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class="gcxkrt2"><h1 class="Autonomous weapon systems and military artificial intelligence (AI) applications report">Autonomous weapon systems and military artificial intelligence (AI) applications report</h1></div><aside class="gcxkrt4"><dl><dt>Updated</dt><dd>19 May 2022</dd></dl><dl><dt>Written by</dt><dd>Christian Ruhl</dd></dl><dt>Share</dt><dd><a href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https://www.founderspledge.com/research/autonomous-weapon-systems-and-military-artificial-intelligence-ai" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="1em" height="1em" class="_467ed80 _467ed81"><path fill="currentColor" d="M14 13.5h2.5l1-4H14v-2c0-1.03 0-2 2-2h1.5V2.14c-.326-.043-1.557-.14-2.857-.14C11.928 2 10 3.657 10 6.7v2.8H7v4h3V22h4z"></path></svg></a><a 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href="https://twitter.com/share?url=https://www.founderspledge.com/research/autonomous-weapon-systems-and-military-artificial-intelligence-ai&text=Autonomous%20weapon%20systems%20and%20military%20artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20applications%20report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="1em" height="1em" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 15 15" class="_467ed80 _467ed81"><desc>X Twitter Logo Streamline Icon: https://streamlinehq.com</desc><path fill="currentColor" fill-rule="evenodd" d="M3.125.625a2.5 2.5 0 0 0-2.5 2.5v8.75a2.5 2.5 0 0 0 2.5 2.5h8.75a2.5 2.5 0 0 0 2.5-2.5v-8.75a2.5 2.5 0 0 0-2.5-2.5zm-.209 2.188a.47.47 0 0 0-.21.72L6.213 8.19l-3.697 3.965-.028.033h1.28L6.787 8.95l2.32 3.08a.47.47 0 0 0 .211.156h2.764a.468.468 0 0 0 .21-.72L8.783 6.81l3.728-3.997h-1.282L8.21 6.05 5.89 2.97a.47.47 0 0 0-.211-.158zm6.8 8.467L4.02 3.72H5.28l5.697 7.56z" clip-rule="evenodd"></path></svg></a></dd></aside><div class="gcxkrt7"><figure class="wfcaa80 "><img alt="Illustrative image" loading="lazy" width="2048" height="1368" decoding="async" data-nimg="1" style="color:transparent" srcSet="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2F25289595468_956beca6d9_k_75b8763770.jpg&w=2048&q=75 1x, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2F25289595468_956beca6d9_k_75b8763770.jpg&w=3840&q=75 2x" src="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2F25289595468_956beca6d9_k_75b8763770.jpg&w=3840&q=75"/><figcaption><p>▲ Photo by U.S. Department of Defense on <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/39955793@N07/25289595468/">Flickr</a></p></figcaption></figure></div></header><section class="c2uphe0"><div class="_1uoxd9r0 _1uoxd9r5"><h3 class="_1uoxd9r1 ">Related recommendations</h3></div><div class="wsum660"><div class="wsum661"><div class="c2uphe2"><a class="c2uphe3" href="/research/berkeley-risk-and-security-lab"><h4>Berkeley Risk and Security Lab</h4><button class="_1ulm90d0 _1ulm90d3 _1ulm90df _1ulm90d2 undefined">Learn more<svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 20 21" width="1em" height="1em" class="_467ed80 _467ed81"><path stroke="currentColor" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" d="m6.817 17.094 6.367-6.626L6.817 3.76"></path></svg></button></a></div><div class="wsum662"></div></div></div></section><div class="_1uh06w0 ujunw60"><div class="ujunw63 ujunw62 undefined"><div class="ujunw6b ujunw6i ujunw6k"><h4>This is an executive summary of our investigation into autonomous weapon systems and military artificial intelligence (AI) applications</h4><p><a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">Read the full report</a></p></div> <p>The use and proliferation of autonomous weapon systems appears likely in the near future, but the risks of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled warfare are under-studied and under-funded. Autonomous weapons and military applications of AI more broadly (such as early-warning and decision-support systems) have the potential to increase the risk factors for a variety of issues, including great power war, nuclear stability, and AI safety. Several of these issues are potential pathways towards existential and global catastrophic risks. Autonomy in weapon systems therefore affects both the long-term future of the world and the lives of billions of people today.</p> <p>This report intends to advise philanthropic donors who wish to reduce the risk from autonomous weapon systems and from the military applications of AI more broadly. We argue that a key problem of AI-enabled military systems arises from strategic risks that affect the likelihood of great power conflict, nuclear war, and <a href="https://founderspledge.com/stories/existential-risk-executive-summary" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">risks from artificial general intelligence (AGI) </a>. These risks include the increased speed of decision-making in a world with autonomous weapons, automation bias, increased complexity leading to a higher risk of accidents and escalation, and the possibility of AI-related military competition and its implications for long-term AI safety.