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vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#See_also"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">3</span> <span>See also</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-See_also-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> <li id="toc-References" class="vector-toc-list-item vector-toc-level-1 vector-toc-list-item-expanded"> <a class="vector-toc-link" href="#References"> <div class="vector-toc-text"> <span class="vector-toc-numb">4</span> <span>References</span> </div> </a> <ul id="toc-References-sublist" class="vector-toc-list"> </ul> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div class="mw-content-container"> <main id="content" class="mw-body"> <header class="mw-body-header vector-page-titlebar"> <nav aria-label="Contents" class="vector-toc-landmark"> <div id="vector-page-titlebar-toc" class="vector-dropdown vector-page-titlebar-toc vector-button-flush-left" title="Table of Contents" > <input type="checkbox" id="vector-page-titlebar-toc-checkbox" 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Available in 31 languages" > <label id="p-lang-btn-label" for="p-lang-btn-checkbox" class="vector-dropdown-label cdx-button cdx-button--fake-button cdx-button--fake-button--enabled cdx-button--weight-quiet cdx-button--action-progressive mw-portlet-lang-heading-31" aria-hidden="true" ><span class="vector-icon mw-ui-icon-language-progressive mw-ui-icon-wikimedia-language-progressive"></span> <span class="vector-dropdown-label-text">31 languages</span> </label> <div class="vector-dropdown-content"> <div class="vector-menu-content"> <ul class="vector-menu-content-list"> <li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ar mw-list-item"><a href="https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B2_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A1" title="انحياز البقاء – Arabic" lang="ar" hreflang="ar" data-title="انحياز البقاء" data-language-autonym="العربية" data-language-local-name="Arabic" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>العربية</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-be mw-list-item"><a href="https://be.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%BC%D1%8B%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0" title="Памылка ацалелага – Belarusian" lang="be" hreflang="be" data-title="Памылка ацалелага" data-language-autonym="Беларуская" data-language-local-name="Belarusian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Беларуская</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ca mw-list-item"><a href="https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biaix_de_superviv%C3%A8ncia" title="Biaix de supervivència – Catalan" lang="ca" hreflang="ca" data-title="Biaix de supervivència" data-language-autonym="Català" data-language-local-name="Catalan" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Català</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cv mw-list-item"><a href="https://cv.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D1%83%D0%B9%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BD%C4%83_%D1%87%D1%83%D1%85%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%B8_%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BC%C4%83%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B0_%D0%B9%C4%83%D0%BD%C4%83%D1%88" title="Суйланă чухнехи системăлла йăнăш – Chuvash" lang="cv" hreflang="cv" data-title="Суйланă чухнехи системăлла йăнăш" data-language-autonym="Чӑвашла" data-language-local-name="Chuvash" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Чӑвашла</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-cy mw-list-item"><a href="https://cy.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_goroesedd" title="Bias goroesedd – Welsh" lang="cy" hreflang="cy" data-title="Bias goroesedd" data-language-autonym="Cymraeg" data-language-local-name="Welsh" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Cymraeg</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-da mw-list-item"><a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overlevelsesbias" title="Overlevelsesbias – Danish" lang="da" hreflang="da" data-title="Overlevelsesbias" data-language-autonym="Dansk" data-language-local-name="Danish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Dansk</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-de mw-list-item"><a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_Bias" title="Survivorship Bias – German" lang="de" hreflang="de" data-title="Survivorship Bias" data-language-autonym="Deutsch" data-language-local-name="German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Deutsch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-et mw-list-item"><a href="https://et.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elluj%C3%A4%C3%A4jate_efekt" title="Ellujääjate efekt – Estonian" lang="et" hreflang="et" data-title="Ellujääjate efekt" data-language-autonym="Eesti" data-language-local-name="Estonian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Eesti</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-es mw-list-item"><a href="https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sesgo_del_superviviente" title="Sesgo del superviviente – Spanish" lang="es" hreflang="es" data-title="Sesgo del superviviente" data-language-autonym="Español" data-language-local-name="Spanish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Español</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fa mw-list-item"><a href="https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%B3%D9%88%DA%AF%DB%8C%D8%B1%DB%8C_%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%DA%AF%DB%8C" title="سوگیری بازماندگی – Persian" lang="fa" hreflang="fa" data-title="سوگیری بازماندگی" data-language-autonym="فارسی" data-language-local-name="Persian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>فارسی</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fr mw-list-item"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biais_des_survivants" title="Biais des survivants – French" lang="fr" hreflang="fr" data-title="Biais des survivants" data-language-autonym="Français" data-language-local-name="French" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Français</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ko mw-list-item"><a href="https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EC%83%9D%EC%A1%B4_%ED%8E%B8%ED%96%A5" title="생존 편향 – Korean" lang="ko" hreflang="ko" data-title="생존 편향" data-language-autonym="한국어" data-language-local-name="Korean" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>한국어</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-id mw-list-item"><a href="https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_kebertahanan" title="Bias kebertahanan – Indonesian" lang="id" hreflang="id" data-title="Bias kebertahanan" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Indonesia" data-language-local-name="Indonesian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Indonesia</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-it mw-list-item"><a href="https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias" title="Survivorship bias – Italian" lang="it" hreflang="it" data-title="Survivorship bias" data-language-autonym="Italiano" data-language-local-name="Italian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Italiano</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-he mw-list-item"><a href="https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94%D7%98%D7%99%D7%99%D7%AA_%D7%94%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%93%D7%95%D7%AA" title="הטיית הישרדות – Hebrew" lang="he" hreflang="he" data-title="הטיית הישרדות" data-language-autonym="עברית" data-language-local-name="Hebrew" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>עברית</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-lt mw-list-item"><a href="https://lt.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%C5%A1likusiojo_klaida" title="Išlikusiojo klaida – Lithuanian" lang="lt" hreflang="lt" data-title="Išlikusiojo klaida" data-language-autonym="Lietuvių" data-language-local-name="Lithuanian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Lietuvių</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ms mw-list-item"><a href="https://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_kemandirian" title="Bias kemandirian – Malay" lang="ms" hreflang="ms" data-title="Bias kemandirian" data-language-autonym="Bahasa Melayu" data-language-local-name="Malay" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Bahasa Melayu</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ne mw-list-item"><a href="https://ne.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%A4%89%E0%A4%A4%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%B0%E0%A4%9C%E0%A5%80%E0%A4%B5%E0%A5%80_%E0%A4%AA%E0%A5%82%E0%A4%B0%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B5%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%97%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B0%E0%A4%B9" title="उत्तरजीवी पूर्वाग्रह – Nepali" lang="ne" hreflang="ne" data-title="उत्तरजीवी पूर्वाग्रह" data-language-autonym="नेपाली" data-language-local-name="Nepali" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>नेपाली</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ja mw-list-item"><a href="https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%94%9F%E5%AD%98%E8%80%85%E3%83%90%E3%82%A4%E3%82%A2%E3%82%B9" title="生存者バイアス – Japanese" lang="ja" hreflang="ja" data-title="生存者バイアス" data-language-autonym="日本語" data-language-local-name="Japanese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>日本語</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pfl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pfl.