Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway

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See <a href="https://www.enable-javascript.com">how to enable JavaScript in your browser</a>.</strong></p> </noscript> <div class="section silc-mtop--5 silc-mbottom--6"> <div class="compartment compartment--full"> <h1>Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway</h1> <div class="breadcrumb"> <ol class="breadcrumb__list"> <li class="breadcrumb__list-item"> <a href="/">Home</a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb__list-item"> <a href="/research-impact/publications">Publications</a> </li> <li class="breadcrumb__list-item"> Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway </li> </ol> </div> <a href="/research-impact/publications" class="link--back-to-parent silc-mtop--4 silc-mtop--5-800">Back to All Publications</a> </div> </div> <div class="section main silc-m--0"> <div class="compartment compartment--full"> <div class="silc-grid silc-grid--collapse silc-mbottom--9 silc-grid--reverse-800"> <div class="silc-grid__col silc-grid__col--5-800 silc-grid__col--4-1200 silc-mbottom--7-799"> <aside class="aside"> <div class="aside__body"> <div class="aside__section silc-mbottom--6"> <div class="label">Type:</div> <div> <span>Reports & Working Papers</span> </div> </div> <div class="aside__section"> <div class="label">Author(s):</div> <div class="label--author">School Authors</div> <ul class="list--unstyled">  <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/alicia-zhao" hreflang="en">Alicia Zhao</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/kowan-okeefe" hreflang="en">Kowan O’Keefe</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/matthew-binsted" hreflang="en">Matthew Binsted</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/camryn-dahl" hreflang="en">Camryn Dahl</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/claire-squire" hreflang="en">Claire Squire</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/kiara-ordonez-olazabal" hreflang="en">Kiara Ordonez Olazabal </a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/steven-j-smith" hreflang="en">Steven J. Smith</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/nathan-hultman" hreflang="en">Nathan Hultman</a></li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1"><a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/yiyun-ryna-cui" hreflang="en">Yiyun 'Ryna' Cui</a></li> </ul> <div class="label--author label--author-sub">Other Authors</div> <ul class="list--unstyled">  <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Shannon Kennedy</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Adriana Bryant</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Jordan Snarski</li> <li class="silc-mbottom--1">Dmitry Churlyaev</li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="aside__cta"> <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/CGS_Toward%202035_Forging%20a%20High-Ambition%20US%20Climate%20Pathway_September%202024.pdf" target="_blank" class="link--external link--white">Full Publication</a> </div> </aside> </div> <div class="silc-grid__col silc-grid__col--7-800 silc-grid__col--8-1200"> <div class="page-content"> <figure class="page-content__hero"> <img loading="lazy" src="/sites/default/files/styles/spp_featured_image/public/2024-08/Website%20Headers%20%2843%29.png?itok=5EPp1ubh" width="1100" height="445" alt="picture of solar PV farms" /> </figure> <div class="tagline"><time datetime="2024-09-25T12:00:00Z">September 25, 2024</time> </div> <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/CGS_Toward%202035_Forging%20a%20High-Ambition%20US%20Climate%20Pathway_September%202024.pdf" class="button button--cta"> Report </a> <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/Toward%202035%20Implementation%20Guide_September%202024.pdf" class="button button--cta"> Implementation Guide </a> <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/Listening%20Session%20Appendix%20%281%29.pdf" class="button button--cta"> Listening session appendix </a> <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/Technical%20Appendix_Toward%202035_Forging%20a%20High-Ambition%20U.S.%20Climate%20Pathway%20.pdf" class="button button--cta"> Technical appendix </a>  <section> <p dir="ltr"><span>Achieving net-zero emissions before 2050 requires that the United States takes a comprehensive, all-of-society commitment to climate action. We must set ambitious targets and engage in society-wide approaches to lowering greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to clean energy sources, and the like, embedding those commitments in the U.S. 2035 NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions). </span></p><p dir="ltr"><span>A new report titled “Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway,” by the Center for Global Sustainability shows that with coordinated action from federal and non-federal entities (such as states, cities, and businesses), the United States could cut emissions by 65% from 2005 levels by 2035. Following ambitious pathways through 2035, the United States can meet its climate goals and remain aligned with the Paris Agreement’s global 1.5°C temperature rise target.