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Así funciona un sistema de alerta temprana ante inundaciones “imposibles”

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class="magazine"> <div class="image" style="background-image: url(https://images.theconversation.com/files/632137/original/file-20241114-23-5zn0dr.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;rect=60%2C573%2C6720%2C3360&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1356&amp;h=668&amp;fit=crop);"> <div class="placeholder-container" style="--aspect-ratio-percent:66.5625%;--background-color:#4c392b"><img alt="Imágenes del desastre causado por las inundaciones en Valencia debidas al paso de una dana el 29 de octubre." class="lazyloaded" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/632137/original/file-20241114-23-5zn0dr.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;rect=0%2C0%2C6720%2C4466&amp;q=20&amp;auto=format&amp;w=320&amp;fit=clip&amp;dpr=2&amp;usm=12&amp;cs=strip" data-id="632137" itemprop="image"></div> </div> <div class="wrapper"> <figcaption> Imágenes del desastre causado por las inundaciones en Valencia debidas al paso de una dana el 29 de octubre. <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/es/image-photo/valencia-spain-november-3-2024-images-2541379477">David Raw/Shutterstock</a></span> </figcaption> </div> <div class="magazine-title"> <div class="wrapper"> <header class="content-header-container grid-twelve large-grid-eleven"> <div> <div class="content-header-block"> <h1 class="legacy entry-title instapaper_title" itemprop="headline"> <strong> Así funciona un sistema de alerta temprana ante inundaciones “imposibles” </strong> </h1> </div> </div> <div class="timestamps"> <time datetime="2024-11-18T18:23:32Z" itemprop="datePublished" content="2024-11-18T18:23:32Z">Published: November 18, 2024 6.23pm GMT</time> </div> </header> </div> </div> </figure> <div class="wrapper"> <div class="content-sidebar grid-four large-grid-four grid-last"> <section class="content-authors"> <div class="content-authors-synopsis"> <a href="#" class="content-authors-toggle"> <i class="icon-caret-down"></i> <i class="icon-caret-up"></i> <span class="nobr">Joan Estrany</span>, <span class="nobr">Josep Fortesa</span>, <span class="nobr">Julián García Comendador</span>, <span class="nobr">Maurici Ruiz Pérez</span>, <span class="nobr">Miguel Tomás Burguera</span>, <em class="institution_name">Universitat de les Illes Balears</em> </a> </div> <div class="content-authors-group"> <h3 class="border">Authors</h3> <ol> <li class="vcard" id="author-612019" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> <a rel="author" itemprop="url" href="/profiles/joan-estrany-1219935"> <img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/avatars/1219935/width170/image-20221031-11-781iqe.jpg" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static/tc/author/width170_default-bea415b3a0223821a698f6e3f6d5ab99.jpg" itemprop="image"> <span class="fn author-name" itemprop="name"> Joan Estrany </span> </a> <p class="role"> Profesor Titular de Universidad de Geografía Física. Director del Observatori de Riscos Naturals i Emergències de les Illes Balears -RiscBal, Universitat de les Illes Balears </p> </li> <li class="vcard" id="author-612104" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> <a rel="author" itemprop="url" href="/profiles/josep-fortesa-1220167"> <img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/avatars/1220167/width170/file-20210323-21-5pilkb.jpg" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static/tc/author/width170_default-bea415b3a0223821a698f6e3f6d5ab99.jpg" itemprop="image"> <span class="fn author-name" itemprop="name"> Josep Fortesa </span> </a> <p class="role"> Coordinador científico-técnico de RiscBal - Doctor en Geografía Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears </p> </li> <li class="vcard" id="author-612103" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> <a rel="author" itemprop="url" href="/profiles/julian-garcia-comendador-1220175"> <img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/avatars/1220175/width170/image-20230501-24-pcvgyp.jpg" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static/tc/author/width170_default-bea415b3a0223821a698f6e3f6d5ab99.jpg" itemprop="image"> <span class="fn author-name" itemprop="name"> Julián García Comendador </span> </a> <p class="role"> Profesor Titular Laboral. Área de Geografía Física del departamento de Geografía de la Universitat de les Illes Balears - UIB. Investigador Consolidado del Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares - RiscBal, Universitat de les Illes Balears </p> </li> <li class="vcard" id="author-612105" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> <a rel="author" itemprop="url" href="/profiles/maurici-ruiz-perez-1392185"> <img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/avatars/1392185/width170/file-20221110-10693-sy3wdp.jpg" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static/tc/author/width170_default-bea415b3a0223821a698f6e3f6d5ab99.jpg" itemprop="image"> <span class="fn author-name" itemprop="name"> Maurici Ruiz Pérez </span> </a> <p class="role"> Profesor titular de universidad, Universitat de les Illes Balears </p> </li> <li class="vcard" id="author-612924" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"> <a rel="author" itemprop="url" href="/profiles/miguel-tomas-burguera-2260834"> <img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/avatars/2260834/width170/file-20241114-21-41btb.jpg" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static/tc/author/width170_default-bea415b3a0223821a698f6e3f6d5ab99.jpg" itemprop="image"> <span class="fn author-name" itemprop="name"> Miguel Tomás Burguera </span> </a> <p class="role"> Miembro investigador del Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares, Universitat de les Illes Balears </p> </li> </ol> </div> </section> <section class="content-disclosure-statement"> <h3 class="border">Disclosure statement</h3> <p><span>Joan Estrany es el Investigador Principal (IP) del Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares - RiscBal, unidad de investigación consolidada de análisis y observación sistemática impulsada por la Universitat de les Illes Balears con la participación y financiación de la Dirección General de Emergencias del Govern de les Illes Balears, entre otros. Este observatorio tiene como objetivo principal la creación de un sistema de alerta temprana y la gestión de emergencias frente a riesgos naturales, contribuyendo a mejorar la seguridad y la resiliencia en el territorio balear.</span></p> <p><span>Josep Fortesa recibe fondos de la Fundació Universitat Empresa de les Illes Balears y es miembro investigador del Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares - RiscBal, unidad de investigación consolidada de análisis y observación sistemática impulsada por la Universitat de les Illes Balears con la participación y financiación de la Dirección General de Emergencias del Govern de les Illes Balears, entre otros. Este observatorio tiene como objetivo principal la creación de un sistema de alerta temprana y la gestión de emergencias frente a riesgos naturales, contribuyendo a mejorar la seguridad y la resiliencia en el territorio balear.