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cberlebensirrtum" title="Überlebensirrtum – Palatine German" lang="pfl" hreflang="pfl" data-title="Überlebensirrtum" data-language-autonym="Pälzisch" data-language-local-name="Palatine German" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Pälzisch</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pl mw-list-item"><a href="https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C5%82%C4%85d_prze%C5%BCywalno%C5%9Bci" title="Błąd przeżywalności – Polish" lang="pl" hreflang="pl" data-title="Błąd przeżywalności" data-language-autonym="Polski" data-language-local-name="Polish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Polski</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-pt mw-list-item"><a href="https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vi%C3%A9s_de_sobreviv%C3%AAncia" title="Viés de sobrevivência – Portuguese" lang="pt" hreflang="pt" data-title="Viés de sobrevivência" data-language-autonym="Português" data-language-local-name="Portuguese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Português</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-ru mw-list-item"><a href="https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BE%D1%88%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BA%D0%B0_%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE" title="Систематическая ошибка выжившего – Russian" lang="ru" hreflang="ru" data-title="Систематическая ошибка выжившего" data-language-autonym="Русский" data-language-local-name="Russian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Русский</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sk mw-list-item"><a href="https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias" title="Survivorship bias – Slovak" lang="sk" hreflang="sk" data-title="Survivorship bias" data-language-autonym="Slovenčina" data-language-local-name="Slovak" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Slovenčina</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-fi mw-list-item"><a href="https://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selviytymisharha" title="Selviytymisharha – Finnish" lang="fi" hreflang="fi" data-title="Selviytymisharha" data-language-autonym="Suomi" data-language-local-name="Finnish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Suomi</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-sv mw-list-item"><a href="https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%96verlevnadsbias" title="Överlevnadsbias – Swedish" lang="sv" hreflang="sv" data-title="Överlevnadsbias" data-language-autonym="Svenska" data-language-local-name="Swedish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Svenska</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-th mw-list-item"><a href="https://th.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B8%84%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A1%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%B5%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%B9%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%94" title="ความเอนเอียงจากการอยู่รอด – Thai" lang="th" hreflang="th" data-title="ความเอนเอียงจากการอยู่รอด" data-language-autonym="ไทย" data-language-local-name="Thai" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>ไทย</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-tr mw-list-item"><a href="https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayatta_kalma_yan%C4%B1lg%C4%B1s%C4%B1" title="Hayatta kalma yanılgısı – Turkish" lang="tr" hreflang="tr" data-title="Hayatta kalma yanılgısı" data-language-autonym="Türkçe" data-language-local-name="Turkish" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Türkçe</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-uk mw-list-item"><a href="https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A3%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F" title="Упередження виживання – Ukrainian" lang="uk" hreflang="uk" data-title="Упередження виживання" data-language-autonym="Українська" data-language-local-name="Ukrainian" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>Українська</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh-yue mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh-yue.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%80%96%E5%AD%98%E5%81%8F%E8%AA%A4" title="倖存偏誤 – Cantonese" lang="yue" hreflang="yue" data-title="倖存偏誤" data-language-autonym="粵語" data-language-local-name="Cantonese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>粵語</span></a></li><li class="interlanguage-link interwiki-zh mw-list-item"><a href="https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%80%96%E5%AD%98%E8%80%85%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE" title="倖存者偏差 – Chinese" lang="zh" hreflang="zh" data-title="倖存者偏差" data-language-autonym="中文" data-language-local-name="Chinese" class="interlanguage-link-target"><span>中文</span></a></li> </ul> <div class="after-portlet after-portlet-lang"><span class="wb-langlinks-edit wb-langlinks-link"><a href="https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q2919077#sitelinks-wikipedia" title="Edit interlanguage links" class="wbc-editpage">Edit links</a></span></div> </div> </div> </div> </header> <div class="vector-page-toolbar"> 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data-event-name="pinnable-header.vector-appearance.unpin">hide</button> </div> </div> </div> </nav> </div> </div> <div id="bodyContent" class="vector-body" aria-labelledby="firstHeading" data-mw-ve-target-container> <div class="vector-body-before-content"> <div class="mw-indicators"> </div> <div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> </div> <div id="contentSub"><div id="mw-content-subtitle"></div></div> <div id="mw-content-text" class="mw-body-content"><div class="mw-content-ltr mw-parser-output" lang="en" dir="ltr"><div class="shortdescription nomobile noexcerpt noprint searchaux" style="display:none">Logical error, form of selection bias</div> <p class="mw-empty-elt"> </p> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Survivorship-bias.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b2/Survivorship-bias.svg/300px-Survivorship-bias.svg.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="224" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b2/Survivorship-bias.svg/450px-Survivorship-bias.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b2/Survivorship-bias.svg/600px-Survivorship-bias.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1338" data-file-height="997" /></a><figcaption>Diagram in which red dots stand for places where surviving planes were shot. This only tells you where planes can get shot and still come back to base. Survivorship bias: your only information is what has survived.</figcaption></figure> <p><b>Survivorship bias</b> or <b>survival bias</b> is the <a href="/wiki/Logical_error" class="mw-redirect" title="Logical error">logical error</a> of concentrating on entities that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not. This can lead to incorrect conclusions because of incomplete data. </p><p>Survivorship bias is a form of <a href="/wiki/Sampling_bias" title="Sampling bias">sampling bias</a> that can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because multiple failures are overlooked, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just coincidence as in <a href="/wiki/Correlation_does_not_equal_causation" class="mw-redirect" title="Correlation does not equal causation">correlation "proves" causality</a>. </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="As_a_general_experimental_flaw">As a general experimental flaw</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: As a general experimental flaw"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>The <a href="/wiki/Parapsychology" title="Parapsychology">parapsychology</a> researcher <a href="/wiki/Joseph_Banks_Rhine" title="Joseph Banks Rhine">Joseph Banks Rhine</a> believed he had identified the few individuals from hundreds of potential subjects who had powers of <a href="/wiki/Extra-sensory_perception" class="mw-redirect" title="Extra-sensory perception">extra-sensory perception</a> (ESP). His calculations were based on the <a href="/wiki/Improbability" class="mw-redirect" title="Improbability">improbability</a> of these few subjects guessing the <a href="/wiki/Zener_cards" title="Zener cards">Zener cards</a> shown to a partner <a href="/wiki/By_chance" class="mw-redirect" title="By chance">by chance</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A major criticism that surfaced against his calculations was the possibility of unconscious survivorship bias in subject selections. He was accused of failing to take into account the large effective <a href="/wiki/Sample_size_determination" title="Sample size determination">size of his sample</a>; that is, all the subjects he rejected as not being "strong <a href="/wiki/Telepath" class="mw-redirect" title="Telepath">telepaths</a>" because they had failed at an earlier testing stage. Had he done this, he might have seen that from the large sample, one or two individuals would probably achieve—purely by chance—the track record of success he observed. </p><p>Writing about the Rhine case in <i><a href="/wiki/Fads_and_Fallacies_in_the_Name_of_Science" title="Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science">Fads and Fallacies in the Name of Science</a></i>, <a href="/wiki/Martin_Gardner" title="Martin Gardner">Martin Gardner</a> explained that the experimenters had made such obvious mistakes not out of <a href="/wiki/Statistical" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistical">statistical</a> naivety, but rather as a result of subtly disregarding poorly performing subjects. He said that, even without trickery of any kind, if a large enough sample were taken, there would always be a certain number of subjects who demonstrated improbable success. To illustrate this, he speculates about what would happen if one hundred professors of <a href="/wiki/Psychology" title="Psychology">psychology</a> read Rhine's work and decided to make their own tests; he said that survivor bias would winnow out the typically failed experiments, while encouraging the lucky successes to continue testing. </p><p>He postulated that experiments confirming the <a href="/wiki/Null_hypothesis" title="Null hypothesis">null hypothesis</a> (i.e., showing no result) would not be reported, but "[e]ventually, one experimenter remains whose subject has made high scores for six or seven successive sessions. Neither experimenter nor subject is aware of the other ninety-nine projects, and so both have a strong delusion that ESP is operating." He concludes: "The experimenter writes an enthusiastic paper, sends it to Rhine who publishes it in his magazine, and the readers are greatly impressed."<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>If sufficiently many <a href="/wiki/Scientist" title="Scientist">scientists</a> study a phenomenon, some will find <a href="/wiki/Statistically_significant" class="mw-redirect" title="Statistically significant">statistically significant</a> results by chance, and these are the experiments submitted for publication. Additionally, papers showing positive results may be more appealing to editors.