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Now comes the hard part. - ABC News</title> <meta data-react-helmet="true" name="description" content="As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="keywords" content="Article, 115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="theme-color" content="#fff"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="copyright" content="2024 ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="author" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="robots" content="index, follow"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:admins" content="704409894"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:app_id" content="4942312939"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="fb_title" content="Republicans won the House. 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Now comes the hard part."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:description" content="As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:image" content="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/e5680d54-a72e-4e7f-900a-67185831a540/538_HouseElectionResults_v01_DP_1731520997359_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="lastPublishedDate" content="2024-11-13T21:50:16Z"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="article:opinion" content="false"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="article:content_tier" content="free"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="86680728811"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="59306617060"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="214832449817"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="66660497800"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="184096565021911"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="295479040495545"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="163497464933"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="149475666523"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="1161108697272926"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="263058762303"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="fb:pages" content="55845270277"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:name:iphone" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:id:iphone" content="300255638"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:url:iphone" content="abcnewsiphone://link/prism-story,115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:name:ipad" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:id:ipad" content="306934135"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:url:ipad" content="abcnewsipad://link/prism-story,115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:name:googleplay" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:id:googleplay" content="com.abc.abcnews"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" name="twitter:app:url:googleplay" content="https://abcnews.go.com/538/republicans-won-house-now-hard-part/story?id=115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:site" content="@ABC"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:creator" content="ABC News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:title" content="Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:description" content="As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ABC News is reporting that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208."/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:url" content="https://abcnews.go.com/538/republicans-won-house-now-hard-part/story?id=115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:image" content="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/e5680d54-a72e-4e7f-900a-67185831a540/538_HouseElectionResults_v01_DP_1731520997359_hpMain_16x9.jpg?w=1600"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:image:alt" content=""/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:image:width" content="640"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="twitter:image:height" content="360"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:iphone:url" content="abcnewsiphone://link/prism-story,115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:iphone:app_store_id" content="300255638"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:iphone:app_name" content="ABC News - Breaking US &amp; World News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:ipad:url" content="abcnewsipad://link/prism-story,115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:ipad:app_store_id" content="380520716"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:ipad:app_name" content="ABC News for ipad"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:android:url" content="android-app://com.abc.abcnews/abcnews/abcnews.go.com/538/republicans-won-house-now-hard-part/story?id=115777126"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:android:app_name" content="ABC News Breaking Latest News"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:android:package" content="com.abc.abcnews"/><meta data-react-helmet="true" property="al:web:url" content="https://abcnews.go.com/538/republicans-won-house-now-hard-part/story?id=115777126"/> <script data-react-helmet="true" src="https://scripts.webcontentassessor.com/scripts/0b90f464007ee375f4e9cd06c3914e59274887f92e97c606a62fdf9e3a4728b5"></script><script data-react-helmet="true" async="true" src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=DC-4139589"></script><script data-react-helmet="true" src="https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/js/floodlight_global.js"></script><script data-react-helmet="true" type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"WebSite","name":"Story republicans won house now hard part","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/republicans-won-house-now-hard-part/story?id=115777126"}</script><script data-react-helmet="true" type="application/ld+json">{"@context":"http://schema.org/","@type":"NewsArticle","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/republicans-won-house-now-hard-part/story?id=115777126","@type":"WebPage"},"alternativeHeadline":"The small GOP margin will make it hard to govern and keep the House in 2026.","articleSection":"538","author":[{"name":"Nathaniel Rakich","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/nathaniel_rakich","@type":"Person"},{"name":"Amina Brown","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/amina_brown","@type":"Person"}],"dateline":"","dateModified":"2024-11-13T21:50:16.000Z","datePublished":"2024-11-13T21:23:00.000Z","description":"The small GOP margin will make it hard to govern and keep the House in 2026.","headline":"Republicans won the House. 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style="--spacing-top:40px;--spacing-bottom:32px;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:24px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:32px;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:24px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div class="kCTVx qtHut lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC " data-testid="prism-headline"><h1 class="vMjAx gjbzK tntuS eHrJ mTgUP "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.</span></h1><p class="jxTEW Poyse uieav lqtkC HkWF HfYhe kGyAC "><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">The small GOP margin will make it hard to govern and keep the House in 2026.</span></p></div><div class="QHblV nkdHX kvZxL hTosT whbOj " data-testid="prism-byline"><div class="VZTD mLASH OcxMG oJce "><div class="kKfXc ubAkB VZTD rEPuv "><div class="TQPvQ fVlAg HUcap kxY REjk UamUc WxHIR HhZOB yaUf VOJBn KMpjV XSbaH Umfib ukdDD "><span class="tChGB zbFav ">By</span><span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/author/nathaniel_rakich">Nathaniel Rakich</a><span class="EpNlu "> and </span></span><span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/author/amina_brown">Amina Brown</a></span><span><span class="EpNlu "> </span><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.com/538"><span class="YKjhS "><img alt="via five thirty eight logo" class="awXxV CfkUa EknAv NwgWd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg"/></span></a></span></div><div class="VZTD mLASH gpiba "><div class="xAPpq JQYD ZdbeE jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">November 13, 2024, 4:23 PM</div></div></div></div><div class="RwkLV Wowzl FokqZ LhXlJ FjRYD toBqx " data-testid="prism-share"><div class="JpUfa aYoBt "><ul class="MZaCt dUXCH nyWZo RnMws Hdwln WBHfo tAchw UDeQM XMkl NUfbq kqfZ "><li class="WEJto "><button aria-label="Share Story on Facebook" class="theme-EWITS mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf ZXRVe jIRH NoTgg OJpwZ uklrk wSPfd ofvJb nMRSd YIauu gGlNh ARCOA kyjTO xqlN aANqO aNnIu GDslh 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class="Caption__Wrapper"><div class="Caption"><div class="Caption__TextWrapper"><div class="Caption__Text" aria-live="polite"><span class="Truncate Truncate--collapsed"><span><span class="RichText">Republicans are set to control a very narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2024 election.