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</div> <div class="control"> <button class="button is-small is-link">Go</button> </div> </div> </form> </div> </div> <ol class="breathe-horizontal" start="1"> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.02808">arXiv:2001.02808</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.02808">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/2001.02808">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab65f0">10.3847/1538-4357/ab65f0 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. IV. Evaluating Consecutive-Day Forecasting Patterns </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Park%2C+S">Sung-Hong Park</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Leka%2C+K+D">K. D. Leka</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kusano%2C+K">Kanya Kusano</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Andries%2C+J">Jesse Andries</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Barnes%2C+G">Graham Barnes</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bingham%2C+S">Suzy Bingham</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Delouille%2C+V">Veronique Delouille</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Falconer%2C+D">David Falconer</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Georgoulis%2C+M+K">Manolis K. Georgoulis</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kubo%2C+Y">Yuki Kubo</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+K">Kangjin Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+S">Sangwoo Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lobzin%2C+V">Vasily Lobzin</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mun%2C+J">JunChul Mun</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Murray%2C+S+A">Sophie A. Murray</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nageem%2C+T+A+M+H">Tarek A. M. Hamad Nageem</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Qahwaji%2C+R">Rami Qahwaji</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Sharpe%2C+M">Michael Sharpe</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steenburgh%2C+R+A">Rob A. Steenburgh</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steward%2C+G">Graham Steward</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Michael Terkildsen</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2001.02808v2-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multi-day per… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="2001.02808v2-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multi-day periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods, and conversely, of correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event and event/no-event), and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day-1 remains high/low on day-2 even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('2001.02808v2-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 21 January, 2020; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">v1</span> submitted 8 January, 2020; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> January 2020. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">33 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.02909">arXiv:1907.02909</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.02909">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1907.02909">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1907.02909">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics">astro-ph.IM</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability">physics.data-an</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab2e11">10.3847/1538-4357/ab2e11 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. III. Systematic Behaviors of Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Leka%2C+K+D">K. D. Leka</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Park%2C+S">Sung-Hong Park</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kusano%2C+K">Kanya Kusano</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Andries%2C+J">Jesse Andries</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Barnes%2C+G">Graham Barnes</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bingham%2C+S">Suzy Bingham</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Delouille%2C+V">Veronique Delouille</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Falconer%2C+D">David Falconer</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Georgoulis%2C+M+K">Manolis K. Georgoulis</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kubo%2C+Y">Yuki Kubo</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+K">Kangjin Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+S">Sangwoo Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lobzin%2C+V">Vasily Lobzin</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mun%2C+J">JunChul Mun</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Murray%2C+S+A">Sophie A. Murray</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nageem%2C+T+A+M+H">Tarek A. M. Hamad Nageem</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Qahwaji%2C+R">Rami Qahwaji</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Sharpe%2C+M">Michael Sharpe</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steenburgh%2C+R">Rob Steenburgh</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steward%2C+G">Graham Steward</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Michael Terkildsen</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02909v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02909v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively compare the performance of today's operational solar flare forecasting facilities. Building upon Paper I of this series (Barnes et al. 2016), in Paper II (Leka et al. 2019) we described the participating methods for this latest comparison effort, the evaluation methodology, and presented quantitative