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mobility’s future with quantum computing</div></h1></div><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-10 mck-u-animation-blur-in-800 ArticleDefault_mck-c-article-default__description__sjoe9"><div><time datetime="2023-09-13T00:00:00Z">September 13, 2023</time> | Article</div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mck-o-container"><div class="mck-o-container--wrapped mck-o-container--mobile-spacing mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><section data-layer-region="article-body-header" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400 byline-share-container"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-7 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-8 mdc-u-ts-10"></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-animation-blur-in-400"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-5"><div class="mck-u-links-inline">Quantum computing is advancing—and it could put the mobility revolution into higher gear.</div></div></div></section><main data-layer-region="article-body" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xxl"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-1 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><div class="mdc-o-content-body mck-u-dropcap"> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__iFmyt mck-o-xs-right-span"><div data-layer-region="downloads-right-rail"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f"></h3><div><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="#/download/%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fmckinsey%2Findustries%2Fautomotive%20and%20assembly%2Four%20insights%2Fgearing%20up%20for%20mobilitys%20future%20with%20quantum%20computing%2Fgearing-up-for-mobilitys-future-with-quantum-computing-vf.pdf%3FshouldIndex%3Dfalse" class="DownloadsSidebar_mck-c-downloads-sidebar__download-link__fPqFQ mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f" target="_self" data-layer-event-prefix="Download Link" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-report-type="" data-layer-file-name="gearing-up-for-mobilitys-future-with-quantum-computing-vf" data-layer-report-name="gearing-up-for-mobilitys-future-with-quantum-computing-vf>"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-download-icon"></span><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f"> (8 pages)</span></a></div></div></div></div> <p><strong>The mobility sector</strong>—always known for innovation—is now evolving more rapidly than ever. Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are surging, with <a href="/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/can-the-automotive-industry-scale-fast-enough">demand expected to grow sixfold</a> from 2021 through 2030.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="005f6814-d2e9-4df4-9e6c-cef871453e6f"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">1</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="005f6814-d2e9-4df4-9e6c-cef871453e6f" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Russell Hensley, Kevin Laczkowski, Timo Möller, and Dennis Schwedhelm, “<a href="/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/can-the-automotive-industry-scale-fast-enough">Can the automotive industry scale fast enough?</a>” <em>McKinsey Quarterly</em>, May 12, 2022.</span></span></span></a></span> New solutions, including leading-edge batteries and autonomous cars, are advancing in development and attracting interest from investors, who have funneled almost $280 billion into automotive hardware and software solutions since 2010.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="1032759a-b302-4626-8993-0fef8eac27cd"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">2</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="1032759a-b302-4626-8993-0fef8eac27cd" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">“<a href="/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/can-the-automotive-industry-scale-fast-enough">Can the automotive industry scale fast enough?</a>” <em>McKinsey Quarterly</em>, May 12, 2022.</span></span></span></a></span> Meanwhile, consumers who once gravitated to private cars are increasingly exploring greener options, including e-kickscooters and ridesharing services.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>About the authors</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p>This article is a collaborative effort by Scarlett Gao, <a href="/our-people/timo-moller">Timo Möller</a>, <a href="/our-people/niko-mohr">Niko Mohr</a>, Alexia Pastré, and Felix Ziegler, representing views from McKinsey’s Automotive & Assembly Practice.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>The shifts in technology and consumer preferences will eventually result in a mobility ecosystem that is fully connected, intelligent, and environmentally friendly. Vehicles could have software that allows them to scan their surroundings to find parking spaces or identify hazards, perhaps paving the way to full autonomy. Passengers could have access to in-car gaming and video streaming. If a route is blocked, vehicles could propose alternatives. For more complicated trips, consumers may use applications to transfer seamlessly between subways, shared vehicles, and other transportation options.</p> <p>These changes—as well as many other connected-car features and mobility applications—depend on the rapid and smooth exchange of vast amounts of data between in-vehicle computers and those in other locations. Similarly, many mobility applications, such as those for mapping, depend on the exchange of information between tech companies and OEMs. Many of these businesses have only recently begun to work together, and the partners are still experimenting with the best ways to share and exchange data.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_2734c4f" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>Principles of quantum computing</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p><strong>Any physical object,</strong> alive or inanimate, is composed of atoms and subatomic particles that interact in different ways governed by the principles of quantum mechanics. Some particles are in a pure state—they remain fixed and unchanged. Others are in a quantum state—a concept that can be difficult to understand because it involves having a particle occupy multiple states simultaneously. For instance, an electron in a pure state spins up or down; in a quantum state, also referred to as superposition, it spins up and down simultaneously. Another quantum principle states that particles can be in a state of entanglement in which changes in one directly affect the other. The principles of superposition and entanglement are fundamental to quantum computing.</p> <p>Quantum bits, or qubits, are the smallest units of data that a quantum computer can process and store. In a pure state, qubits have a value of 1 or 0, similar to the bits used in computing today. In superposition, they can be both of these values simultaneously, and that enables parallel computations on a massive scale. While classical computers must conduct a new calculation any time a variable changes, quantum computers can explore a problem with many possible variables simultaneously.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p>Existing computers, although sufficient for many applications, can’t fully support all of the changes required to create a connected and intelligent-mobility ecosystem. Quantum computing (QC) could potentially provide faster and better solutions by leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics—the rules that govern how atoms and subatomic particles act and interact. (See sidebar, “Principles of quantum computing,” for more information.) Over the short term, QC may be most applicable to solving complex problems involving small datasets; as its performance improves, QC will be applied to extremely large datasets.