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decoding='async'/><span class="by">By</span> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/author/piero-cingari/" title="Posts by Piero Cingari" rel="author">Piero Cingari</a></span><span class="meta-item date"><time class="post-date" datetime="2024년 11월 23일">2024년 11월 23일</time></span><span class="meta-item has-next-icon post-cat"> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/economy/" class="category term-color-87" rel="category">경제</a> </span> <span class="meta-item read-time has-icon"><i class="tsi tsi-clock"></i>3 분 읽기</span></div></div> </div> <div class="ts-row"> <div class="col-8 main-content s-post-contain"> <div class="single-featured"> <div class="featured"> <a href="https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23114947/1732330185-trader-ai7.png" class="image-link media-ratio ar-bunyad-main" title="2025년 美 경제 전망은 ‘보통보다 흐리다’고 JP모건이 예측: 호황, 불황 시나리오"><img fetchpriority="high" width="801" height="524" src="https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23114947/1732330185-trader-ai7.png" 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카지노와 같은 시나리오에 직면할 수 있으며, 세금 감면과 규제 완화로 인한 잠재적 호황과 정책 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-google-interstitial="false">불확실성 및 무역 제한</a>으로 인한 경기 침체의 위험이 교차할 수 있다.</p> <p>이는 2024년 선거의 적폐와 차기 <strong>도널드 트럼프</strong> 행정부의 초기 정책 지표로 인해 형성된 극명하게 분열된 경제 전망을 제시한 JP모건의 수석 이코노미스트인 <strong>마이클 페롤리</strong>(Michael Feroli)의 핵심 메시지이다.</p> <h3 class="wp-block-heading">2025년의 상반된 시나리오: 경제 호황 또는 스태그플레이션</h3> <p>페롤리는 이번 주 초 고객들과 공유한 메모에서 2025년 미국 경제의 방향에 대한 상반된 시나리오를 제시했다.</p> <p>“한 경로는 세금 감면과 규제 완화가 경제 활동을 촉진하여 생산성 성장과 GDP를 증가시킬 것이라고 보고 있다”고 이 경제학자가 언급했다.</p> <p>“다른 경로는 정책 불확실성이 성장을 저해하고 무역 및 이민 제한이 스태그플레이션적 편향을 가져올 것이라고 예측한다”고 덧붙였다.</p> <p>이들 두 극단 사이에서 균형을 잡으며, JP모건은 2025년 성장률이 2%로 완만하게 둔화되고 실업률이 4.5%로 약간 상승할 것으로 전망했다.</p> <p>페롤리는 최대 고용과 안정적인 인플레이션이라는 미국 연방준비제도(연준)의 이중 권한이 앞으로 복잡한 길에 직면해 있다고 강조한다.</p> <p>인플레이션 위험은 2년 전과 비교해 완화되었지만, 연준이 선호하는 인플레이션 지표인 핵심 개인소비지출(PCE)은 여전히 2%대 상단에서 고착되어 있다. 동시에 노동 시장은 둔화되고 있지만, 실업률이 추가 상승을 피할 수 있을 정도로 바닥을 치지 않았다.</p> <p>“내년의 전망은 평소보다 더 불확실하다”고 이 투자은행이 적었다.</p> <h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>정책 및 관세 리스크</strong></h2> <h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>이민 및 노동 공급</strong></h3> <p>이민 정책은 트럼프 행정부 하에서 2025년에 중심 무대에 오를 것으로 예상된다.</p> <p>순 이민의 감소는 노동 공급 성장, 고용 증가 및 전체 GDP 확장을 크게 저해할 수 있다.</p> <p>JP모건은 이민 제한이 노동시장을 긴축시켜 장기적으로 경제 성장을 저해할 것으로 전망하고 있다.</p> <p>그러나 그들은 “이민 정책이 인플레이션에 1차적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상하지는 않는다”고 덧붙였다.</p> <h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>중국에 대한 관세와 인플레이션 영향</strong></h3> <p>무역 정책에 대해, JP모건은 2025년에 중국 수입품에 대해 60%의 전방위 관세가 부과될 것으로 예상한다.</p> <p>다른 국가들에서 수입하는 제품에 대한 관세는 범위가 더 제한적일 것으로 예상되지만, 관세가 도입되면 공급망이 추가로 혼란을 겪을 수 있다.</p> <p>현재 미국의 중국산 제품에 대한 관세는 11%이다. 60%로 급증하는 것은 극적인 상승을 나타내며, 미국-중국 무역 관계에 상당한 압박을 가할 수 있다.</p> <p>보다 넓은 경제적 영향은 여전히 불확실하지만, 페롤리는 이러한 보호주의 조치에서 발생할 수 있는 인플레이션 압박을 경고한다.</p> <p>“무역량 기준으로 볼 때, 미국은 중국 수입품에 대해 2,150억 달러의 세금을 부과하고, 중국은 미국 수출품에 대해 700억 달러 이상의 세금을 부과하게 될 것이다”고 그가 언급했다.</p> <p>JP모건은 2025년까지 연준의 2% 인플레이션 목표를 향한 추가적인 진전을 예상한다.