comparisons. In this paper we focus on the behavior and performance of the methods when evaluated in the context of broad implementation differences. Acknowledging the short testing interval available and the small number of methods available, we do find that forecast performance: 1) appears to improve by including persistence or prior flare activity, region evolution, and a human "forecaster in the loop"; 2) is hurt by restricting data to disk-center observations; 3) may benefit from long-term statistics, but mostly when then combined with modern data sources and statistical approaches. These trends are arguably weak and must be viewed with numerous caveats, as discussed both here and in Paper II. Following this present work, we present in Paper IV a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors of both types (i.e., misses and false alarms; Park et al. 2019). Hence, most importantly, with this series of papers we demonstrate the techniques for facilitating comparisons in the interest of establishing performance-positive methodologies. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1907.02909v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 5 July, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> July 2019. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">23 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.02905">arXiv:1907.02905</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.02905">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1907.02905">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1907.02905">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics">astro-ph.IM</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability">physics.data-an</span> <span class="tag is-small is-grey tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Space Physics">physics.space-ph</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12">10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12 <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. II. Benchmarks, Metrics and Performance Results for Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Leka%2C+K+D">K. D. Leka</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Park%2C+S">Sung-Hong Park</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kusano%2C+K">Kanya Kusano</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Andries%2C+J">Jesse Andries</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Barnes%2C+G">Graham Barnes</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bingham%2C+S">Suzy Bingham</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Delouille%2C+V">Veronique Delouille</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Falconer%2C+D">David Falconer</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Georgoulis%2C+M+K">Manolis K. Georgoulis</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kubo%2C+Y">Yuki Kubo</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+K">Kangjin Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lee%2C+S">Sangwoo Lee</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Lobzin%2C+V">Vasily Lobzin</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Mun%2C+J">JunChul Mun</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Murray%2C+S+A">Sophie A. Murray</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Nageem%2C+T+A+M+H">Tarek A. M. Hamad Nageem</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Qahwaji%2C+R">Rami Qahwaji</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Sharpe%2C+M">Michael Sharpe</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steenburgh%2C+R">Rob Steenburgh</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Steward%2C+G">Graham Steward</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Terkildsen%2C+M">Michael Terkildsen</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02905v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1907.02905v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al, 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to - for the first time - directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the "no skill" level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today's performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1907.02905v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 5 July, 2019; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> July 2019. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">26 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.00919">arXiv:1805.00919</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.00919">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1805.00919">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1805.00919">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Flare Forecasting Using the Evolution of McIntosh Sunspot Classifications </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1805.00919v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time observations. Here, a new forecast method is presented based upon the 24-hr evolution in McIntosh classification of sunspot groups. Evolution-dependent… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1805.00919v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1805.00919v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1805.00919v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Most solar flares originate in sunspot groups, where magnetic field changes lead to energy build-up and release. However, few flare-forecasting methods use information of sunspot-group evolution, instead focusing on static point-in-time observations. Here, a new forecast method is presented based upon the 24-hr evolution in McIntosh classification of sunspot groups. Evolution-dependent $\geqslant$C1.0 and $\geqslant$M1.0 flaring rates are found from NOAA-numbered sunspot groups over December 1988 to June 1996 (Solar Cycle 22; SC22) before converting to probabilities assuming