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An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025 | Congressional Budget Office
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</section> </section> <div data-drupal-messages-fallback class="hidden"></div> </div> </header> <main role="main" class="outer-wrapper"> <a id="main-content" tabindex="-1"></a> <section id="content"> <section id="block-cbo-cbo-system-main" class="block block-system block-system-main-block"> <article> <div> <div class="top-section" style="position: relative;"> <h1 class="title" id="page-title"> <span>An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025</span> </h1> <div class="meta"> <div class="field field--name-field-display-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden field__item"><time datetime="2023-07-26T12:00:00Z">July 26, 2023</time> </div> <div class="content-type">Report</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-homepage-graphic field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><div> <div class="field field--name-field-media-image field--type-image field--label-hidden field__item"> <picture> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/918/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=dt1FFuvn 918w, /sites/default/files/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg 1650w" media="@media screen and (min-width: 61.25em) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-width: 61.25em) and (min-resolution: 120dpi)" type="image/jpeg" sizes="918px" width="1650" height="1100"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg 1x" media="@media screen and (min-width: 48em) and (min-width: 61.25em)" type="image/jpeg" width="1650" height="1100"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg 1x" media="@media screen and (min-width: 61.25em)" type="image/jpeg" width="1650" height="1100"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/240/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=__gsSKUb 240w, /sites/default/files/styles/480/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=XGgnUush 480w, /sites/default/files/styles/624/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=1jmmN81S 624w, /sites/default/files/styles/800/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=ldGxJY8A 800w, /sites/default/files/styles/1078/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=GCymDE1m 1078w, /sites/default/files/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg 1650w" media="@media screen and (min-width: 28em)" type="image/jpeg" sizes="49vw" width="1650" height="1100"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/240/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=__gsSKUb 240w, /sites/default/files/styles/480/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=XGgnUush 480w, /sites/default/files/styles/624/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=1jmmN81S 624w, /sites/default/files/styles/800/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=ldGxJY8A 800w, /sites/default/files/styles/1500/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=-Tt86GGR 1500w, /sites/default/files/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg 1650w" type="image/jpeg" sizes="95vw" width="1650" height="1100"/> <img loading="eager" width="480" height="320" src="/sites/default/files/styles/480/public/2019-04/Capitol-1650x1100-Entire-004.jpg?itok=XGgnUush" alt="United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC" /> </picture> </div> </div> </div> <div class="summary"><div class="view view-summary view-id-summary view-display-id-meta_summary js-view-dom-id-c587e486dc7e89b7584c81980698648b1d79ea512b507e74ef254540d5c046ec"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><p>In CBO’s latest projections, economic growth slows and then picks up over the 2023–2025 period. That initial slowdown in economic growth drives up unemployment. Inflation continues to gradually decline.</p></div> </div> </div> </div> <section class="meta--data"> <div class="left"> <div id="toc"></div> </div> <div class="right" style=""> <div class="documents" style=""> <div class="view view-html-report-link view-id-html_report_link view-display-id-link js-view-dom-id-96fae2dbe43900250f0420fa71f6a8340e6ba35b1de330da069b10fe5d2b23bb"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"><div class="views-field views-field-title-1"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59431">View Document</a></span></div></div> </div> </div> <div class="view view-view-document view-id-view_document view-display-id-block_1 js-view-dom-id-17fd119257fa03aa68bf4b20466dc9e6c77972913aad5e754bd4b38b2d433a81"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="views-row"> <a href="/system/files/2023-07/59258-econ-outlook.pdf">View Document</a><div class="document-size">443.47 KB</div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div><!-- /.top-section --> <div class="main-section"> <section class="summary"> <header role="button" class="head-section" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="content-panel"><h2>Summary</h2></header> <div class="content" id="content-panel" aria-hidden="true"> <article> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p>The Congressional Budget Office periodically updates its economic forecast to ensure that its projections reflect recent economic developments and current law. This report provides details about CBO’s most recent projections of the economy through 2025, which reflect economic developments as of June 22, 2023.