</span></span></span></div></div><span aria-label="ABC News Photo Illustration/Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/Adobe stock" class="RichText Caption__Credit">ABC News Photo Illustration/Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/Adobe stock</span></div></div></div></aside></div></div></div></div><div class="ScrollSpy_container"><span></span></div><div class="XQpSH " data-testid="prism-divider"></div><div class="xvlfx ZRifP TKoO eaKKC EcdEg bOdfO " data-testid="prism-article-body"><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao MvWXB TjIXL aGjvy ebVHC">We were expecting a <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/538s-final-forecasts-2024-election/story?id=115511051" target="_blank">close election for the U.S. House of Representatives</a> — and that’s exactly what we got. It took until Wednesday, Nov. 13 — eight days after Election Day — for ABC News to report that Republicans are projected to hold onto the chamber. And while we don’t yet know what the exact seat margin will be, we do know that it will be another small Republican majority — which could make it difficult to pass much of President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">How many seats will Republicans win?</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-house-election-results-live-map" target="_blank">ABC News is reporting</a> that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">We still don’t know the winner in nine seats, five of which Democrats currently lead in and are likely to prevail in. That would take them up to 213 seats. Of the other four seats, Republicans look favored in Iowa’s 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s 802-vote lead is likely to hold up even if Democrats request a recount, and Alaska’s at-large district, where Republican Nick Begich has a large enough lead that it will probably withstand the redistributions that happen as part of ranked-choice voting on Nov. 20. However, there is genuine suspense over who will win California’s 13th and 45th districts; Republicans currently have more votes counted there, but Democrats have been closing the gap as more ballots have been counted.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Add it all up, and we expect that Republicans will finish with a House majority in the range of 220 to 222 seats. That’s virtually unchanged from the 221-214 majority that they went into the election with.</p><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Republicans’ path to victory</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">That doesn’t mean there wasn’t some churn under the surface, though. So far, Republicans have flipped seven seats from blue to red, and Democrats have flipped six seats from red to blue.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">There are three clear explanations for most of these flips. First, five of these seats were virtually predestined to change hands because they were <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/redistricting-play-key-role-fight-control-house-2024/story?id=114640271" target="_blank">redrawn to be safely Republican or Democratic</a>. In North Carolina, Republicans enacted a new congressional map that was heavily biased toward their party and turned three Democratic-held districts — the 6th, 13th and 14th — deep red. Alabama and Louisiana also adopted new congressional maps after the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/supreme-court-voting-rights-redistricting-implications/" target="_blank">Supreme Court affirmed</a> that the Voting Rights Act <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.publicmapping.org/what-is-redistricting/redistricting-criteria-the-voting-rights-act" target="_blank">requires states to draw districts</a> where nonwhite voters are the dominant voting bloc whenever <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.justice.gov/crt/case-document/file/1429826/dl" target="_blank">reasonably possible</a>. As a consequence, Alabama’s 2nd District and Louisiana’s 6th District went from majority-white, solidly Republican seats to majority-Black, solidly Democratic seats.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Second, Democrats flipped a handful of seats in New York. The Empire State was also redistricted earlier this year, but its map didn’t dramatically change. Instead, these flips can be chalked up to the fact that New York Republicans won several House seats in 2022 that they had no business holding, based on the districts’ partisanships. That year, a <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rj0Tj8dnrYw" target="_blank">localized</a> red wave hit New York, carrying former Rep. Lee Zeldin to within 6 percentage points of the governorship and helping Republicans <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/nyregion/ny-house-races-redistricting.html" target="_blank">flip four House seats</a>. As a result, Republicans this year were defending seats like the 19th District (which would have voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 by 4 points <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020" target="_blank">under the current lines</a>), 22nd District (Biden by 11 points) and 4th District (Biden by 15 points). Democrats flipped all three seats last week.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Third, Republicans gained two seats in Pennsylvania and one in Michigan — two presidential swing states where Trump did a little bit better than expected. While we don’t yet know who carried these districts on the presidential level in 2024, Biden carried the current Michigan 7th and Pennsylvania 7th by less than 1 point in 2020, and Trump carried Pennsylvania’s 8th by 3 points. Given the shift toward Trump in those states this year, it seems likely that he carried all three districts this time around, and <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-is-partisan-and-correlated-and-boring/" target="_blank">House results often mirror the top of the ticket</a>.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Otherwise, virtually every other seat went the way that our <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house/" target="_blank">preelection forecast</a> predicted. So far, every seat that we had rated as “Lean,” “Likely” or “Solid” Republican has gone red, and every seat that we had rated as “Likely” or “Solid” Democratic has gone blue.* Toss-up seats have split 2-1 in favor of Democrats, while the only upsets so far have been in our “Lean Democratic” category: Republicans won Colorado’s 8th District, Nebraska’s 2nd District and the two aforementioned Pennsylvania seats despite being down in the polls there.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">The small GOP majority could spell trouble ahead</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Assuming Republicans do end up with something in the neighborhood of 220-222 seats, their House win may not feel like much of a victory. In January 2023, Republicans walked into the Capitol with a 222-213 majority and proceeded to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kevin-mccarthys-job-just-got-harder/" target="_blank">take 15 ballots to elect a speaker</a>. That speaker then <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/effort-remove-house-speaker-succeeded-history/story?id=103688484" target="_blank">lost his job in Octobe</a><a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/effort-remove-house-speaker-succeeded-history/story?id=103688484" target="_blank">r</a>, and it <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/house-republicans-speaker-vote-johnson.html" target="_blank">took 22 days to replace</a> him. On multiple occasions, new Speaker Mike Johnson had to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/21/mike-johnson-democrats-help-congress-00148129" target="_blank">rely on Democrats</a> to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/24/government-shutdown-johnson-democrats/" target="_blank">pass foundational legislation</a>, and the 118th Congress will likely go down in history as <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/08/08/congress-limps-toward-the-end-of-a-disappointing-session-with-just-78-laws-to-show/" target="_blank">one of the least productive on record</a>.