</p> <p>그러나 트럼프 대통령 당선인이 제안한 정책, 특히 중국에 대한 높은 관세는 인플레이션이 다소 상승할 위험을 내포하고 있다. 가장 큰 영향은 중반기에 예상되며, 관세 인상이 가격을 일시적으로 상승시킬 수 있다.</p> <p>결과적으로, JP모건은 핵심 PCE 인플레이션이 2025년 말까지 2.3%로 상승한 후, 2026년에는 연준의 2% 목표와 점차 일치할 것으로 예측한다.</p> <h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>재정 적자: 커지는 도전 과제</strong></h3> <p>재정 정책도 주목받고 있으며, 미국 예산 적자는 앞으로 몇 년 동안 크게 확대될 것으로 예상된다.</p> <p>트럼프 행정부와 공화당이 장악한 의회는 2017년 세금 감면 및 일자리 법(TCJA)을 연장할 것으로 예상되며, 개인 소득세 조항은 2025년 말에 만료될 예정이다.</p> <p>“우리는 현재의 세법이 사실상 모두 연장될 것으로 예상하며, 이는 2026년 GDP의 약 7%에 해당하는 연방 재정 적자를 초래할 것으로 예상한다. 이는 우리가 완전 고용에 있고 전쟁에 직접적으로 연루되지 않은 시점이다. 경기 사이클과 지정학적 요인의 변동성은 모두 적자가 확대될 위험을 높인다”고 페롤리가 언급했다.</p> <p class="block core-block"> <p><em><strong>다음 읽기:</strong></em></p> <ul> <li><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/stocks/%EC%95%84%EB%A7%88%EC%A1%B4-%EC%9E%90%EC%B2%B4-%EB%B8%8C%EB%9E%9C%EB%93%9C-%EC%9A%B0%EB%8C%80%EB%A1%9C-eu-%EB%94%94%EC%A7%80%ED%84%B8%EC%8B%9C%EC%9E%A5%EB%B2%95-%EC%9C%84%EB%B0%98-%ED%98%90%EC%9D%98/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em><strong>아마존, EU가 디지털 시장법에 따른 자사 제품 우선지원 의혹 조사 중 주요 벌금 위험에 처하다: 보도</strong></em></a></li> </ul> <p><em>AI를 사용하여 Midjourney로 생성한 이미지.</em></p> <p><strong>Benzinga Pro의 독점 뉴스 및 도구로 더 많은 승리를 거두세요</strong><br /> 독점 속보 및 스캐너와 같은 Benzinga Pro의 강력한 도구 세트로 다른 트레이더보다 우위를 점하세요.<br /> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?t=be2bewe5mibe3bz3&utm_source=bz-kor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><strong>여기를 클릭</strong></a>하여 14일 무료 체험을 시작하세요.</p> </div> </div> <div class="the-post-tags"><a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/2025-outlook/" rel="tag">2025 outlook</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/donald-trump/" rel="tag">Donald Trump</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/expert-ideas/" rel="tag">Expert ideas</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/jae-hur/" rel="tag">Jae Hur</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/michael-feroli/" rel="tag">Michael Feroli</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/piero-cingari/" rel="tag">Piero Cingari</a> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/tag/stories-that-matter/" 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class="media"> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/stocks/%EB%B2%A4%EC%A7%95%EA%B0%80%EC%9D%98-%EC%8A%A4%ED%86%A1-%EC%9C%84%EC%8A%A4%ED%8D%BC-%EC%A7%80%EC%88%98-%EB%8D%B8%ED%83%80-%ED%95%AD%EA%B3%B5-%EB%82%98%EC%9D%B4%ED%82%A4-%EC%98%A4%ED%86%A0/" class="image-link media-ratio ratio-is-custom" title="벤징가의 ‘스톡 위스퍼’ 지수: 델타 항공, 나이키, 오토데스크, 코인베이스 및 블랙스톤"><span data-bgsrc="https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23143906/1732340346-Stock-Whisper-Index-Logo-6-copy-300x174.jpeg" class="img bg-cover wp-post-image attachment-medium size-medium lazyload" data-bgset="https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23143906/1732340346-Stock-Whisper-Index-Logo-6-copy-300x174.jpeg 300w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23143906/1732340346-Stock-Whisper-Index-Logo-6-copy-768x445.jpeg 768w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23143906/1732340346-Stock-Whisper-Index-Logo-6-copy-150x87.jpeg 150w, 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href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/stocks/%EB%8B%A4%EC%9D%8C-%E7%BE%8E-%EB%B2%95%EB%AC%B4%EB%B6%80%EA%B0%80-%EA%B2%A8%EB%83%A5%ED%95%B4%EC%95%BC-%ED%95%A0-%EB%A7%A4%EA%B7%B8-7-%EC%A3%BC%EC%8B%9D%EC%9D%80-%EB%B2%A4%EC%A7%95%EA%B0%80-%EC%84%A4/" class="image-link media-ratio ratio-is-custom" title="다음 美 법무부가 겨냥해야 할 매그 7 주식은? 