</span></p> <p><span>Julián García-Comendador es Investigador Consolidado del Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares - RiscBal, unidad de investigación consolidada de análisis y observación sistemática impulsada por la Universitat de les Illes Balears con la participación y financiación de la Dirección General de Emergencias del Govern de les Illes Balears, entre otros. Este observatorio tiene como objetivo principal la creación de un sistema de alerta temprana y la gestión de emergencias frente a riesgos naturales, contribuyendo a mejorar la seguridad y la resiliencia en el territorio balear.</span></p> <p><span>Maurici Ruiz Pérez es Investigador Consolidado del Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares - RiscBal, un grupo consolidado de análisis y observación sistemática impulsado por la Universitat de les Illes Balears con la participación y financiación de la Dirección General de Emergencias del Govern de les Illes Balears, entre otros. Este observatorio tiene como objetivo principal la creación de un sistema de alerta temprana y la gestión de emergencias frente a riesgos naturales, contribuyendo a mejorar la seguridad y la resiliencia en el territorio balear.</span></p> <p><span>Miguel Tomás Burguera recibe fondos de la Fundació Universitat Empresa de les Illes Balears y es miembro investigador del Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares - RiscBal, unidad de investigación consolidada de análisis y observación sistemática impulsada por la Universitat de les Illes Balears con la participación y financiación de la Dirección General de Emergencias del Govern de les Illes Balears, entre otros. Este observatorio tiene como objetivo principal la creación de un sistema de alerta temprana y la gestión de emergencias frente a riesgos naturales, contribuyendo a mejorar la seguridad y la resiliencia en el territorio balear</span></p> </section> <section class="content-partners"> <h3 class="border">Partners</h3> <p class="disclosure-logo clearfix"><a class="logo" href="/institutions/universitat-de-les-illes-balears-4160"><picture><source srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/partners/1364/logos/logo-1583144486.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=170&amp;h=170" media="(min-width:600px)"></source><img alt="Universitat de les Illes Balears" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAD/ACwAAAAAAQABAAACADs%3D" /></picture></a></p> <p class="funding-statement"><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/universitat-de-les-illes-balears-4160">Universitat de les Illes Balears</a> provides funding as a member of The Conversation ES.</p> <p><a href="/global/partners">View all partners</a></p> </section> <section class="slot" data-id="16"></section> </div> <div class="grid-twelve large-grid-eleven"> <div class="top"> <aside class="grid-two content-social-distribution"> <div class="email"> <a class="email-button" data-id="243624" target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="mailto:?subject=As%C3%AD%20funciona%20un%20sistema%20de%20alerta%20temprana%20ante%20inundaciones%20%E2%80%9Cimposibles%E2%80%9D%20%E2%80%94%20The%20Conversation&amp;body=Hi.%20I%20found%20an%20article%20that%20you%20might%20like%3A%20%22As%C3%AD%20funciona%20un%20sistema%20de%20alerta%20temprana%20ante%20inundaciones%20%E2%80%9Cimposibles%E2%80%9D%22%20%E2%80%94%20https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Fasi-funciona-un-sistema-de-alerta-temprana-ante-inundaciones-imposibles-243624"><i class="icon-email"></i> <span>Email</span></a> </div> <div class="twitter"> <a class="twitter-button" 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href="http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&amp;source=The+Conversation&amp;summary=El+concepto+%5B%E2%80%9Cinundaciones+imposibles%E2%80%9D%5D%28https%3A%2F%2Fhess.copernicus.org%2Farticles%2F28%2F2603%2F2024%2F%29+describe+episodios+de+inundaci%C3%B3n+que+superan+registros+previos+y+se+perciben+socialmente+como+totalmente+...&amp;title=As%C3%AD+funciona+un+sistema+de+alerta+temprana+ante+inundaciones+%E2%80%9Cimposibles%E2%80%9D&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2Fasi-funciona-un-sistema-de-alerta-temprana-ante-inundaciones-imposibles-243624%3Futm_source%3Dlinkedin%26utm_medium%3Dbylinelinkedinbutton"><i class="icon-linkedin"></i> <span>LinkedIn</span></a> </div> <div class="whatsapp"> <a class="whatsapp-button" data-href="https://theconversation.com/asi-funciona-un-sistema-de-alerta-temprana-ante-inundaciones-imposibles-243624" data-action="share/whatsapp/share" data-id="243624" target="_blank" rel="noopener" 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entry-content instapaper_body " itemprop="articleBody"> <p>El concepto <a href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/2603/2024/">“inundaciones imposibles”</a> describe episodios de inundación que superan registros previos y se perciben socialmente como totalmente improbables. Sin embargo, la ciencia nunca cataloga como “imposible” ningún episodio cuando hay un riesgo, por muy excepcional que pueda considerarse. Obviar la posibilidad de ocurrencia de este tipo de fenómenos puede provocar situaciones para las que la sociedad no está preparada. </p> <p>Estas catástrofes se deben a diferentes tipos de causas:</p> <ul> <li><p>Causas <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S004896971834871X">físicas</a>: variación de uso del suelo, intervenciones hidráulicas, humedad del suelo, intensidad de precipitación.</p></li> <li><p>Causas <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-024-00186-5">psicológicas</a>: desconocimiento del riesgo, falsa sensación de seguridad.</p></li> <li><p>Causas <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wat2.1418">socioeconómicas</a>: aplazamiento de la aplicación de medidas de mitigación de inundaciones por subestimación del riesgo en periodos en los que no se producen y sobrestimación después de una inundación. </p></li> </ul> <figure class="align-center zoomable"> <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><div class="placeholder-container" style="--aspect-ratio-percent:56.233421750663126%;--background-color:#29492f"><img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" data-srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632129/original/file-20241114-15-qzygdt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></div></a> <figcaption> <span class="caption"></span> </figcaption> </figure> <figure class="align-center zoomable"> <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><div class="placeholder-container" style="--aspect-ratio-percent:56.233421750663126%;--background-color:#273754"><img alt="Imágenes de Satélite donde se aprecian las inundaciones causadas por la dana en Valencia" class="lazyload" data-src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" data-srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/632130/original/file-20241114-15-qe3irl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></div></a> <figcaption> <span