The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey

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effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey"></meta><meta name="citation_author" content="Aydoğan Avcıoğlu"></meta><meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Istanbul Technical University"></meta><meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières"></meta><meta name="citation_author" content="Abdullah Akbaş"></meta><meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Uludag University"></meta><meta name="citation_author" content="Tolga Görüm"></meta><meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences"></meta><meta name="citation_author_orcid" content="0000-0001-9407-7946"></meta><meta name="citation_author" content="Ömer Yetemen"></meta><meta name="citation_author_institution" content="Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences"></meta><meta name="citation_publication_date" content="2024"></meta><meta name="citation_doi" 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searchForm.attr("method", "post"); searchForm.attr("action", "/en/concepts/copypaste/"); field.attr("name", "text"); } }); }); </script> </div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <main id="page-content"> <div class="page-section page-section-publications page-section-publications-view "> <section class="page-section-header page-section-header-publications page-section-header-publications-view no-backdrop-image" data-stickyheader="" style=""> <div class="container"> <div class="row"> <div class="introduction no-metrics"> <div class="rendering"><h1><span>The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey</span></h1></div> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_associatespersonsclassifiedportal rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_associatespersonsclassifiedportal rendering_contributiontojournal_associatespersonsclassifiedportal"><p class="relations persons">Aydoğan Avcıoğlu<sup>*</sup>, Abdullah Akbaş, <a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/tolga-g%C3%B6r%C3%BCm" class="link person"><span>Tolga Görüm</span></a>, <a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/%C3%B6mer-yetemen" class="link person"><span>Ömer Yetemen</span></a><div class="info-block"><div class="info"><sup>*</sup><span>Corresponding author for this work</span></div></div></div> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_associatesorganisationsportal rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_associatesorganisationsportal rendering_contributiontojournal_associatesorganisationsportal"><ul class="relations organisations"><li class="institute"><a rel="Organisation" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/organisations/eurasia-institute-of-earth-sciences" class="link"><span>Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences</span></a></li></ul></div> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_associatesexternalorganisationsportal rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_associatesexternalorganisationsportal rendering_contributiontojournal_associatesexternalorganisationsportal"><ul class="relations organisations"><li><a rel="UEOExternalOrganisation" href="#" class="link"><span>Istanbul Technical University</span></a></li><li><a rel="UEOExternalOrganisation" href="#" class="link"><span>Bureau de recherches géologiques et minières</span></a></li><li><a rel="UEOExternalOrganisation" href="#" class="link"><span>Uludag University</span></a></li></ul></div> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_publicationcontenttyperendererportalng rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_publicationcontenttyperendererportalng rendering_contributiontojournal_publicationcontenttyperendererportalng"><p class="type"><span class="type_family">Research output<span class="type_family_sep">: </span></span><span class="type_classification_parent">Contribution to journal<span class="type_parent_sep"> › </span></span><span class="type_classification">Article</span><span class="type_classification"><span class="type_parent_sep"> › </span>peer-review</span></p></div> </div> <div class="publication-metrics" aria-label="Publication metrics section"> <div class="metrics-container"> <div class="metrics-wrap metrics-bottom "> <div class="metric metric-plum-x"> <a href="https://plu.mx/plum/a/?doi=10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7" class="plumx-plum-print-popup" data-on-empty="plumXError" data-on-fail="plumXError" data-on-success="plumXSuccess" data-popup="left" data-hide-when-empty="true" data-site="plum" data-badge="false"></a> </div> <div class="metric metric-altmetric"> <div data-badge-popover="top" data-badge-type="donut" data-doi="10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7" data-hide-no-mentions="true" data-link-target='_blank' class="altmetric-embed"></div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="subMenu"> <div class="content-profile-navigation"> <div class="container"> <nav