<sup id="cite_ref-ioannidis2005_3-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ioannidis2005-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> This problem is known as <i>positive results bias</i>, a type of <a href="/wiki/Publication_bias" title="Publication bias">publication bias</a>. To combat this, some editors now specifically call for the submission of "negative" scientific findings, where "nothing happened".<sup id="cite_ref-vanHilten2015_4-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-vanHilten2015-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Survivorship bias is one of the research issues brought up in the provocative 2005 paper "<a href="/wiki/Why_Most_Published_Research_Findings_Are_False" title="Why Most Published Research Findings Are False">Why Most Published Research Findings Are False</a>", which shows that a large number of published <a href="/wiki/Medical_research" title="Medical research">medical research</a> papers contain results that cannot be replicated.<sup id="cite_ref-ioannidis2005_3-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ioannidis2005-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>One famous example of <a href="/wiki/Immortal_time_bias" class="mw-redirect" title="Immortal time bias">immortal time bias</a> occurred in a study by Redelmeier and Singh, which was published in the <i><a href="/wiki/Annals_of_Internal_Medicine" title="Annals of Internal Medicine">Annals of Internal Medicine</a></i> and purported to show that <a href="/wiki/Academy_Award" class="mw-redirect" title="Academy Award">Academy Award</a>-winning actors and actresses lived almost four years longer than their less successful peers.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The statistical method used to derive this statistically significant difference, however, gave winners an unfair advantage, because it credited winners' years of life before winning toward survival subsequent to winning. When the data was reanalyzed using methods that avoided this immortal time bias, the survival advantage was closer to one year and was not statistically significant.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Examples">Examples</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Examples"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Finance_and_economics">Finance and economics</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Finance and economics"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In finance, survivorship bias is the tendency for failed companies to be excluded from performance studies because they no longer exist. It often causes the results of studies to skew higher because only companies that were successful enough to survive until the end of the period are included. For example, a <a href="/wiki/Mutual_fund" title="Mutual fund">mutual fund</a> company's selection of funds today will include only those that are successful now. Many losing funds are closed and merged into other funds to hide poor performance. In theory, 70% of extant funds could truthfully claim to have performance in the first quartile of their peers, if the peer group includes funds that have closed.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In 1996, Elton, Gruber, and Blake showed that survivorship bias is larger in the small-fund sector than in large mutual funds (presumably because small funds have a high probability of folding).<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> They estimate the size of the bias across the U.S. mutual fund industry as 0.9% per annum, where the bias is defined and measured as: </p> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1244412712">.mw-parser-output .templatequote{overflow:hidden;margin:1em 0;padding:0 32px}.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{line-height:1.5em;text-align:left;margin-top:0}@media(min-width:500px){.mw-parser-output .templatequotecite{padding-left:1.6em}}</style><blockquote class="templatequote"><div class="poem"> <p>"Bias is defined as average α for surviving funds minus average α for all funds"<br /> <br /> (Where <a href="/wiki/Alpha_(investment)" class="mw-redirect" title="Alpha (investment)">α</a> is the risk-adjusted return over the <a href="/wiki/S%26P_500" title="S&P 500">S&P 500</a>. This is the standard measure of mutual fund out-performance). </p> </div></blockquote> <p>Additionally, in the financial field survivorship bias is the use of a current index membership set rather than using the actual constituent changes over time. Consider a backtest to 1990 to find the average performance (total return) of S&P 500 members who have paid dividends within the previous year. To use the current 500 members only and create a historical equity line of the total return of the companies that met the criteria would be adding survivorship bias to the results. S&P maintains an index of healthy companies, removing companies that no longer meet their criteria as a representative of the large-cap U.S. stock market. Companies that had healthy growth on their way to inclusion in the S&P 500 would be counted as if they were in the index during that growth period, which they were not. Instead there may have been another company in the index that was losing market capitalization and was destined for the S&P 600 Small-cap Index that was later removed and would not be counted in the results. Using the actual membership of the index and applying entry and exit dates to gain the appropriate return during inclusion in the index would allow for a bias-free output. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Business">Business</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: Business"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Vizag_Public_Library-AB_10.jpg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Vizag_Public_Library-AB_10.jpg/220px-Vizag_Public_Library-AB_10.jpg" decoding="async" width="220" height="165" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Vizag_Public_Library-AB_10.jpg/330px-Vizag_Public_Library-AB_10.jpg 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Vizag_Public_Library-AB_10.jpg/440px-Vizag_Public_Library-AB_10.jpg 2x" data-file-width="4640" data-file-height="3480" /></a><figcaption>Framed quotes of successful CEOs in a public library</figcaption></figure> <p><a href="/wiki/Michael_Shermer" title="Michael Shermer">Michael Shermer</a> in <i><a href="/wiki/Scientific_American" title="Scientific American">Scientific American</a></i><sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and Larry Smith of the <a href="/wiki/University_of_Waterloo" title="University of Waterloo">University of Waterloo</a><sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> have described how advice about commercial success distorts perceptions of it by ignoring all of the businesses and college <a href="/wiki/Dropping_out" title="Dropping out">dropouts</a> that failed.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Journalist and author David McRaney observes that the "advice business is a monopoly run by survivors. When something becomes a non-survivor, it is either completely eliminated, or whatever voice it has is muted to zero".<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>12<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Alec Liu wrote in <i><a href="/wiki/Vice_(magazine)" title="Vice (magazine)">Vice</a></i> that "for every <a href="/wiki/Mark_Zuckerberg" title="Mark Zuckerberg">Mark Zuckerberg</a>, there's thousands of also-rans, who had parties no one ever attended, obsolete before we ever knew they existed."<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>13<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>In his book <a href="/wiki/The_Black_Swan_(Taleb_book)" class="mw-redirect" title="The Black Swan (Taleb book)"><i>The Black Swan</i></a>, financial writer <a href="/wiki/Nassim_Taleb" class="mw-redirect" title="Nassim Taleb">Nassim Taleb</a> called the data obscured by survivorship bias "silent evidence".<sup id="cite_ref-14" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-14"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>14<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="History">History</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=5" title="Edit section: History"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Diagoras_of_Melos" title="Diagoras of Melos">Diagoras of Melos</a> was asked concerning paintings of those who had escaped shipwreck: "Look, you who think the gods have no care of human things, what do you say to so many persons preserved from death by their especial favour?", to which Diagoras replied: "Why, I say that their pictures are not here who were cast away, who are by much the greater number."<sup id="cite_ref-15" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-15"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>15<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A similar story is told about <a href="/wiki/Diogenes_of_Sinope" class="mw-redirect" title="Diogenes of Sinope">Diogenes of Sinope</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-16" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-16"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>16<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Susan Mumm has described how survival bias leads historians to study organisations that are still in existence more than those that have closed. This means large, successful organisations such as the <a href="/wiki/Women%27s_Institute" title="Women's Institute">Women's Institute</a>, which were well organised and still have accessible archives for historians to work from, are studied more than smaller charitable organisations, even though these may have done a great deal of work.<sup id="cite_ref-17" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-17"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>17<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Highly_competitive_career">Highly competitive career</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=6" title="Edit section: Highly competitive career"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Whether it be movie stars, athletes, musicians, or CEOs of multibillion-dollar corporations who dropped out of school, popular media often tells the story of the <a href="/wiki/Self-made_man" title="Self-made man">determined individual</a> who pursues their dreams and beats the odds. There is much less focus on the many people that may be similarly skilled and determined, but fail to ever find success because of factors beyond their control or other (seemingly) random events. There is also a tendency to overlook resources and events that helped enable such success, that those who failed didn't have.