class="caption">Imágenes de satélite de antes (arriba) y después (abajo) de las riadas e inundaciones causadas por la dana del 29 de octubre en Valencia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.esa.int/Space_in_Member_States/Spain/Inundaciones_devastadoras_en_Espana_vistas_por_satelite">ESA</a></span> </figcaption> </figure> <h2>Soluciones locales y basadas en la naturaleza</h2> <p>En este contexto, es ineludible el trabajo interdisciplinar e interadministrativo para abordar este reto, en el que planificación territorial, tecnología, <a href="https://news.tempest.earth/flash-flood-preparedness">educación</a> y <a href="https://theconversation.com/ante-un-riesgo-natural-la-gente-no-solo-necesita-informacion-sino-tambien-formacion-242648">formación</a> deben ser los pilares en la <a href="https://www.miteco.gob.es/es/agua/temas/gestion-de-los-riesgos-de-inundacion/idi-inundaciones/estudios-en-gobernanza.html">gobernanza sobre el riesgo de inundación</a>. </p> <p>La <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/03091333231217881">geografía</a>, como ciencia que analiza el territorio, debe desempeñar un papel sustancial aplicando <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00343404.2024.2387140?af=R">soluciones locales</a> y <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/risa.14118">basadas en la naturaleza</a> para la prevención o mitigación de inundaciones. </p> <p>Las soluciones locales son aquellas adaptadas a las características particulares de la sociedad, su economía y entorno físico e involucrando a la totalidad de la comunidad para mitigar riesgos, mejorar su resiliencia y fomentar su desarrollo socioeconómico. Por su parte, las soluciones basadas en la naturaleza son estrategias que utilizan los procesos naturales para reducir riesgos de inundación utilizando determinadas características ecosistémicas como amortiguadores frente a eventos extremos.</p> <p>En regiones mediterráneas, la ciencia reconoce como soluciones locales óptimas la restauración de prácticas tradicionales de conservación del suelo y agua, como las <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2213305414000113">terrazas agrícolas</a> construidas con técnicas de <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ldr.2840">piedra en seco</a>. Estas estructuras, comunes en paisajes culturales mediterráneos, han ayudado durante siglos a prevenir la erosión y a ralentizar la generación de escorrentía, mitigando la magnitud de los <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0341816218302881">picos de caudal</a>. La degradación actual de estas estructuras genera alteraciones en las dinámicas hidrosedimentarias de las cuencas, incrementando el riesgo de inundación. </p> <p>Igualmente, las soluciones basadas en la naturaleza, como la restauración y conservación de los <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221204161630184X">bosques de ribera</a>, evitan inundaciones, ofreciendo otros <a href="https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/70/6/501/5824857">servicios ecosistémicos</a>. Este efecto contrasta con la percepción que vincula limpieza y reducción de riesgo de inundación a su eliminación.</p> <h2>Los sistemas de alerta temprana</h2> <p>Además, es fundamental definir cómo anticipar y comunicar eficazmente la inminencia de una inundación. Para ello, los <a href="https://news.un.org/es/story/2021/09/1496142">sistemas de alerta temprana</a> son un componente imprescindible de las <a href="https://www.aself.org/revista-seguritecnia-cronica-jornada-sistemas-de-avisos-a-la-poblacion-y-alerta-temprana/">estrategias locales</a> de gestión del riesgo. </p> <p>Su objetivo principal es emitir avisos cuando una inundación es inminente o ya está ocurriendo, comprendiendo <a href="https://www.ctc-n.org/sites/default/files/resources/early_warning_systems_for_floods_0.pdf">cuatro elementos básicos</a> interrelacionados: </p> <ul> <li><p>Evaluación y conocimiento del riesgo de inundación.</p></li> <li><p>Vigilancia, previsión de peligros y servicio de alerta.</p></li> <li><p>Difusión y comunicación del riesgo.</p></li> <li><p>Capacidad de respuesta. </p></li> </ul> <p>Este sistema multifuncional mejora la preparación de las comunidades frente a fenómenos extremos, tanto en términos de alerta como de comprensión del riesgo y de capacidad de respuesta.</p> <p>La creación del <a href="https://riscbal.uib.es/">Observatorio de Riesgos Naturales y Emergencias de las Islas Baleares</a> (RiscBal) ha supuesto un hito en la concepción integral de la prevención y gestión de riesgos naturales. Constituye un entorno de innovación y transferencia de conocimiento científico único entre instituciones científicas, políticas, cuerpos de emergencia y comunidades locales. </p> <p>Por ejemplo, los municipios colaboran con RiscBal en la construcción y mantenimiento de la infraestructura de prevención de inundaciones, asegurando una respuesta municipal eficiente a los avisos, esencial en cuencas pequeñas y abruptas donde el tiempo de respuesta es muy reducido. </p> <p>Los miembros del equipo de RiscBal hemos desarrollado <a href="https://visor.riscbal.uib.cat/welcome">RiscBal-Avisos</a>, un avanzado sistema de alerta temprana multirriesgo en tiempo real, que combina datos observados y de modelización, a partir de la red de monitorización <a href="https://riscbal.uib.cat/stationList.html">RiscBal-Control</a>, con 55 estaciones hidrométricas y 29 estaciones meteorológicas ubicadas en puntos críticos de inundación tales como la <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780128119518000023">ciudad de Palma y su área metropolitana</a>.</p> <figure class="align-center zoomable"> <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><div class="placeholder-container" style="--aspect-ratio-percent:56.233421750663126%;--background-color:#a3575a"><img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" data-srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=338&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631812/original/file-20241113-15-xc1cgf.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></div></a> <figcaption> <span class="caption">Esquema conceptual de la monitorización, modelización y flujo de datos para la generación de avisos en RiscBal.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Los autores</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span> </figcaption> </figure> <figure class="align-center zoomable"> <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><div class="placeholder-container" style="--aspect-ratio-percent:70.6896551724138%;--background-color:#b56a5c"><img alt="" class="lazyload" data-src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" data-srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=600&amp;h=424&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=533&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=30&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=533&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/631813/original/file-20241113-15-ghf4pb.