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class="o-input__droplist1"><label for="c-sort1">Sort By:</label><select name="sort" id="c-sort1" form="facetForm"><option selected="" value="rel">Relevance</option><option value="a-title">A-Z By Title</option><option value="z-title">Z-A By Title</option><option value="a-author">A-Z By Author</option><option value="z-author">Z-A By Author</option><option value="asc">Date Ascending</option><option value="desc">Date Descending</option></select></div></div><input type="hidden" name="start" form="facetForm" value="0"/></div><section class="c-scholworks"><div class="c-scholworks__main-column"><ul class="c-scholworks__tag-list"><li class="c-scholworks__tag-thesis">Thesis</li><li class="c-scholworks__tag-peer">Peer Reviewed</li></ul><div><h3 class="c-scholworks__heading"><a href="/uc/item/3pk8h87b"><div class="c-clientmarkup">Linkage Between Stratospheric Variability and North American Surface Air Temperature</div></a></h3></div><div class="c-authorlist"><ul class="c-authorlist__list"><li class="c-authorlist__begin"><a href="/search/?q=author%3ADing%2C%20Xiuyuan">Ding, Xiuyuan</a> </li><li class="c-authorlist__begin"><span class="c-authorlist__heading">Advisor(s):</span> <a href="/search/?q=author%3AChen%2C%20Gang">Chen, Gang</a> </li></ul></div><div class="c-scholworks__publication"><a href="/uc/ucla_etd">UCLA Electronic Theses and Dissertations</a> (<!-- -->2024<!-- -->)</div><div class="c-scholworks__abstract"><div class="c-clientmarkup"><p>North American (NA) surface air temperatures in winter have been suggested to be associated with stratospheric variability, such as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) or extreme stratospheric waves. However, the robustness and underlying mechanisms are not well understood. In particular, further studies are needed to better understand the dynamical processes underlying extreme stratospheric wave events. Yet, analysis is hindered by the limited sample sizes and the difficulty of identifying these wave events. In this dissertation, we show that extreme stratospheric wave activity is accompanied by subseasonal fluctuations between warm and cold spells over North America with reanalyses and a hierarchy of climate models. Our study identifies a robust precursor of strong stratospheric wave activity for NA cold extremes on subseasonal timescales. Our findings shed light on the dynamical processes underlying extreme stratospheric wave variability, highlighting the role of vertical wave structure in stratosphere-troposphere coupling.First, we demonstrate that the vertical coupling of extreme stratospheric wave activity is distinct from the well-known anomalous polar vortex events. We measure the stratospheric wave activity using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 10 hPa geopotential height. In contrast to the increased persistence of weather regimes following SSWs, we show that extreme stratospheric wave events feature weather transitions between warm and cold spells over North America in reanalyses and climate models with various configurations. Particularly, strong stratospheric wave events are followed by an increased risk of cold extremes over North America 5–25 days later. The NA coldness is more robust following strong stratospheric wave activity than a weak polar vortex. We further examine the causality between stratospheric wave activity and NA cold extremes with idealized nudging experiments in a climate model with a well-resolved stratosphere. The stratosphere in the nudging run is fully relaxed to its counterpart in a free-running control simulation. By comparing the strong wave events between the two runs, we attribute the observed NA cold anomalies to the strong stratospheric wave activity. Moreover, vertical wave coupling is found to be key to the temperature transition during strong wave events. Further examinations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) reveal large uncertainty in the wave event evolution across individual models. It is found that models with a degraded representation of stratospheric wave structure also show biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. In order to investigate the role of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the linkage between extreme stratospheric wave activity and NA temperature, we compare strong wave events during the westerly phase (wQBO) with those during the easterly phase (eQBO). We show that, in contrast to strong stratospheric wave events under wQBO, strong wave events under eQBO do not change the cold risk over North America nor alter the vertical wave structure in the observation. We further examine this QBO dependence in QBO-resolving CMIP6 models, finding that the strong wave events in models are largely insensitive to QBO phases, a possible bias in numerical models.</p></div></div><div class="c-scholworks__media"><ul class="c-medialist"></ul></div></div><div class="c-scholworks__ancillary"><a class="c-scholworks__thumbnail" href="/uc/item/3pk8h87b"><img src="/cms-assets/432fb3953bd83c86d305741238d35b71ac47a12a7ee94e36c7ab07dc91f76b79" alt="Cover page: Linkage Between Stratospheric Variability and North American Surface Air Temperature"/></a></div></section><section class="c-scholworks"><div class="c-scholworks__main-column"><ul class="c-scholworks__tag-list"><li class="c-scholworks__tag-article">Article</li><li class="c-scholworks__tag-peer">Peer Reviewed</li></ul><div><h3 class="c-scholworks__heading"><a href="/uc/item/7hj5s1js"><div class="c-clientmarkup">North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase</div></a></h3></div><div class="c-authorlist"><ul class="c-authorlist__list"><li class="c-authorlist__begin"><a href="/search/?q=author%3ADing%2C%20Xiuyuan">Ding, Xiuyuan</a>; </li><li><a href="/search/?q=author%3AChen%2C%20Gang">Chen, Gang</a>; </li><li class="c-authorlist__end"><a href="/search/?q=author%3AMagnusdottir%2C%20Gudrun">Magnusdottir, Gudrun</a> </li></ul></div><div class="c-scholworks__publication"><a href="/uc/uci_postprints">UC Irvine Previously Published Works</a> (<!