<sup id="cite_ref-18" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-18"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>18<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>For example, a 2013 study found that 91% of <a href="/wiki/Performing_arts" title="Performing arts">artists</a> were undiscovered on social media, and just 1.1% were mainstream or mega-sized.<sup id="cite_ref-19" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-19"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>19<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The overwhelming majority of failures are not visible to the public eye, and only those who survive the selective pressures of their competitive environment are seen regularly. </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Military">Military</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=7" title="Edit section: Military"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <figure class="mw-default-size" typeof="mw:File/Thumb"><a href="/wiki/File:Survivorship-bias.svg" class="mw-file-description"><img src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b2/Survivorship-bias.svg/300px-Survivorship-bias.svg.png" decoding="async" width="300" height="224" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b2/Survivorship-bias.svg/450px-Survivorship-bias.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b2/Survivorship-bias.svg/600px-Survivorship-bias.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="1338" data-file-height="997" /></a><figcaption>This hypothetical pattern of damage of surviving aircraft shows locations where they can sustain damage and still return home. If the aircraft was reinforced in the indicated areas, this would be a result of survivorship bias because crucial data from fatally damaged planes was being ignored; those hit in other places did not survive.</figcaption></figure> <p>During <a href="/wiki/World_War_II" title="World War II">World War II</a>, the statistician <a href="/wiki/Abraham_Wald" title="Abraham Wald">Abraham Wald</a> took survivorship bias into his calculations when considering how to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire.<sup id="cite_ref-Wald1943_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wald1943-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The <a href="/wiki/Statistical_Research_Group" title="Statistical Research Group">Statistical Research Group</a> (SRG) at <a href="/wiki/Columbia_University" title="Columbia University">Columbia University</a>, which Wald was a part of, examined the damage done to aircraft that had returned from missions and recommended adding armor to the areas that showed the least damage.<sup id="cite_ref-21" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-21"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>21<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-22" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-22"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>22<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-23" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-23"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>23<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The bullet holes in the returning aircraft represented areas where a bomber could take damage and still fly well enough to return safely to base. Therefore, Wald proposed that the Navy reinforce areas where the returning aircraft were unscathed,<sup id="cite_ref-Wald1943_20-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Wald1943-20"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>20<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup class="reference nowrap"><span title="Page: 88">: 88 </span></sup> inferring that planes hit in those areas were the ones most likely to be lost. His work is considered seminal in the then nascent discipline of <a href="/wiki/Operational_research" class="mw-redirect" title="Operational research">operational research</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-Mangel1984_24-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Mangel1984-24"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>24<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Cats">Cats</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=8" title="Edit section: Cats"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>In a study performed in 1987, it was reported that cats who fall from less than six stories, and are still alive, have greater injuries than cats who fall from higher than six stories.<sup id="cite_ref-25" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-25"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>25<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-26" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-26"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>26<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> It has been proposed that this might happen because cats reach <a href="/wiki/Terminal_velocity" title="Terminal velocity">terminal velocity</a> after righting themselves at about five stories, and after this point they relax, leading to less severe injuries in cats who have fallen from six or more stories.<sup id="cite_ref-27" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-27"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>27<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In 1996, <i><a href="/wiki/The_Straight_Dope" title="The Straight Dope">The Straight Dope</a></i> newspaper column proposed that another possible explanation for this phenomenon would be survivorship bias. Cats that die in falls are less likely to be brought to a veterinarian than injured cats, and thus many of the cats killed in falls from higher buildings are not reported in studies of the subject.<sup id="cite_ref-straightdope_28-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-straightdope-28"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>28<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Studies_of_evolution">Studies of evolution</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=9" title="Edit section: Studies of evolution"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Large groups of organisms called <a href="/wiki/Clades" class="mw-redirect" title="Clades">clades</a> that survive a long time are subject to various survivorship biases such as the "<a href="/wiki/Push_of_the_past" title="Push of the past">push of the past</a>", generating the illusion that clades in <i>general</i> tend to originate with a high rate of <a href="/wiki/Genetic_divergence" title="Genetic divergence">diversification</a> that then slows through time.<sup id="cite_ref-POTPa_29-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-POTPa-29"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>29<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="Business_law">Business law</h3><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=10" title="Edit section: Business law"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Survivorship bias can raise <a href="/wiki/False_advertising" title="False advertising">truth-in-advertising</a> issues when the success rate advertised for a product or service is measured by reference to a population whose makeup differs from that of the target audience for the advertisement. This is especially important when </p> <ol><li>the advertisement either fails to disclose the relevant differences between the two populations, or describes them in insufficient detail; and</li> <li>these differences result from the company's deliberate "pre-screening" of prospective customers to ensure that only customers with traits increasing their likelihood of success are allowed to purchase the product or service, especially when the company's selection procedures or evaluation standards are kept <a href="/wiki/Trade_secret" title="Trade secret">secret</a>; and</li> <li>the company offering the product or service charges a fee, especially one that is non-refundable or not disclosed in the advertisement, for the privilege of attempting to become a customer.</li></ol> <p>For example, the advertisements of online dating service <a href="/wiki/EHarmony" title="EHarmony">eHarmony.com</a> fail a truth in advertising test because they fail the first two prongs and pass the third, when all three must be passed: </p> <ol><li>they claim a success rate significantly higher than that of competing services while generally not disclosing that the rate is calculated with respect to a viewership subset of individuals who possess traits that increase their likelihood of finding and maintaining relationships and lack traits that pose obstacles to their doing so, and</li> <li>the company deliberately selects for these traits by administering a lengthy <a href="/wiki/EHarmony#Criticism" title="EHarmony">pre-screening process</a> designed to reject prospective customers who lack the former traits or possess the latter ones, <b>but </b></li> <li>the company does <b>not</b> charge a fee for administration of its pre-screening test; thus its prospective customers face no "downside risk" other than wasting their time, expending the effort involved in completing the pre-screening process,<sup id="cite_ref-30" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-30"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>30<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and suffering disappointment.</li></ol> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=11" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1266661725">.mw-parser-output .portalbox{padding:0;margin:0.5em 0;display:table;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:175px;list-style:none}.mw-parser-output .portalborder{border:1px solid var(--border-color-base,#a2a9b1);padding:0.1em;background:var(--background-color-neutral-subtle,#f8f9fa)}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-entry{display:table-row;font-size:85%;line-height:110%;height:1.9em;font-style:italic;font-weight:bold}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-image{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em;vertical-align:middle;text-align:center}.mw-parser-output .portalbox-link{display:table-cell;padding:0.2em 0.2em 0.2em 0.3em;vertical-align:middle}@media(min-width:720px){.mw-parser-output .portalleft{margin:0.5em 1em 0.5em 0}.mw-parser-output .portalright{clear:right;float:right;margin:0.5em 0 0.5em 1em}}</style><ul role="navigation" aria-label="Portals" class="noprint portalbox portalborder portalright"> <li class="portalbox-entry"><span class="portalbox-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/28px-Psi2.svg.png" decoding="async" width="28" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/42px-Psi2.svg.