</p> <h3 id="beyond-killer-robots-strategic-risks" level="2" node="[object Object]">Beyond “Killer Robots”: Strategic Risks</h3> <p>Although <a href="https://www.hrw.org/topic/arms/killer-robots" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">“killer robots”</a> feature in the popular imagination, and some prominent organizations have taken up and promoted the cause of formal arms control through <a href="https://www.un.org/disarmament/the-convention-on-certain-conventional-weapons/background-on-laws-in-the-ccw/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">discussions at the UN</a>, autonomous weapons remain a neglected issue for three reasons. First, the largest organizations focus mostly on humanitarian issues, leaving strategic threats relatively neglected. Second, those who do study risks beyond <a href="https://autonomousweapons.org/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">“slaughterbots”</a> (like automation bias, strategic stability, etc.) are few and receive even less funding; there is a talent shortage and room for funding. Third, the most widely-advocated solution — formal treaty-based arms control or a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/robot-drone-ban.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">“killer robot ban”</a> — is not the most tractable solution. Thus, philanthropists have an opportunity to have an outsized impact in this space and reduce the long-term risks to humanity’s survival and flourishing.</p> <h3 id="pathways-to-risk" level="2" node="[object Object]">Pathways to Risk</h3> <p>We argue that autonomous weapon systems can act as a <a href="https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/climate-change-as-threat-multiplier_understanding-the-broader-nature-of-the-risk_briefer-252.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">“threat multiplier"</a>, activating pathways for a variety of risks as outlined in figure 1, below. These risks — like great power conflict and thermonuclear war — could lead to the deaths of millions or even billions of people, and in the worst cases, to the extinction of humanity or the unrecoverable loss of our potential. Our <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">report</a> dives into greater detail for each of the potential risks that autonomous weapons could pose to international security and the future of humanity.</p> <h3 id="the-autonomous-risk-landscape" level="3" node="[object Object]">The Autonomous Risk Landscape</h3> <p><img src="https://dkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net/Autonomous_Risk_Landscape_e079db877a.jpg" alt="The Autonomous Risk Landscape"/></p> <p>Orange = “flashy” problems; light green = “boring” (but neglected) problems; dark green = Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs) and existential threats. Source: author’s diagram based on literature reviewed in the full <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">report</a>. *= see Great Power Conflict <a href="https://founderspledge.com/stories/great-power-conflict" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" node="[object Object]">report</a>.</p> <h3 id="evaluating-interventions" level="2" node="[object Object]">Evaluating Interventions</h3> <p>In addition to outlining the risks from autonomous weapon systems and the military applications of AI, we also evaluate potential interventions to mitigate these risks. We argue that philanthropists can have an outsized impact in this space by following two guiding principles to choose their interventions:</p> <ol> <li><strong>Focus on strategic risks</strong>, including the effects of autonomous systems on nuclear stability.</li> <li><strong>Focus on key actors, rather than multilateral inclusiveness</strong>, and prioritize those states most likely to develop and use autonomous systems, possibly starting with bilateral dialogues.</li> </ol> <p>Using these guiding principles, we argue that effective philanthropists should focus not on a legally binding ban of autonomous weapons, but on researching strategic risks and on working on a set of confidence-building measures (CBMs), which have a track record of regulating militarily-useful technologies. Funding work related to this research and CBMs presents one of the best ways to have an impact on this important and neglected problem.