role="navigation"> <ul class="has-overflow-navigation" role="menubar"> <li class="selected" role="none"> <a class="portal_link" role="menuitem" href="/en/publications/the-compound-effect-of-topography-weather-and-fuel-type-on-the-sp"><span> <i class="icon icon-publication" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="label">Overview</span> </span></a> </li> <li class="" role="none"> <a class="portal_link" role="menuitem" href="/en/publications/the-compound-effect-of-topography-weather-and-fuel-type-on-the-sp/fingerprints/"><span> <i class="icon icon-fingerprint" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="label">Fingerprint</span> </span></a> </li> </ul> </nav> </div> </div> </div> </section> <div id="main-content" class="page-section-content page-section-content-publications page-section-content-publications-view "> <section class="page-section content-relation-section"> <div class="container"> <div class="clearfix"> <div class="content-content publication-content"> <h2 class="subheader">Abstract</h2> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_abstractportal rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_abstractportal rendering_contributiontojournal_abstractportal"><div class="textblock"><p>The large wildfire sequence took place in July and August 2023 in Çanakkale, recorded as the largest wildfire incident in NW, Türkiye. The total affected area in two successive wildfires is 79.1 km<sup>2</sup>. This study presents an observation-based instance and statistical model findings of how topography as a major determinant controls wildfire propagation direction and burn severity with the contribution of weather conditions (particularly wind and temperature) and specific land use and land cover (LULC) types. The findings reveal that the Çanakkale Strait and Biga Mountains as regional geomorphic units that extend from northeast to southwest portray the main direction of wildfire incidents guided by prevailing wind patterns and specific LULC types. The marginal section of the Biga Mountains, where the topographic relief and slope largely increase, constrain wildfire propagation, while vegetation density is higher in the steeper areas. Notably, the specific LULC which is a harvested wheat field plays an important role in determining the major direction of wildfire, primarily influenced by the prevailing northeast-to-southwest wind direction observed in the July case. Furthermore, the ordinary least square model results showed that rougher topography tends to exhibit higher burn severity which is the case for the August wildfire. The local topographic conditions (i.e., valley shape morphology) offer an appropriate observational insight for general mathematical models with the increased burn severity, and the main direction of fire and impeding areas in the August case. This study also sheds light on the significance of wind direction that can surpass the slope orientation for burn severity which is expected higher potential in equator-faced compared to the polar-faced.</p></div></div> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_detailsportal rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_detailsportal rendering_contributiontojournal_detailsportal"><div class="article"><table class="properties"><tbody><tr class="language"><th scope="row">Original language</th><td>English</td></tr><tr><th scope="row">Journal</th><td><a rel="Journal" href="#" class="link"><span>Natural Hazards</span></a></td></tr><tr class="digital_object_identifiers"><th scope="row">DOIs</th><td><ul class="relations digital_object_identifiers"><li><a onclick="window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7" class="link"><span>https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7</span></a> </li></ul></td></tr><tr class="status"><th scope="row">Publication status</th><td><span class="prefix">Accepted/In press - </span><span class="date">2024</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_publicationbibliographicalnoteportalrenderer rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_publicationbibliographicalnoteportalrenderer rendering_contributiontojournal_publicationbibliographicalnoteportalrenderer"><h3 class="subheader">Bibliographical note</h3>Publisher Copyright:<br />© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.