벤징가 설문 조사에서 50% 이상이…"><span data-bgsrc="https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23131201/1732335121-Magnificent-7-stocks-300x200.jpeg" class="img bg-cover wp-post-image attachment-medium size-medium lazyload" data-bgset="https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23131201/1732335121-Magnificent-7-stocks-300x200.jpeg 300w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23131201/1732335121-Magnificent-7-stocks-768x512.jpeg 768w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23131201/1732335121-Magnificent-7-stocks-150x100.jpeg 150w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2024/11/23131201/1732335121-Magnificent-7-stocks-450x300.jpeg 450w, 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id='div-gpt-ad-1715084288836-0' style='min-width: 300px; min-height: 250px;'> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1715084288836-0'); }); </script> </div></div> </div> </div><div id="block-3" class="widget widget_block"><div class="wp-block-group"><div class="wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow"><h2 class="wp-block-heading">최근 뉴스</h2><ul class="wp-block-latest-posts__list wp-block-latest-posts"><li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://kr.benzinga.com/news/usa/stocks/sec-%ED%85%8C%EB%9D%BC%ED%8F%BC-%EB%9E%A9%EC%8A%A4%EC%9D%98-%EB%8C%80%EA%B7%9C%EB%AA%A8-%ED%95%A9%EC%9D%98%EC%97%90-%EB%94%B0%EB%9D%BC-2024%EB%85%84-%EB%B2%8C%EA%B8%88-82%EC%96%B5-%EB%8B%AC%EB%9F%AC/">SEC, 테라폼 랩스의 대규모 합의에 따라 2024년 벌금 82억 달러로 기록 경신</a></li> <li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" 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elementor-element elementor-element-9a2fcf8" data-id="9a2fcf8" data-element_type="column"> <div class="elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated"> <div class="elementor-element elementor-element-6d36357 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image" data-id="6d36357" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="image.default"> <div class="elementor-widget-container"> <a href="https://kr.benzinga.com"> <img class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-9522 lazyload" width="822" height="61" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB2aWV3Qm94PScwIDAgODIyIDYxJyB4bWxucz0naHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmcnPjwvc3ZnPg==" alt srcset="https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2022/03/25174247/korea-light.png 822w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2022/03/25174247/korea-light-300x22.png 300w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2022/03/25174247/korea-light-768x57.png 768w, https://global-assets.benzinga.com/kr/2022/03/25174247/korea-light-150x11.png 150w, 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