</p></div></div><footer class="vtyop20"><hr class="vtyop21"/><h3 class="vtyop21">About the author</h3><div class="gevsx10 vtyop21"><div class="gevsx12"><img alt="Portrait" loading="lazy" decoding="async" data-nimg="fill" style="position:absolute;height:100%;width:100%;left:0;top:0;right:0;bottom:0;color:transparent" sizes="100vw" srcSet="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=640&q=75 640w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=750&q=75 750w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=828&q=75 828w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=1080&q=75 1080w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=1200&q=75 1200w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=1920&q=75 1920w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=2048&q=75 2048w, /_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=3840&q=75 3840w" src="/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net%2FRuhl_fcf56ba378.jpg&w=3840&q=75"/></div><div class="gevsx11"><h3>Christian Ruhl</h3><p><small>Global Catastrophic Risks Lead</small></p><p>Christian Ruhl is our Global Catastrophic Risks Lead based in Philadelphia. Before joining Founders Pledge in November 2021, Christian was the Global Order Program Manager at Perry World House, the University of Pennsylvania's global affairs think tank, where he managed the research theme on “The Future of the Global Order: Power, Technology, and Governance.” Before that, Christian studied on a Dr. Herchel Smith Fellowship at the University of Cambridge for two master’s degrees, one in History and Philosophy of Science and one in International Relations and Politics, with dissertations on early modern submarines and Cold War nuclear strategy. Christian received his BA from Williams College in 2017.</p></div></div></footer></article></main><noscript><img src="https://queue.simpleanalyticscdn.com/noscript.gif" alt="" referrerPolicy="no-referrer-when-downgrade"/></noscript><footer class="_1uh06w0 _1uh06w2 _1q6ej730"><div class="_1q6ej732 company"><a class="_1q6ej731" href="/"><svg viewBox="0 0 149 47" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M48.9609 3.35645H59.4436V5.87068H52.1077V10.9226H57.882V13.3656H52.1077V20.315H48.9609V3.35645Z" fill="currentColor"></path><path d="M60.0586 14.2439V14.0542C60.0586 10.2117 62.7796 7.65039 66.4239 7.65039C70.0446 7.65039 72.7656 10.1881 72.7656 13.983V14.1727C72.7656 18.0388 70.0446 20.5531 66.4003 20.5531C62.756 20.5531 60.0586 18.0152 60.0586 14.2439ZM69.8313 14.1964V14.0305C69.8313 11.469 68.5539 9.90344 66.4239 9.90344C64.294 9.90344 62.9929 11.4453 62.9929 14.0066V14.1964C62.9929 16.7343 64.2468 18.3234 66.4239 18.3234C68.5539 18.3234 69.8313 16.7343 69.8313 14.1964Z" 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_1uoxd9r5\",\"children\":[\"$\",\"h3\",null,{\"className\":\"_1uoxd9r1 \",\"children\":\"Related recommendations\"}]}],[\"$\",\"$L2f\",null,{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"div\",\"0\",{\"className\":\"c2uphe2\",\"children\":[\"$\",\"$L2c\",\"0\",{\"className\":\"c2uphe3\",\"href\":\"/research/berkeley-risk-and-security-lab\",\"children\":[\"$undefined\",[\"$\",\"h4\",null,{\"children\":\"Berkeley Risk and Security Lab\"}],[\"$\",\"$L30\",null,{\"size\":\"tiny\",\"icon\":\"chevron-right\",\"children\":\"Learn more\"}]]}]}]]}]]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"_1uh06w0 ujunw60\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"ujunw63 ujunw62 undefined\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"ujunw6b ujunw6i ujunw6k\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"h4\",\"0\",{\"children\":[\"This is an executive summary of our investigation into autonomous weapon systems and military artificial intelligence (AI) applications\"]}],[\"$\",\"p\",\"1\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"0\",{\"href\":\"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"Read the full report\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":3,\"column\":2,\"offset\":158},\"end\":{\"line\":3,\"column\":22,\"offset\":178}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":3,\"column\":1,\"offset\":157},\"end\":{\"line\":3,\"column\":121,\"offset\":277}}},\"children\":[\"Read the full report\"]}]]}]]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"2\",{\"children\":[\"The use and proliferation of autonomous weapon systems appears likely in the near future, but the risks of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled warfare are under-studied and under-funded. Autonomous weapons and military applications of AI more broadly (such as early-warning and decision-support systems) have the potential to increase the risk factors for a variety of issues, including great power war, nuclear stability, and AI safety. Several of these issues are potential pathways towards existential and global catastrophic risks. Autonomy in weapon systems therefore affects both the long-term future of the world and the lives of billions of people today.