</p>  <p>Although researchers have estimated that <a href="/industries/industrials-and-electronics/our-insights/shaping-the-long-race-in-quantum-communication-and-quantum-sensing">widespread commercial application of QC</a> is about five to ten years away, some mobility companies are already piloting applications and building their capabilities in this area. Additional opportunities could soon emerge. For instance, OEMs could use QC to simulate how changing the material composition of a vehicle component would affect performance. QC’s benefits might be particularly helpful in large countries with multiple roads and many route alternatives. Within autonomous driving, QC may improve the performance of sensors and vehicle systems, allowing them to make instant decisions when confronted with an obstacle in the road, or help OEMs to develop better encryption algorithms to prevent hackers from taking over vehicles.</p> <p>If mobility players continue to scale their initiatives, QC could create significant value in areas ranging from vehicle design to last-mile delivery to long-distance shipping. Our analysis shows that automotive, along with chemical, financial services, and life sciences, is likely to experience the earliest economic impact from QC. In the automotive industry alone, for instance, the economic value of QC could range from <a href="/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/quantum-technology-sees-record-investments-progress-on-talent-gap">$29 billion to $63 billion in value by 2035</a>.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="ba8c40c0-a49d-4320-a0ab-0c91c51491f9"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">3</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="ba8c40c0-a49d-4320-a0ab-0c91c51491f9" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Michael Bogobowicz, Scarlett Gao, Mateusz Masiowski, Niko Mohr, Henning Soller, Rodney Zemmel, and Matija Zesko, “<a href="/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/quantum-technology-sees-record-investments-progress-on-talent-gap">Quantum technology sees record investments, progress on talent gap</a>,” April 24, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span></p> <h2>The benefits of quantum computing</h2> <p>The algorithms used in high-performance classical computing (HPC)—today’s standard—are sufficient for many computations, including those used to evaluate the results of clinical trials, analyze financial trends, and predict weather patterns. QC could handle the same computations much more rapidly, however, and with lower power requirements. QC might also solve some complex problems across industries that are now beyond the reach of HPC.</p> <p>Within the mobility sector, some companies have been hesitant to pursue QC applications because HPC costs less and is equally likely to solve most problems, albeit more slowly. But this mindset might be shortsighted, since QC algorithms are constantly improving and the associated costs may decrease. Across industries, QC is most likely to gain traction for the three following activities because it offers the greatest time and cost advantages over HPC, as well as better accuracy in some instances (Exhibit 1):</p> <ul> <li><em>Optimization</em>. Optimization algorithms consider multiple parameters in various combinations to determine how they affect final outcomes, such as the likelihood that using new materials during manufacturing will reduce waste. In some cases, companies may use classic algorithms to divide a large problem into more manageable chunks and then apply QC to those smaller sections to expedite calculations. Over the short term, QC optimization applications are most likely to generate benefits. For instance, autonomous cars may be on the road with human drivers who don’t always make rational decisions. QC might help autonomous vehicles correctly predict how drivers might react in certain circumstances by analyzing massive quantities of driving data.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="7d7c276b-66ea-4436-bb08-d976041cc7ce"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">4</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="7d7c276b-66ea-4436-bb08-d976041cc7ce" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Weiping Fu et al., “Quantum decision making in automatic driving,” <em>Scientific Reports</em>, June 30, 2022.</span></span></span></a></span></li> <li><em>Simulation.</em> QC can enable faster and more precise simulations, such as those that assess the internal energy structure of different molecules and their interactions. Within mobility, simulations could help to optimize battery development, facilitate the creation of heat-resistant materials, and aid the development of alternative aerospace fuels. Such use cases are likely to gain traction over the medium term.</li> <li><em>Hybrid machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI)</em>.<strong></strong>QC algorithms can reduce the training time and power requirements for ML/AI models, especially in the most computationally intensive layers, which will help companies reach decisions more quickly. For instance, they might be able to shift flight schedules and routes more rapidly based on data from atmospheric models. Another benefit is that QC might decrease the amount of training data required. It will likely take five to ten years for QC to generate substantial outcomes within AI and ML.</li> </ul> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 1</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/gearing%20up%20for%20mobilitys%20future%20with%20quantum%20computing/svgz_quantum-computing-timeline_ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Quantum computing applications could follow different timelines depending on the type of activity involved." src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/gearing%20up%20for%20mobilitys%20future%20with%20quantum%20computing/svgz_quantum-computing-timeline_ex1.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>In the near term, companies may generate the most impact by relying on a hybrid operating model in which they apply HPC to some problems and reserve QC for select cases where it offers the greatest benefits. Consider chemical interactions. Since quantum mechanics govern how atoms and subatomic particles interact, QC could model this intrinsically quantum process with much less memory and processing power than that required by HPC.</p> <h2>Current and future QC mobility applications</h2> <p>QC can promote improvement along the entire mobility value chain (Exhibit 2). Within manufacturing, for instance, OEMs can use QC to optimize the creation of digital twins, which are virtual representations of factories that can help companies optimize robot paths within warehouses, schedule jobs, place equipment, enhance quality control, or improve energy usage. A leading global automotive supplier has entered a partnership with a QC company to build digital twins that will provide greater insight into equipment performance and production processes while potentially reducing waste and energy use.