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</div> <div class="control"> <button class="button is-small is-link">Go</button> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <ol class="breathe-horizontal" start="1"> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.02808">arXiv:2001.02808</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.02808">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2001.02808">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab65f0">10.3847/1538-4357/ab65f0 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Evaluating Consecutive-Day Forecasting Patterns </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Park%2C+S">Sung-Hong Park</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Leka%2C+K+D">K. D. Leka</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kusano%2C+K">Kanya Kusano</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Andries%2C+J">Jesse Andries</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Barnes%2C+G">Graham Barnes</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bingham%2C+S">Suzy Bingham</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Delouille%2C+V">Veronique Delouille</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Falconer%2C+D">David Falconer</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Georgoulis%2C+M+K">Manolis K. Georgoulis</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kubo%2C+Y">Yuki Kubo</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+K">Kangjin Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+S">Sangwoo Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lobzin%2C+V">Vasily Lobzin</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mun%2C+J">JunChul Mun</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Murray%2C+S+A">Sophie A. Murray</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nageem%2C+T+A+M+H">Tarek A. M. Hamad Nageem</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Qahwaji%2C+R">Rami Qahwaji</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Sharpe%2C+M">Michael Sharpe</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steenburgh%2C+R+A">Rob A. Steenburgh</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steward%2C+G">Graham Steward</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Michael Terkildsen</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2001.02808v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multi-day per… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2001.02808v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multi-day periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods, and conversely, of correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event and event/no-event), and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day-1 remains high/low on day-2 even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 21 January, 2020; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 8 January, 2020; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> January 2020. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">33 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.08663">arXiv:1907.08663</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.08663">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1907.08663">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1907.08663">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics">astro-ph.IM</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Applied Physics">physics.app-ph</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Application Usability Levels: A Framework for Tracking Project Product Progress </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Halford%2C+A+J">Alexa J. Halford</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kellerman%2C+A+C">Adam C. Kellerman</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Garcia-Sage%2C+K">Katherine Garcia-Sage</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Klenzing%2C+J">Jeffrey Klenzing</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Carter%2C+B+A">Brett A. Carter</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McGranaghan%2C+R+M">Ryan M. McGranaghan</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Guild%2C+T">Timothy Guild</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Cid%2C+C">Consuelo Cid</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Henney%2C+C+J">Carl J. Henney</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Ganushkina%2C+N+Y">Natalia Y. Ganushkina</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Burrell%2C+A+G">Angeline G. Burrell</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Mike Terkildsen</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Welling%2C+D+T">Daniel T. Welling</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Murray%2C+S+A">Sophie A. Murray</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Leka%2C+K+D">K. D. Leka</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCollough%2C+J+P">James P. McCollough</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Thompson%2C+B+J">Barbara J. Thompson</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Pulkkinen%2C+A">Antti Pulkkinen</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Fung%2C+S+F">Shing F. Fung</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bingham%2C+S">Suzy Bingham</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bisi%2C+M+M">Mario M. Bisi</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Liemohn%2C+M+W">Michael W. Liemohn</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Walsh%2C+B+M">Brian M. Walsh</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Morley%2C+S+K">Steven K. Morley</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.08663v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL)… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.08663v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1907.08663v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.08663v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> The space physics community continues to grow and become both more interdisciplinary and more intertwined with commercial and government operations. This has created a need for a framework to easily identify what projects can be used for specific applications and how close the tool is to routine autonomous or on-demand implementation and operation. We propose the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework and publicizing AULs to help the community quantify the progress of successful applications, metrics, and validation efforts. This framework will also aid the scientific community by supplying the type of information needed to build off of previously published work and publicizing the applications and requirements needed by the user communities. In this paper, we define the AUL framework, outline the milestones required for progression to higher AULs, and provide example projects utilizing the AUL framework. This work has been completed as part of the activities of the Assessment of Understanding and Quantifying Progress working group which is part of the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.08663v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1907.08663v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 19 July, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> July 2019. </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.02909">arXiv:1907.02909</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.02909">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1907.02909">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1907.02909">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics">astro-ph.IM</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability">physics.data-an</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab2e11">10.3847/1538-4357/ab2e11 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. III. Systematic Behaviors of Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Leka%2C+K+D">K. D. Leka</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Park%2C+S">Sung-Hong Park</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kusano%2C+K">Kanya Kusano</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Andries%2C+J">Jesse