The Fury of History

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href="https://www.cnas.org/research/congress-and-national-security/key-national-security-issues">Renewing the National Security Consensus</a> </li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div id="experts-menu" aria-hidden="true" class="megamenu"> <div class="menu"> <button type="button" class="megamenu__close x-button" data-js="close"> <span class="megamenu__close__flex"> <span class="screenreader-only">Close</span> <span class="x"></span> </span> </button> <div class="menu__pane -c6"> <h3 class="menu__heading" data-toc-skip>Resident Experts</h3> <ul class="menu__list"> <li> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/experts">All Resident Experts</a> </li> </ul> <ul class="menu__list"> <li class="break"> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/anna-avanesyan">Anna Avanesyan</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/jakob-barlow">Jakob Barlow</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/molly-campbell">Molly Campbell</a></li> <li><a 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Johnston</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/andrea-kendall-taylor">Andrea Kendall-Taylor</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/emily-kilcrease">Emily Kilcrease</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/katherine-kuzminski">Katherine L. Kuzminski</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/nicholas-lokker">Nicholas Lokker</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/jonathan-lord">Jonathan Lord</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/gibbs-mckinley">Gibbs McKinley</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/carisa-nietsche">Carisa Nietsche</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/stacie-pettyjohn">Stacie Pettyjohn</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/ruby-scanlon">Ruby Scanlon</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/paul-scharre">Paul Scharre</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/philip-sheers">Philip Sheers</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/jacob-stokes">Jacob Stokes</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/taren-sylvester">Taren Sylvester</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/adam-h-tong">Adam H. Tong</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/constanza-m-vidal-bustamante">Constanza M. Vidal Bustamante</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/josh-wallin">Josh Wallin</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/becca-wasser">Becca Wasser</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/caleb-withers">Caleb Withers</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/robert-work">Robert O. Work</a></li> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu__pane -c6"> <h3 class="menu__heading" data-toc-skip>Adjunct Experts</h3> <ul class="menu__list"> <li> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/experts#adjunct">All Adjunct Experts</a> </li> </ul> <ul class="menu__list"> <li class="break"> <ul> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/manpreet-singh-anand">Manpreet Singh Anand</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/brandon-j-archuleta">Brandon J. Archuleta</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/lt-gen-robert-ashley-jr-ret">Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, Jr. (Ret.)</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/christian-beckner">Christian Beckner</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/samuel-bendett">Samuel Bendett</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/paul-benfield">Paul Benfield</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/rachel-brandenburg">Rachel Brandenburg</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/dr-jonathan-brewer">Dr. Jonathan Brewer</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/josh-campbell">Josh Campbell</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/pablo-chavez">Pablo Chavez</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/richard-connolly">Richard Connolly</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/john-costello">John Costello</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/eitan-danon">Eitan Danon</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/richard-j-danzig">Richard J. Danzig</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/jason-dempsey">Jason Dempsey</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/yaya-j-fanusie">Yaya J. Fanusie</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/ryan-fedasiuk">Ryan Fedasiuk</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/david-feith">David Feith</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/edward-fishman-1">Edward Fishman</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/tim-fist">Tim Fist</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/greg-grant">Greg Grant</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/dr-erik-lin-greenberg">Dr. Erik Lin-Greenberg</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/michael-greenwald">Michael Greenwald</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/hamzeh-hadad">Hamzeh Hadad</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/hon-robert-f-hale">Hon. Robert F. Hale</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/heli-hautala">Heli Hautala</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/franz-stefan-gady">Franz-Stefan Gady</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/jeannette-gaudry-haynie">Dr. Jeannette Gaudry Haynie</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/jacob-helberg">Jacob Helberg</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/michelle-holko-phd-pmp">Michelle Holko, PhD, PMP</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/john-hughes">John Hughes</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/kyleanne-hunter">Dr. Kyleanne Hunter</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/ltg-anthony-r-tony-ierardi-usa-ret">LTG Anthony R. "Tony" Ierardi, USA (Ret.)</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/akira-igata">Akira Igata</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/elsa-b-kania">Elsa B. Kania</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/robert-kaplan">Robert D. Kaplan</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/duyeon-kim">Dr. Duyeon Kim</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/christopher-d-kolenda">Christopher D. Kolenda</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/margarita-rita-konaev">Margarita "Rita" Konaev</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/steven-kosiak">Steven Kosiak</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/dr-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr">Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr.</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/thomas-krueger">Thomas Krueger</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.cnas.org/people/peter-l-levin">Peter L. 