</div> <div class="rendering rendering_keywordable rendering_expertkeywordgrouspbytypeportal rendering_keywordable_expertkeywordgrouspbytypeportal"><div class="keyword-group"><h2 class="subheader">Keywords</h2><ul class="relations keywords"><li class="userdefined-keyword"><span>LULC</span></li><li class="userdefined-keyword"><span>Topographic impacts</span></li><li class="userdefined-keyword"><span>Türkiye</span></li><li class="userdefined-keyword"><span>Wildfire spread and severity</span></li></ul></div></div> </div> <div class="content-sidebar publication-sidebar"> <div class="sdg-content-wrap publication"> <h2 class="subheader">UN SDGs</h2> <p class="sdg-text">This output contributes to the following UN <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/" target="_blank">Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)</a></p> <ul class="sdgs-content"> <li> <img alt="SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals" title="SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals" class="partnerships" src="/assets/sdg_icons/partnerships-f0be6343da3b9970583be7f768f85d93.svg"/> </li> </ul> </div> <h2 class="subheader">Access to Document</h2> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_publicationaccessrenderer rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_publicationaccessrenderer rendering_contributiontojournal_publicationaccessrenderer"><ul class="dois"><li><div class="doi"><a onclick="window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7" class="link"><span>10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7</span></a></div></li></ul></div> <h2 class="subheader">Other files and links</h2> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_publicationotherfilesandlinksrenderer rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_publicationotherfilesandlinksrenderer rendering_contributiontojournal_publicationotherfilesandlinksrenderer"><ul class="links"><li><div class="link"><a onclick="window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;" href="http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85204805325&partnerID=8YFLogxK" class="link"><span>Link to publication in Scopus</span></a></div></li></ul></div> </div> </div> </div> </section> <section class="page-section content-relation-section publication-fingerprint"> <div class="container"> <div class="header"> <h2 class="section-title"> <i class="icon icon-fingerprint" aria-hidden="true"></i> <span class="title">Fingerprint</span> </h2> <span class="sub-title"> Dive into the research topics of 'The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey'. Together they form a unique fingerprint. </span> </div> <ul class="publication-top-concepts" role="menubar"> <li class="concept-badge-large-container dropdown-overflow" role="none"> <button tabindex="0" class="concept-badge-large dropdown-toggle" type="button" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" aria-expanded="false" aria-controls="3a0e8cfb-e123-4e23-acf5-73610447feb2" data-concept-uuid="3a0e8cfb-e123-4e23-acf5-73610447feb2" data-rank-size="32" data-rank-thickness="8" data-rank-value="1.0" data-summary="true" data-summary-url="/en/concepts/summary/"> <span class="concept-wrapper" title="100%"> <span class="rank"></span> <span class="concept">Turkey</span> <span class="thesauri">Keyphrases</span> <span class="value sr-only">100%</span> </span> </button> <div class="dropdown-container"></div> </li> <li class="concept-badge-large-container dropdown-overflow" role="none"> <button tabindex="0" class="concept-badge-large dropdown-toggle" type="button" role="menuitem" aria-haspopup="true" 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href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/publications/the-compound-effect-of-topography-weather-and-fuel-type-on-the-sp" class="link"><span>The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey</span></a>. <a rel="Journal" href="#" class="link"><span><em>Natural Hazards</em></span></a>. <a onclick="window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7" class="link"><span>https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7</span></a></div> </div> <div id="cite-author" class="tab " role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="tab-1" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_author rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_author rendering_contributiontojournal_author">Avcıoğlu, Aydoğan ; Akbaş, Abdullah <a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/tolga-g%C3%B6r%C3%BCm" class="link"><span> ; Görüm, Tolga</span></a> et al. / <a rel="ContributionToJournal" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/publications/the-compound-effect-of-topography-weather-and-fuel-type-on-the-sp" class="link"><span><strong>The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey</strong></span></a>. In: <a rel="Journal" href="#" class="link"><span>Natural Hazards</span></a>. 2024.</div> </div> <div id="cite-BIBTEX" class="tab " role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="tab-2" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontojournal_bibtex"><div>@article{a10a412ac3fd4f5aa328d39f4c58ef2b,</div><div> title = "The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey",</div><div> abstract = "The large wildfire sequence took place in July and August 2023 in {\c C}anakkale, recorded as the largest wildfire incident in NW, T{\"u}rkiye. The total affected area in two successive wildfires is 79.1 km2. This study presents an observation-based instance and statistical model findings of how topography as a major determinant controls wildfire propagation direction and burn severity with the contribution of weather conditions (particularly wind and temperature) and specific land use and land cover (LULC) types. The findings reveal that the {\c C}anakkale Strait and Biga Mountains as regional geomorphic units that extend from northeast to southwest portray the main direction of wildfire incidents guided by prevailing wind patterns and specific LULC types. The marginal section of the Biga Mountains, where the topographic relief and slope largely increase, constrain wildfire propagation, while vegetation density is higher in the steeper areas. Notably, the specific LULC which is a harvested wheat field plays an important role in determining the major direction of wildfire, primarily influenced by the prevailing northeast-to-southwest wind direction observed in the July case. Furthermore, the ordinary least square model results showed that rougher topography tends to exhibit higher burn severity which is the case for the August wildfire. The local topographic conditions (i.e., valley shape morphology) offer an appropriate observational insight for general mathematical models with the increased burn severity, and the main direction of fire and impeding areas in the August case. This study also sheds light on the significance of wind direction that can surpass the slope orientation for burn severity which is expected higher potential in equator-faced compared to the polar-faced.",</div><div> keywords = "LULC, Topographic impacts, T{\"u}rkiye, Wildfire spread and severity",</div><div> author = "Aydoğan Avcıoğlu and Abdullah Akba{\c s} and Tolga G{\"o}r{\"u}m and {\"O}mer Yetemen",</div><div> note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.",</div><div> year = "2024",</div><div> doi = "10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7",</div><div> language = "English",</div><div> journal = "Natural Hazards",</div><div> issn = "0921-030X",</div><div> publisher = "Springer Netherlands",</div><p>}</p></div> </div> <div id="cite-harvard" class="tab " role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="tab-3" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_harvard rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_harvard rendering_contributiontojournal_harvard">Avcıoğlu, A, Akbaş, A<a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/tolga-g%C3%B6r%C3%BCm" class="link"><span>, Görüm, T</span></a><a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/%C3%B6mer-yetemen" class="link"><span> & Yetemen, Ö</span></a> 2024, '<a rel="ContributionToJournal" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/publications/the-compound-effect-of-topography-weather-and-fuel-type-on-the-sp" class="link harvard_title"><span>The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey</span></a>', <a rel="Journal" href="#" class="link"><span><em>Natural Hazards</em></span></a>. <a onclick="window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;" href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7" class="link"><span>https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7</span></a></div> </div> <div id="cite-standard" class="tab " role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="tab-4" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_standard rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_standard rendering_contributiontojournal_standard"><a rel="ContributionToJournal" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/publications/the-compound-effect-of-topography-weather-and-fuel-type-on-the-sp" class="link"><span><strong>The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey.</strong></span></a> / Avcıoğlu, Aydoğan; Akbaş, Abdullah<a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/tolga-g%C3%B6r%C3%BCm" class="link"><span>; Görüm, Tolga</span></a> et al. <br />In: <a rel="Journal" href="#" class="link"><span>Natural Hazards</span></a>, 2024.<p class="type"><span class="type_family">Research output<span class="type_family_sep">: </span></span><span class="type_classification_parent">Contribution to journal<span class="type_parent_sep"> › </span></span><span class="type_classification">Article</span><span class="type_classification"><span class="type_parent_sep"> › </span>peer-review</span></p></div> </div> <div id="cite-RIS" class="tab " role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="tab-5" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_ris rendering_contributiontojournal_ris"><p>TY - JOUR</p><p>T1 - The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey</p><p>AU - Avcıoğlu, Aydoğan</p><p>AU - Akbaş, Abdullah</p><p>AU - Görüm, Tolga</p><p>AU - Yetemen, Ömer</p><p>N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2024.