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class="PageSubnavigation_container__yH3q7 qa-subnavigation-bar container"><div class="PageSubnavigation_outer__ocRn_"><div class="PageSubnavigation_bar__Cf50a"><a href="#overview" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Overview</a><a href="#podcast" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Podcast</a><a href="#products" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Key products</a><a href="#spotlight" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Spotlight content</a><button type="button" class="PageSubnavigation_showMore__2Z47G cta "></button><a href="#podcast" class="qa-subnavigation-cta PageSubnavigation_cta__pnmT7 cta bubble" title="">Listen to the podcast now</a></div></div><div class="PageSubnavigation_drawer__lxQUi grey " style="left:0px"><div class="container"><div class="PageSubnavigation_drawerInner__Q_bJs"><div class="PageSubnavigation_drawerItems__AwukY"><a href="#overview" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Overview</a><a href="#podcast" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Podcast</a><a href="#products" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Key products</a><a href="#spotlight" class="qa-subnavigation-anchor PageSubnavigation_item__mBuP2 cta bar " title="">Spotlight content</a></div><a href="#podcast" class="qa-subnavigation-cta PageSubnavigation_cta__pnmT7 cta bubble" title="">Listen to the podcast now</a></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="component white"><div class="component-content"><div class="container"><ul class="PageTags_meta__5q4bN sub-heading h3"><li class="PageTags_metaItem___eXos">2024年11月22日</li><li class="PageTags_metaItem___eXos">Market: Crude</li></ul></div></div></div><div class="component component-padding PageIntroduction_pageIntroduction__BoFDD white" id="overview"><div class="component-content"><div class="container"><div class="PageIntroduction_row__DH0rm row"><div class="col-12 col-lg-8"><div class="qa-pageintroduction-section"><div class="PageIntroduction_description__hOYK7"><div class="qa-pageintroduction-textfield"><p>The rise in availability of TMX volumes in Asia, specifically in China, has affected the US Gulf coast but not in the ways that had been expected. Canadian crude prices and flows into the US have not changed all that much, but the US Gulf coast medium sour markets are certainly now feeling the pinch. Mars exports to China are at an all-time low, weighing on their prices and impacting medium sours that either price against it or compete as an alternative supply into regional refineries.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="component component-padding InlineFrame_inlineFrame__i73xz indent-top white" id="podcast"><div class="component-content"><div class="container"><h2>Listen now</h2><div class="InlineFrame_description__K4can"></div><div></div></div></div></div><div class="component component-padding white"><div class="component-content"><div class="container"><div class="row"><div class="col-12 col-lg-9"><div class="qa-textpanel-description TextPanel_description__v7NGU"><p> Key topics covered in the podcast: </p> <ul> <li>Volumes of Canadian crudes coming into the US and impacts on Cushing</li> <li>Canadian heavy prices at Houston</li> <li>How medium sours are feeling the pinch from increased Chinese buying of TMX volumes</li> </ul></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="component component-padding grey"><div class="component-content"><div class="container"><div class="row"><div class="col-12 col-lg-7"><h2 class="qa-accordion-title section-heading">Transcript</h2></div></div><div><div class="qa-accordion-items Accordion_item__wwVZ1 "><button type="button" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="accordion-3f5847a8-a9a4-4e28-b3ce-49290b2a7759-panel-0" id="accordion-3f5847a8-a9a4-4e28-b3ce-49290b2a7759-button-0" class="Accordion_button__6ui4x"><h3 class="qa-accordion-item-title Accordion_heading__GP7y0 large cta">View transcript</h3></button><div id="accordion-3f5847a8-a9a4-4e28-b3ce-49290b2a7759-button-0" role="region" aria-labelledby="accordion-3f5847a8-a9a4-4e28-b3ce-49290b2a7759-button-0" class="qa-accordion-item-content Accordion_description__7Jnfh"><p><strong>Gus:</strong> Welcome to "The Argus Crude Report: The TMX Series," a podcast dedicated to Canadian heavy crude flows now hitting Pacific markets. In this series, we'll delve into the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, or TMX, its evolution, and the impact of the pipeline's operation on global markets. My name is Gus Vasquez, and I'm the editorial manager for crude and LPG. And today I am joined by Mykah Briscoe, who is our pipeline reporter at the U.S. Gulf Coast. And the reason we have Mykah today is because there's been a lot of questions and concerns even about the effects that the startup of TMX could have on the Gulf Coast in terms of the Canadian volumes that would come down and the kind of prices that you might see at the Gulf Coast as a result. So, Mykah, from kind of a big-picture standpoint, what are you seeing at the Gulf Coast in terms of what's happening with Canadian crude?