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=15&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;h=533&amp;fit=crop&amp;dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></div></a> <figcaption> <span class="caption">Mapa de las estaciones RiscBal-Control desplegadas en las Islas Baleares para la gestión del sistema de alertas temprana RiscBal-Avisos.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">RiscBal</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span> </figcaption> </figure> <h2>¿Cómo mejorar estas herramientas?</h2> <p>Muchos son los retos por afrontar para construir una herramienta más eficaz, requiriendo de alta <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/72571">precisión en la monitorización y pronóstico de inundaciones</a>, mediante modelos estadísticos y <a href="https://www.politesi.polimi.it/handle/10589/200012">plataformas de inteligencia artificial</a> que manejen gran cantidad de datos en tiempo real. </p> <p>Las alertas deben comunicarse rápida y efectivamente a través de redes de comunicación estables en situaciones adversas. Además, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420920312966">la respuesta de la comunidad</a> puede verse afectada por desconocimiento o falta de confianza en el sistema, reduciendo su efectividad. Es común la falta de percepción del riesgo o de interpretación de cómo actuar, lo que hace que las acciones de divulgación sean esenciales. </p> <p>Finalmente, es clave asegurar una buena comunicación entre los actores implicados, desde la esfera política de toma de decisiones hasta la ciudadanía. Únicamente así se ofrecerá una respuesta óptima en prevención y gestión de catástrofes. </p> <p>Como sociedad, debemos acostumbrarnos a vivir bajo el riesgo de inundación con una cultura del riesgo basada en nuevas herramientas de gestión territorial y la optimización de sistemas de alerta temprana. Solamente de esta manera podremos prepararnos para afrontar la próxima inundación “imposible”.</p> <hr> <p><em>Este artículo ha sido escrito en colaboración con Josué Díaz, Joan Pol y Antoni Bernat, de la Direcció General d’Emergències i Interior, Govern de les Illes Balears.</em></p> <hr> </div> <div class="grid-ten grid-prepend-two large-grid-nine grid-last content-topics topic-list"> <i class="icon-tag"></i> <ul> <li class="topic-list-item"> <a href="/topics/inundaciones-51625">inundaciones</a> </li> <li class="topic-list-item"> <a href="/topics/alerta-temprana-55482">alerta temprana</a> </li> <li class="topic-list-item"> <a href="/topics/riesgos-naturales-65804">riesgos naturales</a> </li> <li class="topic-list-item"> <a href="/topics/dana-81991">DANA</a> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="slot grid-ten grid-prepend-two large-grid-nine grid-last mb5" data-id="15"></div> </div> <div class="wrapper"> <div class="react-content-related-container" data-article-id="243624"></div> 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r=[e,t];s&&(r=r.concat(o?s.split(o):s)),e.indexOf(".")>-1&&(r=e.split("."),i=t,t=r[1]),this.addNamespaces(t),g(this.data,r,i),n.silent||this.emit("added",e,t,s,i)}addResources(e,t,s){let i=arguments.length>3&&void 0!==arguments[3]?arguments[3]:{silent:!1};for(const i in s)("string"==typeof s[i]||Array.isArray(s[i]))&&this.addResource(e,t,i,s[i],{silent:!0});i.silent||this.emit("added",e,t,s)}addResourceBundle(e,t,s,i,n){let o=arguments.length>5&&void 0!==arguments[5]?arguments[5]:{silent:!1,skipCopy:!1},r=[e,t];e.indexOf(".")>-1&&(r=e.split("."),i=s,s=t,t=r[1]),this.addNamespaces(t);let a=d(this.data,r)||{};o.skipCopy||(s=JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(s))),i?f(a,s,n):a={...a,...s},g(this.data,r,a),o.silent||this.emit("added",e,t,s)}removeResourceBundle(e,t){this.hasResourceBundle(e,t)&&delete this.data[e][t],this.removeNamespaces(t),this.emit("removed",e,t)}hasResourceBundle(e,t){return void 0!==this.getResource(e,t)}getResourceBundle(e,t){return t||(t=this.options.defaultNS),"v1"===this.options.compatibilityAPI?{...this.getResource(e,t)}:this.getResource(e,t)}getDataByLanguage(e){return this.data[e]}hasLanguageSomeTranslations(e){const t=this.getDataByLanguage(e);return!!(t&&Object.keys(t)||[]).find((e=>t[e]&&Object.keys(t[e]).length>0))}toJSON(){return this.data}}var w={processors:{},addPostProcessor(e){this.processors[e.name]=e},handle(e,t,s,i,n){return e.forEach((e=>{this.processors[e]&&(t=this.processors[e].process(t,s,i,n))})),t}};const L={};class P extends r{constructor(e){let t=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]?arguments[1]:{};super(),((e,t,s)=>{e.forEach((e=>{t[e]&&(s[e]=t[e])}))})(["resourceStore","languageUtils","pluralResolver","interpolator","backendConnector","i18nFormat","utils"],e,this),this.options=t,void 0===this.options.keySeparator&&(this.options.keySeparator="."),this.logger=o.create("translator")}changeLanguage(e){e&&(this.language=e)}exists(e){let t=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]?arguments[1]:{interpolation:{}};if(null==e)return!1;const s=this.resolve(e,t);return s&&void 0!==s.res}extractFromKey(e,t){let s=void 0!==t.nsSeparator?t.nsSeparator:this.options.nsSeparator;void 0===s&&(s=":");const i=void 0!==t.keySeparator?t.keySeparator:this.options.keySeparator;let n=t.ns||this.options.defaultNS||[];const o=s&&e.indexOf(s)>-1,r=!(this.options.userDefinedKeySeparator||t.keySeparator||this.options.userDefinedNsSeparator||t.nsSeparator||((e,t,s)=>{t=t||"",s=s||"";const i=b.filter((e=>t.indexOf(e)<0&&s.indexOf(e)<0));if(0===i.length)return!0;const n=x.getRegExp(`(${i.map((e=>"?"===e?"\\?":e)).join("|")})`);let o=!n.test(e);if(!o){const t=e.indexOf(s);t>0&&!n.test(e.substring(0,t))&&(o=!0)}return o})(e,s,i));if(o&&!r){const t=e.match(this.interpolator.nestingRegexp);if(t&&t.length>0)return{key:e,namespaces:n};const o=e.split(s);(s!==i||s===i&&this.options.ns.indexOf(o[0])>-1)&&(n=o.shift()),e=o.join(i)}return"string"==typeof n&&(n=[n]),{key:e,namespaces:n}}translate(e,t,s){if("object"!=typeof t&&this.options.overloadTranslationOptionHandler&&(t=this.options.overloadTranslationOptionHandler(arguments)),"object"==typeof t&&(t={...t}),t||(t={}),null==e)return"";Array.isArray(e)||(e=[String(e)]);const i=void 0!==t.returnDetails?t.returnDetails:this.options.returnDetails,n=void 0!==t.keySeparator?t.keySeparator:this.options.keySeparator,{key:o,namespaces:r}=this.extractFromKey(e[e.length-1],t),a=r[r.length-1],l=t.lng||this.language,c=t.appendNamespaceToCIMode||this.options.appendNamespaceToCIMode;if(l&&"cimode"===l.toLowerCase()){if(c){const e=t.nsSeparator||this.options.nsSeparator;return i?{res:`${a}${e}${o}`,usedKey:o,exactUsedKey:o,usedLng:l,usedNS:a,usedParams:this.getUsedParamsDetails(t)}:`${a}${e}${o}`}return i?{res:o,usedKey:o,exactUsedKey:o,usedLng:l,usedNS:a,usedParams:this.getUsedParamsDetails(t)}:o}const u=this.resolve(e,t);let h=u&&u.res;const p=u&&u.usedKey||o,g=u&&u.exactUsedKey||o,d=Object.prototype.toString.apply(h),f=void 0!==t.joinArrays?t.joinArrays:this.options.joinArrays,m=!this.i18nFormat||this.i18nFormat.handleAsObject;if(m&&h&&("string"!