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<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="en"> <head> <title>Higher prices are likely for these 10 grocery items when tariffs hit</title> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;charset=utf-8"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width"> <link id="favicon" rel="shortcut icon" type="image/png" href="data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABAAAAAQCAYAAAAf8/9hAAAAAXNSR0IArs4c6QAAAHlJREFUOBFjYBgFFIcA48cYpf/opvAv+YouxODXshZDbFONDSMLSJRv8V245KdYZTD7//8XcDFGRgkwe2O1NVzMv/UomA02AMQCaUQ2CCQG0ohsEEgMphHEBgEmCIWdRNeMTRXYBTBnw2iYQpjTYXx022Hio/RAhwAAjXEfJrIXnj4AAAAASUVORK5CYII="> <style> body { display: block; padding: 0px 20px; max-width: 550px; margin: 0 auto; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; } .full-version-link { margin-left: 15px; } .slug-line { font-size: 1.1rem; margin-bottom: 15px; } .hr-line { position: relative; height: 4px; } .hr-line:after { background: linear-gradient(to right, #e60000 0%, #e60000 33.33%, #000000 33.33%, #000000 66.66%, #3366CC 66.66%); position: absolute; content: ''; height: 4px; right: 0; left: 0; top: 0; } hr.gray { border: .5px solid gray; } .story-title { line-height: 2rem; font-size: 1.5rem; margin: 0; } .topic-heading { line-height: 2rem; font-size: 1.5rem; } .topic-container>ul { padding: 0; line-height: 1.4rem; } .topic-container li { display: block; padding-bottom: 15px; } .topic-container { margin-top: 20px; } .topic-date { margin: 20px 0; font-style: italic; } .paragraphs-container { line-height: 1.5rem; } .button:link, .button:visited { background-color: white; color: black; border: 2px solid black; padding: 4px 8px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; display: inline-block; } .button:hover, .button:active { background-color: black; color: white; } .lower-nav-container { margin-top: 40px; } .lower-nav-container li { margin-left: 0; display: inline; padding-right: 20px; } h6 { text-transform: uppercase; } </style> </head> <body> <header> <p>Text-Only Version <a class="full-version-link button" href="https://www.npr.org/nx-s1-5351324">Go To Full Site</a></p> </header> <main> <article> <div class="story-container"> <p class="slug-line"> <a class="slug-link" href="/">NPR</a> > <a class="slug-link" href="/1003">National</a> </p> <div class="story-head"> <h1 class="story-title">Higher prices are likely for these 10 grocery items when tariffs hit</h1> <p>By Scott Neuman</p> <p>Friday, April 4, 2025 • 12:24 PM EDT</p> <p>Heard on <a href="/nx-s1-5314953/2025-04-05">Weekend Edition Saturday</a> </div> <div class="hr-line"></div> <div class="paragraphs-container"> <p>A trip to the grocery or liquor store is about to become even more expensive, economists say, following the latest round of <a href="/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345802/trump-tariffs-liberation-day" target="_blank">import tariffs</a> announced by President Trump on Wednesday. Those tariffs<strong> </strong>— taxes paid by businesses on goods from abroad —<strong> </strong>come on the heels of a previous round aimed specifically at Canada, Mexico and China.</p> <hr> Related Story: <a href="/g-s1-58250">NPR</a> <hr><p>Prices for items such as seafood, coffee, wine, nuts and cheese are all expected to rise. And if you're tempted to grab a candy bar while you're in the checkout line, you'll probably have to pay more for that as well.</p><p>Food industry analyst Phil Lempert, also the editor of <a href="https://www.supermarketguru.com/" target="_blank">supermarketguru.com</a>, estimates that with the latest tariffs "probably almost half of the products in a supermarket — about 40,000 products — will be affected by these tariffs, whether it's the entire product or just an ingredient."</p><p>Joseph Balagtas, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, says food prices will also be affected by other factors related to tariffs, such as higher costs for fertilizer from Canada and a weaker U.S. dollar.