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id="ca-edit" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit" data-event-name="menu.edit" data-mw="interface" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet edit-page menu__item--page-actions-edit"> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>Edit</span> </a> </li> </ul> </nav>  <div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="content"> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><script>function mfTempOpenSection(id){var block=document.getElementById("mf-section-"+id);block.className+=" open-block";block.previousSibling.className+=" open-block";}</script><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><section class="mf-section-0" id="mf-section-0"> <p> An <b>electoral swing analysis</b> (or <b>swing</b>) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one <a href="/wiki/Election" title="Election">election</a> to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a <a href="/wiki/Two-party_system" title="Two-party system">two-party system</a>. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic. </p><p>A swing is particularly useful for analysing change in voter support over time, or as a tool for predicting the outcome of elections in <a href="/wiki/Constituency" class="mw-redirect" title="Constituency">constituency</a>-based systems. Swing is also usefully deployed when analysing the shift in voter intentions revealed by (political) <a href="/wiki/Opinion_poll" title="Opinion poll">opinion polls</a> or to compare polls concisely which may rely on differing samples and on markedly different swings and therefore predict extraneous results.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div id="toc" class="toc" role="navigation" aria-labelledby="mw-toc-heading"><input type="checkbox" role="button" id="toctogglecheckbox" class="toctogglecheckbox" style="display:none"><div class="toctitle" lang="en" dir="ltr"><h2 id="mw-toc-heading">Contents</h2><span class="toctogglespan"><label class="toctogglelabel" for="toctogglecheckbox"></label></span></div> <ul> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="#Calculation"><span class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Calculation</span></a> <ul> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-2"><a href="#One-party_swing"><span class="tocnumber">1.1</span> <span class="toctext">One-party swing</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-3"><a href="#Two-party_swing"><span class="tocnumber">1.2</span> <span class="toctext">Two-party swing</span></a></li> </ul> </li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-4"><a href="#Australia"><span class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Australia</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-5"><a href="#United_Kingdom"><span class="tocnumber">3</span> <span class="toctext">United Kingdom</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-6"><a href="#United_States"><span class="tocnumber">4</span> <span class="toctext">United States</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-7"><a href="#Three_party_swing_or_greater"><span class="tocnumber">5</span> <span class="toctext">Three party swing or greater</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-8"><a href="#See_also"><span class="tocnumber">6</span> <span class="toctext">See also</span></a></li> <li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-9"><a href="#Notes_and_references"><span class="tocnumber">7</span> <span class="toctext">Notes and references</span></a></li> </ul> </div> </section><div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(1)"><span class="indicator mf-icon mf-icon-expand mf-icon--small"></span><h2 id="Calculation">Calculation</h2><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Calculation" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div><section class="mf-section-1 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-1"> <p>The swing is calculated by comparing the percentage of the vote in a particular election to the percentage of the vote belonging to the same party or candidate at the previous election. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="One-party_swing">One-party swing</h3><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: One-party swing" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div> <p>One-party swing (in <a href="/wiki/Percentage_point" title="Percentage point">percentage points</a>) = Percentage of vote in current election − percentage of vote in previous election </p><p>For example, if a party had 41% of the vote in the previous election, and has 51% of the vote in the current election, the swing is 10 percentage points in their favour. This could be reported as +10 points. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Two-party_swing">Two-party swing</h3><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Two-party swing" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div> <p>Two-party swing is calculated by taking the sum of the one-party swings of each party, then dividing by two.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In many nation states' media, including in <a href="/wiki/Australia" title="Australia">Australia</a> and the <a href="/wiki/United_Kingdom" title="United Kingdom">United Kingdom</a>, swing is normally expressed in terms of two parties. This practice is most useful where most governments tend to be from an existing <a href="/wiki/Two-party_system" title="Two-party system">two-party system</a>, and is sometimes used to try to predict the outcome of elections in constituency-based systems where different <a href="/wiki/Parliamentary_seat" class="mw-redirect" title="Parliamentary seat">seats</a> are held with different previous levels of support. </p><p>An assumption underlies extrapolated national calculations: that all districts will experience the same swing as shown in a poll or in a place's results. The advantage of this swing is the fact that the loss of support for one party will in most cases be accompanied by smaller or bigger gain in support for the other, but both figures are averaged into one. Employing the two assumptions allows the analyst to compute an <a href="/wiki/Mackerras_pendulum" title="Mackerras pendulum">electoral pendulum</a>, predicting how many (and which) seats will change hands given a particular swing, and what size uniform swing would therefore bring about a change of government.