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Is there enough land on Earth to fight climate change and feed the world? | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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fight climate change and feed the world? </li> </ol> </div> </div> <div data-drupal-messages-fallback class="hidden"></div> <div id="block-mit-page-title"> <div class="block-inner"> <h1><span itemprop="name headline">Is there enough land on Earth to fight climate change and feed the world?</span> </span> </h1> </div> </div> <div id="block-mit-content"> <div class="block-inner"> <article> <div> <div itemprop="description" class="news-article--dek"> <span>Study shows how smart policies could address competing land-use needs.</span> </div> <div class="news-article--indicators"> </div> <div itemprop="author" class="news-article--authored-by"> <span class="news-article--author">Mark Dwortzan</span> <span class="news-article--authored-by--separator">|</span> <span class="news-article--source">Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy</span> </div> <div itemprop="datePublished" class="news-article--publication-date"> <div class="visually-hidden"> <span class="label">Publication Date</span><span class="visually-hidden">:</span> </div> <time datetime="2024-11-26T21:45:00Z">November 26, 2024</time> </div> <div data-nosnippet="true" class="news-article--press-inquiries"> <div class="news-article--press-inquiries--header"><a href="#press-inquiries" class="news-article--press-inquiries--title--link"><span class="arrow down"></span><svg class="icon--info" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20"> <path id="iconfinder_icon-information_2867914" d="M12,22A10,10,0,1,1,22,12,10,10,0,0,1,12,22Zm0-2a8,8,0,1,0-8-8A8,8,0,0,0,12,20Zm0-9a1,1,0,0,1,1,1v4a1,1,0,0,1-2,0V12A1,1,0,0,1,12,11Zm0-4a1,1,0,1,1-1,1A1,1,0,0,1,12,7Z" transform="translate(-2 -2)" fill="currentColor"/> </svg> <span class="link-text">Press Inquiries</span></a></div> <div id="press-inquiries" class="news-article--press-inquiries--descr"> <div class="news-article--press-inquiries--press-contacts"> <h3 > <span class="label">Press Contact</span><span class="visually-hidden">:</span> </h3> <div class="press-contact"> <div class="news-article--press-inquiries--press-contact--name"> Mark Dwortzan </div> <div class="news-article--press-inquiries--press-contact--email"> <span class="label"> Email: </span> <a href="mailto:dwortzan@mit.edu">dwortzan@mit.edu</a> </div> <div class="news-article--press-inquiries--press-contact--org"> Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change </div> </div> </div> <div class="news-article--press-inquiries--descr--close--container"> <a href="#" class="news-article--press-inquiries--descr--close--button-link"><span class="news-article--press-inquiries--descr--close--button-icon"><svg class="icon--button--close" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="22" height="22" viewBox="0 0 22 22"> <g transform="translate(-32 -33)"> <path id="Path_2543" data-name="Path 2543" d="M43,33A11,11,0,1,0,54,44,11,11,0,0,0,43,33Zm5.318,14.708a.386.386,0,0,1,.113.275.378.378,0,0,1-.113.275l-1.061,1.066a.382.382,0,0,1-.275.113.4.4,0,0,1-.275-.113L43,45.611l-3.7,3.717a.375.375,0,0,1-.275.113.4.4,0,0,1-.275-.113l-1.061-1.066a.386.386,0,0,1-.113-.275.378.378,0,0,1,.113-.275L41.4,43.98,37.677,40.3a.394.394,0,0,1,0-.555l1.061-1.066a.391.391,0,0,1,.55,0L43,42.345l3.717-3.668a.391.391,0,0,1,.55,0l1.061,1.066a.394.394,0,0,1,0,.555L44.606,43.98Z" fill="currentColor"/> </g> </svg> </span> Close</a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="news-article--full-width-wrapper"> <div class="news-article--full-width-wrapper-inner"> <div class="news-article--images-gallery--wrapper"> <div class="news-article--images-gallery"> <div class="news-article--image-item"> <div class="news-article--media--image--file"> <img loading="lazy" src="/themes/mit/src/img/placeholder/placeholder--news-article--image-gallery.jpg" width="900" height="600" alt="Two silver silos against a clear blue sky, with young corn plants in the foreground" class="ondemand" data-src="/sites/default/files/styles/news_article__image_gallery/public/images/202411/Biomass%20Resources_WEB.png?itok=jzHY5r0q" /> </div> <div