\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"4\",{\"children\":[\"This report intends to advise philanthropic donors who wish to reduce the risk from autonomous weapon systems and from the military applications of AI more broadly. We argue that a key problem of AI-enabled military systems arises from strategic risks that affect the likelihood of great power conflict, nuclear war, and \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"1\",{\"href\":\"https://founderspledge.com/stories/existential-risk-executive-summary\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://founderspledge.com/stories/existential-risk-executive-summary\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"risks from artificial general intelligence (AGI) \",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":8,\"column\":402,\"offset\":1349},\"end\":{\"line\":8,\"column\":451,\"offset\":1398}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":8,\"column\":322,\"offset\":1269},\"end\":{\"line\":8,\"column\":455,\"offset\":1402}}},\"children\":[\"risks from artificial general intelligence (AGI) \"]}],\". These risks include the increased speed of decision-making in a world with autonomous weapons, automation bias, increased complexity leading to a higher risk of accidents and escalation, and the possibility of AI-related military competition and its implications for long-term AI safety.\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"h3\",null,{\"id\":\"beyond-killer-robots-strategic-risks\",\"level\":2,\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"h2\",\"properties\":{},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"Beyond “Killer Robots”: Strategic Risks\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":10,\"column\":4,\"offset\":1696},\"end\":{\"line\":10,\"column\":43,\"offset\":1735}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":10,\"column\":1,\"offset\":1693},\"end\":{\"line\":10,\"column\":43,\"offset\":1735}}},\"children\":[\"Beyond “Killer Robots”: Strategic Risks\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"8\",{\"children\":[\"Although \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"1\",{\"href\":\"https://www.hrw.org/topic/arms/killer-robots\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://www.hrw.org/topic/arms/killer-robots\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"“killer robots”\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":65,\"offset\":1801},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":80,\"offset\":1816}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":10,\"offset\":1746},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":84,\"offset\":1820}}},\"children\":[\"“killer robots”\"]}],\" feature in the popular imagination, and some prominent organizations have taken up and promoted the cause of formal arms control through \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"3\",{\"href\":\"https://www.un.org/disarmament/the-convention-on-certain-conventional-weapons/background-on-laws-in-the-ccw/\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://www.un.org/disarmament/the-convention-on-certain-conventional-weapons/background-on-laws-in-the-ccw/\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"discussions at the UN\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":341,\"offset\":2077},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":362,\"offset\":2098}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":222,\"offset\":1958},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":366,\"offset\":2102}}},\"children\":[\"discussions at the UN\"]}],\", autonomous weapons remain a neglected issue for three reasons. First, the largest organizations focus mostly on humanitarian issues, leaving strategic threats relatively neglected. Second, those who do study risks beyond \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"5\",{\"href\":\"https://autonomousweapons.org/\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://autonomousweapons.org/\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"“slaughterbots”\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":630,\"offset\":2366},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":645,\"offset\":2381}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":589,\"offset\":2325},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":649,\"offset\":2385}}},\"children\":[\"“slaughterbots”\"]}],\" (like