=typeof h&&"boolean"!=typeof h&&"number"!=typeof h)&&["[object Number]","[object Function]","[object RegExp]"].indexOf(d)<0&&("string"!=typeof f||!Array.isArray(h))){if(!t.returnObjects&&!this.options.returnObjects){this.options.returnedObjectHandler||this.logger.warn("accessing an object - but returnObjects options is not enabled!");const e=this.options.returnedObjectHandler?this.options.returnedObjectHandler(p,h,{...t,ns:r}):`key '${o} (${this.language})' returned an object instead of string.`;return i?(u.res=e,u.usedParams=this.getUsedParamsDetails(t),u):e}if(n){const e=Array.isArray(h),s=e?[]:{},i=e?g:p;for(const e in h)if(Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(h,e)){const o=`${i}${n}${e}`;s[e]=this.translate(o,{...t,joinArrays:!1,ns:r}),s[e]===o&&(s[e]=h[e])}h=s}}else if(m&&"string"==typeof f&&Array.isArray(h))h=h.join(f),h&&(h=this.extendTranslation(h,e,t,s));else{let i=!1,r=!1;const c=void 0!==t.count&&"string"!=typeof t.count,p=P.hasDefaultValue(t),g=c?this.pluralResolver.getSuffix(l,t.count,t):"",d=t.ordinal&&c?this.pluralResolver.getSuffix(l,t.count,{ordinal:!1}):"",f=c&&!t.ordinal&&0===t.count&&this.pluralResolver.shouldUseIntlApi(),m=f&&t[`defaultValue${this.options.pluralSeparator}zero`]||t[`defaultValue${g}`]||t[`defaultValue${d}`]||t.defaultValue;!this.isValidLookup(h)&&p&&(i=!0,h=m),this.isValidLookup(h)||(r=!0,h=o);const y=(t.missingKeyNoValueFallbackToKey||this.options.missingKeyNoValueFallbackToKey)&&r?void 0:h,v=p&&m!==h&&this.options.updateMissing;if(r||i||v){if(this.logger.log(v?"updateKey":"missingKey",l,a,o,v?m:h),n){const e=this.resolve(o,{...t,keySeparator:!1});e&&e.res&&this.logger.warn("Seems the loaded translations were in flat JSON format instead of nested. Either set keySeparator: false on init or make sure your translations are published in nested format.")}let e=[];const s=this.languageUtils.getFallbackCodes(this.options.fallbackLng,t.lng||this.language);if("fallback"===this.options.saveMissingTo&&s&&s[0])for(let t=0;t<s.length;t++)e.push(s[t]);else"all"===this.options.saveMissingTo?e=this.languageUtils.toResolveHierarchy(t.lng||this.language):e.push(t.lng||this.language);const i=(e,s,i)=>{const n=p&&i!==h?i:y;this.options.missingKeyHandler?this.options.missingKeyHandler(e,a,s,n,v,t):this.backendConnector&&this.backendConnector.saveMissing&&this.backendConnector.saveMissing(e,a,s,n,v,t),this.emit("missingKey",e,a,s,h)};this.options.saveMissing&&(this.options.saveMissingPlurals&&c?e.forEach((e=>{const s=this.pluralResolver.getSuffixes(e,t);f&&t[`defaultValue${this.options.pluralSeparator}zero`]&&s.indexOf(`${this.options.pluralSeparator}zero`)<0&&s.push(`${this.options.pluralSeparator}zero`),s.forEach((s=>{i([e],o+s,t[`defaultValue${s}`]||m)}))})):i(e,o,m))}h=this.extendTranslation(h,e,t,u,s),r&&h===o&&this.options.appendNamespaceToMissingKey&&(h=`${a}:${o}`),(r||i)&&this.options.parseMissingKeyHandler&&(h="v1"!==this.options.compatibilityAPI?this.options.parseMissingKeyHandler(this.options.appendNamespaceToMissingKey?`${a}:${o}`:o,i?h:void 0):this.options.parseMissingKeyHandler(h))}return i?(u.res=h,u.usedParams=this.getUsedParamsDetails(t),u):h}extendTranslation(e,t,s,i,n){var o=this;if(this.i18nFormat&&this.i18nFormat.parse)e=this.i18nFormat.parse(e,{...this.options.interpolation.defaultVariables,...s},s.lng||this.language||i.usedLng,i.usedNS,i.usedKey,{resolved:i});else if(!s.skipInterpolation){s.interpolation&&this.interpolator.init({...s,interpolation:{...this.options.interpolation,...s.interpolation}});const r="string"==typeof e&&(s&&s.interpolation&&void 0!==s.interpolation.skipOnVariables?s.interpolation.skipOnVariables:this.options.interpolation.skipOnVariables);let a;if(r){const t=e.match(this.interpolator.nestingRegexp);a=t&&t.length}let l=s.replace&&"string"!=typeof s.replace?s.replace:s;if(this.options.interpolation.defaultVariables&&(l={...this.options.interpolation.defaultVariables,...l}),e=this.interpolator.interpolate(e,l,s.lng||this.language||i.usedLng,s),r){const t=e.match(this.interpolator.nestingRegexp);a<(t&&t.length)&&(s.nest=!1)}!s.lng&&"v1"!==this.options.compatibilityAPI&&i&&i.res&&(s.lng=this.language||i.usedLng),!1!==s.nest&&(e=this.interpolator.nest(e,(function(){for(var e=arguments.length,i=new Array(e),r=0;r<e;r++)i[r]=arguments[r];return n&&n[0]===i[0]&&!s.context?(o.logger.warn(`It seems you are nesting recursively key: ${i[0]} in key: ${t[0]}`),null):o.translate(...i,t)}),s)),s.interpolation&&this.interpolator.reset()}const r=s.postProcess||this.options.postProcess,a="string"==typeof r?[r]:r;return null!=e&&a&&a.length&&!1!==s.applyPostProcessor&&(e=w.handle(a,e,t,this.options&&this.options.postProcessPassResolved?{i18nResolved:{...i,usedParams:this.getUsedParamsDetails(s)},...s}:s,this)),e}resolve(e){let t,s,i,n,o,r=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]?arguments[1]:{};return"string"==typeof e&&(e=[e]),e.forEach((e=>{if(this.isValidLookup(t))return;const a=this.extractFromKey(e,r),l=a.key;s=l;let c=a.namespaces;this.options.fallbackNS&&(c=c.concat(this.options.fallbackNS));const u=void 0!==r.count&&"string"!=typeof r.count,h=u&&!r.ordinal&&0===r.count&&this.pluralResolver.shouldUseIntlApi(),p=void 0!==r.context&&("string"==typeof r.context||"number"==typeof r.context)&&""!==r.context,g=r.lngs?r.lngs:this.languageUtils.toResolveHierarchy(r.lng||this.language,r.fallbackLng);c.forEach((e=>{this.isValidLookup(t)||(o=e,!L[`${g[0]}-${e}`]&&this.utils&&this.utils.hasLoadedNamespace&&!this.utils.hasLoadedNamespace(o)&&(L[`${g[0]}-${e}`]=!0,this.logger.warn(`key "${s}" for languages "${g.join(", ")}" won't get resolved as namespace "${o}" was not yet loaded`,"This means something IS WRONG in your setup. You access the t function before i18next.init / i18next.loadNamespace / i18next.changeLanguage was done. Wait for the callback or Promise to resolve before accessing it!!!")),g.forEach((s=>{if(this.isValidLookup(t))return;n=s;const o=[l];if(this.i18nFormat&&this.i18nFormat.addLookupKeys)this.i18nFormat.addLookupKeys(o,l,s,e,r);else{let e;u&&(e=this.pluralResolver.getSuffix(s,r.count,r));const t=`${this.options.pluralSeparator}zero`,i=`${this.options.pluralSeparator}ordinal${this.options.pluralSeparator}`;if(u&&(o.push(l+e),r.ordinal&&0===e.indexOf(i)&&o.push(l+e.replace(i,this.options.pluralSeparator)),h&&o.push(l+t)),p){const s=`${l}${this.options.contextSeparator}${r.context}`;o.push(s),u&&(o.push(s+e),r.ordinal&&0===e.indexOf(i)&&o.push(s+e.replace(i,this.options.pluralSeparator)),h&&o.push(s+t))}}let a;for(;a=o.pop();)this.isValidLookup(t)||(i=a,t=this.getResource(s,e,a,r))})))}))})),{res:t,usedKey:s,exactUsedKey:i,usedLng:n,usedNS:o}}isValidLookup(e){return!(void 0===e||!this.options.returnNull&&null===e||!this.options.returnEmptyString&&""===e)}getResource(e,t,s){let i=arguments.length>3&&void 0!==arguments[3]?arguments[3]:{};return this.i18nFormat&&this.i18nFormat.getResource?this.i18nFormat.getResource(e,t,s,i):this.resourceStore.getResource(e,t,s,i)}getUsedParamsDetails(){let e=arguments.length>0&&void 0!