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</div> </div>  <div class="posts-wrapper"><article id="post-8107" class="post-8107 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-convenience-voting category-predicting-elections category-preferential-voting-single-member-av category-queensland tag-convenience-voting tag-early-voting tag-election tag-preferences tag-queensland tag-south-brisbane layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-preference-flows-and-vote-by-type-compared-to-2020/" rel="bookmark">QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-29T17:20:52+11:00" content="2024-10-29">October 29, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-29T17:36:35+11:00">October 29, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Rather than write a daily post on vote updates, I’ve been putting my effort into ensuring results are as accurate as possible on the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/results?filter=all&sort=latest">ABC Queensland Election Results site</a>.</p> <p>While the ECQ conducted indicative preference counts for all votes counted on the weekend, it has ceased undertaking further preference counts and removed the weekend’s totals from its website.</p> <p>Before the data was removed, I captured all the available preference flow data and used it to re-build the preference formulas in the ABC’s election computer. The ABC results site is now applying the weekend’s preference flow data to the latest first preference totals being released by the ECQ.</p> <p>In this post I will provide some analysis of these flows compared to 2020, and also look at the dramatic increase in swing that occurred on election night as pre-poll centre counts began to arrive.</p> <p>As at the close of counting on Monday, the swing against Labor on polling day votes was 4.9%, but 8.6% for Pre-polls and 10.3% on the initial count of postal votes. That explains why the swing rose through the evening.</p> <p>There’s more on vote by type and preference flows inside the post.<br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-preference-flows-and-vote-by-type-compared-to-2020/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">QLD2024 – Preference Flows and Vote by Type compared to 2020</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8099" class="post-8099 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-convenience-voting category-queensland tag-convenience-voting tag-early-voting tag-election tag-election-night-counting tag-queensland layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/early-voting-and-how-tonights-queensland-election-count-might-unfold/" rel="bookmark">Early Voting and how tonight’s Queensland Election Night Count might unfold</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-26T13:28:55+11:00" content="2024-10-26">October 26, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-26T16:15:23+11:00">October 26, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>As usual I put this post here for the information of the tens of thousands of people Google sends here on election night.</p> <p>I won’t be posting here tonight as I will be part of the ABC’s live Queensland election coverage. The broadcast will start at 6pm Queensland time on the ABC’s main channel. It will also be available on the ABC Newschannel, from 6pm in Queensland, <del datetime="2024-10-26T03:54:45+00:00">5pm</del> 7pm in the southern Daylight saving time states, and the equivalent live time in other states.,</p> <p>In this post I have a wrap of the final early voting figures, and a few warnings on how tonight’s count will unfold. Polling day counting will report quickly but the giant counts required for pre-poll voting centres will take longer to finish.</p> <p>There is every chance that Labor’s results will look strong early in the evening, only to fade with later pre-poll vote counting.</p> <p>There will also be a full results service at the<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld-election-2024"> ABC’s Queensland election site.</a><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/early-voting-and-how-tonights-queensland-election-count-might-unfold/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">Early Voting and how tonight’s Queensland Election Night Count might unfold</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8070" class="post-8070 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-a-c-t category-preferential-voting-multi-member tag-act tag-canberra tag-election tag-hare-clark layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act2024-post-election-results-thread/" rel="bookmark">ACT2024 – Post-Election Results Thread</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-21T10:35:39+11:00" content="2024-10-21">October 21, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-26T16:11:17+11:00">October 26, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p><strong>Saturday 26</strong> – Winners declared. I’ll update commentary once today’s Queensland election is over. The last spots discussed in the this blog went to the Greens’ Laura Nutall in Brindabella and Liberal Ed Cocks in Ginninderra. </p> <p>The final party numbers are Labor ten, Liberal nine, Greens four, Independents for Canberra one, Fiona Carrick Independent one. The members re-elected, elected, defeated and retiring are as follows.