automation bias, strategic stability, etc.) are few and receive even less funding; there is a talent shortage and room for funding. Third, the most widely-advocated solution — formal treaty-based arms control or a \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"7\",{\"href\":\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/robot-drone-ban.html\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/17/world/robot-drone-ban.html\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"“killer robot ban”\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":942,\"offset\":2678},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":960,\"offset\":2696}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":870,\"offset\":2606},\"end\":{\"line\":12,\"column\":964,\"offset\":2700}}},\"children\":[\"“killer robot ban”\"]}],\" — is not the most tractable solution. Thus, philanthropists have an opportunity to have an outsized impact in this space and reduce the long-term risks to humanity’s survival and flourishing.\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"h3\",null,{\"id\":\"pathways-to-risk\",\"level\":2,\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"h2\",\"properties\":{},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"Pathways to Risk\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":14,\"column\":4,\"offset\":2897},\"end\":{\"line\":14,\"column\":20,\"offset\":2913}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":14,\"column\":1,\"offset\":2894},\"end\":{\"line\":14,\"column\":20,\"offset\":2913}}},\"children\":[\"Pathways to Risk\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"12\",{\"children\":[\"We argue that autonomous weapon systems can act as a \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"1\",{\"href\":\"https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/climate-change-as-threat-multiplier_understanding-the-broader-nature-of-the-risk_briefer-252.pdf\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/climate-change-as-threat-multiplier_understanding-the-broader-nature-of-the-risk_briefer-252.pdf\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"“threat multiplier\\\"\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":219,\"offset\":3133},\"end\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":238,\"offset\":3152}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":54,\"offset\":2968},\"end\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":242,\"offset\":3156}}},\"children\":[\"“threat multiplier\\\"\"]}],\", activating pathways for a variety of risks as outlined in figure 1, below. These risks — like great power conflict and thermonuclear war — could lead to the deaths of millions or even billions of people, and in the worst cases, to the extinction of humanity or the unrecoverable loss of our potential. Our \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"3\",{\"href\":\"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"report\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":657,\"offset\":3571},\"end\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":663,\"offset\":3577}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":550,\"offset\":3464},\"end\":{\"line\":16,\"column\":667,\"offset\":3581}}},\"children\":[\"report\"]}],\" dives into greater detail for each of the potential risks that autonomous weapons could pose to international security and the future of humanity.\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"h3\",null,{\"id\":\"the-autonomous-risk-landscape\",\"level\":3,\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"h3\",\"properties\":{},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"The Autonomous Risk Landscape\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":18,\"column\":5,\"offset\":3734},\"end\":{\"line\":18,\"column\":34,\"offset\":3763}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":18,\"column\":1,\"offset\":3730},\"end\":{\"line\":18,\"column\":34,\"offset\":3763}}},\"children\":[\"The Autonomous Risk Landscape\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"16\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"img\",\"0\",{\"src\":\"https://dkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net/Autonomous_Risk_Landscape_e079db877a.jpg\",\"alt\":\"The Autonomous Risk Landscape\"}]]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"18\",{\"children\":[\"Orange = “flashy” problems; light green = “boring” (but neglected) problems; dark green = Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs) and