==arguments[0]?arguments[0]:{};const t=["defaultValue","ordinal","context","replace","lng","lngs","fallbackLng","ns","keySeparator","nsSeparator","returnObjects","returnDetails","joinArrays","postProcess","interpolation"],s=e.replace&&"string"!=typeof e.replace;let i=s?e.replace:e;if(s&&void 0!==e.count&&(i.count=e.count),this.options.interpolation.defaultVariables&&(i={...this.options.interpolation.defaultVariables,...i}),!s){i={...i};for(const e of t)delete i[e]}return i}static hasDefaultValue(e){const t="defaultValue";for(const s in e)if(Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(e,s)&&t===s.substring(0,12)&&void 0!==e[s])return!0;return!1}}const R=e=>e.charAt(0).toUpperCase()+e.slice(1);class C{constructor(e){this.options=e,this.supportedLngs=this.options.supportedLngs||!1,this.logger=o.create("languageUtils")}getScriptPartFromCode(e){if(!(e=S(e))||e.indexOf("-")<0)return null;const t=e.split("-");return 2===t.length?null:(t.pop(),"x"===t[t.length-1].toLowerCase()?null:this.formatLanguageCode(t.join("-")))}getLanguagePartFromCode(e){if(!(e=S(e))||e.indexOf("-")<0)return e;const t=e.split("-");return this.formatLanguageCode(t[0])}formatLanguageCode(e){if("string"==typeof e&&e.indexOf("-")>-1){if("undefined"!=typeof Intl&&void 0!==Intl.getCanonicalLocales)try{let t=Intl.getCanonicalLocales(e)[0];if(t&&this.options.lowerCaseLng&&(t=t.toLowerCase()),t)return t}catch(e){}const t=["hans","hant","latn","cyrl","cans","mong","arab"];let s=e.split("-");return this.options.lowerCaseLng?s=s.map((e=>e.toLowerCase())):2===s.length?(s[0]=s[0].toLowerCase(),s[1]=s[1].toUpperCase(),t.indexOf(s[1].toLowerCase())>-1&&(s[1]=R(s[1].toLowerCase()))):3===s.length&&(s[0]=s[0].toLowerCase(),2===s[1].length&&(s[1]=s[1].toUpperCase()),"sgn"!==s[0]&&2===s[2].length&&(s[2]=s[2].toUpperCase()),t.indexOf(s[1].toLowerCase())>-1&&(s[1]=R(s[1].toLowerCase())),t.indexOf(s[2].toLowerCase())>-1&&(s[2]=R(s[2].toLowerCase()))),s.join("-")}return this.options.cleanCode||this.options.lowerCaseLng?e.toLowerCase():e}isSupportedCode(e){return("languageOnly"===this.options.load||this.options.nonExplicitSupportedLngs)&&(e=this.getLanguagePartFromCode(e)),!this.supportedLngs||!this.supportedLngs.length||this.supportedLngs.indexOf(e)>-1}getBestMatchFromCodes(e){if(!e)return null;let t;return e.forEach((e=>{if(t)return;const s=this.formatLanguageCode(e);this.options.supportedLngs&&!this.isSupportedCode(s)||(t=s)})),!t&&this.options.supportedLngs&&e.forEach((e=>{if(t)return;const s=this.getLanguagePartFromCode(e);if(this.isSupportedCode(s))return t=s;t=this.options.supportedLngs.find((e=>e===s?e:e.indexOf("-")<0&&s.indexOf("-")<0?void 0:e.indexOf("-")>0&&s.indexOf("-")<0&&e.substring(0,e.indexOf("-"))===s||0===e.indexOf(s)&&s.length>1?e:void 0))})),t||(t=this.getFallbackCodes(this.options.fallbackLng)[0]),t}getFallbackCodes(e,t){if(!e)return[];if("function"==typeof e&&(e=e(t)),"string"==typeof e&&(e=[e]),Array.isArray(e))return e;if(!t)return e.default||[];let s=e[t];return s||(s=e[this.getScriptPartFromCode(t)]),s||(s=e[this.formatLanguageCode(t)]),s||(s=e[this.getLanguagePartFromCode(t)]),s||(s=e.default),s||[]}toResolveHierarchy(e,t){const s=this.getFallbackCodes(t||this.options.fallbackLng||[],e),i=[],n=e=>{e&&(this.isSupportedCode(e)?i.push(e):this.logger.warn(`rejecting language code not found in supportedLngs: ${e}`))};return"string"==typeof e&&(e.indexOf("-")>-1||e.indexOf("_")>-1)?("languageOnly"!==this.options.load&&n(this.formatLanguageCode(e)),"languageOnly"!==this.options.load&&"currentOnly"!==this.options.load&&n(this.getScriptPartFromCode(e)),"currentOnly"!==this.options.load&&n(this.getLanguagePartFromCode(e))):"string"==typeof e&&n(this.formatLanguageCode(e)),s.forEach((e=>{i.indexOf(e)<0&&n(this.formatLanguageCode(e))})),i}}let N=[{lngs:["ach","ak","am","arn","br","fil","gun","ln","mfe","mg","mi","oc","pt","pt-BR","tg","tl","ti","tr","uz","wa"],nr:[1,2],fc:1},{lngs:["af","an","ast","az","bg","bn","ca","da","de","dev","el","en","eo","es","et","eu","fi","fo","fur","fy","gl","gu","ha","hi","hu","hy","ia","it","kk","kn","ku","lb","mai","ml","mn","mr","nah","nap","nb","ne","nl","nn","no","nso","pa","pap","pms","ps","pt-PT","rm","sco","se","si","so","son","sq","sv","sw","ta","te","tk","ur","yo"],nr:[1,2],fc:2},{lngs:["ay","bo","cgg","fa","ht","id","ja","jbo","ka","km","ko","ky","lo","ms","sah","su","th","tt","ug","vi","wo","zh"],nr:[1],fc:3},{lngs:["be","bs","cnr","dz","hr","ru","sr","uk"],nr:[1,2,5],fc:4},{lngs:["ar"],nr:[0,1,2,3,11,100],fc:5},{lngs:["cs","sk"],nr:[1,2,5],fc:6},{lngs:["csb","pl"],nr:[1,2,5],fc:7},{lngs:["cy"],nr:[1,2,3,8],fc:8},{lngs:["fr"],nr:[1,2],fc:9},{lngs:["ga"],nr:[1,2,3,7,11],fc:10},{lngs:["gd"],nr:[1,2,3,20],fc:11},{lngs:["is"],nr:[1,2],fc:12},{lngs:["jv"],nr:[0,1],fc:13},{lngs:["kw"],nr:[1,2,3,4],fc:14},{lngs:["lt"],nr:[1,2,10],fc:15},{lngs:["lv"],nr:[1,2,0],fc:16},{lngs:["mk"],nr:[1,2],fc:17},{lngs:["mnk"],nr:[0,1,2],fc:18},{lngs:["mt"],nr:[1,2,11,20],fc:19},{lngs:["or"],nr:[2,1],fc:2},{lngs:["ro"],nr:[1,2,20],fc:20},{lngs:["sl"],nr:[5,1,2,3],fc:21},{lngs:["he","iw"],nr:[1,2,20,21],fc:22}],j={1:e=>Number(e>1),2:e=>Number(1!=e),3:e=>0,4:e=>Number(e%10==1&&e%100!=11?0:e%10>=2&&e%10<=4&&(e%100<10||e%100>=20)?1:2),5:e=>Number(0==e?0:1==e?1:2==e?2:e%100>=3&&e%100<=10?3:e%100>=11?4:5),6:e=>Number(1==e?0:e>=2&&e<=4?1:2),7:e=>Number(1==e?0:e%10>=2&&e%10<=4&&(e%100<10||e%100>=20)?1:2),8:e=>Number(1==e?0:2==e?1:8!=e&&11!=e?2:3),9:e=>Number(e>=2),10:e=>Number(1==e?0:2==e?1:e<7?2:e<11?3:4),11:e=>Number(1==e||11==e?0:2==e||12==e?1:e>2&&e<20?2:3),12:e=>Number(e%10!=1||e%100==11),13:e=>Number(0!==e),14:e=>Number(1==e?0:2==e?1:3==e?2:3),15:e=>Number(e%10==1&&e%100!=11?0:e%10>=2&&(e%100<10||e%100>=20)?1:2),16:e=>Number(e%10==1&&e%100!=11?0:0!==e?1:2),17:e=>Number(1==e||e%10==1&&e%100!=11?0:1),18:e=>Number(0==e?0:1==e?1:2),19:e=>Number(1==e?0:0==e||e%100>1&&e%100<11?1:e%100>10&&e%100<20?2:3),20:e=>Number(1==e?0:0==e||e%100>0&&e%100<20?1:2),21:e=>Number(e%100==1?1:e%100==2?2:e%100==3||e%100==4?3:0),22:e=>Number(1==e?0:2==e?1:(e<0||e>10)&&e%10==0?2:3)};const $=["v1","v2","v3"],A=["v4"],E={zero:0,one:1,two:2,few:3,many:4,other:5};class I{constructor(e){let t=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]?arguments[1]:{};this.languageUtils=e,this.options=t,this.logger=o.create("pluralResolver"),this.options.compatibilityJSON&&!A.includes(this.options.compatibilityJSON)||"undefined"!=typeof Intl&&Intl.PluralRules||(this.options.compatibilityJSON="v3",this.logger.error("Your environment seems not to be Intl API compatible, use an Intl.PluralRules polyfill. 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n=()=>this.options.prepend&&i.toString()?this.options.prepend+i.toString():i.toString();return"v1"===this.options.compatibilityJSON?1===i?"":"number"==typeof i?`_plural_${i.toString()}`:n():"v2"===this.options.compatibilityJSON||this.options.simplifyPluralSuffix&&2===e.numbers.length&&1===e.numbers[0]?n():this.options.prepend&&s.toString()?this.options.prepend+s.toString():s.toString()}shouldUseIntlApi(){return!$.includes(this.options.compatibilityJSON)}}const T=function(e,t,s){let i=arguments.length>3&&void 0!==arguments[3]?arguments[3]:".",n=!(arguments.length>4&&void 0!