Tennessee's Missing Voters: A State and County Analysis

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field--label-hidden field__item">Policy Briefs</div> <div class="field field--name-field-publication-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden field__item">October 8, 2024</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h1> Tennessee's Missing Voters: A State and County Analysis </h1> </div> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-field-intro field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p><span class="TextRun MacChromeBold SCXW61817274 BCX0 NormalTextRun SpellingErrorV2Themed CommentHighlightRest" lang="EN-US">Dēmos</span><span class="TextRun MacChromeBold SCXW61817274 BCX0 NormalTextRun CommentHighlightRest" lang="EN-US"> and the grassroots mobilization nonprofit Organize Tennessee analyze who Tennessee’s nearly 2.3 million “missing voters” are and why they are absent or unrepresented at the ballot box.</span><span class="EOP CommentHighlightPipeRestV2 SCXW61817274 BCX0"> </span></p></div> <div class="field field--name-field-author field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">Demos</div> <div class="field__item">Organize Tennessee</div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-related-files field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"> <div class="field__item"> <a href="/sites/default/files/2024-09/Demos_Organize_Tennessee_Missing_Voter_Report_FA.pdf" type="application/pdf" target="_blank"> Download the Full PDF </a> </div> </div> </div> <div class="hero-right"> <div class="field field--name-field-hero-image field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__item"><article class="media media--type-image media--view-mode-publication-header"> <div class="field field--name-field-media-image field--type-image field--label-visually_hidden"> <div class="field__label visually-hidden">Image</div> <div class="field__item"> <picture> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/200_wide/public/2024-09/Screenshot%202024-09-20%20at%201.37.22%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=wDcMjqXC 1x" media="(min-width: 2000px)" type="image/png" width="200" height="258"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/200_wide/public/2024-09/Screenshot%202024-09-20%20at%201.37.22%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=wDcMjqXC 1x" media="(min-width: 1442px) and (max-width: 1999px)" type="image/png" width="200" height="258"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/200_wide/public/2024-09/Screenshot%202024-09-20%20at%201.37.22%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=wDcMjqXC 1x" media="(min-width: 1025px) and (max-width: 1441px)" type="image/png" width="200" height="258"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/200_wide/public/2024-09/Screenshot%202024-09-20%20at%201.37.22%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=wDcMjqXC 1x" media="(min-width: 769px) and (max-width: 1024px)" type="image/png" width="200" height="258"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/200_wide/public/2024-09/Screenshot%202024-09-20%20at%201.37.22%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=wDcMjqXC 1x" media="(min-width: 501px) and (max-width: 768px)" type="image/png" width="200" height="258"/> <source srcset="/sites/default/files/styles/200_wide/public/2024-09/Screenshot%202024-09-20%20at%201.37.22%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=wDcMjqXC 1x" media="(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 500px)" type="image/png" width="200" height="258"/> <img loading="eager" width="200" height="258" src="/sites/default/files/styles/200_wide/public/2024-09/Screenshot%202024-09-20%20at%201.37.22%E2%80%AFPM.png?itok=wDcMjqXC" alt="Tennessee's Missing Voters" typeof="foaf:Image" /> </picture> </div> </div> </article> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="content-wrapper"> <div class="grid"> <div class="sidebar"> <a id="toc-mobile-toggle" class="toc-toggle" aria-label="toggle the table of contents" role="navigation" tabindex="0"> <div class="toc-toggle-wrapper"> <span aria-hidden="false">Table of Contents</span> </div> </a> <div id="sidebar-wrapper"> <div id="ts-toc-wrapper"> <div class="toc-title"> IN THIS PUBLICATION </div> <div