Climate change is driving the rise in dengue cases

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aria-label="breadcrumbs" class="rank-math-breadcrumb"><p><a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com">Cosmos</a><span class="separator"> » </span><a href="/health/body-and-mind/">Body and Mind</a></p></nav> <section class="article-container cols-4 md-cols-1 cols-gap-1 padding-bottom-4"> <article class="col col-span-3 post-316432 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-body-and-mind category-climate category-earth category-health category-news tag-climate-change tag-dengue tag-mosquito"> <header class="rows rows-gap"> <h1 class="entry-title row">Climate change is driving the rise in dengue cases</h1> <div class="row primary-image has-featured-image " data-featured-image="GettyImages-617715262_1200.jpg"> </div> </header> <div class="entry-content cols-6 md-cols-1 cols-gap-1 margin-top-1"> <div class="content-left-sidebar cols-1 col"> <section class="contributors md-cols-1 rows-gap"> <div class="row post-date"> <span class="published-date">November 20, 2024</span> </div> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/imma-perfetto/" class="author row md-hide"> <img src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCA3MzAgNzMwIiB3aWR0aD0iNzMwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjczMCIgZGF0YS11PSIlMkZ3cC1jb250ZW50JTJGdXBsb2FkcyUyRjIwMjIlMkYxMSUyRmltbWEuanBnIiBkYXRhLXc9IjczMCIgZGF0YS1oPSI3MzAiIGRhdGEtYmlwPSIiPjwvc3ZnPg==" data-spai="1" alt="Imma Perfetto" width="200" /><noscript data-spai="1"><img src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/imma.jpg" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Imma Perfetto" width="200" /></noscript> <div class="bio"> <h3>Imma Perfetto</h3> <p>Cosmos science journalist</p> </div> </a> <div id="author-name" class="hide"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/imma-perfetto/" class="bio"> By Imma Perfetto </a> </div> <div class="favourite__wrapper row cols"> <button class="showDialog simplefavorite-button" aria-label="Favourite button"> </button> </div> </section> </div> <div class="primary-content cols-1 col-span-5 col"> <div class="flexible-content "> <div class="copy"> <p>New research has found at least 257 million people now live in places where climate warming could cause dengue incidence to double in the next 25 years in Asia and the Americas</p> <p>Mild cases of dengue may be asymptomatic or cause fever and flu-like symptoms. Severe cases can cause serious bleeding, a sudden drop in blood pressure (shock), and death. While symptoms can be managed, there is no treatment for the viral infection, <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/project-to-eliminate-dengue-extended/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">but major steps are being taken to reduce the problem.</a></p> <p>A study, which was <a href="https://astmhpressroom.wordpress.com/dengue_climate/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">presented last week</a> in New Orleans at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene and is yet to be peer reviewed, found global warming due to climate change is responsible for 19% of the current dengue burden.</p> <p>Under the <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">IPCC’s high emissions scenario</a> (SSP3-7.0), the researchers expect dengue burden to increase by 61% on average and to more than double in some cooler regions by 2050.</p> <p>But they estimate that mitigating carbon emissions under the most optimistic emissions scenario (SSP1- 2.6) would reduce this increase in dengue by 18%.</p> <div class="in-content-area related-box-wrapper content-third content-right margin-bottom-1"> <div class="gradient-title">Read More</div> <ul class="related-box article-listing"> <li class="cols"> <div class="article article-post"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/project-to-eliminate-dengue-extended/" class="thumbnail ar-16-9" aria-label="Article link"> <span data-spai-bg-on="1" class="image" style="background-image: url(data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAxMjAwIDc2OSIgd2lkdGg9IjEyMDAiIGhlaWdodD0iNzY5IiBkYXRhLXU9Imh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGY29zbW9zbWFnYXppbmUuY29tJTJGd3AtY29udGVudCUyRnVwbG9hZHMlMkYyMDI0JTJGMDQlMkZWYW51YXR1XzIwMTgwNzI0XzM2LmpwZyIgZGF0YS13PSIxMjAwIiBkYXRhLWg9Ijc2OSIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+)"></span> </a> <div class="article-content has-very-light-grey-background-color"> <a href="/health/"> <span class="category health-color"> Health </span> </a> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/project-to-eliminate-dengue-extended/"> <h3>Project which ‘eliminates’ dengue extended to 3 more Pacific island nations</h3> </a> </div> </div> </li> </ul> </div> <p>Dr Erin Mordecai, an infectious disease ecologist at Stanford University in the US and senior author of the study, says: “We looked at data on dengue incidence and climate variation across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas and found that there is a clear and direct relationship between rising temperatures and rising infections.”</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i0p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>The team looked at other factors that can affect dengue infection rates, such as rainfall patterns, seasonal changes, virus types, economic shocks and population density, to ensure there was a distinct temperature effect.</p> <a href="https://link.cosmosmagazine.com/OP59" class="newsletter-cta" data-device="mobile"> <img decoding="async" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAzMDAgMjUwIiB3aWR0aD0iMzAwIiBoZWlnaHQ9IjI1MCIgZGF0YS11PSIlMkZ3cC1jb250ZW50JTJGdXBsb2FkcyUyRjIwMjQlMkYwMyUyRldlZWtseS1DYXRjaHVwLTMwMHgyNTAtMS5wbmciIGRhdGEtdz0iMzAwIiBkYXRhLWg9IjI1MCIgZGF0YS1iaXA9IiI+PC9zdmc+" data-spai="1" alt="Newsletter" title="climate change is driving the rise in dengue cases 1"><noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Weekly-Catchup-300x250-1.png" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Newsletter" title="climate change is driving the rise in dengue cases 1"></noscript> </a> <p>“It’s evidence that climate change already has become a significant threat to human health and, for dengue in particular, our data suggests the impact could get much worse,” says Mordecai.</p> <p>As of October 2024, countries in the Americas alone have recorded almost 12 million dengue cases, compared to 4.6 million in 2023.</p> <p>The mosquitoes that spread dengue, <em>Aedes aegypti</em> and <em>Aedes albopictus</em>, produce increasing amounts of dengue virus particles from temperatures of about 20°C and peaking at about 28°C.</p> <p>This means that dengue-endemic areas now entering the temperature range, such as parts of Peru, Mexico, Bolivia and Brazil, could face the greatest future risks, with infections over the next few decades rising by as much as 150% to 200%.</p> <div class="advert ad-in-content ad-mobile auh-250"><div id="adn-00000000001fc2ca-i1p0" style="display: none"></div></div> <p>With global climate models predicting that temperatures will continue to increase even with large reductions in emissions, the researchers found that 17 of the 21 countries studied still would see climate-driven increases in dengue even under the most optimistic 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Climate change is driving the rise in dengue cases