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6.05142C6.88342 6.74004 7.44166 7.29828 8.13028 7.29828Z" fill="#5A5A53"></path></svg></figcaption></figure></a><ul class="Ia7LD"><li class="Vg_eH"><a href="./photo/AS20240930004608.html"><img alt="写真・図版" src="//www.asahicom.jp/imgopt/img/329306fa85/hw120/AS20240930004608.jpg"/></a></li><li class="BhcJn"><a href="./photo/AS20240930004610.html"><img alt="写真・図版" src="//www.asahicom.jp/imgopt/img/9958be8902/hw120/AS20240930004610.jpg"/></a></li><li class="Vg_eH"><a href="./photo/AS20240930004607.html"><img alt="写真・図版" src="//www.asahicom.jp/imgopt/img/b993cb9873/hw120/AS20240930004607.jpg"/></a></li><li class="Vg_eH"><a href="./photo/AS20240930004609.html"><img alt="写真・図版" src="//www.asahicom.jp/imgopt/img/4782a8508c/hw120/AS20240930004609.jpg"/></a></li></ul></div><div class="notPrint gXncj"><div> <div class="AdMod">   <div id='kijinaka_rect' style='height:250px; width:300px;'> <script> console.log( 'change esi2: kijinaka_rect' ); googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('kijinaka_rect'); }); </script> </div> <span>[PR]</span>  </div>  </div></div><p>　日米で政治の指導者が相次いで自ら身を引いた。再選を目指していた<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/ジョー・バイデン.html" title="バイデン氏のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">バイデン氏</a>は大統領選から撤退し、<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/カマラ・ハリス.html" title="ハリス副大統領のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">ハリス副大統領</a>が民主党候補に。日本では<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/岸田文雄.html" title="岸田文雄のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">岸田文雄</a>首相が退陣を表明、<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/石破茂.html" title="石破茂のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">石破茂</a>氏が<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/自民党.html" title="自民党のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">自民党</a>新総裁に決まった。権力者の引き際は難しい。政治の権力移行のあり方を長年観察してきた政治学者・東京大教授の牧原出さん（56）に、政治の世界の「引き際」はどうあるべきか、聞いた。</p><div class="AH27z"><ul><li><a href="https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASS9Z42FRS9ZUCVL03JM.html?iref=pc_extlink">岸田首相は今が引き際だったのか　コンサルの視点で語るトップの進退</a></li></ul></div><p>　――岸田首相の退陣表明（8月14日）は突然の出来事でした</p><p>　自民党の裏金問題への世論の反発は根強く、<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/内閣支持率.html" title="内閣支持率のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">内閣支持率</a>だけでなく<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/政党支持率.html" title="政党支持率のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">政党支持率</a>も下がり、粘った岸田首相も最後は退陣表明に追い込まれました。キーワードは「刷新感」ですから、少し引いてみれば、党の体質を刷新することなく「刷新した感じ」を国民に与えること、つまり<a href="http://www.asahi.com/special/seijishikin/" title="政治資金のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">政治資金</a>に甘い党のあり方の本質を否定せずにトップの顔をすげ替えることが目的でした。自民党の「変革」を望む民意との間に大きなズレがありました。</p><p>　――旧安倍派の裏金問題が明らかになり、岸田首相はいち早く自派閥の解散を表明し、他の派閥の多くも追従しました。これは自民党の体質を根本的に変えようとする一手ではなかったのでしょうか？</p><p>　自民党がつぶれかねない、支持を少しでもつなぎとめなければという危機感から一気に決断したのは間違いない。ただ、裏金問題を抱えた議員を自民党が率先して調査し、厳しく処分したわけではないし、岸田首相が責任をとり辞任したり<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/政権交代.html" title="政権交代のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">政権交代</a>が起きたりしたわけでもない。むしろ裏金問題を隠蔽（いんぺい）するための派閥解散だったという見方もあります。</p><p>　そもそも、岸田政権の支持基盤は<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/安倍晋三.html" title="安倍晋三のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">安倍晋三</a>政権や<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/菅義偉（すが・よしひで）.html" title="菅義偉のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">菅義偉</a>政権当時とそれほど変わっていません。2021年の岸田政権発足時に幹事長を実力者の<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/二階俊博.html" title="二階俊博のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">二階俊博</a>氏から<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/甘利明.html" title="甘利明のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">甘利明</a>氏に交代したときのほうが刷新感がありました。岸田氏は結局、今回の総裁選で旧派閥リーダーとしての影響力を行使したわけですから、派閥の存在が完全に解消されたわけではない。</p><p>　――なぜ今の自民党は、本当の意味での刷新が難しいのでしょうか</p><p>　長期政権を率いた<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/安倍晋三.html" title="安倍元首相のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">安倍元首相</a>は20年に退陣しましたが、存命なら3度目の首相就任を目指していたことでしょう。そのため、安倍氏の政治を刷新する力を持つ有力な後継候補の芽が育っていませんでした。例えば、有力な後継候補が務めることが多い財務相を、<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/安倍政権.html" title="安倍政権のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">安倍政権</a>やその「居抜き」で主要閣僚を留任させた菅政権で長く務めたのは元首相の<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/麻生太郎.html" title="麻生太郎のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">麻生太郎</a>氏でした。<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/小泉純一郎.html" title="小泉純一郎のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">小泉純一郎</a>氏が<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/谷垣禎一.html" title="谷垣禎一のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">谷垣禎一</a>氏、<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/中曽根康弘.html" title="中曽根康弘のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">中曽根康弘</a>氏が<a href="//www.asahi.com/topics/word/竹下登.html" title="竹下登のトピックスを開く" class="eWgMZ">竹下登</a>氏を蔵相にすえたようにして後継候補を育てなかったわけです。</p><p>　――安倍氏や菅氏の首相退陣と岸田氏の引き際はどう違うのでしょうか</p><p class="Lujdo">　ボロボロになり政治生命を完…</p></div><div></div><div class="NbZMW"><div class="PxAm1">この記事は<img src="//www.asahicom.jp/images/icon_key_gold.png" alt width="15" height="18"/><a href="//www.asahi.com/news/gold.html?iref=com_1kiji_g_0">有料記事</a>です。<span class="Zgt88">残り<b>2925</b>文字</span><span class="hideFromApp">有料会員になると続きをお読みいただけます。</span></div><div class="btTMl"><span x-component-name="LoggingAnchor" x-component-data="{"eventFn":"fn9","eventArguments":"sc_clk_btn","href":"//digital.asahi.com/subscribe/standard_course/?iref=articlePW_imasugu&returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Fdigital.asahi.com%2Farticles%2FASS9Z4FCRS9ZUCVL03WM.html","className":"hideFromApp wWZ6B"}"><a 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