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="min-height:250px;transition:min-height 0.3s linear 0s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-box" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-box ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-box" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-box"></div></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Having failed to pick up many (any?) seats in this election, House Republicans could once again have trouble governing in 2025-26. Their saving grace may be the fact that <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/member-congress-voted-biden-2023/story?id=106718543" target="_blank">parties in power tend to be more cohesive than parties out of power</a>: With Republicans also in control of the White House and Senate, the House GOP will <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-house-democrats-may-be-more-united-than-they-seem/" target="_blank">have a strong incentive</a> to pass legislation that makes the new administration look effective — or else risk the wrath of Trump himself.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">But with such a narrow majority, it will take only a handful of dissenters to tank a bill, and many members of the House Freedom Caucus have <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-freedom-caucus-obamacare-236443" target="_blank">clashed with Trump before</a> when his wishes have conflicted with their hardline stances. And it’s possible that the GOP’s majority will temporarily shrink even more in the first few months of 2025 since at least two Republican representatives <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-selects-rep-elise-stefanik-ambassador/story?id=115725527" target="_blank">may resign</a> in order to <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-picks-rep-mike-waltz-former-green-beret/story?id=115753630" target="_blank">take jobs in the Trump administration</a>.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">Plus, Republicans would be wise to do all their legislating in the next two years, because they probably won’t have the chance after that. The small GOP majority makes it likely that Democrats will take back the House in 2026. Since the end of World War II, the president’s party has <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm/" target="_blank">lost an average of 25 House seats</a> in midterm elections.**</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy"></p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY HBwxt zLuD HFyFM WKoLf HQvCp snoSy WbXIs SuvVj Podsg mLOi ZUCFI Ozsym KXQHp GZBRS gcZFc gHcZe mnbGs NPgGo mpUfs Jdjmq "><div><div class="InlineImage GpQCA lZur asrEW " data-testid="prism-inline-image"><figure class="kzIjN GNmeK pYrtp dSqFO " data-testid="prism-figure"><div class="GpQCA lZur " style="padding-bottom:200%" data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><picture data-testid="prism-picture"><source media="(max-width: 414px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=375, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=750 2x"/><source media="(min-width: 415px)" srcSet="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=750, https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=1500 2x"/><img alt="PHOTO: A graph that shows which parties have controlled the presidency, Senate and House since 1981." class="hsDdd vBqtr KrDt itslR SjwtZ hakZw HlUVI " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" loading="lazy" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg"/></picture></div></div><figcaption><div class="nMMea bNYiy Mjgpa dGwha DDmxa jgKNG RGHCC aBIU PriDW lZur " data-testid="prism-caption"><div class="HXPPJ barbu yKsXL IzgMt VcHIt uhSzI YGNMU cRAsZ xqMcl QtRul "><span class="hsDdd OOSI GpQCA lZur VlFaz " data-testid="prism-truncate"><span><span class="gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Trifectas are usually short-lived</span></span></span></div><div class="qinlA IpWvx oqZz tylGM lyWxS nWcVF UhTug PPcLh "><span class="YNujN JGtjI aZFDu rkKLh gtOSm FbbUW tUtYa vOCwz EQwFq yCufu eEak Qmvg nyTIa SRXVc vzLa jgBfc WXDas CiUCW kqbG zrdEG txGfn ygKVe BbezD UOtxr CVfpq xijV soGRS XgdC sEIlf daWqJ ">Amina Brown for 538.</span></div></div></figcaption></figure></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">That’s a big part of the reason parties rarely hold a federal government “trifecta” — simultaneous control of the presidency, Senate and House — for longer than two years. Since 1981, every president to enter office with a trifecta lost it in the next midterm.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"></div></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy"></p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">The past is no guarantee of the future, but some back-of-the-napkin math suggests Democrats have a clear path back to the majority in 2026. Based on election results as of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, Republicans are winning 12 districts by 3 points or less. They are winning 17 districts by 6 points or less. And they are winning 23 districts by 9 points or less.</p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO fnRUo pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW RMeqy daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc MENS nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY rPLsU iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM IEgzD OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD VWDdR ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV GPGwb oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div class=" " data-testid="prism-static-embed" role="region"><div class="kUPWF evNvN "></div></div></div><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">According to the <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/vote-tracker/2024/house" target="_blank">Cook Political Report</a>, Republicans are currently winning the national popular vote for the House by about 4 points — although, with many votes still uncounted in heavily Democratic California, this will probably eventually narrow to about 3 points. But in 2018 — the other midterm election with Trump as president — Democrats won the House popular vote by 9 points. We may not see such a dramatic swing in 2026, and not every district will swing by the same amount, but it’s easy to see a world where Democrats take back the majority without breaking much of a sweat.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">In a fiercely fought 2024 race for control of the House, Republicans came out on top. They can rightly take a lot of satisfaction from that. But recent history suggests their time in control of the chamber may be like philosopher <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://yalebooksblog.co.uk/2013/04/05/thomas-hobbes-solitary-poor-nasty-brutish-and-short/" target="_blank">Thomas Hobbes’s description</a> of life without government: nasty, brutish and short.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy"><em>Tia Yang contributed research.</em></p><div class="oLzSq QrHMO GbsKS pvsTF EhJPu vPlOC zNYgW OsTsW AMhAA daRVX ISNQ sKyCY eRftA acPPc ebfE nFwaT MCnQE mEeeY SmBjI xegrY VvTxJ iulOd NIuqO zzscu lzDCc aHUBM hbvnu OjMNy eQqcx SVqKB GQmdz jaoD iShaE ONJdw vrZxD OnRTz gbbfF roDbV kRoBe oMlSS gfNzt oJhud eXZcf zhVlX "><div data-testid="prism-ad-wrapper" style="transition:min-height 0.3s linear 1s" data-ad-placeholder="true"><div data-box-type="fitt-adbox-fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-testid="prism-ad"><div class="Ad fitt-article-inline-outstream ad-slot " data-slot-type="fitt-article-inline-outstream" data-slot-kvps="pos=fitt-article-inline-outstream-2"></div></div></div></div><h2 class="RxNCg ykkUm PvZ nIjPJ PMXYp LmsHF SfAHY mNgye lNbol LBPRq">Footnotes</h2><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC TjIXL aGjvy">*Ironically, this is not what we wanted to see: Statistically, seats with a 60-75 percent chance of going to one party (the definition of our “Lean” category) should go to the opposing party 25-40 percent of the time, and seats with a 75-98 percent chance of going to one party (the definition of our “Likely” category) should go to the other one 2-25 percent of the time. That didn’t happen, suggesting our forecast could have been better calibrated.