</p> <hr> Related Story: <a href="/nx-s1-5349403">NPR</a> <hr><p>"A main takeaway here is that the country-specific, food-specific tariffs will not tell the whole story," he says. "This is such a big change in policy that there will be broader implications."</p><p>It's impossible yet to know how much the tariffs will affect prices, but with the 10% tariff for many countries and higher "reciprocal tariffs" on other nations, the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Annex-I.pdf" target="_blank">tariff rates by country</a> could provide some clues.</p><p>Here are 10 grocery items you might want to keep an eye on and their country of origin (with tariff rates in parentheses).</p><p><h3>Seafood</h3></p><p>Some top sources: Chile (10%), India (26%), Indonesia (32%) and Vietnam (46%) are the largest suppliers, <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=108472" target="_blank">according</a> to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.</p> <hr> Related Story: <a href="/g-s1-58094">NPR</a> <hr><p>This category is likely to take a big hit because the U.S. <a href="https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/national/aquaculture/us-aquaculture#:~:text=Current%20Status%20of%20Seafood&text=The%20United%20States%20now%20ranks,is%20produced%20via%20foreign%20aquaculture." target="_blank">imports</a> the vast majority of its seafood — up to 85% according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — and several countries that supply fish and shellfish to the U.S. have been among the hardest hit by the tariffs.<br></p><p><h3>Coffee</h3></p><p>Top sources: Brazil (10%) and Colombia (10%), according to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=110079&ref=thepourover.coffee#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20is%20the,Latin%20America%20and%20the%20Caribbean." target="_blank">USDA</a>.</p> <hr> Related Story: <a href="/nx-s1-5228008">NPR</a> <hr><p>The U.S. is the world's largest importer of coffee, with about 80% of U.S. roasted imports coming from Latin America. More than 60% comes from just two countries — Brazil and Colombia, USDA says.</p><p><h3>Fruit</h3></p><p>Some top sources: Guatemala (10%), Costa Rica (10%) and Peru (10%)</p><p>Guatemala and Costa Rica are leading exporters of bananas to the U.S. Guatemala also ships melons, plantains and papayas, according to <a href="https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/opportunities-us-agricultural-products-guatemala#:~:text=Although%20Guatemala%20is%20a%20net,from%20$98%20million%20in%202022." target="_blank">USDA</a>, while Costa Rica <a href="https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/CostaRica/08#:~:text=Exports%20structure%20of%2008%20%2D%20Edible,totalled%20$%20130%20million%20in%202023." target="_blank">exports</a> pineapples, avocados and mangoes.</p><p>"These products don't have a long shelf life, and with the tariffs, we're going to face significant issues with both price and availability," Lempert says.</p><p><h3>Alcohol</h3></p><p>Top sources for wine: the European Union — France, Italy and Spain (20%). New Zealand (10%) and Australia (10%), according to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=103967#:~:text=Specifically%2C%20the%20top%20two%20countries,Economic%20Research%20Service%2C%20February%202022." target="_blank">USDA</a>.</p><p>Top sources for beer: Mexico (25%), the Netherlands and Ireland (both with the EU's 20% tariff) and Canada (25%)</p> <hr> Related Story: <a href="/nx-s1-5300051">NPR</a> <hr><p>If your favorite summer beverage is Modelo, Corona, Heineken or Guinness, you'll likely be paying more. <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=107322" target="_blank">Tequila imports</a> from Mexico have also seen a surge in recent years and will be affected by the tariffs.</p><p>Lempert says the imported alcohol sector is likely "to be clobbered." He also notes that beer sold in cans is also going to get a double hit due to tariffs on China and other aluminum producers.</p><p><h3>Beef</h3></p><p>Some top sources: New Zealand (10%) and Australia (10%), according to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-and-meat-international-trade-data" target="_blank">USDA</a>.