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> </section><div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(2)"><span class="indicator mf-icon mf-icon-expand mf-icon--small"></span><h2 id="Australia">Australia</h2><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Australia" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div><section class="mf-section-2 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-2"> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1236090951">.mw-parser-output .hatnote{font-style:italic}.mw-parser-output div.hatnote{padding-left:1.6em;margin-bottom:0.5em}.mw-parser-output .hatnote i{font-style:normal}.mw-parser-output .hatnote+link+.hatnote{margin-top:-0.5em}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .hatnote{display:none!important}}</style><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Swing_(Australian_politics)" title="Swing (Australian politics)">Swing (Australian politics)</a></div> <p>In <a href="/wiki/Australia" title="Australia">Australia</a>, the term "swing" refers to the change in the performance of a political party or candidate in an <a href="/wiki/Election" title="Election">election</a> or opinion poll. As Australia uses the <a href="/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting" title="Instant-runoff voting">preferential voting</a> system, swing can be expressed in terms of the primary vote (first preference vote), or in terms of the two-party-preferred or two-candidate-preferred result, which may represent significantly different values due to preference flows; i.e. a 5% primary vote swing does not necessarily represent an equivalent swing in TPP or TCP terms. </p> </section><div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(3)"><span class="indicator mf-icon mf-icon-expand mf-icon--small"></span><h2 id="United_Kingdom">United Kingdom</h2><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: United Kingdom" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div><section class="mf-section-3 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-3"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Swing_(United_Kingdom)" title="Swing (United Kingdom)">Swing (United Kingdom)</a></div> <p>In the UK, a two-party swing (averaged model) is generally used, which adds one party's increase in share of the vote (expressed as a percentage point) to the percentage-point fall of another party, and divides the total by two. </p><p>Thus, if Party One's vote rises by 4 points and Party Two's vote falls 5 points, the swing is 4.5 points (Party 2 to Party 1).<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> For disambiguation, suffixes such as: <b>(Con to Lab)</b> <b>(Lab to Lib Dem)</b> <b>(Lib Dem to Con)</b> must be added where three parties stand. Otherwise, a problem when deciding which swing is meant and which swing is best to publish arises where a lower party takes first or second, or where a party loses one of the top two places.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>n 1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Originating as a mathematical calculation for comparing the results of two constituencies,<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>n 2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> any of these figures can be used as an indication of the scale of voter change between any two political parties, as shown below for the <a href="/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election" title="2010 United Kingdom general election">2010 United Kingdom general election</a>: </p> <ul class="gallery mw-gallery-traditional center"> <li class="gallerybox" style="width: 155px"> <div class="thumb" style="width: 150px; height: 150px;"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg" class="mw-file-description" title="Labour to Conservative swing"><noscript><img alt="Labour to Conservative swing" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg/120px-2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg.png" decoding="async" width="120" height="117" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="1020" data-file-height="996"></noscript><span class="lazy-image-placeholder" style="width: 120px;height: 117px;" data-src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg/120px-2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg.png" data-alt="Labour to Conservative swing" data-width="120" data-height="117" data-srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg/180px-2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3a/2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg/240px-2010UKElectionLabConSwing.svg.png 2x" data-class="mw-file-element"> </span></a></span></div> <div class="gallerytext">Labour to Conservative swing</div> </li> <li class="gallerybox" style="width: 155px"> <div class="thumb" style="width: 150px; height: 150px;"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg" class="mw-file-description" title="Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing"><noscript><img alt="Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg/120px-2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg.png" decoding="async" width="120" height="117" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="1020" data-file-height="996"></noscript><span class="lazy-image-placeholder" style="width: 120px;height: 117px;" data-src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg/120px-2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg.png" data-alt="Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing" data-width="120" data-height="117" data-srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg/180px-2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b0/2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg/240px-2010UKElectionLDConSwing.svg.png 