</p><p class="EkqkG IGXmU nlgHS yuUao lqtkC eTIW sUzSN">**Compared with how many seats the party held going into Election Day, not how many seats it won in the previous election. This is why our numbers may differ slightly from <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections" target="_blank">other</a> <a class="zZygg UbGlr iFzkS qdXbA WCDhQ DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/vital-statistics-on-congress/" target="_blank">sources</a>. We also count vacant seats as belonging to the party that previously held them.</p></div><div><div data-testid="prism-tags"><h2 class="QOIir HJolv pZjYK JKlkC RZhHM ">Related Topics</h2><ul class="VZTD UeCOM dAmzA ltDkr qBPOY uoPjL "><li class=" "><a class="theme-iPcRv theme-HReFq mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zYXIH jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ eqFg wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT LaUnX EgONj ibBnq kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX oIWqB mzm MbcTC sXtkB yayQB vXSTR ENhiS dQa-Du SVBll bpBbX GpQCA tuAKv xTell wdAqb ZqGqs LVAIE TnrRA uECag DcwSV XnBOJ cELRj SUAFz XzYk zkmjG aSyef pFen hoNVj TQOOL Haltu NafGB KpEhF jyjDy kZHqU FZKIw QddLR SKDYB UmcQM giepU cTjQC aRMla MMxXy fFMcX PbMFf hJRbU MRTyf iFJTR koyYF TkdYt DZNRX MALjb VUFMN " data-testid="prism-Tag" href="/alerts/538" data-pos="0"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE ">538</span></a></li><li class=" "><a class="theme-iPcRv theme-HReFq mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zYXIH jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ eqFg wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT LaUnX EgONj ibBnq kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX oIWqB mzm MbcTC sXtkB yayQB vXSTR ENhiS dQa-Du SVBll bpBbX GpQCA tuAKv xTell wdAqb ZqGqs LVAIE TnrRA uECag DcwSV XnBOJ cELRj SUAFz XzYk zkmjG aSyef pFen hoNVj TQOOL Haltu NafGB KpEhF jyjDy kZHqU FZKIw QddLR SKDYB UmcQM giepU cTjQC aRMla MMxXy fFMcX PbMFf hJRbU MRTyf iFJTR koyYF TkdYt DZNRX MALjb VUFMN " data-testid="prism-Tag" href="/alerts/GOP" data-pos="1"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE ">GOP</span></a></li><li class=" "><a class="theme-iPcRv theme-HReFq mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zYXIH jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ eqFg wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT LaUnX EgONj ibBnq kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX oIWqB mzm MbcTC sXtkB yayQB vXSTR ENhiS dQa-Du SVBll bpBbX GpQCA tuAKv xTell wdAqb ZqGqs LVAIE TnrRA uECag DcwSV XnBOJ cELRj SUAFz XzYk zkmjG aSyef pFen hoNVj TQOOL Haltu NafGB KpEhF jyjDy kZHqU FZKIw QddLR SKDYB UmcQM giepU cTjQC aRMla MMxXy fFMcX PbMFf hJRbU MRTyf iFJTR koyYF TkdYt DZNRX MALjb VUFMN " data-testid="prism-Tag" href="/alerts/Congress" data-pos="2"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE ">Congress</span></a></li></ul></div></div><div class="Article__Footer Article__Footer--news"><div class="Article__Footer--items flex flex-wrap flex-no-wrap items-center justify-between"><section class="Share flex flex-no-wrap"></section></div><div class="StoryDivider StoryDivider--logo"><hr/><img alt="ABC News" class="Image Logo Logo__xxxl" data-mptype="image" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7"/><hr/></div></div><div class="taboola bmjsw lZur " data-testid="prism-taboola" style="min-height:800px"><div id="taboola-below-article-thumbnails"></div></div></div></div><div class="theme-e FITT_Article_main__sidebar oBTii mrzah mZWbG RCVjw fjcc BFuEm " data-testid="prism-GridColumn" style="--grid-column-span-lg:9;--grid-column-span-xl:8;--grid-column-span-xxl:8;--grid-column-start-xxs:auto;--grid-column-start-xs:auto;--grid-column-start-sm:auto;--grid-column-start-md:auto;--grid-column-start-lg:16;--grid-column-start-xl:17;--grid-column-start-xxl:17"><div style="--spacing-top:48px;--spacing-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-top:initial;--spacing-child-bottom:40px;--spacing-firstChild-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-lastChild-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-bottom:initial;--spacing-compact-top:24px;--spacing-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-firstChild-compact-bottom:initial;--spacing-child-compact-top:initial;--spacing-child-compact-bottom:40px;--spacing-lastChild-compact-top:initial;--spacing-lastChild-compact-bottom:initial" class="dHdHP jLREf zXXje aGO eCClZ nTLv jLsYA gmuro TOSFd VmeZt sCkVm hkQai wGrlE MUuGM fciaN qQjt DhNVo Tgcqk IGLAf tWjkv "><div><section class="CHWlW ZgZTu FlDNH hQfuy feniZ wBpop uAyYK yJYJo OGgqj tQHio PCVZs Kiog iKqXF eeiyR " data-testid="prism-collection"><header class="mLASH VZTD bhaVx "><div><h2 class="KuBvM RTkZF lFzlq GbVC HkWF exKgG kGyAC SwCrv ">Popular Reads</h2></div></header><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/people-trump-picked-key-positions-115741492" aria-label="Here are the people Trump has picked for key positions so far 2024-11-11T18:17:59Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/b932ba77-6158-47a1-a842-2b2b31905279/wirestory_243d73610b03a3ee18c4d5f68756af7c_square.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="HerearethepeopleTrumheadline">Here are the people Trump has picked for key positions so far</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="HerearethepeopleTrumpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 11, 1:17 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-chose-trump/story?id=115827243" aria-label="Why voters chose Trump 2024-11-14T21:07:42Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/a1b380d8-e17b-4024-9841-1dd17c7a70a5/PollaPalooza_16x9_v01_DG_1731516166285_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="WhyvoterschoseTrumpheadline">Why voters chose Trump</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="WhyvoterschoseTrumppubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 14, 4:07 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-make-decision-releasing-sean-diddy-combs-bail/story?id=116146704" aria-label="Sean &#x27;Diddy&#x27; Combs to learn bail news next week 2024-11-22T21:23:00Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/cad93fee-9a76-4f36-a33f-b36f6db1e9fe/diddy-sean-combos-assault-ap-lv-241121_1732226702006_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="SeanDiddyCombstolearheadline">Sean &#x27;Diddy&#x27; Combs to learn bail news next week</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="SeanDiddyCombstolearpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 22, 4:23 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="rRTs EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/ukraine-russia-icbm-launch-intercontinental-ballistic-missile/story?id=116085317" aria-label="Russia launches new IRBM at Ukraine 2024-11-21T21:41:00Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/f00725fa-d486-4fcf-99fe-e6ba8a4ba9ed/dnipro-strike_1732185028735_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="RussialaunchesnewIRBheadline">Russia launches new IRBM at Ukraine</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="RussialaunchesnewIRBpubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 21, 4:41 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div><div class="EwJTR UpiKB sKbok RsAxh msYPt zKjNI SXHxp OaElp halTF KzevM LFuuA xTOeQ jLoop liAe uMOq zYIfP pYgZk Mxrkk VZTD lZur TPpRg NoUSU igcMP DtJWr QgBvn DFdlJ QGHKv VuOFc " data-testid="prism-card"><a class="iVcn UbGlr ibBnq qdXbA avodi DbOXS tqUtK GpWVU iJYzE QGHKv HNQqj ICwhc Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF " data-testid="prism-linkbase" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/matt-gaetz-return-congress-after-withdrawing-ag-pick/story?id=116108799" aria-label="Can Matt Gaetz return to Congress? 