</p><p>PY - 2024</p><p>Y1 - 2024</p><p>N2 - The large wildfire sequence took place in July and August 2023 in Çanakkale, recorded as the largest wildfire incident in NW, Türkiye. The total affected area in two successive wildfires is 79.1 km2. This study presents an observation-based instance and statistical model findings of how topography as a major determinant controls wildfire propagation direction and burn severity with the contribution of weather conditions (particularly wind and temperature) and specific land use and land cover (LULC) types. The findings reveal that the Çanakkale Strait and Biga Mountains as regional geomorphic units that extend from northeast to southwest portray the main direction of wildfire incidents guided by prevailing wind patterns and specific LULC types. The marginal section of the Biga Mountains, where the topographic relief and slope largely increase, constrain wildfire propagation, while vegetation density is higher in the steeper areas. Notably, the specific LULC which is a harvested wheat field plays an important role in determining the major direction of wildfire, primarily influenced by the prevailing northeast-to-southwest wind direction observed in the July case. Furthermore, the ordinary least square model results showed that rougher topography tends to exhibit higher burn severity which is the case for the August wildfire. The local topographic conditions (i.e., valley shape morphology) offer an appropriate observational insight for general mathematical models with the increased burn severity, and the main direction of fire and impeding areas in the August case. This study also sheds light on the significance of wind direction that can surpass the slope orientation for burn severity which is expected higher potential in equator-faced compared to the polar-faced.</p><p>AB - The large wildfire sequence took place in July and August 2023 in Çanakkale, recorded as the largest wildfire incident in NW, Türkiye. The total affected area in two successive wildfires is 79.1 km2. This study presents an observation-based instance and statistical model findings of how topography as a major determinant controls wildfire propagation direction and burn severity with the contribution of weather conditions (particularly wind and temperature) and specific land use and land cover (LULC) types. The findings reveal that the Çanakkale Strait and Biga Mountains as regional geomorphic units that extend from northeast to southwest portray the main direction of wildfire incidents guided by prevailing wind patterns and specific LULC types. The marginal section of the Biga Mountains, where the topographic relief and slope largely increase, constrain wildfire propagation, while vegetation density is higher in the steeper areas. Notably, the specific LULC which is a harvested wheat field plays an important role in determining the major direction of wildfire, primarily influenced by the prevailing northeast-to-southwest wind direction observed in the July case. Furthermore, the ordinary least square model results showed that rougher topography tends to exhibit higher burn severity which is the case for the August wildfire. The local topographic conditions (i.e., valley shape morphology) offer an appropriate observational insight for general mathematical models with the increased burn severity, and the main direction of fire and impeding areas in the August case. This study also sheds light on the significance of wind direction that can surpass the slope orientation for burn severity which is expected higher potential in equator-faced compared to the polar-faced.</p><p>KW - LULC</p><p>KW - Topographic impacts</p><p>KW - Türkiye</p><p>KW - Wildfire spread and severity</p><p>UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85204805325&partnerID=8YFLogxK</p><p>U2 - 10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7</p><p>DO - 10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7</p><p>M3 - Article</p><p>AN - SCOPUS:85204805325</p><p>SN - 0921-030X</p><p>JO - Natural Hazards</p><p>JF - Natural Hazards</p><p>ER - </p></div> </div> <div id="cite-vancouver" class="tab " role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="tab-6" tabindex="-1" aria-hidden="true"> <div class="rendering rendering_researchoutput rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontojournal rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontojournal_vancouver">Avcıoğlu A, Akbaş A<a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/tolga-g%C3%B6r%C3%BCm" class="link"><span>, Görüm T</span></a><a rel="Person" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/persons/%C3%B6mer-yetemen" class="link"><span>, Yetemen Ö</span></a>. <span class="title"><a rel="ContributionToJournal" href="https://research.itu.edu.tr/en/publications/the-compound-effect-of-topography-weather-and-fuel-type-on-the-sp" class="link"><span>The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey</span></a></span>. <a rel="Journal" href="#" class="link"><span>Natural Hazards</span></a>. 2024. doi: 10.1007/s11069-024-06885-7</div> </div> <script> $(function() { $(".tab-container .rendering a:not([href^='http://dx.doi.org'])").contents().unwrap(); 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The compound effect of topography, weather, and fuel type on the spread and severity of the largest wildfire in NW of Turkey - Istanbul Technical University