</p> <p><strong>Mykah: </strong>Absolutely. So volumes at the Gulf Coast for low-TAN and high-TAN grades are kind of doing something different. So volumes at the Gulf Coast for WCS, Cold Lake, they fell the first full month post-TMX, but following that month, they've risen over the month ever since, and they're up compared to a year ago. High-TAN volumes, they've actually fallen for most months post-TMX, but they're still higher than a year ago. And there are multiple different factors that could have contributed to less flows of that particular grade.</p> <p><strong>Gus:</strong> Okay. So I guess really not much to report there as it were in terms of the volumes. Now, in terms of pricing, and, of course, that can be a very different area to look at because prices will, of course, react to many other factors than just flows and new pipelines, but just out of curiosity, if the volumes haven't changed that much, have we seen a price impact of any kind that we could perhaps attribute to the startup of TMX?</p> <p><strong>Mykah:</strong> For sure. So there was a little bit of a price impact there. I think it went more with expectation that there was going to be less flows, anticipation, people were preparing for it, but the first two to three months following the startup of TMX, differentials actually averaged weaker for the month. But once that passed, the market kind of corrected itself and strengthened again. The first month after it started strengthening, it averaged 85 cents stronger than the month before. And then for the October trade month, it averaged $1.20 higher than a month before. So the market kind of corrected itself, and those are for WCS, Cold Lake differentials. And, definitely, other factors could have contributed it. There were wildfires in Canada in July, which ultimately could have contributed to differential movement. There were refinery outages in the U.S. mid-continent, which could contribute...could weaken prices. So there are definitely multiple external factors besides TMX that could have impacted differentials. But it seems like lately markets have sort of returned to business as usual. Following TMX, they were weaker compared to the year prior, but, again, they're actually stronger now. In the past two months, they've averaged stronger than the year prior.</p> <p><strong>Gus: </strong>Okay, so while we have kind of been seeing some price differences in Canada, it seems that that's not really translating into any big changes in the Gulf Coast. And, like you mentioned, with fires and refinery outages and other things, I mean, it's hard to tell really what's driving everything. But it would appear that markets are reacting to the fundamentals as opposed to the new pipeline. So I guess that leaves me with one last topic that I know has come up when we talk to some people, and that was this idea of what's going to happen to Cushing when TMX starts because Canadian crude flows into Cushing. It can be a big part of the stocks that are held at Cushing. It can be used for blending into DSW streams, and, you know, that could potentially have all kinds of implications. What is the story of Cushing? Well, what have you seen?</p> <p><strong>Mykah:</strong> Not much. They are weaker. Most recent EIA data showed that Cushing storage has fallen over the week but that they were still higher than a year earlier. So with little impact on volume flows down the Keystone pipeline, there hasn't been much impact at Cushing.</p> <p><strong>Gus:</strong> Okay, so, again, it seems like not a lot to report on this side once you get south of the border. But I know for a fact that there is one thing that we talk about all the time that has been impacted, and it's kind of a big deal because it has some ramifications, right? So why don't you enlighten our audience and tell us what that is?</p> <p><strong>Mykah: </strong>Absolutely. So where we're going to actually see the most impact contributed to TMX is medium sours at the Gulf Coast, specifically Mars. So Mars has actually traded at a discount every month following the startup of TMX when it had been at a premium for majority of the months pre-TMX. It had fallen the first full three trade months following TMX and has sort of returned to normal, but it's really being impacted because China has started taking TMX exports. They have ready access to it, and they are blending it with the cheap, heavy Canadian and blending it with the light Murban that is also cheap as a substitute for Mars imports. So, in October, refiners in the Asia-Pacific actually collectively bought 44,000 barrels per day of Mars for arrival, which was down from 136,000 barrels per day in 2023, according to analytics firm, Kepler. The regional Mars imports for this year were at their lowest since Mars started flowing in Asia in 2017. So, because China, which is one of the largest buyers of Mars in Asia, they just have such access to the cheap, heavy Canadian grades. And Mideast Gulf Murban has been trading near parity to medium sour Mars and from the same region that they're blending in. It's just making more economic sense than buying Mars from the U.S.