</span></p><p dir="ltr"><span>Using an all-of-society approach—mobilizing and integrating action by federal, state, city, industry, business, and other sectors—the United States can pursue a high-ambition policy pathway under its third round of NDCs. This approach will provide the ambition for 2035 and set the stage for 2050. </span></p> </section> <div class="silc-accordion" id="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373" data-silc-accordion-animated> <div class="silc-accordion__section"> <button id="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-86b75516-ab0d-4d86-89e4-cd92eb332366-label" class="silc-accordion__label" aria-controls="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-86b75516-ab0d-4d86-89e4-cd92eb332366-content"> Citation </button> <div class="silc-accordion__content" id="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-86b75516-ab0d-4d86-89e4-cd92eb332366-content" aria-labelled-by="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-86b75516-ab0d-4d86-89e4-cd92eb332366-label"> <div class="silc-accordion__content-compartment"> <p><span>Zhao, A., K. O’Keefe, S. Kennedy, M. Binsted, C. Dahl, C. Squire, K. Ordonez Olazabal, A. Bryant, J. Snarski, D. Churlyaev, S. J. Smith, G.Chalef, N. Hultman, and R. Cui (September 2024). “Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway.” Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland. 68 pp.</span></p> </div> </div> </div> <div class="silc-accordion__section"> <button id="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-d6498ecb-20d6-4c8d-9b8e-2f897c27b29b-label" class="silc-accordion__label" aria-controls="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-d6498ecb-20d6-4c8d-9b8e-2f897c27b29b-content"> Key Findings </button> <div class="silc-accordion__content" id="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-d6498ecb-20d6-4c8d-9b8e-2f897c27b29b-content" aria-labelled-by="accordion-6a918930-b619-4e20-a8e3-f8cf95f18373-section-d6498ecb-20d6-4c8d-9b8e-2f897c27b29b-label"> <div class="silc-accordion__content-compartment"> <ul><li><span>In our analysis of plausible, all-of-society actions to deliver a high-ambition 2035 NDC, we find that the United States can achieve a 65% GHG emissions reduction by 2035, down from 2005 levels, under our core scenario.</span></li><li><span>Achieving additional sectoral targets, including 100% clean electricity and 0.2% oil and gas methane intensity, requires additional efforts beyond the specific policies modeled in the core scenario, and can further drive overall emissions reductions to 67% by 2035.</span></li><li><span>The average annual decarbonization rate from 2020 to 2035 increases by nearly 70% from 2.2% per year with current policies to 3.7% in the core scenario. Delivering this ambitious 2035 NDC, which also achieves the current U.S. 2030 NDC, will require specific actions from all of society – federal, state, city, businesses, and other actors – with guidance for implementation that is supported by robust analysis. This approach is critical to setting and achieving an ambitious U.S. national climate target in line with Paris Agreement goals, keeping a 1.5-degree pathway within reach.</span></li><li><span>Methane has a critical role to play in reducing near-term warming. Using the EPA baseline which will govern the NDC process, methane emissions decrease by 35% from 2020 levels by 2035 through an extended methane fee that covers oil and gas, coal, and waste sectors, and incentives for reducing agricultural methane in the core scenario. With the use of an alternative baseline for oil and gas methane and the addition of an internationally agreed-upon standard to achieve a 0.2% methane emissions intensity for oil and gas production and transmission – a measure of how much methane is released into the atmosphere relative to the amount of oil and gas production – and a 50% reduction target for landfill methane, methane emissions can be reduced by 48% by 2035.</span></li><li><span>In the electricity sector, a generation mix that is 91% powered by clean technologies is achieved under the core scenario, with unabated coal power phased out by 2030, solar generation increasing ninefold, and wind generation nearly sixfold between 2020 and 2035. By achieving the 100% clean electricity target, unabated gas power is phased down and replaced by additional solar and wind deployment.