existential threats. Source: author’s diagram based on literature reviewed in the full \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"1\",{\"href\":\"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://docs.google.com/document/d/1hZfuxAp4yhsjmYXBNHtHZxeYabVK1kwalTl711cyW0A/edit?usp=sharing\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"report\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":322,\"offset\":4199},\"end\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":328,\"offset\":4205}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":215,\"offset\":4092},\"end\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":332,\"offset\":4209}}},\"children\":[\"report\"]}],\". *= see Great Power Conflict \",[\"$\",\"$L31\",\"3\",{\"href\":\"https://founderspledge.com/stories/great-power-conflict\",\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"a\",\"properties\":{\"href\":\"https://founderspledge.com/stories/great-power-conflict\"},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"report\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":429,\"offset\":4306},\"end\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":435,\"offset\":4312}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":363,\"offset\":4240},\"end\":{\"line\":22,\"column\":439,\"offset\":4316}}},\"children\":[\"report\"]}],\".\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"h3\",null,{\"id\":\"evaluating-interventions\",\"level\":2,\"node\":{\"type\":\"element\",\"tagName\":\"h2\",\"properties\":{},\"children\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"value\":\"Evaluating Interventions\",\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":24,\"column\":4,\"offset\":4322},\"end\":{\"line\":24,\"column\":28,\"offset\":4346}}}],\"position\":{\"start\":{\"line\":24,\"column\":1,\"offset\":4319},\"end\":{\"line\":24,\"column\":28,\"offset\":4346}}},\"children\":[\"Evaluating Interventions\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"22\",{\"children\":[\"In addition to outlining the risks from autonomous weapon systems and the military applications of AI, we also evaluate potential interventions to mitigate these risks. We argue that philanthropists can have an outsized impact in this space by following two guiding principles to choose their interventions:\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"ol\",\"24\",{\"children\":[\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"li\",\"1\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"strong\",\"0\",{\"children\":[\"Focus on strategic risks\"]}],\", including the effects of autonomous systems on nuclear stability.\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"li\",\"3\",{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"strong\",\"0\",{\"children\":[\"Focus on key actors, rather than multilateral inclusiveness\"]}],\", and prioritize those states most likely to develop and use autonomous systems, possibly starting with bilateral dialogues.\"]}],\"\\n\"]}],\"\\n\",[\"$\",\"p\",\"26\",{\"children\":[\"Using these guiding principles, we argue that effective philanthropists should focus not on a legally binding ban of autonomous weapons, but on researching strategic risks and on working on a set of confidence-building measures (CBMs), which have a track record of regulating militarily-useful technologies. Funding work related to this research and CBMs presents one of the best ways to have an impact on this important and neglected problem.\"]}]]}],[\"$\",\"$L32\",null,{\"data\":[{\"level\":2,\"id\":\"beyond-killer-robots-strategic-risks\",\"title\":\"Beyond “Killer Robots”: Strategic Risks\"},{\"level\":2,\"id\":\"pathways-to-risk\",\"title\":\"Pathways to Risk\"},{\"level\":3,\"id\":\"the-autonomous-risk-landscape\",\"title\":\"The Autonomous Risk Landscape\"},{\"level\":2,\"id\":\"evaluating-interventions\",\"title\":\"Evaluating Interventions\"}]}]]}],[\"$\",\"footer\",null,{\"className\":\"vtyop20\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"hr\",null,{\"className\":\"vtyop21\"}],[\"$\",\"h3\",null,{\"className\":\"vtyop21\",\"children\":[\"About the author\",\"\"]}],[[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"gevsx10 vtyop21\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"gevsx12\",\"children\":[\"$\",\"$L33\",null,{\"src\":\"https://dkqj4hmn5mktp.cloudfront.net/Ruhl_fcf56ba378.jpg\",\"alt\":\"Portrait\",\"fill\":true}]}],[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"gevsx11\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"h3\",null,{\"children\":\"Christian Ruhl\"}],[\"$\",\"p\",null,{\"children\":[\"$\",\"small\",null,{\"children\":\"Global