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-inline-module-container mck-o-md-center"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-lg mdc-u-grid-col-sm-1 mdc-u-grid--align-start mdc-u-mb-3 GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__sGwKL"><div data-component="mdc-c-content-block" class="mdc-c-content-block___7p6Lu_2734c4f mdc-u-grid-gutter-xs GenericItem_mck-c-generic-item__content__gq1m0"><div class="mck-c-eyebrow mdc-u-ts-10"><span> 2</span></div></div></div><div class="mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom"><picture data-component="mdc-c-picture" class="Exhibit_mck-c-exhibit__image__pyIDm"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcSet="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/gearing%20up%20for%20mobilitys%20future%20with%20quantum%20computing/svgz_quantum-computing-timeline_ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center"/><img alt="Potential quantum use cases by capability and applicable industries" src="/~/media/mckinsey/industries/automotive%20and%20assembly/our%20insights/gearing%20up%20for%20mobilitys%20future%20with%20quantum%20computing/svgz_quantum-computing-timeline_ex2.svgz?cq=50&cpy=Center" loading="lazy"/></picture></div><div class="mck-u-sr-only"></div></div> <p>Some of the most important QC use cases involve engineering R&D and product design. Consider battery technology: almost all EV batteries now contain lithium, often in combination with other chemicals, and manufacturers are investigating other options. QC could improve the algorithms for analyzing molecular structure and interactions, allowing manufacturers to create lighter, safer, and more cost-effective batteries.</p> <p>OEMs have already formed partnerships with QC companies to accelerate battery development. Some companies are starting to create QC algorithms that use density functional theory to analyze the electronic structures of different materials much more rapidly and accurately than is possible with HPC. Beyond battery development, OEMs could use QC to gain more detailed and rapid insights about chemical properties and reactions during the development of green fuels or heat-resistant materials.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Want to learn more about the <a href="/features/mckinsey-center-for-future-mobility/overview">McKinsey Center for Future Mobility</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/features/mckinsey-center-for-future-mobility/overview" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Visit our page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>QC could also transform multiple areas of vehicle, aircraft, and satellite design, allowing OEMs to optimize product weight, sensor positioning, and resistance to physical stress. It could also improve computational fluid dynamics testing. These efforts could potentially costly build-test-improve cycles for metal-forming processes because QC can provide insights more rapidly than HPC. Again, multiple OEMs are off to an early start by working with QC companies on design issues to leverage quantum processors and tailored simulation algorithms to predict how any process modifications could alter the composition of vehicle parts and determine whether the changes would make the components noncompliant with regulations. In addition to expediting development cycles and increasing safety, the virtual modeling could help OEMs produce lighter, more fuel-efficient vehicles.</p> <h3>Applications in the broader mobility ecosystem</h3> <p>QC could potentially benefit all players in the mobility ecosystem, including fleet providers and the start-ups that are trying to disrupt transportation.</p> <p><strong><em>Fleet optimization</em>.</strong> QC algorithms can optimize fleet management, resulting in more efficient operations, reduced costs, and <a href="/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/fleet-decarbonization-how-an-expanding-value-chain-could-reshape-freight">a better environmental footprint</a>. Some trucking fleets now use QC to analyze the effect of multiple variables, including road construction, when planning routes and dispatching drivers. Within maritime, a leading global oil and gas company is working on a QC initiative that involves modeling the comparative advantages of different shipping routes to increase the rate of just-in-time energy delivery. A global OEM has signed a deal to use NASA’s quantum computer in its autonomous-car research and hopes to plot the most efficient routes for diesel commercial truck fleets within regions that contain multiple cities.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="lightest-grey" data-module-category="" data-module-gradient-position="bottom-right" class="mck-c-inline-module-container SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__bgimg-wrapper__Qj4Dt mck-o-sm-left-span SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper__Dpjw2 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__sidebar-wrapper--istablet__IQ6ii mck-u-screen-only mck-c-module-wrapper" data-layer-region="sidebar"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__epoAm mck-o-md-center"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons-wrapper__9gB_c"><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__share-icons___eQy6"><div data-component="mdc-c-dropdown-menu" class="mdc-c-drop-down"><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium mdc-c-drop-down__rootmenu___yJzvz_2734c4f" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="menu"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--default___f-hQM_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-md___yi5fA_2734c4f mck-share2-icon"></span></button><div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="light" data-module-background="white" data-module-category="" class=""></div></div><button data-component="mdc-c-button" aria-label="Expandable Sidebar" type="button" id="button_id" class="mdc-c-button___U4iY2_2734c4f mdc-c-button--ghost mdc-c-button--size-medium SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__toggle-btn__EL8iE" aria-expanded="false" data-layer-event-prefix="UI Item" data-layer-action="click" data-layer-category="sidebar" data-layer-subcategory="open" data-layer-text="open sidebar"><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--radial___y3csX_2734c4f mdc-c-icon--size-xxl___cL3ZT_2734c4f mck-plus-no-circle-icon"></span></button></div></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-outer__UdWCq"><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__eyebrow__5GSEq"></div><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content__raEwe"><h2 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-3 SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-heading__NJekY"><div>About the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility</div></h2><div class="SideBar_mck-c-sidebar__content-description__4p9iI mdc-u-ts-7"><div class="mdc-o-content-body"><p><strong>These insights were developed</strong> by the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility (MCFM). Since 2011, MCFM has worked with stakeholders across the mobility ecosystem by providing independent and integrated evidence about possible future-mobility scenarios. With our unique, bottom-up modeling approach, our insights enable an end-to-end analytics journey through the future of mobility—from consumer needs to a modal mix across urban and rural areas, sales, value pools, and life cycle sustainability. <a target="_blank" href="mailto:mmip@mckinsey.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">Contact us</a> if you are interested in getting full access to our market insights via the McKinsey Mobility Insights Portal.</p></div></div></div></div></div></div> <p><strong><em>Traffic-flow simulation</em>.</strong> Road congestion is an increasing problem in many countries, and Volkswagen, in combination with D-Wave Systems, has attempted to develop traffic flow optimization algorithms. In one project, it analyzed data from public taxis in Beijing to determine the best routes between the city center and the airport. Volkswagen then created a mobile app that can provide the best route to any destination. In Lisbon, Volkswagen equipped public buses with a system that uses QC to calculate the fastest route in near real time.</p> <p><strong><em>Fuel and cargo loading</em>.