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<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><title data-rh="true">Why AI Will Get 10X Better — Soon… | by Andrew Best | Nov, 2024 | Artificial Intelligence in Plain English</title><meta data-rh="true" charset="utf-8"/><meta data-rh="true" name="viewport" content="width=device-width,minimum-scale=1,initial-scale=1,maximum-scale=1"/><meta data-rh="true" name="theme-color" content="#000000"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:name:iphone" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" name="twitter:app:id:iphone" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:ios:app_store_id" content="828256236"/><meta data-rh="true" property="al:android:package" content="com.medium.reader"/><meta data-rh="true" property="fb:app_id" content="542599432471018"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:site_name" content="Medium"/><meta data-rh="true" property="og:type" content="article"/><meta data-rh="true" property="article:published_time" 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aria-describedby="postFooterSocialMenu" aria-labelledby="postFooterSocialMenu"><div><div class="bm" aria-hidden="false"><button aria-controls="postFooterSocialMenu" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Share Post" data-testid="headerSocialShareButton" class="af fk ah ai aj ak al mu an ao ap ex mv mw mk mx my mz na nb s nc nd ne nf ng nh ni u nj nk nl"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M15.218 4.931a.4.4 0 0 1-.118.132l.012.006a.45.45 0 0 1-.292.074.5.5 0 0 1-.3-.13l-2.02-2.02v7.07c0 .28-.23.5-.5.5s-.5-.22-.5-.5v-7.04l-2 2a.45.45 0 0 1-.57.04h-.02a.4.4 0 0 1-.16-.3.4.4 0 0 1 .1-.32l2.8-2.8a.5.5 0 0 1 .7 0l2.8 2.79a.42.42 0 0 1 .068.498m-.106.138.008.004v-.01zM16 7.063h1.5a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v10a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-11c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2v-10a2 2 0 0 1 2-2H8a.5.5 0 0 1 .35.15.5.5 0 0 1 .15.35.5.5 0 0 1-.15.35.5.5 0 0 1-.35.15H6.4c-.5 0-.9.4-.9.9v10.2a.9.9 0 0 0 .9.9h11.2c.5 0 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model, and Claude’s next model, are not performing as well as the companies had hoped — not even close!</p><blockquote class="oi"><p id="53d8" class="oj ok hd bf ol om on oo op oq or oh du">The hope was that if you want GPT 5 to be a lot better than GPT 4, all you need to do is spend 10X the money training GPT 5 (put more data and more computing resources into training the model).</p></blockquote><p id="613e" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nm nn hd no b hx os nq nr ia ot nt nu nv ou nx ny nz ov ob oc od ow of og oh gw bk">This illustration shows what’s going on with the scaling hypothesis</p><p id="9e8b" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nm nn hd no b hx np nq nr ia ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc od oe of og oh gw bk">If you don’t have a paid Medium account, you can read for free <a class="af ox" href="https://andrewbestai.substack.com/p/why-ai-will-get-10x-better-soon" rel="noopener ugc nofollow" target="_blank"><strong class="no he">here</strong></a>.</p><figure class="pb pc pd pe pf pg oy oz paragraph-image"><div role="button" tabindex="0" class="ph pi fj pj bh pk"><div class="oy oz pa"><picture><source srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/format:webp/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/format:webp/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/format:webp/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/format:webp/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/format:webp/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/format:webp/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/format:webp/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px" type="image/webp"/><source data-testid="og" srcSet="https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:640/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 640w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:720/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 720w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:750/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 750w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:786/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 786w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:828/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 828w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1100/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 1100w, https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1*VYatD47ibd-mDAGBNzbbZQ.png 1400w" sizes="(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px"/><img alt="" class="bh mt pl c" width="700" height="700" loading="lazy" role="presentation"/></picture></div></div><figcaption class="pm ff pn oy oz po pp bf b bg z du">Scaling hypothesis breaking down — AI — by Andrew Best</figcaption></figure><p id="822a" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nm nn hd no b hx np nq nr ia ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc od oe of og oh gw bk">Imagine if you were walking up a steep hill, but you could only see a little bit in front of you.</p><p id="af03" class="pw-post-body-paragraph nm nn hd no b hx np nq nr ia ns nt nu nv nw nx ny nz oa ob oc od oe of og oh gw bk">You wouldn’t notice an upcoming plateau until you reached 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