Andries</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Barnes%2C+G">Graham Barnes</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bingham%2C+S">Suzy Bingham</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Delouille%2C+V">Veronique Delouille</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Falconer%2C+D">David Falconer</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Georgoulis%2C+M+K">Manolis K. Georgoulis</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kubo%2C+Y">Yuki Kubo</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+K">Kangjin Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+S">Sangwoo Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lobzin%2C+V">Vasily Lobzin</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mun%2C+J">JunChul Mun</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Murray%2C+S+A">Sophie A. Murray</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nageem%2C+T+A+M+H">Tarek A. M. Hamad Nageem</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Qahwaji%2C+R">Rami Qahwaji</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Sharpe%2C+M">Michael Sharpe</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steenburgh%2C+R">Rob Steenburgh</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steward%2C+G">Graham Steward</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Michael Terkildsen</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02909v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02909v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human "forecaster in the loop"; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 5 July, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> July 2019. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">23 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.02905">arXiv:1907.02905</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.02905">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1907.02905">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1907.02905">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics">astro-ph.IM</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability">physics.data-an</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12">10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. II. Benchmarks, Metrics and Performance Results for Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Leka%2C+K+D">K. D. Leka</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Park%2C+S">Sung-Hong Park</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kusano%2C+K">Kanya Kusano</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Andries%2C+J">Jesse Andries</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Barnes%2C+G">Graham Barnes</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bingham%2C+S">Suzy Bingham</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Delouille%2C+V">Veronique Delouille</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Falconer%2C+D">David Falconer</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Georgoulis%2C+M+K">Manolis K. Georgoulis</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kubo%2C+Y">Yuki Kubo</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+K">Kangjin Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+S">Sangwoo Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lobzin%2C+V">Vasily Lobzin</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mun%2C+J">JunChul Mun</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Murray%2C+S+A">Sophie A. Murray</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nageem%2C+T+A+M+H">Tarek A. M. Hamad Nageem</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Qahwaji%2C+R">Rami Qahwaji</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Sharpe%2C+M">Michael Sharpe</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steenburgh%2C+R">Rob Steenburgh</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steward%2C+G">Graham Steward</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Michael Terkildsen</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02905v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02905v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al, 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to - for the first time - directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the "no skill" level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today's performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 5 July, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> July 2019. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">26 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1503.06135">arXiv:1503.06135</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.06135">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1503.06135">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1503.06135">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Earth and Planetary Astrophysics">astro-ph.EP</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023">10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Schrijver%2C+C+J">Carolus J. Schrijver</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kauristie%2C+K">Kirsti Kauristie</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Aylward%2C+A+D">Alan D. Aylward</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Denardini%2C+C+M">Clezio M. Denardini</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gibson%2C+S+E">Sarah E. Gibson</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Glover%2C+A">Alexi Glover</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gopalswamy%2C+N">Nat Gopalswamy</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Grande%2C+M">Manuel Grande</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Hapgood%2C+M">Mike Hapgood</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Heynderickx%2C+D">Daniel Heynderickx</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Jakowski%2C+N">Norbert Jakowski</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kalegaev%2C+V+V">Vladimir V. Kalegaev</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lapenta%2C+G">Giovanni Lapenta</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Linker%2C+J+A">Jon A. Linker</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Liu%2C+S">Siqing Liu</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mandrini%2C+C+H">Cristina H. Mandrini</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mann%2C+I+R">Ian R. Mann</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nagatsuma%2C+T">Tsutomu Nagatsuma</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nandi%2C+D">Dibyendu Nandi</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Obara%2C+T">Takahiro Obara</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=O%27Brien%2C+T+P">T. Paul O'Brien</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Onsager%2C+T">Terrance Onsager</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Opgenoorth%2C+H+J">Hermann J. Opgenoorth</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Michael Terkildsen</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Valladares%2C+C+E">Cesar E. Valladares</a> , et al. (1 additional authors not shown) </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1503.06135v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coord… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1503.06135v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1503.06135v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1503.06135v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...] <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1503.06135v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1503.06135v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 20 March, 2015; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> March 2015. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures)</span> </p> </li> </ol> <div class="is-hidden-tablet">  <span class="help" style="display: inline-block;"><a href="https://github.com/arXiv/arxiv-search/releases">Search v0.5.6 released 2020-02-24</a>  </span> </div> </div> </main> 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