</strong> Many aviation companies have set ambitious sustainability targets because air traffic is responsible for a high percentage of global emissions. They are also trying to reduce supply chain bottlenecks, which have become more common since the pandemic, by streamlining processes and reducing transit time. QC can help in both areas. For instance, a leading global aerospace company is working on QC algorithms that increase loading efficiency and optimize cargo distribution on flights—improvements that could reduce both time and costs. These algorithms consider multiple variables that affect payload capacity, including the aircraft’s center of gravity and fuselage shear limits.</p> <p><strong><em>Air-traffic management</em>. </strong>Advanced air mobility involves the flight of next-generation concepts, including passenger drones. One organization, the Quantum Transformation Project, is already attempting to optimize flight routes and scheduling for these aircraft by using QC to assess numerous factors in combination, including constantly changing weather conditions.</p> <p><strong><em>Vehicle and infrastructure maintenance</em>. </strong>By processing vast amounts of data from sensors and monitoring systems, quantum algorithms can detect anomalies and predict maintenance requirements before critical failures occur. This proactive approach can improve safety, reduce downtime, and enhance overall operational efficiency.</p> <h2>Making the move to quantum computing</h2> <p>Compared with other innovative technologies, investment in QC is still relatively low. It has steadily grown in recent years, however, primarily because various governments have directed large amounts of public funding to it. The QC <a href="/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech-2023">equity investment in 2022 was about $2 billion</a>, compared with $5 billion for generative AI and $16 billion for immersive-reality technologies.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="aad072ca-ed7b-43d6-b2d2-8b1becb8bd1e"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">5</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="aad072ca-ed7b-43d6-b2d2-8b1becb8bd1e" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline"><em>McKinsey Tech Trends Outlook 2023</em>, July 20, 2023.</span></span></span></a></span> Companies clearly recognize QC’s potential value, however, and are considering possible QC applications. As they explore the potential cost and speed advantages, they should consider the following factors:</p> <ul> <li><em>Algorithm complexity</em>. QC may have an intrinsic speed advantage because its parallel-processing capabilities reduce the number of unique calculations required.<span class="FootNote_footnote-holder__tjRqy"><a aria-label="footnote" href="javascript:void(0);" class="FootNote_footnote-wrapper__AIRwL undefined FootNote_inactive__VZfCp" aria-describedby="20256c60-5147-46a5-a2b5-bbd1c0bff816"><sup class="FootNote_footnotesup__e73z_">6</sup><span class="FootNote_notch-wrapper__b_5NS"><span class="FootNote_notch__omKtY"></span></span><span class="FootNote_tooltip__QtrbA mdc-u-mt-2"><span class="FootNote_footnote-content__r2OVl"><span id="20256c60-5147-46a5-a2b5-bbd1c0bff816" aria-hidden="true" data-module-theme="light" class="FootNote_footnote-text__VjKgO mck-u-links-inline">Researchers have tailored many HPC solutions to suit particular use cases. With QC, which is still in its relatively early stages, tailored algorithms may not be available, which could negate any potential speed advantage.</span></span></span></a></span> For instance, QC can analyze information from unstructured databases more quickly than HPC.</li> <li><em>Execution time</em>. Total execution time is highly dependent on hardware and architectures. Although QC algorithms may find answers using fewer calculations, their execution time might not be faster than that of HPC because of differences in gate speed, read-in/read-out time, and other factors. </li> <li><em>Energy requirements</em>.<strong> </strong>HPC can consume up to 25 megawatts of power, which may increase costs and interfere with an organization’s sustainability goals. Energy consumption for QC may be negligible compared with this, as most of it is related to cooling systems.</li> <li><em>Capital and operational expenditures</em>. QC may be more expensive than HPC over the short term because of the infrastructure and materials required. For instance, many of essential QC components are not yet produced on a large scale, increasing costs. QC could become more cost-competitive as the sector matures and more downstream suppliers become available.</li> </ul> <p>For those companies that want to accelerate their QC efforts, three activities may help. First, technology monitoring and capability building are essential. Companies could build dedicated teams to track the latest QC developments, including those related to hardware, hybrid integration, coding platforms, and postquantum cryptography protocols. In addition to accelerating progress, the presence of a QC-focused group may signal this technology’s importance to the entire organization.</p> <div data-component="mdc-c-module-wrapper" data-module-theme="default" data-module-background="transparent" data-module-category="" class="mck-c-disruptor1up mck-o-md-center mck-u-inline-module-border-top mck-u-inline-module-border-bottom mck-u-screen-only" data-layer-region="disruptor-1up"><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-md mdc-u-grid-col-lg-12 mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 "><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-span-12"><header data-component="mdc-c-header" class="mdc-c-header"><div class="mdc-c-header__block___i1Lg-_2734c4f"><h3 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f"><div>Would you like to learn more about <a href="/featured-insights/the-rise-of-quantum-computing">The Rise of Quantum Computing</a>?</div></h3></div></header><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" class="mdc-c-link-container___xefGu_2734c4f mdc-c-link-container--display-column___X0HDD_2734c4f mck-c-disruptor1up__content Disruptor1Up_mck-c-disruptor1up__content--links__VV4lE mdc-u-grid-gutter-md"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/featured-insights/the-rise-of-quantum-computing" class="mdc-c-link-cta___NBQVi_2734c4f"><span class="mdc-c-link__label___Pfqtd_2734c4f">Visit our page</span><span data-component="mdc-c-icon" class="mdc-c-icon___oi7ef_2734c4f mck-link-arrow-right-icon"></span></a></div></div></div></div> <p>The next activity is both practical and basic: use case identification. Over the next three to five years, companies may focus their attention on projects involving noisy intermediate-scale quantum. The computers involved will have between 50 and a few hundred qubits, and their performance may surpass HPC in many instances, but the “noise” in the quantum gates will limit the number of sequential calculations that can be performed before errors arise. Over the longer term, companies may benefit from fault-tolerant QC, which could emerge before the end of the decade. This type of computing minimizes the errors that can occur when qubits interact.</p> <p>The last key activity is one familiar to many OEMs: collaborating at scale with QC companies and academic institutions. Active participation in such partnerships may help ensure that some QC research focuses on areas that are critical to mobility, and it may help increase the talent pipeline for those companies that want to bring QC skills in-house.</p> <hr/> <p>As the mobility sector undergoes changes not seen for decades, QC could be essential to achieving an intelligent, connected ecosystem that relies on the swift exchange and processing of massive amounts of data. While the journey to capture QC’s full potential may seem long and protracted, the technology could potentially shave years off the development timelines for autonomous vehicles and other innovations that might otherwise never materialize or else take decades to achieve.