</p> <p><strong>Gus: </strong>Yeah, I mean, that does make sense. I understand. At the end, it's all about economics. And if you can blend and get a better result, then, for sure, people are going to do that. And it's interesting to me, because having covered Latin America markets for a while, what happens to Mars is going to be an indicator for what may happen in Latin America. So, for example, Colombian crudes that may be looking to go to the Gulf Coast with a weak Mars price, they may not find themselves competitive and may actually end up flowing to other regions. So it is having a knock-on effect on the medium sour market at the Gulf Coast that I think could be quite important. And that is definitely something that, going forward, we'll have to keep an eye on and look a little bit more deeply into because that could be a bit of a shift. And, as you say, if it's a matter of Mars moving from a premium pre-startup of TMX to a discount every month, that does make a big difference for a lot of folks.</p> <p>Certainly, the Saudis and the Iraqis and the Kuwaitis who use the Argus Sour Crude Index price to set their pricing to the U.S., Mars is a big part of that ASCI number. So then they also will have to adjust and think about, you know, maybe a future in which Mars is not going to be at a premium anymore, and they need to adjust accordingly. So that is all really interesting and actually quite a big impact. So, in the end, maybe not on the Canadian side, but certainly the Gulf Coast is feeling a difference as a result of TMX.</p> <p>So, with that, I think we've had quite a bit of information and a pretty good discussion. So we're probably going to call it a day. But before we go, I would say keep an eye out because we will be planning on releasing new podcasts on TMX in the future as things continue to develop. In the meantime, if you're looking for more in-depth daily coverage of what's going on in the Americas crude oil markets, I would recommend subscribing to Argus Crude. With that, you will gain access to daily price information for the crude assessments globally, including pipeline assessments like WTI Houston. Plus, you will have the benefit of having all the exclusive insights on TMX that we come across. So please don't miss out on this valuable resource. And thank you for tuning in. And we look forward to having you with us again on the next episode of "The Crude Report: TMX Series."</p></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="component component-padding navy " id="products"><div class="component-content"><div class="container"><div class="row"><div class="col-12 col-lg-7"><h2 class="section-heading">Related products</h2></div></div><div class="ProductListing_products__Uxsig row"><div class="col-12 col-lg-6"><a class="ProductListing_itemLink__RVSjo white" href="/ja/solutions/products/argus-crude"><h3 class="sub-heading h2 d-none d-lg-block">Argus Crude</h3><h3 class="sub-heading h4 d-lg-none">Argus Crude</h3><div class="ProductListing_itemDescription__E7NK3">世界各地の原油市場におけるスポット価格を市況解説とともに提供する情報サービスです。掲載される価格インデックスは、北米、欧州、旧ソおよびアフリカ原油などの契約価格の決済指標として利用されるほか、中東およびアジア市場においても社内販売価格や在庫評価額として利用されています。</div><span class="ProductListing_itemCta__NeAHB cta"></span></a></div><div class="col-12 col-lg-6"><a class="ProductListing_itemLink__RVSjo white" href="/ja/solutions/products/argus-crude-and-refined-products-outlook"><h3 class="sub-heading h2 d-none d-lg-block">Argus Crude and Refined Products Outlook</h3><h3 class="sub-heading h4 d-lg-none">Argus Crude and Refined Products Outlook</h3><div class="ProductListing_itemDescription__E7NK3">Monthly price forecasts for key crude grades, regional benchmarks and refined oil products up to 24 months out.</div><span class="ProductListing_itemCta__NeAHB cta"></span></a></div><div class="col-12 col-lg-6"><a class="ProductListing_itemLink__RVSjo white" href="/ja/solutions/products/argus-americas-crude"><h3 class="sub-heading h2 d-none d-lg-block">Argus Americas Crude</h3><h3 class="sub-heading h4 d-lg-none">Argus Americas Crude</h3><div class="ProductListing_itemDescription__E7NK3">Argus Americas Crude enriches your understanding of the US Gulf coast, US midcontinent, US west coast, Canada and South America crude markets</div><span class="ProductListing_itemCta__NeAHB cta"></span></a></div><div class="col-12 col-lg-6"><a class="ProductListing_itemLink__RVSjo white" href="/ja/solutions/products/argus-americas-crude-oil-forward-curves"><h3 class="sub-heading h2 d-none d-lg-block">Argus Americas Crude Oil Forward Curves </h3><h3 class="sub-heading h4 d-lg-none">Argus Americas Crude Oil Forward Curves </h3><div class="ProductListing_itemDescription__E7NK3">Independent market valuation tool to support investment and trading decisions for crude grades across the Americas.