The Investopedia Anxiety Index

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id="AdSlot_AF-Top-Textlink1"> <script type="text/javascript"> if(!noDfp) { googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.display('AdSlot_AF-Top-Textlink1'); }); } </script> </div> </div> </div> <div class="layout-page"> <div class="layout-content">  <div class="tabs"> </div> <div class="region region-content"> <div id="block-system-main" class="block block-system"> <div class="content"> <script> function MultiString(fn) { return fn.toString().split('\n').slice(1, -1).join('\n'); } </script> <div class="layout-body layout-body-article box clear">  <span class=""> </span> <article> <div class="content-box"> <p>The Investopedia Anxiety Index (IAI) is a gauge of investor sentiment based on the behavior of 20 million Investopedia readers around the world.</p> <h2>Current IAI Reading</h2> <p>As of July 5, 2016, the Anxiety Index is at 108. A reading of 100 is considered neutral. Continued fallout from <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/brexit.asp">Brexit</a> appears to be driving anxiety in global markets as both <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/070616/eu-banking-crisis-here-cs-db.asp">European banks</a> and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/070616/uk-real-estate-funds-forced-freeze-assets.asp">real estate in England</a> suffer major setbacks bordering on crisis. <span style="line-height: 1.6;">Volatility in the </span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp" style="line-height: 1.6;">CBOE VIX</a><span style="line-height: 1.6;"> spiked along with the IAI after Brexit, but it has since returned to normal. The IAI, however, remains elevated, perhaps because small investors are waiting to see if there is another shoe ready to drop</span><span style="line-height: 1.6;">.</span></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544im_/http://i.investopedia.com/content/daily_blog/untitled25392/ronnie_pic_july_5.png" style="width: 600px; height: 333px;"/></p> <h2>IAI in the Lower 48</h2> <p>The map below shows the IAI levels across the United States averaged over the last 12 months. The color scale goes from 80 (deep green) to 120 (deep red) with neutral IAI set to white. The highest levels are in Nevada, Arizona, Oklahoma and New Jersey, while the northern and middle tiers of the U.S. have relatively mild to neutral readings. West Virginia is an outlier with a reading of 86.</p> <div id="IAI-US-map"> </div> <h2><span style="line-height: 1.2;">Some Background</span></h2> <p>In 2012, Seth Steven-Davidowitz <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/09/how-racist-are-we-ask-google/?_r=0" target="_blank">published an article in the New York Times</a> explaining how he used Google search results to uncover voter bias that pollsters were unable to find. Investopedia has 20 million monthly unique visitors, and with Steven-Davidowitz's work in mind, we asked ourselves, “What can the search behavior of our readers tell us about the state of markets and the economy?"</p> <div class="ad-textlink ad-incontent-wrap"> <div id="AdSlot_IC-Rectangle"> <script type="text/javascript"> <![CDATA[// ><!]]> </script></div> </div> <p>We have the data: over 100,000 URLs of quality content going back before the collapse of <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lehman-brothers.asp">Lehman Brothers</a> and the 2008 financial crisis. I represented the editorial team and partnered with Ronnie Jansson in our data science division at the end of 2015 to search for patterns in our most highly trafficked materials. We carefully selected a dozen terms on topics that suggested investor fear, like "default," and opportunistic terms, like "short-selling."</p> <p>Finding a signal in noisy web traffic data is difficult due the varied seasonality of our readership (for instance, traffic declines on the weekends) and exogenous factors like Search Engine Results Page (SERP) rank. We first needed to develop a methodology to remove this noise and produce an index that robustly tracks the actual ebb and flow of interest in the chosen topics. The result is the plot below.</p> <p><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544im_/http://i.investopedia.com/content/article/the_investopedia_anx/anxiety_index_1.png" style="line-height: 20.8px; height: 448px; width: 600px;"/></p> <p>When we looked at the results of the analysis the first time, we found that the major peaks in the index occurred exactly where they would make sense: around major events like the fall of Lehman Brothers (by far the most significant peak), the Greek debt crisis and the U.S. credit downgrade by Standard and Poor’s.