</p></div><div class="container-placeholder"></div></div></div><div class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-gutter-xl"><section role="contentinfo" data-layer-region="article-about-authors" class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 AboutAuthor_mck-c-about-author__nRJzu"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-3 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-11"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center"></h5><div data-component="mdc-c-description" class="mdc-c-description___SrnQP_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-8 mck-u-links-inline mck-u-links-inline--secondary mdc-u-mt-5"><div><p><strong>Scarlett Gao</strong> is an associate in McKinsey’s London office; <strong><a href="/our-people/timo-moller">Timo Möller</a> </strong>is a partner in the Cologne office; <strong><a href="/our-people/niko-mohr">Niko Mohr</a> </strong>is a partner in the Düsseldorf office; <strong>Alexia Pastré</strong> is an alumna of the Nairobi office; and<strong> Felix Ziegler</strong> is an associate in the New York office.</p> <hr /> <p>This article was edited by Eileen Hannigan, a senior editor in the Waltham, Massachusetts, office.</p></div></div></div></section><section class="mdc-u-grid mdc-u-grid-col-md-12 mck-u-screen-only"><div class="mdc-u-grid-col-md-start-2 mdc-u-grid-col-md-end-12 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-start-5 mdc-u-grid-col-lg-end-9"><h5 data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--title___5qyOB_2734c4f mdc-c-heading--border___K8dj3_2734c4f mdc-u-align-center">Explore a career with us</h5><div data-component="mdc-c-link-container" 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data-component="mdc-c-heading" class="mdc-c-heading___0fM1W_2734c4f mdc-u-ts-6"><a data-component="mdc-c-link" href="/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech-2023" class="mdc-c-link-heading___Zggl8_2734c4f mdc-c-link___lBbY1_2734c4f"><div>McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2023</div></a></h6></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></main></div><script id="__NEXT_DATA__" type="application/json">{"props":{"pageProps":{"locale":"en","dictionary":{},"sitecoreContext":{"route":{"name":"Gearing up for mobilitys future with quantum computing","displayName":"Gearing up for mobilitys future with quantum computing","fields":null,"databaseName":"web","deviceId":"fe5d7fdf-89c0-4d99-9aa3-b5fbd009c9f3","itemId":"ffd55d7c-abbb-4e21-afa1-26162b514782","itemLanguage":"en","itemVersion":2,"layoutId":"ae753eb4-a035-40b4-83bf-4b4438df6742","templateId":"683910db-02ba-40ba-92e7-726c880160a9","templateName":"ArticleJSS","placeholders":{"jss-main":[{"uid":"232bb7e9-289f-492d-a916-2b6185e44a84","componentName":"ArticleTemplate","dataSource":"","fields":{"data":{"articleTemplate":{"title":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Gearing up for mobility\u0026rsquo;s future with quantum computing"}},"sEOTitle":{"value":"The benefits of quantum computing in mobility"},"description":{"jsonValue":{"value":"Quantum computing is advancing\u0026mdash;and it could put the mobility revolution into higher gear."}},"sEODescription":{"value":"The mobility sector— known for innovation—is evolving more rapidly than ever. Quantum computing could put the mobility revolution into higher gear."},"displayDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-09-13T00:00:00Z"}},"body":{"value":"[[audio 1]]\n[[DownloadsSidebar]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe mobility sector\u003c/strong\u003e\u0026mdash;always known for innovation\u0026mdash;is now evolving more rapidly than ever. Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are surging, with \u003ca href=\"/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/can-the-automotive-industry-scale-fast-enough\"\u003edemand expected to grow sixfold\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;from 2021 through 2030.[[footnote 1]] New solutions, including leading-edge batteries and autonomous cars, are advancing in development and attracting interest from investors, who have funneled almost $280 billion into automotive hardware and software solutions since 2010.[[footnote 2]] Meanwhile, consumers who once gravitated to private cars are increasingly exploring greener options, including e-kickscooters and ridesharing services.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[sidebar 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe shifts in technology and consumer preferences will eventually result in a mobility ecosystem that is fully connected, intelligent, and environmentally friendly. Vehicles could have software that allows them to scan their surroundings to find parking spaces or identify hazards, perhaps paving the way to full autonomy. Passengers could have access to in-car gaming and video streaming. If a route is blocked, vehicles could propose alternatives. For more complicated trips, consumers may use applications to transfer seamlessly between subways, shared vehicles, and other transportation options.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThese changes\u0026mdash;as well as many other connected-car features and mobility applications\u0026mdash;depend on the rapid and smooth exchange of vast amounts of data between in-vehicle computers and those in other locations. Similarly, many mobility applications, such as those for mapping, depend on the exchange of information between tech companies and OEMs. Many of these businesses have only recently begun to work together, and the partners are still experimenting with the best ways to share and exchange data.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[sidebar 2]]\n\u003cp\u003eExisting computers, although sufficient for many applications, can\u0026rsquo;t fully support all of the changes required to create a connected and intelligent-mobility ecosystem. Quantum computing (QC) could potentially provide faster and better solutions by leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics\u0026mdash;the rules that govern how atoms and subatomic particles act and interact. (See sidebar, \u0026ldquo;Principles of quantum computing,\u0026rdquo; for more information.) Over the short term, QC may be most applicable to solving complex problems involving small datasets; as its performance improves, QC will be applied to extremely large datasets.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[MostPopularArticles 5]]\n\u003cp\u003eAlthough researchers have estimated that \u003ca href=\"/industries/industrials-and-electronics/our-insights/shaping-the-long-race-in-quantum-communication-and-quantum-sensing\"\u003ewidespread commercial application of QC\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;is about five to ten years away, some mobility companies are already piloting applications and building their capabilities in this area. Additional opportunities could soon emerge. For instance, OEMs could use QC to simulate how changing the material composition of a vehicle component would affect performance. QC\u0026rsquo;s benefits might be particularly helpful in large countries with multiple roads and many route alternatives. Within autonomous driving, QC may improve the performance of sensors and vehicle systems, allowing them to make instant decisions when confronted with an obstacle in the road, or help OEMs to develop better encryption algorithms to prevent hackers from taking over vehicles.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf mobility players continue to scale their initiatives, QC could create significant value in areas ranging from vehicle design to last-mile delivery to long-distance shipping. Our analysis shows that automotive, along with chemical, financial services, and life sciences, is likely to experience the earliest economic impact from QC. In the automotive industry alone, for instance, the economic value of QC could range from \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/quantum-technology-sees-record-investments-progress-on-talent-gap\"\u003e$29 billion to $63 billion in value by 2035\u003c/a\u003e.