2024-11-21T22:16:00Z"><div class="hsDdd GpQCA lZur BOsoU YMZw dihEb srtah LmIPo JzlZQ qrShQ iRFVw ZZxEf zHngH jCA-DP TucPs XifJd MWLZF PEVz VbrfA zZsl kjmkg OwbFk QuuaM cBQOR "><div class="GpQCA lZur oVsVV nFtJ GHKp awJgN EuJtJ " data-testid="prism-ratio-frame"><div class="FvQLF iLTd NqeUA UzzHi iWsMV "><img alt="" class="hsDdd " data-testid="prism-image" draggable="false" src="https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/10c0817c-55ef-4f49-9afe-dc5bb6df1fae/matt-gaetz-3-ap-gmh-241113_1731533167756_hpMain_1x1.jpg?w=208"/></div></div></div><div class="QGHKv iVcn avodi rEPuv ICwhc ibBnq Bkgbl ZLXw kSqqG rEBmF "><div class="VZTD rEPuv QXDKT pJYTK " data-testid="prism-meta"><div class="CJAFL gDeX "><h2 class="PFoxV eBpQD rcQBv bQtjQ lQUdN GpQCA mAkiF FvMyr WvoqU nPLLM tuAKv " id="CanMattGaetzreturntoheadline">Can Matt Gaetz return to Congress?</h2></div></div><div class="RVPG cTzRP UzlIl VXIwh hCp lZur YOODG pJYTK "><div class="VZTD rEPuv ltDkr QXDKT "><ul class="tfFRZ zOGtW VZTD UeCOM RzKoN JEct YaqUo BedyR UoVV WtEci dSKvB seFhp "><li class="tuAKv fzeHv eSWW VUFMN SdBAb AQSxL xBxr " id="CanMattGaetzreturntopubDate"><div class="theme-JfHmw theme-aMvDO mLASH egFzk qXWHA ScoIf zRKnP jIRH wNxoc OJpwZ BOFPn wSPfd ofvJb bMrzT RGoaN cvDzE ARCOA kyjTO lvyBv aANqO aNnIu GDslh LjPJo RpDvg YYtC rTpcz EDgo SIwmX sWWJW mzm MbcTC bVept SEPRz LRqoM kzZQf xGdAb hBvCD fQMZM tVKun zUtsb yHyni pzxXD AbcH " data-testid="prism-Badge"><span class="QXDKT rGjeC tuAKv iMbiE "><span class="awXxV jTKbV zIIsP xpuOU pCRh ">Nov 21, 5:16 PM</span></span></div></li></ul></div></div></div></a></div></section></div><div class="LivePromotion LivePromotion--centered"><div class="LivePromotion--title--container"><span class="circle"></span><h3 class="LivePromotion--title">ABC News Live</h3></div><figure class="Image aspect-ratio--parent LivePromotion--image"><div class="RatioFrame aspect-ratio--16x9"></div><div class="Image__Wrapper aspect-ratio--child"><img alt="ABC News 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It took until Wednesday, Nov. 13 — eight days after Election Day — for ABC News to report that Republicans are projected to hold onto the chamber. And while we don’t yet know what the exact seat margin will be, we do know that it will be another small Republican majority — which could make it difficult to pass much of President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda."]},{"type":"h2","content":["How many seats will Republicans win?"]},{"type":"p","content":["As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, ",{"type":"a","content":["ABC News is reporting"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-house-election-results-live-map","target":"_blank"}}," that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22The%20current%20balance%20of%20power%20in%20the%20House%22%20aria-label%3D%22Stacked%20Bars%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-PzC5t%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PzC5t/1/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22329%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%0A%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["We still don’t know the winner in nine seats, five of which Democrats currently lead in and are likely to prevail in. That would take them up to 213 seats. Of the other four seats, Republicans look favored in Iowa’s 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s 802-vote lead is likely to hold up even if Democrats request a recount, and Alaska’s at-large district, where Republican Nick Begich has a large enough lead that it will probably withstand the redistributions that happen as part of ranked-choice voting on Nov. 20. However, there is genuine suspense over who will win California’s 13th and 45th districts; Republicans currently have more votes counted there, but Democrats have been closing the gap as more ballots have been counted."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22Several%20House%20races%20are%20still%20up%20in%20the%20air%22%20aria-label%3D%22Table%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-jXp35%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/jXp35/1/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22466%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%0A%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["Add it all up, and we expect that Republicans will finish with a House majority in the range of 220 to 222 seats. That’s virtually unchanged from the 221-214 majority that they went into the election with."]},{"type":"h2","content":["Republicans’ path to victory"]},{"type":"p","content":["That doesn’t mean there wasn’t some churn under the surface, though. So far, Republicans have flipped seven seats from blue to red, and Democrats have flipped six seats from red to blue."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22Which%20districts%20have%20flipped%20so%20far%22%20aria-label%3D%22Table%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-s28Cm%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/s28Cm/1/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22587%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%0A%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["There are three clear explanations for most of these flips. First, five of these seats were virtually predestined to change hands because they were ",{"type":"a","content":["redrawn to be safely Republican or Democratic"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/redistricting-play-key-role-fight-control-house-2024/story?id=114640271","target":"_blank"}},". In North Carolina, Republicans enacted a new congressional map that was heavily biased toward their party and turned three Democratic-held districts — the 6th, 13th and 14th — deep red. Alabama and Louisiana also adopted new congressional maps after the ",{"type":"a","content":["Supreme Court affirmed"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/supreme-court-voting-rights-redistricting-implications/","target":"_blank"}}," that the Voting Rights Act ",{"type":"a","content":["requires states to draw districts"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.publicmapping.org/what-is-redistricting/redistricting-criteria-the-voting-rights-act","target":"_blank"}}," where nonwhite voters are the dominant voting bloc whenever ",{"type":"a","content":["reasonably possible"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.justice.gov/crt/case-document/file/1429826/dl","target":"_blank"}},". As a consequence, Alabama’s 2nd District and Louisiana’s 6th District went from majority-white, solidly Republican seats to majority-Black, solidly Democratic seats."]},{"type":"p","content":["Second, Democrats flipped a handful of seats in New York. The Empire State was also redistricted earlier this year, but its map didn’t dramatically change. Instead, these flips can be chalked up to the fact that New York Republicans won several House seats in 2022 that they had no business holding, based on the districts’ partisanships. That year, a ",{"type":"a","content":["localized"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rj0Tj8dnrYw","target":"_blank"}}," red wave hit New York, carrying former Rep. Lee Zeldin to within 6 percentage points of the governorship and helping Republicans ",{"type":"a","content":["flip four House seats"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/nyregion/ny-house-races-redistricting.html","target":"_blank"}},". As a result, Republicans this year were defending seats like the 19th District (which would have voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 by 4 points ",{"type":"a","content":["under the current lines"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020","target":"_blank"}},"), 22nd District (Biden by 11 points) and 4th District (Biden by 15 points). Democrats flipped all three seats last week."]},{"type":"p","content":["Third, Republicans gained two seats in Pennsylvania and one in Michigan — two presidential swing states where Trump did a little bit better than expected. While we don’t yet know who carried these districts on the presidential level in 2024, Biden carried the current Michigan 7th and Pennsylvania 7th by less than 1 point in 2020, and Trump carried Pennsylvania’s 8th by 3 points. Given the shift toward Trump in those states this year, it seems likely that he carried all three districts this time around, and ",{"type":"a","content":["House results often mirror the top of the ticket"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-is-partisan-and-correlated-and-boring/","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"p","content":["Otherwise, virtually every other seat went the way that our ",{"type":"a","content":["preelection forecast"],"attrs":{"href":"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house/","target":"_blank"}}," predicted. So far, every seat that we had rated as “Lean,” “Likely” or “Solid” Republican has gone red, and every seat that we had rated as “Likely” or “Solid” Democratic has gone blue.