</p><p>Over the 2023–2025 period, in CBO’s latest projections:</p><ul><li>Economic growth slows and then picks up. The growth of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) slows to a 0.4 percent annual rate during the second half of 2023; for the year as a whole, real GDP increases by 0.9 percent. After 2023, growth accelerates as monetary policy eases. Real GDP increases by 1.5 percent in 2024 and by 2.4 percent in 2025.</li><li>That initial slowdown in economic growth drives up unemployment. The unemployment rate reaches 4.1 percent by the end of 2023 and 4.7 percent by the end of 2024 before falling slightly, to 4.5 percent, in 2025. Payroll employment declines by an average of 10,000 jobs per month in 2024 and rises by an average of 6,000 jobs per month in 2025.</li><li>Inflation continues to gradually decline. Growth in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) slows from 3.3 percent in 2023 to 2.6 percent in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025. That slowdown reflects several factors, including softening labor markets and flagging growth in home prices (and even declines in some regions), which passes through to rents.</li><li>The Federal Reserve further increases the target range for the federal funds rate (the interest rate that financial institutions charge each other for overnight loans of their monetary reserves) in mid-2023. It begins reducing that target range in the first half of 2024, as inflation continues to cool. The federal funds rate declines from 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.</li></ul></div> </article> </div> </section> <section class="documents"> <header class="head-section"> <a name="data"></a> <h2 id="">Data and Supplemental Information</h2> </header> <div class="content"> <div class="view view-supplemental-attachments view-id-supplemental_attachments view-display-id-block_3 js-view-dom-id-2b7674308afdd01448403413799cce74e6dc95c10ae9794f3efd0158c2a4826b"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="item-list"> <ul> <li><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-name"><div class="field-content"><a href="/system/files/2023-07/59258-Data.xlsx">Data Underlying Figures</a></div></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-uploaded-file-note"><span class="field-content uploaded-file-note"></span></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="documents data"> <div class="data-row"> <header class="head-section"><h2 id="">Economic Data</h2></header> <div class="content"> <div class="views-row"> <div class="views-field views-field-field-short-title-1"><div class="field-content"><a href="/publication/51135" hreflang="und">Economic Projections</a> </div></div> </div> <div class="views-row"> <div class="views-field views-field-field-short-title-1"><div class="field-content"><a href="/publication/55022" hreflang="en">Historical Data and Economic Projections</a> </div></div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="related-publications"> <header class="head-section" role="button"><a name="related_pub"></a><h2 id="">Related Publications</h2></header> <div class="content"><div class="view view-related view-id-related view-display-id-publications js-view-dom-id-e5cb18a96407aebf54fcebca01673cb8dd2e6497b3242867ea8e534ceff80e7c"> <div class="view-content"> <div class="item-list"> <ul> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59710" hreflang="en">The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2024-02-07T12:00:00Z">February 7, 2024</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59543" hreflang="en">The U.S. Economic Outlook</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-09-14T12:00:00Z">September 14, 2023</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/59235" hreflang="en">How the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 Affects CBO’s Projections of Federal Debt</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-06-09T12:00:00Z">June 9, 2023</time> </div></div></li> <li><div class="views-field views-field-title"><span class="field-content"><a href="/publication/58848" hreflang="en">The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033</a></span></div><div class="views-field views-field-field-display-date"><div class="field-content"><time datetime="2023-02-15T12:00:00Z">February 15, 2023</time> </div></div></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> </section> </div><!-- /.main-section --> </div> </article> </section> </section> </main> <footer id="site-footer" role="contentinfo"> <div class="footer-top-wrapper"> <section class="footer-top"> <section id="block-cbo-stayconnected" class="block block-block-content block-block-content121d8e86-2c04-4907-8bda-853870ff58b5"> <h2 >Stay Connected</h2> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><form action="https://www.feedblitz.com/f/f.fbz?AddNewUserDirect" id="email-updates-signup" method="POST" 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