</div><span class="ProductListing_itemCta__NeAHB cta"></span></a></div></div></div></div></div><div class="component component-padding grey " id="spotlight"><div class="component-content"><div class="container"><div class="row"><div class="col-12 col-lg-7"><h2 class="qa-combinedfeed-title section-heading">Spotlight content</h2></div></div><div aria-live="polite" class="Tabs_tabs__tVXxO secondary"><div class="Tabs_header__OTD06 qa-tab-header"><span></span><div class="Tabs_list__2G0qg qa-tab-panel" role="tablist"><button type="button" class="Tabs_button__SaOdf current qa-tab-option" role="tab"><span class="Tabs_buttonInner__4_K_m">Podcasts</span></button><button type="button" class="Tabs_button__SaOdf qa-tab-option" role="tab"><span class="Tabs_buttonInner__4_K_m">Insight papers</span></button><button type="button" class="Tabs_button__SaOdf qa-tab-option" role="tab"><span class="Tabs_buttonInner__4_K_m">Blogs</span></button></div></div><div class="qa-tabspanel-list Tabs_panel__uEe2n current" role="tabpanel"><div class="Media_group__OeJhY row"><div class="col-12 col-lg-4"><a class="qa-combinedfeed-primary-item Media_link__RM2GX white" href="/ja/news-and-insights/energy-and-commodity-podcasts/weight-of-freight-trump-card-us-tariffs-canada-mexico-impact-crude-freight-markets"><img alt="Weight of Freight: Trump Card – How would US tariffs on Canada and Mexico impact crude and freight markets? 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In this series, we'll delve into the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, or TMX, its evolution, and the impact of the pipeline's operation on global markets. My name is Gus Vasquez, and I'm the editorial manager for crude and LPG. And today I am joined by Mykah Briscoe, who is our pipeline reporter at the U.S. Gulf Coast. And the reason we have Mykah today is because there's been a lot of questions and concerns even about the effects that the startup of TMX could have on the Gulf Coast in terms of the Canadian volumes that would come down and the kind of prices that you might see at the Gulf Coast as a result. So, Mykah, from kind of a big-picture standpoint, what are you seeing at the Gulf Coast in terms of what's happening with Canadian crude?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMykah: \u003c/strong\u003eAbsolutely. So volumes at the Gulf Coast for low-TAN and high-TAN grades are kind of doing something different. So volumes at the Gulf Coast for WCS, Cold Lake, they fell the first full month post-TMX, but following that month, they've risen over the month ever since, and they're up compared to a year ago. High-TAN volumes, they've actually fallen for most months post-TMX, but they're still higher than a year ago. And there are multiple different factors that could have contributed to less flows of that particular grade.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGus:\u003c/strong\u003e Okay. So I guess really not much to report there as it were in terms of the volumes. Now, in terms of pricing, and, of course, that can be a very different area to look at because prices will, of course, react to many other factors than just flows and new pipelines, but just out of curiosity, if the volumes haven't changed that much, have we seen a price impact of any kind that we could perhaps attribute to the startup of TMX?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMykah:\u003c/strong\u003e For sure. So there was a little bit of a price impact there. I think it went more with expectation that there was going to be less flows, anticipation, people were preparing for it, but the first two to three months following the startup of TMX, differentials actually averaged weaker for the month. But once that passed, the market kind of corrected itself and strengthened again. The first month after it started strengthening, it averaged 85 cents stronger than the month before. And then for the October trade month, it averaged $1.20 higher than a month before. So the market kind of corrected itself, and those are for WCS, Cold Lake differentials. And, definitely, other factors could have contributed it. There were wildfires in Canada in July, which ultimately could have contributed to differential movement. There were refinery outages in the U.S. mid-continent, which could contribute...could weaken prices. So there are definitely multiple external factors besides TMX that could have impacted differentials. But it seems like lately markets have sort of returned to business as usual. Following TMX, they were weaker compared to the year prior, but, again, they're actually stronger now. In the past two months, they've averaged stronger than the year prior.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGus: \u003c/strong\u003eOkay, so while we have kind of been seeing some price differences in Canada, it seems that that's not really translating into any big changes in the Gulf Coast. And, like you mentioned, with fires and refinery outages and other things, I mean, it's hard to tell really what's driving everything. But it would appear that markets are reacting to the fundamentals as opposed to the new pipeline. So I guess that leaves me with one last topic that I know has come up when we talk to some people, and that was this idea of what's going to happen to Cushing when TMX starts because Canadian crude flows into Cushing. It can be a big part of the stocks that are held at Cushing. It can be used for blending into DSW streams, and, you know, that could potentially have all kinds of implications. What is the story of Cushing? Well, what have you seen?