class="news-article--media--image--descr--wrapper"> <div class="news-article--media--image--descr"> <div class="news-article--media--image--caption"> <div class="visually-hidden"> <span class="label">Caption</span><span class="visually-hidden">:</span> </div> A study led by MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy researchers shows that there is enough land to support efforts to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius while addressing competing needs for long-term food security and ecosystem health. </div> <div class="news-article--media--image--credits"> <div class="visually-hidden"> <span class="label">Credits</span><span class="visually-hidden">:</span> </div> Photo courtesy of the U.S. Department of Energy. </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="news-article--images-gallery--nav"> <p class="news-article--images-gallery--nav--inner"> <button class="news-article--images-gallery--nav--button news-article--images-gallery--nav--button--previous"><svg class="arrow--point-west--slider" data-name="Group 2041" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="0" viewBox="0 0 16.621 30.183"> <defs> <clipPath id="clip-path"> <path id="Path_494" data-name="Path 494" d="M0-126.293H16.621V-96.11H0Z" transform="translate(0 126.293)" /> </clipPath> </defs> <g id="Group_112" data-name="Group 112" clip-path="url(#clip-path)"> <g id="Group_111" data-name="Group 111" transform="translate(0 0)"> <path id="Path_493" data-name="Path 493" d="M-48.055-96.11a1.522,1.522,0,0,1-1.081-.448L-62.7-110.12a1.529,1.529,0,0,1,0-2.163l13.562-13.562a1.528,1.528,0,0,1,2.162,0,1.529,1.529,0,0,1,0,2.163L-59.454-111.2l12.48,12.48a1.529,1.529,0,0,1,0,2.163,1.524,1.524,0,0,1-1.081.448" transform="translate(63.146 126.293)" /> </g> </g> </svg> <span class="visually-hidden">Previous image</span></button> <button class="news-article--images-gallery--nav--button news-article--images-gallery--nav--button--next"><span class="visually-hidden">Next image</span><svg class="arrow--point-east--slider" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="0" viewBox="0 0 16.621 30.183"> <defs> <clipPath id="clip-path"> <path id="Path_496" data-name="Path 496" d="M0-126.293H16.621V-96.11H0Z" transform="translate(0 126.293)"/> </clipPath> </defs> <g id="Group_2042" data-name="Group 2042" transform="translate(16.621 30.183) rotate(180)"> <g id="Group_115" data-name="Group 115" clip-path="url(#clip-path)"> <g id="Group_114" data-name="Group 114" transform="translate(0 0)"> <path id="Path_495" data-name="Path 495" d="M-48.055-96.11a1.522,1.522,0,0,1-1.081-.448L-62.7-110.12a1.529,1.529,0,0,1,0-2.163l13.562-13.562a1.528,1.528,0,0,1,2.162,0,1.529,1.529,0,0,1,0,2.163L-59.454-111.2l12.48,12.48a1.529,1.529,0,0,1,0,2.163,1.524,1.524,0,0,1-1.081.448" transform="translate(63.146 126.293)" /> </g> </g> </g> </svg></button> </p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="news-article--content"> <div class="news-article--content--body" itemprop="articleBody"> <div class="news-article--content--body--inner"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--content-block-text paragraph--view-mode--default"> <p>Capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius is a tall order. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/">Achieving that goal</a> will not only require a massive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, but also a substantial reallocation of land to support that effort and sustain the biosphere, including humans. More land will be needed to accommodate a growing demand for bioenergy and nature-based carbon sequestration while ensuring sufficient acreage for food production and ecological sustainability.</p><p>The expanding role of land in a 1.5 C world will be twofold — to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and to produce clean energy. Land-based carbon dioxide removal strategies include bioenergy with carbon capture and storage; <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage/direct-air-capture">direct air capture</a>; and afforestation/reforestation and other <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/05/19/what-you-need-to-know-about-nature-based-solutions-to-climate-change">nature-based solutions</a>. Land-based clean energy production includes wind and solar farms and <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/statements/joint-statement-sustainable-bioenergy-climate-and-development-goals">sustainable bioenergy</a> cropland. Any decision to allocate more land for climate mitigation must also address competing needs for long-term food security and ecosystem health.