[[footnote 3]]\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eThe benefits of quantum computing\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe algorithms used in high-performance classical computing (HPC)\u0026mdash;today\u0026rsquo;s standard\u0026mdash;are sufficient for many computations, including those used to evaluate the results of clinical trials, analyze financial trends, and predict weather patterns. QC could handle the same computations much more rapidly, however, and with lower power requirements. QC might also solve some complex problems across industries that are now beyond the reach of HPC.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWithin the mobility sector, some companies have been hesitant to pursue QC applications because HPC costs less and is equally likely to solve most problems, albeit more slowly. But this mindset might be shortsighted, since QC algorithms are constantly improving and the associated costs may decrease. Across industries, QC is most likely to gain traction for the three following activities because it offers the greatest time and cost advantages over HPC, as well as better accuracy in some instances (Exhibit 1):\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eOptimization\u003c/em\u003e.\u0026nbsp;Optimization algorithms consider multiple parameters in various combinations to determine how they affect final outcomes, such as the likelihood that using new materials during manufacturing will reduce waste. In some cases, companies may use classic algorithms to divide a large problem into more manageable chunks and then apply QC to those smaller sections to expedite calculations. Over the short term, QC optimization applications are most likely to generate benefits. For instance, autonomous cars may be on the road with human drivers who don\u0026rsquo;t always make rational decisions. QC might help autonomous vehicles correctly predict how drivers might react in certain circumstances by analyzing massive quantities of driving data.[[footnote 4]]\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eSimulation.\u003c/em\u003e\u0026nbsp;QC can enable faster and more precise simulations, such as those that assess the internal energy structure of different molecules and their interactions. Within mobility, simulations could help to optimize battery development, facilitate the creation of heat-resistant materials, and aid the development of alternative aerospace fuels. Such use cases are likely to gain traction over the medium term.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eHybrid machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI)\u003c/em\u003e.\u003cstrong\u003e\u003c/strong\u003eQC algorithms can reduce the training time and power requirements for ML/AI models, especially in the most computationally intensive layers, which will help companies reach decisions more quickly. For instance, they might be able to shift flight schedules and routes more rapidly based on data from atmospheric models. Another benefit is that QC might decrease the amount of training data required. It will likely take five to ten years for QC to generate substantial outcomes within AI and ML.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n[[exhibit 1]]\n\u003cp\u003eIn the near term, companies may generate the most impact by relying on a hybrid operating model in which they apply HPC to some problems and reserve QC for select cases where it offers the greatest benefits. Consider chemical interactions. Since quantum mechanics govern how atoms and subatomic particles interact, QC could model this intrinsically quantum process with much less memory and processing power than that required by HPC.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eCurrent and future QC mobility applications\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eQC can promote improvement along the entire mobility value chain (Exhibit 2). Within manufacturing, for instance, OEMs can use QC to optimize the creation of digital twins, which are virtual representations of factories that can help companies optimize robot paths within warehouses, schedule jobs, place equipment, enhance quality control, or improve energy usage. A leading global automotive supplier has entered a partnership with a QC company to build digital twins that will provide greater insight into equipment performance and production processes while potentially reducing waste and energy use.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[exhibit 2]]\n\u003cp\u003eSome of the most important QC use cases involve engineering R\u0026amp;D and product design. Consider battery technology: almost all EV batteries now contain lithium, often in combination with other chemicals, and manufacturers are investigating other options. QC could improve the algorithms for analyzing molecular structure and interactions, allowing manufacturers to create lighter, safer, and more cost-effective batteries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOEMs have already formed partnerships with QC companies to accelerate battery development. Some companies are starting to create QC algorithms that use density functional theory to analyze the electronic structures of different materials much more rapidly and accurately than is possible with HPC. Beyond battery development, OEMs could use QC to gain more detailed and rapid insights about chemical properties and reactions during the development of green fuels or heat-resistant materials.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Disruptor1UP dis1]]\n\u003cp\u003eQC could also transform multiple areas of vehicle, aircraft, and satellite design, allowing OEMs to optimize product weight, sensor positioning, and resistance to physical stress. It could also improve computational fluid dynamics testing. These efforts could potentially costly build-test-improve cycles for metal-forming processes because QC can provide insights more rapidly than HPC. Again, multiple OEMs are off to an early start by working with QC companies on design issues to leverage quantum processors and tailored simulation algorithms to predict how any process modifications could alter the composition of vehicle parts and determine whether the changes would make the components noncompliant with regulations. In addition to expediting development cycles and increasing safety, the virtual modeling could help OEMs produce lighter, more fuel-efficient vehicles.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eApplications in the broader mobility ecosystem\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eQC could potentially benefit all players in the mobility ecosystem, including fleet providers and the start-ups that are trying to disrupt transportation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eFleet optimization\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e QC algorithms can optimize fleet management, resulting in more efficient operations, reduced costs, and \u003ca href=\"/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/fleet-decarbonization-how-an-expanding-value-chain-could-reshape-freight\"\u003ea better environmental footprint\u003c/a\u003e. Some trucking fleets now use QC to analyze the effect of multiple variables, including road construction, when planning routes and dispatching drivers. Within maritime, a leading global oil and gas company is working on a QC initiative that involves modeling the comparative advantages of different shipping routes to increase the rate of just-in-time energy delivery. A global OEM has signed a deal to use NASA\u0026rsquo;s quantum computer in its autonomous-car research and hopes to plot the most efficient routes for diesel commercial truck fleets within regions that contain multiple cities.