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Mysteel解读：聚焦钢铁产业数据（2025年3月20日）——本周五大钢材品种供需双增，库存降幅扩大，基本面进一步边际好转-我的钢铁网
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<p><strong>供应方面，本周五大钢材品种供应865.42万吨，周环比增12.21万吨，增幅为1.4%。</strong>受需求弱预期的压制，钢厂利润有所收窄，致使其增产动力边际走弱，因此产量增幅较上周收窄；本周五大钢材<strong>总库存1788.09万吨，周环比降41.53万吨，降幅为2.3%。</strong>本周五大品种总库存降幅扩大，主要由于天气好转，以及低价成交的驱动，需求动能进一步释放；<strong>消费方面，本周五大品种周度表观消费量为906.95万吨，环比增2.6%：其中建材消费增5.5%，板材消费增1.0%。</strong>本周五大钢材品种中建材消费增幅较好于板材，主因在于天气好转后，长材需求释放较大，而板材需求已接近去年同期水平，进一步增量有限。总体来看，本周钢材市场呈现供需双增的局面，库存去库程度进一步增强，反映需求仍在恢复中，尤其是建材需求的反弹较明显。</p> <p align="left"><strong>【下周展望】</strong></p> <p>供应方面，目前钢材利润仍然存在，因此短期钢厂生产积极性或将保持，那么预计钢材产量有望继续上升；需求方面，随着天气进一步趋暖，长材需求有望进一步释放；而板材需求受出口压制的影响，增量空间不明显。库存方面，目前钢材库存处于去库周期的前期，未来随着旺季特征进一步显化，那么钢材库存有望保持去库。预计短期内钢材受到供需基本面边际好转，以及偏低估值下的抄底行为推动，价格走势短期或呈现反弹的格局。</p> <p align="left"><strong>【重要关注】</strong></p> <p><strong>1</strong><strong>、天气：</strong>预计3月20日至23日，青藏高原东部和西南地区多阴雨雪天气，青海东南部、西藏东部、川西高原、云南西北部和东北部、贵州西北部等地有小到中雪或雨夹雪，其中，西藏东部和川西高原等地局地有大雪或暴雪；西藏东南部和云南西北部等地的部分地区有中雨，局地大雨。</p> <p><strong>2</strong><strong>、宏观：</strong><strong>国内：</strong>1-2 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%，增速较去年全年加快 0.1 个百分点；社会消费品零售总额 83731 亿元，同比增长 4.0%，增速较去年全年加快 0.5 个百分点；全国固定资产投资同比增长 4.1%，增速加快 0.9 个百分点；新增人民币贷款 6.14 万亿元，社融规模增量 9.29 万亿元，M2 同比增长 7%；<strong>海外：</strong>2 月 美国CPI 同比增长 2.8%，低于预期的 2.9% 和前值 3.0%，结束连续四个月的上行趋势；环比增长 0.2%；核心 CPI 同比增长 3.1%，低于前值 3.3%，环比增长 0.2%。通胀回落主要受食品、能源及超级核心服务价格涨幅放缓推动。同日公布的2 月 PPI 同比下降 0.1%，环比持平，进一步缓解市场对滞胀的担忧。</p> <p><strong>3</strong><strong>、<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1001-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>水泥</a>&<a href='https://m.100njz.com/market/p-968-----1002-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>混凝土</a>：</strong><strong>水泥：</strong>3月12日-3月18日，本周全国水泥出库量247万吨，环比上升11.7%，年同比下降21.2%；基建水泥直供量147万吨，环比上升8.9%，年同比上升21.5%；<strong>混凝土：</strong>3月12日-3月18日，百年建筑调研国内506家混凝土搅拌站产能利用率为4.58%，周环比提升1.46个百分点；同比提升0.18个百分点。506家混凝土搅拌站发运量为91.83万方，周环比增加46.76%，同比增加4.23%。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 133.761px;" src="https://img07.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/20/1743571.png" width="600" height="134" /></p> <p>据<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>Mysteel</a>统计，螺纹方面，本周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010101-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>螺纹钢</a>产量小幅减少，合计减量0.89万吨。复产钢厂主要集中在新疆、山西等省，以高炉企业为主，但由于河南、湖北部分钢厂停产以及福建钢厂减产，长流程产量整体增加有限。短流程方面，随着华东、华中少数钢厂生产时间减少，产量略有下降；热卷方面，本周<a href='https://m.mysteel.com/market/p-968-----010103-0--------1.html' target='_blank' style='color:#3861ab'>热轧</a>产量上升，钢厂实际产量为324.33吨，周环比上升5.68万吨，增幅集中在华北地区，主要是因为CZZT复产。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 81.4679px;" src="https://img01.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/20/1743572.png" width="600" height="81" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;">据Mysteel统计，螺纹钢方面，本周厂库继续去化，环比减少6.74万吨。分区域看，华东及南方地区去库速度有所加快，厂库下降合计接近9万吨，不过北方仍处于累库状态，以西北地区为主，随着钢厂生产恢复，库存压力有所增加；线盘方面，本周厂库继续减少，合计减量5.37万吨，减幅略微扩大。分区域来看，除华中和西北，其他区域钢厂库存均有不同程度减少，西南减幅最大为2.66万吨，其余华东、华北、华南、东北减量依次递减；热卷方面，厂内库存较上周有所上升，主要增幅在北方地区，原因是正常排产。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 81.4679px;" src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/20/1743573.png" width="600" height="81" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;">据Mysteel统计，建材方面，以螺纹钢为例，从三大区域来看，均呈现去库，华东、南方及北方大区环比分别去库3.33万吨、1.91万吨及4.81万吨；从七大区域来看，除华中及东北地区环比增库2.62、1.31万吨外，其他地区均呈现去库，其中华北地区去库幅度最大，周环比去库5.34万吨；热卷方面，从三大区域来看，除华东地区环比增库1.38万吨外，南方和北方大区环比分别去库7.12万吨和2.12万吨；从七大区域来看，除华东地区增库外，其他地区均呈现去库，其中华南地区去库幅度最大，周环比去库6.00万吨。</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 81.4679px;" src="https://img08.mysteelcdn.com/wz/uploaded/steel/2025/03/20/1743574.png" width="600" height="81" /></p> <p>据Mysteel统计，本周五大品种库存总量为1788.09万吨，周环比降41.53万吨，降幅为2.3%。其中建材库存周环比降26.89万吨，降幅2.6%；板材库存周环比降14.64万吨，降幅1.9%。上期库存总量为1829.62万吨，周环比降30.67万吨，降幅1.6%，其中建材库存周环比降9.83万吨，降幅0.95%；板材库存周环比降20.84万吨，降幅2.63%。</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>【附件：五大品种周消费量季节性变化】</strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 600px; height: 540.278px;" 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