</span></li><li><span>In the transport sector, 82% of light-duty vehicle sales and 42% of freight truck sales under our core scenario are electric by 2035. Passenger vehicle miles traveled fall by 65% compared to current policies as a result of switching from single-occupancy vehicles to alternative modes of transportation.</span></li><li><span>In the buildings sector, 38% of water and space heating are electrified by 2035, and overall energy demand decreases by 16% compared to 2020 levels as a result of energy efficiency measures and increased electrification. In the industrial sector, progress is made in carbon capture and storage (CCS), with annual industrial carbon sequestration increasing to 154 MtCO2e by 2035.</span></li><li><span>Land sink carbon sequestration increases by 96 MtCO2 from 2021 levels through enhanced carbon sequestration from forests and climate-smart livestock management.</span></li><li><span>Critical to achieving emissions reductions is the full implementation and expansion of key federal policies, including over $1 trillion in investments under the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the recently finalized EPA rules on vehicle emissions and fossil fuel power plants, underscoring the importance of supporting actions from non-federal actors.</span></li><li><span>In addition to implementing federal policies, non-federal actors also play a key role in driving emissions reductions through expanding and delivering on their own policies. State and local leadership can unlock federal and industry decarbonization with initiatives in accelerating renewable energy targets, methane intensity standards, EV sales mandates, vehicle miles traveled reduction policies, building appliance electrification targets, and more.</span></li><li><span>An initial analysis shows that even without federal support, continued, high-ambition actions from non-federal actors can achieve a 48–60% reduction by 2035. This highlights the impact that non-federal actors can still have despite uncertainties at the federal level.</span></li></ul> </div> </div> </div> </div>  <section> <p dir="ltr"><span>Check out the full report to learn how various U.S. sectors can contribute to a high-ambition scenario for 2035 and beyond.</span></p><p dir="ltr"><span><strong>Meet the authors:</strong></span></p><ul><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/alicia-zhao"><span>Alicia Zhao</span></a><span>, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/kowan-okeefe"><span>Kowan O’Keefe</span></a><span>, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><span>Shannon Kennedy, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland </span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/matthew-binsted"><span>Matthew Binsted</span></a><span>, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland </span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/camryn-dahl"><span>Camryn Dahl</span></a><span>, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/claire-squire"><span>Claire Squire</span></a><span>, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/kiara-ordonez-olazabal"><span>Kiara Ordonez Olazabal,</span></a><span> Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><span>Adriana Bryant, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><span>Jordan Snarski, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><span>Dmitry Churlyaev, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/steven-j-smith"><span>Steven J. Smith</span></a><span>, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research Institute</span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/nathan-hultman"><span>Nate Hultman</span></a><span>, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li><li dir="ltr"><a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/our-community/faculty-staff/yiyun-ryna-cui"><span>Ryna Cui</span></a><span>, Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland</span></li></ul> </section> <ul class="tag-list"> <li class="tag-list__item tag-list__heading"> <strong>Explore:</strong> </li> <li class="tag-list__item"> <a href="https://cgs.umd.edu/" class="tag-list__link">Center for Global Sustainability</a> </li> <li class="tag-list__item"> <a href="https://spp.umd.edu/research-impact/strategic-focus-areas/sustainability" class="tag-list__link">Sustainability</a> </li> </ul> </div> <hr> <section aria-labelledby="related-publications-heading"> <h2 class="h3 silc-mbottom--0 silc-mbottom--3-800" id="related-publications-heading">Related Publications</h2> <a href="/research-impact/publications?related_projects[10330]=10330" class="link--cta