</p><p>Although 90% of beef consumed in the U.S. is domestically produced, tariffs will likely add to existing price pressures. The cost of ground beef for consumers, for example, is already at <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112" target="_blank">historic highs</a> and according to the <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/cattle-beef/sector-at-a-glance" target="_blank">USDA</a>, the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it's been since 1951.</p><p><h3>Rice</h3></p><p>Top sources: Thailand (36%) and India (26%), <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/rice/trade#:~:text=More%20than%2060%20percent%20of%20U.S.%20rice%20imports%20are%20aromatic,as%20those%20produced%20in%20Asia." target="_blank">according to USDA</a>.</p><p>Although most rice sold in the U.S. is domestically produced, nearly a third is imported, mainly jasmine rice from Thailand and basmati rice from India.</p><p><h3>Cheese</h3></p><p>Top sources: Italy, France, Spain and the Netherlands (all subject to 20% EU tariff), according to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/us-food-imports" target="_blank">USDA</a>. </p><p>Parmigiano-Reggiano, brie and Gouda could also see price rises.<br></p><p><h3>Nuts</h3></p><p>Top sources: Vietnam (46%), Côte d'Ivoire (21%), Brazil (10%), Thailand (36%), according to the <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/USA/year/2023/tradeflow/Imports/partner/ALL/product/080130#:~:text=United%20States%20imported%20Cashew%20nuts,7%2C475.10K%20%2C%201%2C291%2C110%20Kg)." target="_blank">World Bank</a>.</p><p>Cashews, pecans and macadamia nuts are likely to see the largest price increases.</p><p><h3>Chocolate</h3></p><p>Top source: Côte d'Ivoire (21%) and Ecuador (10%), according to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/us-food-imports" target="_blank">USDA</a>.</p><p>The Hershey Company, one of the largest U.S. importers of cocoa beans, <a href="https://www.thehersheycompany.com/en_us/home/sustainability/sustainability-focus-areas/responsible-sourcing/priority-ingredients-and-materials/cocoa-sourcing.html#:~:text=The%20cocoa%20used%20by%20our%20cocoa%20product,found%20on%20the%20interactive%20satellite%20map%20below." target="_blank">says</a> it sources its supply from Brazil, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Ghana, Indonesia, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea and Peru.</p><p>NPR reached out to Hershey, which makes Reese's Peanut Butter Cups and Kit Kat bars, among others, to inquire about future price increases. A spokesman for Hershey, Todd Scott, said the company could not comment because it is in an earnings window.</p><p>However, Lempert says the tariffs come on top of "<a href="/2025/02/12/nx-s1-5289034/chocolate-prices-valentines-day-cocoa-beans" target="_blank">serious increases</a> in cocoa beans for probably the past two or three years because of the weather and the political climate in … Africa."</p><p><h3>Olive oil</h3></p><p>Top sources: European Union (20%), particularly Spain, Italy and Greece.</p><p>"Olive oil prices have gone through the roof," Lempert says. "They're going to go even higher."</p> <hr> <h3>Transcript</h3> <p>SCOTT SIMON, HOST: <p><p> A trip to the supermarket has been a wallet-stretching experience for quite some time. Now economists warn that President Trump's latest import tariffs, set to go into effect on Wednesday, mean that groceries are likely to become even more expensive. NPR's Scott Neuman has been looking into this. Scott, thanks so much for being with us.<p><p>SCOTT NEUMAN, BYLINE: Good to be here.<p><p>SIMON: What food could see the biggest price increases?<p><p>NEUMAN: Seafood. The U.S. imports around 80% of the seafood we consume. That's fish, but also other things like shrimp and scallops. We get a lot of it from Asian countries that have high tariff rates, India with a 26% rate, and Indonesia with a 32% rate. So if these countries pass along to consumers even a portion of their higher costs, the price of seafood could skyrocket.