" title="Climate change and cities">Cities</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse" title="Climate change and civilizational collapse">Civilizational collapse</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_crime" title="Climate change and crime">Crime</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_areas_depopulated_due_to_climate_change" title="List of areas depopulated due to climate change">Depopulation of settlements</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_landmarks_destroyed_or_damaged_by_climate_change" title="List of landmarks destroyed or damaged by climate change">Destruction of cultural heritage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disability_and_climate_change" title="Disability and climate change">Disability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economic impacts</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_insurance_in_the_United_States" title="Climate change and insurance in the United States">U.S. insurance industry</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_fisheries" title="Climate change and fisheries">Fisheries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_gender" title="Climate change and gender">Gender</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health" title="Effects of climate change on human health">Health</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_mental_health" title="Effects of climate change on mental health">Mental health</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Human_rights_and_climate_change" title="Human rights and climate change">Human rights</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_Indigenous_peoples" class="mw-redirect" title="Climate change and Indigenous peoples">Indigenous peoples</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_infectious_diseases" title="Climate change and infectious diseases">Infectious diseases</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_migration" title="Climate migration">Migration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_and_poverty" title="Climate change and poverty">Poverty</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Psychological_impact_of_climate_change" title="Psychological impact of climate change">Psychological impacts</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_security" title="Climate security">Security and conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Urban_flooding" title="Urban flooding">Urban flooding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_scarcity" title="Water scarcity">Water scarcity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Water_security" title="Water security">Water security</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Template:Climate_change_regions" title="Template:Climate change regions">By country and region</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Africa" title="Climate change in Africa">Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Americas" title="Climate change in the Americas">Americas</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Antarctica" title="Climate change in Antarctica">Antarctica</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Arctic" title="Climate change in the Arctic">Arctic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Asia" title="Climate change in Asia">Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Australia" title="Climate change in Australia">Australia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Caribbean" title="Climate change in the Caribbean">Caribbean</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_Europe" title="Climate change in Europe">Europe</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa" title="Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa">Middle East and North Africa</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_small_island_countries" title="Effects of climate change on small island countries">Small island countries</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Category:Climate_change_by_country" title="Category:Climate change by country">by individual country</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Mitigation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_mitigation" title="Climate change mitigation">Mitigation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Economic_analysis_of_climate_change" title="Economic analysis of climate change">Economics and finance</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_budget" title="Carbon budget">Carbon budget</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_emission_trading" title="Carbon emission trading">Carbon emission trading</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_offsets_and_credits" title="Carbon offsets and credits">Carbon offsets and credits</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Gold_Standard_(carbon_offset_standard)" title="Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)">Gold Standard (carbon offset standard)</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_price" title="Carbon price">Carbon price</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_tax" title="Carbon tax">Carbon tax</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_debt" title="Climate debt">Climate debt</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_finance" title="Climate finance">Climate finance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk_insurance" title="Climate risk insurance">Climate risk insurance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Co-benefits_of_climate_change_mitigation" class="mw-redirect" title="Co-benefits of climate change mitigation">Co-benefits of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Economics_of_climate_change_mitigation" title="Economics of climate change mitigation">Economics of climate change mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_divestment" title="Fossil fuel divestment">Fossil fuel divestment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Green_Climate_Fund" title="Green Climate Fund">Green Climate Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Low-carbon_economy" title="Low-carbon economy">Low-carbon economy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_zero_emissions" class="mw-redirect" title="Net zero emissions">Net zero emissions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Energy</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage" title="Carbon capture and storage">Carbon capture and storage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Energy_transition" title="Energy transition">Energy transition</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fossil_fuel_phase-out" title="Fossil fuel phase-out">Fossil fuel phase-out</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nuclear_power" title="Nuclear power">Nuclear power</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Renewable_energy" title="Renewable energy">Renewable energy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_energy" title="Sustainable energy">Sustainable energy</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Preserving and enhancing<br /> <a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">carbon sinks</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Blue_carbon" title="Blue carbon">Blue carbon</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal" title="Carbon dioxide removal">Carbon dioxide removal</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" title="Carbon sequestration">Carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Direct_air_capture" title="Direct air capture">Direct air capture</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_farming" title="Carbon farming">Carbon farming</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate-smart_agriculture" title="Climate-smart agriculture">Climate-smart agriculture</a></li> <li>Forest management <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Afforestation" title="Afforestation">afforestation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sequestration#Forestry" title="Carbon sequestration">forestry for carbon sequestration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/REDD_and_REDD%2B" title="REDD and REDD+">REDD and REDD+</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reforestation" title="Reforestation">reforestation</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Land_use,_land-use_change,_and_forestry" title="Land use, land-use change, and forestry">Land use, land-use change, and forestry</a> (LULUCF and AFOLU)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Personal</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Individual_action_on_climate_change" title="Individual