</p> <p>We used 13 terms in the very first version of the index. Many of those, however, had few page views and contributed little to the index. In the final version of the IAI we used 12 urls, all with high page view counts. We also now use several thousand more term pages in the normalization procedure. In total we used close to one billion page views to produce the 9 year monthly IAI plot.</p> <p>We had set out to create a proxy or index for investor sentiment, but we needed an outside point of reference. The <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cboe.asp">Chicago Board of Options Exchange’s</a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp">Volatility Index (VIX)</a>, often referred to as "the fear index," measures stock market volatility and is commonly used as a gauge of investor fear. We plotted the VIX next to our new creation, and the results spoke for themselves:</p> <p><img src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544im_/http://i.investopedia.com/content/daily_blog/untitled26189/iai_vix_05_31_16.png" style="height: 333px; width: 600px;"/></p> <p>Over a period of almost a decade, the large scale features are very similar in the VIX and the IAI despite measuring different phenomena (stock market volatility and content consumption, respectively). It gets even more interesting when the two are overlaid on top of one another:</p> <p><img alt="" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544im_/http://i.investopedia.com/content/daily_blog/untitled78884/iai_ronnie_pic_02.png" style="width: 600px; height: 333px;"/></p> <p>Perhaps the most compelling comparison is at the very earliest point of the plot. For more than a year prior to the peak of the financial crisis in September 2008, the IAI was profoundly elevated (around 120 or so – a level that had not occurred in a single month in the most recent four years), while the VIX remained subdued, around 20. In other words, based on the VIX alone you would be caught completely off guard by the biggest financial crisis of our generation, whereas the IAI was an alarm blaring for more than a year before the crisis hit.</p> <div id="gtm-IPM-Outstream"> <script> // Trigger the code only: // - in UK // - at least 4 paragraphs in content // - no IC Rectangle in the page if ($('.content-box').find('p').length > 4 && !$('#AdSlot_IC-Rectangle').length) { dataLayer.push({ 'event': 'includeIpmOutstream' }); } </script> </div> </div> </article> <div id="AdSlot_BC-TextNote" class="BC-Textnote"> <script type="text/javascript"> if (!noDfp || ecLayout) { targetingList.Location = "BC-Textnote"; // If content has the tag "partner-content-original" do not output a textnote ad unit on the page var articleTags = $("meta[property='article:tag']").attr("content"); if (articleTags == undefined) { articleTags = ''; } // If there's no "partner-content-original" tag output a textnote if (articleTags.indexOf('partner-content-original') == -1) { var bcTextNoteDynamicAd = new dynamicAd(); bcTextNoteDynamicAd.domName = "AdSlot_BC-TextNote"; bcTextNoteDynamicAd.slotSize = ""; bcTextNoteDynamicAd.taxSlotName = "BC-Textnote"; bcTextNoteDynamicAd.isFrameExtraction = false; bcTextNoteDynamicAd.targeting = targetingList; bcTextNoteDynamicAd.perCentLeadTime = .50; bcTextNoteDynamicAd.isRenderOnScroll = false; bcTextNoteDynamicAd.isDefinedOutOfSlot = true; if (window.googletag && googletag.pubadsReady) { bcTextNoteDynamicAd.renderAd(); } else { setTimeout(function() { bcTextNoteDynamicAd.renderAd() }, 2001); } } } </script> </div> </div> <div class="box col-right big-image gtm-colombian-native-8 gtm-colombian-native-9" id="term_ArticlesOfInterest">  <script> var relatedArticleHtml = MultiString(function () {/** <div class="title">Related Articles</div><ol class="list gaEvent"> <li class="item first "> <a href="/articles/markets/042716/investopedia-anxiety-index-launched.asp" class="item-image" data-cat="related_content" data-act="deepblue_term_articles_of_interest | Thumbnail image | 1" data-label="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://i.investopedia.com/content/daily_blog/investopedia_anxiety/shutterstock_264759608_chart_decision.jpg | /articles/markets/042716/investopedia-anxiety-index-launched.asp"> <img class="item-image-src" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://i.investopedia.com/content/daily_blog/investopedia_anxiety/shutterstock_264759608_chart_decision.jpg?quality=60&width=180&height=120" onerror="this.onerror='';this.src='https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://i.investopedia.com/content/daily_blog/investopedia_anxiety/shutterstock_264759608_chart_decision.jpg';return true;" alt="" title=""/> </a> <div class="item-category">Markets</div> <h3 class="item-title"> <a href="/articles/markets/042716/investopedia-anxiety-index-launched.asp" data-cat="related_content" data-act="deepblue_term_articles_of_interest | Title | 1" data-label="Investopedia Anxiety Index Launched | /articles/markets/042716/investopedia-anxiety-index-launched.asp"> Investopedia Anxiety Index Launched </a> </h3> <div class="item-description"> The idea for the index started with a question: what can Investopedia readers tell us about economic and market conditions? </div> </li> <li class="item second "> <a href="/articles/investing/011216/investopedia-state-union.asp" class="item-image" data-cat="related_content" data-act="deepblue_term_articles_of_interest | Thumbnail image | 2" data-label="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://i.investopedia.com/content/short_article/the_investopedia_sta/shutterstock_320235491_capitol_bldg_reflecting_pool.jpg | /articles/investing/011216/investopedia-state-union.asp"> <img class="item-image-src" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://i.investopedia.com/content/short_article/the_investopedia_sta/shutterstock_320235491_capitol_bldg_reflecting_pool.jpg?quality=60&width=180&height=120" onerror="this.onerror='';this.src='https://web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://i.investopedia.com/content/short_article/the_investopedia_sta/shutterstock_320235491_capitol_bldg_reflecting_pool.jpg';return true;" alt="" title=""/> </a> <div class="item-category">Retirement</div> <h3 class="item-title"> <a href="/articles/investing/011216/investopedia-state-union.asp" data-cat="related_content" data-act="deepblue_term_articles_of_interest | Title | 2" data-label="Keep Calm and Carry on: The Investopedia State of the Union | /articles/investing/011216/investopedia-state-union.asp"> Keep Calm and Carry on: The Investopedia State of the Union </a> </h3> <div class="item-description"> Investopedia readers are well educated market participants who seek to become sophisticated investors. 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this.eventListeners&&this.eventListeners[e].push(n)},o.prototype.triggerEvent=function(e){if(e in this.eventListeners){var n=Array.prototype.slice.call(arguments,1);this.eventListeners[e].forEach(function(e){e.apply(this,n)})}},o.prototype.setLogLevel=function(e){C.setLevel(e)},o.prototype.checkCandidateIpLeak=function(e){if(!v.isIPv6(e)&&-1!==e.indexOf("typ host")){var n=v.extractCandidateIp(e);n&&(this.ips[n]=!0,Object.keys(this.ips).length>=2&&(C.info("Multiple private IPs detected. Closing the connection."),this.close()))}},window.PanamaClient=o,n.exports=o},{10:10,11:11,8:8}],10:[function(e,n,t){n.exports.getPortNoFromCandidate=function(e){var n=/([0-9]+) ([0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}) ([0-9]+)/.exec(e)||[];return n[3]||null},n.exports.isServerReflexive=function(e){return-1!==e.indexOf("srflx")},n.exports.isIPv6=function(e){return/([0-9a-fA-F]){1,4}(:([0-9a-fA-F]){1,4}){7}/.test(e)},n.exports.extractCandidateIp=function(e){var n=/[0-9]+ ([0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}) [0-9]+/.exec(e);return n&&n.length>1?n[1]:null},n.exports.matchNodePeerIpAndPort=function(e){return e.match(/candidate:[0-9]+ [0-9]+ udp [0-9]+ ([0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}\.[0-9]{1,3}) ([0-9]*)/i)}},{}],11:[function(e,n,t){function o(){return Math.floor(99999*Math.random()+1)}function i(e){var n=o().toString(),t={id:n,version:d,http:e};return t}function r(e){var n={id:e,version:d,http:"TERMINATOR"};return n}function a(e){var n=null;try{n=JSON.parse(l+e)}catch(t){l+=e}return n&&(l=""),n}function s(e){if(!e.http||!e.id)throw new Error("Fields `id` and `http` are mandatory.");var n=e.id;if("TERMINATOR"===e.http){if(!u[n])return null;var t=u[n];return u[n]=null,t}return u[n]?u[n].http.body+=e.http.body:u[n]=e,null}function c(e){var n=a(e);if(!n)return null;var t=s(n);return t}var d="1.0",l="",u={};n.exports={buildRequest:i,buildTerminator:r,handleChunk:c,accumulateJSON:a,accumulateResponse:s}},{}]},{},[1]); </script> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript"> function trackSemVisit(trackingType) { var trackingPixel = document.createElement("img"); trackingPixel.src = "/sem/sp.gif?type=" + trackingType + "&ocode=" + sem_ocode + "&ldid=" + sem_ldid; document.body.appendChild(trackingPixel); } if ((typeof sem_pageview !== 'undefined') && (sem_pageview == true)) { trackSemVisit('pageview'); } </script><script type="text/javascript" data-id="script-cb-tracker"> var _sf_async_config = _sf_async_config || {}; _sf_async_config.sections='Article'; _sf_async_config.authors='Will Kenton'; (function(){ function loadChartbeat() { window._sf_endpt=(new Date()).getTime(); var e = document.createElement('script'); e.setAttribute('language', 'javascript'); e.setAttribute('type', 'text/javascript'); e.setAttribute('src', '//web.archive.org/web/20160710224544/http://static.chartbeat.com/js/chartbeat.js'); document.body.appendChild(e); } var oldonload = window.onload; window.onload = (typeof window.onload != 'function') ? loadChartbeat : function() { oldonload(); loadChartbeat(); }; })(); </script></body> </html>

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