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Mysteel节后预测:江苏省热轧板卷价格谨慎看涨-我的钢铁网

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margin-right: auto;" src="//img03.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/04/3ce0c0f828f54cf6b8445cbd71f1ecf5.png" alt="<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>节后预测:江苏热卷价格谨慎看涨" width="975" height="554" /></p> <p>2023年2月至2024年2月,江苏省内南京、无<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-967-----0207-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>锡</a>、张家港、常州热轧板卷价格走势均相似,呈现前高后低、底部震荡的态势。</p> <p>从价格方面来看,以无锡市场为例,截止到2024年2月2日,无锡市场热轧板卷Q235B4.75*1500*C沙钢价格4020元/吨,相较2023年同天的4200下跌80元/吨,2023年价格峰值为3月14日的4540元/吨,价格谷值为10月23日的3760元/吨,前后相差780元/吨。</p> <p>从区域价差来看,全年均值分别为南京市场4067元/吨,无锡市场4043元/吨,张家港市场4022元/吨,常州市场4055元/吨,价差不大,整体呈现区域内库存越高价格越低的态势。</p> <p>分季度来看,一季度江苏市场强势上涨,主要是春节后消费的回暖,地产、制造业、基建等消费对价格起到了支撑作用,同时钢厂利润与接单状况尚可,政策的推动以及海外消费好转带动价格一路上涨;进入二季度热卷价格一路下跌,在经济下行的周期上下游减少库存来控制成本,钢厂订单压力增加导致价格下降、利润减少,同时消费需求的减少对市场的信心影响很大;进入三季度后价格呈现&ldquo;M&rdquo;型走势,主要还是供需矛盾的问题,但供应的减量起到支撑底部的作用,消费与出口决定了价格是否走高;来到四季度,临近年底政策有所缓和、下游开工数增多,同时原料端价格增长速度较缓、钢厂利润有所修复、订单尚可导致价格呈现有所上涨,市场信心加强。</p> <p>2、<span class="15">近三年江苏热轧板卷价格走势情况</span></p> <p><span class="15"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/04/9301346c604e4bf69c6f5a908651e2e2.png" alt="" width="959" height="588" /></span></p> <p>由上图可见,2023年江苏热轧板卷价格整体呈&ldquo;M&rdquo;字形态势运行。具体来看,2021年江苏热轧板卷均价(以Q235B4.75*1500*C沙钢为例)为5358元/吨,2022年全年均价为4482元/吨,2023年全年均价为4056元/吨,较2022年下降426元/吨,跌幅9.5%,较2021年下降1302元/吨,跌幅24%。2023年全年峰值出现在3月14日为4540元/吨,谷值出现在10月23日为3760元/吨,波动幅度在780元/吨,较历年收缩;而2022年波动幅度为1740元/吨,2021年波动幅度为2210元/吨。整体来看,2023年全年价格偏低且重心较历年进一步下移。</p> <p>二、需求方面</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/04/31323a8883124273956046acdb2fdad7.png" alt="" width="967" height="622" /></p> <p>从需求方面来看,江苏热轧板卷市场调研样本企业共计21家,2022年全年成交量共计961737万吨,日均成交4057万吨,月均成交80144万吨;2023年全年成交量共计968301万吨,日均成交4085万吨,月均成交80691万吨;2024年1月成交76793万吨,日均成交3887万吨。整体来看,近两年江苏热轧板卷市场成交量无明显变化,下游需求较稳定,24年1月成交量偏少主要表现在临近春节,虽然价格处于低位,但是下游对现货的补库意愿不高,市场投机性需求较少,市场资源消耗速度减缓,终端下游库存较低,预计节后补库需求有所增加。</p> <p>三、库存方面</p> <p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="//img05.