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[globalsidebar MCFM]]\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eTraffic-flow simulation\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e Road congestion is an increasing problem in many countries, and Volkswagen, in combination with D-Wave Systems, has attempted to develop traffic flow optimization algorithms. In one project, it analyzed data from public taxis in Beijing to determine the best routes between the city center and the airport. Volkswagen then created a mobile app that can provide the best route to any destination. In Lisbon, Volkswagen equipped public buses with a system that uses QC to calculate the fastest route in near real time.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eFuel and cargo loading\u003c/em\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e Many aviation companies have set ambitious sustainability targets because air traffic is responsible for a high percentage of global emissions. They are also trying to reduce supply chain bottlenecks, which have become more common since the pandemic, by streamlining processes and reducing transit time. QC can help in both areas. For instance, a leading global aerospace company is working on QC algorithms that increase loading efficiency and optimize cargo distribution on flights\u0026mdash;improvements that could reduce both time and costs. These algorithms consider multiple variables that affect payload capacity, including the aircraft\u0026rsquo;s center of gravity and fuselage shear limits.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eAir-traffic management\u003c/em\u003e. \u003c/strong\u003eAdvanced air mobility involves the flight of next-generation concepts, including passenger drones. One organization, the Quantum Transformation Project, is already attempting to optimize flight routes and scheduling for these aircraft by using QC to assess numerous factors in combination, including constantly changing weather conditions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cem\u003eVehicle and infrastructure maintenance\u003c/em\u003e. \u003c/strong\u003eBy processing vast amounts of data from sensors and monitoring systems, quantum algorithms can detect anomalies and predict maintenance requirements before critical failures occur. This proactive approach can improve safety, reduce downtime, and enhance overall operational efficiency.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2\u003eMaking the move to quantum computing\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCompared with other innovative technologies, investment in QC is still relatively low. It has steadily grown in recent years, however, primarily because various governments have directed large amounts of public funding to it. The QC \u003ca href=\"/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech-2023\"\u003eequity investment in 2022 was about $2 billion\u003c/a\u003e, compared with $5 billion for generative AI and $16 billion for immersive-reality technologies.[[footnote 5]] Companies clearly recognize QC\u0026rsquo;s potential value, however, and are considering possible QC applications. As they explore the potential cost and speed advantages, they should consider the following factors:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eAlgorithm complexity\u003c/em\u003e. QC may have an intrinsic speed advantage because its parallel-processing capabilities reduce the number of unique calculations required.[[footnote 6]] For instance, QC can analyze information from unstructured databases more quickly than HPC.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eExecution time\u003c/em\u003e. Total execution time is highly dependent on hardware and architectures. Although QC algorithms may find answers using fewer calculations, their execution time might not be faster than that of HPC because of differences in gate speed, read-in/read-out time, and other factors. \u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eEnergy requirements\u003c/em\u003e.\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003eHPC can consume up to 25 megawatts of power, which may increase costs and interfere with an organization\u0026rsquo;s sustainability goals. Energy consumption for QC may be negligible compared with this, as most of it is related to cooling systems.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eCapital and operational expenditures\u003c/em\u003e. QC may be more expensive than HPC over the short term because of the infrastructure and materials required. For instance, many of essential QC components are not yet produced on a large scale, increasing costs. QC could become more cost-competitive as the sector matures and more downstream suppliers become available.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ul\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor those companies that want to accelerate their QC efforts, three activities may help. First, technology monitoring and capability building are essential. Companies could build dedicated teams to track the latest QC developments, including those related to hardware, hybrid integration, coding platforms, and postquantum cryptography protocols. In addition to accelerating progress, the presence of a QC-focused group may signal this technology\u0026rsquo;s importance to the entire organization.\u003c/p\u003e\n[[Disruptor1UP dis2]]\n\u003cp\u003eThe next activity is both practical and basic: use case identification. Over the next three to five years, companies may focus their attention on projects involving noisy intermediate-scale quantum. The computers involved will have between 50 and a few hundred qubits, and their performance may surpass HPC in many instances, but the \u0026ldquo;noise\u0026rdquo; in the quantum gates will limit the number of sequential calculations that can be performed before errors arise. Over the longer term, companies may benefit from fault-tolerant QC, which could emerge before the end of the decade. This type of computing minimizes the errors that can occur when qubits interact.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe last key activity is one familiar to many OEMs: collaborating at scale with QC companies and academic institutions. Active participation in such partnerships may help ensure that some QC research focuses on areas that are critical to mobility, and it may help increase the talent pipeline for those companies that want to bring QC skills in-house.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs the mobility sector undergoes changes not seen for decades, QC could be essential to achieving an intelligent, connected ecosystem that relies on the swift exchange and processing of massive amounts of data. While the journey to capture QC\u0026rsquo;s full potential may seem long and protracted, the technology could potentially shave years off the development timelines for autonomous vehicles and other innovations that might otherwise never materialize or else take decades to achieve.\u003c/p\u003e"},"isFullScreenInteractive":{"boolValue":false},"hideStickySocialShareBar":{"boolValue":false},"desktopID":{"value":""},"mobileID":{"value":""},"desktopURL":{"value":""},"mobileURL":{"value":""},"desktopPaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"mobilePaddingPercentage":{"value":""},"desktopOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"mobileOverrideHeight":{"value":""},"cerosOembedURL":{"value":""},"cerosRenderMode":{"targetItem":null},"cerosBackgroundColor":{"targetItem":null},"hideByLine":{"boolValue":true},"tableOfContentsTitle":{"value":"TABLE OF CONTENTS"},"accessStatus":{"targetItem":{"key":{"value":"RegisteredUsers"},"value":{"value":"Registered Users"}}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"hasSpecialReport":{"boolValue":false},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"displayName":"Article"}},"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"externalPublication":{"value":""},"mobileReady":{"boolValue":true},"forClientsOnly":{"boolValue":false},"excludeFromClientLink":{"boolValue":false},"originalPublishDate":{"jsonValue":{"value":"2023-09-13T00:00:00Z"}},"footnotes":{"value":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eRussell Hensley, Kevin Laczkowski, Timo M\u0026ouml;ller, and Dennis Schwedhelm, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/can-the-automotive-industry-scale-fast-enough\"\u003eCan the automotive industry scale fast enough?