* Toss-up seats have split 2-1 in favor of Democrats, while the only upsets so far have been in our “Lean Democratic” category: Republicans won Colorado’s 8th District, Nebraska’s 2nd District and the two aforementioned Pennsylvania seats despite being down in the polls there."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22How%20538%27s%20House%20forecast%20performed%22%20aria-label%3D%22Stacked%20Columns%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-GOmWl%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GOmWl/1/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22523%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%0A%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"h2","content":["The small GOP majority could spell trouble ahead"]},{"type":"p","content":["Assuming Republicans do end up with something in the neighborhood of 220-222 seats, their House win may not feel like much of a victory. In January 2023, Republicans walked into the Capitol with a 222-213 majority and proceeded to ",{"type":"a","content":["take 15 ballots to elect a speaker"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kevin-mccarthys-job-just-got-harder/","target":"_blank"}},". That speaker then ",{"type":"a","content":["lost his job in Octobe"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/effort-remove-house-speaker-succeeded-history/story?id=103688484","target":"_blank"}},{"type":"a","content":["r"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/effort-remove-house-speaker-succeeded-history/story?id=103688484","target":"_blank"}},", and it ",{"type":"a","content":["took 22 days to replace"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/house-republicans-speaker-vote-johnson.html","target":"_blank"}}," him. On multiple occasions, new Speaker Mike Johnson had to ",{"type":"a","content":["rely on Democrats"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/21/mike-johnson-democrats-help-congress-00148129","target":"_blank"}}," to ",{"type":"a","content":["pass foundational legislation"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/24/government-shutdown-johnson-democrats/","target":"_blank"}},", and the 118th Congress will likely go down in history as ",{"type":"a","content":["one of the least productive on record"],"attrs":{"href":"https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/08/08/congress-limps-toward-the-end-of-a-disappointing-session-with-just-78-laws-to-show/","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"type":"fitt-article-inline-box","className":"fitt-article-inline-box"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"size":[0,250]},"regular":{"size":[0,250]}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"p","content":["Having failed to pick up many (any?) seats in this election, House Republicans could once again have trouble governing in 2025-26. Their saving grace may be the fact that ",{"type":"a","content":["parties in power tend to be more cohesive than parties out of power"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/member-congress-voted-biden-2023/story?id=106718543","target":"_blank"}},": With Republicans also in control of the White House and Senate, the House GOP will ",{"type":"a","content":["have a strong incentive"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-house-democrats-may-be-more-united-than-they-seem/","target":"_blank"}}," to pass legislation that makes the new administration look effective — or else risk the wrath of Trump himself."]},{"type":"p","content":["But with such a narrow majority, it will take only a handful of dissenters to tank a bill, and many members of the House Freedom Caucus have ",{"type":"a","content":["clashed with Trump before"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-freedom-caucus-obamacare-236443","target":"_blank"}}," when his wishes have conflicted with their hardline stances. And it’s possible that the GOP’s majority will temporarily shrink even more in the first few months of 2025 since at least two Republican representatives ",{"type":"a","content":["may resign"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-selects-rep-elise-stefanik-ambassador/story?id=115725527","target":"_blank"}}," in order to ",{"type":"a","content":["take jobs in the Trump administration"],"attrs":{"href":"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-picks-rep-mike-waltz-former-green-beret/story?id=115753630","target":"_blank"}},"."]},{"type":"p","content":["Plus, Republicans would be wise to do all their legislating in the next two years, because they probably won’t have the chance after that. The small GOP majority makes it likely that Democrats will take back the House in 2026. Since the end of World War II, the president’s party has ",{"type":"a","content":["lost an average of 25 House seats"],"attrs":{"href":"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm/","target":"_blank"}}," in midterm elections.**"]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22The%20president%27s%20party%20usually%20loses%20House%20seats%22%20aria-label%3D%22Arrow%20Plot%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-M2CC2%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/M2CC2/1/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22530%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%0A%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":[]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Image","props":{"link":{},"caption":{"credit":"Amina Brown for 538.","text":"Trifectas are usually short-lived","lines":4,"showMoreAriaLabel":"Show More about Image Caption"},"image":{"alt":"PHOTO: A graph that shows which parties have controlled the presidency, Senate and House since 1981.","src":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg","loading":"lazy","sources":[{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=375","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=750"},"max":414},{"src":{"x1":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=750","x2":"https://i.abcnewsfe.com/a/83c66e02-0fdd-4ad9-be40-bea3bf85c260/Trifectas-538-jv-241113_1731530359402_hpEmbed_1x2.jpg?w=1500"},"min":415}]},"ratio":"1x2"},"context":{},"config":{"align":"left"}}},{"type":"p","content":["That’s a big part of the reason parties rarely hold a federal government “trifecta” — simultaneous control of the presidency, Senate and House — for longer than two years. Since 1981, every president to enter office with a trifecta lost it in the next midterm."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-1"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"p","content":[]},{"type":"p","content":["The past is no guarantee of the future, but some back-of-the-napkin math suggests Democrats have a clear path back to the majority in 2026. Based on election results as of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, Republicans are winning 12 districts by 3 points or less. They are winning 17 districts by 6 points or less. And they are winning 23 districts by 9 points or less."]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"MarkupEmbed","props":{"markup":"%3Ciframe%20title%3D%22Many%20House%20Republicans%20could%20be%20vulnerable%20in%202026%22%20aria-label%3D%22Table%22%20id%3D%22datawrapper-chart-LrWkR%22%20src%3D%22https%3A//datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LrWkR/2/%22%20scrolling%3D%22no%22%20frameborder%3D%220%22%20style%3D%22width%3A%200%3B%20min-width%3A%20100%25%20%21important%3B%20border%3A%20none%3B%22%20height%3D%22528%22%20data-external%3D%221%22%3E%3C/iframe%3E%3Cscript%20type%3D%22text/javascript%22%3E%21function%28%29%7B%22use%20strict%22%3Bwindow.addEventListener%28%22message%22%2C%28function%28a%29%7Bif%28void%200%21%3D%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29%7Bvar%20e%3Ddocument.querySelectorAll%28%22iframe%22%29%3Bfor%28var%20t%20in%20a.