silc-mbottom--4 silc-mbottom--6-800">View All Publications</a> <div class="views-element-container"> <div class="feed silc-mbottom--4 silc-mbottom--6-800"> <article class="feed__item feed__item--text" aria-labelledby="article-13746-title"> <div class="h4 feed__item-heading"> <a href="/research-impact/publications/carbon-dioxide-removal-policies-and-practices-us-and-china" id="article-13746-title" class="link--inherit">Carbon Dioxide Removal Policies and Practices in the U.S. and China</a> </div> <div class="feed__item-content"> <p><strong>School Authors:</strong> <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/mengye-zhu">Mengye Zhu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/tiruwork-berhanu-tibebu">Tiruwork Berhanu Tibebu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/sha-yu">Sha Yu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/yiyun-ryna-cui">Yiyun 'Ryna' Cui</a></p> <p><strong>Other Authors:</strong> Yingtong Li, Xueting Peng, Jingli Fan, Xinzhao Cheng, Xian Zhang</p> <time datetime="2024-11-18T12:00:00Z">November 18, 2024</time> </div> </article> <article class="feed__item feed__item--text" aria-labelledby="article-13751-title"> <div class="h4 feed__item-heading"> <a href="/research-impact/publications/enhancing-global-ambition-2035-assessment-high-ambition-country" id="article-13751-title" class="link--inherit">Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways </a> </div> <div class="feed__item-content"> <p><strong>School Authors:</strong> <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/yiyun-ryna-cui">Yiyun 'Ryna' Cui</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/maria-borrero">Maria Borrero</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/christoph-bertram">Christoph Bertram</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/jenna-behrendt">Jenna Behrendt</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/audrey-rader">Audrey Rader</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/mel-george">Mel George</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/jiehong-lou">Jiehong Lou</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/andy-miller">Andy Miller</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/tiruwork-berhanu-tibebu">Tiruwork Berhanu Tibebu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/kowan-okeefe">Kowan O’Keefe</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/xinyue-li">Xinyue Li</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/mengye-zhu">Mengye Zhu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/claire-squire">Claire Squire</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/nathan-hultman">Nathan Hultman</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/xiangwen-fu">Xiangwen Fu</a>, <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/alicia-zhao">Alicia Zhao</a></p> <p><strong>Other Authors:</strong> Dmitry Churlyaev, Jordan Snarski, Bhavika Buddi, Alexandra Kreis</p> <time datetime="2024-11-13T12:00:00Z">November 13, 2024</time> </div> </article> <article class="feed__item feed__item--text" aria-labelledby="article-13730-title"> <div class="h4 feed__item-heading"> <a href="/research-impact/publications/assessing-inequities-electrification-heat-pumps-across-us" id="article-13730-title" class="link--inherit">Assessing inequities in electrification via heat pumps across the U.S.</a> </div> <div class="feed__item-content"> <p><strong>School Authors:</strong> <a href="/our-community/faculty-staff/yueming-lucy-qiu">Yueming 'Lucy' Qiu</a></p> <p><strong>Other Authors:</strong> Morgan R. 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Ou</p> <time datetime="2024-09-01T12:00:00Z">September 1, 2024</time> </div> </article> </div> </div> </section> </div> </div> </div> </div> </main> <footer class="site-footer"> <div class="footer__main"> <div class="compartment"> <div class="footer__logos silc-mbottom--4-800"> <img src="/sites/default/themes/custom/umd_spp/idfive-component-library/build/img/logos/spp-white.svg" alt="University of Maryland School of Public Policy Footer Logo" class="footer__site-logo"> <div class="footer__accreditations silc-display--none-799"> <img src="/sites/default/themes/custom/umd_spp/idfive-component-library/build/img/logos/naspaa.svg" alt="NASPAA"> <img src="/sites/default/themes/custom/umd_spp/idfive-component-library/build/img/logos/apsia.svg" alt="APSIA"> <img src="/sites/default/themes/custom/umd_spp/idfive-component-library/build/img/logos/appam.svg" alt="APPAM"> </div> </div> <div class="footer__contact-info"> <address class="silc-mtop--2-800"> <p><strong>Center for Global 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Toward 2035: Forging a High-Ambition U.S. Climate Pathway | Center for Global Sustainability