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浏览：<span id="hits">276</span>    下载：<span id="download">26</span>     体积：2.52M     <a href="http://www.casmita.com/comment/index.php?mid=15&itemid=109">评论：0</a>    </div> <div id="down"><br/><br/><br/><br/><br/><br/> <center><img src="http://www.casmita.com/skin/default/image/load.gif"/></center> <br/><br/><br/><br/><br/><br/> </div> <div class="content" id="content"><p> <span style="color: rgb(72, 72, 72); text-indent: 2em; font-family: simsun, "Hiragino Sans GB";">半导体季度概览</span></p> <div class="ctx-content" style="font-family: simsun, "Hiragino Sans GB"; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 15px;"> <p style="font-size: 14px; margin: 15px 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 22.96px; color: rgb(72, 72, 72);">　　行业持续上行，但复苏进度一波三折。2024年三季度，半导体依然位于上行区间。美国半导体行业协会（SIA）表示2024年8月全球半导体销售额约为461.7亿美元，同比增长16.30%（上月同比增长15.20%），环比减少3.07%（上月环比减少2.12%）。一知名海外大行表示，半导体上行周期正在接近尾声，将于2024年四季度达到顶点，主要是由于主要企业的盈利和需求都已看到拐点。另一海外大行对此意见相左，他们认为根据半导体的周期特点，2025年二季度会见到本轮周期的高点，主要是由于AI的需求不如市场预期的影响大。总体而言，行业上行仍在持续，但行业上行已经入后半段已成确定事实，复苏进入一波三折阶段。</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; margin: 15px 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 22.96px; color: rgb(72, 72, 72);">　　存储价格持续反弹，热门料号与利基产品节奏不一。DXI指数（DRAMExchange）显示自2023年9月开始，存储价格开始企稳反弹，2024年三季度，DXI指数持续反弹，但增幅已有所减缓。此外，利基型存储如DDR3的部分型号三季度现货价格有所回落，也代表涨价自热门料号的传导并非那么顺利。市场不再表现为同涨同跌，而是节奏出现分化。</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; margin: 15px 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 22.96px; color: rgb(72, 72, 72);">　　海外与国内整体节奏迥异，相关风向标公司展望积极。本轮周期上行主要是由于人工智能对半导体的需求所致，由于众所周知的原因，国内该部分产能有所缺失。目前国内半导体产能集中于成熟制程，下游分布以消费为主。随着“降息周期”正式开启，我们判断全球消费需求会显著提升，相关企业也将迎来明显的增长。晶圆代工企业中芯国际在二季度财报电话会议上表示，预计全年销售收入增幅将超过同行平均值，其12寸产品上出现了供不应求迹象。</p> <div> </div> <p style="font-size: 14px; margin: 15px 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 22.96px; 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