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%29for%28var%20r%3D0%3Br%3Ce.length%3Br++%29if%28e%5Br%5D.contentWindow%3D%3D%3Da.source%29%7Bvar%20i%3Da.data%5B%22datawrapper-height%22%5D%5Bt%5D+%22px%22%3Be%5Br%5D.style.height%3Di%7D%7D%7D%29%29%7D%28%29%3B%0A%3C/script%3E","caption":{"title":"","source":""},"encMethod":"esc","useSafeFrame":false,"requestProps":{"stateKey":"markup"}},"context":{},"config":{"align":"full"}}},{"type":"p","content":["According to the ",{"type":"a","content":["Cook Political Report"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.cookpolitical.com/vote-tracker/2024/house","target":"_blank"}},", Republicans are currently winning the national popular vote for the House by about 4 points — although, with many votes still uncounted in heavily Democratic California, this will probably eventually narrow to about 3 points. But in 2018 — the other midterm election with Trump as president — Democrats won the House popular vote by 9 points. We may not see such a dramatic swing in 2026, and not every district will swing by the same amount, but it’s easy to see a world where Democrats take back the majority without breaking much of a sweat."]},{"type":"p","content":["In a fiercely fought 2024 race for control of the House, Republicans came out on top. They can rightly take a lot of satisfaction from that. But recent history suggests their time in control of the chamber may be like philosopher ",{"type":"a","content":["Thomas Hobbes’s description"],"attrs":{"href":"https://yalebooksblog.co.uk/2013/04/05/thomas-hobbes-solitary-poor-nasty-brutish-and-short/","target":"_blank"}}," of life without government: nasty, brutish and short."]},{"type":"p","content":[{"type":"em","content":["Tia Yang contributed research."]}]},{"type":"inline","content":{"name":"Ad","props":{"ad":{"kvps":{"pos":"fitt-article-inline-outstream-2"},"type":"fitt-article-inline-outstream","className":"fitt-article-inline-outstream"},"placeholders":{"compact":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1},"regular":{"ratio":0.5625,"delay":1}}},"context":{},"config":{}}},{"type":"h2","content":["Footnotes"]},{"type":"p","content":["*Ironically, this is not what we wanted to see: Statistically, seats with a 60-75 percent chance of going to one party (the definition of our “Lean” category) should go to the opposing party 25-40 percent of the time, and seats with a 75-98 percent chance of going to one party (the definition of our “Likely” category) should go to the other one 2-25 percent of the time. That didn’t happen, suggesting our forecast could have been better calibrated."]},{"type":"p","content":["**Compared with how many seats the party held going into Election Day, not how many seats it won in the previous election. This is why our numbers may differ slightly from ",{"type":"a","content":["other"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections","target":"_blank"}}," ",{"type":"a","content":["sources"],"attrs":{"href":"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/vital-statistics-on-congress/","target":"_blank"}},". We also count vacant seats as belonging to the party that previously held them."]}]],"blockquote":{"simple":true,"disableQuotationMark":true},"dateline":"","wordCount":1482},"config":{"gridDisplayMode":"none"},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"RelatedTags","props":{"heading":"Related Topics","tags":[{"label":"538","href":"/alerts/538"},{"label":"GOP","href":"/alerts/GOP"},{"label":"Congress","href":"/alerts/Congress"}]},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true},{"name":"ArticleFooter","props":{"key":"footer-undefined","shareURLs":{},"title":"","dividerData":{"logoAlt":"ABC News","logoSrc":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoSize":"xxxl","logoDefaultImg":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/icomoon/svg/logo.svg","logoHeight":56,"logoWidth":112,"className":"StoryDivider--logo"},"socialShareSize":16,"showComments":true},"config":{}},{"name":"Taboola","props":{"data":{"network":"abcnews-abcnews","mode":"thumbnails-a","container":"taboola-below-article-thumbnails","type":"article","targetType":"mix","placement":"Below Article Thumbnails"},"src":"https://abcnews.go.com/538/republicans-won-house-now-hard-part/story?id=115777126","position":"bottom","pageType":"article"},"config":{},"usesArticleObject":true}],"topComponents":[],"endComponents":[{"name":"NewsletterForm","props":{"articleConfig":{"align":"full"},"placement":"sidebar","isCloseable":false,"heading":"Want the latest politics news? 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It took until Wednesday, Nov. 13 — eight days after Election Day — for ABC News to report that Republicans are projected to hold onto the chamber. And while we don’t yet know what the exact seat margin will be, we do know that it will be another small Republican majority — which could make it difficult to pass much of President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.</p><h2>How many seats will Republicans win?</h2><p>As of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2024-us-house-election-results-live-map\" target=\"_blank\">ABC News is reporting</a> that Republicans have won at least 218 seats in the next House and Democrats have won at least 208.</p><p><inline1></p><p>We still don’t know the winner in nine seats, five of which Democrats currently lead in and are likely to prevail in. That would take them up to 213 seats. Of the other four seats, Republicans look favored in Iowa’s 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s 802-vote lead is likely to hold up even if Democrats request a recount, and Alaska’s at-large district, where Republican Nick Begich has a large enough lead that it will probably withstand the redistributions that happen as part of ranked-choice voting on Nov. 20. However, there is genuine suspense over who will win California’s 13th and 45th districts; Republicans currently have more votes counted there, but Democrats have been closing the gap as more ballots have been counted.</p><p><inline2></p><p>Add it all up, and we expect that Republicans will finish with a House majority in the range of 220 to 222 seats. That’s virtually unchanged from the 221-214 majority that they went into the election with.</p><h2>Republicans’ path to victory</h2><p>That doesn’t mean there wasn’t some churn under the surface, though. So far, Republicans have flipped seven seats from blue to red, and Democrats have flipped six seats from red to blue.</p><p><inline3></p><p>There are three clear explanations for most of these flips. First, five of these seats were virtually predestined to change hands because they were <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/redistricting-play-key-role-fight-control-house-2024/story?id=114640271\" target=\"_blank\">redrawn to be safely Republican or Democratic</a>. In North Carolina, Republicans enacted a new congressional map that was heavily biased toward their party and turned three Democratic-held districts — the 6th, 13th and 14th — deep red. Alabama and Louisiana also adopted new congressional maps after the <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/supreme-court-voting-rights-redistricting-implications/\" target=\"_blank\">Supreme Court affirmed</a> that the Voting Rights Act <a href=\"https://www.publicmapping.org/what-is-redistricting/redistricting-criteria-the-voting-rights-act\" target=\"_blank\">requires states to draw districts</a> where nonwhite voters are the dominant voting bloc whenever <a href=\"https://www.justice.gov/crt/case-document/file/1429826/dl\" target=\"_blank\">reasonably possible</a>. As a consequence, Alabama’s 2nd District and Louisiana’s 6th District went from majority-white, solidly Republican seats to majority-Black, solidly Democratic seats.</p><p>Second, Democrats flipped a handful of seats in New York. The Empire State was also redistricted earlier this year, but its map didn’t dramatically change. Instead, these flips can be chalked up to the fact that New York Republicans won several House seats in 2022 that they had no business holding, based on the districts’ partisanships. That year, a <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rj0Tj8dnrYw\" target=\"_blank\">localized</a> red wave hit New York, carrying former Rep. Lee Zeldin to within 6 percentage points of the governorship and helping Republicans <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/nyregion/ny-house-races-redistricting.html\" target=\"_blank\">flip four House seats</a>. As a result, Republicans this year were defending seats like the 19th District (which would have voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 by 4 points <a href=\"https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020\" target=\"_blank\">under the current lines</a>), 22nd District (Biden by 11 points) and 4th District (Biden by 15 points). Democrats flipped all three seats last week.