id="ts-toc"> </div> </div> <div id="non-toc"> <div class="field field--name-share-buttons field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"> <div class="a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 share-buttons"> <a class="a2a_button_facebook" href="#" role="button" aria-label="Share this page on Facebook"></a> <a class="a2a_button_twitter" href="#" role="button" aria-label="Share this page on Twitter"></a> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-related-issues field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Issues</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/search?keys=&f%5B0%5D=search_issue%3ADemocracy">Democracy</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/search?keys=&f%5B0%5D=search_issue%3AVoting%20Rights%20%26%20Access">Voting Rights & Access</a></div> </div> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-related-articles field--type-entity-reference field--label-above"> <div class="field__label">Related</div> <div class="field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="node node--type-publication node--view-mode-small-teaser ds-1col clearfix"> <div class="field field--name-node-title field--type-ds field--label-hidden field__item"><h2> <a href="/policy-briefs/understanding-flawed-data-methodologies-underlying-mass-voter-challenges" hreflang="en">Understanding the Flawed Data Methodologies Underlying Mass Voter Challenges</a> </h2> </div> <div class="date-author"> <div class="field field--name-field-publication-type field--type-list-string field--label-hidden field__item">Policy Briefs</div> <div class="field field--name-field-publication-date field--type-datetime field--label-hidden field__item"><time datetime="2024-09-18T12:00:00Z" class="datetime">September 18, 2024</time> </div> <div class="field field--name-field-author field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item">All Voting is Local</div> <div class="field__item">Demos</div> <div class="field__item">Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law</div> <div class="field__item">Voices Vote Now</div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="main-content"> <div class="field field--name-field-sections field--type-entity-reference-revisions field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"> <div class="paragraph paragraph--type--text-block paragraph--view-mode--default"> <div class="field field--name-field-paragraph-title field--type-string field--label-hidden field__item">Introduction</div> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-field-paragraph-teaser field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Over 5.3 million Tennessee residents are part of the Citizen Age Voting Population (CVAP),<span class="footnote__citations-wrapper"><a class="footnote__citation js-footnote-citation" id="footnoteref1_MxjcijSHZM8IqRKoGVlsyXckwtG4ZXL3Nxi8Bpocakg_z2X4qLdi1owc" title="U.S. Census Bureau, “Citizen, Voting-Age Population by Selected Characteristics,” American Community Survey, ACS 1-Year Estimates Subject Tables, Table S2901, 2022, accessed June 25, 2024, https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2022.S2901?q=tennessee." href="#footnote1_MxjcijSHZM8IqRKoGVlsyXckwtG4ZXL3Nxi8Bpocakg_z2X4qLdi1owc">1</a></span> yet more than 2.3 million eligible Tennesseans are what we describe as “missing voters”: U.S. citizens aged 18 and over who have not voted in the past three general federal elections. Year after year, Tennessee has some of the lowest voter turnout in the country. In the 2020 presidential election, only four states had lower turnout.<span class="footnote__citations-wrapper"><a class="footnote__citation js-footnote-citation" id="footnoteref2_CjuHHCa5oDcXVBr2sUVN0ZeaEzC6duwjJac8J7rMJgQ_jYgwSvpzlV5O" title="MIT Election Data and Science Lab, “Election Performance Index”(2020), https://elections.mit.edu/#/data/map?view=indicatorprofile&indicator=T&year=2020." href="#footnote2_CjuHHCa5oDcXVBr2sUVN0ZeaEzC6duwjJac8J7rMJgQ_jYgwSvpzlV5O">2</a></span> And in 2022, Tennessee had the worst youth voter turnout in the entire country.