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Psi2.svg/56px-Psi2.svg.png 2x" data-file-width="100" data-file-height="100" /></span></span></span><span class="portalbox-link"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Psychology" title="Portal:Psychology">Psychology portal</a></span></li><li class="portalbox-entry"><span class="portalbox-image"><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span><img alt="" src="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Socrates.png/18px-Socrates.png" decoding="async" width="18" height="28" class="mw-file-element" srcset="//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Socrates.png/27px-Socrates.png 1.5x, //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Socrates.png/36px-Socrates.png 2x" data-file-width="326" data-file-height="500" /></span></span></span><span class="portalbox-link"><a href="/wiki/Portal:Philosophy" title="Portal:Philosophy">Philosophy portal</a></span></li></ul> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1184024115">.mw-parser-output .div-col{margin-top:0.3em;column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .div-col-small{font-size:90%}.mw-parser-output .div-col-rules{column-rule:1px solid #aaa}.mw-parser-output .div-col dl,.mw-parser-output .div-col ol,.mw-parser-output .div-col ul{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .div-col li,.mw-parser-output .div-col dd{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}</style><div class="div-col" style="column-width: 30em;"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Anthropic_principle" title="Anthropic principle">Anthropic principle</a> – Hypothesis about sapient life and the universe<sup id="cite_ref-31" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-31"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>31<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Availability_heuristic" title="Availability heuristic">Availability heuristic</a> – Bias towards recently acquired information</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cherry_picking" title="Cherry picking">Cherry picking</a> – Fallacy of incomplete evidence</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness" title="Fooled by Randomness"><i>Fooled by Randomness</i></a> – Book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inspiration_porn" title="Inspiration porn">Inspiration porn</a> – Ableist portrayal of disabled people</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lindy_effect" title="Lindy effect">Lindy effect</a> – Theorized increase of longevity with age</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Malmquist_bias" title="Malmquist bias">Malmquist bias</a> – Sampling bias in astronomy</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Meta-analysis" title="Meta-analysis">Meta-analysis</a> – Statistical method that summarizes and/or integrates data from multiple sources</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multiple_comparisons_problem" title="Multiple comparisons problem">Multiple comparisons problem</a> – Statistical interpretation with many tests</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Myth_of_meritocracy" title="Myth of meritocracy">Myth of meritocracy</a> – Sociological concept</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc" title="Post hoc ergo propter hoc">Post hoc ergo propter hoc</a> – Fallacy of assumption of causality based on sequence of events</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Selection_principle" title="Selection principle">Selection principle</a> – Rule in mathematics</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy" title="Texas sharpshooter fallacy">Texas sharpshooter fallacy</a> – Statistical fallacy</li></ul> </div> <p><br /> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Survivorship_bias&action=edit&section=12" title="Edit section: References"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239543626">.mw-parser-output .reflist{margin-bottom:0.5em;list-style-type:decimal}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .reflist{font-size:90%}}.mw-parser-output .reflist .references{font-size:100%;margin-bottom:0;list-style-type:inherit}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-2{column-width:30em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns-3{column-width:25em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns{margin-top:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns ol{margin-top:0}.mw-parser-output .reflist-columns li{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-alpha{list-style-type:upper-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-upper-roman{list-style-type:upper-roman}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-alpha{list-style-type:lower-alpha}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-greek{list-style-type:lower-greek}.mw-parser-output .reflist-lower-roman{list-style-type:lower-roman}</style><div class="reflist"> <div class="mw-references-wrap mw-references-columns"><ol class="references"> <li id="cite_note-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-1">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">.mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit;word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"\"""\"""'""'"}.mw-parser-output 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A Reanalysis of the Evidence". <i>Annals of Internal Medicine</i>. <b>145</b> (5): <span class="nowrap">361–</span>3, discussion 392. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.7326%2F0003-4819-145-5-200609050-00009">10.7326/0003-4819-145-5-200609050-00009</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISSN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISSN (identifier)">ISSN</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://search.worldcat.org/issn/0003-4819">0003-4819</a>. <a href="/wiki/PMID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="PMID (identifier)">PMID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16954361">16954361</a>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:13724567">13724567</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Annals+of+Internal+Medicine&rft.atitle=Do+Oscar+Winners+Live+Longer+than+Less+Successful+Peers%3F+A+Reanalysis+of+the+Evidence&rft.volume=145&rft.issue=5&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E361-%3C%2Fspan%3E3%2C+discussion+392&rft.date=2006-09-05&rft.issn=0003-4819&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A13724567%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Apmid%2F16954361&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.7326%2F0003-4819-145-5-200609050-00009&rft.aulast=Sylvestre&rft.aufirst=Marie-Pierre&rft.au=Huszti%2C+Ella&rft.au=Hanley%2C+James+A.&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=94879&start=100">"How to think about diversification - Page 3 - Bogleheads.org"</a>. <i>www.bogleheads.org</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20201029122404/https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=94879&start=100">Archived</a> from the original on 29 October 2020<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">26 October</span> 2020</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=www.bogleheads.org&rft.atitle=How+to+think+about+diversification+-+Page+3+-+Bogleheads.org&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bogleheads.org%2Fforum%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D94879%26start%3D100&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFEltonGruberBlake1996" class="citation journal cs1">Elton; Gruber; Blake (1996). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Frfs%2F9.4.1097">"Survivorship Bias and Mutual Fund Performance"</a>. <i><a href="/wiki/Review_of_Financial_Studies" class="mw-redirect" title="Review of Financial Studies">Review of Financial Studies</a></i>. <b>9</b> (4): <span class="nowrap">1097–</span>1120. <a href="/wiki/Doi_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="Doi (identifier)">doi</a>:<span class="id-lock-free" title="Freely accessible"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Frfs%2F9.4.1097">10.1093/rfs/9.4.1097</a></span>. <a href="/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="S2CID (identifier)">S2CID</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:154097782">154097782</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Review+of+Financial+Studies&rft.atitle=Survivorship+Bias+and+Mutual+Fund+Performance&rft.volume=9&rft.issue=4&rft.pages=%3Cspan+class%3D%22nowrap%22%3E1097-%3C%2Fspan%3E1120&rft.date=1996&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1093%2Frfs%2F9.4.1097&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A154097782%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft.au=Elton&rft.au=Gruber&rft.au=Blake&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fdoi.org%2F10.1093%252Frfs%252F9.4.1097&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span> In this paper the researchers eliminate survivorship bias by following the returns on all funds extant at the end of 1976. They show that other researchers have drawn spurious conclusions by failing to include the bias in regressions on fund performance.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMichael_Shermer2014" class="citation news cs1">Michael Shermer (19 August 2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-survivor-bias-distorts-reality/">"How the Survivor Bias Distorts Reality"</a>. Scientific American. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190429051345/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-survivor-bias-distorts-reality/">Archived</a> from the original on 29 April 2019<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">20 July</span> 2015</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=How+the+Survivor+Bias+Distorts+Reality&rft.date=2014-08-19&rft.au=Michael+Shermer&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scientificamerican.com%2Farticle%2Fhow-the-survivor-bias-distorts-reality%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFCarmine_Gallo2012" class="citation web cs1">Carmine Gallo (7 December 2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2012/12/06/high-tech-dropouts-misinterpret-steve-jobs-advice/">"High-Tech Dropouts Misinterpret Steve Jobs' Advice"</a>. <i>Forbes</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190402105848/https://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2012/12/06/high-tech-dropouts-misinterpret-steve-jobs-advice/">Archived</a> from the original on 2 April 2019<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">15 September</span> 2017</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=Forbes&rft.atitle=High-Tech+Dropouts+Misinterpret+Steve+Jobs%27+Advice&rft.date=2012-12-07&rft.au=Carmine+Gallo&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fcarminegallo%2F2012%2F12%2F06%2Fhigh-tech-dropouts-misinterpret-steve-jobs-advice%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFRobert_J_Zimmer2013" class="citation web cs1">Robert J Zimmer (1 March 2013). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/the-myth-of-the-successful-college-dropout-why-it-could-make-millions-of-young-americans-poorer/273628/">"The Myth of the Successful College Dropout: Why It Could Make Millions of Young Americans Poorer"</a>. The Atlantic. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190409011625/https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/the-myth-of-the-successful-college-dropout-why-it-could-make-millions-of-young-americans-poorer/273628/">Archived</a> from the original on 9 April 2019<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">11 March</span> 2017</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=The+Myth+of+the+Successful+College+Dropout%3A+Why+It+Could+Make+Millions+of+Young+Americans+Poorer&rft.pub=The+Atlantic&rft.date=2013-03-01&rft.au=Robert+J+Zimmer&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theatlantic.com%2Fbusiness%2Farchive%2F2013%2F03%2Fthe-myth-of-the-successful-college-dropout-why-it-could-make-millions-of-young-americans-poorer%2F273628%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-12"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-12">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFKaren_E._Klein2014" class="citation news cs1">Karen E. Klein (11 August 2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-08-11/success-stories-how-survivorship-bias-tricks-entrepreneurs">"How Survivorship Bias Tricks Entrepreneurs"</a>. <i>Bloomberg</i>. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160307234853/http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-08-11/success-stories-how-survivorship-bias-tricks-entrepreneurs">Archived</a> from the original on 7 March 2016<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">11 March</span> 2017</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Bloomberg&rft.atitle=How+Survivorship+Bias+Tricks+Entrepreneurs&rft.date=2014-08-11&rft.au=Karen+E.+Klein&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fbw%2Farticles%2F2014-08-11%2Fsuccess-stories-how-survivorship-bias-tricks-entrepreneurs&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-13"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-13">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFAlec_Liu2012" class="citation news cs1">Alec Liu (3 October 2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/pggg3z/what-happened-to-the-facebook-killer-it-s-complicated">"What Happened to the Facebook Killer? It's Complicated"</a>. Motherboard - Tech by Vice. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20231207180713/https://www.vice.com/en/article/pggg3z/what-happened-to-the-facebook-killer-it-s-complicated">Archived</a> from the original on 7 December 2023<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">6 December</span> 2023</span>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=What+Happened+to+the+Facebook+Killer%3F+It%27s+Complicated&rft.date=2012-10-03&rft.au=Alec+Liu&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vice.com%2Fen%2Farticle%2Fpggg3z%2Fwhat-happened-to-the-facebook-killer-it-s-complicated&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-14"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-14">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFTaleb2010" class="citation book cs1">Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2010). <span class="id-lock-limited" title="Free access subject to limited trial, subscription normally required"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/blackswanimpacth00tale_767"><i>The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable</i></a></span> (2nd ed.). New York: Random House. p. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://archive.org/details/blackswanimpacth00tale_767/page/n132">101</a>. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780679604181" title="Special:BookSources/9780679604181"><bdi>9780679604181</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Black+Swan%3A+The+Impact+of+the+Highly+Improbable&rft.place=New+York&rft.pages=101&rft.edition=2nd&rft.pub=Random+House&rft.date=2010&rft.isbn=9780679604181&rft.aulast=Taleb&rft.aufirst=Nassim+Nicholas&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fblackswanimpacth00tale_767&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ASurvivorship+bias" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-15"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-15">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Cicero, De Natura Deor., iii. 37.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-16"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-16">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Diogenes Laertius, Lives of the Eminent Philosophers., VI. 59.</span> </li> <li id="cite_note-17"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-17">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFMumm2010" class="citation book cs1">Mumm, Susan (2010). <i>Women and Philanthropic Cultures, in Women, Gender and Religious Cultures in Britain, 1800-1940, Eds Sue Morgan and Jacqueline deVries </i>. 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.navbox-image img{max-width:none!important}@media print{body.ns-0 .mw-parser-output .navbox{display:none!important}}</style></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Biases273" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1239400231">.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:inline;font-size:88%;font-weight:normal}.mw-parser-output .navbar-collapse{float:left;text-align:left}.mw-parser-output .navbar-boxtext{word-spacing:0}.mw-parser-output .navbar ul{display:inline-block;white-space:nowrap;line-height:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::before{margin-right:-0.125em;content:"[ "}.mw-parser-output .navbar-brackets::after{margin-left:-0.125em;content:" ]"}.mw-parser-output .navbar li{word-spacing:-0.125em}.mw-parser-output .navbar a>span,.mw-parser-output .navbar a>abbr{text-decoration:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-mini abbr{font-variant:small-caps;border-bottom:none;text-decoration:none;cursor:inherit}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-full{font-size:114%;margin:0 7em}.mw-parser-output .navbar-ct-mini{font-size:114%;margin:0 4em}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .navbar li a abbr{color:var(--color-base)!important}}@media print{.mw-parser-output .navbar{display:none!important}}</style><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Biases" title="Template:Biases"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Biases" title="Template talk:Biases"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Biases" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Biases"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Biases273" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Bias" title="Bias">Biases</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><div style="display: inline-block; line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;"><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias" title="Cognitive bias">Cognitive biases</a></div></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Acquiescence_bias" title="Acquiescence bias">Acquiescence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ambiguity_effect" title="Ambiguity effect">Ambiguity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Affinity_bias" title="Affinity bias">Affinity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anchoring_(cognitive_bias)" class="mw-redirect" title="Anchoring (cognitive bias)">Anchoring</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attentional_bias" title="Attentional bias">Attentional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribution_bias" title="Attribution bias">Attribution</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Actor%E2%80%93observer_asymmetry" title="Actor–observer asymmetry">Actor–observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fundamental_attribution_error" title="Fundamental attribution error">Correspondence</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Authority_bias" title="Authority bias">Authority</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Automation_bias" title="Automation bias">Automation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Availability_heuristic" title="Availability heuristic">Availability</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Belief_bias" title="Belief bias">Belief</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_blind_spot" title="Bias blind spot">Blind spot</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Choice-supportive_bias" title="Choice-supportive bias">Choice-supportive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Escalation_of_commitment" title="Escalation of commitment">Commitment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Confirmation_bias" title="Confirmation bias">Confirmation</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Selective_perception" title="Selective perception">Selective perception</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Compassion_fade" title="Compassion fade">Compassion fade</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Congruence_bias" title="Congruence bias">Congruence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cultural_bias" title="Cultural bias">Cultural</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Declinism" title="Declinism">Declinism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Distinction_bias" title="Distinction bias">Distinction</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" title="Dunning–Kruger effect">Dunning–Kruger</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Egocentric_bias" title="Egocentric bias">Egocentric</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Curse_of_knowledge" title="Curse of knowledge">Curse of knowledge</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Emotional_bias" title="Emotional bias">Emotional</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Extrinsic_incentives_bias" title="Extrinsic incentives