</p><p>Third, Republicans gained two seats in Pennsylvania and one in Michigan — two presidential swing states where Trump did a little bit better than expected. While we don’t yet know who carried these districts on the presidential level in 2024, Biden carried the current Michigan 7th and Pennsylvania 7th by less than 1 point in 2020, and Trump carried Pennsylvania’s 8th by 3 points. Given the shift toward Trump in those states this year, it seems likely that he carried all three districts this time around, and <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-is-partisan-and-correlated-and-boring/\" target=\"_blank\">House results often mirror the top of the ticket</a>.</p><p>Otherwise, virtually every other seat went the way that our <a href=\"https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house/\" target=\"_blank\">preelection forecast</a> predicted. So far, every seat that we had rated as “Lean,” “Likely” or “Solid” Republican has gone red, and every seat that we had rated as “Likely” or “Solid” Democratic has gone blue.* Toss-up seats have split 2-1 in favor of Democrats, while the only upsets so far have been in our “Lean Democratic” category: Republicans won Colorado’s 8th District, Nebraska’s 2nd District and the two aforementioned Pennsylvania seats despite being down in the polls there.</p><p><inline4></p><h2>The small GOP majority could spell trouble ahead</h2><p>Assuming Republicans do end up with something in the neighborhood of 220-222 seats, their House win may not feel like much of a victory. In January 2023, Republicans walked into the Capitol with a 222-213 majority and proceeded to <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kevin-mccarthys-job-just-got-harder/\" target=\"_blank\">take 15 ballots to elect a speaker</a>. That speaker then <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/effort-remove-house-speaker-succeeded-history/story?id=103688484\" target=\"_blank\">lost his job in Octobe</a><a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/effort-remove-house-speaker-succeeded-history/story?id=103688484\" target=\"_blank\">r</a>, and it <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/house-republicans-speaker-vote-johnson.html\" target=\"_blank\">took 22 days to replace</a> him. On multiple occasions, new Speaker Mike Johnson had to <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/21/mike-johnson-democrats-help-congress-00148129\" target=\"_blank\">rely on Democrats</a> to <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/24/government-shutdown-johnson-democrats/\" target=\"_blank\">pass foundational legislation</a>, and the 118th Congress will likely go down in history as <a href=\"https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2024/08/08/congress-limps-toward-the-end-of-a-disappointing-session-with-just-78-laws-to-show/\" target=\"_blank\">one of the least productive on record</a>.</p><p>Having failed to pick up many (any?) seats in this election, House Republicans could once again have trouble governing in 2025-26. Their saving grace may be the fact that <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/538/member-congress-voted-biden-2023/story?id=106718543\" target=\"_blank\">parties in power tend to be more cohesive than parties out of power</a>: With Republicans also in control of the White House and Senate, the House GOP will <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-house-democrats-may-be-more-united-than-they-seem/\" target=\"_blank\">have a strong incentive</a> to pass legislation that makes the new administration look effective — or else risk the wrath of Trump himself.</p><p>But with such a narrow majority, it will take only a handful of dissenters to tank a bill, and many members of the House Freedom Caucus have <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/trump-freedom-caucus-obamacare-236443\" target=\"_blank\">clashed with Trump before</a> when his wishes have conflicted with their hardline stances. And it’s possible that the GOP’s majority will temporarily shrink even more in the first few months of 2025 since at least two Republican representatives <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-selects-rep-elise-stefanik-ambassador/story?id=115725527\" target=\"_blank\">may resign</a> in order to <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-picks-rep-mike-waltz-former-green-beret/story?id=115753630\" target=\"_blank\">take jobs in the Trump administration</a>.</p><p>Plus, Republicans would be wise to do all their legislating in the next two years, because they probably won’t have the chance after that. The small GOP majority makes it likely that Democrats will take back the House in 2026. Since the end of World War II, the president’s party has <a href=\"https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm/\" target=\"_blank\">lost an average of 25 House seats</a> in midterm elections.**</p><p><inline5></p><p><p><inline6></p>That’s a big part of the reason parties rarely hold a federal government “trifecta” — simultaneous control of the presidency, Senate and House — for longer than two years. Since 1981, every president to enter office with a trifecta lost it in the next midterm.</p><p>The past is no guarantee of the future, but some back-of-the-napkin math suggests Democrats have a clear path back to the majority in 2026. Based on election results as of Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. Eastern, Republicans are winning 12 districts by 3 points or less. They are winning 17 districts by 6 points or less. And they are winning 23 districts by 9 points or less.</p><p><inline7></p><p>According to the <a href=\"https://www.cookpolitical.com/vote-tracker/2024/house\" target=\"_blank\">Cook Political Report</a>, Republicans are currently winning the national popular vote for the House by about 4 points — although, with many votes still uncounted in heavily Democratic California, this will probably eventually narrow to about 3 points. But in 2018 — the other midterm election with Trump as president — Democrats won the House popular vote by 9 points. We may not see such a dramatic swing in 2026, and not every district will swing by the same amount, but it’s easy to see a world where Democrats take back the majority without breaking much of a sweat.</p><p>In a fiercely fought 2024 race for control of the House, Republicans came out on top. They can rightly take a lot of satisfaction from that. But recent history suggests their time in control of the chamber may be like philosopher <a href=\"https://yalebooksblog.co.uk/2013/04/05/thomas-hobbes-solitary-poor-nasty-brutish-and-short/\" target=\"_blank\">Thomas Hobbes’s description</a> of life without government: nasty, brutish and short.</p><p><em>Tia Yang contributed research.</em></p><h2>Footnotes</h2><p>*Ironically, this is not what we wanted to see: Statistically, seats with a 60-75 percent chance of going to one party (the definition of our “Lean” category) should go to the opposing party 25-40 percent of the time, and seats with a 75-98 percent chance of going to one party (the definition of our “Likely” category) should go to the other one 2-25 percent of the time. That didn’t happen, suggesting our forecast could have been better calibrated.</p><p>**Compared with how many seats the party held going into Election Day, not how many seats it won in the previous election. This is why our numbers may differ slightly from <a href=\"https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections\" target=\"_blank\">other</a> <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/articles/vital-statistics-on-congress/\" target=\"_blank\">sources</a>. We also count vacant seats as belonging to the party that previously held them.</p>","publishedDate":"2024-11-13T21:23:00Z","contributors":[{"name":"Nathaniel Rakich","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/nathaniel_rakich","role":"","logo":"","logoAlt":"","units":[{}],"bureaus":[{}],"affiliateLogo":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg","affiliateUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538","affiliate":"via five thirty eight"},{"name":"Amina Brown","url":"https://abcnews.go.com/author/amina_brown","role":"","logo":"","logoAlt":"","units":[{}],"bureaus":[{}],"affiliateLogo":"https://s.abcnews.com/assets/dtci/random/svg/fivethirtyeight_logo.svg","affiliateUrl":"https://abcnews.com/538","affiliate":"via five thirty eight"}],"authorsStr":"Nathaniel Rakich, Amina Brown","modifiedDate":"2024-11-13T21:50:16Z","section":"538","wordCount":1500,"relatedTags":{"heading":"Related 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