Poisson statistics. These flaring probabilities are used to generate operational forecasts for sunspot groups over July 1996 to December 2008 (SC23), with performance studied by verification metrics. Major findings are: i) considering Brier skill score (BSS) for $\geqslant$C1.0 flares, the evolution-dependent McIntosh-Poisson method ($\text{BSS}_{\text{evolution}}=0.09$) performs better than the static McIntosh-Poisson method ($\text{BSS}_{\text{static}} = -0.09$); ii) low BSS values arise partly from both methods over-forecasting SC23 flares from the SC22 rates, symptomatic of $\geqslant$C1.0 rates in SC23 being on average $\approx$80% of those in SC22 (with $\geqslant$M1.0 being $\approx$50%); iii) applying a bias-correction factor to reduce the SC22 rates used in forecasting SC23 flares yields modest improvement in skill relative to climatology for both methods ($\mathrm{BSS}^{\mathrm{corr}}_{\mathrm{static}} = 0.09$ and $\mathrm{BSS}^{\mathrm{corr}}_{\mathrm{evolution}} = 0.20$) and improved forecast reliability diagrams. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1805.00919v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1805.00919v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 2 May, 2018; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> May 2018. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">21 pages, 9 figures</span> </p> </li> <li class="arxiv-result"> <div class="is-marginless"> <p class="list-title is-inline-block"><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1607.00903">arXiv:1607.00903</a> <span> [<a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.00903">pdf</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/ps/1607.00903">ps</a>, <a href="https://arxiv.org/format/1607.00903">other</a>] </span> </p> <div class="tags is-inline-block"> <span class="tag is-small is-link tooltip is-tooltip-top" data-tooltip="Solar and Stellar Astrophysics">astro-ph.SR</span> </div> <div class="is-inline-block" style="margin-left: 0.5rem"> <div class="tags has-addons"> <span class="tag is-dark is-size-7">doi</span> <span class="tag is-light is-size-7"><a class="" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-016-0933-y">10.1007/s11207-016-0933-y <i class="fa fa-external-link" aria-hidden="true"></i></a></span> </div> </div> </div> <p class="title is-5 mathjax"> Flaring Rates and the Evolution of Sunspot Group McIntosh Classifications </p> <p class="authors"> <span class="search-hit">Authors:</span> <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=McCloskey%2C+A+E">Aoife E. McCloskey</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Gallagher%2C+P+T">Peter T. Gallagher</a>, <a href="/search/astro-ph?searchtype=author&query=Bloomfield%2C+D+S">D. Shaun Bloomfield</a> </p> <p class="abstract mathjax"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Abstract</span>: <span class="abstract-short has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1607.00903v1-abstract-short" style="display: inline;"> Sunspot groups are the main source of solar flares, with the energy to power them being supplied by magnetic-field evolution (e.g. flux emergence or twisting/shearing). To date, few studies have investigated the statistical relation between sunspot-group evolution and flaring, with none considering evolution in the McIntosh classification scheme. Here we present a statistical analysis of sunspot g… <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1607.00903v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'inline'; document.getElementById('1607.00903v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'none';">▽ More</a> </span> <span class="abstract-full has-text-grey-dark mathjax" id="1607.00903v1-abstract-full" style="display: none;"> Sunspot groups are the main source of solar flares, with the energy to power them being supplied by magnetic-field evolution (e.g. flux emergence or twisting/shearing). To date, few studies have investigated the statistical relation between sunspot-group evolution and flaring, with none considering evolution in the McIntosh classification scheme. Here we present a statistical analysis of sunspot groups from Solar Cycle 22, focusing on 24-hour changes in the three McIntosh classification components. Evolution-dependent >C1.0, >M1.0, and >X1.0 flaring rates are calculated, leading to the following results: (i) flaring rates become increasingly higher for greater degrees of upward evolution through the McIntosh classes, with the opposite found for downward evolution; (ii) the highest flaring rates are found for upward evolution from larger, more complex, classes (e.g. Zurich D- and E-classes evolving upward to F-class produce >C1.0 rates of 2.66 +/- 0.28 and 2.31 +/- 0.09 flares per 24 hours, respectively); (iii) increasingly complex classes give higher rates for all flare magnitudes, even when sunspot groups do not evolve over 24 hours. These results support the hypothesis that injection of magnetic energy by flux emergence (i.e. increasing in Zurich or compactness classes) leads to a higher frequency and magnitude of flaring. <a class="is-size-7" style="white-space: nowrap;" onclick="document.getElementById('1607.00903v1-abstract-full').style.display = 'none'; document.getElementById('1607.00903v1-abstract-short').style.display = 'inline';">△ Less</a> </span> </p> <p class="is-size-7"><span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Submitted</span> 4 July, 2016; <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">originally announced</span> July 2016. </p> <p class="comments is-size-7"> <span class="has-text-black-bis has-text-weight-semibold">Comments:</span> <span class="has-text-grey-dark mathjax">31 pages, 11 figures</span> </p> </li> </ol> <div class="is-hidden-tablet">  <span class="help" style="display: inline-block;"><a href="https://github.com/arXiv/arxiv-search/releases">Search v0.5.6 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