bias">Extrinsic incentives</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Fading_affect_bias" title="Fading affect bias">Fading affect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Framing_effect_(psychology)" title="Framing effect (psychology)">Framing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frequency_illusion" title="Frequency illusion">Frequency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Frog_pond_effect" title="Frog pond effect">Frog pond effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Halo_effect" title="Halo effect">Halo effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hindsight_bias" title="Hindsight bias">Hindsight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Horn_effect" title="Horn effect">Horn effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Hostile_attribution_bias" title="Hostile attribution bias">Hostile attribution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Impact_bias" title="Impact bias">Impact</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Implicit_stereotype" title="Implicit stereotype">Implicit</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/In-group_favoritism" title="In-group favoritism">In-group</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intentionality_bias" title="Intentionality bias">Intentionality</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Illusion_of_transparency" title="Illusion of transparency">Illusion of transparency</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mean_world_syndrome" title="Mean world syndrome">Mean world syndrome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect" title="Mere-exposure effect">Mere-exposure effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Narrative_bias" title="Narrative bias">Narrative</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Negativity_bias" title="Negativity bias">Negativity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Normalcy_bias" title="Normalcy bias">Normalcy</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omission_bias" title="Omission bias">Omission</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Optimism_bias" title="Optimism bias">Optimism</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Out-group_homogeneity" title="Out-group homogeneity">Out-group homogeneity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Outcome_bias" title="Outcome bias">Outcome</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Overton_window" title="Overton window">Overton window</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Precision_bias" title="Precision bias">Precision</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Present_bias" title="Present bias">Present</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pro-innovation_bias" title="Pro-innovation bias">Pro-innovation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Proximity_bias" title="Proximity bias">Proximity</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Response_bias" title="Response bias">Response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Restraint_bias" title="Restraint bias">Restraint</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-serving_bias" title="Self-serving bias">Self-serving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_comparison_bias" title="Social comparison bias">Social comparison</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social_influence_bias" title="Social influence bias">Social influence bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spotlight_effect" title="Spotlight effect">Spotlight</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Status_quo_bias" title="Status quo bias">Status quo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Attribute_substitution" title="Attribute substitution">Substitution</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Time-saving_bias" title="Time-saving bias">Time-saving</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Trait_ascription_bias" title="Trait ascription bias">Trait ascription</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Turkey_illusion" title="Turkey illusion">Turkey illusion</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Von_Restorff_effect" title="Von Restorff effect">von Restorff effect</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Zero-risk_bias" title="Zero-risk bias">Zero-risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_in_animals" title="Cognitive bias in animals">In animals</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Bias_(statistics)" title="Bias (statistics)">Statistical biases</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Bias_of_an_estimator" title="Bias of an estimator">Estimator</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Forecast_bias" title="Forecast bias">Forecast</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Healthy_user_bias" title="Healthy user bias">Healthy user</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(epidemiology)" title="Information bias (epidemiology)">Information</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Information_bias_(psychology)" title="Information bias (psychology)">Psychological</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Lead_time_bias" title="Lead time bias">Lead time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Length_time_bias" title="Length time bias">Length time</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Non-response</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Observer_bias" title="Observer bias">Observer</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Omitted-variable_bias" title="Omitted-variable bias">Omitted-variable</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Participation_bias" title="Participation bias">Participation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Recall_bias" title="Recall bias">Recall</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sampling_bias" title="Sampling bias">Sampling</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Selection_bias" title="Selection bias">Selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-selection_bias" title="Self-selection bias">Self-selection</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Social-desirability_bias" title="Social-desirability bias">Social desirability</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Spectrum_bias" title="Spectrum bias">Spectrum</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Survivorship</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systematic_error" class="mw-redirect" title="Systematic error">Systematic error</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systemic_bias" title="Systemic bias">Systemic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Verification_bias" title="Verification bias">Verification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Wet_bias" title="Wet bias">Wet</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Other biases</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Academic_bias" title="Academic bias">Academic</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Basking_in_reflected_glory" title="Basking in reflected glory">Basking in reflected glory</a></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/D%C3%A9formation_professionnelle" title="Déformation professionnelle">Déformation professionnelle</a></i></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Funding_bias" title="Funding bias">Funding</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/FUTON_bias" class="mw-redirect" title="FUTON bias">FUTON</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inductive_bias" title="Inductive bias">Inductive</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Infrastructure_bias" title="Infrastructure bias">Infrastructure</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Inherent_bias" title="Inherent bias">Inherent</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Bias_in_education" class="mw-redirect" title="Bias in education">In education</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Liking_gap" title="Liking gap">Liking gap</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias" title="Media bias">Media</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/False_balance" title="False balance">False balance</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/United_States_news_media_and_the_Vietnam_War" title="United States news media and the Vietnam War">Vietnam War</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_South_Asia" title="Media bias in South Asia">South Asia</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_bias_in_the_United_States" title="Media bias in the United States">United States</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_coverage_of_the_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_conflict" class="mw-redirect" title="Media coverage of the Arab–Israeli conflict">Arab–Israeli conflict</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Media_portrayal_of_the_Ukrainian_crisis" class="mw-redirect" title="Media portrayal of the Ukrainian crisis">Ukraine</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Net_bias" title="Net bias">Net</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Political_bias" title="Political bias">Political bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Publication_bias" title="Publication bias">Publication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/System_justification" title="System justification">System justification</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reporting_bias" title="Reporting bias">Reporting</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/White_hat_bias" title="White hat bias">White hat</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Ideological_bias_on_Wikipedia" title="Ideological bias on Wikipedia">Ideological bias on Wikipedia</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Bias reduction</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cognitive_bias_mitigation" title="Cognitive bias mitigation">Cognitive bias mitigation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Debiasing" title="Debiasing">Debiasing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Heuristic_(psychology)" title="Heuristic (psychology)">Heuristics in judgment and decision-making</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow hlist" colspan="2"><div> <ul><li>Lists: <a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">General</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Memory_biases" title="List of cognitive