-- -->2024<!-- -->)</div><div class="c-scholworks__abstract"><div class="c-clientmarkup">Abstract: Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been linked to surface cold extremes over North America, but little is known whether the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) plays a role in this linkage. Here, by comparing strong stratospheric wave events during the westerly phase (wQBO) with those during the easterly phase (eQBO), we show that the cooling signature following strong wave events depends on the QBO phase in observations. During wQBO, strong wave events are followed by an increased risk of North American cold extremes and a vertical structure shift from a westward phase tilt to an eastward tilt. However, strong wave events under eQBO do not change the cold risk nor alter the vertical tilt. We further examine this dependence on QBO in QBO-resolving climate models, finding that the cooling signature of strong wave events in models is largely insensitive to QBO phases. This insensitivity is suggested to be linked to model biases in the stratospheric wave representation.</div></div><div class="c-scholworks__media"><ul class="c-medialist"></ul></div></div><div class="c-scholworks__ancillary"><a class="c-scholworks__thumbnail" href="/uc/item/7hj5s1js"><img src="/cms-assets/6c24acb2ab0b54533f4a7abfaee7a1dd51e09d9a8b51748cc139380be4d98635" alt="Cover page: North American cooling signature of strong stratospheric wave events depends on the QBO phase"/></a></div></section><section class="c-scholworks"><div class="c-scholworks__main-column"><ul class="c-scholworks__tag-list"><li class="c-scholworks__tag-article">Article</li><li class="c-scholworks__tag-peer">Peer Reviewed</li></ul><div><h3 class="c-scholworks__heading"><a href="/uc/item/42d93310"><div class="c-clientmarkup">Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America.</div></a></h3></div><div class="c-authorlist"><ul class="c-authorlist__list"><li class="c-authorlist__begin"><a href="/search/?q=author%3ADing%2C%20Xiuyuan">Ding, Xiuyuan</a>; </li><li><a href="/search/?q=author%3AChen%2C%20Gang">Chen, Gang</a>; </li><li><a href="/search/?q=author%3AZhang%2C%20Pengfei">Zhang, Pengfei</a>; </li><li><a href="/search/?q=author%3ADomeisen%2C%20Daniela">Domeisen, Daniela</a>; </li><li class="c-authorlist__end"><a href="/search/?q=author%3AOrbe%2C%20Clara">Orbe, Clara</a> </li></ul></div><div class="c-scholworks__publication"><a href="/uc/ucla_postprints">UCLA Previously Published Works</a> (<!-- -->2023<!-- -->)</div><div class="c-scholworks__abstract"><div class="c-clientmarkup">Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a simple measure of stratospheric wave activity for reanalyses and model outputs. In contrast to the well-known surface influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) that increase the intraseasonal persistence of weather regimes, we show that extreme stratospheric wave events are accompanied by intraseasonal fluctuations between warm and cold spells over North America in observations and climate models. Particularly, strong stratospheric wave events are followed by an increased risk of cold extremes over North America 5-25 days later. Idealized simulations in an atmospheric model with a well-resolved stratosphere corroborate that strong stratospheric wave activity precedes North American cold spells through vertical wave coupling. These findings potentially benefit the predictability of high-impact winter cold extremes over North America.</div></div><div class="c-scholworks__media"><ul class="c-medialist"></ul></div></div><div class="c-scholworks__ancillary"><a class="c-scholworks__thumbnail" href="/uc/item/42d93310"><img src="/cms-assets/d230212f79ba085d2dd9e9a07919b1d9cfe9b466a38331ab862a59008f94c316" alt="Cover page: Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America."/></a><a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" class="c-scholworks__license"><img class="c-lazyimage" data-src="/images/cc-by-small.svg" alt="Creative Commons 'BY' version 4.0 license"/></a></div></section></section></main></form></div><div><div class="c-toplink"><a href="javascript:window.scrollTo(0, 0)">Top</a></div><footer class="c-footer"><nav class="c-footer__nav"><ul><li><a href="/">Home</a></li><li><a href="/aboutEschol">About eScholarship</a></li><li><a href="/campuses">Campus Sites</a></li><li><a href="/ucoapolicies">UC Open Access Policy</a></li><li><a href="/publishing">eScholarship Publishing</a></li><li><a href="https://www.cdlib.org/about/accessibility.html">Accessibility</a></li><li><a href="/privacypolicy">Privacy Statement</a></li><li><a href="/policies">Site Policies</a></li><li><a href="/terms">Terms of Use</a></li><li><a href="/login"><strong>Admin Login</strong></a></li><li><a href="https://help.escholarship.org"><strong>Help</strong></a></li></ul></nav><div class="c-footer__logo"><a href="/"><img class="c-lazyimage" data-src="/images/logo_footer-eschol.svg" alt="eScholarship, University of California"/></a></div><div class="c-footer__copyright">Powered by the<br/><a href="http://www.cdlib.org">California Digital Library</a><br/>Copyright © 2017<br/>The Regents of the University of California</div></footer></div></div></div></div> <script src="/js/vendors~app-bundle-2aefc956e545366a5d4e.js"></script> <script src="/js/app-bundle-3c8ebc2ec05dcc3202fd.js"></script> </body> </html>