\u003c/a\u003e\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eMcKinsey Quarterly\u003c/em\u003e, May 12, 2022.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/can-the-automotive-industry-scale-fast-enough\"\u003eCan the automotive industry scale fast enough?\u003c/a\u003e\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eMcKinsey Quarterly\u003c/em\u003e, May 12, 2022.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMichael Bogobowicz, Scarlett Gao, Mateusz Masiowski, Niko Mohr, Henning Soller, Rodney Zemmel, and Matija Zesko, \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\"/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/quantum-technology-sees-record-investments-progress-on-talent-gap\"\u003eQuantum technology sees record investments, progress on talent gap\u003c/a\u003e,\u0026rdquo; April 24, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWeiping Fu et al., \u0026ldquo;Quantum decision making in automatic driving,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eScientific Reports\u003c/em\u003e, June 30, 2022.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cem\u003eMcKinsey Tech Trends Outlook 2023\u003c/em\u003e, July 20, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eResearchers have tailored many HPC solutions to suit particular use cases. With QC, which is still in its relatively early stages, tailored algorithms may not be available, which could negate any potential speed advantage.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},"contributoryPractice":{"targetItems":[{"displayName":"Automotive \u0026 Assembly"}]},"aboutTheAuthors":{"value":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eScarlett Gao\u003c/strong\u003e is an associate in McKinsey\u0026rsquo;s London office; \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/timo-moller\"\u003eTimo M\u0026ouml;ller\u003c/a\u003e \u003c/strong\u003eis a partner in the Cologne office; \u003cstrong\u003e\u003ca href=\"/our-people/niko-mohr\"\u003eNiko Mohr\u003c/a\u003e \u003c/strong\u003eis a partner in the D\u0026uuml;sseldorf office; \u003cstrong\u003eAlexia Pastr\u0026eacute;\u003c/strong\u003e is an alumna of the Nairobi office; and\u003cstrong\u003e Felix Ziegler\u003c/strong\u003e is an associate in the New York office.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis article was edited by Eileen Hannigan, a senior editor in the Waltham, Massachusetts, office.\u003c/p\u003e"},"authors":{"targetItems":[{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"6F6AEC214EC049499F4E1D2AA16F05C1","name":"Scarlett Gao","authorTitle":{"value":"Scarlett Gao"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"F2769DD2DBF14A2B9A4E4951C42DE186","name":"Timo Moller","authorTitle":{"value":"Timo Möller"},"description":{"value":"Co-leads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, focusing on disruptive trends such as vehicle connectivity, autonomous driving, electrification, and shared mobility"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/timo moller/timo_mller_4028_fc-mask_profile_1536x1152.png","alt":""},"emailLinks":{"value":"Timo_Moeller@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":"https://www.linkedin.com/in/timom%C3%B6ller/"},"description":{"value":"Coleads the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility with a focus on the strategic and operational questions around disruptive trends; supports scale-ups and incumbents in transforming mobility businesses"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Cologne","displayName":"Cologne"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/timo moller/timo_mller_4028_fc-mask_headshot_988x741.png"},"url":{"path":"/our-people/timo-moller"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"EE8DB593E9EA4B659183DB897E8E2134","name":"Niko Mohr","authorTitle":{"value":"Niko Mohr"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[{"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/our people/niko mohr/niko_mohr_profile_1536x1152.jpg","alt":"Niko Mohr"},"emailLinks":{"value":"niko_mohr@mckinsey.com"},"linkedInUrl":{"value":""},"description":{"value":"Valued by international clients in sectors from advanced industries to telecommunications to healthcare for his deep expertise in digital/tech strategy and transformation, acquired from more than 25 years of consulting experience at the senior-management level"},"locations":{"targetItems":[{"name":"Dusseldorf","displayName":"Düsseldorf"}]},"firmTitle":{"value":"Expert Partner"},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"url":{"path":"/our-people/niko-mohr"}}]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"0C896FDA870F4336BB01C2973ED53991","name":"Alexia Pastre","authorTitle":{"value":"Alexia Pastré"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}},{"template":{"id":"3FBABDB63A094F68B1F8E1BBE1BA124E","name":"Author"},"id":"3079CD99F06548D4AAEDCA1BFEB66F55","name":"Felix Ziegler","authorTitle":{"value":"Felix Ziegler"},"description":{"value":""},"thumbnailImage":{"alt":"","src":null},"profile":{"targetItems":[]}}]},"nonPartnerAuthors":{"targetItems":[]},"interactiveToUse":{"targetItem":null},"enableArticleComponents":{"boolValue":false},"relatedArticles":{"targetItems":[{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Shaping the long race in quantum communication and quantum sensing"},"url":{"path":"/industries/industrials-and-electronics/our-insights/shaping-the-long-race-in-quantum-communication-and-quantum-sensing"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"While quantum computing is making headlines, two related technologies\u0026mdash;quantum sensing and quantum communication\u0026mdash;could reach the market earlier and potentially transform multiple industries."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/industries/advanced electronics/our insights/shaping the long race in quantum communication and quantum sensing/shaping-the-long-race-in-quantum- communication-1325926085-thumb-1536x1536.jpg","alt":"Blue waves pattern"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"Quantum technology sees record investments, progress on talent gap"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/quantum-technology-sees-record-investments-progress-on-talent-gap"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Investors buoy established quantum start-ups, technological progress continues\u0026mdash;though at a slower pace\u0026mdash;and more academic institutions offer quantum programs."},"standardImage":{"src":"/~/media/mckinsey/business functions/mckinsey digital/our insights/quantum technology sees record investments progress on talent gap/thumb-adobestock_538964878-v2.jpg","alt":"Quantum computer, gold silver mechanism isolated on white background - stock image"},"heroImage":null,"thumbnailImage":null},{"sourcePublication":{"targetItem":null},"publicationSource":null,"externalPublication":{"value":""},"title":{"value":"McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2023"},"url":{"path":"/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/the-top-trends-in-tech-2023"},"eyebrow":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interactive"}},"articleType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Interactive"}},"contentType":{"targetItem":{"name":"Article"}},"description":{"value":"Which technology trends matter most for companies in 2023? 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