</p><p>Land-based climate mitigation choices vary in terms of costs — amount of land required, implications for food security, impact on biodiversity and other ecosystem services — and benefits — potential for sequestering greenhouse gases and producing clean energy.</p><p>Now a <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1393327/full">study</a> in the journal <em>Frontiers in Environmental Science</em> provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of competing land-use and technology options to limit global warming to 1.5 C. Led by researchers at the <a href="https://cs3.mit.edu/">MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy</a> (CS3), the study applies the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework to evaluate costs and benefits of different land-based climate mitigation options in <a href="https://globalchange.mit.edu/sites/default/files/MITJPSPGC_Rpt364.pdf">Sky2050</a>, a 1.5 C climate-stabilization scenario developed by Shell.</p><p>Under this scenario, demand for bioenergy and natural carbon sinks increase along with the need for sustainable farming and food production.&nbsp;To determine if there’s enough land to meet all these growing demands, the research team uses current estimates of the Earth’s total habitable land area — about 11 billion hectares or 11 gigahectares (Gha), where a hectare is an area of 10,000 square meters or 2.471 acres — and land area used for food production and bioenergy (5 Gha), and assesses how these may change in the future.</p><p>The team finds that with transformative changes in policy, land management practices, and consumption patterns, global land is sufficient to provide a sustainable supply of food and ecosystem services&nbsp;throughout this century while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions in alignment with the 1.5 C goal. These transformative changes include policies to protect natural ecosystems; stop deforestation and accelerate reforestation and afforestation; promote advances in sustainable agriculture technology and practice; reduce agricultural and food waste; and incentivize consumers to purchase sustainably produced goods.</p><p>If such changes are implemented, 2.5–3.5 gha of land would be used for NBS practices to sequester 3–6 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO<sub>2</sub>&nbsp;per year, and 0.4–0.6&nbsp;gha of land would be allocated for energy production — 0.2–0.3&nbsp;gha for bioenergy and 0.2–0.35&nbsp;gha for wind and solar power generation.</p><p>“Our scenario shows that there is enough land to support a 1.5 degree C future as long as effective policies at national and global levels are in place,” says CS3 Principal Research Scientist <a href="https://cs3.mit.edu/about-us/personnel/gurgel-angelo">Angelo Gurgel</a>, the study’s lead author. “These policies must not only promote efficient use of land 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class="news-article--paper-link--url"><a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1393327/full" target="_blank">Paper: &quot;Land-use competition in 1.5°C climate stabilization: is there enough land for all potential needs?&quot;</a></span> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="news-article--content--related-links"> <h2>Related Links</h2> <div class="views-element-container"><div class="js-view-dom-id-e90459b4eff002efb5827d5399a8f05cab6d5f482f83196c06473eaf2cc7d081"> <div><div class="news-article--content--related-links--items"><ul><li><a href="https://cs3.mit.edu/about-us/personnel/gurgel-angelo" target="_blank">Angelo Gurgel</a></li><li><a href="https://cs3.mit.edu/" target="_blank">Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy</a></li><li><a href="https://energy.mit.edu/" target="_blank">MIT Energy Initiative</a></li></ul></div></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="news-article--topics"> <h2>Related 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