2x" data-class="mw-file-element"> </span></a></span></div> <div class="gallerytext">Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing</div> </li> <li class="gallerybox" style="width: 155px"> <div class="thumb" style="width: 150px; height: 150px;"><span typeof="mw:File"><a href="/wiki/File:2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg" class="mw-file-description" title="Labour to Liberal Democrat swing"><noscript><img alt="Labour to Liberal Democrat swing" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg/120px-2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg.png" decoding="async" width="120" height="117" class="mw-file-element" data-file-width="1020" data-file-height="996"></noscript><span class="lazy-image-placeholder" style="width: 120px;height: 117px;" data-src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg/120px-2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg.png" data-alt="Labour to Liberal Democrat swing" data-width="120" data-height="117" data-srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg/180px-2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg/240px-2010UKElectionLabLDSwing.svg.png 2x" data-class="mw-file-element"> </span></a></span></div> <div class="gallerytext">Labour to Liberal Democrat swing</div> </li> </ul> </section><div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(4)"><span class="indicator mf-icon mf-icon-expand mf-icon--small"></span><h2 id="United_States">United States</h2><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: United States" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div><section class="mf-section-4 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-4"> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236090951"><div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Main article: <a href="/wiki/Swing_state" title="Swing state">Swing state</a></div> <p><b>Swing</b> in the <a href="/wiki/United_States" title="United States">United States</a> can refer to <a href="/wiki/Swing_state" title="Swing state">swing states</a>, those states that are known to shift an outcome between <a href="/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)" title="Democratic Party (United States)">Democrats</a> and <a href="/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)" title="Republican Party (United States)">Republican</a> parties, equivalent on a local level to <a href="/wiki/Marginal_seat" title="Marginal seat">marginal seats</a>. By contrast, a non-swing state is the direct equivalent of a <a href="/wiki/Safe_seat" title="Safe seat">safe seat</a> as it rarely changes in outcome. The extent of change in political outcome is heavily influenced by the <a href="/wiki/Voting_system" class="mw-redirect" title="Voting system">voting system</a> in use.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>n 3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> </section><div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(5)"><span class="indicator mf-icon mf-icon-expand mf-icon--small"></span><h2 id="Three_party_swing_or_greater">Three party swing or greater</h2><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Three party swing or greater" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div><section class="mf-section-5 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-5"> <p>Some websites provide a <a href="/wiki/Pie_chart" title="Pie chart">pie chart</a> based or column-based multi party <a href="/wiki/Swingometer" title="Swingometer">swingometer</a> where ± x%, ± x%, ± x% and so on is displayed or can be input for three parties (or more in more plural <a href="/wiki/Democracy" title="Democracy">democracies</a>). This tool or illustration provides likely outcomes wherever more than two <a href="/wiki/Political_party" title="Political party">political parties</a> have a significant influence on which politicians are elected.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In multiparty systems <a href="/wiki/Exit_polls" class="mw-redirect" title="Exit polls">exit polls</a> frequently include a question as to voting behavior in the last applicable election. Based on those exit polls "voter migration" (where vote gains for a specific party came from and losses of another went to) analyses are published and discussed in election coverage. </p> </section><div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(6)"><span class="indicator mf-icon mf-icon-expand mf-icon--small"></span><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: See also" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div><section class="mf-section-6 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-6"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Swing_vote" title="Swing vote">Swing vote</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Swingometer" title="Swingometer">Swingometer</a></li></ul> </section><div class="mw-heading mw-heading2 section-heading" onclick="mfTempOpenSection(7)"><span class="indicator mf-icon mf-icon-expand mf-icon--small"></span><h2 id="Notes_and_references">Notes and references</h2><span class="mw-editsection"> <a role="button" href="/w/index.php?title=Swing_(politics)&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Notes and references" class="cdx-button cdx-button--size-large cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--icon-only cdx-button--weight-quiet "> <span class="minerva-icon minerva-icon--edit"></span> <span>edit</span> </a> </span> </div><section class="mf-section-7 collapsible-block" id="mf-section-7"> <dl><dt>Notes</dt></dl> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">E.g. a <a href="/wiki/Liberal_Democrats_(UK)" title="Liberal Democrats (UK)">Liberal Democrat</a> drops from first to third place and a <a href="/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)" title="Conservative Party (UK)">Conservative Party</a> former runner-up wins to a <a href="/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)" title="Labour Party (UK)">Labour Party</a> runner-up who was in third place, here three interesting swings are relevant: Lib Dem-Con, Lib Dem-Lab and Lab-Con (and their opposite sign (+/-) equivalents for the opposite way swings).