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srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_1024x384_crop_center-center_none/Iran-Missiles.jpg"> <source media="(min-width: 600px)" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_768x432_crop_center-center_none/Iran-Missiles.jpg"> <source media="(min-width: 376px)" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_600x400_crop_center-center_none/Iran-Missiles.jpg"> <source media="(min-width: 320px)" srcset="https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/_375x250_crop_center-center_none/Iran-Missiles.jpg">  <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" alt=""> </picture> </figure> </div> <div class="article__header -overlap -white wrapper -large"> <div class="attribution-block"> <button class="image-attribution credit sans-serif fz11 margin-bottom-1em animated-link" aria-label="Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images"> <span class="image-attribution__label">Image Credit</span> </button> <p class="sans-serif fz11 bold uppercase margin-bottom-1em">October 02, 2024</p> </div> <div class="article__header__title-group"> <h1 class="page-title">The Fury of History</h1> </div> <div class="article__header__meta"> <p class="margin-top-1em article__header__meta__byline"> <span class="sans-serif fz14">By:</span> <a class="contributor" href="https://www.cnas.org/people/robert-kaplan">Robert D. Kaplan</a> </p> <div class="social-icons margin-top-1em"> <a class="social-icon" href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnas.org%2Fpublications%2Fcommentary%2Fthe-fury-of-history"> <span class="sprite -facebook "> <svg width="20" height="20" class="svgsprite"> <title>Facebook</title> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#facebook"></use> </svg> </span> </a> <a class="social-icon" href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=The%20Fury%20of%20History&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnas.org%2Fpublications%2Fcommentary%2Fthe-fury-of-history&via=CNASdc"> <span class="sprite -twitter "> <svg width="20" height="20" class="svgsprite"> <title>Twitter</title> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#twitter"></use> </svg> </span> </a> <a class="social-icon" href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnas.org%2Fpublications%2Fcommentary%2Fthe-fury-of-history&title=The%20Fury%20of%20History&mini=true"> <span class="sprite -linkedin "> <svg width="20" height="20" class="svgsprite"> <title>LinkedIn</title> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#linkedin"></use> </svg> </span> </a> <a class="social-icon" href="javascript:window.print()"> <span class="sprite -printer "> <svg width="24" height="24" class="svgsprite"> <title>Print</title> <use xlink:href="/assets/images/icons.svg?v=2#printer"></use> </svg> </span> </a> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="container"> <div class="row" >  <div id="mainbar" class="col-sm-12"> <div class="wrapper wysiwyg margin-vertical "> <p>The Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union ended dramatically not because of a military conflict or international crisis, but because of internal domestic politics: Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms inside the Soviet Union led not to rejuvenation but to the dismantling of the communist system itself, and that, as we know, changed the world.</p> <p>The postmodern Middle East may experience a similar fate. The military conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other Arabs can have lulls and ceasefires, but ultimately cannot truly end until there is change inside Iran. This historical process has only quickened because of the current war in Lebanon, which pits Israel against Iran’s most militarily powerful proxy force, Hezbollah.</p> </div> <div class="wrapper -large -clear default"> <div class="pullquote margin-vertical default"> <blockquote> <p>Even manifestly unpopular regimes do not end on their own. There has to be a trigger.</p> </blockquote> </div> </div> <div class="wrapper wysiwyg margin-vertical "> <p>The assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on 27 September, followed by Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon, further undermines Iran, whose decades-long project in Lebanon may be turning to ashes. The regional war just ahead of us will ultimately focus on Iran itself and its military-security complex. Iranian territory will be less and less off-limits.</p> <p>Its clerical regime, in power since 1979, defines the region’s era to an extent much greater than even <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/tag/benjamin-netanyahu" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benjamin Netanyahu</a>, Israel’s prime minister, himself a historical life-force who will echo for far longer than the unmemorable mediocrities that now govern Europe and the US. But it is Iran, a country of 88.5 million and an ancient cluster of Persian civilisation (rather than many Arab countries, which are merely vague geographical expressions), that holds the key to the current regional war. Energy-rich Iran provides the money, the military training, the brilliant tactics and the dynamic ideology of revolutionary nihilism (which combines a radical Islam with an anti-Semitic fascism) that has allowed Hamas and Hezbollah to become what they are today. The older Arab-Israeli conflict over historical Palestine was a conventional contest over states and territory. But the introduction of clerical Iran has given the struggle a <em>tiers-mondiste</em> quality, further infused with a millenarian religious call for the annihilation of an entire people.</p> <p>Read the full article from <em><a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/cover-story/2024/10/the-fury-of-history" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The New Statesman.</a></em></p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div id="biblio" class="col-sm-12"> </div> </div> </div> <div class="container"> <div class="row"> <div id="biblio" class="col-sm-12"> <section class="publications-block margin-vertical" > <div class="wrapper -large"> <h2 class="section-title -related margin-bottom-half-em" id="related-publications" data-toc-skip> <span> More from CNAS </span> </h2> <ul class="entry-listing"> <li class="-with-image"> <div class="labeled-image"> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/podcast/russia-in-the-middle-east-with-jonathan-lord-and-hanna-notte" target="" aria-label="Russia in the Middle East with Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte - image link"> <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==" srcset=" https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/title/_165x110_crop_center-center_none/Artboard-1-fin.png 165w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/title/_285x190_crop_center-center_none/Artboard-1-fin.png 285w, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/title/_400x267_crop_center-center_none/Artboard-1-fin.png 400w" sizes="(min-width: 600px) 285px, (min-width: 430px) 400px, calc(100vw - 30px)" width="400" height="267" class="desaturate" alt=""> </a> <span class="label">Podcast</span> </div> <ul class="entry-listing__meta"> <li>October 10, 2024</li> </ul> <a href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/podcast/russia-in-the-middle-east-with-jonathan-lord-and-hanna-notte" target="" class="sans-serif fz16 bold margin-top-half-em">Russia in the Middle East with Jonathan Lord and Hanna Notte</a> <p class="fz13 sans-serif margin-vertical-1em"> One year after the October 7 attacks by Hamas, the crisis in the Middle East has grown more and more complex. 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