</p> <p><strong>Brindabella</strong></p> <ul> <li>(1) Mark Parton (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(2) Deborah Morris (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) elected </li> <li>(3) Caitlin Tough (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) elected</li> <li>(4) Taimus Werner-Gibbings (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) elected </li> <li>(5) Laura Nutall (<span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span>) re-elected</li> <li>Defeated – Mick Gentleman (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>)</li> <li>Retired – Joy Burch (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) and Nicole Lauder (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Ginninderra</strong></p> <ul> <li>(1) Yvette Berry (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(2) Tara Cheyne (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(3) Peter Cain (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(4) Jo Clay (<span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(5) Chiaka Barry (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>Defeated – Elizabeth Kikkert (Family First candidate, ex-Liberal MLA)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Kurrajong</strong></p> <ul> <li>(1) Andrew Barr (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(2) Elizabeth Lee (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(3) Rachel Stephen-Smith (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>)</li> <li>(4) Shane Rattenbury (<span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span>)</li> <li>(5) Thomas Emmerson (<span class="ptyorange">IND</span>)</li> <li>Defeated – Rebecca Vassarotti (<span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span>)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Murrumbidgee</strong></p> <ul> <li>(1) Jeremy Hanson (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(2) Chris Steel (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(3) Fiona Carrick (<span class="ptygold">IND</span>) elected</li> <li>(4) Ed Cocks (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(5) Marisa Paterson (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>)</li> <li>Defeated – Emma Davidson (<span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span>)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Yerrabi</strong></p> <ul> <li>(1) Michael Petterson (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(2) Suzanne Orr (<span class="ptyred">ALP</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(3) Leanne Castley (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(4) James Milligan (<span class="ptyblue">LIB</span>) re-elected</li> <li>(5) Andrew Braddock (<span class="ptylightgreen">GRN</span>) re-elected</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act2024-post-election-results-thread/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">ACT2024 – Post-Election Results Thread</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8066" class="post-8066 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-a-c-t category-by-elections category-new-south-wales layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act-2024-election-and-epping-hornsby-and-pittwater-by-elections/" rel="bookmark">ACT 2024 Election and Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater By-elections</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-19T12:39:38+11:00" content="2024-10-19">October 19, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-19T12:41:59+11:00">October 19, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>Here’s my usual election day post to deal with the flood of google searches that end up being directed to my site on election day.</p> <p>As usual, I am not blogging here. I will be on ABC Television doing live coverage of the ACT election with an update or two on the three NSW by-elections.</p> <p>There will be a full results service on the ABC elections site for both the ACT and the by-elections. For links see inside the post.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act-2024-election-and-epping-hornsby-and-pittwater-by-elections/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">ACT 2024 Election and Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater By-elections</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8056" class="post-8056 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-australia-elections-federal category-federal-elections category-redistribution tag-australia tag-elections tag-federal tag-northern-territory tag-nt tag-redistributions layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-draft-northern-territory-boundaries/" rel="bookmark">2024 Federal Redistributions – Draft Northern Territory Boundaries</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-18T14:38:50+11:00" content="2024-10-18">October 18, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-11-22T11:12:34+11:00">November 22, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(<strong>22 November</strong> – no objections were received for the draft boundaries and they have been adopted as final and will be used at the 2025 Federal election.)</p> <p>The final electoral jigsaw piece has been put in place for next year’s Federal election.</p> <p>Redistributions have been finalised for NSW, WA and Victoria. Today has seen the release of draft boundaries for the Northern Territory.</p> <p>These draft boundaries are now open for public comment, but as the Redistribution Commissioner’s proposal is the same as every submission suggested, the final stage of the redistribution will simply rubber stamp the draft proposal.</p> <p>If you want to make a submission or read more detail on the redistribution, you can do so through the <a href="https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/2024/nt/proposed-redistribution/">AEC’s NT Redistribution site</a>.</p> <p>In this post I’ll just give a brief summary of the change and estimated new margins for Lingiari and Solomon.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-draft-northern-territory-boundaries/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">2024 Federal Redistributions – Draft Northern Territory Boundaries</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8050" class="post-8050 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-convenience-voting category-queensland layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld-2024-tracking-the-early-and-postal-vote/" rel="bookmark">QLD 2024 – Tracking the Early and Postal Vote</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-17T13:39:12+11:00" content="2024-10-17">October 17, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-25T14:27:29+11:00">October 25, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(Post first published Thursday 17 October but will be updated each daily with 2024 figures.)</p> <p>(UPDATED Friday 25 October 12:30pm – with one day of pre-polling to go. Totals now at 1,385,588 early votes representing 37.6% of enrolment have been taken, up from 33.2% to the same day in 2020. Applications for postal votes have closed and the rate of applications is down from 26.8% in 2020 to 18.8% in 2024. So far 33.9% of postal votes have been returned.)