</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Britain, like the US, uses a <a href="/wiki/First-past-the-post" class="mw-redirect" title="First-past-the-post">first-past-the-post</a> <a href="/wiki/Voting_system" class="mw-redirect" title="Voting system">voting system</a> and where a new third party or independent candidate has a better or worse result (or stands or chooses not to) this calculation allows for a more understandable comparison between the parties which are of wider interest.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">As in the <a href="/wiki/United_Kingdom" title="United Kingdom">UK</a>, the US employs a <a href="/wiki/First-past-the-post" class="mw-redirect" title="First-past-the-post">first-past-the-post</a> voting system as its main voting system.</span> </li> </ol></div></div> <dl><dt>References</dt></dl> <link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239543626"><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-free.id-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Lock-green.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited.id-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration.id-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription.id-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg")right 0.1em center/9px no-repeat}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg")right 0.1em center/12px no-repeat}body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-free a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-limited a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-registration a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .id-lock-subscription a,body:not(.skin-timeless):not(.skin-minerva) .mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background-size:contain;padding:0 1em 0 0}.mw-parser-output .cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord_10errors.html">"Track Record: 2010 Errors"</a>. <i>www.electoralcalculus.co.uk</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=www.electoralcalculus.co.uk&rft.atitle=Track+Record%3A+2010+Errors&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.electoralcalculus.co.uk%2Ftrackrecord_10errors.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swingometer-map">"UK Polling Report Swingometer Map"</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=UK+Polling+Report+Swingometer+Map&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fukpollingreport.co.uk%2Fswingometer-map&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-2017-guide-swing-what-is-it-how-calculate-important-electoral-expert-conservatives-labour-party-a7707321.html">"Election 2017 guide: What is swing, how is it calculated and why is it important?"</a>. <i>The Independent</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+Independent&rft.atitle=Election+2017+guide%3A+What+is+swing%2C+how+is+it+calculated+and+why+is+it+important%3F&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Felection-2017-guide-swing-what-is-it-how-calculate-important-electoral-expert-conservatives-labour-party-a7707321.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02608/SN02608.pdf">"Electoral Swing"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. <i>researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk&rft.atitle=Electoral+Swing&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk%2Fdocuments%2FSN02608%2FSN02608.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html">"Electoral Calculus"</a>. <i>www.electoralcalculus.co.uk</i>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=www.electoralcalculus.co.uk&rft.atitle=Electoral+Calculus&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.electoralcalculus.co.uk%2Fhomepage.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-6">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170612082424/http://www.bbc.co.uk/archive/swingometer/">"BBC Swingometer"</a>. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/archive/swingometer">the original</a> on 12 June 2017<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">25 December</span> 2019</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=BBC+Swingometer&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Farchive%2Fswingometer&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation news cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/vote_2005/basics/4415923.stm">"Your questions answered"</a>. 7 April 2005 – via news.bbc.co.uk.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Your+questions+answered&rft.date=2005-04-07&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbc.co.uk%2F2%2Fhi%2Fuk_news%2Fpolitics%2Fvote_2005%2Fbasics%2F4415923.stm&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/interactive/2010/apr/05/general-election-map-swingometer">"Election map and swingometer"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/The_Guardian" title="The Guardian">The Guardian</a></i>. 5 April 2010. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230522025832/https://www.theguardian.com/politics/interactive/2010/apr/05/general-election-map-swingometer">Archived</a> from the original on 22 May 2023.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+Guardian&rft.atitle=Election+map+and+swingometer&rft.date=2010-04-05&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Finteractive%2F2010%2Fapr%2F05%2Fgeneral-election-map-swingometer&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASwing+%28politics%29" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> </ol></div></div>    </section></div> <noscript><img src="https://login.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:CentralAutoLogin/start?type=1x1&mobile=1" alt="" width="1" height="1" style="border: none; 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