==arguments[4])||arguments[4],o=((e,t,s)=>{const i=d(e,s);return void 0!==i?i:d(t,s)})(e,t,s);return!o&&n&&"string"==typeof s&&(o=k(e,s,i),void 0===o&&(o=k(t,s,i))),o},D=e=>e.replace(/\$/g,"$$$$");class F{constructor(){let e=arguments.length>0&&void 0!==arguments[0]?arguments[0]:{};this.logger=o.create("interpolator"),this.options=e,this.format=e.interpolation&&e.interpolation.format||(e=>e),this.init(e)}init(){let 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H=()=>({debug:!1,initImmediate:!0,ns:["translation"],defaultNS:["translation"],fallbackLng:["dev"],fallbackNS:!1,supportedLngs:!1,nonExplicitSupportedLngs:!1,load:"all",preload:!1,simplifyPluralSuffix:!0,keySeparator:".",nsSeparator:":",pluralSeparator:"_",contextSeparator:"_",partialBundledLanguages:!1,saveMissing:!1,updateMissing:!1,saveMissingTo:"fallback",saveMissingPlurals:!0,missingKeyHandler:!1,missingInterpolationHandler:!1,postProcess:!1,postProcessPassResolved:!1,returnNull:!1,returnEmptyString:!0,returnObjects:!1,joinArrays:!1,returnedObjectHandler:!1,parseMissingKeyHandler:!1,appendNamespaceToMissingKey:!1,appendNamespaceToCIMode:!1,overloadTranslationOptionHandler:e=>{let t={};if("object"==typeof e[1]&&(t=e[1]),"string"==typeof e[1]&&(t.defaultValue=e[1]),"string"==typeof e[2]&&(t.tDescription=e[2]),"object"==typeof e[2]||"object"==typeof e[3]){const s=e[3]||e[2];Object.keys(s).forEach((e=>{t[e]=s[e]}))}return t},interpolation:{escapeValue:!0,format:e=>e,prefix:"{{",suffix:"}}",formatSeparator:",",unescapePrefix:"-",nestingPrefix:"$t(",nestingSuffix:")",nestingOptionsSeparator:",",maxReplaces:1e3,skipOnVariables:!0}}),K=e=>("string"==typeof e.ns&&(e.ns=[e.ns]),"string"==typeof e.fallbackLng&&(e.fallbackLng=[e.fallbackLng]),"string"==typeof e.fallbackNS&&(e.fallbackNS=[e.fallbackNS]),e.supportedLngs&&e.supportedLngs.indexOf("cimode")<0&&(e.supportedLngs=e.supportedLngs.concat(["cimode"])),e),J=()=>{};class z extends r{constructor(){let e=arguments.length>0&&void 0!==arguments[0]?arguments[0]:{},t=arguments.length>1?arguments[1]:void 0;var s;if(super(),this.options=K(e),this.services={},this.logger=o,this.modules={external:[]},s=this,Object.getOwnPropertyNames(Object.getPrototypeOf(s)).forEach((e=>{"function"==typeof s[e]&&(s[e]=s[e].bind(s))})),t&&!this.isInitialized&&!e.isClone){if(!this.options.initImmediate)return this.init(e,t),this;setTimeout((()=>{this.init(e,t)}),0)}}init(){var e=this;let t=arguments.length>0&&void 0!==arguments[0]?arguments[0]:{},s=arguments.length>1?arguments[1]:void 0;this.isInitializing=!0,"function"==typeof t&&(s=t,t={}),!t.defaultNS&&!1!==t.defaultNS&&t.ns&&("string"==typeof t.ns?t.defaultNS=t.ns:t.ns.indexOf("translation")<0&&(t.defaultNS=t.ns[0]));const i=H();this.options={...i,...this.options,...K(t)},"v1"!==this.options.compatibilityAPI&&(this.options.interpolation={...i.interpolation,...this.options.interpolation}),void 0!==t.keySeparator&&(this.options.userDefinedKeySeparator=t.keySeparator),void 0!==t.nsSeparator&&(this.options.userDefinedNsSeparator=t.nsSeparator);const n=e=>e?"function"==typeof e?new e:e:null;if(!this.options.isClone){let t;this.modules.logger?o.init(n(this.modules.logger),this.options):o.init(null,this.options),this.modules.formatter?t=this.modules.formatter:"undefined"!=typeof Intl&&(t=U);const s=new C(this.options);this.store=new O(this.options.resources,this.options);const r=this.services;r.logger=o,r.resourceStore=this.store,r.languageUtils=s,r.pluralResolver=new I(s,{prepend:this.options.pluralSeparator,compatibilityJSON:this.options.compatibilityJSON,simplifyPluralSuffix:this.options.simplifyPluralSuffix}),!t||this.options.interpolation.format&&this.options.interpolation.format!==i.interpolation.format||(r.formatter=n(t),r.formatter.init(r,this.options),this.options.interpolation.format=r.formatter.format.bind(r.formatter)),r.interpolator=new F(this.options),r.utils={hasLoadedNamespace:this.hasLoadedNamespace.bind(this)},r.backendConnector=new M(n(this.modules.backend),r.resourceStore,r,this.options),r.backendConnector.on("*",(function(t){for(var s=arguments.length,i=new Array(s>1?s-1:0),n=1;n<s;n++)i[n-1]=arguments[n];e.emit(t,...i)})),this.modules.languageDetector&&(r.languageDetector=n(this.modules.languageDetector),r.languageDetector.init&&r.languageDetector.init(r,this.options.detection,this.options)),this.modules.i18nFormat&&(r.i18nFormat=n(this.modules.i18nFormat),r.i18nFormat.init&&r.i18nFormat.init(this)),this.translator=new P(this.services,this.options),this.translator.on("*",(function(t){for(var s=arguments.length,i=new Array(s>1?s-1:0),n=1;n<s;n++)i[n-1]=arguments[n];e.emit(t,...i)})),this.modules.external.forEach((e=>{e.init&&e.init(this)}))}if(this.format=this.options.interpolation.format,s||(s=J),this.options.fallbackLng&&!this.services.languageDetector&&!this.options.lng){const e=this.services.languageUtils.getFallbackCodes(this.options.fallbackLng);e.length>0&&"dev"!==e[0]&&(this.options.lng=e[0])}this.services.languageDetector||this.options.lng||this.logger.warn("init: no languageDetector is used and no lng is defined");["getResource","hasResourceBundle","getResourceBundle","getDataByLanguage"].forEach((t=>{this[t]=function(){return e.store[t](...arguments)}}));["addResource","addResources","addResourceBundle","removeResourceBundle"].forEach((t=>{this[t]=function(){return e.store[t](...arguments),e}}));const r=a(),l=()=>{const e=(e,t)=>{this.isInitializing=!1,this.isInitialized&&!this.initializedStoreOnce&&this.logger.warn("init: i18next is already initialized. You should call init just once!"),this.isInitialized=!0,this.options.isClone||this.logger.log("initialized",this.options),this.emit("initialized",this.options),r.resolve(t),s(e,t)};if(this.languages&&"v1"!==this.options.compatibilityAPI&&!this.isInitialized)return e(null,this.t.bind(this));this.changeLanguage(this.options.lng,e)};return this.options.resources||!this.options.initImmediate?l():setTimeout(l,0),r}loadResources(e){let t=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]?arguments[1]:J;const s="string"==typeof e?e:this.language;if("function"==typeof e&&(t=e),!this.options.resources||this.options.partialBundledLanguages){if(s&&"cimode"===s.toLowerCase()&&(!this.options.preload||0===this.options.preload.length))return t();const e=[],i=t=>{if(!t)return;if("cimode"===t)return;this.services.languageUtils.toResolveHierarchy(t).forEach((t=>{"cimode"!==t&&e.indexOf(t)<0&&e.push(t)}))};if(s)i(s);else{this.services.languageUtils.getFallbackCodes(this.options.fallbackLng).forEach((e=>i(e)))}this.options.preload&&this.options.preload.forEach((e=>i(e))),this.services.backendConnector.load(e,this.options.ns,(e=>{e||this.resolvedLanguage||!this.language||this.setResolvedLanguage(this.language),t(e)}))}else t(null)}reloadResources(e,t,s){const i=a();return"function"==typeof e&&(s=e,e=void 0),"function"==typeof t&&(s=t,t=void 0),e||(e=this.languages),t||(t=this.options.ns),s||(s=J),this.services.backendConnector.reload(e,t,(e=>{i.resolve(),s(e)})),i}use(e){if(!e)throw new Error("You are passing an undefined module! Please check the object you are passing to i18next.use()");if(!e.type)throw new Error("You are passing a wrong module! Please check the object you are passing to i18next.use()");return"backend"===e.type&&(this.modules.backend=e),("logger"===e.type||e.log&&e.warn&&e.error)&&(this.modules.logger=e),"languageDetector"===e.type&&(this.modules.languageDetector=e),"i18nFormat"===e.type&&(this.modules.i18nFormat=e),"postProcessor"===e.type&&w.addPostProcessor(e),"formatter"===e.type&&(this.modules.formatter=e),"3rdParty"===e.type&&this.modules.external.push(e),this}setResolvedLanguage(e){if(e&&this.languages&&!