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<p>与此同时，鉴于台积电曾在6月警告称，资本支出可能会处于320亿-360亿美元年度指引的低端，分析师对其资本支出亦转谨慎。彭博汇总的预估均值接近300亿美元。虽然削减资本支出通常被视为积极而审慎的成本管理工具，但分析师表示，最近的削减显示出更长时期内对芯片需求的悲观情绪以及对复甦周期被拉长的担忧。</p> <p>高盛集团最近将台积电明年的资本支出预估下调逾20%，至250亿美元，因为担心台积电可能会推迟海外产能扩张计划。这一规模将是疫情开始以来的最低水平。</p> <p>彭博数据显示，台积电的12个月盈利预测也从去年10月的高点下修约8%，而一项亚太整体指标则基本持平。</p> <p>眼下的部分问题在于早些时候对台积电尖端技术3纳米芯片的乐观情绪。该产品去年12月量产，被视为一项技术突破，有望彻底改写从苹果公司的iPhone到英伟达的AI生成器在内的一切。</p> <p>但是，由于消费需求疲软，这一美好前景遭遇了一些挫折。本月早些时候，台积电据报告知主要供应商推迟高端芯片制造设备的交付。摩根大通称，英伟达、Advanced Micro Devices Inc.和高通甚至可能把他们的芯片订单推迟到2025年。</p> <p>花旗集团分析师表示，宏观经济疲软的情况下，鉴于需求无法恢复到疫情前的水平，「我们确实预计复甦可能需要更长时间，」Laura Chen最近在报告中写道。</p> <p>不过，台积电仍有许多积极因素。该公司二季度的市场占有率稳定在59%，其在芯片制造领域占据领导地位，仍具吸引力。</p> <p>分析师对台积电的评级仍高，彭博数据显示，没有分析师予其卖出评级，12个月平均目标价较前收盘价高出24%。作为辉达和AMD等公司的主要代工企业，只要其下月发布的第三季度财报显示其AI相关业务有惊喜，就有可能刺激买盘重燃。</p> <p>不过，在整体经济复甦之前，交易员可能基本上会保持观望。瑞穗证券亚洲分析师Kevin Wang称，投资者可能会对台积电客户的库存调整时间长于预期变得更加谨慎。「由于终端需求疲软，我们现在预计这种调整将延续到明年第一季度甚至是第二季度，」他补充道。</p> <p>来源：CINNOResearch</p></div> </div> <div class="award"><div 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