Catastrophic Risks Lead\"}]}],[[\"$\",\"p\",\"0\",{\"children\":[\"Christian Ruhl is our Global Catastrophic Risks Lead based in Philadelphia. Before joining Founders Pledge in November 2021, Christian was the Global Order Program Manager at Perry World House, the University of Pennsylvania's global affairs think tank, where he managed the research theme on “The Future of the Global Order: Power, Technology, and Governance.” Before that, Christian studied on a Dr. Herchel Smith Fellowship at the University of Cambridge for two master’s degrees, one in History and Philosophy of Science and one in International Relations and Politics, with dissertations on early modern submarines and Cold War nuclear strategy. Christian received his BA from Williams College in 2017.\"]}]]]}]]}]]]}]]}]]\n"])</script><script>self.__next_f.push([1,"26:[\"$\",\"html\",null,{\"lang\":\"en\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"head\",null,{\"children\":[[\"$\",\"link\",null,{\"rel\":\"apple-touch-icon\",\"sizes\":\"180x180\",\"href\":\"/favicons/apple-touch-icon.png\"}],[\"$\",\"link\",null,{\"rel\":\"icon\",\"type\":\"image/png\",\"sizes\":\"32x32\",\"href\":\"/favicons/favicon-32x32.png\"}],[\"$\",\"link\",null,{\"rel\":\"icon\",\"type\":\"image/png\",\"sizes\":\"16x16\",\"href\":\"/favicons/favicon-16x16.png\"}],[\"$\",\"link\",null,{\"rel\":\"manifest\",\"href\":\"/favicons/site.webmanifest\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"body\",null,{\"className\":\"_6328ha0\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"header\",null,{\"className\":\"_13issmp0\",\"children\":[null,[\"$\",\"div\",null,{\"className\":\"p7arph0\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",null,{\"className\":\"p7arph2\",\"children\":\"Rapid Response Fund\"}],\" • filling critical time-sensitive funding gaps created by the suspension of foreign aid •\",[\"$\",\"$L2c\",null,{\"href\":\"/funds/rapid-response-fund\",\"className\":\"p7arph1\",\"children\":\"Donate Now\"}]]}],[\"$\",\"$L34\",null,{\"navigation\":[{\"id\":4,\"title\":\"Research \u0026 Funds\",\"menuAttached\":false,\"order\":1,\"path\":\"/research\",\"type\":\"WRAPPER\",\"uiRouterKey\":\"research-2\",\"slug\":\"research-2\",\"external\":false,\"items\":[{\"id\":5,\"title\":\"Our methodology\",\"menuAttached\":false,\"order\":1,\"path\":\"/research/our-methodology\",\"type\":\"INTERNAL\",\"uiRouterKey\":\"our-methodology-1\",\"slug\":\"research-our-methodology\",\"external\":false,\"related\":{\"id\":2,\"title\":\"Our methodology\",\"slug\":\"our-methodology\",\"description\":null,\"createdAt\":\"2023-05-16T10:31:47.800Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2024-08-05T16:51:50.318Z\",\"publishedAt\":\"2023-05-16T10:31:48.306Z\",\"subtitle\":\"How can we do the most good possible?\",\"wideVisual\":true,\"narrowPage\":null,\"subtitleColor\":null,\"__contentType\":\"api::page.page\",\"navigationItemId\":5,\"__templateName\":\"Generic\"},\"items\":[],\"hasAnimation\":true},{\"id\":6,\"title\":\"Research database\",\"menuAttached\":false,\"order\":2,\"path\":\"/research/research\",\"type\":\"WRAPPER\",\"uiRouterKey\":\"research-database\",\"slug\":\"research-research\",\"external\":false,\"items\":[],\"hasAnimation\":true},{\"id\":7,\"title\":\"Giving recommendations\",\"menuAttached\":false,\"order\":3,\"path\":\"/research/recommendations\",\"type\":\"WRAPPER\",\"uiRouterKey\":\"giving-recommendations\",\"slug\":\"research-recommendations\",\"external\":false,\"items\":[],\"hasAnimation\":true},{\"id\":8,\"title\":\"About our Funds\",\"menuAttached\":false,\"order\":4,\"path\":\"/research/funds\",\"type\":\"WRAPPER\",\"uiRouterKey\":\"about-our-funds\",\"slug\":\"research-funds\",\"external\":false,\"items\":[],\"hasAnimation\":false},{\"id\":88,\"title\":\"Climate Fund\",\"menuAttached\":false,\"order\":5,\"path\":\"/research/funds/climate-fund\",\"type\":\"WRAPPER\",\"uiRouterKey\":\"climate-fund-2\",\"slug\":\"research-funds-climate-fund\",\"external\":false,\"items\":[{\"id\":90,\"title\":\"About\",\"menuAttached\":false,\"order\":1,\"path\":\"/research/funds/climate-fund/about\",\"type\":\"INTERNAL\",\"uiRouterKey\":\"about-3\",\"slug\":\"research-funds-climate-fund-about\",\"external\":false,\"related\":{\"id\":70,\"title\":\"Climate Fund\",\"slug\":\"climate-fund\",\"createdAt\":\"2024-12-18T16:57:51.988Z\",\"updatedAt\":\"2025-01-31T15:50:59.697Z\",\"publishedAt\":\"2025-01-14T14:21:56.549Z\",\"details\":null,\"fundButtonLabel\":null,\"fundButtonLink\":null,\"buttonLabel\":null,\"buttonLink\":null,\"subtitle\":\"Become a high-impact climate philanthropist\",\"description\":\"You donate. 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