biases">Memory</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236075235"></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Clinical_research_and_experimental_design505" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1239400231"><div class="navbar plainlinks hlist navbar-mini"><ul><li class="nv-view"><a href="/wiki/Template:Medical_research_studies" title="Template:Medical research studies"><abbr title="View this template">v</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-talk"><a href="/wiki/Template_talk:Medical_research_studies" title="Template talk:Medical research studies"><abbr title="Discuss this template">t</abbr></a></li><li class="nv-edit"><a href="/wiki/Special:EditPage/Template:Medical_research_studies" title="Special:EditPage/Template:Medical research studies"><abbr title="Edit this template">e</abbr></a></li></ul></div><div id="Clinical_research_and_experimental_design505" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="/wiki/Clinical_research" title="Clinical research">Clinical research</a> and <a href="/wiki/Design_of_experiments" title="Design of experiments">experimental design</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Overview</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Clinical_trial" title="Clinical trial">Clinical trial</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Protocol_(science)" title="Protocol (science)">Trial protocols</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_clinical_trial" class="mw-redirect" title="Adaptive clinical trial">Adaptive clinical trial</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Academic_clinical_trials" class="mw-redirect" title="Academic clinical trials">Academic clinical trials</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Clinical_study_design" title="Clinical study design">Clinical study design</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Evidence-based_medicine" title="Evidence-based medicine">Evidence-based medicine</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Real_world_evidence" title="Real world evidence">Real world evidence</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Patient_and_public_involvement" title="Patient and public involvement">Patient and public involvement</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Scientific_control" title="Scientific control">Controlled study</a><br />(<a href="/wiki/Hierarchy_of_evidence#USA" title="Hierarchy of evidence">EBM I to II-1</a>)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Randomized_controlled_trial" title="Randomized controlled trial">Randomized controlled trial</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Experiment" title="Experiment">Scientific experiment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Blind_experiment" class="mw-redirect" title="Blind experiment">Blind experiment</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Open-label_trial" title="Open-label trial">Open-label trial</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Adaptive_clinical_trial" class="mw-redirect" title="Adaptive clinical trial">Adaptive clinical trial</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Platform_trial" title="Platform trial">Platform trial</a></li></ul></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Observational_study" title="Observational study">Observational study</a><br />(<a href="/wiki/Hierarchy_of_evidence#USA" title="Hierarchy of evidence">EBM II-2 to II-3</a>)</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Cross-sectional_study" title="Cross-sectional study">Cross-sectional study</a> vs. <a href="/wiki/Longitudinal_study" title="Longitudinal study">Longitudinal study</a>, <a href="/wiki/Ecological_study" title="Ecological study">Ecological study</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Cohort_study" title="Cohort study">Cohort study</a> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Retrospective_cohort_study" title="Retrospective cohort study">Retrospective</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Prospective_cohort_study" title="Prospective cohort study">Prospective</a></li></ul></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Case%E2%80%93control_study" title="Case–control study">Case–control study</a> (<a href="/wiki/Nested_case%E2%80%93control_study" title="Nested case–control study">Nested case–control study</a>)</li> <li><a href="/wiki/Case_series" title="Case series">Case series</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Case_study" title="Case study">Case study</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Case_report" title="Case report">Case report</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Outcome_measure" title="Outcome measure">Measures</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"></div><table class="nowraplinks navbox-subgroup" style="border-spacing:0"><tbody><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Epidemiological_methods#Measures_of_occurrence" class="mw-redirect" title="Epidemiological methods">Occurrence</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><a href="/wiki/Incidence_(epidemiology)" title="Incidence (epidemiology)">Incidence</a>, <a href="/wiki/Cumulative_incidence" class="mw-redirect" title="Cumulative incidence">Cumulative incidence</a>, <a href="/wiki/Prevalence" title="Prevalence">Prevalence</a>, <a href="/wiki/Point_prevalence" class="mw-redirect" title="Point prevalence">Point prevalence</a>, <a href="/wiki/Period_prevalence" class="mw-redirect" title="Period prevalence">Period prevalence</a></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Epidemiological_methods#Measures_of_association" class="mw-redirect" title="Epidemiological methods">Association</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><a href="/wiki/Risk_difference" title="Risk difference">Risk difference</a>, <a href="/wiki/Number_needed_to_treat" title="Number needed to treat">Number needed to treat</a>, <a href="/wiki/Number_needed_to_harm" title="Number needed to harm">Number needed to harm</a>, <a href="/wiki/Risk_ratio" class="mw-redirect" title="Risk ratio">Risk ratio</a>, <a href="/wiki/Relative_risk_reduction" title="Relative risk reduction">Relative risk reduction</a>, <a href="/wiki/Odds_ratio" title="Odds ratio">Odds ratio</a>, <a href="/wiki/Hazard_ratio" title="Hazard ratio">Hazard ratio</a></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Population_impact_measure" title="Population impact measure">Population impact</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><a href="/wiki/Attributable_fraction_among_the_exposed" title="Attributable fraction among the exposed">Attributable fraction among the exposed</a>, <a href="/wiki/Attributable_fraction_for_the_population" title="Attributable fraction for the population">Attributable fraction for the population</a>, <a href="/wiki/Preventable_fraction_among_the_unexposed" title="Preventable fraction among the unexposed">Preventable fraction among the unexposed</a>, <a href="/wiki/Preventable_fraction_for_the_population" title="Preventable fraction for the population">Preventable fraction for the population</a></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Epidemiological_methods#Other_measures" class="mw-redirect" title="Epidemiological methods">Other</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"><a href="/wiki/Clinical_endpoint" title="Clinical endpoint">Clinical endpoint</a>, <a href="/wiki/Virulence" title="Virulence">Virulence</a>, <a href="/wiki/Infectivity" title="Infectivity">Infectivity</a>, <a href="/wiki/Mortality_rate" title="Mortality rate">Mortality rate</a>, <a href="/wiki/Morbidity" class="mw-redirect" title="Morbidity">Morbidity</a>, <a href="/wiki/Case_fatality_rate" title="Case fatality rate">Case fatality rate</a>, <a href="/wiki/Specificity_and_sensitivity" class="mw-redirect" title="Specificity and sensitivity">Specificity and sensitivity</a>, <a href="/wiki/Likelihood_ratios_in_diagnostic_testing" title="Likelihood ratios in diagnostic testing">Likelihood-ratios</a>, <a href="/wiki/Pre-_and_post-test_probability" title="Pre- and post-test probability">Pre- and post-test probability</a></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div></div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Trial/test types</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/In_vitro" title="In vitro">In vitro</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/In_vivo" title="In vivo">In vivo</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Animal_testing" title="Animal testing">Animal testing</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Animal_testing_on_non-human_primates" title="Animal testing on non-human primates">Animal testing on non-human primates</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/First-in-man_study" class="mw-redirect" title="First-in-man study">First-in-man study</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Multicenter_trial" title="Multicenter trial">Multicenter trial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Seeding_trial" title="Seeding trial">Seeding trial</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Vaccine_trial" title="Vaccine trial">Vaccine trial</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%"><a href="/wiki/Analysis_of_clinical_trials" title="Analysis of clinical trials">Analysis of clinical trials</a></th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Risk%E2%80%93benefit_ratio" title="Risk–benefit ratio">Risk–benefit ratio</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Systematic_review" title="Systematic review">Systematic review</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reproducibility" title="Reproducibility">Replication</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Meta-analysis" title="Meta-analysis">Meta-analysis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Intention-to-treat_analysis" title="Intention-to-treat analysis">Intention-to-treat analysis</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Interpretation of results</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Selection_bias" title="Selection bias">Selection bias</a></li> <li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Survivorship bias</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation" title="Correlation does not imply causation">Correlation does not imply causation</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Null_result" title="Null result">Null result</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Sex_as_a_biological_variable" title="Sex as a 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