</p> <p>The 2020 Queensland election was conducted in the first year of Covid restrictions. As a Covid measure, the Electoral Commission Queensland (ECQ) allowed an extended period for postal vote applications. The period for applications in 2024 reverted to usual period starting with the writ issue in early October. Postal vote applications close in Queensland on the day that pre-poll voting starts, two weeks before polling day.</p> <p>The chart below shows that there is a small increase in pre-poll voting to date, perhaps reflecting the lower rate of postal voting. Further information inside the post.</p> <p><iframe title="QLD 2020 - Accumulated Early Vote % by Day" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-iVgdE" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iVgdE/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="440" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld-2024-tracking-the-early-and-postal-vote/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">QLD 2024 – Tracking the Early and Postal Vote</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8035" class="post-8035 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-a-c-t category-convenience-voting tag-act tag-early-voting tag-elections layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act-2024-tracking-the-early-vote/" rel="bookmark">ACT 2024 – Tracking the Early Vote</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-11T09:20:21+11:00" content="2024-10-11">October 11, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-19T12:27:14+11:00">October 19, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>(Post first published Friday 11 October but will be updated each daily with 2024 figures.)</p> <p><strong>Final Totals</strong> – 144,863 pre-poll votes have been cast representing 45.5% of enrolment. That will end up being just over 50% of all votes given a 2020 turnout of 89.2%. The final day of pre-polling took 25,437 votes, slightly down on the final day in 2020, perhaps due to several downpours during the day. Graphs of the final numbers are below and inside the post.</p> <p>The 2020 ACT election was conducted in the first year of Covid restrictions. As a Covid measure, the ACT Electoral Commission removed all restrictions on early voting, increased the number of early voting centres and opened early voting centres on Saturday and Sunday.</p> <p>As a result the rate of early voting in 2020 was more than double the 2016 rate. As a percentage of enrolment, early voting rose from 29.5% to 63.5%. As a percentage of final votes cast, the rate increased from 33.6% to 69.9%.</p> <p>For the 2024 election, unrestricted access to early voting remains in place, but the period for pre-poll voting has been reduced from three weeks to two, from 19 days to 11. The number of early voting centres has also been reduced from 15 to 11.</p> <p>As the chart below shows, the late start for early voting means that the numbers are well down on the same period in 2020. But even with a shorter early voting period, rates are well ahead of the numbers for the longer early voting period in 2016.</p> <p><iframe title="2024 ACT Election - Accumulated Pre-Poll Votes" aria-label="Interactive line chart" id="datawrapper-chart-KVG13" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KVG13/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="479" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}(); </script><br /> <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/act-2024-tracking-the-early-vote/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">ACT 2024 – Tracking the Early Vote</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> <article id="post-8028" class="post-8028 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-uncategorized layout-default col-12 nv-non-grid-article "> <div class="article-content-col"> <div class="content"> <div class="non-grid-content default-layout-content"><h2 class="blog-entry-title entry-title"><a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-candidates-and-parties-contesting-election/" rel="bookmark">QLD2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election</a></h2><ul class="nv-meta-list"><li class="meta author vcard"><span class="author-name fn">by <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/author/antony-greenfroggy-com-au/" title="Posts by Antony Green" rel="author">Antony Green</a></span></li><li class="meta date posted-on"><time class="entry-date published" datetime="2024-10-08T17:57:07+11:00" content="2024-10-08">October 8, 2024</time><time class="updated" datetime="2024-10-08T19:26:44+11:00">October 8, 2024</time></li></ul><div class="excerpt-wrap entry-summary"><p>A total of 525 candidates have nominated for the 2024 Queensland, second only to 597 in 2020 as the most candidates to contest a Queensland election.</p> <p>The Labor Party, LNP, Greens and One Nation have nominated for every electorates, followed by Family First with 59 candidates and Legalise Cannabis 29. Full breakdown by party inside the post.</p> <p>More to come and I will also post a link here when I have all candidates posted on the ABC website.<a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/qld2024-candidates-and-parties-contesting-election/" class="" rel="bookmark">Read More »<span class="screen-reader-text">QLD2024 – Candidates and Parties Contesting Election</span></a></p> </div></div> </div> </div> </article> </div> <div class="w-100"></div> </div> <div class="nv-sidebar-wrap col-sm-12 nv-right blog-sidebar " > <aside id="secondary" role="complementary"> <div id="email-subscribers-form-1" class="widget widget_email-subscribers-form"><div class="emaillist" id="es_form_f1-n1"><form action="/2024/10/#es_form_f1-n1" method="post" class="es_subscription_form es_shortcode_form es_ajax_subscription_form" id="es_subscription_form_67c06f954e065" data-source="ig-es" data-form-id="1"><div class="es-field-wrap"><label>Name*<br /><input type="text" name="esfpx_name" class="ig_es_form_field_name" 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