action on climate change">Individual action on climate change</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Plant-based_diet" title="Plant-based diet">Plant-based diet</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Society_and_adaptation" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Society and <a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">adaptation</a></div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Society</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Business_action_on_climate_change" title="Business action on climate change">Business action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_action" title="Climate action">Climate action</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_emergency_declaration" title="Climate emergency declaration">Climate emergency declaration</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_movement" title="Climate movement">Climate movement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/School_Strike_for_Climate" class="mw-redirect" title="School Strike for Climate">School Strike for Climate</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_denial" title="Climate change denial">Denial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecological_grief" title="Ecological grief">Ecological grief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_governance" title="Climate governance">Governance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_justice" title="Climate justice">Justice</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_litigation" title="Climate change litigation">Litigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Politics_of_climate_change" title="Politics of climate change">Politics</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Public_opinion_on_climate_change" title="Public opinion on climate change">Public opinion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Women_in_climate_change" title="Women in climate change">Women</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation" title="Climate change adaptation">Adaptation</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_adaptation_strategies_on_the_German_coast" title="Climate change adaptation strategies on the German coast">Adaptation strategies on the German coast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_capacity" title="Adaptive capacity">Adaptive capacity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Disaster_risk_reduction" title="Disaster risk reduction">Disaster risk reduction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ecosystem-based_adaptation" title="Ecosystem-based adaptation">Ecosystem-based adaptation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Flood_control" class="mw-redirect" title="Flood control">Flood control</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Loss_and_damage_(climate_change)" title="Loss and damage (climate change)">Loss and damage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Managed_retreat" title="Managed retreat">Managed retreat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nature-based_solutions" title="Nature-based solutions">Nature-based solutions</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_resilience" title="Climate resilience">Resilience</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_risk" title="Climate risk">Risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_vulnerability" title="Climate change vulnerability">Vulnerability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/The_Adaptation_Fund" title="The Adaptation Fund">The Adaptation Fund</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action" title="National Adaptation Programme of Action">National Adaptation Programme of Action</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em"><a href="/wiki/Climate_communication" title="Climate communication">Communication</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_Change_Performance_Index" title="Climate Change Performance Index">Climate Change Performance Index</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_crisis" title="Climate crisis">Climate crisis (term)</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_spiral" title="Climate spiral">Climate spiral</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_education" title="Climate change education">Education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_climate_change" title="Media coverage of climate change">Media coverage</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_in_popular_culture" title="Climate change in popular culture">Popular culture depictions</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Climate_change_art" title="Climate change art">art</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_fiction" title="Climate fiction">fiction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_climate_change_video_games" class="mw-redirect" title="List of climate change video games">video games</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Warming_stripes" title="Warming stripes">Warming stripes</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">International agreements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Glasgow_Climate_Pact" title="Glasgow Climate Pact">Glasgow Climate Pact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol" title="Kyoto Protocol">Kyoto Protocol</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Paris_Agreement" title="Paris Agreement">Paris Agreement</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cooperative_Mechanisms_under_Article_6_of_the_Paris_Agreement" title="Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement">Cooperative Mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Nationally_determined_contribution" title="Nationally determined contribution">Nationally determined contributions</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goal_13" title="Sustainable Development Goal 13">Sustainable Development Goal 13</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Framework_Convention_on_Climate_Change" title="United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible mw-collapsed navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><div id="Background_and_theory" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em">Background and theory</div></th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Measurements</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Global_surface_temperature" title="Global surface temperature">Global surface temperature</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record" class="mw-redirect" title="Instrumental temperature record">Instrumental temperature record</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proxy_(climate)" title="Proxy (climate)">Proxy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurement" title="Satellite temperature measurement">Satellite temperature measurement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:10.25em">Theory</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Albedo" title="Albedo">Albedo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_cycle" title="Carbon cycle">Carbon cycle</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Atmospheric_carbon_cycle" title="Atmospheric carbon cycle">atmospheric</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Biological_pump" title="Biological pump">biologic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Oceanic_carbon_cycle" title="Oceanic carbon cycle">oceanic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Permafrost_carbon_cycle" title="Permafrost carbon cycle">permafrost</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Carbon_sink" title="Carbon sink">Carbon sink</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_sensitivity" title="Climate sensitivity">Climate sensitivity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Climate_variability_and_change" title="Climate variability and change">Climate variability and change</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_feedback" title="Cloud feedback">Cloud feedback</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cloud_forcing" class="mw-redirect" title="Cloud forcing">Cloud forcing</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Fixed_anvil_temperature_hypothesis" title="Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cryosphere" title="Cryosphere">Cryosphere</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget" title="Earth's energy budget">Earth's energy budget</a></li> 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