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class="firstHeading mw-first-heading"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Differential technological development</span></h1> <div id="p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown mw-portlet mw-portlet-lang" > <input type="checkbox" id="p-lang-btn-checkbox" role="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-event-name="ui.dropdown-p-lang-btn" class="vector-dropdown-checkbox mw-interlanguage-selector" aria-label="Go to an article in another language. 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href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citing_sources" title="Wikipedia:Citing sources">citations</a> to <a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Identifying_and_using_independent_sources" class="mw-redirect" title="Wikipedia:Identifying and using independent sources">reliable, independent, third-party sources</a>.</span> <span class="date-container"><i>(<span class="date">October 2024</span>)</i></span><span class="hide-when-compact"><i> (<small><a href="/wiki/Help:Maintenance_template_removal" title="Help:Maintenance template removal">Learn how and when to remove this message</a></small>)</i></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table> <p><b>Differential technological development</b> is a strategy of technology governance aiming to decrease risks from <a href="/wiki/Emerging_technologies" title="Emerging technologies">emerging technologies</a> by influencing the sequence in which they are developed. On this strategy, societies would strive to delay the development of harmful technologies and their applications, while accelerating the development of beneficial technologies, especially those that offer protection against the harmful ones.<sup id="cite_ref-Bostrom_2002_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Bostrom_2002-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <meta property="mw:PageProp/toc" /> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="History_of_the_idea">History of the idea</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Differential_technological_development&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: History of the idea"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p>Differential technological development was initially proposed by philosopher <a href="/wiki/Nick_Bostrom" title="Nick Bostrom">Nick Bostrom</a> in 2002<sup id="cite_ref-Bostrom_2002_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Bostrom_2002-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and he applied the idea to the governance of artificial intelligence in his 2014 book <a href="/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies" title="Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies">Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The strategy was also endorsed by philosopher <a href="/wiki/Toby_Ord" title="Toby Ord">Toby Ord</a> in his 2020 book <a href="/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity" title="The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity">The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity</a>, who writes that "While it may be too difficult to prevent the development of a risky technology, we may be able to reduce <a href="/wiki/Existential_risk" class="mw-redirect" title="Existential risk">existential risk</a> by speeding up the development of protective technologies relative to dangerous ones."<sup id="cite_ref-:0_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Informal_discussion">Informal discussion</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Differential_technological_development&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Informal discussion"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <p><a href="/wiki/Paul_Christiano_(researcher)" title="Paul Christiano (researcher)">Paul Christiano</a> believes that while accelerating technological progress appears to be one of the best ways to improve human welfare in the next few decades, a faster rate of growth cannot be equally important for the far future because growth must eventually saturate due to physical limits. Hence, from the perspective of the far future, differential technological development appears more crucial.<sup id="cite_ref-Christiano2014_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Christiano2014-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p><p>Inspired by Bostrom's proposal, <a href="/wiki/Luke_Muehlhauser" class="mw-redirect" title="Luke Muehlhauser">Luke Muehlhauser</a> and <a href="/wiki/Center_for_Applied_Rationality" title="Center for Applied Rationality">Anna Salamon</a> suggested a more general project of "differential intellectual progress", in which society advances its wisdom, philosophical sophistication, and understanding of risks faster than its technological power.<sup id="cite_ref-Muehlhauser2012_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Muehlhauser2012-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Muehlhauser2013_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Muehlhauser2013-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Brian Tomasik has expanded on this notion.<sup id="cite_ref-Tomasik2013_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Tomasik2013-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> </p> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=Differential_technological_development&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: See also"><span>edit</span></a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></div> <ul><li><a href="/wiki/Existential_risk" class="mw-redirect" title="Existential risk">Existential risk</a></li></ul> <div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a 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.cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:none;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{color:var(--color-error,#d33)}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#085;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right{padding-right:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .citation .mw-selflink{font-weight:inherit}@media screen{.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}html.skin-theme-clientpref-night .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}@media screen and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){html.skin-theme-clientpref-os .mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{color:#18911f}}</style><cite id="CITEREFBostrom,_Nick2002" class="citation journal cs1"><a href="/wiki/Nick_Bostrom" title="Nick Bostrom">Bostrom, Nick</a> (2002). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html">"Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios"</a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Existential+Risks%3A+Analyzing+Human+Extinction+Scenarios&rft.date=2002&rft.au=Bostrom%2C+Nick&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nickbostrom.com%2Fexistential%2Frisks.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ADifferential+technological+development" class="Z3988"></span> <span class="cs1-visible-error citation-comment"><code class="cs1-code">{{<a href="/wiki/Template:Cite_journal" title="Template:Cite journal">cite journal</a>}}</code>: </span><span class="cs1-visible-error citation-comment">Cite journal requires <code class="cs1-code">|journal=</code> (<a href="/wiki/Help:CS1_errors#missing_periodical" title="Help:CS1 errors">help</a>)</span> 9 Journal of Evolution and Technology <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html">Jetpress</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:827452c3-fcba-41b8-86b0-407293e6617c">Oxford Research Archive</a></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-:0-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:0_2-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:0_2-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFOrd2020" class="citation book cs1">Ord, Toby (2020). <i>The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity</i>. United Kingdom: <a href="/wiki/Bloomsbury_Publishing" title="Bloomsbury Publishing">Bloomsbury Publishing</a>. p. 200. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-1526600219" title="Special:BookSources/978-1526600219"><bdi>978-1526600219</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Precipice%3A+Existential+Risk+and+the+Future+of+Humanity&rft.place=United+Kingdom&rft.pages=200&rft.pub=Bloomsbury+Publishing&rft.date=2020&rft.isbn=978-1526600219&rft.aulast=Ord&rft.aufirst=Toby&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ADifferential+technological+development" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFBostrom2014" class="citation book cs1">Bostrom, Nick (2014). <i>Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies</i>. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 229–237. <a href="/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <a href="/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0199678112" title="Special:BookSources/978-0199678112"><bdi>978-0199678112</bdi></a>.</cite><span title="ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Superintelligence%3A+Paths%2C+Dangers%2C+Strategies&rft.place=Oxford&rft.pages=229-237&rft.pub=Oxford+University+Press&rft.date=2014&rft.isbn=978-0199678112&rft.aulast=Bostrom&rft.aufirst=Nick&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ADifferential+technological+development" class="Z3988"></span></span> </li> <li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222"><cite id="CITEREFPurtill2020" class="citation magazine cs1">Purtill, Corinne (21 November 2020). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-close-is-humanity-to-the-edge">"How Close Is Humanity to the Edge?"</a>. <i>The New Yorker</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. 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Eric Drexler">K. Eric Drexler</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Robin_Hanson" title="Robin Hanson">Robin Hanson</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Toby_Ord" title="Toby Ord">Toby Ord</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Anders_Sandberg" title="Anders Sandberg">Anders Sandberg</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Rebecca_Roache" title="Rebecca Roache">Rebecca Roache</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Concepts</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><a class="mw-selflink selflink">Differential technological development</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk" title="Global catastrophic risk">Global catastrophic risk</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Great_Filter" title="Great Filter">Great Filter</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Pascal%27s_mugging" title="Pascal's mugging">Pascal's mugging</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Reversal_test" title="Reversal test">Reversal test</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-indication_assumption" class="mw-redirect" title="Self-indication assumption">Self-indication assumption</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Self-sampling_assumption" class="mw-redirect" title="Self-sampling assumption">Self-sampling assumption</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Simulation_hypothesis" title="Simulation hypothesis">Simulation hypothesis</a></li> <li><a href="/wiki/Singleton_(global_governance)" title="Singleton (global governance)">Singleton</a></li></ul> </div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Works</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em"> <ul><li><i><a href="/wiki/Anthropic_Bias_(book)" class="mw-redirect" title="Anthropic Bias (book)">Anthropic Bias</a></i></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Global_Catastrophic_Risks_(book)" title="Global Catastrophic Risks (book)">Global Catastrophic Risks</a></i></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Human_Enhancement_(book)" class="mw-redirect" title="Human Enhancement (book)">Human Enhancement</a></i></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/The_Precipice:_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity" title="The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity">The Precipice</a></i></li> <li><i><a href="/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies" title="Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies">Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies</a></i></li></ul> </div></td></tr></tbody></table></div> <div class="navbox-styles"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1129693374"><link rel="mw-deduplicated-inline-style" href="mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1236075235"></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Emerging_technologies" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2" style="text-align: 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