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMykah:\u003c/strong\u003e Not much. They are weaker. Most recent EIA data showed that Cushing storage has fallen over the week but that they were still higher than a year earlier. So with little impact on volume flows down the Keystone pipeline, there hasn't been much impact at Cushing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGus:\u003c/strong\u003e Okay, so, again, it seems like not a lot to report on this side once you get south of the border. But I know for a fact that there is one thing that we talk about all the time that has been impacted, and it's kind of a big deal because it has some ramifications, right? So why don't you enlighten our audience and tell us what that is?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMykah: \u003c/strong\u003eAbsolutely. So where we're going to actually see the most impact contributed to TMX is medium sours at the Gulf Coast, specifically Mars. So Mars has actually traded at a discount every month following the startup of TMX when it had been at a premium for majority of the months pre-TMX. It had fallen the first full three trade months following TMX and has sort of returned to normal, but it's really being impacted because China has started taking TMX exports. They have ready access to it, and they are blending it with the cheap, heavy Canadian and blending it with the light Murban that is also cheap as a substitute for Mars imports. So, in October, refiners in the Asia-Pacific actually collectively bought 44,000 barrels per day of Mars for arrival, which was down from 136,000 barrels per day in 2023, according to analytics firm, Kepler. The regional Mars imports for this year were at their lowest since Mars started flowing in Asia in 2017. So, because China, which is one of the largest buyers of Mars in Asia, they just have such access to the cheap, heavy Canadian grades. And Mideast Gulf Murban has been trading near parity to medium sour Mars and from the same region that they're blending in. It's just making more economic sense than buying Mars from the U.S.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGus: \u003c/strong\u003eYeah, I mean, that does make sense. I understand. At the end, it's all about economics. And if you can blend and get a better result, then, for sure, people are going to do that. And it's interesting to me, because having covered Latin America markets for a while, what happens to Mars is going to be an indicator for what may happen in Latin America. So, for example, Colombian crudes that may be looking to go to the Gulf Coast with a weak Mars price, they may not find themselves competitive and may actually end up flowing to other regions. So it is having a knock-on effect on the medium sour market at the Gulf Coast that I think could be quite important. And that is definitely something that, going forward, we'll have to keep an eye on and look a little bit more deeply into because that could be a bit of a shift. And, as you say, if it's a matter of Mars moving from a premium pre-startup of TMX to a discount every month, that does make a big difference for a lot of folks.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCertainly, the Saudis and the Iraqis and the Kuwaitis who use the Argus Sour Crude Index price to set their pricing to the U.S., Mars is a big part of that ASCI number. So then they also will have to adjust and think about, you know, maybe a future in which Mars is not going to be at a premium anymore, and they need to adjust accordingly. So that is all really interesting and actually quite a big impact. So, in the end, maybe not on the Canadian side, but certainly the Gulf Coast is feeling a difference as a result of TMX.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSo, with that, I think we've had quite a bit of information and a pretty good discussion. So we're probably going to call it a day. But before we go, I would say keep an eye out because we will be planning on releasing new podcasts on TMX in the future as things continue to develop. In the meantime, if you're looking for more in-depth daily coverage of what's going on in the Americas crude oil markets, I would recommend subscribing to Argus Crude. With that, you will gain access to daily price information for the crude assessments globally, including pipeline assessments like WTI Houston. Plus, you will have the benefit of having all the exclusive insights on TMX that we come across. So please don't miss out on this valuable resource. And thank you for tuning in. 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