<span class="footnote__citations-wrapper"><a class="footnote__citation js-footnote-citation" id="footnoteref3_AEzSB0TA5uTd0sRqunmhYYy34nL278oUDLVJp0fXMlE_n3umFh26gBAm" title="CIRCLE, “State-by-State Youth Voter Turnout Data and the Impact of Election Laws in 2022“ (2023), https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/state-state-youth-voter-turnout-data-and-impact-election-laws-2022." href="#footnote3_AEzSB0TA5uTd0sRqunmhYYy34nL278oUDLVJp0fXMlE_n3umFh26gBAm">3</a></span></p><p>Tennessee also lags behind most of the country in voter registration rate, placing in the bottom 10 states as of 2022.<span class="footnote__citations-wrapper"><a class="footnote__citation js-footnote-citation" id="footnoteref4_yFEaMWvBjNJfFmg3iMmmvg0CTRNjOE7gTp0vlUXfL4_nkKqM1h3QHmD" title="MIT, supra note 2." href="#footnote4_yFEaMWvBjNJfFmg3iMmmvg0CTRNjOE7gTp0vlUXfL4_nkKqM1h3QHmD">4</a></span> Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett has blamed low voter turnout on the lack of competitive elections and “people just not placing the priority on going to vote.”<span class="footnote__citations-wrapper"><a class="footnote__citation js-footnote-citation" id="footnoteref5_QlrQULeDX4BXSkMvSC4A-FSeBMzeIiHttYIEF4ucJE_xBl5q9F0jhQn" title="Sarah Best, “Secretary of State Hargett addresses voting integrity, low voter turnout, human trafficking,” Jackson Sun (2024), https://archive.ph/AFQd3#selection-415.0-415.91." href="#footnote5_QlrQULeDX4BXSkMvSC4A-FSeBMzeIiHttYIEF4ucJE_xBl5q9F0jhQn">5</a></span> There’s no doubt the lack of competition is partially to blame.<span class="footnote__citations-wrapper"><a class="footnote__citation js-footnote-citation" id="footnoteref6_xj0tHmdIIA0ZOMqEbW5xcMROyJ8LpgPxYz2drlcdLI_vrquyhkWs6VN" title="Mary Darby, “2022 Election Results,” Think Tennessee (2022), https://www.thinktennessee.org/press/2022-tennessee-electionresults/?emci=13b94ad7-e561-ed11-ade6-14cb651ee1db&emdi=505adcfe-1a62-ed11-ade6-14cb6534a651&ceid=10939981." href="#footnote6_xj0tHmdIIA0ZOMqEbW5xcMROyJ8LpgPxYz2drlcdLI_vrquyhkWs6VN">6</a></span> In the 2022 midterm elections, 53% of state legislator races had no challengers.<span class="footnote__citations-wrapper"><a class="footnote__citation js-footnote-citation" id="footnoteref7_R-evMuEyk1Q1nYEVtOB7Iv2nSIrt1A1obCw-OZlkEXk_olRRwL9Hnrh3" title="Ibid." href="#footnote7_R-evMuEyk1Q1nYEVtOB7Iv2nSIrt1A1obCw-OZlkEXk_olRRwL9Hnrh3">7</a></span> However, our analysis reveals that it’s not the whole story.</p><blockquote class="pull-quote-left"><p>What we found was not a disinterested electorate, but voters thwarted from exercising their fundamental right to vote...</p></blockquote><p>In this report, Dēmos and Organize Tennessee analyze who Tennessee’s 2.3 million “missing voters” are and some of their reasons for not voting. We obtained and analyzed available data on the citizen voting age population in Tennessee, with a focus on 12 specific counties. What we found was not a disinterested electorate, but voters thwarted from exercising their fundamental right to vote due to systemic underinvestment and discriminatory voter suppression laws aimed primarily at Tennessee’s Black and brown communities. Tennessee provides a useful case study in understanding the racialized impacts of structural voter suppression laws and tactics.</p><p>We present our findings in two parts. The first part of this report provides a description of missing voters across Tennessee, an analysis of statewide barriers to voting, and recommendations to increase registration and turnout across the state. In the second part, we examine missing voters in Organize Tennessee’s 12 priority counties (Davidson, Knox, Fayette, Hamilton, Haywood, Madison, Montgomery, Rutherford, Shelby, Sumner, Williamson, and Wilson). This two-part analysis provides a rich account of the structural barriers that are shaping low voter turnout in Tennessee and sheds light on a path forward for Tennessee and other similarly situated states.</p><p class="text-align-center"><a class="button" href="https://www.demos.org/sites/default/files/2024-09/Demos_Organize_Tennessee_Missing_Voter_Report_FA.pdf"><span>Download the full report</span></a></p><ul class="footnotes js-footnotes"><li class="footnotes__item-wrapper js-footnote-reference "><span class="footnotes__item-backlinks"><a class="footnotes__item-backlink" href="#footnoteref1_MxjcijSHZM8IqRKoGVlsyXckwtG4ZXL3Nxi8Bpocakg_z2X4qLdi1owc" id="footnote1_MxjcijSHZM8IqRKoGVlsyXckwtG4ZXL3Nxi8Bpocakg_z2X4qLdi1owc">1</a></span><span class="footnotes__item-text js-footnote-reference-text">U.S. Census Bureau, “Citizen, Voting-Age Population by Selected Characteristics,” <em>American Community Survey, ACS</em> 1-Year Estimates Subject Tables, Table S2901, 2022, accessed June 25, 2024, <a href="https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2022.S2901?q=tennessee"><span class="s1">https://</span>data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2022.S2901?q=tennessee</a><span class="s2">.