(["cimode","dev"].indexOf(e)>-1))for(let e=0;e<this.languages.length;e++){const t=this.languages[e];if(!(["cimode","dev"].indexOf(t)>-1)&&this.store.hasLanguageSomeTranslations(t)){this.resolvedLanguage=t;break}}}changeLanguage(e,t){var s=this;this.isLanguageChangingTo=e;const i=a();this.emit("languageChanging",e);const n=e=>{this.language=e,this.languages=this.services.languageUtils.toResolveHierarchy(e),this.resolvedLanguage=void 0,this.setResolvedLanguage(e)},o=(e,o)=>{o?(n(o),this.translator.changeLanguage(o),this.isLanguageChangingTo=void 0,this.emit("languageChanged",o),this.logger.log("languageChanged",o)):this.isLanguageChangingTo=void 0,i.resolve((function(){return s.t(...arguments)})),t&&t(e,(function(){return s.t(...arguments)}))},r=t=>{e||t||!this.services.languageDetector||(t=[]);const s="string"==typeof t?t:this.services.languageUtils.getBestMatchFromCodes(t);s&&(this.language||n(s),this.translator.language||this.translator.changeLanguage(s),this.services.languageDetector&&this.services.languageDetector.cacheUserLanguage&&this.services.languageDetector.cacheUserLanguage(s)),this.loadResources(s,(e=>{o(e,s)}))};return e||!this.services.languageDetector||this.services.languageDetector.async?!e&&this.services.languageDetector&&this.services.languageDetector.async?0===this.services.languageDetector.detect.length?this.services.languageDetector.detect().then(r):this.services.languageDetector.detect(r):r(e):r(this.services.languageDetector.detect()),i}getFixedT(e,t,s){var i=this;const n=function(e,t){let o;if("object"!=typeof t){for(var r=arguments.length,a=new Array(r>2?r-2:0),l=2;l<r;l++)a[l-2]=arguments[l];o=i.options.overloadTranslationOptionHandler([e,t].concat(a))}else o={...t};o.lng=o.lng||n.lng,o.lngs=o.lngs||n.lngs,o.ns=o.ns||n.ns,""!==o.keyPrefix&&(o.keyPrefix=o.keyPrefix||s||n.keyPrefix);const c=i.options.keySeparator||".";let u;return u=o.keyPrefix&&Array.isArray(e)?e.map((e=>`${o.keyPrefix}${c}${e}`)):o.keyPrefix?`${o.keyPrefix}${c}${e}`:e,i.t(u,o)};return"string"==typeof e?n.lng=e:n.lngs=e,n.ns=t,n.keyPrefix=s,n}t(){return this.translator&&this.translator.translate(...arguments)}exists(){return this.translator&&this.translator.exists(...arguments)}setDefaultNamespace(e){this.options.defaultNS=e}hasLoadedNamespace(e){let t=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]?arguments[1]:{};if(!this.isInitialized)return this.logger.warn("hasLoadedNamespace: i18next was not initialized",this.languages),!1;if(!this.languages||!this.languages.length)return this.logger.warn("hasLoadedNamespace: i18n.languages were undefined or empty",this.languages),!1;const s=t.lng||this.resolvedLanguage||this.languages[0],i=!!this.options&&this.options.fallbackLng,n=this.languages[this.languages.length-1];if("cimode"===s.toLowerCase())return!0;const o=(e,t)=>{const s=this.services.backendConnector.state[`${e}|${t}`];return-1===s||0===s||2===s};if(t.precheck){const e=t.precheck(this,o);if(void 0!==e)return e}return!!this.hasResourceBundle(s,e)||(!(this.services.backendConnector.backend&&(!this.options.resources||this.options.partialBundledLanguages))||!(!o(s,e)||i&&!o(n,e)))}loadNamespaces(e,t){const s=a();return this.options.ns?("string"==typeof e&&(e=[e]),e.forEach((e=>{this.options.ns.indexOf(e)<0&&this.options.ns.push(e)})),this.loadResources((e=>{s.resolve(),t&&t(e)})),s):(t&&t(),Promise.resolve())}loadLanguages(e,t){const s=a();"string"==typeof e&&(e=[e]);const i=this.options.preload||[],n=e.filter((e=>i.indexOf(e)<0&&this.services.languageUtils.isSupportedCode(e)));return n.length?(this.options.preload=i.concat(n),this.loadResources((e=>{s.resolve(),t&&t(e)})),s):(t&&t(),Promise.resolve())}dir(e){if(e||(e=this.resolvedLanguage||(this.languages&&this.languages.length>0?this.languages[0]:this.language)),!e)return"rtl";const t=this.services&&this.services.languageUtils||new C(H());return["ar","shu","sqr","ssh","xaa","yhd","yud","aao","abh","abv","acm","acq","acw","acx","acy","adf","ads","aeb","aec","afb","ajp","apc","apd","arb","arq","ars","ary","arz","auz","avl","ayh","ayl","ayn","ayp","bbz","pga","he","iw","ps","pbt","pbu","pst","prp","prd","ug","ur","ydd","yds","yih","ji","yi","hbo","men","xmn","fa","jpr","peo","pes","prs","dv","sam","ckb"].indexOf(t.getLanguagePartFromCode(e))>-1||e.toLowerCase().indexOf("-arab")>1?"rtl":"ltr"}static createInstance(){return new z(arguments.length>0&&void 0!==arguments[0]?arguments[0]:{},arguments.length>1?arguments[1]:void 0)}cloneInstance(){let e=arguments.length>0&&void 0!==arguments[0]?arguments[0]:{},t=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]?arguments[1]:J;const s=e.forkResourceStore;s&&delete e.forkResourceStore;const i={...this.options,...e,isClone:!0},n=new z(i);void 0===e.debug&&void 0===e.prefix||(n.logger=n.logger.clone(e));return["store","services","language"].forEach((e=>{n[e]=this[e]})),n.services={...this.services},n.services.utils={hasLoadedNamespace:n.hasLoadedNamespace.bind(n)},s&&(n.store=new O(this.store.data,i),n.services.resourceStore=n.store),n.translator=new P(n.services,i),n.translator.on("*",(function(e){for(var t=arguments.length,s=new Array(t>1?t-1:0),i=1;i<t;i++)s[i-1]=arguments[i];n.emit(e,...s)})),n.init(i,t),n.translator.options=i,n.translator.backendConnector.services.utils={hasLoadedNamespace:n.hasLoadedNamespace.bind(n)},n}toJSON(){return{options:this.options,store:this.store,language:this.language,languages:this.languages,resolvedLanguage:this.resolvedLanguage}}}const q=z.createInstance();q.createInstance=z.createInstance;q.createInstance,q.dir,q.init,q.loadResources,q.reloadResources,q.use,q.changeLanguage,q.getFixedT,q.t,q.exists,q.setDefaultNamespace,q.hasLoadedNamespace,q.loadNamespaces,q.loadLanguages}},function(e){var t;t=51250,e(e.s=t)}]); //# sourceMappingURL=i18n_init-9f062a0de30195f0d756.js.map //]]> </script> <script src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static/tc/runtime-8563a1641acaeb567def.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" data-vendor="c:smartocto-GJ7CA7CP"> var _ain = { access_level: "free", article_type: "news_item", authors: "Universitat de les Illes Balears", id: "2743", maincontent: ".content-body", postid: "243624", pubdate: "2024-11-18T18:23:32Z", reader_type: "anonymous", sections: "es>Medioambiente + Energía", tags: "inundaciones, alerta temprana, riesgos naturales, DANA", title: "Así funciona un sistema de alerta temprana ante inundaciones &quot;imposibles&quot;", }; (function (d, s) { var sf = d.createElement(s); sf.type = 'text/javascript'; sf.async = true; sf.src = (('https:' == d.location.protocol) ? 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