Mysteel解读：菜油反弹能否延续涨势-我的钢铁网

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<span class="time" style='margin-right: 0.5rem'>来源：我的钢铁网</span> </p> <article class="article-text article-text_1"> <div data-val="1015" id="article-content"> <div id="text"> <p>本周菜油强势上涨后小幅下跌但整体呈上涨趋势，前期国内菜油受美豆油影响，菜油跟随上涨，现货基差稳定仍然偏弱。郑商所菜油期货价格收盘上涨，截止到发稿，本周菜油全国三级菜油现货均价为8658元/吨，涨324元/吨，涨幅为38.9%。</p> <p>加拿大和美国农业产区天气持续干燥，加剧市场担忧，推动油菜籽价格大幅攀升。菜籽进口压榨利润仍然处于亏损状态，我国菜油主要来源国加拿大及俄罗斯两国菜籽菜油出口，我国菜籽、菜油本月到港供应依然宽松，然而今后三个月是全球油菜籽供应青黄不接的时间段，我国对加拿大进口油菜籽数量将在6月份之后逐渐下降，我国油菜籽的进口到港量将会逐步减少，我国菜油供需方面压力预计也将逐步减缓，且加籽价格上涨，菜油成本支撑增强。</p> <p><span></span><img alt="" src="//img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2023/06/25/172035.jpg" style="height: 303px; width: 554px" /></p> <p></p> <p><img alt="" src="//img06.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/agri/2023/06/25/172049.jpg" style="height: 391px; width: 554px" /></p> <p>6月20日，外盘油脂持续走强，带动国内盘面上涨，产地菜油报价同时上涨，导致进口成本明显增加，菜油领涨国内油脂，国内菜油库存基本见顶上周出现小幅回落。由于6月21日传闻及最终公布的美国EPA计划生柴掺混方案利好程度不及预期，给油脂市场带来冲击，假期前菜油追随美豆油走低。美<a href="https://xianhuo.cngold.org/farm/douyou.htm">豆油</a>的下滑，预计将会带动国内油脂大幅下跌。各贸易商挺价明显，现货成本较高。由于菜油库存处于高位，因此很难出现连续反弹现象。</p> <p>综上所述从菜油自身基本面来看，菜油和菜籽到港有所缓和，以及压榨厂开机率有所下降，菜油需求仍然较为疲软，国内菜油供应依然宽松。短期跟随油脂市场偏强，长远来看预计还有下行空间。后市需关注菜籽买船到港、国内开机以及消费情况。</p> <p></p>  <br /> </div> </div> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight"> 资讯编辑：朱城垒 0533-7026067 </br> 资讯监督：王涛 0533-7026866 </br> 资讯投诉：陈杰 021-26093100 </br> </article> <article class="content-block m-copyRight h-statement"> <p class="h-statement-text">免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。申请授权及投诉，请联系Mysteel（021-26093397）处理。</p> <span class='h-statement-show'>展开</span> </article> <div class="content-block-title s-title"> <h2 style="display: inline-block;"> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4125-------------1.html" external>相关文章</a> </h2> <a href="https://m.myagric.com/article/p-4125-------------1.html" 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