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/04/89bb7f93910e496397e9c61800cd1471.png" alt="" width="959" height="596" /></p> <p>由上图可见,2023年江苏热轧板卷钢厂库存均值为24.7万吨,较2022年钢厂库存均值19.1万吨上升29.3%且涨幅明显;2023年社会库存均值为61.7万吨,较2022年社会库存均值62.9万吨下降1.9%无明显变化。其中2023年社会库存峰值出现在10月13日的87.76万吨,谷值出现在6月2日的34.94万吨,年度差值为52.92万吨。</p> <p>另外,从区域市场社会库存来看,无锡市场热轧板卷库存占全省库存的16.3%,苏州占总库存的72%,而2022年同期无锡占总库存的13.3%,苏州占总库存的77.1%;由此看出无锡市场现货库存的占比呈现逐年增加的态势,同时苏州市场受主导钢厂的影响,现货资源量逐步往周边市场走,增加了周边市场的交易活跃度。</p> <p>四、历年江苏热轧板卷春节前后价格情况</p> <p><img src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2024/02/04/5e7fed9fa7744fa7986644176d8dd8a9.png" alt="" width="966" height="546" /></p> <p>由图表可知,江苏省内重点市场2022年春节后上涨约110元/吨,2023年春节后上涨约10元/吨,张家港市场下跌16元/吨。在市场库存整体不高的情况下,钢厂接单状况尚可叠加政策的支撑,同时年后汽车、家电、风电行业迎来传统的旺季,由此预测年后大概率上涨200元/吨。</p> <p>五、江苏热轧板卷市场情绪调研</p> <p>贸易商A:关于春节后的市场走势,个人认为整体还是维持谨慎乐观的看法。从消费端来看,目前库存累积的速度偏慢,季节性消费回落,非季节性消费继续维持,这对于整个市场信心恢复来说是有利的,大部分贸易商节后提涨的意愿开始增强。另外从钢厂成本的角度来看,据我和跟我司长期合作的钢厂沟通的情况来看,目前钢厂普遍手持订单无压力,2-3月份接单陆续进行,虽说价格稍有抑制但订单尚可。但是目前主要的问题在于钢厂生产成本依然维持在比较高的水准,成本支撑比较强劲,所以个人认为价格下跌的空间比较有限。另外节后普遍资金等各方面会适当宽松,也支持着价格的整体上涨。所以总体我个人还是维持相对偏乐观的看法,可能阶段性会存在小幅的震荡调整。</p> <p>贸易商B:个人对节后行情有所期待,从当前的市场来看,工业材的需求仍有韧性,叠加钢厂检修减产增多,供应处于相对低位,整体市场仍处于供需两弱格局。考虑到钢厂多目前处于亏损状态,我们判断节日期间板卷的累库不及常年水平,随着年前期现市场的调整结束、股市等金融市场企稳、终端及贸易商备货进程继续以及年后需求的正常释放,如果再辅以宏观政策的支持助力。我们对年后的行情应有所期待,幅度看200元/吨左右。</p> <p>贸易商C:个人认为年前不具备深度负反馈的前提下,加上成本高企以及钢厂亏损,价格向下驱动不足。向上由于内需在淡季如果没有持续的强心针政策的加持下,难以形成趋势性的行情,仍以高位震荡为主旋律。年后,国外美联储降息政策不明朗,行情仍会反复;国内处于淡季往旺季转移的过程,虽然政策加持,但当旺季来临,需求可能没有太大的亮点,因此年后如有冲高,现货贸易商仍以降库为主,不应追高。</p> <p>贸易商D:节前整体来看价格处于高位震荡的趋势在运行,江苏地区贸易商整体库存量压力不大,原料端的强势运行对成材的价格具有较强的支撑。目前市场需求已经开始逐渐减弱,库存呈现小幅累库状态。钢厂供应端的产量也有小幅增加。节后的库存若处于健康的状态,那么高成本和高需求将会导致价格有一个偏强的小幅上涨,若库存累积过高,贸易商心态以出货为主,价格可能会有一个偏弱的震荡过程,但高成本的支撑也不会使价格过低。宏观的政策还是利好的。综合来看,预计节后的市场价格还是会以中间位置或高位震荡为主。</p> <p>六、节后关注点及市场预测</p> <p>供应方面:春节假期期间,江苏钢厂停工时间较短甚至不停工,对市场的供给提供了保障。节后各大钢厂订单量尚可,排到3月份。当前江苏市场资源到货正常,仍以本地的沙钢、恒润为主,集中在无锡和苏州;其次是大东海和通钢,外来资源相对稳定。</p> <p>需求方面:春节来临,下游终端陆续放假,就需求而言节后汽车、家电、机械行业将迎来传统的消费旺季,热卷的需求会迎来回暖,加上政策的支撑以及库存不高的情况应当对节后有所期待。</p> <p>库存方面:钢厂的订单压力不大,年后的产量将会维持在相对高位,加上临近春节市场消费明显下降,所以节后库存将呈现逐步累库的过程。</p> <p>综合来看,节后江苏热轧板卷市场谨慎看涨。</p> <p><span class="15">&nbsp;</span></p> <!--指标说明附件--> <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑:赵逸飞 021-26094376 </br> 资讯监督:王晶晶 021-26093683 </br> 资讯投诉:陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p 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