<p><p>SIMON: And what else might be affected?<p><p>NEUMAN: Well, I spoke with food industry analyst Phil Lempert. He also edits a site called supermarketguru.com.<p><p>PHIL LEMPERT: I would estimate that probably almost half of the products in a supermarket have some issue that these tariffs are going to affect.<p><p>NEUMAN: So another item on my list is coffee. Something like 80% of the coffee consumed in the U.S. each year comes mostly from Brazil and Colombia. They only have 10% tariffs, but as most of us know, coffee prices are already high, and this might force us to rethink our morning routines. Then there's alcohol. The U.S. gets a lot of its imported beer from Mexico, the Netherlands, Ireland and Canada, and a lot of its wine from European Union countries that will now have a 20% tariff.<p><p>SIMON: And I guess it looks like a lot of Asian countries will face higher tariffs also.<p><p>NEUMAN: Right. We already mentioned seafood, but another major export from Asia is rice. About a third of the rice the U.S. consumes comes from there - jasmine rice from Thailand, which will have a 36% tariff, and basmati from India, which faces a 26% tax. Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor, says some minority communities that rely on imported food are probably going to be affected.<p><p>KENNETH ROGOFF: And I suspect Asian Americans particularly - but all of us - are going to face a big hit.<p><p>SIMON: Scott, do you have an idea of how much prices are going to rise because of the tariffs?<p><p>NEUMAN: It's too early to say. There are just too many factors at play. For example, you wouldn't immediately think that steel and aluminum tariffs on China would have any impact on groceries. But for canned goods like soup and vegetables, those cans are mostly made out of steel. And, of course, beer cans are mostly aluminum. Then there's palm oil. Indonesia, a leading supplier, will have a 32% tariff. Palm oil is used in everything from cooking oil and snacks to cosmetics and shampoo. Domestic suppliers, too, could see the higher cost of their foreign competition as an opportunity to raise their own prices.<p><p>SIMON: NPR correspondent Scott Neuman. Thanks so much.<p><p>NEUMAN: Thank you, Scott.<p> <hr/> <h3>CORRECTION</h3> <p>Apr. 4th, 2025</p> <p>An earlier version of this story incorrectly said<b> </b>that fruit, beef and seafood from Mexico and Canada would be hit by 25% tariffs. In fact, products and produce, including fruit, from Mexico and Canada covered under the <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement" target="_blank" link-data="{"cms.site.owner":{"_ref":"00000178-b770-d41c-a77c-f7f516b10000","_type":"ae3387cc-b875-31b7-b82d-63fd8d758c20"},"cms.content.publishDate":1743801368344,"cms.content.publishUser":{"_ref":"0000017b-e657-d2ed-abff-ffff23610000","_type":"6aa69ae1-35be-30dc-87e9-410da9e1cdcc"},"cms.content.updateDate":1743801368344,"cms.content.updateUser":{"_ref":"0000017b-e657-d2ed-abff-ffff23610000","_type":"6aa69ae1-35be-30dc-87e9-410da9e1cdcc"},"cms.directory.paths":[],"anchorable.showAnchor":false,"link":{"attributes":[],"cms.directory.paths":[],"linkText":"United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement","target":"NEW","attachSourceUrl":false,"url":"https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement","_id":"00000196-02a9-d0d9-a7b6-92bb35e40000","_type":"ff658216-e70f-39d0-b660-bdfe57a5599a"},"_id":"00000196-02a9-d0d9-a7b6-92bb35e30000","_type":"809caec9-30e2-3666-8b71-b32ddbffc288"}">United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement</a> are currently exempt from tariffs.</p> </div> </div> </article> </main> <div class="hr-line"></div> <nav> <p>Topics</p> <ul> <li><a href="/1001">News</a></li> <li><a href="/1008">Culture</a></li> <li><a href="/1039">Music</a></li> </ul> </nav> <footer> <nav class="lower-nav-container"> <li><a href="/614470770">Contact Us</a></li> <li><a href="/179876898">Terms of Use</a></li> <li><a href="/179881519">Permissions</a></li> <li><a href="/179878450">Privacy Policy</a></li> </nav> <p>&copy NPR</p> </footer> </body> </html>