</span></span></li><li class="footnotes__item-wrapper js-footnote-reference "><span class="footnotes__item-backlinks"><a class="footnotes__item-backlink" href="#footnoteref2_CjuHHCa5oDcXVBr2sUVN0ZeaEzC6duwjJac8J7rMJgQ_jYgwSvpzlV5O" id="footnote2_CjuHHCa5oDcXVBr2sUVN0ZeaEzC6duwjJac8J7rMJgQ_jYgwSvpzlV5O">2</a></span><span class="footnotes__item-text js-footnote-reference-text">MIT Election Data and Science Lab, “Election Performance Index”<span class="s1">(2020), </span><a href="https://elections.mit.edu/#/data/map?view=indicator-profile&indicator=T&year=2020">https://elections.mit.edu/#/data/map?view=indicatorprofile&indicator=T&year=2020</a><span class="s1">.</span></span></li><li class="footnotes__item-wrapper js-footnote-reference "><span class="footnotes__item-backlinks"><a class="footnotes__item-backlink" href="#footnoteref3_AEzSB0TA5uTd0sRqunmhYYy34nL278oUDLVJp0fXMlE_n3umFh26gBAm" id="footnote3_AEzSB0TA5uTd0sRqunmhYYy34nL278oUDLVJp0fXMlE_n3umFh26gBAm">3</a></span><span class="footnotes__item-text js-footnote-reference-text">CIRCLE, “State-by-State Youth Voter Turnout Data and the Impact of <span class="s1">Election Laws in 2022“ (2023), </span><a href="https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/state-state-youth-voter-turnout-data-and-impact-election-laws-2022">https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/state-state-youth-voter-turnout-data-and-impact-election-laws-2022</a><span class="s1">.</span></span></li><li class="footnotes__item-wrapper js-footnote-reference "><span class="footnotes__item-backlinks"><a class="footnotes__item-backlink" href="#footnoteref4_yFEaMWvBjNJfFmg3iMmmvg0CTRNjOE7gTp0vlUXfL4_nkKqM1h3QHmD" id="footnote4_yFEaMWvBjNJfFmg3iMmmvg0CTRNjOE7gTp0vlUXfL4_nkKqM1h3QHmD">4</a></span><span class="footnotes__item-text js-footnote-reference-text">MIT, supra note 2<em>.</em></span></li><li class="footnotes__item-wrapper js-footnote-reference "><span class="footnotes__item-backlinks"><a class="footnotes__item-backlink" href="#footnoteref5_QlrQULeDX4BXSkMvSC4A-FSeBMzeIiHttYIEF4ucJE_xBl5q9F0jhQn" id="footnote5_QlrQULeDX4BXSkMvSC4A-FSeBMzeIiHttYIEF4ucJE_xBl5q9F0jhQn">5</a></span><span class="footnotes__item-text js-footnote-reference-text">Sarah Best, “Secretary of State Hargett addresses voting integrity, low voter turnout, human trafficking,” <em>Jackson Sun </em>(2024), <a href="https://archive.ph/AFQd3#selection-415.0-415.91"><span class="s1">https://archive.</span>ph/AFQd3#selection-415.0-415.91</a><em><span class="s2">.</span></em></span></li><li class="footnotes__item-wrapper js-footnote-reference "><span class="footnotes__item-backlinks"><a class="footnotes__item-backlink" href="#footnoteref6_xj0tHmdIIA0ZOMqEbW5xcMROyJ8LpgPxYz2drlcdLI_vrquyhkWs6VN" id="footnote6_xj0tHmdIIA0ZOMqEbW5xcMROyJ8LpgPxYz2drlcdLI_vrquyhkWs6VN">6</a></span><span class="footnotes__item-text js-footnote-reference-text">Mary Darby, “2022 Election Results,”<em> Think Tennessee </em>(2022), <a href="https://www.thinktennessee.org/blog/2022-tennessee-election-results/?emci=13b94ad7-e561-ed11-ade6-14cb651ee1db&emdi=505adcfe-1a62-ed11-ade6-14cb6534a651&ceid=10939981">https://www.thinktennessee.org/press/2022-tennessee-electionresults/?emci=13b94ad7-e561-ed11-ade6-14cb651ee1db&emdi=505adcfe-1a62-ed11-ade6-14cb6534a651&ceid=10939981</a><em><span class="s1">.</span></em></span></li><li class="footnotes__item-wrapper js-footnote-reference "><span class="footnotes__item-backlinks"><a class="footnotes__item-backlink" href="#footnoteref7_R-evMuEyk1Q1nYEVtOB7Iv2nSIrt1A1obCw-OZlkEXk_olRRwL9Hnrh3" id="footnote7_R-evMuEyk1Q1nYEVtOB7Iv2nSIrt1A1obCw-OZlkEXk_olRRwL9Hnrh3">7</a></span><span class="footnotes__item-text js-footnote-reference-text">Ibid.</span></li></ul></div> 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Tennessee's Missing Voters: A State and County Analysis | Demos